Thoughts on the Market

Recessions can create long-term scars on labor, investment and the pace of innovation. Is Europe more prepared to lessen COVID-related economic scarring than in past crises?

Concerns about the state of U.S.-China trade relations dominated investor thinking in 2018 and 2019. What’s the path forward for the Biden administration?

The scientific race toward quantum communication is already underway. A look at why the global space economy will be critical to its development.

Gold is sometimes perceived by investors as a good hedge against inflation, however its track record in this capacity is worth a closer look.

We dive into what’s ahead amid competing news headlines on the improving pace of vaccinations and worries over new variants.

Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research and Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy, discuss the impact of stimulus and inflation on fixed income markets.

If you’re not familiar with the concept of a high-pressure economy, now might be a good time to get acquainted. A new forecast for the U.S. economy.

Historically speaking, as goes January, so goes the year. Here’s why higher volatility and dispersion of returns between sectors and stocks may define 2021.

10-yr bond yields could rise by about 0.5% in 2021, but the potentially record amount of government bond issuance may not be the driver.

Two big stories are underway in oil and energy markets: changing supply and demand factors amid COVID-19 vaccinations and the impact of ESG considerations. We dive into both.

Republicans and Democrats are still far apart on the shape of a new fiscal stimulus bill, but that doesn’t mean a pathway to passage isn’t emerging.

What Asia tech trends should investors be watching in the year ahead? Shawn Kim, Head of Asia Technology Research, shares five key themes for 2021.

Although last week's market correction was long overdue (and perhaps not finished), two differences separate the tech bubble of 1999-2000 and the present.

A handful of heavily shorted stocks took markets for a bit of ride this week. Does it say something larger about the future direction of equities markets?

On this episode, we look at the evolution of U.S. consumer spending trends—and parallel investment themes—as COVID-19 vaccines roll out this year.

When it comes to the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus, in the near term it may be the journey that moves markets, not the destination.

It’s hard to ignore that pockets of excess have developed in financial markets. While past is not always prologue, a look back at the global financial crisis and tech bubble of 1999 provides perspective.

Data on housing supply, demand, affordability and credit availability paint an optimistic picture for U.S. housing. We dive into the outlook for residential credit and agency mortgage markets.

Investors are keeping a worried eye on the pandemic, expensive stock valuations and potentially higher inflation. But even in these areas there may be cause for optimism.

As a Democratic administration takes the reins in the White House and Congress, what policy moves should investors expect?

Investors have become infatuated with the S&P 500, but a rotation to new leadership suggests a look toward stocks that have been off the radar.

As Congress and a new administration ponder new stimulus to navigate the pandemic, what will 2021 look like for FX and government bond markets?

Rising yields and inflation can create anxiety for investors, but the impact depends on why they’re rising. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

As vaccines continue to roll out and the world eyes a return to normal, several key themes are emerging that could shape investment returns.

Does a robust recovery in 2021 spell the end of European Central Bank action? One inconvenient fact may stand in the way: the lackluster rise in inflation.

Although 2021 is likely to be a better year economically, asset markets may not repeat the remarkable run of the past 9 months. So where should investors look?

Why a reflationary backdrop in 2021 could provide a boost to Europe’s cyclical value stocks. A look at the year ahead with Graham Secker, Head of the European and UK Equity Strategy Team.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains why a Democrat sweep of Congress and the White House suggests more reflation and rotation in portfolios.

With wins called for both Senate runoff elections in Georgia, Democrats are poised to control the Presidency and both chambers of Congress. What does this mean for further stimulus?

With Brexit finally a reality, Chief Economic Advisor Reza Moghadam details key elements of the agreement—and the resulting market implications for the EU and UK.

With valuations high, where will markets look to discount next? A look at some key themes developing in this new bull market.

Two events could change the trajectory of fiscal policy in 2021: the need to raise the debt ceiling and the coming expiry of key corporate tax breaks.

On this special edition of the podcast, we discuss the outlook for sustainability and ESG investing in 2021 with some key themes for investors to watch.

Markets often don't need a concrete reason to sell-off or rally. Sometimes it's just exhaustion of a trend that has carried too far.

A look at why investors should be mindful that seemingly small changes in yields can mean big swings in the prices of assets.

Vishy Tirupattur, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks with Andrew Sheets about why corporate credit investors could see better returns in the high yield space in 2021.

Bond investors may want to watch Georgia’s upcoming Senate runoff elections since Democrat wins could mean more fiscal expansion… and a potential fall for bond prices.

Why COVID-19, tech disruption and a shift to a more multipolar world may require a more tactical approach to the region in 2021.

Small caps and cyclicals outperformed significantly this year, particularly after announcement of a vaccine. Which factors could see momentum in 2021?

Although the first COVID-19 vaccine has now begun distribution in the U.S., the country still faces alarming numbers of new cases. We dive into the logistics of mass vaccination.

Many are skeptical of substantial rise in long term interest rates in the coming year, but we think market pressures will push them up more than the consensus and that the Fed will not get in the way. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

Congress is making progress on a COVID fiscal relief package, but previous efforts to strike a deal haven’t borne fruit. Why this time may be different.

Despite a year of high uncertainty, 2020 may end as a strong year for nearly every asset class—which means it may be time to step back and take a breath.

Corporate credit defaults have been relatively low considering the outsized shock of COVID-19. Do muted default rates also mean a muted recovery?

Will a Biden administration mean a reduction of trade barriers between the U.S. and China. The answer for investors: like most questions on trade, it’s a bit nuanced.

China’s consumers could emerge as a key GDP growth driver in 2021, fueled by COVID-19 vaccine availability, a recovery in the job market and pent-up savings by households.

Markets have spent November celebrating upbeat vaccine news and closure on U.S. election uncertainty. After a strong month, are equities headed for another reset?

Emerging market assets are poised to redeem some of their historic underperformance in 2021, but not all assets and indices in the class are equally positioned to take advantage of the cyclical upturn. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

A rare open disagreement between the Fed and the Treasury may have policy implications in the longer term. Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research, explains.

Although the U.S. faces a challenging winter, vaccine availability and momentum could propel the economy to expand an impressive 6% in 2021. The forecast for investors.