QAV Investing Podcast (Free Edition)

This week on QAV: Market hit all time high, then retreated… because of McDonalds in Gaza?!; Portfolio report; pulled pork on Metcash (MTS). In the Club edition: CCP results and share price; System Justification Theory; Elon’s Tesla strategy; Jordan’s regression testing; hedging QAV with Growth stocks (aka the Anti-QAV); RBA leaves rates unchanged; FPR operating cash flow.

This week we’re talking about: Munger’s final portfolio, Base-Rate Neglect, Pulled Pork - TLS Plus, only on the Club edition: Evergrande liquidation, Aluminium and CAA, Fund managers reveal their big investment mistakes, Crypto still isn’t legit, Reporting season about to start, and using Renko chart to track Duratec’s decline.

On this week’s show: Retail traders are suffering from fatigue; Lithium and tech stocks crashing; AI means the cost of intelligence will plummet. Club edition also includes: Why TK keeps his mortgage facility open; Pulled pork on FND.

Market and portfolio updates, Brent’s secret QAV tweaks which delivered his terrific results, and GNC vs Wheat. In the Club episode, Pulled pork on Brambles (BXB), STOCKOPEDIA NAPS, the “Curse of Knowledge”, more discussion on Average True Range.

TK’s back to talk about: "Santa Claus" rallies, a Pulled pork on Resimac RMC, and using an ATR stop loss. In our club episode, we're also talking about how to score N/A on Health Stable or Increasing, and What I Learned About Investing from Darwin by Pulak Prasad, WHC & Thermal Coal, Skill Compensation, Dogs of the Dow, and the proposed Woodside/Santos merger.

On our first show of 2024, I’m covering how the market and our portfolio ended 2023, adding GEM back to a portfolio, TK has a pulled pork on COF, and I talk to ChatGPT about the role the USD being the world’s reserve currency plays in the strength of the US economy.

On our last episode for 2023, I’m flying solo, but I do have a pre-recorded pulled pork from TK on ERD, and I’m also talking about the sudden falls last week by CLX, MTO, and ASG, as well as the first of Morgan Housel’s “100 LITTLE IDEAS”. Only in the Club edition: I asked ChatGPT to pick out a couple of highlights from our 2023 podcasts for the recap.

On this episode: The AORD is having a good Xmas (so far), STW and AFI above their buy lines, our portfolios are doing well, pulled pork on CXO (Core Lithium) Club: new Commodity Status history feature, PRN poll, FPR net operating cf, CCP on a tear, talking about REITs, pulled pork on CXO (Core Lithium) and why BFG is having a run.

On this episode we’re discussing Charlie Munger, pulled pork on ING, and if QAV is based on momentum and minimizing losses. In the club edition only: PRN’s guidance, ATP’s bump, ADT survey results, portfolio updates, RBA rate hold, MMS losing a govt contract, ASX 200 stocks with single-digit P/Es, thoughts about VYS giving their Managing Director an Interest Free loan.

On this week's episode, I do a farewell to the late, great Charlie Munger, and in the Club episode, TK takes us through the analysis he and Ryan did about Rule 1 and buying from the top or bottom of our list.

This week we're talking about how we assess management quality, how to invest if you have a lumpy income, a pulled pork on MMS, and (only in the Club edition) Ridley Scott's appalling Napoleon film.

This week in the free episode we’re talking about how immigration is driving inflation, last week’s drama with KAR and NTD, how Oil briefly became a sell, breaking down BPT’s revenue from oil, the de-stapling of ABG and ASK. In the Club episode, we also discuss the CVL pulled pork curse, TK’s thoughts on the ABB SPP, a pulled pork on DGL and Berkshire’s Apple purchases.

This episode: Australian income drops, Munger says we need to buy tech stocks, Pulled Pork on CVL. Club edition only: ASX historical average 13.2%, Iron ore and China, HESTA fined by ASIC, ANZ's results lead to drop, how to deal with a situation when a buy list stock is in play, Interest rate rise means a change to IV value, MQG did not take an impairment, using Tradingview for commodities, and a refresher on what stocks to sell when you need cash.

ASX making us feel punch drunk; QAN revolt; MQG profit drop; pulled pork SSM; Club edition only: JHG delisting; Light Sells analysis; new survey on ADT; SSR down; FPR up; Buffett’s cash pile; RBA meets; cup tips!

Commodity updates; FMG red flag status; how share incentive plans work; In the Club edition: Pulled pork DTL; what TK looks for when he does a pulled pork.

We're in a technical correction; staying fully invested; CCP collapse; new 3PTL sells number jumped this week; Pulled pork RRL; the performance of AFI. In the Club edition only: Is being rich a superpower?; staying enthusiastic during a long downturn; how TK differentiates between quality and value; the value/risks of a concentrated 10 stock portfolio; WWTD if he had cash but a full portfolio?

"This time it really might be different” says Marks; Portfolio update by Market Cap; Pulled Pork on PRN; In the Club edition, we’re also talking about: Gold is a buy; PGH 2BL example; Chuck Feeney died; Joe Aston's final Rear Window; Has TK found a maximum size where a portfolio stops getting 'QAV like returns’?; Imagine the markets were to theoretically close for 10 years…

The RBA holds rates; Israel Gaza and oil; Dumb Money v Wall Street; Joe Aston quits; HVN SD update; Red October; Pulled Pork on SXE; Quality Score vs QAV Score; How TK manages market downturns when leveraged; how TK plans to live off his portfolio in retirement in down years; why was beginning of month chosen for josephines and not a rolling 30 day price; 'value trap' tool; the performance of our personal portfolios for this financial year vs the DP; performance of high v low ADT stocks.

Chris Batchelor from Stockopedia talks to us about how their product can help Australian (and international) investors make better investing decisions. Then in the Club edition, TK and I talk about the market rout, RBA and interest rates, portfolio performance, Woodside and Richard Goyder, the double loop concept in retail, putting Super into housing, Josephines and dividends, and the Murdochs.

Rupert’s retirement, YAL PROPCAF update, portfolio report, pulled pork on KAR, using 3PTL with the ASX.

CAGR reporting, YAL’s PrOpCaF, US Portfolio, SGM market update, Lithium a Sell for PLS, Viva Energy & Vitol, QAN troubles, Mortgage rate change 6.58%, CCP now ex-div, Brisbane catch up, Pulled Pork: WGX, borrowing against a mortgage to invest in shares, ex-dividend and Josephine status, and charting our buy list.

Steven Mabb, Chairman of the Australian Shareholders Association (and QAV Club member) returns to share his thoughts on proxy votes, QANTAS, Nick Scali, EML, Virgin UK, FMG, REM reports, AGMs, director workloads, auditors becoming board members, the value of independent directors, gender representation on boards, and much more.

Commodity Updates, WSI crash, Australia spooks global LNG markets, Buffett says he could make 50% return per year, FMG CFO quits, QAN in a bit of a pickle, Pulled pork on AIZ, are the sins of a former CEO carried forward, and an update from Tony on the use of RENKO charts.

Wheat is a sell; FMG is a red flag; PLS results and crash; AFG results and crash; the cost of timing the market; great guns; QAN results; Pulled Pork MAH; where the money goes; beta volatility and QAV; US investors who claim their methodology returns 30% - 60% pa.

This week on the show: PRN reports great results and crashes; China’s slowdown; US bond yields; SGM results; Pulled pork WHC; new mortgage rate; TK’s thoughts on Imugene (IMU) and share placements at a significant discount.

Fitch downgrades the US, Lowe has new ideas about the RBA, NCK beats the pulled pork curse, MYR rebounds, iron ore falls (every October?), Baby Bunting pulled pork, and problems with Updater’s delisting.

The market’s had a rough week, MYR collapses on good results, business confidence is up while consumer confidence is down, coking coal isn’t a sell after all, pulled pork on NCK, possible changes to Rule 1, BBN’s performance, and adding buybacks to the checklist.

This week we’re talking about what the CCP and TRS share price movements mean for the economy, the wheat price, the ‘year of the bond’, the difference between ETFs and LICs, and we have our interview with listener Brent Sweeney who recently attended the Berkshire Hathaway AGM in Omaha, Nebraska!

This week in the Club edition we’re talking about movements in Gold and Lithium prices, why Super Funds suck, why the ASX is in a “dead zone”, the big week of company reporting coming up, our Stockopedia trial, a pulled pork on KSL, URW selling down US malls, RIO in recycling push, technical indicators, and what TK thinks about companies with lots of shares held in escrow.

Cameron’s powers of prediction, FMG’s divorce, Bond payouts, what is a RINO, new QAV 3PTL sell alerts, do we get rid of 2BL / JOSEPHINE, Ryan's analysis on 0.1 and ADT levels, Pulled Pork on LAU, the HOPE model, BRB / RMS takeover, sell-side vs buy-side analysts.

LAU is a the new Michael Jordan; selling MQG; URW updates; wheat price confusion; club member results; pulled pork on NZM; investing in companies with high levels of debt or intangibles.

It’s the end of FY23 and we reveal the QAV portfolio performance as well as our personal portfolio performance and discuss the performance of some QAV Club members. We also take a question from Alex about how young people might get started in investing, discuss the Dogs of the Dow, a pulled pork on URW, and potential changes to Rule 1.

On this week’s episode: Tin is a buy, which makes MLX (the subject of Tony’s pulled pork) a buy. BRK is just an oil play as far as we can tell, but Crude Oil just became a sell. We clarify Steve Mabb’s thoughts on using Betashares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA) to park our cash and agree it’s worth a try. Artificial intelligence powers US shares into a bull market, but will it help the AORD? Tony continues to criticise the RBA’s use of interest rates. If DBI is a “bond proxy” should it be on our buy list? C6C dropped by 18% yesterday - we don’t know why, but discuss whether or not there are any Rule 1 fudges.

On this week’s episode: Tin is a buy, which makes MLX (the subject of Tony’s pulled pork) a buy. BRK is just an oil play as far as we can tell, but Crude Oil just became a sell. We clarify Steve Mabb’s thoughts on using Betashares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA) to park our cash and agree it’s worth a try. Artificial intelligence powers US shares into a bull market, but will it help the AORD? Tony continues to criticise the RBA’s use of interest rates. If DBI is a “bond proxy” should it be on our buy list? C6C dropped by 18% yesterday - we don’t know why, but discuss whether or not there are any Rule 1 fudges.

On this week’s episode: Tin is a buy, which makes MLX (the subject of Tony’s pulled pork) a buy. BRK is just an oil play as far as we can tell, but Crude Oil just became a sell. We clarify Steve Mabb’s thoughts on using Betashares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA) to park our cash and agree it’s worth a try. Artificial intelligence powers US shares into a bull market, but will it help the AORD? Tony continues to criticise the RBA’s use of interest rates. If DBI is a “bond proxy” should it be on our buy list? C6C dropped by 18% yesterday - we don’t know why, but discuss whether or not there are any Rule 1 fudges.

While we waited for the RBA to raise rates yet again, TK talks about whether or not rates are the solution; builders going bust; ideas for what to do with our portfolio cash; the resignation of the Myer CEO; will DIY investors stay in the market; Navexa reporting issues; CGT positions; a pulled pork on AFG; the buy status of WDS and HZN; and waiting to see what happens with crude oil.

US debt ceiling hits the AORD; Doug Tynan uses A Checklist; Brettalator problems; Apollo is now THL; Using GPT to find companies with a qualified audit; Portfolio updates; Pulled pork on FPR; a refresher on operating cashflow v free cash flow; the correlation between VEA’s share price and crude oil.

This week we discuss the rough week in the AORD, with lots of sell and not much to buy; Commodity updates; sudden drops by CLX and ALO; tips on investing from Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money, and a pulled pork on FHE.

On this episode we talk about interest rate fears continuing to affect the market, PRN’s exposure to commodities, Buffett’s comments on The Intelligent Investor, thoughts about removing Josephines from the buy list, Don Bradman and investing, the Allkem (AKE) merger, a Pulled Pork on QBE, TK’s history with commodity sells, buying banks stocks, value investing article in the AFR, block/brick sizes were used in the Renko tests, does Tony ever check the stocks he holds against what their current QAV Value shows, Tony’s investment in FHE, the new Brettalator, and banks profits vis-a-vis interest rates.

On this episode we got so carried away talking about the highlights of the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway AGM, the OML drop, HotCopper pump and dumper gets prison, Light portfolios beating the benchmark, review the “The Lowest PE” rules, QAN replacing its CEO, NAB getting sold off, pulled pork on PLS, the latest RBA rate rise, the Federal budget, and reviewing the “Buy follows Sell line” and the “Latest Buy Line”, that we ran out of time for questions.

Tony is on his way back from Toronto, so I decided to have a chat about investing with the second smartest intelligence I know - ChatGPT.

Live from Toronto, we talk about the portfolio's recent performance, steel is now a sell, pulled pork on NAB, share investing vs share trading for tax purposes, update on Renko charts, and the new Brettalator update.

Copper is a buy but C6C is being sold; Buffett on Bankers; Pulled Pork MIN; Josephine timing; multiple positions and Rule 1; do uptrends continue; LAU new securities issues; investing during foreign conflicts.

Our guest on this pre-recorded short episode is Simon Shepherd from The Investment Newsletter Group. They conduct detailed stock by stock, newsletter by newsletter tracking of many of the top buy recommendations from Australian investing newsletter - a worthy service. Find out more at: https://www.tinglive.com.au

A short show today as TK is in totally Viva La Vegas and we didn’t have many questions. Portfolio & commodity updates; ALO acquisition; ETF update; pulled pork on RMS; and insights into URW.

Today our guest is Co-Founder and Managing Director of the company that produces Stock Doctor - Tim Lincoln. Tim co-founded the company in 1991 with his father Dr. Merv Lincoln and Stock Doctor was launched 6 years later, in 1997. Today, Tim has grown a highly successful financial technology and investment business that includes a growing team of 40 finance professional, thousands of long-term Stock Doctor members and over $800 million invested in their three industry leading Australian and US managed funds.

Lots of selling, not much to buy; The MAXIMS of QAV; RMS makes takeover offer yesterday for BRB; Bank Hybrids wiped out in UBS takeover of Credit Suisse; Banks and trust; Pulled pork : Ooh Media (OML); update on heavy mineral sands products; what to do when you have a commodity sell, but the day you’re going to sell it, the price is going up; the size and danger of ETFs; insights on the lithium/battery market; diversification with corporate bonds; South African corruption.

Black Monday in the bond market points to pain ahead; the impact of the SVB Collapse; Comms update; S32 - sell or not?; RBA lifts rates to 3.6%; Brett Fisher on Renko charts; Pulled Pork: SRX; using TTM for Op. cashflow; ZIM and its capital return.

Another RBA rate rise; BRI’s underlying commodity; ASIC sues Mercer Super; GNC maps to bushel prices; LAU & IGL made the S&P All Ordinaries; Gerry Harvey wheels out his old material; Guy Debelle pops up at Super Fund; Solly Lew creeps another 3% up the Myer share register; Mortgage Rate survey sees interest rates back to 6.48%; Alex Hay on WHC ownership movements; Pulled pork on Duratec (DUR); TK’s experiments with selling stocks that are no longer on the buy list; TKs view on the negative market reaction to both CLX and DDH.

US inflation drives the ASX down; Wheat is a Josephine; Portfolio is up 16.14%; DP recent trades; Tony’s three life lessons; Ray Dalio existing Bridgewater; Aussie CEOs denying reality; QAN profit; Super changes; Berkshire Report; Mortgage rate drop to 6.45%; pulled pork on COH; CCP results; is QAV a zero sum game; WHC shareholders; XTE's results.