Unexpected Points

Kevin and Ryan Paganetti talk through the details of Chiefs vs Browns, including how the Browns played better than their numbers, and Kevin Stefanski had perfect decision-making. Plus, why the Patriots are unvalued after a Week 1 loss in a game where they outplayed the Dolphins. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin looks deep into the advanced stats to show that the Bucs were more than two points better than the Cowboys, plus one thing to watch for every team playing this weekend. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Former coach and game management specialist Ryan Paganetti joins Kevin to discuss what they're looking for when they watch games and study the numbers, they break down TNF Buccaneers-Cowboys, or the "Does Defense Matter" Bowl, and Ryan presents a paradigm-shifting idea on how teams can block 30-50% of opponents' field-goal attempts with little additional investment. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin provides insight on Mac Jones getting the Week 1 start while making the case it won't take long for Justin Fields, Urban Meyer's farcical QB competition leads to cancellation, a review of smart game management during the last week of the preseason, and players you need to target in every round of fantasy football drafts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks to JJ Zachariason, editor-in-chief at FanDuel, about his 15 bold predictions, including Trey Lance being a top-5 quarterback, Najee Harris being a top-8 running back and DeVonta Smith leading all rookie wide receivers in fantasy. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks with former game mangement coach Ryan Paganetti about his time working with Chip Kelly and Doug Pederson, he takes us inside the booth and behind the scenes on how coaches view analytics, plus we discuss a few great stories, including Doug Pederson wanting to be a little too aggressive in the Super Bowl. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses his new research that shows strong value for the top NFL runners, but still leaves questions about paying them big money. Plus, how the Josh Allen extension shifts the extension market for Baker and Lamar, and a handful of WRs you need in every fantasy draft. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

(0:00-16:02) Wentz injury/Impact on the Colts moving forward and potential new faces at QB (16:03-25:04) Nick Chubb’s New contact and the Significance it has on the Browns salary cap (25:05-33:43) “Stick to Sports” Kevin discusses his thoughts on Simone Biles decision to not compete in Olympics (33:43-43:09) New Segment, “When keeping real goes Wrong" Does the salary cap add parody to the NFL?(43:10-53:45) Kevin breaks down PFF’s Expected Fantasy Point Tool and how you can use it in your analysis ahead of fantasy drafts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks through the Aaron Rodgers agreement and what it means for Davante Adams, and how the NFLPA has failed to protect players from COVID-related financial losses. Plus, we talk with Keevin Meers of Zelus Analytics about how teams should focus more on macro strategy, and what the public doesn't know about analysis from the inside on an NFL franchise. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talk through the Aaron Rodgers drama and why passing up a big contract isn't that important, how to view Darrell Henderson after the Cam Akers injury, why teams should be proactive extending QBs, and why empathy makes us bad fans and decision-makers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

(4:55) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s PFF grades leading up to his trade to the Rams (8:00) Breaking down Stafford’s 2020 Ranking (10th) to 2021 (6th) (10:20) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s lack of production despite having top tier receivers (11:40) Why Lamar Jackson should be ranked higher than Stafford headed into 2021 (13:17) Matt Stafford: Overrated?Lamar Jackson: Underrated? (14:51) Is it possible to be underrated if everyone thinks you are underrated? (18:06) Looking into the media/fans determining who is overrated/underrated/right on point (19:59) Breaking down Fantasy Running backs for your upcoming draft (20:42) Why 2nd/3rd year running backs should be your main focus when drafting for Fantasy(23:25) Kevin highlights RBs to look out for in 2021: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary (26:45) Regret Aversion: Kevin talks about Kyle Shannahan’s biggest regret as a play caller, looks into analytics of offensive play calling/decision making (40:13) Kevin looks into mitigating regret aversion as a decision maker and the sacrifices that need to be made This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

The Process (2:30) Browns new front office (4:45) Turning over likelihood of success to luck (8:00) Winning Championships (9:50) Letting players go (11:50) Picking the right players (13:00) Hue Jackson discussion (16:00) Talks about interview with Paul DePodesta (20:00) Browns progress season to season (23:30) Browns letting players go (27:00) NFL ready college QBs (30:00) How trade effects wins (34:00) Unlucky losses (37:00) Bringing in talent (40:00) Dorsey clearing house (44:00) Were the 2017 draft picks mistakes (47:30)What would old front office have down differently (52:00) What the Browns did wrong (55:30) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

What has Belichick been up to? (2:10) Patriots fourth down rate (9:00) Patriots trade back habits (13:30) Are the Patriots wasting draft picks (15:00) Feedback loops (28:30) How has Belichick been so good at exploiting the Feedback Loop (31:00 - 35:00) Patriots lack of comp picks (39:30) Could Belichick be on the hot seat if Mac Jones doesn’t pan out (41:30) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews his final QB rankings, looks at rookie QB data to see when they should start, and find that teams are getting smarter on situational aggressiveness. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

David Giuliani, the Browns director and strategy and research, joins Kevin to talk about how the league is becoming more focused on data, how to best communicate with coaches and other decision-makers, and how recruiting has changed with so much good analysis in the public sphere. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin quantifies the win-win nature of the Julio Jones trade to the Titans, cancels a RB-truther beat reporter, ranks the NFL quarterbacks according to analytical modeling, and challenges the notion that hard work and effort are fundamentally different from other athletic talents. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks about the week's news, ranks the best and worst front office in the NFL, and talks about how we can apply insight from a new book on noise in expert opinions to the NFL. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down the Julio Jones trade situation from a the perspective of a front office in a two-year cap crunch, tracks year-over-year changes in MVP odds that point to Russell Wilson as a big-time value, and introduces a new "Stick to Sports" segment focusing this week on the biases of hundreds of Jeopardy contestants. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin tries to figure out if Urban Meyer is a donkey, cancels Dan Campbell after the head coach fails Analytics 101, and tells you why Micah Parsons is a value for Defensive Rookie of the Year, despite having the shortest odds. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discussed why we overestimate the leverage NFL players have to force trades, why draft reaches and a thing but steals aren't, and the value betting on Najee Harris for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes solo talking through every teams drafts, with a focus on positional value, trading down and why more humility is needed in draft evaluation. Plus, he talks about the dangers of the GM as super scout. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Matthew Freedman of the Action Network parses what's important to pay attention to predicting the NFL draft and which draft props have the highest expected returns. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Benjamin Solak of the Draft Networks joins the pod to talk through his QB evaluation process, what some are missing and why Justin Fields should be the QB2 of the 2021 class. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

JJ Zachariason of numberFire joins the pod to rank the 2021 rookie wide receiver class and explain why he's higher on Rashod Bateman and Terrace Marshall than the consensus. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis returns to talk about the Sam Darnold trade and ramifications for the Panthers and rookie quarterback rankings, plus he goes through his rookie running back rankings in advance of the 2021 NFL draft. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

PFF cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins the pod to wrap up the first week of free agency, highlighting the best and worst moves and what it all means going forward. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis joins the show to talk through a busy couple days in free agency, how the various moves affect the fantasy landscape and general rules for assessing the impact of players switching scenery. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

RJ Ochoa, editor-in-chief of Blogging The Boys, joins the pod to talk the new Dak Prescott deal, why the Cowboys can still compete with a big QB contract and which team he fears most in the NFC East. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic joins the show to discuss on the J.J. Watt acquisition shifts the balance of power in the NFC West, plus his reporting on Russ Wilson's dissatisfaction with the Seahawks and what it means for their future together. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Stephen Holder of The Athletic joins the show to discuss the Carson Wentz trade, whether it was the right move for the Colts, and how Chris Ballard and Frank Reich can build around their new quarterback to make a postseason run. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports and creator of the Reception Perception wide receiver rating system join the show to go through the vaunted 2021 free agency class, which receivers teams should prioritize, and why Curtis Samuel could break out in new surroundings. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

PFF's salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins Kevin to discuss the Chiefs' mistakes in the Super Bowl and look across the landscape of QB-needy teams to figure out who should land where. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Matt Freedman of The Action Network joins Kevin to dissect the Matthew Stafford trade, give his rationale for the Chiefs covering and talk through his favorite prop bets for Super Bowl Sunday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kaelen Jones of the Ringer NFL joins Kevin to go over the bad decisions from Conference Championship Sunday, why Aaron Rodgers' legacy took a huge hit, and if Patrick Mahomes is the Michael Jordan of the NFL. Plus, they explore how much value Matthew Stafford provides teams needing a QB to get over the hump. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Aaron Reiss of The Athletic joins the show to talk Deshaun Watson trade discussions, the Texans' coaching candidates, if Jared Goff is worth top QB money, and previews of the conference championships. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole is joined by Benjamin Solak, Senior CFB Writer from The Draft Network to talk about the loss of Doug Pederson, how it will affect the Eagles and much more. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole is joined by FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’s Josh Hermsmeyer again to talk about the Eagles tanking situation, GM's and head coaches across the NFL and much more in this weeks episode of Unexpected Points. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole is joined by Seth Keysor, Chiefs Analyst for The Athletic to talk about just how good Patrick Mahomes is, the likelihood of super bowl victory and everything else Chiefs. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole is joined by Jason Fitzgerald, Founder of Over the Cap to talk the Jets, player contracts, draft capital and more. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole is joined by Arif Hasan, Beat writer for the Vikings to talk about, Their loss to the bucs and the impact from that on their playoff chances, and more. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole is joined by Sheil Kapadia, senior NFL writer to talk Eagles, Seahawks, Hurts replacing Carson Wentz, what Jeffrey Lurie thinks & much more. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin Cole is joined by Marcel Louis-Jacques to take a deep dive into the Buffalo Bills to discuss the coaching situation and the front office. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

PFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run Director of Analytics Michael Leone to talk DFS analysis. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

PFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run co-founder Evan Silva to draft teams and find their super bowl winner. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Film Analyst & Football Writer Jake Burns joins Kevin to talk film breakdown, the state of the Cleveland Browns, taking a broader look at the QB position and where Baker Mayfield fits in. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Professional bettor Rob Pizzola talks through his process, why the Seahawks and Saints are undervalued and his thoughts on rest of the Week 9 slate. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Ben Baldwin of The Athletic joins Kevin to talk advanced QB stats, Wilson vs Mahomes and why coaching aggressiveness is on the rise. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Michael Lopez, the NFL's Director of Football Data and Analytics joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss his background and how he got into football. Also on this episode, Kevin and Michael discuss how the NFL uses advanced data and analytics in everything from identifying current trends, to how NFL coaches and organizations use data to impact their decisions on and off the field. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Matthew Freedman of FantasyLabs joins PFF"s Kevin Cole to discuss the validity of prop bets in today's market. Kevin and Matthew also discuss NFL props in the 2020 season and outline some situations where prop bets may be favorable and some situations where prop bets may not be nearly as lucrative. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

ESPN NFL Analyst Mina Kimes joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss all the latest NFL news including Dwayne Haskins' benching and Bill O'Brien's ousting in Houston (3:25). Also on this episode, Mina and Kevin hand out some awards a quarter of the way through the 2020 NFL season (24:21). This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe