Forward Guidance

Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins today’s interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022. Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/ -- Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023 (05:32) Severe Recession Incoming (10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023 (22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain (25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace (31:16) China (38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess? (42:08) Bond Market Outlook (49:39) Energy (54:21) Is Europe In A Recession? (55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates? (57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime (01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar (01:09:59) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there’s no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJ’s decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022. -- Follow Katie Stockton on Twitter https://twitter.com/StocktonKatie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA) (05:30) Support And Resistance (11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions (24:02) Curve Ad (25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer (33:02) Outlook on S&P 500 (35:36) Outlook on Oil (44:48) Gold (46:47) Treasury Yields (50:24) Sector Analysis (54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is something unlike any other that’s ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can China’s economy emerge stronger than ever? Let’s just say that today’s guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners. An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Follow Kyle Bass on Twitter https://twitter.com/Jkylebass Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Kyle Bass’ 2023 Macro Outlook (04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices? (13:10) China's Economy (23:00) The Chinese Communist Party (28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate? (43:57) Russia and Putin (48:42) Uranium and the Fed (52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of November’s inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting (04:37) The Dot Plot (13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot? (17:42) The Job Market (24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be? (30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse (45:40) Recession (48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling (51:33) Can Services Save Us?

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this “pivot” will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that China’s growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022 Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change (05:51) Stock Market Outlook (9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China (18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading (19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy (22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak? (24:09) The U.S. Dollar (26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds (35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023 (39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market (45:12) Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, “How To Invest: Masters On The Craft,” in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success. Link to David Rubenstein’s book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302 Link to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601s Link to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s -- Follow David Rubenstein on Twitter https://twitter.com/DM_Rubenstein Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) What Makes A Great Investor? (04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity (09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor (11:42) Fundraising (19:22) Inflation (21:05) The Business Cycle (24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations (27:36) Economic Outlook (29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority. Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation (02:39) The Housing Market Recession (05:33) The Auto Market (08:05) General Investment Outlook (10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks (13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks (14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook (16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish? (19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)? (22:19) Curve Ad (23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates? (27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022 (33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys (34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks (36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023? (42:56) Energy (44:32) About Oxbow -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email [email protected] or [email protected], or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email [email protected] or [email protected]. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market (05:08) The U.S. Auto Market (13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next? (24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market (30:30) Tesla (33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream? (45:23) Europe's Auto Market (51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles (01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers (01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance (01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book “The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global.” Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of “risk-free” trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by “yes men,” and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global). Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much “worse” than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jack’s reading that FTX likely misused (or at least “mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (“repo”) markets in 2022, as well as the Fed’s dilemma between price stability and financial stability. Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrm Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global? (02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008 (11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds? (20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX (23:29) Cross-Margining (32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades (40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades (43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM (47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate (53:59) The Fed's Dilemma (58:51) The Repo Market in 2022 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX. James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud. He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James’ writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/ James’ piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent James’ piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift __ Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45) "Is Alameda Research Insolvent?" (03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius (12:35) Binance (15:01) Crypto Contagion (19:13) Curve Ad (20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis (35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From? (40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With? (45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (“SBF”) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015 (09:06) Crypto in 2020 (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022 (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From? (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising? (22:07) Algorand Ad (23:52) Alameda & FTX (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es) (40:13) General Market Outlook (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) (49:07) Is There A Silver Lining? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnan’s book, “Market Tremors”: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) “Dominant Agents" In Finance (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? (13:26) The Shadow Banking System (17:28) The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks (19:12) Curve Ad (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto (42:45) Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners (44:36) Volatility In 2022 (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/ Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/ Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Financialization Of Everything (10:27) Private Markets (17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained (19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense (26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail (38:41) Stocks and Volatility (41:53) "Ignore The VIX" (45:19) Tail Risk (50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks? (01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market (01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen (01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts (01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays (01:26:00) Basis Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so. NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTX’s distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:15) We're Going Down" (05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto (07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil (11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked? (22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand? (26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic? (29:42) Forward Curve In Oil (38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession (47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil? (50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation (55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g -- Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email [email protected] or [email protected] -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges. Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTX’s rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (“CZ”) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (“tradfi”) world. __ Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebach Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:54) Overview of FTX's Problems (02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet (09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto (13:16) Possible Outcomes (16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets? (20:25) Risk Of Contagion (27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background (30:42) About Blockworks Research (31:49) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserve’s models indicate. Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe. -- Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMkts Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy (06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets" (08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech (12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession (14:31) The Semiconductor Industry (20:34) China (33:52) Energy (36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels (40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop? (44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession? (48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System (59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email [email protected] or [email protected], or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/. Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email [email protected] or [email protected]. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep (14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business (19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping! (23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All (32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing (40:04) Has Inflation Peaked? (44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down (46:19) The Fed Put Is No More (52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing (55:46) Oil and Natural Gas (01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter? (01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk" (01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting (04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg (12:57) Strong Labor Market (19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December? (23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert (31:05) Is A Soft Landing Still Possible? (43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022) (51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Fed’s job even harder. Timiraos Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd. ______ Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ______ Joseph Wang’s book, “Central Banking 101”: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747 Nick Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic – And Prevented Economic Disaster”: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/ Nick Timiraos’ article: “Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181 Nick Timiraos’ article: “Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614 Joseph’s Wang piece, “The Money Still Flows”: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/ Joseph Wang’s piece on Treasury Buybacks (“Quantitative Buybacks”): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/ ______ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ ______ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting (11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong (19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet (28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak" (31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback (31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target? (46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates? (49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell (56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet? Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ______

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration. Deluard proposes a “holy Trinity” portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary (17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory (27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression (39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly (46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks? (51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep? (57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF) (01:02:51) Energy (01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market (01:14:44) Brazil and Gold (01:16:40) Favorite Books Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ___

Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed “pivot” might impact asset prices. Filmed on October 26, 2022. Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19 Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguy Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Sign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/ -- Timestamps; (00:00) Intro (00:25) Macro and Crypto (03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market (10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve (28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast (30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups (36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos (44:55) Bitcoin (52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions

Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minksy” and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Bank’s efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks. Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj _ Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures. 1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets. Filmed on October 20th, 2022. Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot? (26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet (33:45) Recession Risk (35:24) Asset Allocation (38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets (45:45) Energy (53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising? (01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a “biblical” quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booth’s description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernanke’s Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) The Housing Recession (09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck (19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic? (23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex (24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking (26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue (31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022" (43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market? (48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing (51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature" (53:57) Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move? (58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S. -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Fed’s current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake. -- Follow Richard Field on Twitter https://twitter.com/tyillc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___ -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “Algorand Promotion” (00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize (04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake? (14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (28:02) “Algorand Promotion” (29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake? (37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field (52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation" (54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It? (57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market? (01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent? (01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008" (01:37:34) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment. Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. -- Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “KEDM promotion” (00:51) Intro (01:07) Overall Macro Thesis (11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (16:06) The Bull Case For Oil (22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting (30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong" (35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment (40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil (55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season (1:02:41) A Market Crash (1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) (1:11:19) “KEDM promotion” (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email [email protected] Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

It’s banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking (taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans. That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalen’s unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, you’ll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0e Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “Bittrex Ad” (00:10) Intro (00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks (03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over" (07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend) (09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning (12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be? (16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business (21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (23:18) “Bittrex Ad” (23:49) Winter For Investment Banking (27:48) The Biggest Risks (30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat (35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses? (47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America (55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession? (58:09) FinTech (59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS) (01:01:51) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Filmed on October 11, 2022. When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented “return free risk” and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 weren’t under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850). __ George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) intro (03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis (16:20) The Labor Market (20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over (27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?' (30:51) The Bull Case (34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong (39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue? (47:03) Cash Is King (50:33) Bad News Is Bad News (58:51) When Will The Market Bottom? (01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jack’s view, have predicted and understood this year’s sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve. Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration. Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022. -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://rb.gy/q0eztp Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter https://rb.gy/8a1rs4 Follow Simplify on Twitter https://rb.gy/pavfzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wang’s writings can be found at https://rb.gy/oocxuz and Bassman’s latest commentary as “The Convexity Maven” can be found here: https://rb.gy/xbibuj. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://rb.gy/uxefzo Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over? (11:57) Risks in The Stock Market (13:53) When Will Powell Pivot? (18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken (20:37) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:08) “Bittrex Ad” (28:42) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off (34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds (40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market (48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do? (52:33) Questions From The Audience (55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves (59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market (1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money? (1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility (1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg? (1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To? (1:09:31) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit Greg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book, American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Street’s Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous “robber baron” and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Gould’s unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of America’s most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Gould’s life. -- Follow Greg Steinmetz on Twitter Follow Jack Farley on Twitter Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter Follow Blockworks on Twitter Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould? (04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds (07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market (14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era (16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick" (20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022 (24:50) Jay Gould and the Media (27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated? (29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed" (33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century (37:03) Investor Psychology (41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould (45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies? (46:48) Gould and Valuation (49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy (52:46) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (“gilt”) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of England’s injection of liquidity was necessary in order to prevent the failure of a major institution. Bianco tells Farley that the Federal Reserve is not close to “pivoting” to a looser policy because the labor market remains strong. Bianco breaks down key bond market concepts, such as convexity and duration, explains why we are likely already in a recession, and argues that the work-from-home trend is here to stay. Filmed on Thursday, September 29th. -- Follow Jim Bianco Follow Jack Farley Follow Forward Guidance Follow Blockworks Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: https://bit.ly/3M1qNIU -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Chaos In the U.K. Government Bond ("Gilt") Market (08:53) What's Next To Break? (15:41) What Can Bring Inflation Down (Other Than A Global Recession)? (19:18) The Stress On Banks Is Tremendous" (33:46) Are Bonds Attractive At These Levels? (36:56) Bianco's Outlook on Stocks (38:47) I’m Going To Channel My Inner Zoltan Pozsar Here" (51:05) Why Working From Home Is A Permanent Trend (57:09) Closing Thoughts On The Labor Market and The Fed (1:02:14) Asset Allocation in Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto (1:04:49) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade “flat to down” in the short-term as he notes that China’s zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023. He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S.’ stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%. -- Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing? (05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk (12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil (16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil (36:18) The Gasoline Crisis (39:56) Coal (42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets (46:57) European Electricity Prices (50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics (54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil (1:02:18) U.S. Shale (1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up? (1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil? (1:16:35) About Commodity Context (1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment (1:20:57) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to “break” as investors pull capital out of risk assets and deploy it in cash and money market funds, which harvest yields on cash by investing them in ultra-short duration loans to extremely safe counterparties, primarily the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on September 22, 2022. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Follow Peter Crane on Twitter https://twitter.com/cranedata Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:10) Reflecting On the Fed's September FOMC Meeting (04:48) What Is A Money Market Fund? (14:37) What Will Break? (18:41) Maturity & Composition (25:31) Why Are There No Inflows Into Money Market Funds? (27:37) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (31:316) Who Invests In Money Market Funds? (39:19) Offshore Dollar Money Market Funds (43:03) New SEC Regulation on Money Market Funds ("Swing Pricing") (51:45) What Part of The Financial System Will Crack First? (1:05:12) How Bad Is Treasury Liquidity? (1:06:33) Pete Crane on Stablecoins (1:10:55) Joseph Wang On Sales of Mortgage-Backed Securities (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But that’s only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a “discount rate,” which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an “equity risk premium.” Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022. Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation -- Follow Aswath Damodaran on Twitter https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The "Sleep Test" (03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations (19:43) Equity Duration (40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies (44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks (52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values (59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value (1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards. Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit. Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on Twitter https://twitter.com/BlockworksDAS

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment. Filmed on September 6, 2022. -- Follow Oxbow Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/Oxbow_Advisors Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:38) Why Stocks Remain Overvalued (11:04) Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent (16:02) Energy (20:52) Fixed Income (28:14) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates (32:32) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (41:44) Contrarian View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will “crush” speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions. Filmed on September 8, 2022. -- Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter (04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation (06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed" (08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy (14:43) Natural Gas (16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming (21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021 (25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom (27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil (31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks (36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve (40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?" (48:25) The Dollar (56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation (58:40) Jared's Book & Concert -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Fed’s reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns. Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this “false dawn” is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug “leaks” in the financial plumbing. Filmed on September 7, 2022. -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets (10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months (15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting (24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model (32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices (38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance (43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap" (53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds (1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack interviews prolific author and journalist, Bethany McLean. McLean's known most prominently for her 2003 book, The Smartest Guys in The Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. With her coverage of financial scandals in the early 2000s, no one is better equipped for today's discussion about fraud, loopholes, and more. McLean interprets the seismic disruptions in the housing and energy market through her prior work on mortgage-securitizing giant Fannie Mae and on the American shale revolution. McLean argues that financial crimes always require the complicity of the victim, and contends that anyone who thinks they can predict the energy markets or inflation is sorely mistaken. -- Follow Bethany McLean on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bethanymac12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Was The Enron Fraud Allowed To Happen? (12:18) The Rise of Legal Fraud (19:07) Dotcom Bubble 2.0 and Private Equity (23:53) The Housing, Mortgage, and Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Markets (31:55) Inflation And The (Reverse) Wealth Effect (34:34) The Energy Crisis (46:00) Green Energy (48:20) McLean's New Book (49:26) Fictitious Billionaires And Other Hangovers From The 2020 Money Printing Bonanza -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- Every day, trillions of dollars worth of interest rate derivatives are traded back and forth. And yet despite its stunning size today, 50 years ago the interest rate derivative complex did not exist at all. Today Jack interviews Dr. Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX), who is known as the “father of financial futures” because he created the world’s first interest rate and bond futures in the 1970s. Sandor explains how the relentless inflation of the 1970s caused wild swings in interest rates that jeopardized financial stability, and how the financial futures he created helped tame (or at the very least, transfer) these risks. Sandor argues that the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) to which many interest rate futures (often called “eurodollar futures”) are still pegged has been “discredited” by the schemes of banks to manipulate it (see link below on LIBOR scandal). Sandor shares his vision for the forthcoming LIBOR replacement in June 2023, and tells Jack about his company’s benchmark, AMERIBOR. -- Article on LIBOR scandal: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor-scandal.asp More info on Dr. Richard Sandor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_L._Sandor Follow Dr. Richard Sandor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drrichardsandor Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Creating The World's First Interest Rate Future (18:16) Creating A Two-Sided Market (24:10) Paul Volcker's Role In Creating Interest Rate Volatility (27:00) Eurodollars: "LIBOR Is Dead, The Emperor Has No Clothes" (35:21) Replacements for LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) (47:44) Carbon Futures -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- With the summer rally in risk assets two weeks in the rear view mirror, Jack welcomes two experts on the plumbing of the monetary system, former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minsky” and writer of the “Soon Parted” newsletter. Neilson and Wang exchange views on just how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates in order to tame inflation, with Wang calling Fed chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole a “great performance.” Neilson shares insights on the changing size and composition of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, and then he proceeds to teach Jack about what the relative levels of various “repo” rates indicates about the supply and demand for Treasury collateral. Lastly, Neilson shares his views on government crackdown of crypto mixer Tornado Cash. Daniel H. Neilson is the principal of Neilson Macro Advisors and author of Minsky from Polity Books, and his newsletter is called Soon Parted. Filmed on August 31, 2022. -- Link to Daniel Neilson’s piece on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB): https://www.soonparted.co/p/defrag Link to Daniel Neilson’s piece on Tornado Cash: https://www.soonparted.co/p/tornado-cash Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Daniel Neilson’s writings can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Analysis of Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole (09:54) Inflation Expectations (17:17) Just How Far Behind The Curve Is The European Central Bank (ECB)? (29:38) Plumbing Of The Repo System (Warning: Very Advanced) (49:37) Tornado Cash -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit (sale ends Sunday): https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole. Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael “Mish” Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could “kill” the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as “cowardly” caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, “this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.” NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole. -- Follow Mish Shedlock on Twitter https://twitter.com/MishGEA Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wang’s work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Mish Shedlock’s writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/ Mish’s article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-july July FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Are We In A Recession Already? (05:48) Housing (15:00) Stagflation (19:58)The Stock Market (21:12) The Wang Pivot (29:27) The Commercial Banking System (35:16) Asset Allocation (36:51) Gold (39:53) The Pension Crisis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by Paul Latronica to discuss convertible bonds as an asset class, and more. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Are Convertible Bonds? (05:00) An Example (19:56) Correlation Between Convertible Bonds and Equity (33:13) Current Valuations (50:44) Finding Alpha In Convertible Bonds (55:20) Current Outlook (1:01:51) Avoiding Pitfalls (1:05:24) Greatest Risk For Convertible Bonds (1:09:33) The Federal Reserve (1:17:32) Most Frequent Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future. -- Subscribe to Sal Mercogliano's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercogliano Follow Sal Mercogliano on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation (15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry (22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes) (23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply (29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) (33:30) Learning From History (38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates (44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now? (47:11) Non-Owner Operators (52:26) Cruise Lines (1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates? (1:03:08) Individual Stocks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Fed’s balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a “buyback” program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QT’s volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue. Filmed on August 17, 2022. -- Read Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “The Marginal Buyer”: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wang’s work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Chris Whalen’s work can be found here: rcwhalen.com -- (00:00) Introduction (01:32) The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks (21:00) Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market (25:15) The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (32:30) The Fed's Banking "Stress Test" (43:43) Swelling Reverse Repo Facility (48:22) The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem (59:53) How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? (1:02:03) Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz. -- Use code MACRO200 to get discounted tickets to the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/?gclid=CjwKCAjwo_KXBhAaEiwA2RZ8hIgyUQTvJmP-g0qAclP5WXFdpLdZSLkarlMTWE9_Po341_j_x5FBBBoCojkQAvD_BwE -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Jeffrey Sherman, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, joins Jack to discuss how fixed income markets are handling a slowing economy and the Federal’s Reserve’s withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Sherman breaks down how bond values over 2022 have dropped as credit spreads have widened and interest rates have risen. Sherman shares his outlook on the corporate bonds, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sherman is circumspect after a strong two-month rally but thinks at this stage there is value to be found in agency & non-agency MBS as well as long-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on August 10, 2022. -- Follow The Sherman Show on Twitter https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPod Follow DoubleLine Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/DLineCap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:02) Are We In A Recession? (14:01 )The Inverted Yield Curve (22:25) Liquidity (33:09) The "End" Of Forward Guidance (41:17) Outlook on Long-Term Treasury Yields (46:55) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.