The Other Hand
535 episodes — Page 7 of 11
The world becomes ever more dangerous. Joining dots from Ukraine to Azerbaijan to Israel to Taiwan: how bad will it get?
Ireland's export data weakens again. It's beginning to look like a trend. And maybe the world economy is weaker than we thought.The Health Service needs more money. How many countries can say that? It's as true in Ireland as elsewhere. But the suspicion grows that you could give the HSE any amount of money and it would still have a budget hole of €2 billion at the end of the year. Any year. Somebody needs to find teh cure for fiscal incontinence.The world looks ever more dangerous by the day. Plenty of gloomy analyses are appearing that look back on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the start of something akin to the events that began with assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in June 1914. At the very least, lots of seemingly disparate events are observed and then linked in ways that make for alarmist headlines. The war in Ukraine, Iran’s threatened war against Israel, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia might be about to invade Kosovo, the US placing two carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean and Chinese threats against Taiwan: all of these things are, for some observers, beginning to look like a pattern. The thread - if there is one - that links most or all of these conflicts, actual or threatened, is growing American dysfunction and, in particular, isolationism of the US. One interpretation of post WW2 history is that the world went through an unusually peaceful period mostly because of ‘Pax Americana’: the US as the global policeman. Commentators such as Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins, prominent blogger (‘Substacker’ to be precise) Noah Smith and historian Niall Ferguson have all penned dark and pessimistic pieces focussing on different aspects of the threats facing the world. All agree that those threats have not been as great for a very long time. Mostly because ‘Pax Americana’ is over.History does teach us that what happens next is unlikely to have been predicted by anybody. But the more apocalyptic analysts see two obvious threats. First, the Israeli armed forces are overwhelmed fighting a three front war in Gaza, the West Bank and along the Lebanese border. Somewhere - perhaps everywhere - in that fight will be Iran. If the US gets involved, so, perhaps, will Iran’s new ally, Russia. As an intermediate possible step, Qatar could disrupt global supplies of natural gas in the same way OPEC did to oil in the 1970s - that would make last year’s spike in energy prices look like a small-scale rehearsal. The other big foreseeable threat is Taiwan. China has said, explicitly, that it will take back the Island. If it intends to do so over the next decade or so, now would seem to be the most opportune time. ‘Joining the dots’ is the favourite activity of the armchair analyst. The pictures that emerge from these exercises can be truly alarming. They could, of course, be completely wrong. But a lot of people are drawing very similar pictures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Luck, opposition moments of brilliance and a couple of Irish errors: these are the tiny margins
Why Ireland lost in a game of the finest of margins - really.On the numbers, Ireland and New Zealand could replay that game, deploy the same players and tactics, and Ireland would win 9 games out of 10. This was the tenth game.What about Ireland going forward - looking good, even in terms of replacing Jonny Sexton. Tight Head Prop, a massively under-rated position, could be more problematic.How is it possible that England are the only undefeated side in the World Cup? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Budget 2024, US & Irish inflation and the Middle East
Everything really is connected to everything else Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Israel & war: more storm clouds. ESRI adds economic reasons for caution. US jobs market miracle?
We really are doing economic policy all wrong Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Ireland demolish Scotland: Nathan Johns of the Irish Times discusses the weekend's Rugby World Cup
They really deserved to win this one Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Fairness, inequality and redistribution. Many of us think we live in a 'winner takes all world'. Yet the clamour for redistribution remains muted.
Professor Charlotte Cavaillé is a global expert on inequality and redistribution. Her extensive research program has reframed the discussion such that our perceptions of fairness are front and centre. With some surprising results.In many countries, particularly the US and UK, inequality has risen. Economists might argue that self-interested electorates, which contain increasing numbers of people suffering form inequality, might start calling for more redistribution. But the evidence says not. Moreover, in France, where inequality has not risen in US-style fashion, people are convinced they live in ever worse economic conditions.The more we think about this, the more complicated things become. Professor Cavaillé urges us, persuasively, to think about the issues in new ways.If we focus on who we are redistributing from, we might get a very different discussion compared to when we focus on who we are redistributing to. Fat cats in the 1% or benefit scrounging freeloaders?The immigration debate is salient everywhere. Breaking down - understanding our societal norms about fairness & proportionality - help to explain why, Danish-style, allowing migrants to work - to earn - has more popular appeal than giving them benefits. It might even make sense - countries that restrict or forbid migrant employment take note.We discuss all this and more with Charlotte as she takes us through her brilliant new book 'Fair Enough" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Does the world have brain damage? Neuroscientist Prof. Shane O'Mara discussions right brain problems and is a lot more optimistic than Chris & Jim
Do we have a right brain problem? Author and journalist Matthew Syed said so in a recent fascinating Sunday Times column.Professor of Neuroscience at Trinity College Dublin, Shane O'Mara, says no.So why is our political discourse, pretty much everywhere, so polarised, context & nuance free, and just so nasty?Why, when we know, with as much certainty as we can muster, that the world is a very uncertain place, is everyone so certain?Shane is tempted to say that the world was ever thus and Chris & Jim should stay off Twitter.Point taken, but the authoritarian, conspiracy loving nut jobs do seem to have the upper hand - or at least are making more noise.In this podcast, AI is confused with AIB. That is a step too far. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Ireland: Brexit's biggest beneficiary? Farage close to complete takeover of UK Tories. EU house prices show chunky falls.
Are equities heading for an October event? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The gathering storm: should the budget be cancelled? Oil prices and bond yields going up, again, are economy killers.
Batten down the hatches? Fat chance Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
More Irish people than ever: a very good thing. J P Morgan boss muses about 7% interest rates: a vey bad thing
Time for rocket scientists to stop blowing up the (economic) world Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Did Ireland deserve to beat S. Africa? Nathan Johns of the Irish Times takes us through the vital stats
In an Irish Times Article that has gone globally viral, journalist Nathan Johns, @nathanrjohns, analysed data that suggests S. Africa might have won that match. Perhaps even deserved to win that match.But they lost.Why?Numbers are not quite everything it seems. Nearly everything, but not everything.Chris looks forward to a Wales victory in the semi final. Maybe even against Ireland. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Big moves in financial markets as the 'higher for longer' interest rate narrative takes hold. We call BS.
A big week in financial markets: bond yields are up to multi-year highs. All other asset prices have been affected. Equities are down, exchange rates are all over the place.The new narrative is interest rates 'higher for longer'. Wethink this could be yet another narrative fallacy.Interest rates were left unchanged in the US and UK following the ECB's latest dopey hike.Economies are weakening under the strain of past rate hikes. Particularly the dopey ones.Is Euroscepticism, pre-Brexit style, going to make a comeback?Support for Ukraine - is it fracturing?Saying goodbye to the Welsh economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The Irish Economy: still growing but slowing. Finance Minister for a day. UK big inflation surprise
Latest data and forecasts for the Irish economy suggest 'growing but slowing'Unemployment is forecast to stay very low - essentially an economy at full employmentUnemployment in many countries is forecast to stay low, despite low or no growth. That's because labour markets have been puzzlingly tight for years. Are we just extrapolating the recent past and forgetting that unemployment could rise?Bond markets expect rate cuts next year. They won't get thise without a rise in unemployment, which few, if any, forecasters expect.Somebody is getting this wrong.If I was Finance Minister for a day!Surely realpolitik dictates less prudence now in exchange for more prudence post-election? The Central Bank & IFAC both call for prudence NOW, arguably handing the election to Sinn Fein - who will be anything but prudent with the public finances. A big UK inflation surpriseNot such a big surprise: Sunak reveals himself to be a grubby climate change denier. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Rugby World Cup - latest episode with Nathan Johns of the Irish Times.
Lots of great rugby over the last two weekends.Uruguay scare France by playing running rugby. Really entertaining stuff. One poor clearance kick undid the Uruguayans. The kicking game.Tonga show Ireland up at the breakdown. Another problem for Paul O'ConnellEngland, so boring - but so what?A tight point spread for Ireland S. Africa? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oil heading towards $100 may mean the good news on inflation is over. With more bad news on interest rates to come.
US inflation rose again last month: is the good news over? The Saudi-Russian alliance seems determined to get oil prices up to $100. That could mean €2+ for a litre or petrol and/or diesel. Interest rates look to be in 'higher for longer mode'. There is nothing good that flows from $100 oil - other than an economic slowdown/recession that will cut fossil fuel consumption & help, a little, the environment.Putin is building a new friendship circle, including fellow megalomaniacs from N. Korea and mad mullahs from Tehran.The advice to the next government everywhere, including UK, US and Ireland, is the same: build more houses. In the UK and Ireland that's gonna need big reforms of the planning system. Comedians - and serious journalists - are starting to tell jokes about Sunak's chances of winning the next general election. Are Ross O'Carroll-Kelly's D4 brothers-in-arms helping to shutter a 112 year-old cricket club? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
A radical suggestion for budget 2024: cut taxes for the under 35s. Another ECB mistake in the offing? Dynamic beer pricing has arrived.
Euro area economy is weak Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Is this the beginning of the end of the (corporation) tax boom? The most intensely political budget looms
Latest Irish government tax and spending figures have prompted lots of questions. Not least: is the corporation tax bonza over?Economists and budgetary watchdogs are only doing their job when they warn about spending one-off, or windfall, tax receipts. But the upcoming budget will be as big a political event as it will be about economics. Arguably the most intensely political budget in a very long time. The politics all point towards giving money away. Maybe there are clever ways of doing that.Jim thinks Chris might have a bit of an agenda when it comes to the UK. Chris claims to just have data. Either way, major bits of the country's infrastructure are at risk of falling down. Quite sad really. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The Rugby World Cup Begins! A belter of an opening match followed by almost two months of the ultimate rugby festival.
The Other Hand's occasional coverage of the Rugby World Cup starts here!An ongoing conversation with Irish Times journalist Nathan Johns. Enjoy some proper rugby analysis, a little rugby banter, free of cliche and jargon, from a journalist who really does know his stuff.In today's episode we set the scene by asking whether the RWC can be as unifying a force for France as was the 1998 soccer world cup.The opening match couldn't have been better scripted: between the first and second favourites. Why are the two sides of the draw so lopsided? Could Ireland fail to get out of 'the group of death'The groups were decided years ago, to ease the travel plans of the world's prawn sandwich brigade rugby officials and their friends and familiesWill France, 'the most Unfrench team' prevail?How will Ireland do? They cant be bullied any more but lack a little depth in the event of key injuriesEngland don't even know what their team is (really)The Welsh had better watch out for FijiNew Zealand really do have weaknesses, particularly up front Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
A neuroscientist and an economist walk into a bar
Our latest podcast is up, a conversation between Chris and Shane O’Mara, Professor of Brain Science at Trinity.Shane, a prolific best-selling author, has a brilliant new book out - Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds And a terrific Substack: BrainPizza, well worth a sign-up.In today's pod:Who is coming for Ted Cruz's beer and why is he so angry about it?Why do we get so bent of shape by so little?Why did Jimmy Page & Robert Plant's post Led Zeppelin careers diverge so much?Reaching the top of the mountain and finding nothing there.Hyperbolic discounting: if we don't do some long-term thinking there won't be a long term.Techocrats Vs visionariesWe all want to be heard but why should anyone listenBeing poor really sucks - and is really bad for your brainWind farms are beautiful.A note of optimism Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Inflation falls - then rises because of official policy measures to boost prices. Followed by budget 2024 measures to mitigate the cost of living crisis
You couldn't make it up Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Abolish planning laws to cure housing crisis? Lessons from bombing London. Monetary dinosaurs spotted in Germany.
The battle to be Trump's VP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Unemployment cured, Irish style. EU slips into recession? The UK is not London.
Brace for another ECB policy mistake Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
China: it's getting serious. What does it mean for the world?
Rental crisis goes global. So does the bond crisis. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Bond market crash - why this is so important. China crisis? Our ignorance about inflation.
Reminder: it's August Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
More dystopian fiction from the ITimes. UK inflation horrors. Italian anti-business right-wing politics.
Governments can't solve every problem. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Truthiness, populism and stochastic parrots. Think you know how your brain works? Neuroscientist Professor Shane O'Mara takes us through the exciting and fascinating developments in how we think.
Can we change our minds? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Why not spend the €65bn on social housing? Should we rescue people from their financial folly? Biden builds on Trump's policies.
Did WW3 just start? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Ireland and the BBC. Banks deserve everything they are about to get. China deflates?
Slowdown drums beat louder Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mortgage rates and savings rates: banks go for the better PR. Are their mega profits sustainable?
Will America survive a second Trump Presidency? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Turbulence over Dublin Airport. EV sales take off but might lose power.
Landings soft and hard Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
A much bigger story than RTE goes unreported. Lots of economic data confuses more than it clarifies
If bankers want market salaries there needs to be more banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Big week for interest rates, but is the peak getting further away with recent rises in commodity prices? Global economic data is painting a very mixed picture.
Where will Wagner go next? Poland? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Is Putin trying to get your mortgage rate up? Food prices under threat again. China is caught between a rock and a hard place.
Voters don't like paying for climate mitigation. Make the alternatives cheaper! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Ireland booms or just avoids recession? Falling exports - technical or threat to growth and public finances?
IS the UK a developing economy? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Has Ryan Tubridy done the nation a great service? If inflation is coming back down all on its own, why raise interest rates? The UK is literally getting sick.
Why is UK inflation orders of magnitude more than anywhere else? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
If central bankers get their way, your house price could fall - perhaps by a lot. The many mysteries of modern economics.
Confused? You will be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Ireland's embarrassment of riches? Tax revenues explode in the first half of 2023. What to do with them?
Make Irish yoghurt great again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
RTE, celebrity pay and hopeless governance. Bidenomics: some surprising consequences. The usual suspects tell McGrath not to cut taxes. He will ignore them. .
Zero GDP growth and a booming economy? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Interest rates start to bite. House prices, obviously, but also in some unexpected places. UK water companies just one example - plenty of others.
Does the IMF really think corporate profits are responsible for inflation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Seven years on from the Brexit referendum. Still as controversial as ever, despite the evidence saying there is no controversy. Dealing with complexity in a world that excludes experts.
In conversation with top British Brexit expert, Professor Chris Grey Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The UK: in a deep hole and still digging. The riskiness of the mortgage. Brexit: Good for Ireland?
'Make Ireland Great Again'. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Fretting over Irish inflation completely misses the point of the Euro? Things could be worse: UK has much lower trend growth, much higher core inflation - stagflation nation.
UK interest rate rises risk house price collapse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Chat GPT skills now needed for entry level finance jobs. Extraordinary times for a few US companies. Gas prices spike - hopefully only for a short while
Another dot.com bubble? In conversation with Gary McCarthy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Ukraine floods, Putin waits for Trump. Broken windows policing - why we are paying the price for Obama's inaction.
Strange economic data and broken correlations. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Is the housing crisis solvable? How much is it to do with a population that has nearly doubled? Will S. County Dublin have to be told to add an extra three stories?
Lessons from Sydney's suburbs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Boom or recession: data says both! What's going on?
Some energy prices now back to historic norms Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Don't poke Twitter! Saying nice things about Ireland is not allowed! Biden runs rings around the Republicans over the debt ceiling. Lower inflation brings interest rate hope to Europe.
Revolutions can be revolting Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Germany in recession, US growth up, even the UK is doing better. Working from home - what happens if there is a recession: power back to the employers?
Irish labour market still going gangbusters Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Banks making out like bandits. Energy companies making out like banks. Wholesale Energy prices down again.
Economists are using the wrong model Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Does Leinster's battering by Rochelle carry any lessons for Ireland's chances at the World Cup? The Rugby Special edition of the pod is back by popular demand!
With Nathan Johns of The Irish Times Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.