Forward Guidance

Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding. We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows. We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 06:36 Overhedged Market Setup 11:51 Why Volatility Misfires 15:11 Rotation Into Real Assets 18:12 Flows Over Fundamentals 22:00 Oil’s Inflation Corridor 29:48 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 31:25 Bear Flatteners, Bad Bonds 40:18 Wartime Capital Allocation 47:04 AI Compute Still Booming 55:01 Inflation Path, Not Politics 59:12 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIgcvSAxR2kJPUjPsa7gjWFQPszL8atC/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users. residing incertain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold. positions in thecompanies, funds, or projects discussed.

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface. In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support. We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins could reshape global dollar demand. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:11 Why Miran Dissented 04:51 Looking Through Oil Shocks 06:36 AI And Deregulation Disinflate 10:04 The Case For Neutral 12:30 What Sets Neutral Rates 16:12 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 17:50 Where "Running It Hot" Narrative Fails 25:02 Skinny Master Accounts 27:02 Stablecoins And Dollar Demand 30:51 Tokenized Deposits Or Stablecoins FOLLOW GUEST › Federal Reserve – https://x.com/federalreserve FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside. the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto— and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Global markets face a fragile moment where a geopolitical shock could collide with already restrictive monetary policy, creating a setup few investors are prepared for. Felix and Quinn sit down with Joseph Wang live at DAS New York to unpack today's chaotic macro landscape, focusing on how energy markets and central bank constraints are increasingly intertwined. We explore oil supply risks, the Fed’s policy trap, liquidity constraints, the ongoing banking regime shift, and how these forces could reshape risk assets and global growth. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:28 Middle East Drives Macro 06:21 Risk Assets Face A Lid 09:15 Will The Fed Look Through? 12:02 Why Liquidity Stays Tight 15:14 Dollar Up Gold Down 19:16 The Great Rebalancing 22:28 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham) 27:18 Where Liquidity Could Come From 31:04 Can They Steer It Back? 35:20 What Signals Actually Matter FOLLOW THE SHOW › Joseph - https://x.com/josephwang › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is forcing a rethinking of everything from energy and geopolitics to markets and human purpose while raising a deeper question: are we entering an era of abundance or losing control of the systems we’re building? Raoul Pal joins us live from DAS to break down how the AI arms race, liquidity dynamics, and crypto infrastructure are converging into a single macro narrative shaping the next cycle. We explore AI-driven abundance, crypto as agent infrastructure, oil and liquidity risks, tokenized data markets, and what human value looks like in an AI-dominated world. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:12 Oil Shock Meets Macro 05:22 AI Needs More Energy 07:19 The US China Race 08:53 Why Recessions Cannot Happen 12:03 Banks Will Provide Liquidity 15:24 AI Adoption Is Mispriced 18:41 Ads (Blockworks IR, Arkham) 20:15 Superintelligence Changes Everything 24:11 What Is Human Value 30:22 AI Agents Need Crypto 37:39 AI Meets Longevity FOLLOW GUEST › Raoul – https://x.com/RaoulGMI FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this special episode, we introduce Blockworks’ new investor relations platform for onchain businesses. As institutional capital continues to enter crypto markets, expectations around transparency, standardization, and professionalism are rising. But instead of replicating legacy systems, Blockworks IR takes a different approach, leveraging real-time, onchain data to create a more transparent, data-driven, and low-friction investor relations model. The platform combines curated analytics, branded investor portals, and white-glove advisory support into a single solution, helping teams tell a clearer, more credible story while giving investors a more efficient way to evaluate opportunities. Launched at the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Blockworks IR aims to fill a critical gap in the industry. Listen to learn more about the vision behind the product and what it means for the future of investor relations in crypto.

We explore a market caught between fragile stability and mounting geopolitical pressure, where central banks, energy shocks, and liquidity constraints collide in unpredictable ways. Quinn and Felix break down the latest Fed meeting, shifting rate expectations, and how global energy disruptions in the Middle East are reshaping macro positioning and investor sentiment. We cover energy shocks, policy paralysis, equity vulnerability, geographic imbalances, and why markets may be underestimating second-order effects across currencies, commodities, and risk assets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:12 Fed Meeting & Market Reaction 10:45 Foreign Central Bank Dilemma 14:40 Potential Export Ban & Downplaying Risks 18:55 Most Vulnerable Economies 22:08 Agriculture Complex & Financial Warfare 26:58 Ads (Arkham) 27:46 Russia Winning While the World Burns 29:58 Growth-Inflation Dilemma & Fragile Positioning 39:42 Transferring Vol, U.S Trade Balance 42:50 Risks to the U.S. & Global Domino Effect 48:07 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ARpAEgw6gVndjjSP2m882nsfMOkT4o68/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham isa crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform. that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and. most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility. varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing. said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth. We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy. We discuss oil shocks past and present, policy sequencing, bond market reactions, global currency impacts, and why markets may be underestimating the second-order effects of rising energy prices. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:30 Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022 10:13 Contrasting the 2008 & 1970s Oil Shocks 15:15 The Energy Shock Impact on Households 19:16 How Will Central Banks & Bonds React? 29:50 Ads (Arkham) 30:38 Oil Shock Sequence of Events 32:28 Iran War's Asymmetric Regional Impact 39:00 What Happens to Gold? 42:02 Understanding a Wartime Economy 46:36 Final Thoughts FOLLOW GUEST › X/Twitter – https://x.com/BobEUnlimited FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at. Digital AssetSummit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions. Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy. We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:46) Iran War Update (08:08) Jobs Data, Bonds and Economic Deterioration (15:22) Asymmetric Iran Impact - US vs Europe/Asia (21:30) Market Structure - Everyone Owns Puts (26:35) Ads (Arkham) (27:23) How Will Iran War Impact Rates and the Economy? (36:21) SPR Drawdown and Trump’s Strategic Position (47:19) People Ignoring Agriculture Complex (51:45) Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26) › Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14CFRydeUqk52UXPBW30wt-rcK5tuL-oK/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto. exchange and blockchainanalytics platform that allows traders and investors to look. inside the wallets of the besttraders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to. buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.