Thoughts on the Market

The U.S. could be gearing up to approve $4 trillion in new spending over the next 10 years. A look at what that could mean for GDP and Treasuries.

Major U.S. indices may be climbing to all-time highs but broader weakness in individual stock prices could be sending investors a signal.

After performing strongly for much of this year, European stocks have traded sideways over the last month. But a closer look at the data suggests an optimistic outlook.

Although a typical explanation for market strength has been the large amount of cash being pushed into markets from central banks and investors, it’s not the whole story.

Last week, U.S. air travel surpassed 2019 levels. And this recovery in demand may be an important story for both fixed income and equity investors to understand.

Labor-intensive companies that should benefit from the reopening are feeling the pinch from rising wage costs. With growth stocks likely overbought, where do investors go from here?

U.S. home price growth has been on a tear, but will affordability pressures begin weighing on home sales? The answer is a bit complicated.

It's easy to forget just how different the world looked just six months ago. Does the renewed optimism suggest higher returns or just higher expectations?

Until recently, wages have been on a forty year decline, driving new calls for policymaker action. A look at the implications for GDP, inflation and income inequality.

Is U.S. infrastructure already priced into Treasury yields? The answer may lie with whether investors are accurately gauging the true size of the final package.

The robust return of business investment is set to be a key theme for investors. On this episode we examine the bullish outlook for communications equipment and infrastructure.

With the economic recovery in full bloom, companies and investors may now be faced with new questions around higher materials and labor costs.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets continues his conversation with Biotech Equity Analyst Matt Harrison on COVID-19 variants and the future of the health care industry.

Although the darkest days of COVID-19 are hopefully behind us, new variants, vaccine distribution issues and uncertainty about winter still remain key issues.

Since last year, China's economic recovery has been strong… but uneven. After a hiccup in the second quarter, will manufacturing and consumers come to the rescue?

Last week, the Fed rattled markets by laying the groundwork for tapering its asset purchase program. But is this taper talk? Or just talking about talking about tapering?

Although the Fed’s surprise hawkish turn in its latest policy decision caught markets off-guard, the monetary tightening process may actually have begun months ago.

Original release on May 21st, 2021: Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path. But inflation may be a risk to watch.

Although investors often look to the past to assess current market conditions (such as a post-pandemic recovery or rising inflation), one year in particular may serve as an interesting guidepost.

Will negotiations on a U.S. infrastructure deal lead to a bipartisan bill or a Democrats-only bill? The answer matters quite a bit for fixed-income investors.

Over the past few weeks, European equity flows have been at the highest levels in three years. Could a period of consolidation be ahead?

While the outlook for growth and inflation looks strong through next year, both may disappoint lofty investor expectations—and bring consequences for some stock sectors.

This month’s U.S. consumer price inflation data showed a 5% rise versus a year ago, yet markets seemed unconcerned. A look at why markets could be looking past rising inflation readings.

The European Central Bank may soon announce the trial launch of a digital euro. Reza Moghadam, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Advisor, digs into potential risks and innovations.

With tensions not abating, investors should prepare for a world where these major economies are significantly less integrated. Michael Zezas explains.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head of Fixed Income Strategy Vishy Tirupattur cover a key topic on the minds of many investors: where to invest now?Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMO)Principal is returned on a monthly basis over the life of the security. Principal prepayment can significantly affect the monthly income stream and the maturity of any type of MBS, including standard MBS, CMOs and Lottery Bonds. Yields and average lives are estimated based on prepayment assumptions and are subject to change based on actual prepayment of the mortgages in the underlying pools. The level of predictability of an MBS/CMO's average life, and its market price, depends on the type of MBS/CMO class purchased and interest rate movements. In general, as interest rates fall, prepayment speeds are likely to increase, thus shortening the MBS/CMO's average life and likely causing its market price to rise. Conversely, as interest rates rise, prepayment speeds are likely to decrease, thus lengthening average life and likely causing the MBS/CMO's market price to fall. Some MBS/CMOs may have “original issue discount” (OID). OID occurs if the MBS/CMO’s original issue price is below its stated redemption price at maturity, and results in “imputed interest” that must be reported annually for tax purposes, resulting in a tax liability even though interest was not received. Investors are urged to consult their tax advisors for more information. Government agency backing applies only to the face value of the CMO and not to any premium paid.

New macro data on employment and consumer prices are unlikely to settle market uncertainties about inflation and course of the recovery. Mike Wilson explains.

The pillars that have supported extraordinary action by the Federal Reserve are now starting to shift. That means support could be withdrawn. The question is, when?

Commodities prices have seen big moves over the last several months, but could a potentially stronger dollar and the mechanics of supply and demand cool the rally?

Although the Biden administration has been slightly less vocal with respect to China, investors shouldn’t sleep on the possibly of renewed U.S.-China tensions.

Why China’s ambitious blueprint to shape tech standards may have significant impact on the future of tech. Insight from Shawn Kim, Head of Asia Technology Research.

Despite some inflation and labor market risks, the outlook for the rest of the year anticipates strong growth in the U.S. economy. Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner discusses with Andrew Sheets. 

Concern has been rising that potentially higher inflation could make Congress lose its nerve on a multi-trillion dollar "Build Back Better" plan. Here’s our analysis.

Where and how consumers buy their groceries may be forever changed post-pandemic. We deliver some key takeaways on the food retail industry.

Fresh off of last week’s mid-year outlook, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson details investor reaction to some of the more out-of-consensus views.

Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path. But inflation may be a risk to watch.

While robust global growth is a positive for markets, it may also bring higher prices, tighter policy and higher interest rates. A look at some possible twists and turns ahead.

All indications suggest that Congress is serious about passing an infrastructure bill, but here’s why investors may want to consider all possible outcomes.

Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European and UK equity strategy team, shares why Europe may be set to outperform global equity markets this year.

Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why sector and style preferences—along with selective stock picking—may be the key to success for the rest of 2021.

The debate over inflation was center stage this week and although the current environment is a far cry from the 1970s, rising prices could mean complications for both companies and central banks.

Labor shortages and inventory constraints are weighing on U.S. manufacturing and shipping. How severe could the impact be to U.S. GDP and multi-industry revenues?

Differing U.S. infrastructure policy approaches highlight the ongoing difficulties of bipartisanship in Washington. Here’s one possible outcome.

Original release April 16th, 2021: Keeping tabs on how other investors are trading can do more than just satisfy curiosity. It can provide a window into trends and current market debates.

Amid pricey valuations and growing evidence of labor and supply chain issues investors may want to adjust focus as we exit the early stages of the recovery.

With U.S. labor market numbers coming in below expectations, Andrew Sheets assesses how jobs data feeds into market and policy maker thinking about the road to recovery.

Amid declining rates of vaccinations in the U.S, virus mutations and a crisis in India, is herd immunity from COVID-19 still achievable? The latest insights from Biotech equity analyst, Matthew Harrison.

The Supreme Court is expected to deliver a decision soon on this key case for the future of the Affordable Care Act and the 20 million Americans who have acquired coverage under it. The outcome could have significant impacts for investor too.

The red-hot U.S. housing market brings to mind some unhappy memories of the 2006 bubble, but there are some key differences this time around.

The reality of reopening is anything but cut and dry. And how the market is pricing, or failing to price, nuances should continue to be a key theme.