Unexpected Points

Kevin goes through the Week 1 slate with all the advanced stats and proprietary numbers you need to know. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all the relevant numbers for the first game of the season, why to love the Bills start, but also not go overboard with enthusiasm. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks through his Bayesian QB rankings, who is undervalued and how it differs from other rankings out there. Plus, his numbers-based best bets for Week 1 and a breakdown of the Russell Wilson extension This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down some of the more notable roster cuts, trades among all 32 teams, and Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco for atleast another season as the 9ers' backup. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through every game from the final preseason week, plus discusses the biggest stories around the NFL. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews are the relevant stats from the second week of the NFL preseason.00:00 Intro01:25 Life in the Silicon Valley03:27 Preseason Week 2 Review Setup04:15 Does the preseason matter08:18 Young quarterback performances: Pickett, Willis, Skylar Thompson, etc20:28 Why Pickett should start Week 123:45 Running back review30:22 Wide receiver review39:25 Tight end review This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks with professional bettor and BetStamp co-founder Rob Pizzola about his business endeavors and takes on teams that are under- and overvalued in 2022.0:00 Intro02:49 What is a professional sports bettor? Why have a public presence14:18 What is betstamp?33:25 Does a positive record mean someone is a good bettor?40:38 2022 Betting Preview47:10 High on the Eagles54:15 Low on the Bears57:44 High on the Saints1:04:35 Low on the Giants1:10:24 Figuring out the Browns1:14:25 Figuring out the Patriots1:17:50 Figuring out the Cardinals1:21:50 Figuring out the 49ers This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses the implications of the Watson settlement. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through what matter from Week 1 of the preseason, especially in terms of depth charts and young QB play. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin and Josh give their boldest, realistic predictions for the 2022 NFL season. Plus, a few of Hard Knock Ep 1 and the Dan Campbell experience. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the lookahead betting lines to quantitatively rank NFL teams and find value where the market currently doesn't see it. Plus, talk about Kareem Hunt's contract and what it says about the player empowerment era in the NFL. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin details why the Dolphins fine was significant and what to pay attention in training camp this week and beyond. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses the why of the Watson decision whether it will be appealed and what it means for the Browns' season. Plus, separating the signal and noise in training camp news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Josh Hermsmeyer of 538 joins Kevin to opine on the coaches/executive quarterback rankings released in a recent article and go pick-by-pick giving their own rankings and rationales, plus what a strict analytical model predicts for the 2022 season. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down the details of the Kyler Murray contract and how good he's been so far in his career and what to expect going forward. Plus, a look at the best PFF research that came out this offseason. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin counts down the final five greatest statistical QBs of all time. 00:00 Episode Intro/Preview 02:00 #10-#6 Recap 09:00 #5: Drew Brees 18:55 #4: Dan Marino 27:48 #3 Otto Graham 36:57 #2 Peyton Manning 57:51 #1 Tom Brady PFF LINKS: Underdog Fantasy: Double your first deposit up to $100 when you sign up with the promo code PFF and get a FREE PFF subscription: https://bit.ly/PlayBestBall MANSCAPED: Get 20% Off and Free Shipping with the code PFF at http://Manscaped.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin continues to count down the best statistical QBs in NFL history. Plus, some analysis of the salary tag. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes further into the controversy around Lamar Jackson not making the top-10 quarterbacks in a recent NFL poll. Plus, he continues to count down the greatest statistical quarterbacks of all time, this episode going through 20-11. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin explains why the Baker trade is good and bad for the Panthers, what ESPN QB rankings say about recency bias, and continues to count down the greatest statistical QBs of all time. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin continues to count down the statistical GOAT quarterbacks according to passing and rushing value added through their careers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down the latest tape vs analytics war on social media, which he helped start by posting an interview with Titans GM Jon Robinson where he sounded skeptical of analytics value. Plus, answering listener questions.Episode Timestamps:00:00 Pre-roll, Intro music01:07 Details on the pod, QB GOAT Preview02:37 Jon Robinson's misguided view on analytics12:30 Kwesi Adofo-Mensa's holistic view on analytics17:51 Is Robinson a great GM?27:50 Mailbag This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin counts down the best statistical resumes for quarterbacks in NFL history, starting with numbers 50 through 41.Episode Timestamps:00:00 Pre-roll00:47 Intro Music01:07 Explanation of QB GOAT Methodology09:06 Honorable mentions outside the top-5012:40 No. 50: Billy Kilmer13:34 No. 49: Bobby Layne17:23 No. 48: Randall Cunningham20:35 No. 47: Daunte Culpepper23:03 No. 46: Trent Green27:10 No. 45: Steve McNair31:47 No. 44: Bert Jones33:50 No. 43: Joe Theismann37:37 No. 42: John Hadl39:15 No. 41: Bob Griese This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin looks over the greatest tight end career to decide if Rob Gronkowski is the greatest of them all. Plus, words of wisdom from Mike Tomlin and an update on a potential indefinite suspension for Deshaun Watson. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks with the NFL's director for data analytics about his work to improve the league's quality pf play, officiating, hiring practices and injury prevention. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through recent PFF research of the effect of perfect coverage, gives the pluses and minuses of different QB stats and talks about the conflicts of politics on social media for sports reporters. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks to Adam Beard, Cubs Director of High Performance, about the lessons learned with his time in a similar role with the Browns and how sports science has impacted the NFL. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses the news from the previous week, with a focus on what the mainstream narratives might be missing. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin and Josh give their best ideals for the NFL that media and football guys would consider cancellable. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the news of the week. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Carnegie Mellon professor and creator of nflscrapR talks with Kevin about the trend in NFL analytics, what he's learned working with tracking data and where analysis goes wrong. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses the David Njoku extension in the larger context of the Browns going for it in 2022, plus some stats being misused and mailbag answers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks with Sean Clement, former R&D analyst for multiple NFL franchises, about the trends in the NFL communicating with coaches and where the game is going. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

In the first annual Unexpected Points Haters Ball, Kevin hates on a few things that have come across his radar in the last several weeks. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the Week 1 betting lines, how the market has tiered NFL teams and other news from the week. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the best bets and longshots for NFL 2022 awards and answers listener questions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Ben Baldwin of the Athletic joins Kevin to talk through their front office rankings now the the 2022 NFL draft and free agency offseason is mostly complete. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through his post-draft models looking at the likelihood of NFL success for 2022 WRs and RBs. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the unexpected winners and losers of the 2022 NFL draft. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down the winner and losers of a trade-filled first round.0:01 Intro6:22 AJ Brown Traded to the Eagles14:52 Hollywood Brown Traded to Cardinals18:20 Only Kenny Pickett Drafted in Round 122:19 WR Drafted in Round 125:59 Steals & Reaches in Round 1 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses movements in the NFL draft prop markets. Plus, why the QB evaluators are good at what they do, not what they haven't studied. Plus mailbag. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Matt Freedman joins Kevin to discuss betting NFL draft props and the Deebo Samuel trade request news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin looks at recent player extensions and what they mean for the broader NFL landscape. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin is joined by Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis to discuss the 2022 wide receiver class. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses the Eagles-Saints trade and the best strategy for teams drafting early in the 2022 NFL draft This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Jim Sannes of FanDuel and numberFire joins the pod to talk about his quarterback prospect model and what it says about the 2022 class. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks about the shifting dynamics in the wide receiver trade market and which teams added the most value at the right prices in free agency. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Sam Schwartzstein joins the pod to talk about his time building the rules at the XFL, what the NFL could do to improve its rules and what he thinks about the new overtime rules for the playoffs. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through what we heard from Andrew Berry, Deshaun Watson and the Browns owners in their first public appearances after the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the winners and loser of the Tyreek Hill trade, and looks back at the Chiefs strategy the last few season building around Patrick Mahomes. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all the numbers for the practical costs and Super Bowl probability impacts of the big NFL trades. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe