Thoughts on the Market

After intense negotiations, European leaders have reached a historic coronavirus recovery deal. However, the hardest challenge may lie ahead: How to spend the resources wisely.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although their base case for continued market strength is measured, there is an argument to be made for a bull case forecast.

Growth in money supply is one of the most powerful indicators for rising inflation—and it's currently rising at record levels. How should investors position portfolios?

With the precipitous drop in U.S. GDP and the effects of monetary and fiscal interventions, the rest of third quarter may be a moment for investors to take a breather.

As tensions between the U.S. and China tick higher, investors are weighing the chances of a potential U.S.-China economic decoupling—and what it might look like.

The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and macro trends will likely affect investing fundamentals for years to come. Our experts weigh in on several high-level themes for investors.

Some U.S. stocks have reaped the benefits of a pull forward in demand thanks to effects of the pandemic. But with valuations rich, is a correction now ahead?

In the second of a special two-part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about market response to new data in the race for a vaccine.

In the first of a special two part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about new case projections ahead of fall and flu season.

Local and state governments across the U.S. are eagerly watching whether a new round of stimulus will help them address budget shortfalls. Will Congress deliver?

Understanding the regime of financial repression we are under, and recent changes in it, is key for successful investment. Chief Investment Officer, Mike Wilson explains.

While July contains a number of potentially positive market events, August and September could present a number of potentially problematic ones.

Could a new $1 trillion stimulus deal make its way through the halls of Congress before the summer recess? Why the likelihood of a deal is increasing.

U.S. equities—tech stocks in particular—have powered higher since March lows, but investors are still parsing Q2 earnings, a coming election and rising COVID-19 cases.

The sharp rebound in stock and corporate bond markets has made some question if markets are a bit too upbeat about a speedy recovery. There’s just one problem with this view.

Although the U.S. election is anything but predictable four months away, investors may still want to consider how markets would react to a Democrat sweep.

While excessive inflation can be disruptive, such as in the 1970’s, a deflationary mindset can often be more destructive—and difficult to reverse. What current inflation trends mean for investors.

Although Alexander Hamilton couldn’t have foreseen the current health crisis facing the U.S., his ideas remain relevant—and key to the recovery—more than 200 years later.

Although a worrying trend in new U.S. COIVD-19 cases has some investors understandably bearish, they may be overlooking two key points about earnings and sentiment. 

Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic—both in managing the outbreak and in policy response—has been strong. Here’s what it means for asset classes in the region.

How should investors think about the recovery as the U.S. balances reopening with concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections?

How should investors view a world where there may be room for more than one norm when it comes the balance of power among economies and commerce?

Many investors are still looking at the current recession as an anomaly rather than as the end of a cycle. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains the implications.

While the macro events of the last few months are certainly extreme by the standards of history, the current business cycle may be more normal than is appreciated.

Two common doubts about another round of fiscal stimulus center on the politics of passage and election year strategy. Here’s why Congress could agree on a package.

Equity markets became a bit frothy during early June as optimism over a recovery took hold. So while a correction may be afoot, it isn’t atypical for a young bull market.

The proposed €750 billion European Recovery Fund could represent more than just a recovery from COVID-19. It may also signal a new era of political and economic unity.

Policymakers and voters may care about deficits, but reducing current spending may not be a priority over other issues—and right now that may be a plus for the economy.

Over the last decade, global investors have been lukewarm toward European assets, but three encouraging developments may be set to change that investing narrative.

Depressed 10-year Treasury yields and a strong dollar have tempered the bullish outlook for U.S. equities. But a shift in both suggests a V-shape recovery could be more likely.

Why are markets climbing despite a pandemic and this week’s demonstrations across the U.S.? The answer may lie with how markets view progress.

Large cap biotech analyst Matthew Harrison talks with Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets to discuss the latest timeline for a coronavirus vaccine, hurdles to success and possible market reactions.  

Although market volatility continues to decrease, the volatility of popular momentum strategies is increasing—which suggests a coming rotation to early cycle stocks.

Although the impact of the coronavirus on markets, economies and jobs is truly unprecedented, it doesn’t mean investing precedents don’t still apply.

As U.S. states cope with challenged finances due to the coronavirus, could some look to online gaming to fill budget gaps?

Although the coronavirus recession shares traits with the 2008 financial crisis and other recessions, the rate and sustainability of a recovery could be quite different this cycle.

Will pent-up demand from U.S. consumers help drive a recovery from the coronavirus recession? A special conversation with our Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Economist.

Why would inflation rise since the current recession means an acute shortage of demand for goods and services? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

Congress is weighing another round of fiscal stimulus, possibly by July. But the dynamics of passage in an election year could mean a narrow window to take action.

Current stock market price patterns look surprisingly similar to 2009 and the global financial crisis. The big difference for investors may be the knock-on effect of low interest rates.

As markets have begun to price expectations for negative rates in Britain and the U.S., Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets breaks down the potential impact on consumers, savers and economic growth.

What China’s rebound from COVID-19 can—and can’t—tell us about the path, speed and pitfalls of economic reopening for other countries. Chief China Economist Robin Xing and Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets look at the data, lessons so far, and how the country has had to modify its crisis playbook.

Can the Phase One trade deal détente stand, or will the U.S. and China return to a cycle of escalating tariffs that may impact prospects of a rebound in economic growth? Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy, takes a closer look.

Amid investor speculation about the shape of a recovery, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson urges a standard recession playbook.

How should an investor evaluate the issue of high levels of government debt as nations battle the impact of the coronavirus? A deep dive into the debate.

How can we best coordinate policy to support a timely recovery and what lessons can we learn from the past? Chief Global Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discuss the policy path back from the global economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.

The hole in U.S. state budgets caused by coronavirus-driven revenue shortfalls will likely affect more than just muni bond investors. Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas explains.

As the rally in U.S. equities takes a break, investors may want to position for "early cycle." And that means re-thinking portfolios just as downbeat economic and earnings data arrives.

Why did April’s stock market gains seem oddly disconnected from recent poor economic data? Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets has the answer.

Consensus on the dollar has been bearish for years, only to be proven wrong time after time. But Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach says the mechanics of supply and demand could change that outcome.