QAV Investing Podcast (Free Edition)

This week we have some big news, talk about some minor errors we’ve fixed in the checklist and bible, then Tony does a pulled pork on COG, we explain ASX’s cash flow anomaly from last week, Tony talk about some recent regression testing he has done on selling when the QAV score hits 0.5 and on using ROE in our checklist, Shell scenario planning frameworks, whether or not we should discount sentiment for companies with a small float, which part of the cycle Tony thinks the market is in and whether or not it matters, MYE’s falling QAV score, the sell line for CDD, the buy line for CAA, and how Tony treats REITs.

This week we pull the pork on EHL, and talk about JBH, QBE, copper, AMP, Warren Buffett’s goat, URW, SWM, HUM, RMS, BHP, ASX, BFG, MIL, ASB, MHJ, we chat with young investor Lachie Duncan, and answer a bunch of your questions.

On this episode we talk about finding ASX300 stocks, CGF is the pulled pork, range trading, buying and selling during reporting season, Rule #2, calculating portfolio returns for volatile portfolios, natural gas, palladium, nickel and aluminium stocks, taking quality of management into consideration, the CBA off market buy back, the MXI 5:1 consolidation, sell lines for stocks going ex-dividend and our TV, movie and music recommendations!

Today Tony is talking a lot about commodity prices and what their decline means for our portfolio. Iron ore, gold, copper and platinum are all in decline. We also talk about the “Dogs of QAV” model, SKT, RIO, CBA, DSK, Superhero's performance issues, and explain what a “Josephine” is.

This week we talk about why MML crashed after it announced its quarterly results. How Tony uses “Rule #1” to avoid losing money. Lots of interesting things going on with oil at the moment. How mergers and acquisitions can be a signal of late market cycle behaviour. Why FMG’s huge dividend payout is a signal of things changing with the company. RIO’s results in Stock Doctor. How Tony updates his scorecard in the early stages of reporting season. His pulled pork this week is CCV. How to calculate the performance of a portfolio with a lot of capital in and out flows. And the idea of adding ROE>20% as an item to the checklist.

This week we talk about MIL’s “Emphasis of Matter”, MXI’s trading halt, MTO’s sell line, MML’s sell line, ABA’s buy line, WWG’s QAV score, investing in QAV to build up a deposit for a property, Tony’s pulled pork is HZN, CBA’s sell line, MQG’s sell line, the oil price’s sell line, ANZ’s sell line, tailwinds, using EV/EBITDA, XRO’s sell line, how Tony defines an uptick, and our guest today (club edition only) is Alison Harrington, Brisbane Convenor and Education Officer Qld for the Australian Shareholders' Association, who talks about women in investing.

Amendments to the 3PTL wording in the bible; how to calculate performance of a volatile portfolio; creating wealth by gearing a property; updating your 3PTL alerts; the pulled pork on SUN; sell lines for banks and other stocks with high QAV scores; KRM is stopping gold production, what does that mean for investors; C6C has dropped, when do we sell?

Another long episode (1.5 hours)! We talk about our performance vs the top funds; Buffett’s ABCs; Why TK bought gold miners over retailers last week; the idea of a “second peak”; HUM’s exposure to Forum Finance; the performance of the 2017 Dogs; a deep dive on MML and MIL; how Rule #1 works; how TK would invest if he was 25 again; whether or not I should sell MYR; copper physical vs futures; and how to spot “bad news” during reporting.

This week we discuss our EOFY result (48%); decide to sell VUK again; MYR and Solly Lew; SOTW is GRR; the Sell price for BCN; contrarian investor Michael O’Higgins’s ‘Dogs of the Dow’ strategy; Duncan and The Mystery of The Reducing Scores; the Copper and Coal commodity prices; the chart for SUL; how to understand IMA’s market depth report; Magellan’s intention to transition its High Conviction Trust listed investment company into an active exchange-traded fund; would apply 3PTL to a chart given the effect of a consolidation like for COG; and the sell lines for banks.

A massive two hour episode (for club members) this week! We talk about Gary’s Strawman results, a final portfolio update for the FY, Tony’s SOTW (BCN), Dylan the Intern’s latest modelling on flatlines, the chart for MIL, why we sold ATL, lots of questions about using Simple Moving Averages, thoughts on DSK, why Buffett still owns Coke, and then we finish with an interview with club member James Oliver who is an auditor with a major accounting firm, and talks us through what we should be watching for when it comes to qualified audits.

With the ASX in free fall, we talked about ATL’s sell line, selling VUK, some new stocks to hit my scorecard, including CLX, NGE, VTG and SHJ, Tony’s SOTW (KSC), comparing using MACD as a charting tool to the 3PTL, more thinking about how to use the new flatline rule, how to use indicators to pick a conservative stop loss, routines for maintaining a portfolio, and the Woolworths demerger.

We debate the 3PTLs for ATL and AGD, talk about the recent jumps in price for AIS and CGS, the ANZ price, the lag in dividend payments, the results of Tony’s recent analysis of the performance of dividend stocks in the QAV portfolio, why fudge is science, the poultry price on indexmundi, how to manually replace the SD financial health rating, some formula changes to the the TK Master Spreadsheet, and whether or not the GCY announcement of higher costs is a big enough red flag to make Tony want to sell.

We chat with James Holt, Director, Investment Solutions at Perpetual, then get into news and Q&A. This week Tony answers your questions about how companies set their share price for a float, the application of Rule #1 vs. waiting for the sell line, shares that don’t seem to register any trade movements, how to build a QAV portfolio more weighted to dividend paying stocks, whether or not to eliminate existing holdings in ETFs from a QAV portfolio, and whether Tony has ever looked at a chart and thought I'm not buying that even though the numbers are good.

This week we’re talking about why we sold MRC and bought ATL; FMG is down and Tony’s current thinking about commodity 3PTLs; why we’re taking ETFs and LICs out of QAV; late stage market behaviour; SOTW; why we allow stocks in the scorecard with a quality score below 75%; why HUM is on the scorecard; if Myer is a Schrodinger; Ray Dalio’s thoughts on the stage of the market and how it applies to QAV; if it’s too late to buy into AIS; and why the score for “PE<Yield” should be a blank if the PE is blank.

In the first half of this episode we're joined by Navarre Trousselot &#038; Thom Benny from Navexa, an online portfolio platform, who tell us a bit about the vision for their product and what they've seen investors doing lately. Then we talk about minimising brokerage fees, building a portfolio with lump sums, the 3PTL on VDGR, Tony's latest thinking about commodity sell lines, how to deal with stocks that cross their sell line but are also at the top of the scorecard, and what's going on with iron ore producers.

We talk about the bank results; tech wreck; Buffett breaking the NASDAQ; Increasing Net Equity v NEPS; re-naming the “buy list”; LICS and NTA; Price to Operating Cashflow for ETFs; Tony’s performance today vs when he had a smaller portfolio; CCV’s buy line; where the Top 200 ASX stocks came from; graphic positive sentiment for see-saw stocks; the gold cycle; and ATL’s debt levels.

This week we recorded while I was staying with Tony down at Cape Schanck! We talked about the collapse of BPT, why ATL is our SOTW, the highlights of the Berkshire Hathaway 2021 AGM, the importance of price to cashflow in our checklist, Stock Doctor's coverage of A2 Milk, why companies issue new shares at a steep discount, MML's 3PTL buy line, gold miners and market cycles, why BOQ dropped off the buy list, and then I get Tony to tell the story about how he bought his Cape Schanck property 22 years ago using his winnings from winning trivia competitions on TV and radio. Finally, I passed the microphone around after our QAV Club dinner in Melbourne and asked the folks there to talk about what they have learned from the podcast.

On this episode, we talk about our portfolio performance, SOTW, Colin Nicholson’s three market stages, Jack Bogle’s fourth law of motion, if SSG is a sell, the value of private banking, the idea of using increasing equity per share, and investing in Early Stage Innovation Companies.

This week we chat with Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer at 1851 Capital and then get into our regular show, where we discuss the MRC collapse, the CAA takeover bid, Geoff Wilson’s LIC strategy, our SOTW (DSK), if MYR is close to a sell, DKM dropping off the buy list, directors transactions, IV2 challenger strategy, why research firms suspend coverage on stocks, using (ATR) average true range multiples to set trailing stops, current US valuations, and whether or not TRS as a recent positive upturn.

Regression testing with Dylan the intern; “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation”; SOTW: MXI; Tony’s thoughts on investing in a NASDAQ 100 ETF; should keep our AGD shares; Why did TK skip past MYR on the buy list; capital raising only to institutional investors; How AGMs fit into Tony's investment strategy; looking at a Depth of a share chart; postponing a decision to buy a share based on the AFR headlines; a checklist for reporting season; how the current buy list compares to other periods; QAV book club.

Ray Dalio on BTC. Lou Simpson’s investing philosophy. The proposed TLS break-up. Selling low dividend payers. Tolerance for older data. KRMs health score. 3PTL for ADH, HLA &#038; HVN. Tony's view on the Iron trend line. Replacing IV1 and IV2 with PE ratios.

This week: MRC firing their CEO and the price dropped 25% - why didn't we sell?; Lincoln fund results; ASA webinar by James Holt; WAAAX performance 20/21; CVL down 13% since we bought it; MAH groundhog; Flitman model is out; red flags for companies that might go into a trading halt; why share prices fall after they go ex dividend; how TK decides what to sell when he needs to take cash out of his portfolio; commodity stocks sell lines; sentiment for HAW, AGD, AIS; is GCY now a sell?

Selling BEN; calculating portfolio performance; stocks being removed from an index; companies with just six months of data; timing of a new 3pt upturn; share buy backs; DPS vs EPS; qualified audits; Vocus (VOC) takeover; highest QAV scores for ASX200; "GOLDEN CROSS" and "DEATH CROSS”; company notices; balancing out tax payable on portfolio gains.

Workshops; Lemmings; CBA launches BNPL service; CVL below the buy price; STOW = GCY; ZIM audit unsplatted; How Tony decided to sell a stock before the 3PTL; Should we fudge the ECX sell line; EVZ qualified audit; what metrics make up the SD IV; where Tony learnt how to draw 3PTL; gold price chart on index mundi; how the chi x works with or along side the asx.

The 2021 Buffett newsletter; Why we sold HAW & RMS; how important is negative EPS; the impact of unlisted share options; the high prices of the banking sector; Tony’s thoughts on Dividend reinvestment plans; and Tony’s thoughts on investing through high inflation or high interest rate environments such as the 1980s.

Our guest on this episode is American investor David Waldron, author of "Build Wealth With Common Stocks", a great, new introduction to value investing.

Selling HAW. GME lawsuit. Changes to disclosure law. Stock of the week. Return on Equity as a metric. Greater portfolio allocation for higher QAV scores. Trendline buffers. Manually entered scores. BOQ / ME merger. MXI qualified audit. MQG Capital Notes 5 raise. Selling “overvalued” stocks.

The Kohler Effect. Broker Speak. ETF surge. Rudi on Value. The "Buffett indicator”. Stock of the week - BOQ. On market share buyback facilities. GDG and Pooled Development Fund (PDF). Reporting season patterns. MSV impairment announcement. Last Period Analysed column. KRM care and maintenance. VUK sell line.

This is the audio from our 4th Zoom call recorded 9 Feb 2021.

On this episode: GME update; BNPL stocks to be regulated in the UK; Roger Montgomery says there’s no ASX bubble; Stock Doctor commodity pricing; NCK is TK’s Stock of the Week; our portfolio EOM report; VUK cashflow; investing based on commodity prices; if TK would use options; what TK would do if there were two stocks with with similar scores; and is a buy/sell activated if price crosses over the line intra-month?

Hedge funds v Reddit. Ray Dalio on Bitcoin. Tony’s journal entries. Portfolio update. Regression testing Tobias Carlisle. TK's "war stories" of the '99/'00 bubble. CCV 3PTL Sentiment. KRM coming out the naughty corner. SD cashflow. Index Mundi data dates.

This week: ASX lower on fears of US bubble. Howard Marks' capitulation. Ray Dalio's thoughts on a coming US civil war. Using Gross Revenue Growth per Share to value "growth" stocks. Stock of the week - KRM. Using a logarithmic price scale. Tony's thoughts on the Blue-Chippers in the ASX. Determining 'Consistently Increasing Equity'. Defining 'recent positive upturn'. Reasons to sell. NTD and the AUD. Waiting for reporting season. How to apportion additional funds. Sell lines for GGE, NHC, ESS.

In our first episode of 2021, we review our portfolio's CY20 performance; margin loan rates; What TK does on a daily/weekly basis for managing his portfolio; relative QAV performance of large vs mid vs small cap companies; the 'minimum' amount of stock someone just getting started should buy; fudging ECX and VUK; whether or not we should rebalance every so often; Tony’s views on CSL; the recent drop in the prices of some gold miners; understanding the formula in column BK of the master checklist; why companies can have a quality score of >100%; and Stock Doctor problems regarding reporting of director holdings.

This is my highlight show for 2020. Obviously, from an investing perspective, 2020 was all about how to handle Australia's first recession in 30 years and a major market correction, so I've pulled together some of Tony's comments on those subjects in the first half of the year. To finish off the episode, I picked a couple of clips of TK talking about the miracle of compounding and why investors need to embrace volatility.

Our guest on our final episode for 2020 is QAV Club member Damien Parker. He joined us recently to chat about his investing and business career. After a successful career in accounting and a failed property development business, Damien bounced back to write 30 business programs/manuals which grossed $50 million - and created Positive Business, the longest-running newsletter to the small-medium business community in Australia. On this episode he talks about his Business Lessons, why he put up his prices, and why he provided a 120% money-back guarantee.

Last week’s jump in HAW demonstrates why we don’t sell until something hits the 3PTL. Would Tony buy still FMG today? What are the risks of buying stocks with margin loans? Can we fudge the COVID cough? Should we try to predict the future? What about MLD’s capital raising? What happened with MSV? All this and Day Of The Triffids on our last episode for 2020!

Is value investing back? Yes, according to the same people who reported it was dead last year. On this week’s episode we talk about Tony’s “Stock Of The Year”, why we use different Intrinsic Value calculations, whether or not WBC is a buy, whether or not stock consolidations are something to worry about, how Tony uses stop losses, whether or not we should only buy stocks with a significant director interest, how young investors should get started, whether or not it’s better to buy a stock immediately after it has crossed its BUY line, and how much Tony is guided by the financial press.

Can we ignore the COVID cough in our 3PTL charts? What do you do when you own stock in a delisted company? How would we treat Depreciation when thinking about CCP? Does a capital raise cause a bump in the price? Should we listen to Ray Dalio on diversification? Why did Tony buy SFR and not any of the stocks on the Buy list with a much higher QAV score? Should we add a ‘one-month up turn’ to the checklist?

Our guest today is Cameron Williams, sport editor at Channel Nine. You've probably seen him on The Today Show or Nine News. We talk about growing up in Emerald and how he ended up in a sports journalism career. Of course there's some talk about horses and boxing, but there also a fair amount of talk about investing, how to teach your kids about money and entrepreneurship, why he's a fan of Tony's QAV approach - and how TV celebrities buy underwear.

This week we discuss the current status of the Zimplats (ZIM) audit, Tony’s stock of the week, his recent journal entries, Kelly Partners (KPG), GuruFocus, and the KMD CEO.

Our guest is Doug Morris, CEO of Sharesight, the online stock portfolio tracker &#038; reporting tool. We talk about his background, the vision behind Sharesight and how it can simplify investor's lives. Tony is a convert!

This week we talk about why our portfolio lagging the All Ords, sell lines for SSG and ADH, setting up a SMSF, using a DRP, AGM voting rights, qualified audit reports, and regression testing.

Our guest on this episode is Andrew Page, founder of Strawman, an online community of investors providing members with independent, peer-reviewed research and recommendations on the sharemarket. We talk about the thinking behind Strawman and how investors can get the most out of it.

On this week's show we talk about the HAW price drop, a highlight from the ASA conference, the Aurelia Metals capital raising, Tony's stock of the week JBH, and answer some of your questions about UWL, AX1, DKM, SFR, RRL NWH, AKG, how Tony calculates his returns, and why we use a 5 year chart with monthly intervals,

Richard Ivers is Portfolio Manager at Prime Value Asset Management, looking after their small cap portfolio. We chatted with him this week about his approach to finding value stocks.

Tony does a deep dive explanation on the Kelly Criterion and we discuss the challenges in applying it to share investing. We also discuss stocks that briefly stick their head above the ground and then retract them again (aka a groundhog), review Tony's thoughts on average daily trade volume, answer a question about whether SFR is a Schrodinger, talk about how the Reserve Bank's decision to go max QE and the US election might affect the market, review the CAA consolidation and aluminium prices, and Tony's stock pick of the week is KMD.

This week we talk about investing with your Spock brain instead of your McCoy brain, why Tony's Stock of the Week is SFR, why CAA might benefit from rising aluminium prices, how to regression test return on equity, charting the 3PTL lines for LYL, CCV, DKM, RXP, and SUL, and Tony's Melbourne Cup tip!

Our slightly controversial interview with investor Stephen Moriarty, co-author of the book 'Low Rates High Returns'. We discuss his approach to using CAPE ratios and Kelly Criterion to time his investing and determine how much of his portfolio he puts into the market.