Forward Guidance

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Hugh Hendry, macro investor and former chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Jack Farley to make the case that central banks are not in control of the global monetary order. Hendry argues that an inverted yield curve is showing that the Federal Reserve is making a severe policy error. He insists that the rises in consumer prices is not “inflation” as he defines it because they are not due to the extending of credit by commercial banks. Hendry passionately exhorts the Chinese ruling class to empower the Chinese consumer and allow the Chinese Yuan (“RenMinBi”) to strengthen to what Hendry thinks is its true market value. Hendry tells Farley he expects commodity prices to remain high due to bad energy policy and he thinks that portfolio managers who are fueling the recent rally in risk assets are making a mistake. Filmed on August 4th, 2022. -- Follow Hugh Hendry on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (09:56) Why Rising Consumer Prices Is Not Inflation (11:06) The Energy Crisis (19:13) Paul Volcker (21:56) China and the Global "Glut of Saving" (28:09) The Eurodollar System (34:08) Is The Fed Effective (39:31) Did the Fed save the world in 2020 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/si… Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins. Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out. Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co. -- Follow TrustToken on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustToken Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain (07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain (17:05) Stablecoins (23:26) Tether (26:08) TrustToken's Structure (38:05) Lending Terms (47:34) Interest Rate Risks (49:13) Fee Structure (53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss (57:25) Lender Protections (59:45) Correlation Risk (1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others" (1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending (1:13:57) The Fed -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/sign-up -- Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire joins Jack Farley to talk all things housing: how has the housing market changed since 2019 and what will happen to homes as we approach a recession? Logan and Jack talk about inventory and rates in the housing market, as well as the challenges homebuyers may have entering this space. Does Logan think we will be able to get out this unhealthy real estate market soon? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the afternoon of August 1, 2022. -- Follow Logan Motashimi on Twitter https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) The Current Health of the Real Estate Market (12:37) Inventory (16:30) Building Homes in the Early 2000's (22:06) Rates (31:51) Signs of a Recession (48:44) Challenges in the Housing Market (55:38) The State of Housing (1:04:16) Effects of a Housing Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ -- Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis. Filmed on August 4, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the “commodity supercycle” thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in “intermission” because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (“duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar. Filmed on August 1, 2022. -- Follow Tian Yang on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing (10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall? (21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone? (26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. (31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy? (37:02) European Stocks (38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over? (45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue (51:40) Term Premium, Explained (57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation (1:02:08) Potential Hedges (1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting). – Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions (07:09) Forward Volatility (10:53) New Outlooks (19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade (22:00) Navigating High Environments (27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio (33:15) The Nature Of Money (37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility (44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors (49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed (54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market (57:05) Short Squeezes (1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies (1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this! Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity) (15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor? (28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs (33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth" (35:26) Shorting SPACs (48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC) (50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies (53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes (56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders (1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT). Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market. Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation. -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:01) A Slowing Economy (06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly? (10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden (15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike? (19:39) Liquidity and Volatility (28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization (36:05) The Crypto World (37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities (42:18) China (48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth (51:59) China Is Running Out of Dollars (57:48) The Dollar Milkshake (1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities. Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia. -- Follow Tracy Shuchart on Twitter https://twitter.com/chigrl Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections (04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets (06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas? (11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand (14:09) Structural Supply Deficit (16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing (23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money? (24:30) Comparing Profit Margins (26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities (31:40) The Shorter Term (33:22) Commodities (35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm (37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates (39:30) Coal (41:03) Hedging Issues (43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities (48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks (49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation (53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally don’t have. What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors. -- Follow Kyrill Asatur on Twitter https://twitter.com/wallsthobbes Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Macro at Centerfin (03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor (08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed (18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble (22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds (30:30) Distressed Bonds (32:41) Thinking About Size (38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital (41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make (44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin? (47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto (53:36) Macro Hedge Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more. Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But that’s not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections. Filmed on July 7, 2022. -- Follow Nick Reece on Twitter https://twitter.com/nicholastreece Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle (11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble (18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation (21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle (28:54) Bit.com Ad (29:25) Recession on a Global Scale (32:10) PMIs (37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation (45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve (46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle (49:17) Asset Allocation (58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio (1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity (1:04:58) Are We In A Recession? (1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Link to Rick Rule’s Symposium on Natural Resource Investing: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorks Rick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: don’t overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register. Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe. Filmed on July 5, 2022. -- Follow Rick Rule on Twitter https://twitter.com/RealRickRule Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:29) Commodity Thesis (04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession (10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand? (14:52) Oil (26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe (35:20) Natural Resource Symposium (39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned (48:53) Uranium (55:00) Natural Gas (57:07) Specific Stocks (1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks (1:04:58) Copper and Iron (1:07:32) Hedging (1:13:10) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as “the silent depression.” Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around. -- Follow Emil Kalinowski on Twitter https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The World's Third Depression (14:25) Recession Trends (16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression (24:25) Banker Greed (30:28) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Speculation During A Depression (34:31) Inflation (44:23) The Euro Dollar System (51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System (53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy (1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth. After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ =- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth (07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021 (11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario (17:44) Current Market Liquidity (28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies (33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs (40:50) Risk of Recession (46:58) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (“the wolf”) and a striking economic downturn (“the bear”) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world. Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly. -- Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValek Follow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferle Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: 2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Background (06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble (26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time (40:45) Bit.com (41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook (54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook (1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot? (1:14:00) Counterparty Risk -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy? Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions. -- Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling (05:00) What Is A Recession? (07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation (09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing (17:36) Timeline of a Recession (24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex (32:13) Demographics and Inflation (41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation (53:45) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now. Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun. -- Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections (19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect (24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating (29:20) Looking at Economic Trends (35:02) Bit.com Ad (35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution (40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs (42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies (46:50) Zombie Companies (48:45) The Big Tech Companies (53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year (59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve (1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors (1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries (1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades (1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ (1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market (1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level. We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://twitter.com/bennpeifert Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background (05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders (08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off (13:57) The VIX (19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk (24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market (28:00) Single-Stock Volatility (33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers? (39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility (48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx") (55:35) Common Options Mistakes (1:01:00) The Macro (1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a “collar” a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the “fireworks” in the S&P 500 may not start until July. Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022. -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso “Alf” Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterday’s action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Fed’s revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Alfonso Peccatiello’s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details -- The Fed’s June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) FOMC Overview (06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop? (09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate (12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock (17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation? (23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation (29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio? (41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Fed’s much-desired “soft landing,” a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices. Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (“R*”), financial repression, and demand destruction. -- Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Juliette Declercq on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulietteJDI Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter ____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro? (04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy? (10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing (21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation? (26:20) Bit.com Ad (26:52) The End Of Free Money (29:54) Europe (34:14) Shorting Equities (38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro" (44:07) Asset Allocation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022. Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Joseph on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.com Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/ Alf’s latest piece, “The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE,” can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#details Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter

In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets. Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more. This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Michel Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) What Is Liquidity? (09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity (13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window (24:50) Is This Unprecedented? (28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile? (30:16) The Fed And The VIX (33:16) Inflation and Recession (36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do? (39:20) Gold and Crypto (41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role (45:17) The People's Bank of China (46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have? (49:12) The Commercial Banking System (53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed? (1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations (1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit? (1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity" (1:12:55) China (1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack is joined by none other than the Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman, who shares why he is “wildly” bullish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) even as the Federal Reserve is in the process of reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT). Bassman explains why long-term interest rates have shot up by so much and makes the case that, while he is confident that inflation will continue to run hot, the sell-off in long-duration Treasurys may not continue. Bassman goes on to explain the significance of the spike in interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, his creation, and shares several investment theses on municipal bonds and equity LEAPs. Filmed on Friday, June 3, 2022. -- Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Referenced In The Show: “The Water Is Warm In The MBS Pool”: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Pool.pdf “Fire Insurance - Revisited”: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Convexity-Maven-Fire-Insurance-Revisited.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Historic Bond Sell-Off (09:48) Credit Vol (17:14) Is There A Powell Put On Credit? (21:56) Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) Money Burning? (25:05) Bit.com Ad (33:49) Yield Curve Inversion (41:26) Outlook on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (44:59) Pre-Payment and Extension Risk (51:42) Will MBS Convexity Humble the Fed? (1:00:08) Bassman's Highest Conviction View (1:03:38) Municipal Bonds (1:04:42) Longer-Dated Calls on Equity Indices -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes Michael Kao, retired hedged manager and private investor, on Forward Guidance for a wide-ranging conversation on liquidity, energy markets, cryptocurrency, and convertible bond arbitrage. Kao argues that risk assets have benefited from a “liquidity lottery” of quantitative easing and low rates, and that as a result financial markets are in a huge bubble that reminds him of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. Kao explains why he is skeptical about the value of digital assets, and he does a deep dive into the capital structure of MicroStrategy ($MSTR). Important disclosure: Kao recently entered a short position in $MSTR. Kao is a veteran investor with a wealth of expertise in options pricing, commodity trading, convertible bond arbitrage, and global macro. He has over three decades of investing experience at Goldman Sachs, Canyon Capital Advisors, as well as Akanthos Capital Management, his own hedge fund. Nothing in this podcast should be considered as investment advice. Filmed on June 2, 2022. -- Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter To get in touch with Jack Farley about sponsoring Forward Guidance, email [email protected]. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Michael Kao's Background (08:30) The New Dotcom Bubble 2.0 (22:50) The Rho Hedge War Story From 2008 (29:16) Will The Fed Pivot? Can The Fed Pivot? (34:45) MMT (42:05) The Energy Crisis (49:16) The Black Swan For American Oil (59:09) Speculative Bubbles As Inflation Capacitors (1:02:12) How Do You Value Crypto? (1:10:05) Housing Bubble? (1:11:14) Will QT Steepen The Yield Curve? (1:14:38) Digital Assets (1:18:00) How MicroStrategy Funds Its Bitcoin Purchases (1:28:58) "He's Not In Trouble Right Now" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure Of Common Sense,” thinks that those who take the Federal Reserve at its word are making a serious error. McDonald wastes little time to argue that the Federal Reserve’s assurances that it will tighten monetary policy (by raising rates and reducing its balance sheet) amount to little more than a “sham”: a series of promises that it can never keep, because doing so would plunge the United States into a deep recession. McDonald explains that, while he does not expect the S&P 500 to reach a new high for several years, he is anticipating a sharp rally in risk assets as the Federal Reserve tones down its hawkish rhetoric and abandons the most extreme of its measures to moderate inflation. McDonald argues that this supportive liquidity environment will drag the U.S. Dollar down and give an even greater lift to the ongoing bull market in energy as well as other hard assets such as gold. Filmed on May 31, 2022. -- Larry McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/larry_macdonald Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Can The Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet? (04:36) The Fed's Choice Between Stagflation and a Recession (09:39) How High Can The Fed Get? (19:27) Dot-com Bubble 2.0? (24:23) Outlook on S&P 500 (27:25) Bit.Com (27:55) The Energy Trade (31:44) Have We Reached Full Panic Mode Yet? (34:45) Commercial Real Estate (36:52) Shorting The U.S. Dollar (41:27) Inflation and Deglobalization (45:08) ESG Investing (49:25) Global Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Josh Young is the founder and chief investment officer of Bison Interests, an energy investment fund whose returns since October 2020 are ranked #1 in the HFM database. Young argues that, despite the phenomenal performance of the energy sector over the past 18 months, there are upstream producers that remain extremely undervalued relative to their current cash flows. Young explains why he thinks many of the major oil companies are “burning capital” and why he prefers smaller producers that are not on the radar of many investors flooding into the space. He shares his views on ESG, divestment, and the idea of a “carbon bubble.” This conversation is not investment advice. Filmed on May 27, 2022. -- Follow Josh Young on Twitter https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Bison Interests on Twitter https://twitter.com/BisonInterests Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Today’s episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at [email protected]. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Background (01:01) Supply Constraints (21:38) Is Energy Investing Just A Bet On The Price Of Oil? (33:04) Risks To The Energy Trade (56:14) Company-Specific Analysis (1:17:14) Is There A Carbon Bubble? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Paul Hodges returns in a deep discussion on inflation, China, and the Federal Reserve. Paul joins Jack Farley to discuss recession and recession risk in Europe, China, and the U.S., as well as the fate of inflated hyper-growth stocks. -- Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (13:45) Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks? (21:24) Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks (23:15) Tesla (27:23) Ben Graham's Valuation Rules (30:03) Bit.com Ad (30:34) Recession In Europe (42:39) Recession Risk in the U.S. (46:10) Housing (49:05) The Federal Reserve (52:14) Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals (56:00) Recession in China (1:07:07) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices. Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the world’s most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to “slip on a banana skin” as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wang’s message to the viewers banking on a “Powell Put” is even more stark: “wake the ____ up.” -- Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/. Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/. -- Today’s episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at [email protected]. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Banana Skins In This Market (13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative (23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse (30:50) Ad (36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control? (41:18) The Dollar and Bonds (50:28) Bretton Woods III (59:55) Inflationary Hikes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system? Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_@FedGuy12 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserve’s continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle. __ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Intro (02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar (15:32) New Bretton Woods (17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go? (19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge? (26:36) Bit.com Ad (27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas (39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance) (46:08) Junior Gold Miners (53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have (55:56) Jurisdictional Risk (1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine (1:06:26) The Future Of Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag. Alfonso’s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced: “What If?”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r “A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r Alfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions (08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model (12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons (15:44) Shorting The S&P 500 (19:17) BCB Ad (20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe (22:53) Credit Spreads (29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot (35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy? (47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets. __ Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over? (04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album (13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects (16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy (18:46) ARKK (22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets (27:26) Where Is The Fed Put? (31:53) Bit.com Ad (32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation? (37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks (40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation (41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets (46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction? (50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation (51:40) Inflation in Europe (52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball (56:06) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights. Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are “toast” and that goldilocks is “dead.” Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the “ARKK” stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix. As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): “know what you own.” George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Background (06:55) The Everything Bubble (13:36) The Powell Pivot (20:58) ARKK (25:43) BCB Ad (26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets (39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No) (41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go? (43:22) Netflix and Amazon (50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now" (52:50) Energy (59:30) Crypto (1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “Forward Guidance,” Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as “Doomberg,” a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer. Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations. Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called “environmentalists” led to its embrace of coal. -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited) -- (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Start of Doomberg (05:27) Core Energy Thesis (12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal (14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas (19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy (34:00) Bit.com Ad (34:30) Nuclear Power (39:20) Farmers On The Brink (47:30) Oil (54:57) Renewables (01:08:36) Questions From Audience -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Opening Thoughts (08:05) Powell's "Codewords" (15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow (22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible? (27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak? (47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President (51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems (53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks? (1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?

Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley and former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang to share her outlook on this week’s FOMC meeting. Booth argues that the Federal Reserve’s lateness to fight inflation has caused it to lose a lot more credibility, and makes the case that it risks to lose even more credibility if it fails to recognize that the economy is slowing rapidly. Booth notes that credit spreads are widening rapidly and argues that it will be a credit market blow-up, not an equity market drawdown, that forces the Federal Reserve to change course. Wang and Booth discuss how rising mortgage rates will deter the Fed from shrinking its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and they each give their take on the continued sell-off in Treasury bonds.Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter @DiMartinoBooth Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income & repo at Curvature Securities, joins former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and host Jack Farley to share his insights from deep within the repo markets. Skyrm explores whether the Fed’s forthcoming balance sheet runoff will agitate repo markets like last time in September 2019, when repo rates spiked higher. Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) and Wang (@FedGuy12) weigh important considerations, such as the Fed’s involvement with the market and what current repo rates indicate about the level of bond shorting. Skyrm tells Farley (@JackFarley96) that the trillions of Treasury collateral that the market will have to absorb over the next year will drain the ~$1.8 Trillion in Fed’s reverse repo facility, yank repo rates higher, and eventually cause the market to rely once again on the Fed’s standing repo facility. -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack

Jack’s next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro. Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had “the everything short” (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does. Filmed on Tuesday, April 26. -- Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022 (04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022 (05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly (07:58) The Fed's Key Error (11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth (16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market (23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish (26:14) Bit.com Ad (26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3 (28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade (30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields (38:35) When Will Powell Pivot? (41:30) Gold (42:25) Crypto If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. -- Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia (07:08) Oil & Natural Gas (09:30) Wheat (14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk (18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:20) Central Bank Response Function (27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation (32:02) BCB Ad (35:45) The Dollar's Surge (1:20:36) Breton Woods III

“Liquidity” is a critical concept in markets that many may have heard, but few truly understand. Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the global liquidity flows. He breaks down what liquidity is and he explains to Jack Farley how the tide of liquidity that has lifted asset prices over the past two years is reversing very quickly. Howell argues that, since 95% of central banks are tightening at the same time, the short-term risk/reward for stocks is poor, and he thinks a further 20% correction is ahead for the equity market. Howell explains the complex yield curve dynamics, and explains why the ongoing liquidity collapse might finally make long-term government bonds attractive once again. Filmed on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. A note on the title: Howell’s expectation of a 30% in stocks is from peak-to-trough, and since equities are down nearly 10% already, that would equate to a further fall of 20% from current levels (not 30% from current levels). _ Follow Cross Border Capital on Twitter @crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) What Is Liquidity? (10:59) The Turbulence Zone (21:06) What Will Be The First To Break? (23:58) Why Are Stocks And Credit Still So Richly Priced? (26:35) But What About Inflation? (32:24) Bit.com Ad (43:32) Can China Save the Day? (47:05) Why Falling Liquidity Causes A Dollar Squeeze (50:33) How High Oil Prices Further Deteriorate Liquidity (53:04) History of Global Liquidity (56:28) Capital Wars and Bretton Woods III (1:08:25) Is The Yield Curve Signaling A Recession? (1:09:56) How Far Will The Fed Get With QT? (Bagehot's Dictum)

DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks. -- DC on Twitter: @AnalystDC Joseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- Links ___ Liberty Street Economics, "The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility": https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/ Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-move DC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=r Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/ -- (00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst (02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries? (14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen (20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries? (31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More? (37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No) (42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell? (46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities (57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-Hike

An oft-cited fact is that rising rates support the profitability of the commercial banking system. Chris Whalen, veteran banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors & Author of The Institutional Risk Analyst begs to differ. Whalen explains to Farley that banks make money by the spread between their yield on their loans and their cost of funds, and that while rising rates do increase loan yields, they also increase banks’ cost of funds. Whalen also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve will be unable to do Quantitative Tightening because it will be stuck with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for many years. -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) Inflation (18:13) The Problem The Fed Faces with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (21:08) Can the Federal Reserve Become Insolvent? (24:57) Mortgage Lending At Commercial Banks27 (27:32) BCB Ad (28:20) Are Rising Rates Good For Banks? (31:54) Why A Recession Is Likely? (34:51) Outlook on Bank Stocks and U.S. Treasuries (44:00) Biggest Risk: Non-Bank Lenders (48:31) Credit Card Lending (51:16) Will Banks Suffer Losses from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine? (54:40) European Banks (58:35) Jack's Post-Conversation Explanation

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged. Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected]. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now? (12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (21:29) The Stock Market (30:22) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Commodities (36:25) Gold (44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control (1:06:18) Bitcoin

Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and George Goncalves to discuss the bond market, plumbing, inflation & more. -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow George Goncalves @bondstrategist Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory. -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War (06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War? (15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War? (18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South (24:02) BCB Ad (25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas (34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession? (37:36) Inflation (42:28) The Fed (47:03) Final Reflection on President Lincoln

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Background and Framework (05:01) Commodity Overview (11:00) Oil & Natural Gas (23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March (31:07) Backwardation & Contango (34:30) Bearish On Soybeans (39:26) Wheat (41:08) Shipping (46:08) Bearish Copper (48:50) Dollar Strength (50:32) Germany (55:40) Bitcoin

Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'. Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V -- Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle. Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle. -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021 (03:57) Forecasting A Recession (08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation (14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe (16:42) Oil Market Outlook (19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy (25:12) BCB Group Ad (26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy? (39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil (41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World (57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market (1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond