Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management joins Forward Guidance to help define what a bubble is. By his strict definition, nothing qualifies right now. But as money flows into risk assets, valuations become stretched. Treussard has trouble with the high valuations in the U.S. market, and sees opportunities in the cheaper European and Japanese markets. He also shares his views on the risk of the “engineered yield” that comes from strategies that sell options explicitly or implicitly. Filmed on April 2, 2024. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us About Treussard Capital Management: https://www.treussard.com/ 2004 Paper on Bubbles with Earl Thompson and Charles Hickson: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp836.pdf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Hallmarks Of A Financial Bubble: New Technology and Valuations Stretching Far Beyond Fundamentals (05:24) How Bubbles Remake Social Orders (07:25) Credit Bubbles Vs. Equity Bubbles (10:00) The Rise of Private Credit (11:44) In Wealth Management, Private Credit Tends To Be "More Sold Than Bought" (15:25) Private Credit Is "Concerning" But "Not A Bubble" (17:05) U.S. Stocks Are Expensive (19:55) Trade Wars & Geopolitical Blockades Are A Serious Risk To Nvidia (26:49) Europe and Japan (29:08) VanEck Ad (30:10) T-Bill And Chill Has Been Drastically Outperformed By Stock Market Beta (31:03) Investment Framework For The New Cold War (43:58) How Option Theory Applies To Economics, Investing, And Life (49:35) Jonathan's Work As A Risk Manager During 2008 (55:53) Beware "Engineered Yield" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024. __ Blind Squirrel Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/SquirrelMacro Blind Squirrel Macro Substack https://t.co/mgOvPYwOAi Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Piece on Ben Graham’s Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker (03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s (13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market (20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started? (23:55) VanEck Ad (24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business (29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market (36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh (40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales (44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds (50:18) Tesla (53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.) (54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers (01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis (01:12:50) Macro (01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis (01:22:12) Options __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jason Hsu of Rayliant joins Forward Guidance to share his view on the particulars of the Chinese equity market. Hsu argues that the “brutal” bear market is close to over and makes the bull case for onshore Chinese stocks. Recorded on March 28, 2024. __ Jason Hsu on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu/ About Rayliant https://rayliant.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The "Brutal" Bear Market In Chinese Equities (12:49) In China, It's Not The Homebuyers Who Are Indebted... It's The Builders (aka Developers) (19:31) Spillovers Of China's Real Estate Correction (23:41) Impact of Real Estate Issues On China's Banking System (26:39) Beijing's Biggest Fixation: How To Avoid Japanese Real Estate Bust Of 1990s (33:58) Regulatory Scrutiny On Tech And Other Industries Has Been Reduced (38:09) VanEck Ad (38:52) 5-10 Years From Now, People Will Look At Now AS Bottom In Chinese Equities (39:55) China's Ambition To Move Up The Value Chain (43:04) Just How Cheap Are Chinese Stocks? (43:59) Who Are The Investors In The Chinese Stock Market? (46:08) Immense Pessimism Has Gripped Chinese Stock Investors (47:16) What Causes Chinese Stocks To Go Up Or Down? (49:06) China's Role In Emerging Market Equity Portfolios (51:50) What Moves Emerging Market (EM) Stocks As A Category? (55:53) Latin American, Middle East, and Africa (57:23) The Role of Diversification and "Quantamental" Analysis (01:04:45) State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - What Do Investors Really Own? (01:08:29) Biggest Overweights. (Mexico) and Underweights (India) (01:11:00) Mechanics Of "The Beijing Put" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Lawrence McDonald, New York Times Bestselling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book, “When Markets Speak.” McDonald argues that the world is on the precipice of a higher-inflation regime that will cause a multi-trillion dollar migration of capital from technology stocks to producers of natural resources such as oil, gas, copper, Uranium, and gold. Filmed on March 27, 2024. __ Follow Lawrence McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/Convertbond McDonald’s latest book, “When Markets Speak”: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities/dp/0593727495 McDonald’s first book, “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers”: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=9F5dM&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=wepDC&pd_rd_r=e57c52f3-38c7-4f25-bf51-8a804dfd2f13&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) The End Of Austerity: Huge Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Has Created A New Inflationary Age (08:07) A Multi-Trillion Migration Of Capital Is Underway, Argues McDonald (08:46) A New Commodity Bull Market Is Forming (15:58) Oil & Gas (18:09) Uranium (21:22) China (27:17) Is NVIDIA A Bubble? (33:22) VanEck Midroll (34:05) What This Means For Broad Index Investors (38:37) Financial Repression And Debt Jubilee (48:16) The Banking System (50:26) Recession Risk (01:01:55) How To Listen When Markets Speak __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ This is a recorded version of Jack’s macro panel at the 2024 Digital Asset Summit hosted by Blockworks, recorded in London on March 19, 2024. Macro analysts (and previous Forward Guidance guests) Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, and Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro (ex-Brevan Howard) share their outlook on the global economy, stocks, bonds, currencies, and Bitcoin. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s work https://fedguy.com/ Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Julian’s work https://t.co/qdroC4L86V Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Michael’s work https://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Jonny’s work https://super-macro.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Will Stocks Continue To Crush Bonds? (07:24) U.S. Economy Continues To Outperform Rest Of World (12:37) Financial Conditions Are Very Loose Despite Fed's Rapid Rise In Interest Rates (17:52) VanEck Ad (22:57) Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Continuing To Rise (30:17) Interest Rates And The Dollar (31:47) Views On Crypto (38:33) Concluding Prediction On Stocks Bonds And Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors and publisher of The Solid Ground Newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to share how China’s decision to peg its currency the Chinese Yuan in 1994 at an artificially low rate had enormous consequences on world’s monetary system, and why China may be soon be forced to make a monetary policy decision regarding its currency which may have similarly large consequences for the globe. Filmed on March 13, 2024. Russell is the author of two books, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms” and “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt.” __ Russell Napier’s newsletter, The Solid Ground: https://russellnapier.co.uk/ Russell’s first book, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms”: https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-Lessons-Streets-bottoms/dp/0857195220/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Russell Napier’s second book, “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt”: https://www.amazon.com/Asian-Financial-Crisis-1995-98-Birth/dp/0857199145/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) How To Spot A Change In Monetary Policy (03:50) Birth Of The Age Of Debt (08:43) Chinese Surpluses Are Getting Smaller (14:10) China's Choice Between Deflation Or Devaluation (18:23) China's Growth Requires Massive Expansion In Narrow Money (27:10) VanEck Ad (27:53) Is China The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Ever? (30:35) PBOC Likely To Move To Flexible Exchange Rate In Order To Achieve Their Goals In Controlling Price And Quantity of Money (33:53) Is Foreign Lending Contingent Upon U.S. Dollar Reserves? (36:29) The Origin of The Chinese Stock Market In 1992 (39:11) Valuations of China's Stock Market (41:33) Buy Cheap Currencies, Not Cheap Companies (54:11) Napier's Views On Japanese Currency And Stock Market (58:51) The Lessons Of Quantitative Easing (QE) (01:01:27) The Future of Japanese Monetary Policy (01:03:10) The Interest Rate Shock Has Not Broken Something. Why? Will This Continue? (01:06:16) Are Higher Interest Rates Deflationary Or Inflationary? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Dr. Ingo Sauer of Goethe University Frankfurt joins Forward Guidance to share findings from his 360 paper on Hyperinflation in 1923 and its connection to central bank insolvency. Sauer argues that severe impairment of central bank assets, and not the printing of vast amounts of central bank liabilities (money), was the primary cause of extreme inflation witnessed 101 years ago in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Poland. Sauer inverts the causal line of exchange rate depreciation, money supply increase, and inflation, and he also shares his concern about the current state of the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Filmed on March 5, 2024. __ Ingo Sauer’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@wissenhatkeineneigentumeri9889 Ingo Sauer’s 360 page paper, “The Lessons from 1923 for the Euro Area: Enlightening the Dark Side of (In-) Solvent Central Banks’ Balance Sheets”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4620462 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Overview Of Dr. Sauer's Theory On The Ultimate Cause of Hyperinflation: Central Bank Insolvency (07:05) Dr. Sauer's Concerns About The Euro (11:22) Setting The Stage For German Hyperinflation in 1923 (14:33) The German Mark During World War I (21:40) The Assets Of The Reichsbank Increasingly Became Dominated By German Government Obligations (Not Commercial Bills / Collateral Advances / Gold) (30:03) Central Bank Insolvency (Not Money Supply Increase) Caused Hyperinflation in 1923 (34:53) VanEck Ad (36:48) Failed Attempts To Stabilize German Mark And Inflation, 1919-1922 (41:44) Reichsbank's Holdings Of German Treasury Bills Highly Correlated To (In)Solvency Factor (45:01) Explaining Sauer's "Solvency Factor" (47:29) The Mark's Short-Lived Rally In 1920 (51:10) Marker (57:09) The Mechanics Of Central Bank Insolvency (59:40) Reichsmark Insolvency Led To Depreciation Of The Mark, Which Led To Hyperinflation (01:02:34) Money Supply Did Not Cause Hyperinflation, Argues Sauer (01:15:09) The Explosion In Reichsbank's Money Supply Was Mostly Paper Cash, Not Bank Reserves (01:23:03) Reparations' Impact On German Solvency (01:27:22) The Rentenmark And The Halting Of German HyperInflation (01:30:47) Central Bank Profits and Yield Curve Dynamics (01:34:58) European Debt Crisis (2009-2015) (01:36:45) Fed As Dealer Of Last Resort, European Central Bank (ECB) As Market Maker Of Last Resort (01:38:06) ECB Is Less A Central Bank And More Of A "Headquarters" For Domestic Euro Central Banks (such as Bank of France, for example) (01:40:23) Origin Of Fed, And Clearinghouse Loan Certificates As National Currency Before The Fed (01:44:18) Why Has ECB Balance Sheet Expansion Post 2008 Coincided With Disinflation (Or Deflation), And Not Hyperinflation? (01:47:44) Sauer's Fears About The ECB And The Euro (02:00:46) The Mechanics Of Monetary Financing (02:18:32) Interest Rate Risk Is Not A Systemic Concern __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though the rapid rise in interest rates has rendered many commercial real estate (CRE) deals uneconomic, the fundamentals in multi-family (i.e. apartments) remain strong, notes Halaris, in part due to high levels of immigration. Nonetheless, many new deals are being done at “negative leverage” - that is to say, the cost of debt exceeds the cap rate on the deal and the property’s cash flows are less than the interest expense. Halaris thinks the sell-off in office might be so bad that the asset class might have bottomed out. He remains very bullish on the single-family housing market. Filmed on March 12, 2024. __ Follow Nick Halaris on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris’ Newsletter Profit + https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/subscribe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Overview of Commercial Real Estate (04:24) Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) Have Been Stronger Than Expected (06:49) Immigration As A Tailwind For Housing & Multifamily Demand (08:43) Projects Are Being Cancelled Because Of High Rates (11:09) Interest Rate Shock Has Rendered Many Deals Uneconomic (18:58) Potential Value In Office Sector Of Commercial Real Estate (CRE)? (22:22) Nick's Long-Term Bull Thesis For Real Estate (26:25) VanEck Ad (27:11) CRE's Impact On The U.S. Banking System (29:31) Interestingly, Private Credit Funding Has Not Gotten More Expensive (31:28) Nick Is Flipping A House To Stay Busy (Do Not Do This At Home) (34:12) Housing Bull Market Is Fundamentally Different From 2003-2006... Not Speculative Bubble (I.E. Buying To Flip) (38:18) New York Community Bank (NYCB) (59:03) Final Thoughts On Valuation Difference Between Public and Private Real Estate Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S. equities. Sonders notes that a handful of large cap stocks have been leading the S&P 500 index higher, while the majority of stocks have been underperforming the index. While this so-called “breadth weakness” occurred at or near stock market peaks of 1999 and 2000, Sonders notes that breadth is strengthening. The phrase “Magnificent 7” is near-meaningless since, as of mid-March, the Mag7 includes both the best performing stock in the S&P 500 (Nvidia) and the worst performing stock (Tesla). Sonders argues that there is no such thing as a “typical” Fed interest rate cutting cycle, and that slower cutting cycles have tended to coincide alongside more bullish stock market action than fast cutting cycles. Filmed on March 4, 2024. __ Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-londonTimestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Rally In S&P 500 Has Been Ferocious, The Rally In Average Stocks Has Not (04:22) Large Cap Stocks Are Leading The S&P 500 Higher... Smaller Names Have Performed Less Well (09:31) Earnings Growth Is Very Strong (Unlike In 2000) (12:16) Companies' Earnings Guidance Is Less Specific Than Pre-2020 (16:47) Economic Outlook In U.S.: Rolling Re-acceleration (20:13) Labor Market Situation Has Been "Mirror Image" Of What Normally Happens (22:05) This Economic Cycle Has Been An "Orange" Compared To History's "Apples" (22:29) VanEck Ad (24:53) There Is No Such Thing As A "Typical" Fed Rate Cutting Cycle (30:57) Slower Cutting Cycles Have Been Somewhat More Bullish Than Rapid Cutting Cycles (36:27) Artificial Intelligence (AI) (43:17) Quality As A Factor (45:39) Momentum Has Been "Best Performing Factor Year-To-Date" (49:37) Size and Value As Factors __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's piece on Real Rates: https://fedguy.com/higher-real-rates-for-longer/ More about Wrightson ICAP: https://www.wrightson.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Reverse Repo Decline Driven By A) Decline In Fed's Balance Sheet And B) Increased Supply Of Treasury Bills And C) Private Repo Market Demand (05:45) The Liquidity Demands Of The Basis Trade (Long Cash Treasurys / Short Treasury Futures) Is Drawing Money Out Of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (12:40) VanEck Ad (13:22) Lou's Accurate Prediction On Why Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Would Not Be Renewed (It Wasn't) (17:10) Fed's Balance Sheet Policy: Quantitative Tightening (QT) (25:30) Summary From Jack (27:01) Money Market Data Could Indicate QT Will Continue For Longer (28:28) DAS Ad (33:14) Interest Rate Outlook On Fed Cutting Cycle (37:17) Inflation And Real Interest Rates (43:43) Potential Government Shutdown In U.S.?? (46:33) Tax Season Approaches! The Plumbing Of Refunds (49:31) Joseph's Closing Thoughts On U.S. Fiscal Situation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Luigi Zingales on Twitter https://twitter.com/zingales?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow Capitalisn't https://www.capitalisnt.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Is It Time To Investigate The Fed? (01:45) There Needs To Be A Sacrificial Lamb (07:21) Accountability In The Private Sector (11:20) Activist Investors Can Help If Company's Issues Are Financial In Nature (15:49) Potential Solutions: Whistleblowers And Abolition Of NDAs (17:39) VanEck Ad (18:36) Moving Beyond Sarbanes-Oxley (26:26) ESG Space Has Attracted A Lot Of "Charlatans" Precisely Because The Issue Is So Important (33:37) The Future of Financial Technology (FinTech) (36:42) A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Would Be "Much More Efficient" (43:22) With CBDC, All Short-Term Demand Deposits Would Be With Fed, and Commercial Banks Would Fund Themselves With Term Deposits (i.e. CDs) (46:47) On Economics As A Field (48:52) Has U.S. Entered A New Era Of Secularly Higher Growth? (50:07) Are Interest Rates Too Restrictive? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. He sees signs of an exhaustive peak and expects a decline, which could either be a corrective move in the middle of a bull market or the beginning of a true bear market. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton More About Milton Berg: https://www.miltonberg.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Milton's Buy Signals Have Continued To Appear In The Stock Market (06:11) This Bull Market Is Unique In Its Strength, And It Its Weakness (10:53) Indicators That Suggest A Stock Market Top In February 2024 (15:20) Why Milton Is Leaning Bearish (24:05) Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts And Earnings Cycle (Milton Disagrees That These Are Bullish Factors) (30:55) There's Lots Of Momentum In This Market - But It's Not Bullish Momentum (35:28) Banking Index Is Behaving Strangely (40:37) Evidence This Could Be A Blow-Off Top (49:33) VanEck Ad (50:16) This Is Not A Healthy Market (52:34) The Permabears Could Finally Be Right (53:13) Speculation In Blue Chip Companies Is Extreme (Although Speculation In Unprofitable Companies Is Not) (01:00:09) Mind The GAP! (01:05:29) Portrait Of A Sick Market (01:07:22) New Highs In Europe And Japan - Milton Isn't Impressed! (01:10:48) China (01:12:37) Cycle Dates (01:16:54) Climax Top In SuperMicro (SMCI) - Milton Was Long But Has Flipped Short (01:21:31) If There's A New Bear Market In 2024, It Will Probably Cause A Recession (Unlike In 2022) (01:26:35) Milton's Long-Only Portfolio (01:28:26) Milton's Short List Of Overextended Stocks (Including Nvidia) (01:33:12) Would A Forthcoming Sell-off Be A Corrective Move During a Bull Market Or The Beginning Of A New Bear Market? (01:35:29) Alibaba, Paypal, and Berkshire Hathaway (01:36:43) A Review Of The Buy And Sell Signals __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Remi on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheKingCourt Remi’s Substack, “The Mad King”: https://onemadking.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Stock Market Rally Has "Room To Go" But Tetot Is "Cautious" Around Nosebleed Valuations (06:11) Nvidia's Data Center Business Is Cyclical, Notes Tetot (07:53) AI Is A Bit Overhyped, Argues Tetot (18:47) The Business Cycle Is Still Digesting The Excess (21:29) VanEck Ad (22:14) The Fed's Balance Sheet (24:37) When Will The Fed Start To Cut Rates? (33:42) Crypto (38:57) Key Learnings From Last Crypto Cycle (47:35) Uranium (54:56) Remi's Long Idea On Homebuilders __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023 (03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession (05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points (10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late" (12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market (15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn" (16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed (20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We? (23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed (25:59) VanEck Ad (26:46) Labor Market (29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret (36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer (40:27) The Housing Market (41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again (49:35) Neutral Policy Rate (55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings Group (AUM ~$16B), joins Forward Guidance to share his quantitative approach to asset allocation. He explains why, even with the drastic surge in interest rates, he prefers an overweight allocation to equities over bonds. Filmed on February 21, 2024. __ Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Stocks Vs. Bonds (05:19) Upside Downside Capture On Bonds (08:24) Overweight Stocks Over Bonds (21:44) VanEck Ad (22:29) Stock Market Valuations (30:51) Return Attribution In Equity Portfolio (37:26) Breadth In Stock Market (45:00) Notion of "Equity Duration" Is Mostly Just A Narrative (49:11) Comparisons To Dot Com Bubble (53:40) Bond Market Outlook on Credit & Duration Risk (55:55) The Fed And The Wealth Effect As The "Third Leg Of The Monetary Policy Stool" (57:01) Are Financial Conditions Tight Or Loose? (01:01:52) Investing With An Income Focus __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitter https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Shrub's Background In Shorting Credit During Great Financial Crisis (05:28) Short Credit Spreads Trade (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (12:14) The Challenges of Shorting An Index (15:26) Have We Seen "Max Stupid" Yet? (23:58) VanEck Ad (21:08) Shrub's Short-Term Call That Stocks Will Correct Mildly (25:33) Why Shrub Thinks Stocks End Up On the Year (28:51) This Is Not 2000, This Is Not 2021, Argues Shrub (34:25) Shrub's Investing Approach: Value, Thematic, Coal, and Digimarc (40:40) Tesla and Google (51:02) Treasury Secretary Yellen Tamagotchi (52:12) Two Types of Inflation: Wealthflation and Plebflation (55:44) How Much Does Market Plumbing Matter? (01:01:29) Is U.S. Treasury Sterilizing QT? (01:07:05) Economic Outlook in U.S. And Europe (01:09:42) How Systemic Are Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Issues? (01:14:48) Banking & CLO Systems (01:17:57) Views on Fed's Interest Rate Policy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background in Relative Value Credit (02:25) Potential Trouble At Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank (15:03) VanEck Ad (15:45) Liability Structure of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (18:42) The Pfandbrief Market (Different Than Bank Known As "Deutsche Pfandbrief" AKA "PBB") (21:56) Negative Marginal Net Interest Margin Is A Big Problem (23:54) Why Josef Does Not Have A Trade On PBB - Insufficient Liquidity In Options Market (25:23) Bail-in-ability of AT1 Debt (29:59) How This Might Play Out (32:47) Comparison To Greek And Spanish Banks (35:06) Silver Lining: Long-Term Nature of Many of PBB's Liabilities (40:21) Deposit Insurance In Germany & Europe (43:05) How PBB Might (Possibly) Overcome The Challenges It Faces? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Patrick Saner on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patrick_saner Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) U.S. Economy Appears Resilient (03:16) Financial Conditions And Neutral Rate (08:)54 Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (QE & QT) (13:32) The Reaction Function Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Has Changed (17:44) VanEck Ad (18:28) Interpreting Ongoing Yield Curve Inversion (20:24) Patrick's Work At Swiss Re (23:24) Inflation Volatility (33:47) Currencies (35:46) European Economy (38:32) Two Consecutive Quarters Of No Growth Does Not Necessarily Indicate A Recession (40:55) Most Common Error In Macro: Mistaking Correlation For Causation (43:16) Soft Landing Is Patrick's Base Case (45:49) Patrick's Prior Work At Swiss National Bank __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Paul Sankey research: https://sankeyresearch.com/ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Oil Market At "Equilibrium" Right Now (08:51) “If It Wasn't For Saudi Production Cuts, Oil Would Be Below 60 Dollars, I'm Sure Of It” (13:03) U.S. Oil Production Has Exploded (18:25) VanEck ad (19:07) The Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Cycle Has Begun In Oil (Diamondback-Endeavor Deal) (25:40) Importance Of Inventory Quality (And Quantity) (29:00) Management Issues (32:38) Buybacks and Dividends (35:50) Oil Companies With Strongest (And Weakest) Inventories (38:07) Merger Arb In Deals That Haven't Closed (44:43) How AI Will Impact Power Demand (50:55) About Sankey Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The Small Cap Value Universe (06:58) Why Did The Value Factor Used To Work, And Why Isn't It Working Now? (11:27) How To Find Great Small Cap Value Stocks (14:45) Finding Asymmetric Opportunities (16:18) VanEck Ad (17:51) Ferroglobe PLC (20:50) ACV Auctions (24:52) I Despise Price / Sales Ratio (27:38) What Makes Some Investments Work, And Others Not Work? (31:17) Look At Managements' Incentives (40:54) Banking Stocks (43:06) Last Time Small Cap Value Stocks Were "All The Rage": Early 2000s (45:17) Has The Rise Of Passive Flows Distorted The Small Cap World? (51:13) Markets Are "Broadly Efficient": Some Value Stocks Are Cheap For A Reason (53:06) How to Avoid "Value Traps" (58:42) How To Generate Short Ideas (01:07:00) The Role of Macro (01:08:37) U.S. Economy Is "Pretty Strong," European Economy Is "In Shambles" (01:10:51) Calumet Specialty Products (01:13:33) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) What Is Private Credit? (07:51) Private Credit Is Doing The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Finance (16:04) How Will Private Credit Perform If Defaults Pick-Up? (Very Little Data In Previous Cycles Because The Asset Class Has Grown So Much) (19:24) Private Credit Is Very Illiquid (20:54) Debt Covenants In Private Credit Are, Admittedly, Usually Very Strong (26:31) VanEck Ad (27:14) Interplay Between Private Credit and Rest of Fixed Income Universe (32:35) Private Equity Is Using Private Credit To Pay Itself Via Dividend Recaps (35:13) Private Credit Is Refinancing Some Of The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Loan Market, Which Perhaps May Be Bullish For Leveraged Loan (& High-Yield Bond) Market (38:00) Default Outlook In High-Yield Bond And Leveraged Loan Market (43:09) Moderately Bullish View On Duration (I.e. Rates) (58:43) Maturity Wall High-Yield Bond Is Very, Very Termed Out (01:02:56) Opportunities In Securitized Products Market Appear Interesting (01:04:57) Single Borrower Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Offers Interesting Opportunities To Fundamental Credit Investors (01:07:48) Most Common Investing Mistake In Credit: Herd Mentality __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Recession Is An Overrated Risk (04:33) The Right-Tail Risk: Reaccelerating Inflation (16:18) Will Stocks Continue to Outperform Bonds If Inflation Reaccelerates? (21:25) VanEck Ad (22:13) What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest? (29:22) Why Are Financial Conditions So Loose? (44:59) "If Economy Stays Hot, I Think There Will Be Zero Rate Cuts This Year" (47:22) Demographics Is Wildly Misunderstood (01:01:20) China (01:04:39) Duration Bubble of 2020 & 2021 Means Losses From Higher Rates Are Borne Not By Borrowers But By Lenders (01:06:19) Danny's Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Martin Pelletier on Twitter https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s latest on Cash-Futures Basis Trade: https://fedguy.com/levering-up/ Joseph’s latest on CBO: https://fedguy.com/sea-change/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:25) VanEck Ad (11:10) New York Community Bank $NYCB (15:34) The Canadian Banking System (22:05) Is Tech Forming A Stock Market Bubble? (33:15) Cash-Futures Basis Trade In Treasury Market (39:41) The Rise of Structured Products In Canada (56:40) Energy Market (01:03:00) Joseph's Views On Powell's 60 Minutes Interview (01:07:40) Bank of Canada Could Cut Interest Rates By More Than The Fed Does In 2024 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://twitter.com/briangobosox Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps; (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The Chinese Financial System Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme (05:17) The Property Bubble In China Is Popping (It's Still In Early Stages) (11:21) How The Chinese Banking System Works: Window Guidance > Forward Guidance (27:02) VanEck Ad (37:52) Views On The Chinese Stock Market (38:12) The Chinese Yuan (RMB) Must Be Devalued In Order To Stimulate The Chinese Economy (47:11) U.S. China Trade Policy, Under President Biden and Under President Trump (52:03) Much Of China's Bank Equity Is "Going To Be Wiped Out" (57:32) Why Would Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Not Stimulate Its Economy And Avoid Major Slowdown? (01:04:25) McCarthy's Long-Term Thesis On China: "They Will Go The Japan Path" (01:11:37) China's FX Reserves (01:14:06) Why Can't China Reinflate The Property Bubble? (01:17:31) Closing Thoughts On China (01:19:46) Macro Implications Of China's Slowdown On Global Economy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Citrini on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini's Substack: https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Citrini Lived Up To Jack's Nickname as "Hottest AI Stockpicker" (Here's The Proof) (17:21) VanEck Ad (18:04) Citrini's View on The Magnificent Seven (28:49) Fiscal Spending Not Set To Decline, Regardless Of Who Wins U.S. Presidential Election (30:49) Citrini's Basket Of Fiscal Beneficiaries (33:27) How Citrini Conducts His Research (45:07) Citrini's Risk Management (54:25) A Theme That Hasn't Worked: China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the market has grinded higher, which has created some interesting opportunities to hedge risk. Curnutt notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds remains positive, which is worrisome for diversified investors. Curnutt is also the host of Alpha Exchange podcast. Filmed on January 25, 2024. __ Follow Dean Curnutt on Twitter https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Preparing For Risk Off Events (16:13) VanEck Ad (20:09) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (25:49) Volatility (33:16) How Low Can The VIX Go? (42:27) Volatility Risk Premium (46:53) Credit Volatility (54:02) U.S Elections & Volatility Risk (01:03:43) What Is The Vol Structure Pricing In? (01:13:09) When To Buy Cheap Volatility? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 John Comiskey’s Substack: https://johncomiskey.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:14) John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022) (06:02) Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023 (09:27) Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills (15:30) The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023 (22:36) Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects) (27:20) VanEck Ad (36:12) The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury (43:51) Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large? (53:19) Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes (59:34) The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond (01:04:40) Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect (01:11:49) Is This All Sustainable? (01:16:51) Concluding Thoughts (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his outlook on the U.S. banking sector for 2024. Whalen argues that consumer and business credit is faring fine, as delinquencies are rising but from ultra-low levels. He does worry that commercial real estate (CRE) loans will continue to suffer impairment as losses are realized in 2024. Whalen notes that while the decline in long-term bond yields since early November 2023 has improved banks’ unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not help banks that much as their deposit costs will be slow to fall. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Troubles In Commercial Real Estate (07:28) This Will Be A Slow-Motion Train Wreck (11:01) Consumer Credit Is Normalizing (Delinquencies Are Rising From Very Low Levels) (16:13) VanEck Ad (16:57) Updated Views On Banks' Interest Rate Exposure (24:52) The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates 6 Times This Year, Argues Whalen (30:13) Fed Will Stop Quantitative Tightening Sooner Than Market Expects (32:32) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (33:49) Discount Window, Standing Repo Facility, and Reverse Repo Facility (39:00) Medium Term, Short-Term Rates Will Fall and Yield Curve Will Normalize (41:24) Basel III Endgame (45:32) Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs) and Gain On Sale (51:42) Net Income Will Likely Fall At Banks - "Don't Look For Roses And Sunshine" (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, joins Jack fresh off his trip to Cuba, to share insights about the Cuban financial system. Kotok argues that the Federal Reserve has demonstrated its commitment to financial stability, which is very bullish for U.S. financial assets. With that being said, Kotok has his concerns. Filmed on January 23, 2024. Kotok is also a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) and host of the eponymous “Camp Kotok.” __ Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) The Bond Market Rollercoaster (04:54) The Municipal Bond Market (12:18) The Importance Of Financial Stability (17:14) The Fed Prevented A Banking Run In March 2023 (22:36) Incentive for "Fed To Move Slowly" (24:29) VanEck Ad (25:09) Cuba (29:43) U.S. Dollar Is The Most Popular Currency In Cuba (35:42) Inflation and Credit In Cuba (44:47) Cuba's International Relations (48:25) David Kotok's View On The U.S. Stock Market (51:53) U.S. Economic Outlook (59:41) The Fed's Balance Sheet Policy In 2024 (01:03:00) Inflation In LCLoR (Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves) (01:06:00) Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) Is Not Very Relevant In The Long-Term __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Throughout much of 2022 and 2023, that a recession was imminent was the base case among mainstream economists. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro LLC, was among the few to defy this consensus. Why? Household balance sheets were strong and the labor market was tight. Will this strength continue in 2024? Dutta is relatively optimistic on spending over the next sixt months, and thinks that, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it has indicated, a “soft landing” is very achievable. However, Dutta notes that if the Fed does not cut and interest rates remain restrictive, his outlook may change throughout the year. Filmed on January 19, 2022. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/RenMacLLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:25) Why The Much-Anticipated Recession of 2023 Never Arrived (03:53) How "Leading Indicators" Were Giving False Recession Signals (06:32) Why The Leading Indicators Were Wrong (11:18) You Typically Don't See A Recession When Real Incomes Are Rising (13:19) Setting The Record Straight On "Excess Savings" Narrative (16:30) VanEck Ad (20:13) The Fed and Interest Rates (22:55) Long Lags = Nonsense? (26:21) Neil Dutta's Economic Outlook: Real Incomes Will Continue To Grow Into Summer 2024 (27:00) Inflation Is Falling By A Lot More Than People Think (28:33) The Bond Market Has Been Dead Wrong This Cycle (31:08) Credit Conditions And The Banking System (34:11) Delinquencies (35:49) The Labor Market Is Strong But Cooling (40:54) If Fed Doesn't Cut, That Would Be A Tightening Of Financial Conditions That Could Slow Economy (42:12) Views On Stocks, Bonds, and Sectors (45:00) China (46:29) Election Risk For The Bond Market __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator’s perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey’s specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey’s website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey’s Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.

Michaell Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on his outlook on global liquidity. Howell notes that further evidence supports his long-held view that liquidity bottomed in October 2022, and he explains why he expects liquidity to strengthen further into 2024, making for a favorable environment for liquidity-sensitive assets such as stocks, gold, and crypto. Filmed on January 11, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow CrossBorder Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) Howell: Liquidity Conditions Continue To Strengthen From Their Lows In The Early Fall of 2022 (12:26) Implications For Stocks, Gold, and Crypto (22:50) Industry Sectors At This Stage In The Liquidity Cycle (24:37) The Bond Market Is Being Distorted By The Federal Reserve (30:07) Term Premia And Convexity In Fixed-Income (37:07) Bank Term Funding Program and Draining of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (40:11) Drivers Of Fed Liquidity In 2024 and Beyond (45:50) The Economic Cycle Is Different Than The Liquidity Cycle (50:51) Is Demand For Refinancing (and Liquidity) Lower Because U.S. Corporates & Households Have Such Long-Duration Liabilities? (54:35) China and The People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:06:56) Howell's View On Interest Rates (01:09:08) Non-Central Bank Sources of Liquidity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Verity, Economics Correspondent for BBC News, joins Forward Guidance to discuss revelations from his new book, “Rigged: The Incredible True Story Of The Whistleblowers Jailed After Exposing The Rotten Heart Of The Financial System.” Verity argues that the traders who were convicted of rigging the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) are mere scapegoats, and that the real “rigging” was on a scale much larger and was encouraged by central bankers and bank CEOs. This interview features four recordings with former Barclays employee Peter Johnson, which show Johnson raising the alarm bell that nearly every bank was vastly underreporting their true cost of borrowing in the London Eurodollar market. Despite this, Johnson was later accused and convicted of conspiracy to defraud. These recordings are only a tiny fraction of the enormous amount of evidence Verity has collected, which can be found in his book as well as online in several links which will be shared below. Filmed on January 5, 2024. __ Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Andy Verity on Twitter https://twitter.com/andyverity Andy Verity’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Incredible-Whistleblowers-Exposing-Financial/dp/0750998857 Rigged, You Be The Judge: https://andyverity.substack.com/p/rigged-you-be-the-judge-7ad?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy's NEW Post (January 16, 2024), What the FBI + Gary Gensler's CFTC knew about interest rate manipulation ordered from the top - but didn't tell Congress or the public": https://andyverity.substack.com/p/what-the-fbi-gary-genslers-cftc-knew?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy Verity’s recordings on SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/andy-verity-74636470 The Lowball Tapes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0014wtn BBC News Panorama Program: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpUX1WJwivQ&t=96s Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:37) What is LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)? (10:09) The Price Of No Apples (12:07) The Evidence (Taped Phone Calls) (23:22) Traders' Requests Were Punished Whereas "Lowballing" Was Not (37:08) Higher-ups' Involvement: Bank of England, BBA, Federal Reserve, U.K. Government (41:28) Gary Gensler's Role In Alleged Cover-Up (45:30) Peter Johnson, One Of The Very Few Who Cared That LIBOR Was Fraudulent, Was Sent To Jail (52:11) Lowballing Never Came To Court (55:03) The Fall of LIBOR, The Rise of SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (01:01:19) The LIBOR Trials In The Wake Of The Great Financial Crisis (01:17:59) Where The LIBOR Case Stands In 2024 (01:26:15) The Future of Eurodollars And London In A LIBOR-Less World (01:29:25) Concluding Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers with his thoughts on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the bond market, and buy-write ETFs. Muir argues that persistently stimulative fiscal policy will keep nominal demand and growth high in the U.S., and that over the next decade, inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside. Muir explains why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities, and shares why he is excited about Harley Bassman’s new mortgage ETF. Filmed on January 9, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. __ Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir’s newsletter, The Macro Tourist https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) U.S. Fiscal Deficits Are Fueling A Boom (08:54) Are Higher Interest Rates Actually Stimulative To The Economy? (10:29) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (15:11) Thought Experiment With Bank of Japan (20:53) Why Kevin Likes The Japanese Stock Market (24:48) Bond Market and Fed Policy (33:24) Rates Market Is Overzealous In Pricing In Fed Cuts (34:10) Floor vs. Corridor System (42:08) Kevin's 2024 Economic Outlook (51:14) Using Options To Identify True Market-Assigned Probabilities In The STIR Market (57:14) Kevin's Favorite Trade: Long Inflation Breakevens (01:07:36) Interest Rate Vol Is Cheap (And Harley Bassman's New Mortgage ETF) (01:11:04) Kevin's Thoughts On Buy-Write ETFs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting and publisher of The pH Report returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on the state of the chemicals and automotive industry. Hodges sees significant overcapacity in chemicals and persistently low price of ethene, propylene, and other chemicals suggests that demand is weakening. Jack asks about whether the fall in inflation in the U.S. economy, which occurred while the labor market and spending stayed strong, indicates that a “soft landing” is a likely outcome in the U.S. or might have even already occurred. Filmed on January 5, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 New Normal Consulting https://t.co/d5mkV0QuBb pH Report https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (26:09) The Bank of Japan Faces A Dilemma (29:09) Why China's Economy Could Remain Weak For Longer Than Many Expect (43:25) The Chemicals Market Remains Weak (55:42) Will The U.S. Continue To Be Immune To Global Slowdown? (01:09:13) Euphoria In The Stock Market (01:10:43) Hodges' Concerns About The Bond Market (01:17:59) Why Can't The Printing Continue? (01:27:52) The Federal Reserve In 2024 (01:34:12) Why Paul Is The Most Risk Averse He's Ever Been (01:40:12) Geopolitics (01:42:05) Green Energy and Electric Vehicles __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. You can go to Public.com, purchase Treasury bills in seconds, and you may be able to earn some of the highest yields we’ve seen since the year 2000. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. -- On today's episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG for a discussion on what to expect from the Fed, economy & markets in 2024. Will the Fed be able to avoid a recession as markets price in a soft landing? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- This podcast is sponsored by Public. Rate discussed is gross of fees. All investing involves risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. Treasuries on Public are available to US members only. Brokerage Accounts for treasury securities are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc. (“JSI”) member FINRA and SIPC. Securities investments: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Banking services and the Bank Account are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. Full disclosures can be found at https://public.com/forwardguidance. -- Follow Danielle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow George on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What To Expect In 2024 (07:52) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (14:35) What Caused The Powell Pivot? (28:38) Will The Fiscal Support End In 2024? (42:55) Recession vs The Soft Landing (50:23) Heading For A Credit Event (54:39) Positioning Into 2024 (57:32) Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode, Former Fed trader, CIO at Monetary Macro & Author Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2024. Joseph walks through his stock market "crack up boom" thesis, the rise of fiscal dominance & the path ahead for bonds as the U.S runs record high deficits. We then deep dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook as well as broader financial plumbing and how it may impact markets in the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Disinflation Is Transitory (07:48) Record Deficits Will Fuel A Stock Market Rally In 2024 (11:34) The Fed Will Cut Rates Three Times In 2024 (16:33) Why Isn't The Fed Pushing Back Against Market Pricing? (19:22) Fading The Recessionista's (23:25) The U.S Dollar (26:52) Quantitative Tightening (35:45) The Reverse Repo (46:32) Mortgages Role In The Fed's QT (54:39) Housing (01:01:10) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies as SCT Capital Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his many findings from his recent research on commodity investing. Krishnan and Farley also discuss the weather, the continuing dispersion between interest rate volatility and equity market volatility, and if the bond market really is smarter than the stock market. Filmed on December 19, 2024. Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Hari's Journey Into Commodities (10:10) Finding Upside Convexity In Commodity Options (17:35) Corn (21:41) Copper and Metals (22:53) Natural Gas Is Similar To The VIX (most Contango) (27:27) Seasonality (30:49) Commodity Stocks (34:08) Structural Bull Case For Commodities (38:57) What's Harder - Predicting Weather or Predicting The Stock Market? (41:22) Bread and Butter Volatility Trading (44:32) Views On VIX & Implied Volatility (50:17) Examples of Other "Disaster Trades" In The Volatility World (51:31) Rate Volatility Is Much Higher Than Equity Volatility - Why? (55:12) Is The Stock Market Smarter Than The Bond Market? (01:02:53) Reflexivity, Explained __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andrei Stetsenko, partner at Farley Capital, joins Forward Guidance to share insights from his experience investing in India. Stetsenko, who works with Jack’s father, argues that India’s economy is being turbocharged by exceptionally favorable demographics, accelerating urbanization, and growing infrastructure. He explains why he believes India’s stock market contains high-growth, high-quality companies that may trade at much cheaper valuations than a similarly positioned company in the U.S. He argues why he thinks short-term thinking is the most common mistake investors make, and shares his thoughts on several industries such as payments, banking, and airlines. Filmed on December 21, 2023. Andrei Stetsenko’s blog, Dispatches From India: https://www.dispatchesfromindia.com/ Andrei Stetsenko on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/astetsen __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Farley Capital Got Started Investing In India (08:50) The Indian Stock Market Vs. American Stock Market (15:15) India's Banking System (18:05) Company Management In India (20:00) Adani Allegations (Hindenburg Research) (24:11) Red Flags To Avoid (26:41) Valuations In The Indian Stock Market (30:12) You Won't Get Far In The Indian Market Without Profit (35:03) Margin Of Safety (39:01) Macro And Discount Rate (41:06) The Payments Industry (46:18) The Credit Card and Buy Now Pay Later Industries (50:13) The U.S. Banking Industry (51:26) Importance of Tuning the Noise Out (55:14) Most Common Mistake In Investing (01:01:47) China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Carson Block, activist short seller and founder of Muddy Waters Research and Muddy Waters Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to share his short thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), a large publicly traded vehicle that owns loans backed by commercial real estate (CRE) buildings. Block argues that a “perfect macro storm” of lower net operating income (NOI), higher interest rates, and impaired CRE values, could force BXMT to cut their dividend. Using individual loan level data from BXMT’s collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), Block found that, absent rate swaps, 73% of CLO borrowers aren’t covering interest expense, and 27% were unable to pay just the risk free rate (SOFR). Block estimates that 16 Billion (notional value) of rate swaps will expire in 2024, which will put severe stress on the borrowers as well as BXMT itself, potentially creating a liquidity crisis. Block and Farley discuss Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s “fact sheet,” which BXMT may have released in response to Muddy Waters report, originally released on December 6. This interview was filmed on December 20, 2023. NOTE: as disclosed during this interview, Block and his firm are short BXMT against a comparable basket of longs. In no way is this interview an inducement to short BXMT. Lastly, throughout the interview the term “Blackstone” is sometimes used in lieu of “Blackstone Mortgage Trust”; it is this company, and NOT Blackstone (BX) itself, that is being referenced, as the bear case discussed in this interview is for BXMT, not BX. Muddy Waters Research short report on Blackstone Mortgage Trust ($BXMT), December 6, 2023: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bxmt/mw-is-short-bxmt/ Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s Fact Sheet: https://s26.q4cdn.com/698820489/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/BXMT-Fact-Sheet.pdf Blackstone Mortgage Trust investor relations: https://ir.blackstonemortgagetrust.com/shareholders/default.aspx _ Other Muddy Waters Research: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/ Zer0es TV: https://www.zer0es.tv/ Carson’s previous appearance on Forward Guidance (March 2022): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SScVuA4nf44&t=2213s _ Follow Muddy Waters Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/muddywatersre Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Short Thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) (05:00) Loan Level Data Reveal Interest Expense (Absent Swaps) Often Exceeds Net Operating Income (12:14) Refinancing Is A Lot Harder When Collateral Values Have Fallen (22:07) In-Depth Analysis Of Interest Rate Swaps (30:39) How Does This Play Out (37:07) Risk To The Bear Case: That The Mothership (Blackstone) Bails Out BXMT (41:59) Managing The Short BXMT Position (45:39) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy marketsTimestamps:

Jared Dillian, founder of The Daily Dirtnap and author of “No Worries: How To Live A Stress-Free Financial Life,” returns to Forward Guidance to argue that too many are too excited about the stock market and private equity and that, accordingly, he is short both. Dillian expects the much-anticipated recession that never appeared in 2023 to finally arrive, and he remains bullish the front end of the yield curve. Filmed on December 20, 2023. Dillian’s latest book: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/books/no-worries __ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jared's Bearish View On Stocks (03:23) Jared's Short On Blackstone (06:55) Higher For Longer Was Just A Narrative All Along (09:07) I Think We'll Get A Recession (12:06) View On Long-Term Government Bonds (15:29) International and Value Stocks (18:06) Very Bearish View On Chinese Stocks (22:05) Bull Case In Argentina (23:09) Value Stocks Vs. Growth Stocks (25:09) Oil (26:51) Stock Market Sentiment (28:20) Indexing and The Awesome Portfolio (36:04) The Risk Of Focusing Too Much On Small Financial Decisions (44:51) Closing Thoughts On Crypto and Gold __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Carolyn Sissoko, senior lecturer at University of the West of England, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and author at FedGuy.com, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s public acknowledgement that it may cut interest rates in 2024, the collateral supply effect, and the merging of of credit allocation facilities and money markets. Filmed on December 19, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr __ Follow Carolyn Sissoko on Twitter https://twitter.com/csissoko Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph’s latest, “Independent Tracks”: https://fedguy.com/independent-tracks/ Professor Sissoko’s publications: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Joseph's Take On The Fed's December FOMC Meeting (09:25) Does Zero Interest Rate Policy Cause Malinvestment And Misallocation of Credit? (15:02) The Rise of "Too Big To Fail" (24:32) Line Separating Bank Lending And Money Markets Has Been "Almost Completely Obliterated" (38:25) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and Stablecoins (40:48) Joseph On Why Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) Could Continue Even As It Cuts Rates (45:20) Joseph's Views On Bonds (01:02:03) The Collateral Effect (01:17:04) CLOs and Private Equity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Daniel Neilson, professor of economics at Bard College at Simon’s Rock and author of “Soon Parted,” returns to Forward Guidance to share findings from his seminal paper, “On par: A Money View of stablecoins.” Co-authored with Iñaki Aldasoro and Perry Mehrling as a working paper for the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), this paper compares on-chain currency (stablecoins) to Eurodollars to explore how they deal with issues of liquidity and par settlement. Filmed on December 8, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr _ BIS Paper, “On par: A Money View of stablecoins”: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1146.pdf Dan Neilson’s newsletter, Soon Parted: https://www.soonparted.co/ Dan Neilson’s book, “Minsky”: https://www.amazon.com/Minsky-Daniel-H-Neilson/dp/1509528504 Follow Dan Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Why Stablecoins? (04:46) The Issue Of Par (09:43) The Great Financial Crisis Of 2008 (12:12) Did The Fed's Rate Surge Halt The Stablecoin Boom? (22:06) Stablecoins, The New Eurodollars (24:20) The Need For Smooth Forward Markets (27:40) There's No Central Bank In Crypto (34:22) Silicon Valley Bank and Circle (49:43) Tether (01:02:20) The Role Of Zero Interest Rates (01:05:01) The Role Of Stablecoins: "Lots of Fireworks" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Thomas Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights from the somewhat opaque world of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). Majewski explains why he perceives that CLO equity enjoys a series of structural advantages, and he also shares his thoughts on the worlds of private credit and bank capital relief transactions. Filmed on December 11, 2023. Please note that any past performance discussed in this presentation is not indicative of, or a guarantee of, future performance. To reference performance and the discussion about Eagle Point Credit Company, please visit the website: https://www.eaglepointcreditcompany.com/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) What Are CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations)? (19:00) A Look Back At CDOs And 2008 (31:42) Impact Of Rising Rates On Companies' Ability To Service Debt Loads (40:14) How Would "The CLO World" Handle A Potential Recession? (43:06) Banks Are Selling Credit Risk (i.e. Buying Insurance) Via "Regulatory Capital Relief" Credit Linked Notes (Are They Similar To Credit Default Swaps?) (54:15) Private Credit - Golden Age Or Biggest Bubble In The World? (01:00:13) Liability Structure of BDCs (Business Development Corporation) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on interest rates, credit spreads, the economy, and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on December 5, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Kathy Jones on Twitter https://twitter.com/KathyJones Follow Schwab Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/SchwabResearch Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (07:45) Inverted Yield Curve Is Here To Stay (10:01) Term Premia Will Decline (14:12) Bond Market Does Not Always Track Nominal Growth (17:21) Can't Rule Out That This Is A Counter-Trend Rally (20:56) How Does Bond Supply Affect Price? (29:02) The Days Of Quantitative Tightening (QT) May Be Numbered (31:33) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (34:09) Investment Grade (IG) Corporate Bonds (37:22) We Are Not Enthusiastic About CLOs and Private Credit (46:40) Sentiment and Positioning In Fixed Income (48:50) Views on Europe and Japan (53:32) Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Michael Ericson President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank & Dan Siciliano Chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB join the show for a discussion on the current health of the banking system. At the end of the year in 2023, 9 months after the March banking panic, Dan & Michael make a case that the U.S banking system if more healthy & stale than earlier this year. We deep dive into the collapse of SVB, how the FHLB operates & what to expect looking ahead to 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) What Is The FHLB? (04:12) Strength Of The Banking System (17:27) Does The FHLB Have Credit Risk? (28:04) The Collapse Of SVB (37:24) Role Of The FHLB vs The Fed (47:05) Bank Credit Worthiness (01:03:40) Lessons Learned From The March Bank Panic (01:08:48) Silvergate Bank (01:16:02) Silicon Valley Bank (01:19:50) Operational Expenses Of The FHLB -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to apply his framework for understanding markets to make several big calls for 2024 and beyond. Zulauf expects the rally in stocks and bonds to continue to Q1 2024, but then he argues both will struggle as the liquidity cycle enters its final phase. FIlmed on December 5, 2023. More info about Zulauf Consulting can be found here: www.felixzulauf.com Felix Zulauf is the Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. Felix has over 40 years of experience in financial markets and asset management and has served as a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for 30 years. He started as a trader with Swiss Bank Corporation in the early 1970’s and received training in research and portfolio management thereafter with several investment banks in New York, Zurich, and Paris. Mr. Zulauf joined UBS in 1977 as a Portfolio Manager of global mutual funds and became Global Strategist of UBS in 1982 and the head of the institutional portfolio management group in 1986. Felix served as a member of the Executive Board of Clariden Bank from 1988-1990 and founded Zulauf Asset Management AG in 1990, a Swiss-based asset management company. Mr. Zulauf sold the majority of the firm and spun off a Family Office in 2009. LinkedIn @zulauf-consulting YouTube Channel @zulaufconsulting __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Counter-Trend Rally In Bonds May Continue, But The Bond Bear Market Likely Isn't Over (12:47) Magnificent 7 Stocks Are "Excessively Overpriced (29:31) Transition To Bear Market (35:25) Has U.S Economy Dodged A Recession? (37:23) Some Economic Statistics Could Not Be Accurate To Reality (40:27) Will Inflation Reaccelerate (42:01) Geopolitical Risk Is Not Being Taken Seriously By The Market (46:07) U.S.-China Relations (50:34) Waiting On China's Economic Recovery (53:53) Will Bull Market In Japanese Stocks Continue? (56:34) Tactical Bullish View On U.S. Dollar Relative To Some Other Currencies

Dr. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and writer at FedGuy.com, to discuss his paper at the Federal Reserve’s 2023 Jackson Hole symposium, “Living with High Public Debt.” Professor Eichengreen also shares his findings on the U.S. dollar’s role as a global reserve currency (“dollar dominance”), financial repression, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and he also shares his views on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Filmed on November 28, 2023. Dr. Eichengreen’s 2023 Jackson Hole paper, “Living With High Public Debt”: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9749/Living_With_High_Public_SA_Sep_2_2023.pdf Complete agenda for 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium-structural-shifts-in-the-global-economy/ More information on Dr. Eichengreen’s work: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Follow Dr. Barry Eichengreen on Twitter https://twitter.com/B_Eichengreen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) High Levels of Debt Relative to GDP Are Problematic (06:07) Ways By Which Debt-to-GDP Ratios Can Be Lowered (14:08) Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Lead To A Productivity Miracle? (19:58) How Bad Does It Have To Get Before A Global Reserve Currency Gets Dethroned? (26:31) Central Banks Are Buying More Gold (30:31) What Could Erode Dollar's Dominant Position In The World (40:39) Dr. Eichengreen's Views On Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (46:05) Is Central Bank Independence Something That's Here To Stay? (49:16) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) (59:49) Dr. Eichengreen's Future Work On China's Economic Slowdown __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those faced during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Dilweg’s base case is that office as an asset class is structurally broken as the trends of remote and hybrid work are here to stay. He expects over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be rendered obsolete in the coming years. With all these challenges notwithstanding, Dilweg is optimistic that there will be great investment opportunities for well capitalized players who can take advantage of market distress. Filmed on November 29, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ About Dilweg: https://www.dilweg.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Dilweg's Background in Football and Real Estate (04:10) Dilweg's Start In Real Estate: "Ready, Fire, Aim" (09:00) Office Is The Most Capital-Intensive Sector Of Real Estate (12:15) Interest Rate Surge Has Been A "Jolt To The System" (20:30) Office Is Structurally Broken Right Now (34:10) It's A Lot Worse Than The Headlines (43:10) Lease Term: Comparison To "Duration" In Bond World (44:10) Interest Rate Hedging In The Real Estate Business (Public REITs and Private Investors) (45:00) Are Office Rents Going Down? (50:35) Dilweg's Forward Outlook On Returns (53:10) A Lot Of Properties Will Go Back To Banks (01:09:00) Dilweg's Outlook on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Other Than Offices (01:14:50) The Rise Of Experiential Hospitality (01:17:50) WeWork & Adam Neumann (01:23:00) Dilweg's View on Office Markets In Big U.S. Metropolitan Cities (01:29:10) The Work-From-Home Debate (01:46:00) The Rise of Private Credit