Thoughts on the Market

Across numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this mean for equities, credit and government bonds?

Investor interest in thematic equity products such as ETFs has rapidly surged, particularly among tech themes. Why the momentum may only grow.

On this episode, we examine how China’s regulatory reset on fintech, big tech, cryptocurrency and carbon emissions could affect China equities and business models.

Although the pandemic put U.S.-China trade tensions on a low simmer, several catalysts could now turn up the heat. Three takeaways for investors.

July’s strong labor market report suggests the Fed may be behind the curve on monetary policy— and markets could soon start to notice.

The Delta variant, slow progress on U.S. infrastructure and some recent disappointing data have markets worried about the economic recovery. Here’s another view.

Are current oil prices sustainable? Although oil prices have rallied sharply over the last year, the performance of oil equities has been modest by comparison.

The U.S. infrastructure bill is just the start of a larger fiscal process through year-end that may bring above average growth and higher U.S. Treasury yields.

Falling Treasury yields have investors wondering whether prices will keep rising. But some insight could be gained from the trajectory of U.S. auto prices.

As a strong earnings season wraps up, pressure is mounting on the Fed to reduce its current level of emergency monetary support. What will this mean for stocks?

On this episode we continue our close look at the COVID-19 Delta variant including boosters, the outlook for fall/winter and the impact on markets.

On this episode, we take a closer look at the Delta variant including infectiousness, possibilities of mutation, and whether we’re stuck with COVID-19 long-term.

Investors have been closely watching headlines on the bipartisan infrastructure plan, but for markets, what may matter most is the broader fiscal policy plan.

U.S. equity markets have transitioned through three of four typical changes associated with a mid-cycle transition. But the next, final phase—Fed tightening—may have the most impact.

How can governments worldwide manage the historically high debt incurred in response to the COVID-19 crisis? The answer may be a bit counterintuitive.

The Congressional debate over raising the “debt ceiling”—the total amount of money that the U.S. is authorized to borrow—has begun again. Should investors be concerned?

Consumer spending has an outsized impact on U.S. economic growth, representing 70% of the economy. We take a deep dive into savings, spending and the labor market.

Original Release on June 24th, 2021: Although the darkest days of COVID-19 are hopefully behind us, new variants, vaccine distribution issues and uncertainty about winter still remain key issues.

A popular read on yesterday’s drop in stocks and bond yields is concern over the COVID Delta variant and global growth. But that analysis may only be part of the story.

On this special edition of the podcast, we examine the path ahead for fixed income and the dollar amid increased concern over the COVID-19 Delta variant and economic growth.

Over the last 18 months, individual investor activity into single stocks has surged. But the bigger story may be the record amount of investment in ETFs.

As the year began, there was a high degree of optimism that 2021 could be a great year for Asia & EM equities. But instead, Asian equities have lagged the U.S. and Europe. So what went wrong?

The U.S. could be gearing up to approve $4 trillion in new spending over the next 10 years. A look at what that could mean for GDP and Treasuries.

Major U.S. indices may be climbing to all-time highs but broader weakness in individual stock prices could be sending investors a signal.

After performing strongly for much of this year, European stocks have traded sideways over the last month. But a closer look at the data suggests an optimistic outlook.

Although a typical explanation for market strength has been the large amount of cash being pushed into markets from central banks and investors, it’s not the whole story.

Last week, U.S. air travel surpassed 2019 levels. And this recovery in demand may be an important story for both fixed income and equity investors to understand.

Labor-intensive companies that should benefit from the reopening are feeling the pinch from rising wage costs. With growth stocks likely overbought, where do investors go from here?

U.S. home price growth has been on a tear, but will affordability pressures begin weighing on home sales? The answer is a bit complicated.

It's easy to forget just how different the world looked just six months ago. Does the renewed optimism suggest higher returns or just higher expectations?

Until recently, wages have been on a forty year decline, driving new calls for policymaker action. A look at the implications for GDP, inflation and income inequality.

Is U.S. infrastructure already priced into Treasury yields? The answer may lie with whether investors are accurately gauging the true size of the final package.

The robust return of business investment is set to be a key theme for investors. On this episode we examine the bullish outlook for communications equipment and infrastructure.

With the economic recovery in full bloom, companies and investors may now be faced with new questions around higher materials and labor costs.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets continues his conversation with Biotech Equity Analyst Matt Harrison on COVID-19 variants and the future of the health care industry.

Although the darkest days of COVID-19 are hopefully behind us, new variants, vaccine distribution issues and uncertainty about winter still remain key issues.

Since last year, China's economic recovery has been strong… but uneven. After a hiccup in the second quarter, will manufacturing and consumers come to the rescue?

Last week, the Fed rattled markets by laying the groundwork for tapering its asset purchase program. But is this taper talk? Or just talking about talking about tapering?

Although the Fed’s surprise hawkish turn in its latest policy decision caught markets off-guard, the monetary tightening process may actually have begun months ago.

Original release on May 21st, 2021: Consumer spending should drive strong business investment in the months ahead, driving global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path. But inflation may be a risk to watch.

Although investors often look to the past to assess current market conditions (such as a post-pandemic recovery or rising inflation), one year in particular may serve as an interesting guidepost.

Will negotiations on a U.S. infrastructure deal lead to a bipartisan bill or a Democrats-only bill? The answer matters quite a bit for fixed-income investors.

Over the past few weeks, European equity flows have been at the highest levels in three years. Could a period of consolidation be ahead?

While the outlook for growth and inflation looks strong through next year, both may disappoint lofty investor expectations—and bring consequences for some stock sectors.

This month’s U.S. consumer price inflation data showed a 5% rise versus a year ago, yet markets seemed unconcerned. A look at why markets could be looking past rising inflation readings.

The European Central Bank may soon announce the trial launch of a digital euro. Reza Moghadam, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Advisor, digs into potential risks and innovations.

With tensions not abating, investors should prepare for a world where these major economies are significantly less integrated. Michael Zezas explains.

Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Head of Fixed Income Strategy Vishy Tirupattur cover a key topic on the minds of many investors: where to invest now?Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMO)Principal is returned on a monthly basis over the life of the security. Principal prepayment can significantly affect the monthly income stream and the maturity of any type of MBS, including standard MBS, CMOs and Lottery Bonds. Yields and average lives are estimated based on prepayment assumptions and are subject to change based on actual prepayment of the mortgages in the underlying pools. The level of predictability of an MBS/CMO's average life, and its market price, depends on the type of MBS/CMO class purchased and interest rate movements. In general, as interest rates fall, prepayment speeds are likely to increase, thus shortening the MBS/CMO's average life and likely causing its market price to rise. Conversely, as interest rates rise, prepayment speeds are likely to decrease, thus lengthening average life and likely causing the MBS/CMO's market price to fall. Some MBS/CMOs may have “original issue discount” (OID). OID occurs if the MBS/CMO’s original issue price is below its stated redemption price at maturity, and results in “imputed interest” that must be reported annually for tax purposes, resulting in a tax liability even though interest was not received. Investors are urged to consult their tax advisors for more information. Government agency backing applies only to the face value of the CMO and not to any premium paid.

New macro data on employment and consumer prices are unlikely to settle market uncertainties about inflation and course of the recovery. Mike Wilson explains.

The pillars that have supported extraordinary action by the Federal Reserve are now starting to shift. That means support could be withdrawn. The question is, when?