Forward Guidance

In this episode, Warren Pies joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2025, his view of the housing market, and why he thinks inflation fears are overblown. We also delve into equity valuations, the long bond trade, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Pies: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) 2025 Outlook (05:50) Economic Tensions & The Bond Market (11:21) Fed Terminal Rate & Restrictiveness (16:29) Housing Market & Employment (23:43) Impact Of LA Fires (26:48) Ads (28:45) December SEP (32:25) Rate Cut Expectations (34:56) Inflation Overview (39:50) Debating Case For Sticky Inflation (43:12) Equity Valuations (50:19) Growth Vs Value (52:59) Long Bond Trade (56:23) Commodities Outlook (57:41) Learn More About Warren’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:55) December Jobs Report (06:16) Other Labor Market Data (07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over? (11:24) DAS 2025 (14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025? (20:57) Global Margin Call (27:10) Dollar Dilemma (29:58) Global Bond Yields (33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics (35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening (37:25) Crypto Politics (39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (40:05) Ads (42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't) (45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria (49:12) NFP Prediction (49:52) TLT & Positioning (52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis (57:05) Yield Solutions (59:59) 2-Year Trade (01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration (01:04:22) Public Spending Problem (01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything (01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he’s tactically bearish, the US dollar’s implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:54 Macro & Crypto Overview 10:01 Implications Of Hawkish Fed 13:37 Inauguration & The US Dollar 18:43 Ads 20:41 Crypto Market Outlook 24:39 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 27:36 Crypto Shopping List 33:02 Bottom Signals 36:53 2025 Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonny Matthews joins the show to discuss Fed policy and its impact on yields, US productivity, and resilience in the labor market. We also delve into the Trump Administration's potential impact on markets, the outlook for US equities, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jonny Matthews: https://x.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://super-macro.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) No Recession Call (04:04) Fed Meeting (06:43) Fed Policy & Era Of Higher Rates (10:27) US Vs Global Productivity (14:27) Global Growth Outlook (17:12) Inflation Overview (22:35) Income & Consumption Disparities (25:36) Impact Of Fed Policy (29:20) Ads (30:33) Labor Market Overview (35:42) Trump’s Potential Immigration Policy (38:12) Fading DOGE, Deregulation, & Tariffs (40:25) SOFR, Term Premium, & Central Bank Policy (47:42) Risk Assets & US Equities (50:52) Fed Gilt Crisis Moment? (52:33) Alternative Assets (55:05) Euro & US Dollar (57:10) Learn More About Jonny’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, David Cervantes and DCP join the show to discuss the FOMC post-mortem, the similarities to the 90s business cycle, and managing emotions in markets. We also reflect on the COVID crash, dig into expectations for 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow David Cervantes: https://x.com/EconstratPB David’s Substack: https://substack.com/@pinebrookcap Follow DCP: https://x.com/Dcpcooks Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:12) Donnie’s Background (08:00) David’s Trading Framework (09:08) FOMC Post-Mortem (19:19) Fed Guidance & Market Surprises (21:49) DCP’s Edge (23:55) New Government Regime (24:49) Reflecting On Trades (26:28) Similarities To The 90s (30:45) Ads (31:58) Interview Continues (33:11) So You Want To Be A Trader? (35:05) We’re Mid-Cycle, Not Late-Cycle (37:05) Managing Emotions (40:43) Trading Wisdom (44:52) Reflecting On The COVID Crash (51:55) Trading Insights (53:53) Trading Bonds Vs ES (59:16) 2025 Expectations (01:05:15) Trump & The Deficit (01:07:08) Closing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special crossover episode with On the Margin, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) Macro Outlook (07:14) Philosophical Vibe Shift (12:39) Financial Nihilism (16:40) Unpacking The Next Administration (20:11) Misaligned Incentives (23:23) Ads (25:24) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (38:15) BSR & The US Dollar (47:06) Crypto Market Outlook (50:04) Crypto Product Market Fit (55:18) Fundamentals Bearish? (57:07) Learn More About Travis’ Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing (06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over? (12:01) Trump Policy Impact (14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike (20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook (22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation (27:43) VIX & Market Positioning (31:46) China Risk (33:42) Ads (35:36) Systematic Volatility (37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus (39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities (43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path (46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks (51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending (52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook (54:58) Bessent Economic Plan (57:15) 1998 Framework (59:55) Productive Capacity Boom (01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:21) Immigration Impact (09:50) 2025 Surprises (12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:25) Peak Hawkishness (21:59) Long-Term Rates (23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:34) Ads (27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics (29:15) The Neutral Rate (31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:57) Reverse Repo (38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance (40:25) Equities & The Dollar (44:01) Gold & Crypto (45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (50:28) Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China’s balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades (07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top? (09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor (11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession (13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar (15:30) Dovish Fed (16:51) Labor Market & Claims (21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing (26:00) Rate Steepening (27:13) Ads (29:15) Trump Peace Dividend (32:51) Inflation & CPI (36:22) Continuing Goldilocks (39:52) Bitcoin (43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing (50:53) Vol Controllers (53:48) Geopolitics (55:23) Cash Bubble (57:07) New Credit Cycle (59:17) Housing Affordability __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Warren’s Macro Overview (06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate (14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation (21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation (22:54) Ads (25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative (27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing (28:27) Taxes & Government Spending (31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms (34:29) The K-Shaped Economy (37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles (39:05) Politics & The Oil Market (41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff (56:38) Does The Deficit Matter? (58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration (01:01:14) The Bid For Duration (01:04:57) Warren’s Trading __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the November jobs report, the Fed’s cutting path, and the goldilocks scenario for 2025. We also delve into the different R* models, MicroStrategy, the Milken moment for crypto, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TxUrZZsIWtXdqbDS-DDJL7EduaP_pdpE/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Post-Thanksgiving Catch Up (03:33) November Non-Farm Payrolls (08:31) Economic Slowdown or Stability? (10:20) Debating The Fed’s Cutting Path (16:51) Hot Economy Vs Growth Scare (24:24) Macro Analysis & Shorting Oil (30:35) Ads (32:38) We Are In Goldilocks (36:29) Stocks Vs Commodities (38:12) Inflation Turning Point (39:40) Different R* Models (46:07) History Of Junk Bonds (48:11) Milken Moment For Crypto (52:11) Monetizing Volatility (53:26) Bitcoin & Evolving Options Market (56:40) MicroStrategy Risks (01:03:23) Enhancing Yield With Volatility (01:06:13) Debating Bitcoin’s Future — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Dan Tapiero joins the show to discuss why he’s unbelievably bullish on the macro, his introduction to Bitcoin & blockchain, and the US dollar. We also delve into the regulatory changes he’s most excited for, the generational shift upon us, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Dan Tapiero: https://x.com/DTAPCAP Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you’re an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:22) Dan's Background (08:10) Introduction To Bitcoin & Crypto (16:48) Bitcoin, Sovereigns, & Regulation (20:42) Most Exciting Regulatory Changes (23:19) MicroStrategy's Bold Play (25:14) Ads (26:58) Macro Overview (33:01) Unbelievably Bullish (38:17) Generational Shift (41:07) Keep A Long-Term View __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Kao joins the show to discuss why the Fed rate cuts were a mistake, the impact of the dollar wrecking ball, and whether an inflation resurgence is possible. We also delve into the December Fed decision, the oil market, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Michael Kao: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Powell's Policy Mistake (10:02) Why The Fed Cut 50 Bps (14:04) Reason For Economic Resurgence (17:56) The Dollar & Fiscal Red Bull (26:24) Ads (28:26) Inflationary Concerns Maxed Out? (34:49) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (44:29) December Fed Decision (47:14) The Oil Market (52:01) Peace Dividend __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss how to think about managing risk, whether inflation fears are overpriced, and embracing the market rotation. We also delve into the shift in global collateral, the power of volatility, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_GFJHScbL7EHAXDmO9Xy-QFt8fgNWGP1/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:14) MicroStrategy/Bitcoin Craze (06:26) Risk Management Strategies (17:30) Are Inflation Fears Overpriced? (25:48) Ads (27:32) Volatility Seasonality (30:11) The Bullish Market Rotation (40:35) Shift In Global Collateral (52:21) Volatility Is Vitality (56:36) Cyclicality, Liquidity, & Debasement __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Fed’s cutting path, Powell’s speech, and managing crypto market euphoria. We also delve into whether we’ve seen the peak in the dollar and yields, the factors driving the Fed, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15P0IaQJQajBm35qCu4e564YWueVRbV5B/view?usp=sharing __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Revisiting View Of The Economy (03:42) Fed Cuts & Powell Speech (09:55) Peak In Dollar & Yields (13:38) Government Spending & DOGE (19:02) China, Japan, & The Dollar (22:23) Small Caps Vs Large Caps (24:56) Ads (26:29) Managing Crypto Euphoria (33:24) Bullish Market Signals (37:41) Stifling Volatility (40:41) Tactical Outlook For Bitcoin (43:35) Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook (48:16) Inflation & Potential For Recession (53:34) Differentiating Assets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:27) Stephen's Background (02:34) Context Behind The Paper (04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade (09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency (11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining (14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs (17:28) Economics Of Tariffs (25:37) Currency Offsetting (32:25) Ads (33:58) Trump's Economic Policies (45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs (49:18) Dollar Devaluation (55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury (01:01:46) The Big Picture (01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets (01:06:43) Closing Remarks __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist (06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift (14:14) Forward Guidance (15:54) Summarizing George's Position (17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds (21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy (33:28) Ads (35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued) (37:18) What Is Driving The Economy? (45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed (49:51) What Stage Are We In? (53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate (01:01:23) Economic Outlook (01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:27 Election Outcome 04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling 09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing? 15:53 Market Impact Of Election 23:04 Ads 24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued) 25:35 Offsides Hedging 30:40 Powell & The Fed 36:37 December FOMC Meeting 40:47 2025 Themes To Watch 44:39 Short Gold? 46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs 52:19 New Market Regime — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) FOMC Takeaways (02:48) Is Policy Restrictive? (07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced? (09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What (12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy (15:40) Quantitative Tightening (18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do (22:20) Ledger Ad (23:05) The Labor Market (26:33) Election Impact On The Fed (31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation? (35:22) Fiscal Deficits (42:51) Asset Allocation (44:42) Credit Spreads (46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy (49:58) F*ck Valuations (52:11) Follow Bob's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:11) Pollster Miscalculations (12:03) Societal Impact Of Election (19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact (27:52) Ledger Ad (28:37) How Will The Fed React? (33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar (35:38) Volatility & Market Structure (43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect (52:06) Market Outlook (56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) NFP Report Takeaways (14:50) Quant Corner (24:31) Ledger Ad (25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding? (37:31) QRA (48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market? (04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique? (07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates (09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity (12:39) Election Impact on Markets (15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields (22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets (26:39) Earnings vs Valuation (34:52) Ledger Ad (35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing? (37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk (42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges (45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates (49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter? (56:42) Learn More About Jurrien __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:33) Path of Interest Rates (08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone? (10:46) Overdone Currency Moves (12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility (16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging (20:29) Election Probability Distribution (27:17) Ledger Ad (28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates (31:10) Inflation Resurgence (33:18) Global Coordination (36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade (39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency (47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy (52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market (55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en Follow Eric’s Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle (09:24) Is this Cycle Different? (12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles (18:20) The Cyclical Economy (21:52) The Housing Sector (26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing (30:44) Measuring the Labor Market (34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims (39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims (42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions (47:12) The Unemployment Rate (50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve (57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation? (01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss election trades and Trump’s impact on markets, the number of Fed rate cuts currently priced in, and the ongoing bull market in gold. We also delve into the outlook for Bitcoin, how to measure a hard or soft landing, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_VTM8KHaUHEG4hawqaDJNMF8TddDRM-t/view?usp=drive_link — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:42) Economy is Doing Well (05:09) Earnings vs Economic Data (08:29) Actionable Market Ideas (11:38) Election & Trump Trades (18:46) Small Caps & Gold (21:34) Bitcoin & Microstrategy (24:45) Contrarian Gold Take (27:52) Trump Trade Hedges (29:19) Fed Rate Cutting Path (33:07) Economic Growth Under Trump (38:12) Volatility & Election Hedging (41:50) Measuring Hard & Soft Landings (45:52) Economy Under Biden/Harris (49:45) AI & The Future Economy — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to discuss his perspective on equities, the subsectors he’s trading, and his outlook on commodities. We also delve into the Trump trades, the metals market, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony Greer: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Perspective on Equities, Rates, & Commodities (06:38) Win-Win for Equities (09:59) Election & Trump Trades (13:48) A Trader's Market (17:07) Fed & Macro (20:09) Bond Yields & Volatility (22:56) Market Sentiment Push & Pull (25:09) Oil & Geopolitics (30:31) Gold Market (35:29) Precious & Base Metals (37:57) FX Market (39:04) Bitcoin & Crypto (41:28) What Would Make Tony Bearish? (43:03) Tony's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we sat down at Permissionless to discuss the latest CPI and labor market data, the likely noise in the upcoming labor data, and the impact of coordinated central banking. We also delve into the election, its potential impact on crypto, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:26) Inflation & Labor Market Data (06:03) Inflation Mechanics (10:13) Labor Market Noise (14:13) Coordinated Central Banking (19:26) Bifurcated Economy (23:45) Is Macro Bullish or Bearish? (30:11) Crypto & the Election (36:18) Bitcoin Outlook & Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonah and Avi join Felix to discuss the current macro regime, Bitcoin and the crypto market, and the impact of forward guidance. They also delve into the ongoing uncertainty throughout markets, the Fed risking its credibility, and the economic bifurcation playing into crypto. — Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) Oil Market & Geopolitics (05:39) Macro's Role In Crypto Markets (08:41) Fundamental View of Bitcoin & Crypto (14:00) Bitcoin & Interest Rates (21:18) The Forward Guidance Regime (25:00) Economic Growth vs Stimulus (27:57) Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing Crypto (30:49) Economic Uncertainty (33:57) Unaffordability & Wealth Disparity (36:37) The Fed's Credibility (40:19) Economic Bifurcation (45:10) History of Asset Bubbles (46:48) Generational Wealth (51:02) Price Predictions — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest bullish jobs report, the impact of globally-coordinated easing, and the Middle East's impact on markets. We also delve into the recent SOFR explosion, election pricing in markets, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S24tXpteiZg1jilfU8aXk0L_NtXFLXVg/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Non-Farm Payrolls (10:59) Fixed Income & High Yield (12:43) Global Coordinated Easing Cycle (16:20) US Dollar & US Exceptionalism (18:52) Global Easing Driving Growth & Liquidity (22:08) The Big Picture (26:32) Permissionless Ad (27:11) Oil, Gold, & the Middle East (31:37) Global Collateral Shift (33:19) Middle East Tail Risk (36:23) SOFR Explosion & QT (42:09) Simplifying Macro Trading (45:25) Economic Politics (48:28) Crypto Markets (50:31) Election Pricing in Markets (55:56) Permissionless Next Week — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 Implied Forward Rates 03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession 07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance 11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields 13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity 18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread 23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate 26:11 The Fed's Master Plan 29:43 Permissionless Ad 30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation? 35:19 Labor Market & Immigration 38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced? 40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt 42:03 Market Opportunities 44:33 Equities & Rates 47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss China’s economic stimulus, the resilience of the labor market, and the GDP/GDI revisions. We also delve into global liquidity & equity multiples, things to actually worry about in the future, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13soXH2F5Zv1f3SvJO6Oj5D7d1gtdBFEJ/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) China & Economic Stimulus (08:11) The World is Changing (12:26) Oil Market (15:45) Unpacking the Labor Market (23:27) Permissionless Ad (24:04) Interview Continues (25:15) Central Bank Politics (27:16) GDP & GDI (32:26) Global Liquidity & Equity Multiples (38:26) Things to be Worried About (45:40) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Prometheus Research: https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:17) The Prometheus Macro Framework (04:56) GDP & Economic Growth (14:11) Interest & Payment Expense (16:17) Exports (17:33) Putting the GDP Components Together (19:24) Corporate Profits & Savings Rates (23:31) Manufacturing Sector (30:31) The Business Cycle (35:03) The Labor Market & Recession Indicators (38:21) Inflation (40:25) Liquidity Breakdown (53:44) Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy (56:42) Prometheus Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Victory Lap (03:38) Quinn's Framework (06:11) Bullish Rate Cut? (09:30) Summary of Economic Projections (14:32) Bullish Market Signals (18:05) The World Trade (21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle (24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk (27:50) Private Credit (29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt (31:43) Permissionless Ad (32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle (34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI (37:13) Economic Expectations (39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls (44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone (50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity (53:32) The Banana Zone (58:58) Monetary Matters (01:01:09) Balancing Market Views — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Darius Dale: https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Overview of the Economy (02:42) Recession vs Normalization (05:48) 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut (10:17) Are We Price For Recession? (12:50) Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts (19:43) The Recessionistas Are Wrong (25:49) The Fiscal Impulse (28:55) Trend of US Growth (31:02) Permissionless Ad (31:42) The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials (40:31) Chinese Economy (44:32) Asset Allocation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun. Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270 Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948 __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession? (08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 (15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession (25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China (33:26) Permissionless Ad (34:25) China's Trade Surplus (38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It (45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo (01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Brett Jefferson discusses trust preferred CDOs, why they can provide such great opportunities, and how Brett’s fund capitalizes on this niche market. Brett and Jack also discuss the private credit market, the risks and benefits of securitization, the performance of the collateralized loan market, and much more. Recorded on September 10, 2024. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow the new host of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin https://x.com/fejau_inc Jack’s upcoming podcast, Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Trust Preferred CDOs (08:44) Starting Hildene Capital Management (10:44) Buying Trust Preferred CDOs (13:22) Deferred Payments (20:13) Trust Preferreds Regulated Out (23:15) Philadelphia Fed Paper (27:38) Taking Advantage Of Inefficient Markets (34:33) Private Credit (37:55) Hildene's Market Niche (44:11) The Structured Credit Market (51:44) Structured Security Correlations (55:20) Credit Market Risks (01:00:00) The Realities Of Private Credit (01:08:27) TruPS CDOs (01:11:03) Private Credit CLO Market (01:14:48) Risks & Rewards (01:18:58) Collateralized Loan Market Performance (01:25:28) Closing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Laila Kollmorgen, Portfolio Manager, CLO Tranche for Pinebridge Investments, joins Jack for a Fireside Chat on Forward Guidance to discuss why collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have rallied so much over the past two years as most of the fixed-income world has suffered enormously. Laila explains why she likes the structure of CLOs and why she thinks there will be an opportunity to be selective going forward as credit fundamentals begin to soften and valuations have increased. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Laila Kollmorgen’s articles on Pinebridge: https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/leveraged-finance-asset-allocation-insights-issuer-selection-is-key-as-loans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:15) What Is A Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)? (05:37) CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) vs. CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations): How CLOs Fared Much Better Than CDOs During The Great Financial Crisis (13:13) Market Value CDOs and CLO Reinvestment Periods (19:45) Why CLOs Have Performed So Well (24:54) If Silicon Valley Bank Had Invested In CLOs Instead of Long-Duration Paper (Agency MBS & Treasurys), Perhaps They Would Still Be Around! (35:26) CLO Valuations And Laila's Base Case For CLOs As Interest Rate Cutting Cycle Is About To Begin (41:21) Have Economic Fundamentals Begun To Soften? (43:37) Refinancing Risk (i.e. if CLO Manager Pays Off Tranche Liabilities At Par To Refinance At Tighter Spread) (46:32) Some CLO Investors Were Buying Callable Paper Above Part (>100)! (That's "Crazy" Says Kollmorgen) (51:59) The Maturity Wall For High Yield and Corporate Credit Has Been Extended (56:13) How Might Various Tranches Of CLO Asset Class Perform In A Recession? (59:41) Risk of Default and Risk of Distressed Sales (01:03:53) Views On Liquidity and Volatility (01:09:04) Not A Huge Fan of Private Credit CLOs (01:13:37) Thoughts on "Creditor on Creditor Violence" (01:17:10) Red Flags to Avoid In CLO World __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor befor

This interview with Matthew Sigel explores the bull case for bitcoin, its future as a reserve asset, and the economics of bitcoin miners. We also discuss miners pivoting to data centers, stablecoins, crypto regulation and much more. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on September 4, 2024. Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin Miners' AI Arbitrage Play to Boost Revenue": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-miners-ai-arbitrage-play-to-boost-revenue/ Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-2050-valuation-scenarios-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/ __ Follow Matthew Sigel on Twitter https://x.com/matthew_sigel Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) How Matthew Got Into Crypto (05:10) Fake & Bias News In Finance (07:51) The Case For Bitcoin (10:48) Bitcoin As A Reserve Asset (18:33) Nation States Leveraging Bitcoin (22:40) Profitability Of Bitcoin Mining (24:22) Catalysts For Bitcoin Adoption (26:52) Bitcoin As A Medium Of Exchange (28:42) Bitcoin Risks (33:34) Is The Bitcoin Supply Flexible? (35:08) Bitcoin Miner Economics (41:02) Bitcoin Miners Repurposing Their Energy (46:31) Bitcoin Vs Altcoins (53:53) Biggest Crypto Overweights & Underweights (58:09) Stablecoins (01:05:19) Crypto Politics & Regulation (01:07:40) NFTs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Imaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/ Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highs/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The New Bull Market In Gold (06:32) Investing In Gold Companies (09:14) How To Value A Gold Company (16:38) Cash Flow vs. Earnings? (19:25) Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices (22:51) Specific Gold Mining Stocks (25:36) Managing Jurisdictional Risk (36:54) Thinking About Depreciation (40:04) Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies (44:38) Gold Royalty Companies (52:06) Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects (58:32) Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more. __ Follow Jonny Mathews on Twitter https://x.com/super_macro Subscribe to Super Macro at https://super-macro.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Are We Headed For A Recession? (03:09) Income Growth Is Driving Consumption (05:45) Household Savings (07:44) Unemployment Will Moderate (15:40) Credit Markets (19:48) Permissionless Ad (20:48) Job Market Revisions (23:47) Opportunities In Fixed Income (27:32) Trading Interest Rates (30:53) Will Inflation Continue To Fall? (35:42) Labor Market Data (39:31) Opportunities In The UK (50:30) Home Run Trades (52:55) The Gold Market (55:33) China Outlook (01:01:24) S&P 500 Earnings (01:05:29) AI & Productivity (01:09:29) Super Macro Note (01:12:05) Jonny's Trading Experience (01:18:13) Stocks Over Bonds (01:20:27) Cumulative Personal Savings __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more. __ Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmith Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View (08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not (17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency (18:53) Permissionless Ad (19:51) Interview Continues (26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong (37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself (42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields? (49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money? (01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024. __ Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingto Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing (01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance (06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities (10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market (11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market (18:28) How India's Market Improved (22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves (24:29) India's Favorable Demographics (30:01) Best Performing Industries In India (33:09) India Inflation (35:31) India's Imports & Exports (36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations (45:58) Indian Investment Goals (49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector (53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market (01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly (01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds. __ Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy (02:58) The Fed & Interest Rates (03:55) Unemployment & The Sahm Rule (06:57) Is Inflation Coming Down? (08:33) Real Interest Rates (11:05) What Is The Neutral Rate? (14:21) The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle (18:41) Election Insights (20:55) Deficits Are The Key Issue (23:11) Will Stocks Outperform Bonds? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more. – Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) The Risks Of Financialization (02:07) Financial Market Signals (05:37) China & The Global Economy (09:44) China's Problems Are The World's Problem (15:15) US Economic Resilience (21:07) How Good Is The US Economy? (27:11) Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities (30:28) Comparing Major Economies (37:18) China's Economic Advantages (40:44) Where China Spends Its Money (49:44) China's Growing Influence (53:01) The US Economy & Inflation (01:10:31) European Economy (01:11:58) Asian Economies (01:14:48) Camp Kotok __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024. __ Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn https://blckwrks.co/3SUlCPt Follow Natalia urushina on Twitter https://x.com/NGurushina Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) How Eric Got Interested In Emerging Markets (03:38) Natalia's Introduction To Economics (05:55) How Big Is The EM Bond Market? (11:07) Why EM Bonds Have Outperformed (14:40) Weakness From Developed Markets (17:35) The Yen's Impact On EMs (26:24) BOJ Vs Brazilian Central Bank (29:16) Mexico's Fiscal Orthodoxy (30:58) Benefits Of Floating Currencies (34:32) Making Money In EM FX (36:53) Signal For EMs To Cut Rates (38:38) Role Of Hedge Funds In EM FX (41:25) Diversification In EMs (46:24) Sub-Saharan Africa (51:48) Importance Of India (59:40) Investing In China (01:04:49) China's Growth Model (01:17:10) Emerging Market Reserves (01:25:01) De-Dollarization __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI. -- Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Mike Harris Background As a Quant (03:07) Quest Hedge Fund (04:30) CTA Trend Following Strategy (11:50) Trend Following Examples (16:47) Permissionless Ad (17:44) Interview Continues (19:33) Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded (22:52) Statistical Arbitrage (27:17) Risks to Statistical Arbitrage (32:11) Multi-Strat Hedge Funds (33:32) Lack of New Fund Launches (39:04) Sharpe Ratio In Strategies (41:34) Private Market Investing (48:29) Volatility Strategies (54:17) Macro And Stock Market Outlook (01:02:26) Risks To Quest (01:06:02) Risks To Training Models With AI __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027. __ Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:26 Why George Robertson Is Bullish 04:12 Are Fiscal Deficits Juicing the Economy? 05:43 Impact Of Passive Fund Flows On The Market 09:33 Unemployment And The Labor Market 13:22 Government Spending And The Economy 20:16 GDP Is Booming 21:13 VanEck Ad 26:40 The Fed Is Looking For A Reason To Cut Rates 30:47 Are Higher Rates Stimulating The Economy? 35:46 Nominal GDP And Interest Rates 52:18 How The Fed Controls The Yield Curve 56:47 Rates Are Artificially Low 01:18:05 How The Fed Manipulates Treasury Rates 01:29:15 Market Distortions Pushing Risk Assets Higher 01:34:09 Stock Market Boom, Earnings & Valuations 01:59:54 Market Bubble Will Eventually Collapse 02:03:26 Reforming Entitlement Spending 02:08:36 The US Will Solve All Problems 02:15:34 The Ticking Time Bomb Of US Debt 02:24:07 How The 2024 Election Impacts The Economy 02:30:26 Learn More About George And Mel's Work 02:32:15 Thoughts On Small Caps __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is). __ Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Brent's Market Views (06:56) Brent's Dollar View (13:44) VanEck Ad (14:26) Interview Continues (17:57) Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop" (19:41) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (20:20) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (26:07) Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way (36:46) Permissionless Ad (37:53) Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market (43:19) Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze (48:37) Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar (01:02:00) Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports? (01:04:51) Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large (01:13:03) Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization? (01:16:17) Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://x.com/NoelConvex Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation. ___ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99 Mike Green’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report (05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now? (06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher (28:35) VanEck Ad (29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces (32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies? (42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining? (48:40) Permissionless Ad (49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger (53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More (01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices (01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup" (01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.