Thoughts on the Market

It’s hard to ignore that pockets of excess have developed in financial markets. While past is not always prologue, a look back at the global financial crisis and tech bubble of 1999 provides perspective.

Data on housing supply, demand, affordability and credit availability paint an optimistic picture for U.S. housing. We dive into the outlook for residential credit and agency mortgage markets.

Investors are keeping a worried eye on the pandemic, expensive stock valuations and potentially higher inflation. But even in these areas there may be cause for optimism.

As a Democratic administration takes the reins in the White House and Congress, what policy moves should investors expect?

Investors have become infatuated with the S&P 500, but a rotation to new leadership suggests a look toward stocks that have been off the radar.

As Congress and a new administration ponder new stimulus to navigate the pandemic, what will 2021 look like for FX and government bond markets?

Rising yields and inflation can create anxiety for investors, but the impact depends on why they’re rising. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

As vaccines continue to roll out and the world eyes a return to normal, several key themes are emerging that could shape investment returns.

Does a robust recovery in 2021 spell the end of European Central Bank action? One inconvenient fact may stand in the way: the lackluster rise in inflation.

Although 2021 is likely to be a better year economically, asset markets may not repeat the remarkable run of the past 9 months. So where should investors look?

Why a reflationary backdrop in 2021 could provide a boost to Europe’s cyclical value stocks. A look at the year ahead with Graham Secker, Head of the European and UK Equity Strategy Team.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains why a Democrat sweep of Congress and the White House suggests more reflation and rotation in portfolios.

With wins called for both Senate runoff elections in Georgia, Democrats are poised to control the Presidency and both chambers of Congress. What does this mean for further stimulus?

With Brexit finally a reality, Chief Economic Advisor Reza Moghadam details key elements of the agreement—and the resulting market implications for the EU and UK.

With valuations high, where will markets look to discount next? A look at some key themes developing in this new bull market.

Two events could change the trajectory of fiscal policy in 2021: the need to raise the debt ceiling and the coming expiry of key corporate tax breaks.

On this special edition of the podcast, we discuss the outlook for sustainability and ESG investing in 2021 with some key themes for investors to watch.

Markets often don't need a concrete reason to sell-off or rally. Sometimes it's just exhaustion of a trend that has carried too far.

A look at why investors should be mindful that seemingly small changes in yields can mean big swings in the prices of assets.

Vishy Tirupattur, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks with Andrew Sheets about why corporate credit investors could see better returns in the high yield space in 2021.

Bond investors may want to watch Georgia’s upcoming Senate runoff elections since Democrat wins could mean more fiscal expansion… and a potential fall for bond prices.

Why COVID-19, tech disruption and a shift to a more multipolar world may require a more tactical approach to the region in 2021.

Small caps and cyclicals outperformed significantly this year, particularly after announcement of a vaccine. Which factors could see momentum in 2021?

Although the first COVID-19 vaccine has now begun distribution in the U.S., the country still faces alarming numbers of new cases. We dive into the logistics of mass vaccination.

Many are skeptical of substantial rise in long term interest rates in the coming year, but we think market pressures will push them up more than the consensus and that the Fed will not get in the way. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

Congress is making progress on a COVID fiscal relief package, but previous efforts to strike a deal haven’t borne fruit. Why this time may be different.

Despite a year of high uncertainty, 2020 may end as a strong year for nearly every asset class—which means it may be time to step back and take a breath.

Corporate credit defaults have been relatively low considering the outsized shock of COVID-19. Do muted default rates also mean a muted recovery?

Will a Biden administration mean a reduction of trade barriers between the U.S. and China. The answer for investors: like most questions on trade, it’s a bit nuanced.

China’s consumers could emerge as a key GDP growth driver in 2021, fueled by COVID-19 vaccine availability, a recovery in the job market and pent-up savings by households.

Markets have spent November celebrating upbeat vaccine news and closure on U.S. election uncertainty. After a strong month, are equities headed for another reset?

Emerging market assets are poised to redeem some of their historic underperformance in 2021, but not all assets and indices in the class are equally positioned to take advantage of the cyclical upturn. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

A rare open disagreement between the Fed and the Treasury may have policy implications in the longer term. Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research, explains.

Although the U.S. faces a challenging winter, vaccine availability and momentum could propel the economy to expand an impressive 6% in 2021. The forecast for investors.

As Thanksgiving approaches in the U.S., it’s worth taking a moment to be thankful for potential vaccines, a remarkably resilient economy and the strength of the human spirit.

Global economies are set for next phase of a V-shaped recovery in both developed and emerging markets. Why that could be good news for equities and credit markets.

Washington D.C. has become increasingly interested in tech regulation, but what’s the likelihood in the next two years? And what could it mean for tech stocks?

Although near-term worries about the coronavirus and higher interest rates could challenge company valuations, the 12-month U.S. equities outlook may be just what the doctor ordered.

Confidence in the ability of central bank to suppress market volatility through aggressive policy may be misplaced.

G10 central banks could inject another $2.8 trillion of liquidity next year—over twice the amount in any year prior to this one. How will this impact rates and currencies?

Although improving economic growth and rising inflation could present challenges for bond investors, “re-opening” could bring benefit for municipal bonds.

Although COVID-19 new case rates have been climbing in Europe, the impact of this second wave may not be as severe this time around.

Upbeat news on a coronavirus vaccine and a win for President-elect Biden drive stocks significantly higher. How should investors trade a potentially earlier re-opening?

All eyes are on the U.S. Presidential race as markets also weigh climbing coronavirus cases in the U.S., fiscal stimulus uncertainty and October’s jobs report.

Amidst the uncertainty, three topics should be front of mind for investors: implications of a divided government, the path to fiscal stimulus and tax changes.

Although some volatility may lie ahead, the end of the U.S. election cycle and progress on a potential coronavirus vaccine may bring some optimism to markets.

A look at the 2008 and 2016 U.S. elections suggests that a sweep by either Democrats or Republicans could push stocks and bond yields higher in 2021.

For investors, election night could hinge on moments when markets conclude who has won, not necessarily on when media networks call a winner.

U.S. equity markets have been stuck range bound due to three key concerns, but investors could use that uncertainty to their advantage.

In part two of our special election episode, we look at the policies that could potentially come out of divided party control among the White House, Senate and House, and how they might impact markets.