Forward Guidance

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market. After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (16:14) The Fed in 2022 (21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly" (24:02) Blockworks Research (25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022 (27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally (32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship (36:11) Permissionless Plug (37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong (40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing? (44:23) Defining Liquidity (46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds? (48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally? (50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME (51:46) Yield Curve View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/ Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief (04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong (07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%" (01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go (15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case (28:06) Curve Ad (29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling? (36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening? (46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water" (01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate (01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%? (01:14:45) Higher For Longer! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to “pivot” and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market. Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/ For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email [email protected] This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today. ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets (11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong" (14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario" (20:57) Base Case For 2023 (24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed? (29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time (33:43) Public Ad (35:49) Controlled Explosions In China" (41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro (46:48) The Debt Supercycle (49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls (56:23) Bonds and Oil (01:04:51) Private Equity (01:09:26) Recession Type and Length (01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation. -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Fed’s policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrow’s press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling. Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmith Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Timestamps: (00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting (09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose? (18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher" (25:48) Forward Guidance (30:55) Curve Ad (32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data (37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)? (40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC (43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow? (47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT) (51:14) The Debt Ceiling (53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility

Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023. Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Outlook for 2023 (06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks (11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations (17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks (20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts (28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector (31:30) Permissionless Plug (32:33) China, Gold Miners, and Airlines (37:06) European Stocks (43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On? (45:53) The Fed (55:40) Inverted Yield Curve

Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the world’s most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth analysis of the breadth and volume characteristics of recent price action that make him think that the bear market is over. Berg is particularly constructive on China and gold miners, and in addition he and Farley debate the meaning of the steep yield curve inversion. Milton Berg Advisors is a boutique consulting and research firm that offers investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. More info can be found at https://miltonberg.com/. Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Milton Berg's Way Of Analyzing Markets (09:31) A Transition From Inflation To Recession Is Bullish For Stocks (12:13) Comparison To Dot-Com Crash (17:24) "The Market Bottomed In June" (21:12) Bullish On Chinese & U.S. Stocks (29:37) Permissionless Plug (30:39) But What About Bear Market Rallies? (42:58) "I Have Zero Sell Signals" (45:08) But What About The Inverted Yield Curve? (47:44) The Unemployment Rate (56:53) China Stocks and Gold (01:04:44) Milton Berg's Outlook on Treasury Bonds __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The last time Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception, appeared on Forward Guidance in August 2022, he gave viewers a well-timed warning that the commodity supercycle was “on hold.” Now, he returns to argues that the world is well on its way to a global recession that will provide a hostile environment for risk assets. Yang shares his “equity bottom checklist” with Jack Farley to argue that equities have much more down to fall, and he explains why he thinks risk-off assets like bonds will perform well. Yang expects a “blow-out” of credit spreads and he thinks that the U.S. dollar will perform less well against other currencies than it does in a typical recession. Filmed on January 12th, 2023. Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:36) Base Case For 2023 (04:14) Where's The Recession? (08:11) Liquidity (18:25) Housing and Manufacturing Are Weak (24:21) Interest Rates (28:05) Cruve Ad (29:08) China (33:36) Underweight Equities (Asset Allocation Part 1) (43:03) The Checklist For A Market Bottom (47:19) Incredibly Rare Set-up in Gold" (48:43) Overweight Bonds (Asset Allocation Part 2) (55:19) Neutral On Commodities (Asset Allocation Part 3) (01:02:26) The U.S. Dollar (01:05:13) The Most Crowded Trade In Macro Right Now (01:11:22) The VIX in 2023

Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called “soft landing” could be achieved this year. At least that’s what many asset markets that Dale tracks closely are indicating. This environment is conducive to risk assets rallying and volatility abating - at least in the short-term. However, Dale shares his own view that this current period of economic moderation is likely only a “transitory goldilocks” that will give way to a recession that begins in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dale also shares his outlook on China, bonds, and Bitcoin. Filmed on January 12, 2023. -- Follow 42 Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAlerts Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAware Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Have The Odds Of A "Soft Landing" Increased? (06:59) Transitory Goldilocks" (13:53) The Fed Is Focused More On Wage Growth & Labor Market Now Than Inflation (20:20) Odds Of The Fed Cutting Rates (27:17) Permissionless Ad (28:17) But Isn't Growth Falling Rapidly? (40:13) Is Inflation Eating Away At Wealth? (44:59) Is Liquidity Turning Up? (53:53) Asset Allocation (01:02:27) "Tons of Upside In China" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation. Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of market functioning and financial stability to determine policy outcome (as opposed to inflation-combating). In addition to the Bank of Japan and the most intense market pressure they are currently under, Weston also explains what is behind the remarkable strength in the yen as of late, how it is possible for JGBs to yield above the so-called Yield Curve Control upper ceiling, and what's next for the "least predictable" major central bank, as we head into the critical end of Governor Kuroda's era. See Weston and Jack from the previous December 2022 BOJ Day: Bank of Japan’s Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston Nakamura Dec 21, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYR34YbXMvY&t=157s Listen to Weston Nakamura and Emma Muhleman, CFA discuss the Bank of Japan in full detail on Twitter Spaces during live Japan trading hours ahead of the BOJ decision here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX?s=20 – Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Weston on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __

Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two “blue pill” scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or “higher-er for longer-er” interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022. __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 As big banks start to report their earnings, Jack turns to banking specialist Alex Gray for insight. Gray taps her prior experience both as a commercial banking underwriter and as a senior analyst of large cap banking stocks to glean insights from the fourth quarter reports of JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM)., Bank of America ($BAC), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Gray navigates the delicate balance between loan growth and credit quality, evaluates the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate hikes on the profitability and balance sheets of the nation’s largest money centers. As disclosed in the interview, Alex Gray currently serves as the director of finance for Blockworks. Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) How To Value Bank Stocks (03:10) Bank Profitability When Interest Rates Are At Zero (10:07) How To Measure Credit Losses (14:09) Commercial Lending Is In A New Bull Market (21:17) The Importance of Collateral (26:20) Permissionless Ad (33:55) Current Default Rates Are Low (But Rising) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- With U.S. monthly inflation coming in negative, what’s in store for the future economy and interest rate path? Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, and Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, discuss. -- Follow Jeff Snider on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Unlimited Funds on Twitter https://twitter.com/UnlimitedFnds Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) December CPI Report (08:45) Is There Monetary Inflation? (11:45) The Labor Market Remains Strong (Or Does It?) (32:37) Personal Income (34:43) Permissionless Plug (35:43) Biblical Levels of Yield Curve Inversion (54:25) Consumer Spending & Bank Lending -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments and geopolitics editor at Lykeion, joins Jack to share his geopolitical outlook for 2023. Jacob tells Jack why he thinks that Russia’s war again Ukraine will sadly continue for some time, and he explains how the war is impacting global supply chains, commodity prices, and international relations. Jacob also shares with Jack his take on China’s economy, which is at a crossroads between a slow-motion train wreck of its collapsing real estate sector, and the reflationary tailwinds from the end of its zero-Covid policy. Filmed on January 10, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (06:07) Economic Consequences of The War (13:35) China and India Are Buying Russian Oil In Bulk (15:42) European Price Cap On Russian Oil (19:47) Who Are Russia's Allies? (22:52) How Might This War End? (31:33) Permissionless Plug (32:33) China (35:34) Will Liquidity Be Restored In China? (49:00) Taiwan & Semiconductors -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In December 2021, Kevin Muir, veteran trader and author of The Macro Tourist, came on Forward Guidance and made a series of bold predictions all of which came true. Now, with a red carpet rolled out for him, Kevin returns to Forward Guidance to share his predictions for 2023. Kevin argues that U.S. stocks will underperform foreign equities, that 2023 will be far more “boring” than investors expect, and that deep trouble is brewing in private markets (venture capital, private equity, and private debt). Kevin also contends that the economy might fare better than many anticipate, and that bank stocks will do well. Filmed the afternoon of January 6th, 2023. -- Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir’s newsletter, The Macro Tourist, can be found here: https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Kevin’s interview on Forward Guidance in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJkEokqqaKM&t=400s -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) The Fed (05:43) When Will Recession Come (If At All)? (13:32) 2023 Will Be More Boring Than People Expect (18:09) The Bond Market Pain Might Continue (25:01) Where Is The Terminal Rate? (29:25) Curve Ad (30:26) The Era of U.S. Equity Outperformance Is Over (47:42) There Will Be Trouble In Private Markets (01:00:54) The Tide Is Out, Who Will Be Left Swimming Naked? (01:08:06) The Banks Will Do Fine (01:13:57) Outlook on Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vance Spencer, co-founder of Framework Ventures, a venture firm that invests exclusively in digital assets, joins Jack to look back on crypto’s rough 2022 and look forward to what is on the horizon. Spencer shares his framework for valuing digital assets, explains why he thinks the vast majority of crypto projects are unsuitable for this valuation methods, and offers his reasoning for why he is very bullish on Ethereum above all else. Filmed on December 21, 2022. -- Follow Vance Spencer on Twitter https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Framework Ventures on Twitter https://twitter.com/hiframework Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:36) The Seeds of A Bear Market (10:10) Why Vance Is Skeptical On Solana (12:57) Crypto Health Check in 2023 (16:17) How Does Macro Impact Crypto? (24:53) Permissionless Ad (25:53) Big Tech (27:38) Genesis And The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (32:10) Crypto "Yield" And Its Many Problems (35:59) Bitcoin (41:08) Valuation of Eth (45:24) Contagion Risks Within Crypto (48:25) Tether (50:48) Investment Strategies In A Bear Market (52:33) Crypto Gaming & The Metaverse (59:57) Who Had Accounts At FTX? (01:01:48) Why have prices been rangebound over the past month? (01:03:11) Non-Ethereum Projects That Vance Likes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Felix Jauvin, macro analyst at Reflexivity Research, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on liquidity, the Fed, and inflation. Jauvin argues that the liquidity that the Federal Reserve is removing from the financial system via quantitative tightening (QT) is being sterilized by the draining of the Fed’s reverse repo facility (RRP) - in other words, the Federal Reserve is removing money with one hand and adding money back with another. Jauvin shares his outlook on assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, the dollar, and crypto. Filmed on December 20, 2022. -- Follow Felix Jauvin on Twitter https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Liquidity In 2023 (15:30) Reverse Repo & Treasury General Account (TGA) (20:59) What's Going To Break? (30:05) A "Nightmare Scenario" For Powell And The Fed (34:16) Pivot And Yield Curve Control (37:07) Views On Inflation (43:57) Commodities Outlook (48:57) Equities (56:03) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and author of "The Second Bank of the United States: Central banker in an era of nation-building" joins the show for a masterclass in financial history. Taking us back to the founding of the First & Second Bank of the United States, Knodell discusses the origins of banking, central banking and everything in between, taking us on a tour from the late 1700's to present day. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) The First Bank In The United States (04:29) The Coinage Act Of 1790 (08:37) The Financing Of The Revolutionary War (14:40) How Successful Was The First Bank? (17:14) The Second Bank of the United States: “Central” Banker in an Era of Nation-Building (24:50) The Mechanics of "Discounts, Exchange & Treasury Debt" (29:05) The Panic Of 1819 (33:02) The Panic of 1825 & The Role Of "Central" Banking (40:12) Did The Second Bank of the United States Closing In 1836 Have Any Effect On The Panic Of 1837? (46:29) The Panic Of 1907: The J.P. Morgan Bailouts (53:55) The Financial System's Plumbing (57:54) The Financing of WWI (01:02:34) The Great Depression (01:07:47) Can The Federal Reserve Print Money? (01:11:13) Bretton Woods (01:15:35) The Treasury-Fed Accord (01:19:15) The FTX Fallout -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Interest rates are a key measure of the price of money, but as the plural suggests, there is one more than just one interest rate. Today Jack dives deep into the interest rate structure with whiz kid Kemen Linsuain, known commonly as DC Analyst, who knows a thing or two about the many different kinds of risk-free rates that punctuate the financial system. Kemen tells of the Federal Funds rate, which is the nominal overnight rate that the Federal Reserve controls, to other rates within the Fed’s remit such as the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the reverse repo rate (RRP). Kemen and Jack then discuss overnight interest rates not within the Fed’s control such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and then other rates and derivatives such as Treasury bill futures and swap rates. Note: the vast majority of rates discussed in this conversation are short-term rates with minimal amounts of credit risk, and should not be confused with corporate bond yield, mortgage rates, or commercial banking rates. Lastly, Kemen shares his thoughts on crypto, and tells Jack about his latest venture into crypto as a content creator at Gauntlet. -- About Gauntlet: https://gauntlet.network/ DC Analyst blog: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/ Latest chartback from DC Analyst: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-17 Follow Kemen on Twitter https://twitter.com/AnalystDC Follow Gauntlet on Twitter https://twitter.com/gauntletnetwork Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Interest Rate Mayhem in 2022 (14:19) Repo Markets (21:08) Curve Ad (22:14) Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) (37:03) Interest Rate Derivatives Market (41:39) LIBOR to SOFR Transition (50:14) Spread Between EFFR & SOFR (Effective Fed Funds Rate & Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (55:26) Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) (56:50) Negative Swap Spreads (59:48) Term Premium (01:02:12) Thoughts On The Fed (01:06:53) Crypto & DeFi (01:13:34) Where Did The (Crypto) Yield Come From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high. Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets. -- Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions (13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023 (20:33) Curve Ad (21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle? (29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish (31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance? (36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions (47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect (49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's (56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023 (01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins today’s interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022. Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/ -- Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023 (05:32) Severe Recession Incoming (10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023 (22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain (25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace (31:16) China (38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess? (42:08) Bond Market Outlook (49:39) Energy (54:21) Is Europe In A Recession? (55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates? (57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime (01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar (01:09:59) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there’s no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJ’s decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022. -- Follow Katie Stockton on Twitter https://twitter.com/StocktonKatie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA) (05:30) Support And Resistance (11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions (24:02) Curve Ad (25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer (33:02) Outlook on S&P 500 (35:36) Outlook on Oil (44:48) Gold (46:47) Treasury Yields (50:24) Sector Analysis (54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is something unlike any other that’s ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can China’s economy emerge stronger than ever? Let’s just say that today’s guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners. An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Follow Kyle Bass on Twitter https://twitter.com/Jkylebass Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Kyle Bass’ 2023 Macro Outlook (04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices? (13:10) China's Economy (23:00) The Chinese Communist Party (28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate? (43:57) Russia and Putin (48:42) Uranium and the Fed (52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of November’s inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting (04:37) The Dot Plot (13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot? (17:42) The Job Market (24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be? (30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse (45:40) Recession (48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling (51:33) Can Services Save Us?

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this “pivot” will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that China’s growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022 Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change (05:51) Stock Market Outlook (9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China (18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading (19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy (22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak? (24:09) The U.S. Dollar (26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds (35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023 (39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market (45:12) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, “How To Invest: Masters On The Craft,” in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success. Link to David Rubenstein’s book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302 Link to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601s Link to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s -- Follow David Rubenstein on Twitter https://twitter.com/DM_Rubenstein Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) What Makes A Great Investor? (04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity (09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor (11:42) Fundraising (19:22) Inflation (21:05) The Business Cycle (24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations (27:36) Economic Outlook (29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority. Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation (02:39) The Housing Market Recession (05:33) The Auto Market (08:05) General Investment Outlook (10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks (13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks (14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook (16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish? (19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)? (22:19) Curve Ad (23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates? (27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022 (33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys (34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks (36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023? (42:56) Energy (44:32) About Oxbow -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email [email protected] or [email protected], or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email [email protected] or [email protected]. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market (05:08) The U.S. Auto Market (13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next? (24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market (30:30) Tesla (33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream? (45:23) Europe's Auto Market (51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles (01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers (01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance (01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book “The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global.” Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of “risk-free” trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by “yes men,” and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global). Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much “worse” than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jack’s reading that FTX likely misused (or at least “mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (“repo”) markets in 2022, as well as the Fed’s dilemma between price stability and financial stability. Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrm Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global? (02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008 (11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds? (20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX (23:29) Cross-Margining (32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades (40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades (43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM (47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate (53:59) The Fed's Dilemma (58:51) The Repo Market in 2022 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX. James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud. He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James’ writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/ James’ piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent James’ piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift __ Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45) "Is Alameda Research Insolvent?" (03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius (12:35) Binance (15:01) Crypto Contagion (19:13) Curve Ad (20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis (35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From? (40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With? (45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (“SBF”) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015 (09:06) Crypto in 2020 (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022 (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From? (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising? (22:07) Algorand Ad (23:52) Alameda & FTX (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es) (40:13) General Market Outlook (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) (49:07) Is There A Silver Lining? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnan’s book, “Market Tremors”: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) “Dominant Agents" In Finance (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? (13:26) The Shadow Banking System (17:28) The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks (19:12) Curve Ad (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto (42:45) Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners (44:36) Volatility In 2022 (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/ Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/ Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Financialization Of Everything (10:27) Private Markets (17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained (19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense (26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail (38:41) Stocks and Volatility (41:53) "Ignore The VIX" (45:19) Tail Risk (50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks? (01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market (01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen (01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts (01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays (01:26:00) Basis Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so. NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTX’s distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:15) We're Going Down" (05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto (07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil (11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked? (22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand? (26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic? (29:42) Forward Curve In Oil (38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession (47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil? (50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation (55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g -- Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email [email protected] or [email protected] -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges. Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTX’s rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (“CZ”) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (“tradfi”) world. __ Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebach Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:54) Overview of FTX's Problems (02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet (09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto (13:16) Possible Outcomes (16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets? (20:25) Risk Of Contagion (27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background (30:42) About Blockworks Research (31:49) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserve’s models indicate. Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe. -- Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMkts Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy (06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets" (08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech (12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession (14:31) The Semiconductor Industry (20:34) China (33:52) Energy (36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels (40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop? (44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession? (48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System (59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email [email protected] or [email protected], or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email [email protected] or [email protected]. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep (14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business (19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping! (23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All (32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing (40:04) Has Inflation Peaked? (44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down (46:19) The Fed Put Is No More (52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing (55:46) Oil and Natural Gas (01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter? (01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk" (01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting (04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg (12:57) Strong Labor Market (19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December? (23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert (31:05) Is A Soft Landing Still Possible? (43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022) (51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Fed’s job even harder. Timiraos Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd. ______ Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ______ Joseph Wang’s book, “Central Banking 101”: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747 Nick Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic – And Prevented Economic Disaster”: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/ Nick Timiraos’ article: “Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181 Nick Timiraos’ article: “Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614 Joseph’s Wang piece, “The Money Still Flows”: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/ Joseph Wang’s piece on Treasury Buybacks (“Quantitative Buybacks”): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/ ______ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ ______ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting (11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong (19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet (28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak" (31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback (31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target? (46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates? (49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell (56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ______

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration. Deluard proposes a “holy Trinity” portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary (17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory (27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression (39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly (46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks? (51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep? (57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF) (01:02:51) Energy (01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market (01:14:44) Brazil and Gold (01:16:40) Favorite Books Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ___

Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed “pivot” might impact asset prices. Filmed on October 26, 2022. Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19 Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguy Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Sign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/ -- Timestamps; (00:00) Intro (00:25) Macro and Crypto (03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market (10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve (28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast (30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups (36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos (44:55) Bitcoin (52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions

Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minksy” and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Bank’s efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks. Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj _ Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures. 1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets. Filmed on October 20th, 2022. Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot? (26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet (33:45) Recession Risk (35:24) Asset Allocation (38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets (45:45) Energy (53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising? (01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a “biblical” quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booth’s description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernanke’s Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) The Housing Recession (09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck (19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic? (23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex (24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking (26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue (31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022" (43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market? (48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing (51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature" (53:57) Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move? (58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S. -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Fed’s current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake. -- Follow Richard Field on Twitter https://twitter.com/tyillc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___ -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “Algorand Promotion” (00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize (04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake? (14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (28:02) “Algorand Promotion” (29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake? (37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field (52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation" (54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It? (57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market? (01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent? (01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008" (01:37:34) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment. Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. -- Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “KEDM promotion” (00:51) Intro (01:07) Overall Macro Thesis (11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (16:06) The Bull Case For Oil (22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting (30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong" (35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment (40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil (55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season (1:02:41) A Market Crash (1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) (1:11:19) “KEDM promotion” (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email [email protected] Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

It’s banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking (taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans. That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalen’s unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, you’ll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0e Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “Bittrex Ad” (00:10) Intro (00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks (03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over" (07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend) (09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning (12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be? (16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business (21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (23:18) “Bittrex Ad” (23:49) Winter For Investment Banking (27:48) The Biggest Risks (30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat (35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses? (47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America (55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession? (58:09) FinTech (59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS) (01:01:51) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.