QAV Investing Podcast (Free Edition)

This week: MRC firing their CEO and the price dropped 25% - why didn't we sell?; Lincoln fund results; ASA webinar by James Holt; WAAAX performance 20/21; CVL down 13% since we bought it; MAH groundhog; Flitman model is out; red flags for companies that might go into a trading halt; why share prices fall after they go ex dividend; how TK decides what to sell when he needs to take cash out of his portfolio; commodity stocks sell lines; sentiment for HAW, AGD, AIS; is GCY now a sell?

Selling BEN; calculating portfolio performance; stocks being removed from an index; companies with just six months of data; timing of a new 3pt upturn; share buy backs; DPS vs EPS; qualified audits; Vocus (VOC) takeover; highest QAV scores for ASX200; "GOLDEN CROSS" and "DEATH CROSS”; company notices; balancing out tax payable on portfolio gains.

Workshops; Lemmings; CBA launches BNPL service; CVL below the buy price; STOW = GCY; ZIM audit unsplatted; How Tony decided to sell a stock before the 3PTL; Should we fudge the ECX sell line; EVZ qualified audit; what metrics make up the SD IV; where Tony learnt how to draw 3PTL; gold price chart on index mundi; how the chi x works with or along side the asx.

The 2021 Buffett newsletter; Why we sold HAW & RMS; how important is negative EPS; the impact of unlisted share options; the high prices of the banking sector; Tony’s thoughts on Dividend reinvestment plans; and Tony’s thoughts on investing through high inflation or high interest rate environments such as the 1980s.

Our guest on this episode is American investor David Waldron, author of "Build Wealth With Common Stocks", a great, new introduction to value investing.

Selling HAW. GME lawsuit. Changes to disclosure law. Stock of the week. Return on Equity as a metric. Greater portfolio allocation for higher QAV scores. Trendline buffers. Manually entered scores. BOQ / ME merger. MXI qualified audit. MQG Capital Notes 5 raise. Selling “overvalued” stocks.

The Kohler Effect. Broker Speak. ETF surge. Rudi on Value. The "Buffett indicator”. Stock of the week - BOQ. On market share buyback facilities. GDG and Pooled Development Fund (PDF). Reporting season patterns. MSV impairment announcement. Last Period Analysed column. KRM care and maintenance. VUK sell line.

This is the audio from our 4th Zoom call recorded 9 Feb 2021.

On this episode: GME update; BNPL stocks to be regulated in the UK; Roger Montgomery says there’s no ASX bubble; Stock Doctor commodity pricing; NCK is TK’s Stock of the Week; our portfolio EOM report; VUK cashflow; investing based on commodity prices; if TK would use options; what TK would do if there were two stocks with with similar scores; and is a buy/sell activated if price crosses over the line intra-month?

Hedge funds v Reddit. Ray Dalio on Bitcoin. Tony’s journal entries. Portfolio update. Regression testing Tobias Carlisle. TK's "war stories" of the '99/'00 bubble. CCV 3PTL Sentiment. KRM coming out the naughty corner. SD cashflow. Index Mundi data dates.

This week: ASX lower on fears of US bubble. Howard Marks' capitulation. Ray Dalio's thoughts on a coming US civil war. Using Gross Revenue Growth per Share to value "growth" stocks. Stock of the week - KRM. Using a logarithmic price scale. Tony's thoughts on the Blue-Chippers in the ASX. Determining 'Consistently Increasing Equity'. Defining 'recent positive upturn'. Reasons to sell. NTD and the AUD. Waiting for reporting season. How to apportion additional funds. Sell lines for GGE, NHC, ESS.

In our first episode of 2021, we review our portfolio's CY20 performance; margin loan rates; What TK does on a daily/weekly basis for managing his portfolio; relative QAV performance of large vs mid vs small cap companies; the 'minimum' amount of stock someone just getting started should buy; fudging ECX and VUK; whether or not we should rebalance every so often; Tony’s views on CSL; the recent drop in the prices of some gold miners; understanding the formula in column BK of the master checklist; why companies can have a quality score of >100%; and Stock Doctor problems regarding reporting of director holdings.

This is my highlight show for 2020. Obviously, from an investing perspective, 2020 was all about how to handle Australia's first recession in 30 years and a major market correction, so I've pulled together some of Tony's comments on those subjects in the first half of the year. To finish off the episode, I picked a couple of clips of TK talking about the miracle of compounding and why investors need to embrace volatility.

Our guest on our final episode for 2020 is QAV Club member Damien Parker. He joined us recently to chat about his investing and business career. After a successful career in accounting and a failed property development business, Damien bounced back to write 30 business programs/manuals which grossed $50 million - and created Positive Business, the longest-running newsletter to the small-medium business community in Australia. On this episode he talks about his Business Lessons, why he put up his prices, and why he provided a 120% money-back guarantee.

Last week’s jump in HAW demonstrates why we don’t sell until something hits the 3PTL. Would Tony buy still FMG today? What are the risks of buying stocks with margin loans? Can we fudge the COVID cough? Should we try to predict the future? What about MLD’s capital raising? What happened with MSV? All this and Day Of The Triffids on our last episode for 2020!

Is value investing back? Yes, according to the same people who reported it was dead last year. On this week’s episode we talk about Tony’s “Stock Of The Year”, why we use different Intrinsic Value calculations, whether or not WBC is a buy, whether or not stock consolidations are something to worry about, how Tony uses stop losses, whether or not we should only buy stocks with a significant director interest, how young investors should get started, whether or not it’s better to buy a stock immediately after it has crossed its BUY line, and how much Tony is guided by the financial press.

Can we ignore the COVID cough in our 3PTL charts? What do you do when you own stock in a delisted company? How would we treat Depreciation when thinking about CCP? Does a capital raise cause a bump in the price? Should we listen to Ray Dalio on diversification? Why did Tony buy SFR and not any of the stocks on the Buy list with a much higher QAV score? Should we add a ‘one-month up turn’ to the checklist?

Our guest today is Cameron Williams, sport editor at Channel Nine. You've probably seen him on The Today Show or Nine News. We talk about growing up in Emerald and how he ended up in a sports journalism career. Of course there's some talk about horses and boxing, but there also a fair amount of talk about investing, how to teach your kids about money and entrepreneurship, why he's a fan of Tony's QAV approach - and how TV celebrities buy underwear.

This week we discuss the current status of the Zimplats (ZIM) audit, Tony’s stock of the week, his recent journal entries, Kelly Partners (KPG), GuruFocus, and the KMD CEO.

Our guest is Doug Morris, CEO of Sharesight, the online stock portfolio tracker & reporting tool. We talk about his background, the vision behind Sharesight and how it can simplify investor's lives. Tony is a convert!

This week we talk about why our portfolio lagging the All Ords, sell lines for SSG and ADH, setting up a SMSF, using a DRP, AGM voting rights, qualified audit reports, and regression testing.

Our guest on this episode is Andrew Page, founder of Strawman, an online community of investors providing members with independent, peer-reviewed research and recommendations on the sharemarket. We talk about the thinking behind Strawman and how investors can get the most out of it.

On this week's show we talk about the HAW price drop, a highlight from the ASA conference, the Aurelia Metals capital raising, Tony's stock of the week JBH, and answer some of your questions about UWL, AX1, DKM, SFR, RRL NWH, AKG, how Tony calculates his returns, and why we use a 5 year chart with monthly intervals,

Richard Ivers is Portfolio Manager at Prime Value Asset Management, looking after their small cap portfolio. We chatted with him this week about his approach to finding value stocks.

Tony does a deep dive explanation on the Kelly Criterion and we discuss the challenges in applying it to share investing. We also discuss stocks that briefly stick their head above the ground and then retract them again (aka a groundhog), review Tony's thoughts on average daily trade volume, answer a question about whether SFR is a Schrodinger, talk about how the Reserve Bank's decision to go max QE and the US election might affect the market, review the CAA consolidation and aluminium prices, and Tony's stock pick of the week is KMD.

This week we talk about investing with your Spock brain instead of your McCoy brain, why Tony's Stock of the Week is SFR, why CAA might benefit from rising aluminium prices, how to regression test return on equity, charting the 3PTL lines for LYL, CCV, DKM, RXP, and SUL, and Tony's Melbourne Cup tip!

Our slightly controversial interview with investor Stephen Moriarty, co-author of the book 'Low Rates High Returns'. We discuss his approach to using CAPE ratios and Kelly Criterion to time his investing and determine how much of his portfolio he puts into the market.

Tony discusses the latest movements of "Doctor Copper" and explains why that's important; we talk about CAPE & Kelly and TK explains his recent analysis; and we answer your questions about how we should take into account a company’s level of debt; giving a stock extra points if it is significantly below its Intrinsic Valuation; fudging the buy line for IGN; KCN being cash flow negative; ranking companies higher measured by return on shareholder capital; estimating future profits of growth companies who stop spending money on marketing; and the Health Ratios for MQG.

John Winters is the CEO of Superhero, the latest digital broking app to hit the Australian market, which offers $5 flat rate trades. A few of our listeners were concerned about how Superhero "owns" the stock that you buy through their app, so we invited John on to explain how it works and why we should all relax.

On today's show: AJO quits. Unemployment in Oz at record levels. What does Tony do when he finds a “screaming buy” but can’t understand the underlying rational for the business? Calculating the SSG 3PTL sell price. Net Operating Cashflow vs Net Equity.

Bill Liao was one of Australia's original tech entrepreneurs. Today he's a Partner at SOS Ventures in Ireland where it manages their investments in life science startups. He's also a passionate social entrepreneur who has founded a number of important charities. We invited him on to chat about how a VC values a tech startup.

This week we discuss whether or not high levels of director ownership is good or bad; how Tony manages his portfolio allocation; broker commissions, CRN, HJPN, LAU, and the SAR and NST merger, and more!

This week we talk about why volatility and risk are not the same thing and why we embrace volatility in our portfolio. We also discuss how the ATO treats “investors” versus “traders”, the HAW dividend / capital return, and more!

Lots of talk this week about the new trading app Superhero, how to use Stock Doctor's Relative Strength Indicator, how franking credits work, whether or not Tony waits for an uptick before buying a stock, fudging the covid cough, borrowing funds to invest, and much more.

We start off talking about our Year One result for the QAV portfolio. Is 6.3% a good result in the current market? Questions this week include topics about how quickly Tony sells once a stock breaches its sell line; CCP's price drop; Macquarie Group's (MQG) profit hit; whether or not Tony went to 100% cash after COVID; what to do when half of your buy list have negative sentiment; and the Alacer Gold and SSR Mining merger.

We are very excited today to have Kien Trinh, the Head of Research from Lincoln Indicators (the company behind Stock Doctor) on our show! Kien talked to us about why Stock Doctor is such a powerful tool for serious investors.

This is the audio transcript of a Zoom group chat Tony and I did with some of our QAV Club members on 7 Sept 2020. Lots of great questions were answered.

Tony refines what he means by “the highest peak”; Steve Mabb explains his recent 3PTL experiment; how Tony would invest an influx of cash; selling GEAR and buying ECX; and running through TK's journal entries for the week. In overtime we discuss Japanese knives, David Lee Roth, Charlie Brown, Kill Bill and other stuff unrelated to investing.

Should we buy stocks on our buy list from the Top Down or the Bottom Up? That's the question we try to answer this week. Apart from that, we're delving into some questions of my own about his checklist, as well as listener questions about NTD, FMG, CCP and, in overtime (that's what I'm calling the QAV Club section now), Tony walks us through how he updates the checklist.

This week's episode contains extra investing fudge! We discuss Wilshire GDP / Shiller PE / CAPE ratios, what red flags to look for in company reports, how to score a New 3pt Upturn, Shortman, Warren Buffett's secret, and Tony discusses some of the latest companies that he has evaluated.

Michael Goldberg, one of the principals and founders of Collins St Value Fund, was kind enough to talk to us for 90 minutes yesterday about how CSVF became one of the best performing funds in Australia, achieving a 13.5 percent return in 2019-20 compared with the ASX 200 Index which was down 7.7 percent.

Questions this week about NWS; Buffett buying into Barrick Gold; what a stapled security is; what Tony's worst returning year was; whether or not we can invest in Apollo (ATL) again; and Tony's general process during the reporting period.

Question this week include how Tony uses the "most undervalued ASX20 stock" strategy; whether or not ATS being a Schrodinger makes it a sell; and 3PTL help on KCN, GGUS and FMG. We also discuss Tony's recent journal entries, Sam Elliott's mustache, Allison Janney the horse, Hamilton the Musical, and Tony's Rain Man-esque memory for details.

On this show we drink scotch and answer questions about sentiment, bad news, CCP's Operating Cash Flow, the sell price for TRS and investing in borderline star stocks.

We chat about a couple of recent articles (see below) and then talk about Tony’s recent alerts involving LYL and KCN. Next we run AMI through the QAV Checklist and answer some questions about why the “buy list” is so large and whether or not we should/could shorten it using Stock Doctor filters.

Another 90 minute Club episode this week! Investor, “unemployed shoe salesman” and new board member of The Australian Shareholders Association, Steven Mabb, joins us to talk about the value that the ASA brings to retail shareholders and tries to sell Tony on becoming a member. Then we get into this week’s questions, including how long Tony waits before selling a “non-performing” stock; whether or not TK would sell a stock in his portfolio because it’s QAV score dropped below 0.1; whether or not TK would wait to see what the US market does before he buys something locally; and whether or not he has tried applying Benjamin Graham's formula for capitalization rates for growth stocks.

On this episode we talk about why we are not trying to compete with APT investors; Tony’s recent stock buys and analysis; how he uses his “watch list” and why we’ve changed its name to the “buy list”; we we’re still manually calculating the price-to-cash ratio instead of using Stock Doctor’s figure; improved wording on how to draw a three point trend SELL line; and why sometimes a stock with great numbers might have a falling knife.

Tony's stock broker of 25+ years, Alex Hay, a partner at broking firm EL&C Baillieu, joins us again today to talk about the different kinds of buy & sell orders and how to use them. Outside of that, Tony and I also talk about our dummy portfolio, which made it back into the black, and some excel formula errors we've picked up recently in the checklist.

Here's our recent chat with Tobias Carlisle, author of several books on value investing, including 'The Acquirer's Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market', and the managing director of The Aquirers Fund.