Forward Guidance

Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023. ____ Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kelly’s latest “Without Warning” Substack: https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained (18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging (38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses (46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System? (54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile" (01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame (01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vítor Constâncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed. Constâncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECB’s hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023. ____ Follow Vítor Constâncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand (08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio (10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023 (14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession (16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve? (20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates (25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy (32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages (34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis (44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank) (49:51) Credit Suisse (51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging (54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023. After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023 (03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry (10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet (20:40) International Travel (25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business (29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance (36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023 (51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry (57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy? (01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles (11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard (18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad (30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital (37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity (45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos (46:44) Unicorns and Zombies (54:20) Elite Overproduction (57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Kathryn Judge’s book, “Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source”: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct “The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort”: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" (03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? (07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s (11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And Glass–Steagall) (17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" (33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop (34:28) Permissionless (41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? (50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations (53:42) Blockworks Research (54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting (58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business (01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto (01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

-- On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 (13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? (23:43) Forecasting Oil Prices (31:05) European Gas Prices (33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis (41:34) Chinese Oil Demand (01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market (01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk (01:24:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? — Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booth’s institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/. $3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at [email protected]. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong. Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data, “painfully corrupted.” Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023. -- Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest (07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts (09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right? (14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market (16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted" (24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary (28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle (35:04) QI Pro Discount (39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauley’s life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as: - how do Eurodollars actually work? - is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you) - how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit? McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollar’s role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023. Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed. -- Robert McCauley’s Eighth Edition of “Manias, Panics, and Crashes”: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/ On Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007X Robert McCauley’s papers referenced during the show: “The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions”: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/ “Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing”: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf “Seven decades of international banking”: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf “The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War,” pages 123-128: https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf “London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey”: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdf Joseph Wang’s latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System (19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost (26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will? (39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago (43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars? (53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air? (01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys? (01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege" (01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps (01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what it’s like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023. -- Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Ambrus’ paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low (07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower (15:14) Tail Risk Strategies (36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options (41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options (52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options (01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market (07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here? (27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn (32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples (40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan (47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds (54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds (56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates? (01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us (01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System (01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual" (01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections (01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up) (01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). ___ Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead" (17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023 (32:08) Warrant Arbitrage (59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act (01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product" (01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates (01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications (01:32:07) View on Banks (01:38:26) Cannabis ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt? (25:10) Future Economic Outlook (29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil (39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle (41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve (50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now (53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)? (55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy (59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital (01:02:41) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing. Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy (04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023 (08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy (15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's (18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023 (20:45) Permissionless (21:22) Market Hedging (27:53) Market Liquidity (29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020 (33:18) Artificial Intelligence (39:49) Blockworks Research (40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium (49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading (55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets? (59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend (01:03:39) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return. Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023. ____ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Toohig’s latest edition of “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3D Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market (27:25) Permissionless (28:03) Commercial Real Estate (35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs (41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument 44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending" (51:49) Blockworks Research (52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020 (57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses (01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks (01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates? (01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit (01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute “hottest hand” when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year. Quoting George Soros’ saying that, “when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it,” Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023. Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:51 Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble? 28:21 The Lipstick Effect 32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified? 41:57 Permissionless 42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence 50:43 Blockworks Research

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down. Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks: “Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat “Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress”: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable “Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit “SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities ____ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing. Immortalized in “The Big Short,” Vincent’s interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s ____ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance ____ Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The Current Setup (06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally? (09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks (13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution (21:17) Public.com (22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds (26:24) Outlook on Stocks (29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses (31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position? (32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions? (34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse (39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent (42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis (44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense (54:01) Private Equity (01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates? (01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward (01:12:46) Energy Stocks (01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died” (01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom" (01:21:52) Uranium ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023. Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market. We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/ Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Preparing For June FOMC (05:23) Will The Fed Hike, Skip Or Cut? (07:25) Back To 2019 (10:35) Permissionless (11:13) The Mechanics of The Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trade (19:07) The Path Ahead In H2 2023 (25:47) Reflecting On The Bond Markets Performance In 2022 (34:21) Will A New Investor Class Replace Japanese Investors? (38:31) Equity Flows (43:46) Blockworks Research (44:46) Why Are Equity Markets Performing So Well In 2023? (51:51) The Mechanics of The U.S. Treasury, General Account (01:01:04) Quantitative Tightening: Is The Reverse Repo Heading Higher? (01:05:32) How Alex Tracks Market Flows -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of “The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy,” is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a government’s ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to today’s financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Fed’s rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023. ____ Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmosler Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Warren’s website: https://moslereconomics.com/ Warren’s book and other writings: https://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ (00:00) Risk Of Government Unwind Would Be Catastrophic (07:24) "Money Is Just A Series Of Dots Going On And Off In People's Bank Accounts" (14:52) The Federal Reserve Prints Money (19:07) The Government Spends First, Taxes and Borrows Second (31:23) Permissionless (32:01) Quantitative Easing Does Not Have An Actual Effect On The Economy (33:17) High Interest Rates Mean More Deficit Spending (48:29) Challenging The Narrative of Volcker As The Slayer Of Inflation Dragon (54:00) Challenging The Wage Price Spiral (01:01:13) Currency Itself Is A "Public Monopoly" (01:04:04) We Are NOT In A Recession, Says Mosler (01:11:21) Is The Solution To Inflation To Cut Government Spending? (01:16:30) Blockworks Research (01:17:28) The Debt Ceiling (01:24:08) The Dollar

Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Macro Hive return to Forward Guidance to update listeners on the U.S. debt ceiling, which may be breached as early as June. Filmed on May 25, 2023. To access a 40% discount to an annual subscription of Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Twitter https://twitter.com/firstkicktires Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_f Joseph’s latest piece on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/probing-lclor/ Joseph Wang YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) The Debt Ceiling (10:09) What Happens When The Treasury Runs Out Of Money? (18:20) Will The Fed Come To Rescue? (Yes, Say Dominique & Joseph) (27:19) What Counts As A "Default"? (32:21) MacroHive (32:57) How Might The Market React? (36:05) Are These "Magical Measures" Just A Temporary Fix? (37:50) Payment Prioritization (41:45) U.S. Treasury's Non-Marketable Debt Will Play A Key Role (50:02) Potential For "Huge Liquidity Drain" As Treasury Plans On Issuing $1 Trillion In Bills Over The Next Six Months (01:01:10) Dominique and Joseph's Views On The Economy (01:08:20) Joseph's Updated Views On Banks

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this year’s huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023. ____ Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Jason's Early Years In Hong Kong (01:47) "Too Much Leverage Is A Bad Thing" (04:52) Importance of Journaling Your Trades (07:37) The Essence Of Successful Contrarianism (09:54) Why Jason Has Been Bullish On Stocks All Year (14:42) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report (17:54) Why Jason Is Short Gold (22:28) Permissionless (23:03) Futures Positioning vs. Positioning Of The Whole Market (28:22) Why Are Speculators Wrong At Extremes? (34:20) Why CTAs Performed So Poorly This Year (Commodity Trading Advisor) (40:22) Blockworks Research (41:22) You Need Confirmation From The Market (46:38) Long Stocks, Short Gold Remains High Conviction Trade (48:57) Stop Losses (50:36) Bank Stocks (51:55) Why Jason Is Short The Euro (53:12) Risk of Recession and Debt Ceiling (01:09:26) Why Vast Majority Of Investors Don't Beat The Index ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to. Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Paul's Oil Market Outlook (10:25) Oil Companies Profitability (11:37) Why Is Oil Demand Lower Than Expected In 2023? (17:40) Why Is This Oil Market So Tough To Trade? (19:42) The Four Structural Drivers Of Oil Prices (22:52) Permissionless (23:55) Are Oil Equties Cheap? (35:28) The Political Cycle Is Shorter Than The Energy Cycle (39:18) How Does Oil Perform During A Recession? (44:44) The Economics Of ESG (47:03) Blockworks Research (48:02) Warren Buffett Continues Buying $OXY (54:09) The Correlation Between Bank Stocks & Oil (57:26) Sankey Research (01:02:23) Small & Mid Size Oil Companies In Canada -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history. Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023. ____ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. ____ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Right Now, The Main Issue Is Interest Rate Risk (12:56) What Causes A Bank Run? (17:55) Are Bank Runs Faster In An Age of Mobile Banking? (21:55) Van Eck Ad (22:45) Money Market Funds and The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Where A Lot Of Bank Money Is Going (25:33) Risk Of Further Big Bank Consolidation (29:51) Best Time To Shut Down A Bank Is Friday Night (31:10) Federal Reserve Lending To Insolvent Institutions Increases The FDIC's Cost To Resolve Failed Banks (32:53) How To Know When To Shut Down A Failing Bank (34:51) "I Was Surprised At The Biden Administration's Level Of Involvement" (37:12) The Systemic Risk Determination, Explained (42:56) 2018 Loosening Of Regulation of Regional Banks (47:35) Forcing Banks To Raise More Equity (i.e. sell stock) (49:31) The Federal Reserve's Role As Bank Regulator ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be “imminently” passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden. ____ Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (“Ahead Of The Heard”), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd And use code “Forward Guidance” at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. “Ahead of The Heard” typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week. To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsman’s institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-research And use code “Blockworks” for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month. ____ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative (04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking? (05:48) Banking System (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility (42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS (01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos — Referenced In The Show: Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective on Wartime Amendments to the Federal Reserve Act: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368342410_Making_a_Central_Bank_Out_of_the_Federal_Reserve_A_Historical_Perspective_on_Wartime_Amendments_to_the_Federal_Reserve_Act Fighting Financial Crises Learning from the Past Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo26527334.html — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Historial Comparisons To 2023's Banking Turmoil (02:37) The Difference Between Solvency & Liquidty In A Bank Run (07:17) Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve (11:42) The Role of Gold In The Federal Reserve's History (17:00) Why Did Gold Flee To The Fed In 1917? (22:57) Permissionless ad (24:00) The Federal Reserve: The Lender Of Last Resot (29:51) How Has The Banking System Developed Throughout U.S History? (35:21) The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (38:11) The Bank Term Funding Program (41:14) All Roads Lead Back To Congress (46:50) Learning From The Lesson's Of The Great Depression (55:37) The Looming Debt Ceiling (58:19) Blockworks Research (59:20) The Trillion Dollar Coin — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Patrick's 2022 Warnings About Banks (10:33) Credit Risks (15:49) Shadow Banking System (19:35) Permissionless (20:38) Loan Growth (29:17) Global Liquidity Is Collapsing (34:32) Foreign Banks Are Having Issues (37:20) The Pain Trade Is For The Dollar To Go Higher (40:11) Rate Hikes "An Economic War Crime"? (43:34) Commercial Real Estate (49:42) Bank Run Risks (56:14) Blockworks Research (57:16) Where Are Interests Rates Headed? (01:00:54) China (01:08:50) Closing Thoughts

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors. ____ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Tracking Capital Flows (01:43) Where Is The Money Going? (19:53) The Dollar And The Euro (25:30) Blockworks Research (26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data? (38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys? (41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization (46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar (57:14) Permissionless (58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities (01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:40) China's Economic Growth Model (18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China (26:01) Van Eck ad (26:51) Domestic Consumption In China (35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works (39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble (43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China (49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue (01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy (01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity? (01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S. (01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rd’s Federal Reserve’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Intro (11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)? (15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put (25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell" (29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground" (34:30) Permissionless (35:34) The Balance Sheet (40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks (47:41) Blockworks Research (48:41) The Debt Ceiling (54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession" (58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar (59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine (01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are Evolving

Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of “Trillion Dollar Triage” joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023. --- Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784 Timiraos’ article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936 Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage”: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 --- Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserve’s meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that “conditions in the banking sector have improved.” Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted. Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Fed’s last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets. Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farley’s discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75. Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw — Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Referenced In The Show: The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market (05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago (15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks? (18:57) Natural Gas (23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies? (28:50) Permissionless (29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market (33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE) (40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook (56:19) Blockworks Research (57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World (01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today First Republic, America’s 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from today’s takeover. ____ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic (04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First" (07:06) "We Just Need More Time" (09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut" (11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down (15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)? (19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk (37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow” (40:55) Permissionless (41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back) (52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (55:38) Blockworks Research (56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance (01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System,” Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollar’s death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a “little rocky.” __ “Money and Empire”: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB “Money and Empire” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570 __ Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrling Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ “The New Lombard Street”: https://www.amazon.com/New-Lombard-Street-Became-Dealer/dp/0691143986/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=i42Qi&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=144-5485129-5375822&pd_rd_wg=KL4l1&pd_rd_r=5ee218b8-1e89-4991-8a8d-ac9e7c073e06&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Perry Mehrling, Zoltan Pozsar, Daniel Neilson, and James Sweeney, “Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:02) What Is The Global Dollar System? (02:32) The Dollar Is International, Not Domestic (06:43) The Inherent Instability Of Thought (08:49) "The Fed Learned Its Lesson From 2008" (11:45) Key Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (20:36) The Fall Of The Sterling Standard After World War 1 (24:02) Sterling Was The Standard, Not Gold (26:25) "The Crime Of 1971" Was Nixon's DePegging The Dollar From Gold, According to Kindleberger (27:44) Why Was There Inflation In The 1970s (Instead of Deflation)? (30:50) Next Few Years Will Be "A Little Rocky" (36:03) The Globalization Of Shadow Banking (39:06) Blockworks Research (40:05) Money Market Funds (MMFs), Comparison Between Now And Great Financial Crisis (43:44) "The Dollar System Seems To Be Holding Together" (46:45) The Four Prices Of Money (56:02) Permissionless (57:04) Kindleberger's Critique Of The Triffin Dilemma (01:06:48) The Myth Of Bretton Woods (01:12:32) What's Missing In Contemporary Understanding Of Kindleberger's School Of Thought __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he’s no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces he’s no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, “Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning.” Filmed on April 17, 2023. ____ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:01) Shorting Commercial Real Estate Is A Crowded Trade (08:36) Outlook On Stocks (12:24) Healthcare Sector (14:53) Permissionless (15:56) "Gold Is Super Interesting" (19:26) Gold Mining Stocks (22:29) May Fed Meeting Could Be "Next Big Catalyst" For Gold (24:54) Is It Time To Get Bullish On Bonds? (27:25) "The Labor Market Will Weaken A Bit" (28:38) Jared's New Book (30:03) What Is Luck? (36:55) Blockworks Research (37:55) Is Finance Depraved?

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse. Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/ Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankus Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/ The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Way-Rob-Bank-Own/dp/0292754183 THE NEW MONETARY POLICY: https://files.modernmoney.network/M3F000001.pdf?ref=crisesnotes.com The Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement: https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-federal-government-always-money/ — Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:20) What Is Shadow Money? (14:51) The Collapse of SVB (22:42) The Bank Term Funding Program (29:29) The March Banking Panic Was NOT A Systemic Crisis (31:23) The Savings & Loans Crisis (37:37) Bank Crisis... But The Fed Hiked Rates? (45:17) The New Monetary Policy (01:04:03) Modern Monetary Theory (01:13:03) Re-Thinking Government Borrowing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral (07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme (15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management (18:47) Credit Crunch (22:35) Public Ad (23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over? (30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible? (33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber? (35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.) (39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels (44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020? (47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021? (49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money" (55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right? (56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium (01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for China’s re-emergence from recession as a catalyst for more potential short-term dollar weakness. Filmed on April 20, 2023. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:32) "You Shouldn't Go All-In Against The United States & The U.S. Dollar" (12:06) Van Eck (12:55) Why Trade Is Invoiced In Dollars (19:01) The Bretton Woods System And The Rise Of "EuroDollars" (Offshore Dollars) (24:18) "Don't Confuse A Possibility With A Probability" (30:52) Sanctions (33:56) The Gold Standard And The Necessary Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (38:44) Bitcoin Standard Would Be "Massively Deflationary" (40:52) Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold? (42:05) When And Why Does The Dollar Spike Higher Against Other Currencies? (47:58) The Debt Ceiling (58:13 China's Belt and Road Initiative (01:00:58) Fears Of A Sovereign Debt Crisis (01:05:06) Currency Hegemons Will Continue To Be The Norm ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The more capital a bank holds, the more losses it can take before going bust. Dr. Martien Lubberink, professor at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Forward Guidance to define regulatory bank capital and put it in context of the conspicuous bank meltdowns in March. Lubberink opines on the issues at Credit Suisse & Silicon Valley Bank through the lens of bank capital, and he shares insights on the health and nature of the banking system of New Zealand, where he currently resides. Filmed on April 6, 2023. -- Follow Martin Lubberink on Twitter https://twitter.com/cetier1 Read Martin Lubberink’s blog at https://capitalissues.co/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Pieces discussed in the interview: “The Value of Kiwibank” Fresh RBNZ Dashboard data shows New Zealand’s largest banks on track to meet increasing capital ratio requirements” Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:39) Lubberink's Background In Bank Capital During The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (08:04) What Is Bank Capital? (13:37) Silicon Valley Bank Was A Masterclass In "How To Not Run A Bank" (18:16) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (25:55) Permissionless (26:59) Important Regulatory Bank Capital Ratios (37:26) Credit Suisse & Additional Tier 1 Bonds (46:14) Operational Risks (48:11) "New Zealand Banks Are Among The Most Resilient Banks In The World” (51:32) Interest Rate Hedging Again (Jack Is Obsessed) (55:10) Blockworks Research (56:11) Kiwi Bank (01:01:33) Monetary Policy Of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (NZ's Central Bank) (01:04:08) Real Estate Boom in New Zealand (01:06:59) Relaxation Of U.S. Banking Regulation

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her findings on the problems brewing in commercial real estate, the collapse in money supply (M2) growth, and her updated views on the auto and housing markets. -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:33) "Deathly Silence" In Private Equity World (16:13) "There Will Be A 'Mark-to-Market' Moment" (19:31) Issues In Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (21:47) Public ad (22:50) Auto Loans Are In Distress (30:36) The Residential Housing Market (36:39) ill Inflation Fall? (38:08) Fed Expects A Recession (41:12) Money Growth Is Lowest Since Great Depression (44:30) The Debt Ceiling (51:09) The Bernanke Doctrine In Jeopardy? (QE whil rates are above zero) (01:03:40) Quantitative Easing Is NOT Back, Says Danielle (01:09:28) Closing Thoughts On Credit Crunch -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jerome Schneider, managing director at PIMCO, is a maestro of short-term funding markets. He oversees PIMCO’s >$300 Billion pool of short-term liquidity for investors (the asset side) and also devises strategies to efficiently and robustly fund PIMCO’s longer-term investments (the liability side). Schneider gives in-depth insight on how key indicators in the short-term funding world have changed during and after the March 2023 banking crisis, such as liquidity, repo, and the shape of yield curve. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, April 17th, 2023. To learn more about PIMCO, go to http://pimco.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (07:47) Why Are 1-Month Treasury Bills Trading So Expensive ("Rich") To Other Interest Rates? (11:42) The Debt Ceiling (19:02) Permissionless (20:05) The Fed Has Done A Tremendous Job In Cutting Off Tail Risks For Funding (30:43) Thoughts On An Inverted Yield Curve (36:27) The Fed Pivot (41:59) Credit Risk In Short-Term Assets (44:16) Liquidity As Offense Rather Than Liquidity As Defense (48:44) Blockworks Research (49:44) Funding PIMCO's Leveraged Strategies (56:03) Closing Thoughts On Opportunities in Short-Term Markets (59:55) Will Banks Have To Pay More For Deposits?

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Simon Ree Author & Founder of The Tao Of Trading joins the show for a discussion on the key principles for becoming a successful trader. Simon takes us back to March 2020, a period which kicked off an aggressive bull market leading all the way up to 2022. In 2022, many market participants got caught offside as the aggressive rally suddenly turned into an equally as aggressive bear market. Now in 2023, the bulls and bears standoff at a cross roads waiting for the next indicator of where markets are heading. Simon walks through the difficult past 3 years in markets, and explains the key principles to remember when investing in this current market paradigm. -- Follow Simon: https://twitter.com/simon_ree Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Simon's Entry To Finance: Black Monday (03:37) What Makes A Successful Trader? (05:10) Consistency Is A Superpower (07:29) I am Not A Trader, I am A Risk Manager (09:50) The Process of Making A Trade (12:54) Trading A Bull Market (17:41) Trading A Bear Market (19:14) Permissionless ad (20:17) Trading The Inflationary Bear Market of 2022 (29:05) Market Positioning, Sentiment & Short Squeezes (34:13) Blockworks Research (35:13) The Principles of Technical Analysis (37:19) Trading The Bull Market of 2020 (40:01) Assessing Current Market Conditions 946:02) The TAO of Trading (52:53) The Biggest Opportunities In Markets (56:26) How To Compound Your Returns (01:02:54) Finding The Right Trading Strategy For You -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to comment on the ample and growing earnings of the big banks (particularly JPMorgan Chase, whose stock surged over 7% on rosy net income and increasing deposits). Whalen argues that banks’ unrealized losses on their securities due to interest rate risk have gone down dramatically as interest rates have fallen since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10. However, he expects banks’ cost of funds (what they have to pay for deposits) to continue to rise and he makes the case that the primary headwind for banks is not interest rate risk, but credit risk. Whalen argues that while there could be more bank failures ahead, he expects it will be the outlier banks that fail, not the mainstream banks. This interview was filmed the morning of Friday, April 14th, shortly after large American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2023. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:55) "Banks Have Lots Of Commercial Real Estate Exposure" (06:24) Banks' Unrealized Losses Have Gotten Smaller Over The Past Month (08:25) The Return Of Credit Risk (16:06) Is The Banking Crisis Moderating? If So, Why? (19:18) Van Eck Ad (20:06) There's A Slowdown in Lending (22:08) Quantitative Easing's Distortion Of Bank Balance Sheets (24:32) Chris Suggests The Fed Sell Securities Into The Market (28:27) "The Bid For Risk Free Dollar Assets Is Still Off The Scale" (30:12) Recent Rally In Bonds Has Helped Bank Book Value (36:23) "People Love To Say The Word 'Hedge' And Then Change The Subject"

Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many property developers will strategically default and walk away from the buildings. McNamara shares why he has been shorting the riskier tranches of CRE loans via the CMBX, and he tells Jack Farley why the cascade of defaults he expects will cause tremendous damage to the securitized market for CRE loans. Key terms for this interview: CRE = Commercial Real Estate CMBS = Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities CMBX = a synthetic tradable index referencing a basket of CMBS CLO = Collateralized Loan Obligation LTV = Loan-to-value ratio Filmed on April 11, 2023. Follow Dan McNamara on Twitter https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:01) Office Properties Could Decline by 50% Or More (15:25) Defaults WIll Lead To Forced Selling (20:03) Why Rising Interest Rates Has Imperiled Many Commercial Real Estate Deals (23:25) Regional Banks Are Curbing Lending After Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (30:01) Differences Between This and The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) And "The Big Short" (35:03) Shorting Tranches of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (42:09) Views on Highly-Rated Tranches (AAA- and AA-) (45:03) Interest Rate Risk (Duration) Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (47:45) "We Are Pretty Market Neutral” (50:17) "We Think The Credit Curve Is Still Too Flat" (54:44) The "Refinancing Game" Is Over (01:11:54) If McNamara Is Right About Commercial Real Estate, How Systemic Will This Be?

On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling. In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Lou: https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Silicon Valley Bank, Reminiscent of The Savings & Loan Crisis? (06:08) Why Are Deposits Leaving Banks? (11:30) The Plumbing of Treasury Debt (21:34) The Reverse Repo Is A Danger To The Banking System (34:12) Public.com Ad (35:18) How The Fed Can Control Financial Stability Using Interest Rates (50:39) The Debt Ceiling (01:05:56) The Reserve Gap (01:07:43) The 2019 Repo Crisis: Everyone Has A Plan, Until They Get Punched In The Nose (01:13:57) Will Banking Turmoil Lead To A Credit Crunch? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.