Thoughts on the Market

How will markets react if final U.S. election results take days or weeks? Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Michael Zezas shares advice for investors.

The recent correction may have been inevitable given rising risks for fiscal stimulus, a potential COVID-19 second wave and the upcoming election. But a resolution to these hurdles may also be possible longer-term.

Despite a needed correction in recent weeks, a suite of significant risks still hangs over U.S. markets. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

As hopes for an additional stimulus package wane in the run-up to the U.S. elections, some of the less likely paths to a deal may provide a way out of the current correction. Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research, explains.

Action by Congress and the Fed, and its absence, has paved the way for the recent downturn in equities, putting markets back on a more sustainable footing. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains.

This week, the Fed announced a new framework that could keep interest rates unusually low. So why did markets collectively yawn at the announcement?

On this special edition of the podcast, Jessica Alsford, Head of the Global Sustainability Research Team talks with Michael Zezas about the important role ETFs are playing for ESG investing.

Why gridlock on the next U.S stimulus package—combined with election year uncertainty—suggests there could be more downside in September and October.

A downward adjustment in some high-flying U.S. tech stocks has put investors on edge this month, but an impasse on fiscal stimulus negotiations may be the real issue to watch.

As COVID-19 vaccine development continues in phase three studies, the logistics of FDA approvals, production and the complex hurdles of distribution are taking shape.

Could a possible delay in U.S. election night results mean volatility as markets price various outcomes for policies that impact sectors?

Although the current market correction is not wholly surprising given the outsized rally in August, what was the ultimate trigger… and what's next?

How to explain the steady, almost mechanical rise in markets despite often weak economic data? It may come down to expectations and trend lines.

Although consensus sees long-term interest rates staying low, could a potential $2 trillion fiscal stimulus mean rates will rise more (and faster) than markets currently expect?

Just how big would a state and local U.S. stimulus package need to be to support a V-shaped recovery and avoid credit downgrades?

China’s recovery could be progressing better than markets expected as consumers spend more money onshore and the nation’s export engine gains market share.

Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says although we’re likely at the beginning of a years-long cyclical bull market, one signal could be telling us that a correction is always possible.

Markets are pricing years of lower inflation due to fallout from the pandemic. But a simple barbershop visit illustrates why that view is worth examining.

Although U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden has proposed an increase in corporate taxes, how likely are they to pass in their current form?

Although marketplace consensus believes that long-term interest rates are set to stay lower for longer, five factors suggest higher long-term rates could be ahead.

Markets have been surprisingly strong of late given the delay in further stimulus in the U.S.. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets discusses the potential causes and why a note of caution may be in order for investors.

Is it the end of the road for more economic aid from Congress this year? Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research breaks down the impasse and outcomes.

After intense negotiations, European leaders have reached a historic coronavirus recovery deal. However, the hardest challenge may lie ahead: How to spend the resources wisely.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says although their base case for continued market strength is measured, there is an argument to be made for a bull case forecast.

Growth in money supply is one of the most powerful indicators for rising inflation—and it's currently rising at record levels. How should investors position portfolios?

With the precipitous drop in U.S. GDP and the effects of monetary and fiscal interventions, the rest of third quarter may be a moment for investors to take a breather.

As tensions between the U.S. and China tick higher, investors are weighing the chances of a potential U.S.-China economic decoupling—and what it might look like.

The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and macro trends will likely affect investing fundamentals for years to come. Our experts weigh in on several high-level themes for investors.

Some U.S. stocks have reaped the benefits of a pull forward in demand thanks to effects of the pandemic. But with valuations rich, is a correction now ahead?

In the second of a special two-part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about market response to new data in the race for a vaccine.

In the first of a special two part episode, we talk with biotech equity analyst Matthew Harrison about new case projections ahead of fall and flu season.

Local and state governments across the U.S. are eagerly watching whether a new round of stimulus will help them address budget shortfalls. Will Congress deliver?

Understanding the regime of financial repression we are under, and recent changes in it, is key for successful investment. Chief Investment Officer, Mike Wilson explains.

While July contains a number of potentially positive market events, August and September could present a number of potentially problematic ones.

Could a new $1 trillion stimulus deal make its way through the halls of Congress before the summer recess? Why the likelihood of a deal is increasing.

U.S. equities—tech stocks in particular—have powered higher since March lows, but investors are still parsing Q2 earnings, a coming election and rising COVID-19 cases.

The sharp rebound in stock and corporate bond markets has made some question if markets are a bit too upbeat about a speedy recovery. There’s just one problem with this view.

Although the U.S. election is anything but predictable four months away, investors may still want to consider how markets would react to a Democrat sweep.

While excessive inflation can be disruptive, such as in the 1970’s, a deflationary mindset can often be more destructive—and difficult to reverse. What current inflation trends mean for investors.

Although Alexander Hamilton couldn’t have foreseen the current health crisis facing the U.S., his ideas remain relevant—and key to the recovery—more than 200 years later.

Although a worrying trend in new U.S. COIVD-19 cases has some investors understandably bearish, they may be overlooking two key points about earnings and sentiment. 

Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic—both in managing the outbreak and in policy response—has been strong. Here’s what it means for asset classes in the region.

How should investors think about the recovery as the U.S. balances reopening with concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections?

How should investors view a world where there may be room for more than one norm when it comes the balance of power among economies and commerce?

Many investors are still looking at the current recession as an anomaly rather than as the end of a cycle. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains the implications.

While the macro events of the last few months are certainly extreme by the standards of history, the current business cycle may be more normal than is appreciated.

Two common doubts about another round of fiscal stimulus center on the politics of passage and election year strategy. Here’s why Congress could agree on a package.

Equity markets became a bit frothy during early June as optimism over a recovery took hold. So while a correction may be afoot, it isn’t atypical for a young bull market.

The proposed €750 billion European Recovery Fund could represent more than just a recovery from COVID-19. It may also signal a new era of political and economic unity.

Policymakers and voters may care about deficits, but reducing current spending may not be a priority over other issues—and right now that may be a plus for the economy.