Unexpected Points

Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) of Betting Pros joins me to talk:* The rules you need to follow when thinking about Super Bowl prop betting* Some of his favorites bets for this matchupUnexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.View on YouTube:Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!Listen on Spotify:Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews* Weekly updated Power Ratings* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency* Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputsFollow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comWatch the entire episode for free on YouTube. Please subscribe to the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.

Benjamin Robinson (@benj_robinson) of Grinding the Mocks joins me to talk:* How he came up with the idea of collecting and analyzing mock draft data* What traits we’re looking for in strong draft analysts, the draft “Super Forecasters”* Applications for his vast set of mock draft dataUnexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.View on YouTube:Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!Listen on Spotify:Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews* Weekly updated Power Ratings* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency* Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputsFollow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Sam Schwartzstein (@schwartzsteins) Amazon Prime TNF broadcast joins me to talk:* His lessons from the first season of streaming broadcasting at Amazon, including the Prime Vision broadcast he helped design* How the Eagles and Chiefs match up in the Super Bowl, what insights we can take from two different ways of teambuilding* Why teams should never feel satisfied at premium positions* What the Bengals and 49ers need to do to stay competitive this offseasonUnexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.View on YouTube:Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!Listen on Spotify:Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews* Weekly updated Power Ratings* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency* Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputsFollow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comFor the full episode, get a paid subscriptionUnexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Watch on YouTube:

Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscojosh) of FiveThirtyEight joins me to discuss:* What makes a great analytical franchise, why the Eagles are lapping the field* The Nathaniel Hackett hire* What the Giants and Ravens should do at QB* Revisit bold offseason predictions* Whether Brock Purdy can sustain his strong efficiencyView on YouTube:Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!Listen on Spotify:Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews* Weekly updated Power Ratings* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency* Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputsFollow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins me to discuss how the six playoff losers should approach the offseason:* Should the Vikings look at the fundamentals and choose mini-rebuild?* Are the Bucs done in their current form?* Why the Seahawks have to look at rookie quarterbacks drafting in the top-5* Have the Chargers missed the rookie-contract window for Justin Herbert?* Lamar Jackson done in Baltimore?* The Dolphins need to go all-in on 2023View on YouTube:Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!Listen on Spotify:Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews* Weekly updated Power Ratings* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency* Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputsFollow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comI talk through all that happened this week, including:* Reactions to my Bears No. 1 pick article and how to hire coaches* All-Pro Voting, why the new system of rank ordering is better* And paid subscriber Q&A:* Lamar Jackson: What will happen this offseason?* Ranking the coaching vacancies* How much of QB development is intrinsic?* How should the Jets play going after Derek Carr?Please upgrade to a paid sub (if you don’t have one) to support my work and hear the entire episode. If you can’t afford a paid sub right now, reply to this email and I’ll comp you a 6-month, no-questions-asked sub. Appreciate all who take their valuable time and spend it engaging with my work.View on YouTube:

Tej Seth and Arjun Menon join the pod to talk about their podcast, Take the Points, plus:* What the Bears should do with the No. 1 pick * Preview the playoffs* Their Big Data Bowl research* How to break into sports analyticsView on YouTube:Listen on Apple: Please rate and review!Listen on Spotify:Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts,* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews* Weekly updated Power Ratings* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency* Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputsFollow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.comView on YouTube:

Ted Knutson, CEO and founder of StatsBomb, joins me to talk about his journey through being a professional bettor, bookmaker and creating innovative data and insights for professional soccer and American football.Follow Ted on Twitter: @mixedknutsListen on Apple: Please rate and review!Listen on Spotify:View on YouTube:Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts, including:* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews* Weekly updated Power Ratings* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency* Paid subscriber access to Google sheet with downloadable metrics and inputsFollow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

This week Ed Feng of the The Power Rank joins me to talk about the process of ranking teams and what it means for Week 16. We also talk a little soccer in the wake of the World Cup.You can find Ed on twitter, or his great site for betting info and predictions.If watching on YouTube is your thing.Subscribe to my substack for daily written content and twice a week podcasts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

For this week’s solo wrap-up pod, I discuss the significance of Mike Leach, and how his thoughtful and intentional way of understanding the game was analytics without numbers.Plus, I introduce the first selection in what will hopefully be an ongoing thing: The Unexpected Points Book Club. We’re going to start with The Perfect Pass by S.C. Gwynne. It’s a fantastic story of the Air Raid’s founding and ascendance, with Hal Mumme and Mike Leach prominently featured. Lots of lessons from this book to apply to any endeavor, especially when looking to challenge the establishment order.I lastly have some Q&A from the livestream and detail this weeks research on Joe Burrow’s declining sack rate and Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE).Leave comments about “The Perfect Pass” here if you’ve already read the book, or are now motivated to start, and I’ll discuss them in the next episode. I’m planning on reviewing the first half of the book (Chapters 1-10) in next Friday’s pod.Take care.Thanks for reading Unexpected Points! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Chase Stuart wrote a daily blog at Football Perspective for a decade, and before that helped craft early analytical measures like ANY/A at Pro Football Reference. Chase brings a longer-term perspective to the NFL and how the league has changed over the past couple decades.Chase joins Kevin to discuss his history, what the current discourse is missing, and which teams he believes are better or worse than their records. Plus, talk on his beloved Jets.Follow Chase on twitter. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

I’m back on the podcasting streets. You can watch this replay on YouTube to see the video clips of the Mahomes interview, or perhaps my animated talking.I discuss my takes and research (research in links):* The injury of Jimmy Garoppolo and what it means for the 49ers.* Baker’s magical evening, McDaniels blowing it and if McVay can turn him around.* Jon Robinson’s firing and how billion-dollar NFL franchises aren’t run like stable businesses.* YouTube Live Watchers Q&A: Patriots playoff chances? Is Justin Field legit? What should the Jets do at QB?You support the pod and my research by subscribing to the Unexpected Points Substack. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review.Thanks so much and I'll be back later this week (hopefully). This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews the three NFL games from Thanksgiving, plus a few model-based best bets. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the MNF matchup with Jimmy shinning, points out the problems with being obsessed with upgrading a "limited" quarterback like Jimmy G or Tua, and all the Zach Wilson drama. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all the numbers and takeaways from Week 11. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the TNF matchup, a ESPN segment of the return of the run and best bet for Week 11. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin is re-joined by The Ringer's Steve Ruiz to evaluate some of the NFL's younger QB talent. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and grades from Week 10's Sunday slate. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the numbers and implications of the Panthers-Falcons game, plus why Jeff Saturday is skeptical of analytics and the best bets for the weekend by the numbers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews the MNF matchup and goes in-depth on the decision to fire Frank Reich and replace him with Jeff Saturday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all Sunday's action with the advanced stats and grades. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes over a surprisingly close TNF contest and his favorite recreational bets for Sunday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Former PFFer Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins Kevin to talk about the marco lesson of the deadline and the specific deals that went down this week. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews and the numbers and grades for Sunday Week 8. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks through the Ravens TNF victory and analyzes the Toney, Quinn and Robinson trades. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Today, Kevin is re-joined by Prime Video TNF analytics guru, former NFL offensive lineman Sam Schwartzstein to discuss solutions for fixing some NFL offenses, and Prime Video analytics. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews all the relevant numbers and adjusted scores for Sunday's action This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin recaps Thursday Night Football between the Cardinals & Saints, and breaks down the CMC trade. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks through the key numbers, grades and takeaways from MNF, plus a look at how to discuss analytics in a better way that we saw in the pre-game show. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin review all the number from Week 6. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses the slog that was TNF, plus the stories of the week and some bets he likes for the rest of Week 6.00:00 Intro01:00 Analytics discourse taking over04:37 Bears-Commanders review05:47 Lack of scoring this season11:48 4th down decisions13:48 Justin Fields talk22:12 Dan Synder article25:50 Carson Wentz catching strays32:00 Week 6 Best Bets This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews a wild Chiefs-Raiders matchup and previews TNF. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews the Sunday slate and previews Chiefs-Raiders MNF matchup. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews an awful TNF game and looks forward to this weekend's action. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews MNF and previews TNF between the Broncos and Colts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the Sunday slate of games giving all the adjusted scores and important details on what drove the outcomes. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews this week's TNF matchup and the weekend best bets. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews the MNF matchup with all the advanced stats and adjusted scores, plus a preview of a highly anticipated Bengals-Dolphins game on TNF. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the Week 3 Sunday slate of games with all the advanced stats, adjusted scores and big-picture takeaways. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all the advanced stats and grades for Browns-Steelers, plus a few bets he likes for this Sunday's action. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all the grading and advanced stats for the two MNF games and what it means for the teams going forward. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through every Sunday game, gives his predictive adjusted scores and points out the most important stats and data to forecast what will happen the rest of the season.DRAFTKINGS: If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/LA/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit http://ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA (select parishes)/MI/NH/NJ/ NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. New customer offer void in NH/OR/ONT-CA. $200 in Free bets: New customers only. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min $5 wager. $200 issued as eight (8) $25 free bets. Ends 9/19/22 @ 8pm. Early Win: 1 Early Win Token issued per eligible game. Opt in req. Token expires at start of eligible game. Min moneyline bet $1. Wagering limits apply. Wagers placed on both sides of moneyline will void bet. Ends 1/8/23 @ 8pm ET. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com/footballterms.(00:00) Intro(01:01) Adjusted scores controversy(03:12) Are comebacks happening more often?(05:34) Saints-Bucs(13:56) Jaguars-Colts(19:30) Lions-Commanders(23:47) Why you go for 2 down 8(28:02) Ravens-Dolphins(35:40) Browns-Jets(41:22) Giants-Panthers(47:38) Patriots-Steelers(53:36) Rams-Falcons(58:04) 49ers-Seahawks(1:04:28) Cowboys-Bengals(1:10:25) Raiders-Cardinals(1:12:30) Broncos-Texans(1:16:30) Packers-Bears This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes over all the relevant numbers and grades from the matchup of the Chiefs and Chargers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down MNF and why Mahomes' grading is relatively low. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe