The Other Hand

Is Keir Starmer already getting lucky? Only one month's data, but GDP growth smashed estimates in May.US and Irish inflation down again.IFAC warns about an 'overheating' risk to the Irish economy. Why we should all, in fact, get to love overheating.Nvidia, AI & the US stock market: amazing growthBiden is losing his friends. He should make Kamala Harris President now.Orban has a very dodgy group of friends. Poland is getting nervous. Reform. We note that the infighting looks to have begun Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Irish political scene looks as fluid as that in France, the UK and elsewhere. The polls are getting it wrong and plenty of voters don't make up their minds until they enter the polling booth. We take a deep dive into all of this with renowned Irish political analyst and commentator, Tull McAdoo.Why is Sinn Fein's vote collapsing? Will they recover? Maybe their last General Election result was a proper Black Swan event and the recent local and European elections are a better reflection of their base level support. Maybe they simply are not the well-oiled machine of urban - and mainstream media - legendHas Simon Harris helped you put out the washing? 'Politics is a retail business'.Coalitions always end badly, the current one will be no different. Smaller parties, in particular, always emerge very damaged.Advice to all wannabe politicians: knock on doors!And much more! Enjoy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with author, blogger and columnist, Professor Chris GreyPost the Labour landslide election victory, some of us have smiles on our faces. Does the result mean we can now really turn the page on the chaos and mendacity of the last 14 years? Is Keir Starmer relying on dumb luck for success? Is this the last chance saloon for the UK?"Stability, Investment and Reform". How deliverable are these things? Will they be enough, particularly as there is no money?Labour is placing a big bet on getting construction going again. Who is going to do he building if immigration is to be reduced?How do you do he right thing if you are subsequently politically crucified?Can the UK really move closer to the EU with Farage in Parliament and the rabid Brexit media waiting in the wings?And much more! Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Irish finance minister is drowning in cash. Booming tax revenues the clearest indicator - much better than GDP - that the economy remains robust.Politics over economics: Charlie McCreevy once said when finance minister, "If I have it, I'll spend it'. It's not what the budgetary watchdog or the central bank would endorse - quite the opposite of course. But if its bad economics, is it good politics? If so, the upcoming budget is going to be something else.Will that budget be quickly followed by an election?The UK, of course, has just had its own election. We discuss the many and varied takeaways. Chris suggests that the UK electing a centrist government after 14 chaotic and crazy years is cause for celebration and could just change the economic narrative, whatever the political fallout. Maybe Liz Truss did us all a favour and has given a salutary lesson to those who would flirt with batshit crazy populism. Maybe even in Ireland.Joe Biden and the Democrats have to change the narrative. Make Kamala Harris president. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this podcast we welcome back regular guest, Professor Shane O'Mara, neuroscientist and professor at Trinity College Dublin.I a review of an important new book by Dan Davies, professor Brad de Long of Berkley asks the question: given we are over 15 times better off than our pre-industrial ancestors, why are we so miserable. Davies gives one answer: things have become so complex, few people know how anything works any more and nobody is in charge. So nobody is accountable. 'Nothing works any more' is a constant refrain and Davies gives us his ideas about why so many of us feel that way. His answers may also give pointers as to why the established order - which seems to to make us so unhappy - was overthrown by Brexit, Trump and is going that way in many other countries, not least France.Professor O'Mara pushes back, gently, against some of this. Demagogues know how to trigger the 30ish % of us that have latent authoritarian tendencies. Make us afraid of immigrants, the deep state, Brussels - we all know the mantras by now. Le Pen & co just know how to get a significant minority afraid and angry. Maybe it was ever thus. Chris argues that something has, in fact, changed and some things are worse. Shane says there is plenty of evidence that says we are happier than the headlines suggest. But measuring 'life satisfaction' is nuanced and tricky.But isn't it obvious where the increase in unhappiness has occurred? France, the US the UK?The UK was the first to give manifest expression to its anger with the rupture - disaster - that was Brexit. Maybe because of a form of collective PTSD, Brexit cannot be talked about because of the fear of triggering precisely that post-traumatic stress. Maybe its just too soon to have the adult conversation. But those who brought forth the trauma are about to get their just deserts. Maybe. Populists appeal but cannot deliver - or just govern.Some more thoughts on Biden and cognitive decline - don't jump to hasty conclusions.And much more! Enjoy! We certainly did! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The French elections will likely reverberate across Europe. Perhaps even alter the course of the war in Ukraine.The UK will now see the final death throes of the Tory Party. Farage is on the cusp of another victory. Of sorts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The most inept election campaign in history? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is The Other Hand behind the demise of Sinn Fein? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

An immediate post-budget Irish election? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How far can EU rate cuts diverge from the US? And much more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jean-Claude Juncker, ex-head of the EU Commission, once famously said that policymakers know what is the right thing to do, but don't know how to get re-elected if they do it. That is true too much of the time. But is there a unique opportunity for the Irish government, for once to do the right thing and to be rewarded for it at the ballot box?Finance Minister McGrath has promised a tax-cutting budget. Is he missing a trick? Housing has such political salience in Ireland, if he threw the kitchen sink at building more homes instead of tax cuts, maybe that is also a vote-winning strategy? And also an opportunity to give Sinn Fein a good kicking while they are down?Meanwhile, data emerges that shows the Irish tax system becoming even more unbalanced. That's storing up problems for the future.San Francisco hasn't had an earthquake lately but its commercial property sector is crashing. Vacancy rates are probably higher that the 30+% reported as some big companies are effectively squatting in very under-utilised space. Why not just covert all this space into housing? Lots of other cities, including Irish ones, are in the same position.Rishi Sunak's damage limitation exercises backfire. Labour can't believe its luck.Keir Starmer's irish influencers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK election dominates headlines that should be about China simulating war Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation falls in the UK but *only* to 2.3%. Cue weeping and wailing and much hot air. The narcissism of small differences.Does anybody know what really causes inflation? Does the ECB understand the connection (or lack of) between interest rates and inflation? The human aspects of all this are often lost in dry discussions of monetary policy and inflation. But the human dimension is real, big and too often ignored by central banks. Nvidia, AI, data centres and the nuttiness of stock markets.Housing policy contains asymmetrical risks: building too few is much more dangerous than building too many. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Opinion polls on both sides of the Atlantic tell fascinating stories. Sinn Fein has lost momentum. Have they peaked too soon? Rishi Sunak's Tories are now polling at lower levels that the nadir of Liz Truss' government. That really is some going. Trump breaks wind audibly in court, hears stories about his sexual peccadillos and goes up in the polls.It is said that SF are suffering because 'they have let their electorate down because of immigration'. Right wing parties everywhere, including Ireland, are on the rise because of the immigration issue. Yet right wing governments in power in the UK and Italy show how hard - impossible even - 'solving' immigration is. Is it really true that immigrants take jobs? Spoiler alert: no. What are SF's actual policies? Are they like the UK's Labour party, a policy-free zone? Long on promises, short on what they will do?We are almost certainly still filling our cars with Russian fuel.China and Russia deepen ties. China enables the Russian war machine. China has the best batteries.Global stock markets continue to tell us: 'don't worry, be happy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We might need 80,000 new houses a year - or we might not. It all depends on so many imponderables.One of them being the level of immigration. We now see that everywhere as a problem to be solved. Is it solvable?Biden is trying to keep cheap Chinese electronic vehicles out of the US. Europe is thinking about doing the same. That's all to protect domestic car manufacturers who don't know how to produce cheap EVs. The Chinese do. We are repeating the mistakes of the 1970s when Japanese car manufacturers figured out how to make cars that consumers want. Western car companies, by and large, didn't know why production techniques that dated from the 1930s were no longer fit for purpose.Solution: copy Chinese IP! They've been doing it to us for years. Return the favour! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The State the UK is in & much more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with Professor of Experimental Brain Research, Shane O'Mara.Robert Kennedy Junior says a worm has eaten part of his brain. Is this possible? Yes - but his 'brain fog' and other symptoms could have been caused by something else. Partly eaten or not, his possible brain injuries are not likely to have led to a predisposition to conspiracy theories. RFK is a prominent anti-vaxxer, for instance.Why do so many of us fall for conspiracy theories? Belonging, group hugs and tribalism are part of the answer. We take cognitive short cuts that help us ignore objective reality.Anti-vaxxers have, in some cases, just forgotten what disease looks like. Shane reminds us of the actual cheer that went around the world when the polio vaccine was first announced.Lots of protests are around at the moment. Protest is a uniquely human behaviour - why bother when so few protests actually elicit change? Generally, they don't work. It's that group hug thing again. The "collective effervescence" of being part of a crowd.All this and more in another conversation with the brain expert!Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology and Institute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin,D02 PN40, IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizza Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The economic consequences of the war in Gaza have so far been very limited. The oil price has been well-behaved, all things considered.But that war is shaping up to be a forever war. That's the logical conclusion that flows from observing two sides committed to the other's destruction. If the war costs Biden the election then another logical conclusion is that the great Bidenomics experiment is over. There is a lot of doubt about the fiscal sustainability of Biden's economic program but not enough recognition is given to its phenomenal success.We discuss the incredibly hard hitting article by Martin Wolf that lays out how the US is heading for despotism and how we are, indeed, all heading for disaster if Trump is elected. It's scary stuff.Everything is connected to everything else. Macron really is right. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Unemployment edges up on both sides of the Atlantic - things are definitely showing early signs of slowing down.Whatever the outlook there are very good reasons to quietly ditch the 2% inflation targets that apply to the FED, BoE and ECB - particularly in the US, too much harm will be caused by a drive to 2%. Quietly adopt 3% inflation targets and get on with interest rate cuts. That 2% number was plucked out of thin air in the first place, decades ago, and has outlasted its usefulness.Rishi Sunak came to office promising much and delivering next to nothing. His political skills are next to non-existent. A strange thing to say about a Prime Minister. But he staked his premiership - and electoral chances - on a target that not enough people care about and a target that he couldn't meet. A more skilled politician would have asked 'what do most voters actually want?'. He asked the bat-shit crazy wing of the Tory Party that question and, surprise surprise, got a bat-shit crazy answer.Emmanuel Macron is right: unless Europe rearms, Putin will wage war on us. He already is - it will just get nastier and closer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The border never went away you know. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A packed podcast:It may be the ultimate social faux pas, but dare we say the latest Revenue annual report contains a wealth of fascinating data?Back taxes owed by SMEs could be - maybe are - a real problemShort-termism: anyone wondering why some companies and countries don't inest enough in themselves need look no further than META's (Facebook) results this week. The shares tanked because the tech giant announced a huge capital spending program (mostly in AI). Financial markets want one thing only: instant gratification. That translates as "show us the cash". Dividends, share buybacks and increases in revenues are the golden trifecta that leads to higher share prices. But investment means spending cash. That's the big no-no. The paradox, of course, is that the only thing that leads to long-term growth in dividends, share buybacks and revenues is investment. Companies and countries that stint on investment don't grow. You couldn't make it up.If (hopefully a big if) another European war is on the way, is being a member of the EU and remaining neutral mutually inconsistent?And all the latest data! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Irish government has released its latest assessment of where the economy is heading. It looks like. a forlorn attempt to dampen expectations ahead of another giveaway budget in a few months time. The last before the general election.The golden goose will someday stop laying its eggs. What will future generations think of us, what we did the largesses generously donated by the multinational tax boom? Will we be 'grateful Norwegians', now rich because they saved their windfall taxes (from oil). Or will we resemble the 'morose British' who blew all their windfall oil taxes on what?Is there much more capacity for extra housebuilding than is conventionally thought?Will house prices ever fall to 'affordable' levels, even with extra supply. Or were houses just 'the wrong price' a generation ago?Chris takes the other side of the IMF forecast bets: we are approaching peak short term growth optimism and the IMF is way too pessimistic about the medium term At least Ireland has a fiscal debate grounded in arithmetic. The UK's fiscal conversation is total hokum.And all the latest economic data Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wing nuts are in charge? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest opinion polls - and a bit of political crystal ball gazing - points to no one party getting more than 30% of the vote at the upcoming Irish general election.Why is that and what might it mean? Will Ireland 'Go Dutch' (or Belgian...)? Are we in for weeks or even months of prolonged coalition negotiations?The deteriorating geopolitical situation might give voters pause for thought about the sort of politicians they want. As talk of WW3 gets louder, will Ireland want to be led by SF?What is for sure is that SF policies will be subject to forensic scrutiny - unlike last time.Ban Tik Tok? Chinese Communist Party or Elon Musk - who is the better owner of social media companies? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Initial financial market reaction to big events is often wrong Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

More thoughts on the. Economics of Irish reunification Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Professor Edgar Morgenroth has recently published a joint paper with professor John Fitzgerald that takes a deep dive into the potential costs of Irish reunification.We talk to Edgar about his work. We look at lessons from german reunification and the asumptions behind his estimates that it could cost the Irish taxpayer a lot of money. And a lot of sweat and tears.Planning will be essential. Bad outcomes after ill thought out referendums have historical precedent. Brexit for instance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Watch the oil price Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish and Eurozone inflation falls again - what is the ECB waiting for?In the US, the super soaraway economy is dashing hopes of quick rate cuts . Perhaps any rate cuts. We need to remind ourselves that this is a good thing. Will the earthquake in Taiwan create another supply shock? We think not but it is worth watching. So are oil prices worth close monitoring.Preparing for war on islands just off Taiwan.Is the EV craze cresting?Why do some US Republicans believe anything that Putin says?We look at the history of civilian casualties during wartime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One of the first thing that economists are taught is the Free Trade is a Good Thing. One thing that economists don't speak too much about is that free trade creates both winners and losers. Arguably, not nearly enough attention has been paid to the losers.Whether or free trade is always a net positive depends on many factors. And the alternatives to free trade - the choices made by politicians about things like protectionism - can be even worse. That said, China's accession to the World Trade Organisation was a huge shock and wiped out huge swathes of manufacturing industry and jobs throughout the developed world. Too much too soon seems have been the case. Those left behind communities became the hunting ground for Trump, Brexiteers and populists. They stil are - and there is a distinct possibility of a second China shock coming our way. What will be the results this time?Irish SMEs complain about government inspired costs and regulatory burdens. Are they right to moan? A lot of SMEs are either failing or in danger of going bust.Interest rates: the new normal isn't too far away from where they are now. Discuss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leading journalist Sarah Carey talks to Jim and Chris about Leo Varadkar's departure and Simon Harris' accession.'Harris needs to be much more than a good communicator'. The big test, one of many, will be his choice of cabinet. That will signal whether genuine change is on the way. 'The reshuffle will tell us if Harris is serious'Will any exiting FG TDs be tempted back?Why are so many voices of the centre so scared to speak up?Why do 'progressives' oppose building anything?Harris should ban his party from social media.Mainstream media ( we are looking at you Fintan and Una) is as responsible as Sinn Fein for painting Ireland as a failed state. All of the evidence, with full acknowledgement of all of the problems, shows emphatically that Ireland is the opposite of a dystopian hell hole.Sinn Fein have peaked. The electorate is waking up to the fact that they offer slogan without solutions. The ones to watch are the independents. Maybe some of them should be tempted into government via ministerial appointments - but only if they join the Party.Politicians take all of the blame and none of the credit. It's a cruel and thankless gig. Maybe FG need a spell in opposition? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global growth showing signs of acceleration Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets are telling us to stop worrying Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A packed podcast!For the past year or so we have been noticing weakness in Irish exports, particularly pharmaceuticals and one or two other key areas. Falling exports were a big driver of the Irish 'recession' last year.At least part of this was Covid related and the fall represented payback for the massive boost arising from exports of vaccine and other health related products during the pandemic. It's only one month's data, so shouldn't be over-interpreted, but latest numbers hint at two things. First, normalisation of exports may be close. Second, as the quintessential small open economy, Ireland is a bell-weather for the world economy. Maybe there is a hint of global trade and global growth picking up.Maybe the U.S. won’t cut rates at all this year?Irish inflation continues its fall.Oil prices edging up again. China - the one economy where we cannot talk about a positive growth surprise.interest rates at current levels are maybe the new normal?Macron’e Ukrainian epiphanyJim disappears down the crypto rabbit hole Happy St Patrick’s day! Ireland’s soft power is worth billions. Only idiots begrudge its exercise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everybody in financial markets is starting to ask: is this another bubble, a near quarter century after the dot.com crash? Are those comparisons with 1999/2000 valid or is the AI boom for real? What does AI think of the AI 'bubble'?The UK ends its mild recession but lots of workers are going on the sick - the long term sick. This could be a real problem for growth prospects.The Central Bank of Ireland forecasts a robust irish economy and muses about workers shifting from building offices to constructing houses. If so, that's good news.The people of `Ireland have given two fingers to the political establishment. Patronise the electorate at your peril. Could Sinn Fein be the big loser from the referendum debacle? Another European lurch to the right, this time in Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All the latest economic data Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All the latest economic news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the numbers, the Irish economy is in recession - but is it?Talking to one segment of the Irish diaspora - what do they think of their host country? And their thoughts on Ireland.European inflation comes in at 2.6% vs 2.5% expected. How awful. "The incumbent government is deeply unpopular with younger voters because NIMBY older voters are allowed to block all development" Which country is described in this quote? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Current opinion polls are pointing towards another coalition government. How long would those coalition negotiations take? Would a prolonged period of no government be a bad thing for business and the economy?Are banks making too much money? If so, what is the right remedy? Tax those profits? Break them up to force competition? Encourage Fintech new entrants?Irish jobs at a record high. A truly remarkable story.2nd anniversary of the Ukraine war. Many are in denial but Russia is on the advance and Cold War 2 is well underway. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

House prices rise in Ireland - - for the fourth month is a row? How come? Plenty of buyers is the simple answer. It seems that higher interest rates don't work in the way they used to. Do they even work at all?Speaking of interest rates, the prominent economist who got the US - and global - inflation story right, and therefore the interest rate story right, is musing about the possibility that the next move in US rates might have to be up. That's right, up. If true - and it's only an outside chance at this stage - this will have ramifications for all financial markets and economies. Maybe even house prices. There again, maybe not.Executive pay - winner takes all in a system that is so obviously rigged it could turn anyone into a lefty revolutionary.Westminster doesn't work. It is a Trifecta of dysfunction - we talked about this before the latest nonsense erupted!Russian forces are on the advance in Ukraine. It doesn't look good.Jim is asked how it feels to be replaced by a robot! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A lawyer - a 'special prosecutor' - recently caused a furore with an allegation about Joe Biden's 'cognitive decline'In conversation with Professor of neuroscience Shane O'Mara we explore the mysteries of ageing and the emerging evidence about how to maximise our chances of becoming a 'Super Ager'That lawyer shouldn't have tried to diagnose Biden. Nor should any non-specialist. There are strict criteria for that sort of thing. There is no publicly available evidence that suggests Biden meets those criteria. A speculation: these days, all things considered, if that evidence existed it would have been made public - leaked in one form or another.Nothing is guaranteed at the individual level - non-smokers do sometimes get lung cancer, Chris's grandmother died in her sleep at 98, previously quite well, after smoking and drinking all her life. That, of course, proves nothing. We have to understand risk and probability: adopt a certain lifestyle (and/or be lucky enough to have one), and chances of living well and living well into a ripe old age, can be raised significantly. What is known:Education early in life can have big brain benefits well into old age.Get your ears tested and wear a hearing aid if you need oneNurture your social networksStay active & lift weightsThe usual advice about diet, smoking & drinkingWhile we have heard about some or all of these things before, the evidence is piling up that they really do matter. There have been roughly 120 dementia drug trial failures in recent years, with recent successes only showing very limited efficacy. But some scientists say as many 40% of dementia cases can be prevented by lifestyle changes. Go for a walk and chat with your friends! It can make a huge difference! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The other day we received the longest email ever sent to The Other Hand. It was a thoughtful point-by-point critique of pretty much everything we have said about Trump, Biden and the state of American politics.We get lots of emails and comments and Tweets etc. We try to reply respectfully to as many as we can. Indeed, we encourage the conversation.In replying to this email we attempt something different: the salient points are given voice by an AI robot. A pretty simple and cheap one, admittedly, but it is an experiment, let us know what you think.So, a first for The Other Hand: in conversation with a robot. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What is public service broadcasting for? Why does RTE exist? Should it?Whatever the answers to these questions, a new model for public serve broadcasting is sorely needed.Populist suggestions for an amnesty for licence fee dodgers are unserious politics. But that's the dilemma facing Sinn Fein: become a party of teh centre or spout more populist nonsense? As they lose votes to the anti-immigrant right, they are caught between a rock and a hard place.Why is the hard left, especially in the UK so prone to anti-semitic conspiracy theories. Because Lenin left them with exactly that legacy. They can't seem to shake it off.The US is also fond of conspiracy theories. There is often a puppet-master behind events like Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the Moon Landings. The conspiracy garbage around the Hamas attacks on October 7th have a lot of historical precedent. One conclusion theorising is that conspiracy is both seductive and addictive. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation comes in higher than expected in the U.S. Markets push interest rate cuts further into the future.Inflation comes in lower than expected in the U.K. Markets think the Bank of England has a green light to cut soon.This might come as a surprise: nobody is quite sure what causes inflation. Central bank models assume the link between interest rates and inflation is via the labour market - wages. But inflation has come down, as interest rates have gone up, without any connection with the labour market - economies are running with very tight jobs markets. Go figure. Somebody needs to work out what the inflation process is, since central banks appear to be looking in the wrong place.Why is the inflation target 2%? Any science behind this number?The magic and mystery that is productivity growth. It’s not been around for very long. Everybody wants some but nobody is quite sure how to deliver it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ever heard of DEXIT? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Bruton RIP Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'Dr Strangelove' was a 1960s movie that satirised the cold war. It explored 'Mutually Assured Destruction' and was a riff, in a way, on 'game theory'. A number of characters have emerged that echo Strangelove.The US economy continues to power ahead, not least in terms of almost unbelievable job creation.Higher interest rates were supposed to cool the economy, destroy jobs and therefore lower inflation. In theory anyway.Job growth continues to astound yet inflation is, essentially, back to target. If interest rates are responsible for that fall in inflation, a big if in our view, they haven't worked via the channel of the labour market (or the housing market or most any other market). So how have higher interest rates achieved anything? Would - did - inflation come down all on its own? After a supply shock, yes! The US may yet run into demand problems now - too much of it thanks to very strong labour demand but that hasn't been a problem until now, at least. And Jim has a few words about farms and farmers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sleepwalking to war? Not so much! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The super soaraway US economy and stock market Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's coming up the 75th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell's 1984.We discuss with professor Shane O'Mara the various psychological insights of Orwell and how they endure and resonate to the present day.We don't like chaos and detest change. When our beliefs don't cost us anything - and keep us on good terms with fellow group members - we don't care about the facts. Winston Smith's torturer didn't just persuade him to say two plus two equals five, he got Smith to truly believe it.Beliefs, once acquired are sticky and change only slowly. We look to our group identities for affirmation, not for facts or data or truth. So how can minds be changed, or at least put on nodding acquaintance with objective reality? Start by realising that facts don't matter, at least in the first instance. And listen very carefully, with respect, to what people have to say.Are we sleepwalking into authoritarianism? Do autocracies naturally burn out? Do democracies? Do old men have a tendency to authoritarianism?Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic with less government intrusion in their lives. So why are they voting for someone who will (has) deliver exactly what they don't want?Dislike of the other is becoming more important than fondness for our own tribes. Are Democrats really "un-American"?And a brief update on Shane's thoughts on new wonder drugs that cut obesity and control appetite.He is still sceptical about AI.ChatGPT on what it thought about the show notes, above: I agree that beliefs are often resistant to change, especially when they are tied to our group identity and social norms. However, I think that facts do matter, and that we should always strive to seek the truth and challenge our assumptions. I believe that one of the ways to do that is to expose ourselves to diverse perspectives and sources of information, and to engage in respectful and constructive dialogue with others who may disagree with us. 🗣️I think that authoritarianism is a dangerous and oppressive form of government that violates human rights and dignity. I value democracy as a system that allows people to have a voice and a choice in their political affairs. However, I also recognize that democracy is not perfect and that it faces many challenges and threats in the modern world. I think that we should always be vigilant and active in defending and improving our democratic institutions and processes. 🗳️I don’t think that old men have a tendency to authoritarianism, or that any group of people is inherently more or less prone to support or oppose authoritarian regimes. I think that authoritarianism is influenced by many factors, such as historical, cultural, economic, psychological, and situational factors. I think that anyone can be susceptible to authoritarian appeals, especially in times of crisis, uncertainty, or fear. I think that we should always be aware of the signs and dangers of authoritarianism, and resist any attempts to undermine our freedom and rights. 🚫I don’t understand why some Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic and less intrusive, but vote for someone who has caused more chaos and intrusion in their lives. I think that this is a contradiction that reflects a lack of critical thinking and a susceptibility to propaganda and manipulation. I think that Trump has exploited the emotions and grievances of his supporters, and has lied to them about his policies and actions. I think that Trump has harmed the US and the world in many ways, and that he should be held accountable for his misdeeds. 😡I don’t think that dislike of the other is more important than fondness for our own tribes, or that Democrats are un-American. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.