Forward Guidance

This week we discuss China’s economic stimulus, the resilience of the labor market, and the GDP/GDI revisions. We also delve into global liquidity & equity multiples, things to actually worry about in the future, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13soXH2F5Zv1f3SvJO6Oj5D7d1gtdBFEJ/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) China & Economic Stimulus (08:11) The World is Changing (12:26) Oil Market (15:45) Unpacking the Labor Market (23:27) Permissionless Ad (24:04) Interview Continues (25:15) Central Bank Politics (27:16) GDP & GDI (32:26) Global Liquidity & Equity Multiples (38:26) Things to be Worried About (45:40) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Prometheus Research: https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:17) The Prometheus Macro Framework (04:56) GDP & Economic Growth (14:11) Interest & Payment Expense (16:17) Exports (17:33) Putting the GDP Components Together (19:24) Corporate Profits & Savings Rates (23:31) Manufacturing Sector (30:31) The Business Cycle (35:03) The Labor Market & Recession Indicators (38:21) Inflation (40:25) Liquidity Breakdown (53:44) Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy (56:42) Prometheus Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Victory Lap (03:38) Quinn's Framework (06:11) Bullish Rate Cut? (09:30) Summary of Economic Projections (14:32) Bullish Market Signals (18:05) The World Trade (21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle (24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk (27:50) Private Credit (29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt (31:43) Permissionless Ad (32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle (34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI (37:13) Economic Expectations (39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls (44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone (50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity (53:32) The Banana Zone (58:58) Monetary Matters (01:01:09) Balancing Market Views — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Darius Dale: https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Overview of the Economy (02:42) Recession vs Normalization (05:48) 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut (10:17) Are We Price For Recession? (12:50) Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts (19:43) The Recessionistas Are Wrong (25:49) The Fiscal Impulse (28:55) Trend of US Growth (31:02) Permissionless Ad (31:42) The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials (40:31) Chinese Economy (44:32) Asset Allocation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun. Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270 Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948 __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession? (08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 (15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession (25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China (33:26) Permissionless Ad (34:25) China's Trade Surplus (38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It (45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo (01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Brett Jefferson discusses trust preferred CDOs, why they can provide such great opportunities, and how Brett’s fund capitalizes on this niche market. Brett and Jack also discuss the private credit market, the risks and benefits of securitization, the performance of the collateralized loan market, and much more. Recorded on September 10, 2024. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow the new host of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin https://x.com/fejau_inc Jack’s upcoming podcast, Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Trust Preferred CDOs (08:44) Starting Hildene Capital Management (10:44) Buying Trust Preferred CDOs (13:22) Deferred Payments (20:13) Trust Preferreds Regulated Out (23:15) Philadelphia Fed Paper (27:38) Taking Advantage Of Inefficient Markets (34:33) Private Credit (37:55) Hildene's Market Niche (44:11) The Structured Credit Market (51:44) Structured Security Correlations (55:20) Credit Market Risks (01:00:00) The Realities Of Private Credit (01:08:27) TruPS CDOs (01:11:03) Private Credit CLO Market (01:14:48) Risks & Rewards (01:18:58) Collateralized Loan Market Performance (01:25:28) Closing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Laila Kollmorgen, Portfolio Manager, CLO Tranche for Pinebridge Investments, joins Jack for a Fireside Chat on Forward Guidance to discuss why collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have rallied so much over the past two years as most of the fixed-income world has suffered enormously. Laila explains why she likes the structure of CLOs and why she thinks there will be an opportunity to be selective going forward as credit fundamentals begin to soften and valuations have increased. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Laila Kollmorgen’s articles on Pinebridge: https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/leveraged-finance-asset-allocation-insights-issuer-selection-is-key-as-loans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:15) What Is A Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)? (05:37) CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) vs. CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations): How CLOs Fared Much Better Than CDOs During The Great Financial Crisis (13:13) Market Value CDOs and CLO Reinvestment Periods (19:45) Why CLOs Have Performed So Well (24:54) If Silicon Valley Bank Had Invested In CLOs Instead of Long-Duration Paper (Agency MBS & Treasurys), Perhaps They Would Still Be Around! (35:26) CLO Valuations And Laila's Base Case For CLOs As Interest Rate Cutting Cycle Is About To Begin (41:21) Have Economic Fundamentals Begun To Soften? (43:37) Refinancing Risk (i.e. if CLO Manager Pays Off Tranche Liabilities At Par To Refinance At Tighter Spread) (46:32) Some CLO Investors Were Buying Callable Paper Above Part (>100)! (That's "Crazy" Says Kollmorgen) (51:59) The Maturity Wall For High Yield and Corporate Credit Has Been Extended (56:13) How Might Various Tranches Of CLO Asset Class Perform In A Recession? (59:41) Risk of Default and Risk of Distressed Sales (01:03:53) Views On Liquidity and Volatility (01:09:04) Not A Huge Fan of Private Credit CLOs (01:13:37) Thoughts on "Creditor on Creditor Violence" (01:17:10) Red Flags to Avoid In CLO World __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor befor

This interview with Matthew Sigel explores the bull case for bitcoin, its future as a reserve asset, and the economics of bitcoin miners. We also discuss miners pivoting to data centers, stablecoins, crypto regulation and much more. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on September 4, 2024. Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin Miners' AI Arbitrage Play to Boost Revenue": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-miners-ai-arbitrage-play-to-boost-revenue/ Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-2050-valuation-scenarios-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/ __ Follow Matthew Sigel on Twitter https://x.com/matthew_sigel Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) How Matthew Got Into Crypto (05:10) Fake & Bias News In Finance (07:51) The Case For Bitcoin (10:48) Bitcoin As A Reserve Asset (18:33) Nation States Leveraging Bitcoin (22:40) Profitability Of Bitcoin Mining (24:22) Catalysts For Bitcoin Adoption (26:52) Bitcoin As A Medium Of Exchange (28:42) Bitcoin Risks (33:34) Is The Bitcoin Supply Flexible? (35:08) Bitcoin Miner Economics (41:02) Bitcoin Miners Repurposing Their Energy (46:31) Bitcoin Vs Altcoins (53:53) Biggest Crypto Overweights & Underweights (58:09) Stablecoins (01:05:19) Crypto Politics & Regulation (01:07:40) NFTs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Imaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/ Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highs/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The New Bull Market In Gold (06:32) Investing In Gold Companies (09:14) How To Value A Gold Company (16:38) Cash Flow vs. Earnings? (19:25) Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices (22:51) Specific Gold Mining Stocks (25:36) Managing Jurisdictional Risk (36:54) Thinking About Depreciation (40:04) Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies (44:38) Gold Royalty Companies (52:06) Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects (58:32) Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more. __ Follow Jonny Mathews on Twitter https://x.com/super_macro Subscribe to Super Macro at https://super-macro.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Are We Headed For A Recession? (03:09) Income Growth Is Driving Consumption (05:45) Household Savings (07:44) Unemployment Will Moderate (15:40) Credit Markets (19:48) Permissionless Ad (20:48) Job Market Revisions (23:47) Opportunities In Fixed Income (27:32) Trading Interest Rates (30:53) Will Inflation Continue To Fall? (35:42) Labor Market Data (39:31) Opportunities In The UK (50:30) Home Run Trades (52:55) The Gold Market (55:33) China Outlook (01:01:24) S&P 500 Earnings (01:05:29) AI & Productivity (01:09:29) Super Macro Note (01:12:05) Jonny's Trading Experience (01:18:13) Stocks Over Bonds (01:20:27) Cumulative Personal Savings __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more. __ Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmith Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View (08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not (17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency (18:53) Permissionless Ad (19:51) Interview Continues (26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong (37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself (42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields? (49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money? (01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024. __ Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingto Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing (01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance (06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities (10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market (11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market (18:28) How India's Market Improved (22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves (24:29) India's Favorable Demographics (30:01) Best Performing Industries In India (33:09) India Inflation (35:31) India's Imports & Exports (36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations (45:58) Indian Investment Goals (49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector (53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market (01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly (01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds. __ Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy (02:58) The Fed & Interest Rates (03:55) Unemployment & The Sahm Rule (06:57) Is Inflation Coming Down? (08:33) Real Interest Rates (11:05) What Is The Neutral Rate? (14:21) The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle (18:41) Election Insights (20:55) Deficits Are The Key Issue (23:11) Will Stocks Outperform Bonds? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more. – Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) The Risks Of Financialization (02:07) Financial Market Signals (05:37) China & The Global Economy (09:44) China's Problems Are The World's Problem (15:15) US Economic Resilience (21:07) How Good Is The US Economy? (27:11) Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities (30:28) Comparing Major Economies (37:18) China's Economic Advantages (40:44) Where China Spends Its Money (49:44) China's Growing Influence (53:01) The US Economy & Inflation (01:10:31) European Economy (01:11:58) Asian Economies (01:14:48) Camp Kotok __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024. __ Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn https://blckwrks.co/3SUlCPt Follow Natalia urushina on Twitter https://x.com/NGurushina Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) How Eric Got Interested In Emerging Markets (03:38) Natalia's Introduction To Economics (05:55) How Big Is The EM Bond Market? (11:07) Why EM Bonds Have Outperformed (14:40) Weakness From Developed Markets (17:35) The Yen's Impact On EMs (26:24) BOJ Vs Brazilian Central Bank (29:16) Mexico's Fiscal Orthodoxy (30:58) Benefits Of Floating Currencies (34:32) Making Money In EM FX (36:53) Signal For EMs To Cut Rates (38:38) Role Of Hedge Funds In EM FX (41:25) Diversification In EMs (46:24) Sub-Saharan Africa (51:48) Importance Of India (59:40) Investing In China (01:04:49) China's Growth Model (01:17:10) Emerging Market Reserves (01:25:01) De-Dollarization __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI. -- Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Mike Harris Background As a Quant (03:07) Quest Hedge Fund (04:30) CTA Trend Following Strategy (11:50) Trend Following Examples (16:47) Permissionless Ad (17:44) Interview Continues (19:33) Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded (22:52) Statistical Arbitrage (27:17) Risks to Statistical Arbitrage (32:11) Multi-Strat Hedge Funds (33:32) Lack of New Fund Launches (39:04) Sharpe Ratio In Strategies (41:34) Private Market Investing (48:29) Volatility Strategies (54:17) Macro And Stock Market Outlook (01:02:26) Risks To Quest (01:06:02) Risks To Training Models With AI __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027. __ Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:26 Why George Robertson Is Bullish 04:12 Are Fiscal Deficits Juicing the Economy? 05:43 Impact Of Passive Fund Flows On The Market 09:33 Unemployment And The Labor Market 13:22 Government Spending And The Economy 20:16 GDP Is Booming 21:13 VanEck Ad 26:40 The Fed Is Looking For A Reason To Cut Rates 30:47 Are Higher Rates Stimulating The Economy? 35:46 Nominal GDP And Interest Rates 52:18 How The Fed Controls The Yield Curve 56:47 Rates Are Artificially Low 01:18:05 How The Fed Manipulates Treasury Rates 01:29:15 Market Distortions Pushing Risk Assets Higher 01:34:09 Stock Market Boom, Earnings & Valuations 01:59:54 Market Bubble Will Eventually Collapse 02:03:26 Reforming Entitlement Spending 02:08:36 The US Will Solve All Problems 02:15:34 The Ticking Time Bomb Of US Debt 02:24:07 How The 2024 Election Impacts The Economy 02:30:26 Learn More About George And Mel's Work 02:32:15 Thoughts On Small Caps __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is). __ Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Brent's Market Views (06:56) Brent's Dollar View (13:44) VanEck Ad (14:26) Interview Continues (17:57) Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop" (19:41) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (20:20) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (26:07) Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way (36:46) Permissionless Ad (37:53) Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market (43:19) Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze (48:37) Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar (01:02:00) Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports? (01:04:51) Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large (01:13:03) Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization? (01:16:17) Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://x.com/NoelConvex Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation. ___ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99 Mike Green’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report (05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now? (06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher (28:35) VanEck Ad (29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces (32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies? (42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining? (48:40) Permissionless Ad (49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger (53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More (01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices (01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup" (01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick’s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) VanEck Ad (13:14) Interview Continues (19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September? (24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market? (25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market (31:41) The Housing Market (36:41) Permissionless Ad (37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign" (47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates (50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President? (54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another (57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed) (01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:36) The High-Yield Bond Market (10:08) VanEck Ad (10:48) Putting Money To Work When Credit Is Priced Optimistically (19:27) The Bank Loan Market (i.e. Leveraged Loans) (25:04) How Are Loan Borrowers Handling 500 Basis Points Of Increased Debt Costs? (28:59) Permissionless Ad (29:58) The Rise of Private Credit: Are We In The Golden Age? (41:34) Is Private Credit An Untested Asset Class In A Potential Recession? (46:53) What Is The Private Credit Money Used For? (52:57) Why Do Active Managers Manage To Outperform The Index In Credit, When In Equities So Many Underperform? (58:51) Loan Refinancings Are Occurring At A Record Pace (01:03:02) Structured Credit And Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities) (01:04:40) Specialty Retail and Emerging Markets (01:07:02) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Tommy Thornton on Twitter https://x.com/TommyThornton Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:52) Tech Stocks Are In A "Bubble," Argues Tommy (15:29) Earnings Season So Far: Tesla and Google (20:51) VanEck Ad (21:32) Interview Continues (25:33) Nvidia and Apple (37:03) What Tom Is Short (39:39) What Tom Is Long (51:49) Permissionless Ad (52:51) Interview Continues (01:00:26) National Debt and Recession Odds (01:03:48) What Would It Take For Tommy To Turn Bullish? (01:14:28) Tom's Story About Charlie Munger __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944 Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)? (08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance" (20:52) VanEck Ad (24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing") (29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic (33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns? (45:43) Permissionless Ad (46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment? (59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration? (01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets" (01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too (01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook (04:59) Bank of America (12:54) VanEck Ad (15:39) Charles Schwab (20:27) Credit Cards and Auto (27:21) Permissionless Ad (28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks (40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up (44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity (47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers (56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Recent writings by Michael Pettis: “Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en “Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/ “Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model (09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard (17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China (20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s (24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.) (28:06) VanEck Ad (28:46) Interview Continues (36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists (49:58) Permissionless Ad (50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"? (57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort" (01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit (01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances (01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World (01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control) (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Peter Boockvar on Twitter https://twitter.com/pboockvar Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In A Recession (12:26) VanEck Ad (13:06) Interview Continues (21:12) Is The AI Narrative That's Fueling The Stock Market Rally Real? (48:07) Japan (54:36) China (01:09:19) 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (01:11:42) Is The Boom In Private Credit & Private Equity Going To End Badly? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/ Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:10) Railroads (19:50) VanEck Ad (20:30) Airlines __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far? (05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harburg (10:21) Current State of Chinese Real Estate Market (15:56) Is Economic Stimulus From The Chinese Government On Its Way? (19:28) Are Chinese Policymakers Worried About Deflation? (21:16) Western Goods Are Being "Slaughtered" By Chinese Consumption of Domestically-Produced Goods (24:35) VanEck Ad (25:29) Spending Is "Definitely Weak" As "People Are Losing Their Jobs" (26:42) Not In DNA of Chinese Government To Enact a "Major Stimulus Package" (28:59) India Is A "Mirage" Where Corruption Is Actually Higher Than In China, Argues Harburg (36:46) Delisting of DiDi Was "Justified" But The Chinese Government Often Does Not Provide Sufficient Detail On Rationale Behind Policies (41:01) The Chinese Labor Market (43:09) Permissionless Ad (44:15) The Chinese Stock Market (49:28) Chinese Electric Vehicles (54:19) Tariffs Against China: Why Chinese Leaders Would Prefer Trump Over Biden (01:00:49) Does Beijing Look Fondly Upon Bank Credit Being Directed Away From Real Estate And Into Consumer Lending? (01:06:21) Private Markets In China Are "Very Challenged" (01:12:17) China's Central Bank (The People's Bank of China) (01:14:11) Chinese Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years (05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022 (19:36) VanEck Ad (20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism? (26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy? (39:56) Permissionless III Ad (40:54) AI And Labor Productivity (54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats (01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024? (01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks (01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions (01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://x.com/RenMacLLC?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow RenMac website: https://t.co/VJIDWiWMkc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing? (10:26) Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election (21:54) VanEck Ad (22:36) Odds Of A Recession (29:33) Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is? (48:25) Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks (58:42) The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jonah van Bourg on Twitter https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x podcast on Twitter https://x.com/1000xPod Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Jonah's Background At Lehman, Goldman, Vitol, and Cumberland (04:18) Jonah on Crypto: "I'm So Bullish I Can't See Straight" (06:18) Why Jonah Thinks Bitcoin Will Stay In A Range ("Proper Chop") Before Shooting Higher (09:11) Jonah: Bitcoin Is Better At Conducting Large Scale Commodity Transactions Than Most Non-Reserve Fiat Currencies (22:01) VanEck Ad (28:20) Has Saudi Arabia Moved Off The Petrodollar? (30:09) Is Mt. Gox Unlock of Bitcoin A Big Deal? (34:25) Jonah on The Real Reason Crypto Is Going Down: "Most Altcoins Are Worthless": You "Shitcoin of Choice" Is Probably Dead (45:19) The Rise of Stablecoins (48:26) The "AI" Crypto Coins (50:40) Jonah on Oil: There's A Lot Of Spare Capacity, Hard To See A Big Move Higher (58:09) The Best Trade of 2024 In Oil Has Been Selling Options (01:06:34) Why Jonah Is Bullish Distillates (01:10:15) Jonah on Oil Refineries (01:13:34) Natural Gas (01:20:25) Uranium and Gold (01:22:58) Fiat Debasement and Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy! -- Follow tZERO on Twitter https://x.com/tZERO Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR (16:05) VanEck Ad (16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy (22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading (24:57) What Is tZERO? (36:43) What Is A Security? (38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity (48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering (56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Midas’ website: https://midas.app/ Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/ Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro (05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000 (07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021 (11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real) (16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This? (19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical (21:19) VanEck Ad (21:59) Palantir and Anduril (26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S. (30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022 (33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI) (36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto (39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain (44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis (47:50) Tether and Circle (49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.) (51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore (53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare (57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon? (58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas (59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc. (01:04:27) FedNow (01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem? (01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk (01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024 (01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech (01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now (07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market? (20:04) VanEck Ad (20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations (26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers (28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks (29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners (33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump (37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025) (40:13) China (46:32) Trump on Crypto (48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why? (54:12) Tarriff Basket (56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) (58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company (01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English (01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed (01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished (01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks? (01:19:03) China's AI Stocks (01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now (01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX (01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Eric Pachman on Twitter https://x.com/EricPachman Follow Bancreek on Twitter https://x.com/bancreek Bancreek’s CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu Bancreek’s PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update Bancreek’s labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The U.S. Labor Market (03:57) Tree Map Of Where New U.S. Jobs Are Being Created (It's A LOT In Healthcare and Government Sector) (19:50) VanEck Ad (23:17) The Growth In U.S. Government Jobs (28:39) U.S. Healthcare Industry Is Incentivized For High Prices And High Job Growth Is A Consequence (45:00) Homebuilding, Oil & Gas, and Retail (52:11) Inflation Masterclass: Differences Between CPI & PCE (01:11:35) Healthcare in PCE & CPI (01:28:46) With Housing Inflation Where It Is, It Is Nearly Statistically Impossible For Inflation To Be At Or Below The Fed's Target of 2% __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Barry Knapp on Twitter https://x.com/barryknapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma (09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve (34:06) VanEck Ad (34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market) (38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy (43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective (48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products (50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 (01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 17:39 VanEck Ad __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. William English’s work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english William English’s co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation William English’s co-authored Chapter on the Fed’s Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml William English’s 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm “Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations”: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were (03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing? (07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy (09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021 (13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice (18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) (23:41) VanEck Ad (24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later (29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size (32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects? (36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect (44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020 (52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet (57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019 (01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction? (01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy? (01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://x.com/PPGMacro Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure (05:20) "Froth" In Commodities (11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S. (19:41) VanEck Ad (20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be? (34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows (41:21) War And Finance (45:30) Bank of Japan (54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades (01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in! - - Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod Subscribe on Apple: http://apple.co/4bGKYYM Subscribe on Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3Vaubq1 Follow Zon: https://x.com/ItsAlwaysZonny Follow Keone: https://x.com/keoneHD Follow Rex: https://x.com/LogarithmicRex Follow nosleepjon: https://x.com/nosleepjon Follow Expansion: https://x.com/ExpansionPod_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (03:24) Modular vs Integrated (11:47) Who are Appchains for? (28:58) Composability in Modular World (36:15) Monad's Endgame (39:47) Importance of Decentralization (48:05) Building Web3 Community -- Disclaimer: Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation. Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://x.com/jnordvig ExAnte Data on Twitter https://x.com/ExanteData MarketReader on Twitter https://x.com/MarketReaderInc Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) Japan (11:48) Wages Are Rising In Japan (16:45) The Effective End Of Yield Curve Control (YCC) In Japan (22:57) When Will The Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates? (25:03) VanEck Ad (26:43) How High Will The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Go? (33:12) Jens' View On The Japanese Yen (56:00) Jens' Updated Views On U.S. Dollar And U.S. Rates __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://x.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Jason Shapiro website https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/ Jason Shapiro YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@crowdedmarketreport Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks (03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble (06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet" (13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner (20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here" (22:37) VanEck Ad (23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take (26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell (27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One (36:49) Bond Market Positioning (41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit (43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks (44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500) (51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth (56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks" (01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason (01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan (18:01) Is This Legal? (23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) (28:32) Zillow’s Business Model (35:24) VanEck Ad (36:04) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change (39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down (44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits? (48:40) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes (54:11) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia (01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC (01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/ Follow Kyla Scanlon on Twitter https://x.com/kylascan Follow Kyla Scanlon on TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan Kyla Scanlon’s website https://kylascanlon.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) In This Economy? (07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now (11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (14:21) VanEck Ad (15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued) (19:45) Declinism & Doomerism (27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S. (32:46) Political Polarization (34:16) The Origin Of Money (36:10) MMT & Debt (40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties. Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024. James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0 Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0 Follow James Fishback on Twitter https://x.com/j_fishback Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Job Offer And Title (12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro? (20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest) (23:48) Van Eck Ad (24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing" (31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro" (50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie" (56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial" (58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023 (01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment" (01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn (01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem" (01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative (01:19:17) Higher For Longer (01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election (01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve) (01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft (01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency (01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1 Mel Mattison’s book https://www.melmattison.com/quoz Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Mel’s Background (04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years) (06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market (11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook (14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard” (17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”) (24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s (27:56) VanEck Ad (28:38) Why Now? (37:01) Great Depression (43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues (48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)? (59:14) Timing: 2027 (01:04:52) Social Security Funding (01:17:01) Gold and Inflation (01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Nick Givanovic on Twitter https://twitter.com/nickgiva1 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise (05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure (06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons (21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions (25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish (26:13) VanEck Ad (27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry? (28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia (33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert? (39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely) (54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market (01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks (01:07:49) The Labor Market (01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Keith Dicker on Twitter https://twitter.com/IceCapGlobal Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (01:07) An Overview Of Currencies (09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge (20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe (25:41) Economic Outlook (29:27) VanEck Ad (30:28) (34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies (36:23) Emerging Market Currencies (42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit (45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007 (49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY) (01:00:27) View On Stock Market (01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.