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The Other Hand

The Other Hand

535 episodes — Page 5 of 11

Draghi to Brussels: do whatever it takes or the EU is toast. Irish inflation, American debt and the mystery of still too high Euro interest rates.

Irish inflation this week confirmed that the economy is showing few, if any, obvious signs of overheating. Prices are still going. up but at their slowest pace in a long while. That said, prices are 20% higher than we saw pre-pandemic. Memo to economists: don't pretend you know what causes inflation.European interest rates are still too high.When does government debt matter? 100% of GDP? 300% of GDP? As always, it all depends! But the US is adding to its debt in a most reckless and unsustainable manner.The Draghi report is worth reading at least twice. It is incredibly hard hitting. Europe's economy is falling far behind the US. His message to Euope's policymakers: do whatever it takes to catch up. Otherwise, the European project risks failure. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sep 15, 202437 min

A podcast for petrol-heads. Life in the fast lane: the business of motor racing. And a young person's perspective on Ireland.

In this podcast special Jim talks with Alex Denning, a 25 year old racing superstar.The business of modern racing is all about money, contacts and driving talent - in that order.Alex talks about doing exactly what his parents didn't want him to do. Making it with McLaren!But it costs anything between 5-15 million to break into Formula 1. Sometimes more - your dad has to buy the car company!Want. to lose weight? Forget about Ozempic - drive a McLaren very fast for lots of laps and you will be a lot slimmer.Alex gives us a young person's perspective on life in Ireland. And on things UK, French and Italian (the French are rude and unwelcoming. Italian driving habits are very strange)EVs are losing traction. Why?And much more. Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sep 13, 202431 min

Apple taxes. Windfall taxes. A podcast special

To the surprise of many observers, Europe's top court has told Apple it must pay Ireland €13.1 billion in back taxes.In a case that dates back to 2016, it's partly a history lesson about dodgy practices - the double Irish and all that. Those days are long gone.But there is also an investment lesson here, one that is not just of historical interest. The outcome of the original investment was €14.8 billion became €13.1 billion, thanks to the original purchase of negative yielding government bonds. If the disputed taxes had been parked in Apple shares, the Irish government would today be in receipt of around €100 billion. Investment decisions are always massively consequential. Where to invest the €13.1 billion now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sep 11, 202421 min

'Europe faces an existential crisis'. According to Mario Draghi, at least.....He's right.

Latest jobs numbers from the US point to a weakening economy. Interest rate cuts are on the way. The only question is, 'how big?'European elites are warning that Europe could cease to exist in its current from unless radical remedial action is taken. Few politicians will lsiten. If they do, they won't act. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sep 10, 202428 min

It keeps raining cash on the Finance Minister. A big budget is coming.

Still drowning in cash, the new Finance Minister is warned by IFAC, yet again, not to spend it. Are the fiscal giveaways of past budgets really costing each household €1000 a year? Amidst all the cries of 'they are windfall taxes' it's forgotten that capital investment is - or should be - very different to current spending. We used to argue about borrowing for investment purposes - economists have always pointed that that borrowing for investment is perfectly ok, provided the return on that investment is higher than the cost. Now, some seem to be arguing that spending money that we already have, windfall or otherwise, still shouldn't be spent, even on high return projects. There's crying wolf and then just being daft.GDP data is all over the place and has defeated us. Exchequer returns and other data point to an economy still growing although not one that is overheating. Tax revenues are booming and unemployment is down again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sep 7, 202427 min

It's raining: spend the rainy day fund now! Have Sinn Fein finally stumbled upon a good idea?

Rather than put all the spare cash in a 'future proof' fund, should the Finance Minister simply recognise the future is here, right now?Deviance has been normalised. Bicycle sheds with golden roofs: a parable about quality versus quantity of government spending Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sep 4, 202434 min

Who is J D Vance? A podcast special with Professor Shane O'Mara

J D Vance has shot to prominence following his selection by Donald Trump to be, potentially, the next Vice President of the US.In this podcast special, we focus on Vance's 2016 best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, to try and explain and understand the man who clearly wants, one day, to be the leader of the free world.We are joined by Professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin to discuss all things JDV. And there really is a lot to discuss! Shane is also a best-selling author (of much better books than JDV's memoir) and writes his own Substack called BrainPizza. Do check out any of his works, especially his most recent book, 'Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds'. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 31, 20241h 0m

Tax breaks on pensions: what are they for? Inheritance taxes: should they be 100%

The upcoming budget is thought likely to include changes - increases - to tax breaks on pensions and a rise in inheritance tax thresholds. We both agree that helping millionaire pensioners with even more tax breaks is nuts. But we disagree sharply about the wisdom of inheritance taxes. These are incredibly emotive topics. As our discussion shows!The Other Hand always welcomes feedback - good, bad or indifferent. We share a particularly interesting perspective from one listener. Ireland's population continues to soar. But people are moving in and out. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 29, 202435 min

Never mind the policy, feel the vibe! Why any focus on Kamala Harris' economics is besides the point - for now.

Ireland has just set a new record for the number of people in employment. Back in the day, you either worked on the farm, civil service, domestic service or emigrated (only slightly simplified). If you had accurately forecast the relentless fall in agriculture-related jobs over the past decades you would have also forecast an overall economic disaster - one that did not happen. There were plenty of bad times of course but you would not have expected rapidly growing population and job numbers in 2024.Artificial Intelligence also threatens a jobs apocalypse. But maybe there are lessons to be learned from Ireland's economic transformation.Kamala Harris has promised a 28% tax rate. Do we take her literally or seriously? If delivered it could BOOST Ireland's corporation tax revenues. There again, Trump wants to reduce it to 15%, a clear threat to those revenues. And, of course, neither might happen.Everyone is paying too much attention to policy proposals and not enough to the vibe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 25, 202430 min

House prices zooming up again. What is driving property values? Is more construction really the answer?

Irish house prices are approaching double digit rates of increase. What is going on? Is it supply? Demand? Interest rates? Demography? The robust economy?Of course, it's all of the above. We need to think about all of these things. If you really want house prices to fall you would massively increase supply and aggressively raise interest rates. A good old fashioned recession would really help. So be careful what you wish for.The economy is, thankfully far from recession. But something weird is happening to sectoral trade trends with the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 18, 202433 min

Is it time to cancel Twitter/X? The weirdness of Trump. The pound-shop Bond villain Musk

Chris explains why he has deleted his Twitter/X account.Donald Trump is weird, but is it a good attack line for the Democrats?Elon Musk's resemblance to Bond villain Elliot CarverRussia has been invaded: a story that doesn't figure on the front pages.And the latest economic news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 14, 202433 min

Could Intel go the way of Nokia? The three big threats to Ireland's economy

It seems a touch fanciful to us, but some analysts are wondering if Intel could go the way of Nokia. What is true is that at least one big company with a big Irish presence is in a spot of bother. Let's hope its recovery plan works.But it is a reminder that many a once great company has disappeared. Who remembers that Nokia once was as dominant as Apple?The US regulator has declared Google to be a 'monopoly'. That could have profound consequences.Whether or not technological obsolescence and/or the regulator is coming for big parts of the tech sector, one thing is certain: if they can't turn the lights on, they will go elsewhere. Power supply is becoming an urgent issue.All this in more in our weekend edition. Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 10, 202431 min

Stock markets go down as well as up. Narrative fallacies and how to think about what happens next.

Reminder: stock markets go down as well as up. But wait long enough and they usually go up. Is the return of volatility a sign of a problem or just another wobble that will soon be forgotten?One problem is the story we create around these type of events. Our narratives are often not very good guesses.Chris puts some cash to work and Jim sticks to Bitcoin - this is not investment advice!!! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 7, 202435 min

Is the era of ultra low interest rates about to make an unexpected return?

Markets message to central banks: you are making a big mistake Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 3, 202434 min

Global growth is slowing - central banks behind the curve? Rocketing gas prices will cloud the inflation picture

'Weird' and 'vibe' are the words of the moment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Aug 1, 202437 min

Economic growth - what is it good for? Everything. Beware the luxury beliefs of the degrowthers

What is with all these extreme Catholics in positions of power & influence in the US? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 29, 202434 min

Catwomen, conspiracy theories and skewed tax systems

Is J D Vance nomination Trump's big strategic error? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 25, 202434 min

If inflation is coming down why is the price of a pint still over 7 quid?

Reflections on Hillbilly Hypocrisy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 22, 202431 min

Irish politics and the meaning of life. In conversation with Sarah Carey

Has Simon Harris managed to change the narrative? He's 'taken back control' of at least some of the key issue. We shouldn't underestimate the powerful psychological impact of wiping out Sinn Fein's aura pf 'electoral inevitability'.Is ' buying the next election' with a giveaway budget really a sensible strategy? Even politically?Is it true to FG's self-image as the party of fiscal rectitude? Is it even possible - is the Irish electorate that biddable? Perhaps call the general election and ask the electorate: vote for us and then we will show you the money.Alternatively, maybe a budget for housing, health and infrastructure would be more politically astute than one that doles out cash via tax cuts.SF's tack to the centre - or even the anti-immigration right - includes schmoozing business. That could alienate its left-wing.What are we going to do when all the priests are dead?What is right wing? J D Vance on conservatives Vs libertarians.And Much, much more! Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 18, 202448 min

Was the Summer Economic Statement worth the paper it was written on?

Is Keir Starmer already getting lucky? Only one month's data, but GDP growth smashed estimates in May.US and Irish inflation down again.IFAC warns about an 'overheating' risk to the Irish economy. Why we should all, in fact, get to love overheating.Nvidia, AI & the US stock market: amazing growthBiden is losing his friends. He should make Kamala Harris President now.Orban has a very dodgy group of friends. Poland is getting nervous. Reform. We note that the infighting looks to have begun Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 14, 202435 min

A deep dive into the current state of Irish politics with Tull McAdoo

The Irish political scene looks as fluid as that in France, the UK and elsewhere. The polls are getting it wrong and plenty of voters don't make up their minds until they enter the polling booth. We take a deep dive into all of this with renowned Irish political analyst and commentator, Tull McAdoo.Why is Sinn Fein's vote collapsing? Will they recover? Maybe their last General Election result was a proper Black Swan event and the recent local and European elections are a better reflection of their base level support. Maybe they simply are not the well-oiled machine of urban - and mainstream media - legendHas Simon Harris helped you put out the washing? 'Politics is a retail business'.Coalitions always end badly, the current one will be no different. Smaller parties, in particular, always emerge very damaged.Advice to all wannabe politicians: knock on doors!And much more! Enjoy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 12, 202430 min

A smile on our faces? In conversation about all things UK - 'Brexit & Beyond' - with Professor Chris Grey

In conversation with author, blogger and columnist, Professor Chris GreyPost the Labour landslide election victory, some of us have smiles on our faces. Does the result mean we can now really turn the page on the chaos and mendacity of the last 14 years? Is Keir Starmer relying on dumb luck for success? Is this the last chance saloon for the UK?"Stability, Investment and Reform". How deliverable are these things? Will they be enough, particularly as there is no money?Labour is placing a big bet on getting construction going again. Who is going to do he building if immigration is to be reduced?How do you do he right thing if you are subsequently politically crucified?Can the UK really move closer to the EU with Farage in Parliament and the rabid Brexit media waiting in the wings?And much more! Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 10, 202443 min

Has Liz Truss done the world a big favour? Reflections on the UK General election

The Irish finance minister is drowning in cash. Booming tax revenues the clearest indicator - much better than GDP - that the economy remains robust.Politics over economics: Charlie McCreevy once said when finance minister, "If I have it, I'll spend it'. It's not what the budgetary watchdog or the central bank would endorse - quite the opposite of course. But if its bad economics, is it good politics? If so, the upcoming budget is going to be something else.Will that budget be quickly followed by an election?The UK, of course, has just had its own election. We discuss the many and varied takeaways. Chris suggests that the UK electing a centrist government after 14 chaotic and crazy years is cause for celebration and could just change the economic narrative, whatever the political fallout. Maybe Liz Truss did us all a favour and has given a salutary lesson to those who would flirt with batshit crazy populism. Maybe even in Ireland.Joe Biden and the Democrats have to change the narrative. Make Kamala Harris president. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 8, 202438 min

Why is everyone so unhappy? Or are we? In conversation with Professor Shane O'Mara

In this podcast we welcome back regular guest, Professor Shane O'Mara, neuroscientist and professor at Trinity College Dublin.I a review of an important new book by Dan Davies, professor Brad de Long of Berkley asks the question: given we are over 15 times better off than our pre-industrial ancestors, why are we so miserable. Davies gives one answer: things have become so complex, few people know how anything works any more and nobody is in charge. So nobody is accountable. 'Nothing works any more' is a constant refrain and Davies gives us his ideas about why so many of us feel that way. His answers may also give pointers as to why the established order - which seems to to make us so unhappy - was overthrown by Brexit, Trump and is going that way in many other countries, not least France.Professor O'Mara pushes back, gently, against some of this. Demagogues know how to trigger the 30ish % of us that have latent authoritarian tendencies. Make us afraid of immigrants, the deep state, Brussels - we all know the mantras by now. Le Pen & co just know how to get a significant minority afraid and angry. Maybe it was ever thus. Chris argues that something has, in fact, changed and some things are worse. Shane says there is plenty of evidence that says we are happier than the headlines suggest. But measuring 'life satisfaction' is nuanced and tricky.But isn't it obvious where the increase in unhappiness has occurred? France, the US the UK?The UK was the first to give manifest expression to its anger with the rupture - disaster - that was Brexit. Maybe because of a form of collective PTSD, Brexit cannot be talked about because of the fear of triggering precisely that post-traumatic stress. Maybe its just too soon to have the adult conversation. But those who brought forth the trauma are about to get their just deserts. Maybe. Populists appeal but cannot deliver - or just govern.Some more thoughts on Biden and cognitive decline - don't jump to hasty conclusions.And much more! Enjoy! We certainly did! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 4, 202441 min

The horseshoe theory of politics - hard right or left? The year of the election goes into top gear

The French elections will likely reverberate across Europe. Perhaps even alter the course of the war in Ukraine.The UK will now see the final death throes of the Tory Party. Farage is on the cusp of another victory. Of sorts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jul 1, 202427 min

Irish house prices on the rise again. So are global house prices. They should have fallen 30%-50 but interest rates are now set to fall.%

The most inept election campaign in history? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jun 21, 202430 min

The Middle of the Year of The Election - how the Pentagon's analysis of UFOs could help political analysts

Is The Other Hand behind the demise of Sinn Fein? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jun 16, 202426 min

'After taking the pin out, you are supposed to throw the grenade'. Is the UK really in worse political shape than the US?

An immediate post-budget Irish election? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jun 7, 202428 min

"Stop the world, we want to get off": SF takes offence at the 'militarisation of the EU'. A poor month for the Irish consumer. REal wage growth might come to the rescue.

How far can EU rate cuts diverge from the US? And much more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jun 2, 202434 min

A rare opportunity to do the strategically right thing and reap political dividends: a budget for housing, not tax cuts.

Jean-Claude Juncker, ex-head of the EU Commission, once famously said that policymakers know what is the right thing to do, but don't know how to get re-elected if they do it. That is true too much of the time. But is there a unique opportunity for the Irish government, for once to do the right thing and to be rewarded for it at the ballot box?Finance Minister McGrath has promised a tax-cutting budget. Is he missing a trick? Housing has such political salience in Ireland, if he threw the kitchen sink at building more homes instead of tax cuts, maybe that is also a vote-winning strategy? And also an opportunity to give Sinn Fein a good kicking while they are down?Meanwhile, data emerges that shows the Irish tax system becoming even more unbalanced. That's storing up problems for the future.San Francisco hasn't had an earthquake lately but its commercial property sector is crashing. Vacancy rates are probably higher that the 30+% reported as some big companies are effectively squatting in very under-utilised space. Why not just covert all this space into housing? Lots of other cities, including Irish ones, are in the same position.Rishi Sunak's damage limitation exercises backfire. Labour can't believe its luck.Keir Starmer's irish influencers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 29, 202435 min

Economic PTSD? EU economy growing again. US economy accelerates? Stock market reaction to Nvidia humbles analysts

UK election dominates headlines that should be about China simulating war Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 26, 202433 min

Interest rates likely to fall next month - in the EU at least. But does the ECB know what it is doing? Nvidia & the nuttiness of stock markets.

Inflation falls in the UK but *only* to 2.3%. Cue weeping and wailing and much hot air. The narcissism of small differences.Does anybody know what really causes inflation? Does the ECB understand the connection (or lack of) between interest rates and inflation? The human aspects of all this are often lost in dry discussions of monetary policy and inflation. But the human dimension is real, big and too often ignored by central banks. Nvidia, AI, data centres and the nuttiness of stock markets.Housing policy contains asymmetrical risks: building too few is much more dangerous than building too many. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 23, 202433 min

Politics & opinion polls in Ireland, UK & US. Why are Sinn Fein suffering because of immigration? Have they lost vital momentum?

Opinion polls on both sides of the Atlantic tell fascinating stories. Sinn Fein has lost momentum. Have they peaked too soon? Rishi Sunak's Tories are now polling at lower levels that the nadir of Liz Truss' government. That really is some going. Trump breaks wind audibly in court, hears stories about his sexual peccadillos and goes up in the polls.It is said that SF are suffering because 'they have let their electorate down because of immigration'. Right wing parties everywhere, including Ireland, are on the rise because of the immigration issue. Yet right wing governments in power in the UK and Italy show how hard - impossible even - 'solving' immigration is. Is it really true that immigrants take jobs? Spoiler alert: no. What are SF's actual policies? Are they like the UK's Labour party, a policy-free zone? Long on promises, short on what they will do?We are almost certainly still filling our cars with Russian fuel.China and Russia deepen ties. China enables the Russian war machine. China has the best batteries.Global stock markets continue to tell us: 'don't worry, be happy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 19, 202427 min

Is immigration just one of those unsolvable problems? Biden's EV tariffs repeat the mistakes of the 1970s

We might need 80,000 new houses a year - or we might not. It all depends on so many imponderables.One of them being the level of immigration. We now see that everywhere as a problem to be solved. Is it solvable?Biden is trying to keep cheap Chinese electronic vehicles out of the US. Europe is thinking about doing the same. That's all to protect domestic car manufacturers who don't know how to produce cheap EVs. The Chinese do. We are repeating the mistakes of the 1970s when Japanese car manufacturers figured out how to make cars that consumers want. Western car companies, by and large, didn't know why production techniques that dated from the 1930s were no longer fit for purpose.Solution: copy Chinese IP! They've been doing it to us for years. Return the favour! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 15, 202430 min

Is the liberal world order really about to collapse? Or should we take cheer from 'The Curse of The Economist"

The State the UK is in & much more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 13, 202431 min

Has Robert Kennedy JR's brain been eaten by a worm? Could it be responsible for his conspiracy theories. Do protests work?

In conversation with Professor of Experimental Brain Research, Shane O'Mara.Robert Kennedy Junior says a worm has eaten part of his brain. Is this possible? Yes - but his 'brain fog' and other symptoms could have been caused by something else. Partly eaten or not, his possible brain injuries are not likely to have led to a predisposition to conspiracy theories. RFK is a prominent anti-vaxxer, for instance.Why do so many of us fall for conspiracy theories? Belonging, group hugs and tribalism are part of the answer. We take cognitive short cuts that help us ignore objective reality.Anti-vaxxers have, in some cases, just forgotten what disease looks like. Shane reminds us of the actual cheer that went around the world when the polio vaccine was first announced.Lots of protests are around at the moment. Protest is a uniquely human behaviour - why bother when so few protests actually elicit change? Generally, they don't work. It's that group hug thing again. The "collective effervescence" of being part of a crowd.All this and more in another conversation with the brain expert!Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology and Institute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin,D02 PN40, IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizza Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 11, 202439 min

If Gaza gifts Trump the White House the great Bidenomics experiment is over. A lot of other things will also be over.

The economic consequences of the war in Gaza have so far been very limited. The oil price has been well-behaved, all things considered.But that war is shaping up to be a forever war. That's the logical conclusion that flows from observing two sides committed to the other's destruction. If the war costs Biden the election then another logical conclusion is that the great Bidenomics experiment is over. There is a lot of doubt about the fiscal sustainability of Biden's economic program but not enough recognition is given to its phenomenal success.We discuss the incredibly hard hitting article by Martin Wolf that lays out how the US is heading for despotism and how we are, indeed, all heading for disaster if Trump is elected. It's scary stuff.Everything is connected to everything else. Macron really is right. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 9, 202429 min

Unemployment edges up on both sides of the Atlantic. UK election results show Sunak up as a hopeless politician he really can't do politics.

Unemployment edges up on both sides of the Atlantic - things are definitely showing early signs of slowing down.Whatever the outlook there are very good reasons to quietly ditch the 2% inflation targets that apply to the FED, BoE and ECB - particularly in the US, too much harm will be caused by a drive to 2%. Quietly adopt 3% inflation targets and get on with interest rate cuts. That 2% number was plucked out of thin air in the first place, decades ago, and has outlasted its usefulness.Rishi Sunak came to office promising much and delivering next to nothing. His political skills are next to non-existent. A strange thing to say about a Prime Minister. But he staked his premiership - and electoral chances - on a target that not enough people care about and a target that he couldn't meet. A more skilled politician would have asked 'what do most voters actually want?'. He asked the bat-shit crazy wing of the Tory Party that question and, surprise surprise, got a bat-shit crazy answer.Emmanuel Macron is right: unless Europe rearms, Putin will wage war on us. He already is - it will just get nastier and closer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 5, 202435 min

An ex-UK Cabinet Minister suggests bussing refugees to the Irish border in order to show the "pious" Irish government who is the boss.

The border never went away you know. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

May 1, 202439 min

If war is coming to Europe, is membership of the EU and neutrality mutually inconsistent?

A packed podcast:It may be the ultimate social faux pas, but dare we say the latest Revenue annual report contains a wealth of fascinating data?Back taxes owed by SMEs could be - maybe are - a real problemShort-termism: anyone wondering why some companies and countries don't inest enough in themselves need look no further than META's (Facebook) results this week. The shares tanked because the tech giant announced a huge capital spending program (mostly in AI). Financial markets want one thing only: instant gratification. That translates as "show us the cash". Dividends, share buybacks and increases in revenues are the golden trifecta that leads to higher share prices. But investment means spending cash. That's the big no-no. The paradox, of course, is that the only thing that leads to long-term growth in dividends, share buybacks and revenues is investment. Companies and countries that stint on investment don't grow. You couldn't make it up.If (hopefully a big if) another European war is on the way, is being a member of the EU and remaining neutral mutually inconsistent?And all the latest data! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 28, 202433 min

What will the next generation think of us? Taking the other side of IMF forecast bets.

The Irish government has released its latest assessment of where the economy is heading. It looks like. a forlorn attempt to dampen expectations ahead of another giveaway budget in a few months time. The last before the general election.The golden goose will someday stop laying its eggs. What will future generations think of us, what we did the largesses generously donated by the multinational tax boom? Will we be 'grateful Norwegians', now rich because they saved their windfall taxes (from oil). Or will we resemble the 'morose British' who blew all their windfall oil taxes on what?Is there much more capacity for extra housebuilding than is conventionally thought?Will house prices ever fall to 'affordable' levels, even with extra supply. Or were houses just 'the wrong price' a generation ago?Chris takes the other side of the IMF forecast bets: we are approaching peak short term growth optimism and the IMF is way too pessimistic about the medium term At least Ireland has a fiscal debate grounded in arithmetic. The UK's fiscal conversation is total hokum.And all the latest economic data Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 25, 202431 min

Irish house prices up again. Time to change the global growth narrative? Markets, the IMF & The Economist all have bought into stronger growth & higher interest rates.

Wing nuts are in charge? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 21, 202437 min

Will Ireland go Dutch? Prolonged coalition negotiations likely if no party gets more than 30% of the GE vote.

Latest opinion polls - and a bit of political crystal ball gazing - points to no one party getting more than 30% of the vote at the upcoming Irish general election.Why is that and what might it mean? Will Ireland 'Go Dutch' (or Belgian...)? Are we in for weeks or even months of prolonged coalition negotiations?The deteriorating geopolitical situation might give voters pause for thought about the sort of politicians they want. As talk of WW3 gets louder, will Ireland want to be led by SF?What is for sure is that SF policies will be subject to forensic scrutiny - unlike last time.Ban Tik Tok? Chinese Communist Party or Elon Musk - who is the better owner of social media companies? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 18, 202431 min

It's beginning to look a lot like the 1930s

Initial financial market reaction to big events is often wrong Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 16, 202433 min

Higher for longer US interest rates = higher for longer mortgage rates in Ireland and U.K.

More thoughts on the. Economics of Irish reunification Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 14, 202428 min

Irish reunification: the costs and other issues - many that haven't even been thought about

Professor Edgar Morgenroth has recently published a joint paper with professor John Fitzgerald that takes a deep dive into the potential costs of Irish reunification.We talk to Edgar about his work. We look at lessons from german reunification and the asumptions behind his estimates that it could cost the Irish taxpayer a lot of money. And a lot of sweat and tears.Planning will be essential. Bad outcomes after ill thought out referendums have historical precedent. Brexit for instance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 11, 202449 min

Getting ready for war in Europe? Competing narrative fallacies about markets.

Watch the oil price Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 8, 202427 min

Inflation falls again. But interest rates cut hopes fade. World economy fails to land - takes off instead.

Irish and Eurozone inflation falls again - what is the ECB waiting for?In the US, the super soaraway economy is dashing hopes of quick rate cuts . Perhaps any rate cuts. We need to remind ourselves that this is a good thing. Will the earthquake in Taiwan create another supply shock? We think not but it is worth watching. So are oil prices worth close monitoring.Preparing for war on islands just off Taiwan.Is the EV craze cresting?Why do some US Republicans believe anything that Putin says?We look at the history of civilian casualties during wartime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apr 3, 202431 min

Is free trade always and everywhere a good thing? Get ready for the 2nd China shock - the first one gave us Trump, Brexit and the populist plague

One of the first thing that economists are taught is the Free Trade is a Good Thing. One thing that economists don't speak too much about is that free trade creates both winners and losers. Arguably, not nearly enough attention has been paid to the losers.Whether or free trade is always a net positive depends on many factors. And the alternatives to free trade - the choices made by politicians about things like protectionism - can be even worse. That said, China's accession to the World Trade Organisation was a huge shock and wiped out huge swathes of manufacturing industry and jobs throughout the developed world. Too much too soon seems have been the case. Those left behind communities became the hunting ground for Trump, Brexiteers and populists. They stil are - and there is a distinct possibility of a second China shock coming our way. What will be the results this time?Irish SMEs complain about government inspired costs and regulatory burdens. Are they right to moan? A lot of SMEs are either failing or in danger of going bust.Interest rates: the new normal isn't too far away from where they are now. Discuss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mar 31, 202436 min

'I didn't leave Fine Gael, they left me'. In conversation with leading journalist Sarah Carey

Leading journalist Sarah Carey talks to Jim and Chris about Leo Varadkar's departure and Simon Harris' accession.'Harris needs to be much more than a good communicator'. The big test, one of many, will be his choice of cabinet. That will signal whether genuine change is on the way. 'The reshuffle will tell us if Harris is serious'Will any exiting FG TDs be tempted back?Why are so many voices of the centre so scared to speak up?Why do 'progressives' oppose building anything?Harris should ban his party from social media.Mainstream media ( we are looking at you Fintan and Una) is as responsible as Sinn Fein for painting Ireland as a failed state. All of the evidence, with full acknowledgement of all of the problems, shows emphatically that Ireland is the opposite of a dystopian hell hole.Sinn Fein have peaked. The electorate is waking up to the fact that they offer slogan without solutions. The ones to watch are the independents. Maybe some of them should be tempted into government via ministerial appointments - but only if they join the Party.Politicians take all of the blame and none of the credit. It's a cruel and thankless gig. Maybe FG need a spell in opposition? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mar 27, 202434 min