Thoughts on the Market

As Thanksgiving approaches in the U.S., it’s worth taking a moment to be thankful for potential vaccines, a remarkably resilient economy and the strength of the human spirit.

Global economies are set for next phase of a V-shaped recovery in both developed and emerging markets. Why that could be good news for equities and credit markets.

Washington D.C. has become increasingly interested in tech regulation, but what’s the likelihood in the next two years? And what could it mean for tech stocks?

Although near-term worries about the coronavirus and higher interest rates could challenge company valuations, the 12-month U.S. equities outlook may be just what the doctor ordered.

Confidence in the ability of central bank to suppress market volatility through aggressive policy may be misplaced.

G10 central banks could inject another $2.8 trillion of liquidity next year—over twice the amount in any year prior to this one. How will this impact rates and currencies?

Although improving economic growth and rising inflation could present challenges for bond investors, “re-opening” could bring benefit for municipal bonds.

Although COVID-19 new case rates have been climbing in Europe, the impact of this second wave may not be as severe this time around.

Upbeat news on a coronavirus vaccine and a win for President-elect Biden drive stocks significantly higher. How should investors trade a potentially earlier re-opening?

All eyes are on the U.S. Presidential race as markets also weigh climbing coronavirus cases in the U.S., fiscal stimulus uncertainty and October’s jobs report.

Amidst the uncertainty, three topics should be front of mind for investors: implications of a divided government, the path to fiscal stimulus and tax changes.

Although some volatility may lie ahead, the end of the U.S. election cycle and progress on a potential coronavirus vaccine may bring some optimism to markets.

A look at the 2008 and 2016 U.S. elections suggests that a sweep by either Democrats or Republicans could push stocks and bond yields higher in 2021.

For investors, election night could hinge on moments when markets conclude who has won, not necessarily on when media networks call a winner.

U.S. equity markets have been stuck range bound due to three key concerns, but investors could use that uncertainty to their advantage.

In part two of our special election episode, we look at the policies that could potentially come out of divided party control among the White House, Senate and House, and how they might impact markets.

What is the road ahead for global markets between now and inauguration day? The answer may fall into two categories: straightaways and detours. Part one of a special two-part episode.

The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are now at multi-month highs, prompting some investors to ask “What’s going on?” Analysis from Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas.

Uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, the U.S. election and the pandemic could mean the correction isn’t over. However, one thematic opportunity could present itself.

Although many investors view markets as a highly efficient prognostic machine, the surprises of the 2016 election may have created more hesitancy to guess election outcomes.

On this Special Episode, Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner talks with U.S. Equity Strategist Adam Virgadamo about the path to recovery and mispriced “reopening stocks.”

Although it’s possible that the results of the 2020 U.S. election won’t come on Nov. 3rd, there is some fresh evidence that it may unfold more smoothly than pundits predict.

Although there is uncertainty over new stimulus, a potential coronavirus second wave and the upcoming election, investors can use market volatility to their advantage.

Do tech-driven energy efficiencies—coupled with a shift in environmental attitudes—mean oil demand will fail to recover to pre-COVID levels?

With mixed signals coming from the White House and Congress, should investors be concerned about no further stimulus? Why there may still be good news.

With a U.S. fiscal stimulus deal looking more likely, the risk of long-term interest rates moving higher has now increased—a shift that could benefit recovery stocks.

For markets, a vaccine may be the most significant sign the world may return to a more normal future. But what are markets pricing in currently?

COVID-19 vaccines are navigating through the last stage of clinical trials, but hurdles still lie ahead for efficacy, distribution and FDA approval.

How will markets react if final U.S. election results take days or weeks? Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Michael Zezas shares advice for investors.

The recent correction may have been inevitable given rising risks for fiscal stimulus, a potential COVID-19 second wave and the upcoming election. But a resolution to these hurdles may also be possible longer-term.

Despite a needed correction in recent weeks, a suite of significant risks still hangs over U.S. markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

As hopes for an additional stimulus package wane in the run-up to the U.S. elections, some of the less likely paths to a deal may provide a way out of the current correction. Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research, explains.

Action by Congress and the Fed, and its absence, has paved the way for the recent downturn in equities, putting markets back on a more sustainable footing. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains.

This week, the Fed announced a new framework that could keep interest rates unusually low. So why did markets collectively yawn at the announcement?

On this special edition of the podcast, Jessica Alsford, Head of the Global Sustainability Research Team talks with Michael Zezas about the important role ETFs are playing for ESG investing.

Why gridlock on the next U.S stimulus package—combined with election year uncertainty—suggests there could be more downside in September and October.

A downward adjustment in some high-flying U.S. tech stocks has put investors on edge this month, but an impasse on fiscal stimulus negotiations may be the real issue to watch.

As COVID-19 vaccine development continues in phase three studies, the logistics of FDA approvals, production and the complex hurdles of distribution are taking shape.

Could a possible delay in U.S. election night results mean volatility as markets price various outcomes for policies that impact sectors?

Although the current market correction is not wholly surprising given the outsized rally in August, what was the ultimate trigger… and what's next?

How to explain the steady, almost mechanical rise in markets despite often weak economic data? It may come down to expectations and trend lines.

Although consensus sees long-term interest rates staying low, could a potential $2 trillion fiscal stimulus mean rates will rise more (and faster) than markets currently expect?

Just how big would a state and local U.S. stimulus package need to be to support a V-shaped recovery and avoid credit downgrades?

China’s recovery could be progressing better than markets expected as consumers spend more money onshore and the nation’s export engine gains market share.

Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says although we’re likely at the beginning of a years-long cyclical bull market, one signal could be telling us that a correction is always possible.

Markets are pricing years of lower inflation due to fallout from the pandemic. But a simple barbershop visit illustrates why that view is worth examining.

Although U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden has proposed an increase in corporate taxes, how likely are they to pass in their current form?

Although marketplace consensus believes that long-term interest rates are set to stay lower for longer, five factors suggest higher long-term rates could be ahead.

Markets have been surprisingly strong of late given the delay in further stimulus in the U.S.. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discusses the potential causes and why a note of caution may be in order for investors.

Is it the end of the road for more economic aid from Congress this year? Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research breaks down the impasse and outcomes.