The Other Hand

Inflation falls in the UK but *only* to 2.3%. Cue weeping and wailing and much hot air. The narcissism of small differences.Does anybody know what really causes inflation? Does the ECB understand the connection (or lack of) between interest rates and inflation? The human aspects of all this are often lost in dry discussions of monetary policy and inflation. But the human dimension is real, big and too often ignored by central banks. Nvidia, AI, data centres and the nuttiness of stock markets.Housing policy contains asymmetrical risks: building too few is much more dangerous than building too many. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Opinion polls on both sides of the Atlantic tell fascinating stories. Sinn Fein has lost momentum. Have they peaked too soon? Rishi Sunak's Tories are now polling at lower levels that the nadir of Liz Truss' government. That really is some going. Trump breaks wind audibly in court, hears stories about his sexual peccadillos and goes up in the polls.It is said that SF are suffering because 'they have let their electorate down because of immigration'. Right wing parties everywhere, including Ireland, are on the rise because of the immigration issue. Yet right wing governments in power in the UK and Italy show how hard - impossible even - 'solving' immigration is. Is it really true that immigrants take jobs? Spoiler alert: no. What are SF's actual policies? Are they like the UK's Labour party, a policy-free zone? Long on promises, short on what they will do?We are almost certainly still filling our cars with Russian fuel.China and Russia deepen ties. China enables the Russian war machine. China has the best batteries.Global stock markets continue to tell us: 'don't worry, be happy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We might need 80,000 new houses a year - or we might not. It all depends on so many imponderables.One of them being the level of immigration. We now see that everywhere as a problem to be solved. Is it solvable?Biden is trying to keep cheap Chinese electronic vehicles out of the US. Europe is thinking about doing the same. That's all to protect domestic car manufacturers who don't know how to produce cheap EVs. The Chinese do. We are repeating the mistakes of the 1970s when Japanese car manufacturers figured out how to make cars that consumers want. Western car companies, by and large, didn't know why production techniques that dated from the 1930s were no longer fit for purpose.Solution: copy Chinese IP! They've been doing it to us for years. Return the favour! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The State the UK is in & much more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with Professor of Experimental Brain Research, Shane O'Mara.Robert Kennedy Junior says a worm has eaten part of his brain. Is this possible? Yes - but his 'brain fog' and other symptoms could have been caused by something else. Partly eaten or not, his possible brain injuries are not likely to have led to a predisposition to conspiracy theories. RFK is a prominent anti-vaxxer, for instance.Why do so many of us fall for conspiracy theories? Belonging, group hugs and tribalism are part of the answer. We take cognitive short cuts that help us ignore objective reality.Anti-vaxxers have, in some cases, just forgotten what disease looks like. Shane reminds us of the actual cheer that went around the world when the polio vaccine was first announced.Lots of protests are around at the moment. Protest is a uniquely human behaviour - why bother when so few protests actually elicit change? Generally, they don't work. It's that group hug thing again. The "collective effervescence" of being part of a crowd.All this and more in another conversation with the brain expert!Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology and Institute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin,D02 PN40, IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizza Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The economic consequences of the war in Gaza have so far been very limited. The oil price has been well-behaved, all things considered.But that war is shaping up to be a forever war. That's the logical conclusion that flows from observing two sides committed to the other's destruction. If the war costs Biden the election then another logical conclusion is that the great Bidenomics experiment is over. There is a lot of doubt about the fiscal sustainability of Biden's economic program but not enough recognition is given to its phenomenal success.We discuss the incredibly hard hitting article by Martin Wolf that lays out how the US is heading for despotism and how we are, indeed, all heading for disaster if Trump is elected. It's scary stuff.Everything is connected to everything else. Macron really is right. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Unemployment edges up on both sides of the Atlantic - things are definitely showing early signs of slowing down.Whatever the outlook there are very good reasons to quietly ditch the 2% inflation targets that apply to the FED, BoE and ECB - particularly in the US, too much harm will be caused by a drive to 2%. Quietly adopt 3% inflation targets and get on with interest rate cuts. That 2% number was plucked out of thin air in the first place, decades ago, and has outlasted its usefulness.Rishi Sunak came to office promising much and delivering next to nothing. His political skills are next to non-existent. A strange thing to say about a Prime Minister. But he staked his premiership - and electoral chances - on a target that not enough people care about and a target that he couldn't meet. A more skilled politician would have asked 'what do most voters actually want?'. He asked the bat-shit crazy wing of the Tory Party that question and, surprise surprise, got a bat-shit crazy answer.Emmanuel Macron is right: unless Europe rearms, Putin will wage war on us. He already is - it will just get nastier and closer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The border never went away you know. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A packed podcast:It may be the ultimate social faux pas, but dare we say the latest Revenue annual report contains a wealth of fascinating data?Back taxes owed by SMEs could be - maybe are - a real problemShort-termism: anyone wondering why some companies and countries don't inest enough in themselves need look no further than META's (Facebook) results this week. The shares tanked because the tech giant announced a huge capital spending program (mostly in AI). Financial markets want one thing only: instant gratification. That translates as "show us the cash". Dividends, share buybacks and increases in revenues are the golden trifecta that leads to higher share prices. But investment means spending cash. That's the big no-no. The paradox, of course, is that the only thing that leads to long-term growth in dividends, share buybacks and revenues is investment. Companies and countries that stint on investment don't grow. You couldn't make it up.If (hopefully a big if) another European war is on the way, is being a member of the EU and remaining neutral mutually inconsistent?And all the latest data! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Irish government has released its latest assessment of where the economy is heading. It looks like. a forlorn attempt to dampen expectations ahead of another giveaway budget in a few months time. The last before the general election.The golden goose will someday stop laying its eggs. What will future generations think of us, what we did the largesses generously donated by the multinational tax boom? Will we be 'grateful Norwegians', now rich because they saved their windfall taxes (from oil). Or will we resemble the 'morose British' who blew all their windfall oil taxes on what?Is there much more capacity for extra housebuilding than is conventionally thought?Will house prices ever fall to 'affordable' levels, even with extra supply. Or were houses just 'the wrong price' a generation ago?Chris takes the other side of the IMF forecast bets: we are approaching peak short term growth optimism and the IMF is way too pessimistic about the medium term At least Ireland has a fiscal debate grounded in arithmetic. The UK's fiscal conversation is total hokum.And all the latest economic data Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wing nuts are in charge? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest opinion polls - and a bit of political crystal ball gazing - points to no one party getting more than 30% of the vote at the upcoming Irish general election.Why is that and what might it mean? Will Ireland 'Go Dutch' (or Belgian...)? Are we in for weeks or even months of prolonged coalition negotiations?The deteriorating geopolitical situation might give voters pause for thought about the sort of politicians they want. As talk of WW3 gets louder, will Ireland want to be led by SF?What is for sure is that SF policies will be subject to forensic scrutiny - unlike last time.Ban Tik Tok? Chinese Communist Party or Elon Musk - who is the better owner of social media companies? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Initial financial market reaction to big events is often wrong Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

More thoughts on the. Economics of Irish reunification Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Professor Edgar Morgenroth has recently published a joint paper with professor John Fitzgerald that takes a deep dive into the potential costs of Irish reunification.We talk to Edgar about his work. We look at lessons from german reunification and the asumptions behind his estimates that it could cost the Irish taxpayer a lot of money. And a lot of sweat and tears.Planning will be essential. Bad outcomes after ill thought out referendums have historical precedent. Brexit for instance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Watch the oil price Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish and Eurozone inflation falls again - what is the ECB waiting for?In the US, the super soaraway economy is dashing hopes of quick rate cuts . Perhaps any rate cuts. We need to remind ourselves that this is a good thing. Will the earthquake in Taiwan create another supply shock? We think not but it is worth watching. So are oil prices worth close monitoring.Preparing for war on islands just off Taiwan.Is the EV craze cresting?Why do some US Republicans believe anything that Putin says?We look at the history of civilian casualties during wartime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One of the first thing that economists are taught is the Free Trade is a Good Thing. One thing that economists don't speak too much about is that free trade creates both winners and losers. Arguably, not nearly enough attention has been paid to the losers.Whether or free trade is always a net positive depends on many factors. And the alternatives to free trade - the choices made by politicians about things like protectionism - can be even worse. That said, China's accession to the World Trade Organisation was a huge shock and wiped out huge swathes of manufacturing industry and jobs throughout the developed world. Too much too soon seems have been the case. Those left behind communities became the hunting ground for Trump, Brexiteers and populists. They stil are - and there is a distinct possibility of a second China shock coming our way. What will be the results this time?Irish SMEs complain about government inspired costs and regulatory burdens. Are they right to moan? A lot of SMEs are either failing or in danger of going bust.Interest rates: the new normal isn't too far away from where they are now. Discuss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leading journalist Sarah Carey talks to Jim and Chris about Leo Varadkar's departure and Simon Harris' accession.'Harris needs to be much more than a good communicator'. The big test, one of many, will be his choice of cabinet. That will signal whether genuine change is on the way. 'The reshuffle will tell us if Harris is serious'Will any exiting FG TDs be tempted back?Why are so many voices of the centre so scared to speak up?Why do 'progressives' oppose building anything?Harris should ban his party from social media.Mainstream media ( we are looking at you Fintan and Una) is as responsible as Sinn Fein for painting Ireland as a failed state. All of the evidence, with full acknowledgement of all of the problems, shows emphatically that Ireland is the opposite of a dystopian hell hole.Sinn Fein have peaked. The electorate is waking up to the fact that they offer slogan without solutions. The ones to watch are the independents. Maybe some of them should be tempted into government via ministerial appointments - but only if they join the Party.Politicians take all of the blame and none of the credit. It's a cruel and thankless gig. Maybe FG need a spell in opposition? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global growth showing signs of acceleration Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets are telling us to stop worrying Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A packed podcast!For the past year or so we have been noticing weakness in Irish exports, particularly pharmaceuticals and one or two other key areas. Falling exports were a big driver of the Irish 'recession' last year.At least part of this was Covid related and the fall represented payback for the massive boost arising from exports of vaccine and other health related products during the pandemic. It's only one month's data, so shouldn't be over-interpreted, but latest numbers hint at two things. First, normalisation of exports may be close. Second, as the quintessential small open economy, Ireland is a bell-weather for the world economy. Maybe there is a hint of global trade and global growth picking up.Maybe the U.S. won’t cut rates at all this year?Irish inflation continues its fall.Oil prices edging up again. China - the one economy where we cannot talk about a positive growth surprise.interest rates at current levels are maybe the new normal?Macron’e Ukrainian epiphanyJim disappears down the crypto rabbit hole Happy St Patrick’s day! Ireland’s soft power is worth billions. Only idiots begrudge its exercise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everybody in financial markets is starting to ask: is this another bubble, a near quarter century after the dot.com crash? Are those comparisons with 1999/2000 valid or is the AI boom for real? What does AI think of the AI 'bubble'?The UK ends its mild recession but lots of workers are going on the sick - the long term sick. This could be a real problem for growth prospects.The Central Bank of Ireland forecasts a robust irish economy and muses about workers shifting from building offices to constructing houses. If so, that's good news.The people of `Ireland have given two fingers to the political establishment. Patronise the electorate at your peril. Could Sinn Fein be the big loser from the referendum debacle? Another European lurch to the right, this time in Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All the latest economic data Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All the latest economic news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the numbers, the Irish economy is in recession - but is it?Talking to one segment of the Irish diaspora - what do they think of their host country? And their thoughts on Ireland.European inflation comes in at 2.6% vs 2.5% expected. How awful. "The incumbent government is deeply unpopular with younger voters because NIMBY older voters are allowed to block all development" Which country is described in this quote? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Current opinion polls are pointing towards another coalition government. How long would those coalition negotiations take? Would a prolonged period of no government be a bad thing for business and the economy?Are banks making too much money? If so, what is the right remedy? Tax those profits? Break them up to force competition? Encourage Fintech new entrants?Irish jobs at a record high. A truly remarkable story.2nd anniversary of the Ukraine war. Many are in denial but Russia is on the advance and Cold War 2 is well underway. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

House prices rise in Ireland - - for the fourth month is a row? How come? Plenty of buyers is the simple answer. It seems that higher interest rates don't work in the way they used to. Do they even work at all?Speaking of interest rates, the prominent economist who got the US - and global - inflation story right, and therefore the interest rate story right, is musing about the possibility that the next move in US rates might have to be up. That's right, up. If true - and it's only an outside chance at this stage - this will have ramifications for all financial markets and economies. Maybe even house prices. There again, maybe not.Executive pay - winner takes all in a system that is so obviously rigged it could turn anyone into a lefty revolutionary.Westminster doesn't work. It is a Trifecta of dysfunction - we talked about this before the latest nonsense erupted!Russian forces are on the advance in Ukraine. It doesn't look good.Jim is asked how it feels to be replaced by a robot! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A lawyer - a 'special prosecutor' - recently caused a furore with an allegation about Joe Biden's 'cognitive decline'In conversation with Professor of neuroscience Shane O'Mara we explore the mysteries of ageing and the emerging evidence about how to maximise our chances of becoming a 'Super Ager'That lawyer shouldn't have tried to diagnose Biden. Nor should any non-specialist. There are strict criteria for that sort of thing. There is no publicly available evidence that suggests Biden meets those criteria. A speculation: these days, all things considered, if that evidence existed it would have been made public - leaked in one form or another.Nothing is guaranteed at the individual level - non-smokers do sometimes get lung cancer, Chris's grandmother died in her sleep at 98, previously quite well, after smoking and drinking all her life. That, of course, proves nothing. We have to understand risk and probability: adopt a certain lifestyle (and/or be lucky enough to have one), and chances of living well and living well into a ripe old age, can be raised significantly. What is known:Education early in life can have big brain benefits well into old age.Get your ears tested and wear a hearing aid if you need oneNurture your social networksStay active & lift weightsThe usual advice about diet, smoking & drinkingWhile we have heard about some or all of these things before, the evidence is piling up that they really do matter. There have been roughly 120 dementia drug trial failures in recent years, with recent successes only showing very limited efficacy. But some scientists say as many 40% of dementia cases can be prevented by lifestyle changes. Go for a walk and chat with your friends! It can make a huge difference! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The other day we received the longest email ever sent to The Other Hand. It was a thoughtful point-by-point critique of pretty much everything we have said about Trump, Biden and the state of American politics.We get lots of emails and comments and Tweets etc. We try to reply respectfully to as many as we can. Indeed, we encourage the conversation.In replying to this email we attempt something different: the salient points are given voice by an AI robot. A pretty simple and cheap one, admittedly, but it is an experiment, let us know what you think.So, a first for The Other Hand: in conversation with a robot. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What is public service broadcasting for? Why does RTE exist? Should it?Whatever the answers to these questions, a new model for public serve broadcasting is sorely needed.Populist suggestions for an amnesty for licence fee dodgers are unserious politics. But that's the dilemma facing Sinn Fein: become a party of teh centre or spout more populist nonsense? As they lose votes to the anti-immigrant right, they are caught between a rock and a hard place.Why is the hard left, especially in the UK so prone to anti-semitic conspiracy theories. Because Lenin left them with exactly that legacy. They can't seem to shake it off.The US is also fond of conspiracy theories. There is often a puppet-master behind events like Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the Moon Landings. The conspiracy garbage around the Hamas attacks on October 7th have a lot of historical precedent. One conclusion theorising is that conspiracy is both seductive and addictive. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation comes in higher than expected in the U.S. Markets push interest rate cuts further into the future.Inflation comes in lower than expected in the U.K. Markets think the Bank of England has a green light to cut soon.This might come as a surprise: nobody is quite sure what causes inflation. Central bank models assume the link between interest rates and inflation is via the labour market - wages. But inflation has come down, as interest rates have gone up, without any connection with the labour market - economies are running with very tight jobs markets. Go figure. Somebody needs to work out what the inflation process is, since central banks appear to be looking in the wrong place.Why is the inflation target 2%? Any science behind this number?The magic and mystery that is productivity growth. It’s not been around for very long. Everybody wants some but nobody is quite sure how to deliver it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ever heard of DEXIT? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Bruton RIP Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'Dr Strangelove' was a 1960s movie that satirised the cold war. It explored 'Mutually Assured Destruction' and was a riff, in a way, on 'game theory'. A number of characters have emerged that echo Strangelove.The US economy continues to power ahead, not least in terms of almost unbelievable job creation.Higher interest rates were supposed to cool the economy, destroy jobs and therefore lower inflation. In theory anyway.Job growth continues to astound yet inflation is, essentially, back to target. If interest rates are responsible for that fall in inflation, a big if in our view, they haven't worked via the channel of the labour market (or the housing market or most any other market). So how have higher interest rates achieved anything? Would - did - inflation come down all on its own? After a supply shock, yes! The US may yet run into demand problems now - too much of it thanks to very strong labour demand but that hasn't been a problem until now, at least. And Jim has a few words about farms and farmers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sleepwalking to war? Not so much! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The super soaraway US economy and stock market Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's coming up the 75th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell's 1984.We discuss with professor Shane O'Mara the various psychological insights of Orwell and how they endure and resonate to the present day.We don't like chaos and detest change. When our beliefs don't cost us anything - and keep us on good terms with fellow group members - we don't care about the facts. Winston Smith's torturer didn't just persuade him to say two plus two equals five, he got Smith to truly believe it.Beliefs, once acquired are sticky and change only slowly. We look to our group identities for affirmation, not for facts or data or truth. So how can minds be changed, or at least put on nodding acquaintance with objective reality? Start by realising that facts don't matter, at least in the first instance. And listen very carefully, with respect, to what people have to say.Are we sleepwalking into authoritarianism? Do autocracies naturally burn out? Do democracies? Do old men have a tendency to authoritarianism?Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic with less government intrusion in their lives. So why are they voting for someone who will (has) deliver exactly what they don't want?Dislike of the other is becoming more important than fondness for our own tribes. Are Democrats really "un-American"?And a brief update on Shane's thoughts on new wonder drugs that cut obesity and control appetite.He is still sceptical about AI.ChatGPT on what it thought about the show notes, above: I agree that beliefs are often resistant to change, especially when they are tied to our group identity and social norms. However, I think that facts do matter, and that we should always strive to seek the truth and challenge our assumptions. I believe that one of the ways to do that is to expose ourselves to diverse perspectives and sources of information, and to engage in respectful and constructive dialogue with others who may disagree with us. 🗣️I think that authoritarianism is a dangerous and oppressive form of government that violates human rights and dignity. I value democracy as a system that allows people to have a voice and a choice in their political affairs. However, I also recognize that democracy is not perfect and that it faces many challenges and threats in the modern world. I think that we should always be vigilant and active in defending and improving our democratic institutions and processes. 🗳️I don’t think that old men have a tendency to authoritarianism, or that any group of people is inherently more or less prone to support or oppose authoritarian regimes. I think that authoritarianism is influenced by many factors, such as historical, cultural, economic, psychological, and situational factors. I think that anyone can be susceptible to authoritarian appeals, especially in times of crisis, uncertainty, or fear. I think that we should always be aware of the signs and dangers of authoritarianism, and resist any attempts to undermine our freedom and rights. 🚫I don’t understand why some Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic and less intrusive, but vote for someone who has caused more chaos and intrusion in their lives. I think that this is a contradiction that reflects a lack of critical thinking and a susceptibility to propaganda and manipulation. I think that Trump has exploited the emotions and grievances of his supporters, and has lied to them about his policies and actions. I think that Trump has harmed the US and the world in many ways, and that he should be held accountable for his misdeeds. 😡I don’t think that dislike of the other is more important than fondness for our own tribes, or that Democrats are un-American. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'The Bitter lessons of Brexit'. We all fervently wish that Brexit has gone away. It hasn't. It's more like a slow moving chronic disease but it is sill an infection for the economy and the UK at large. It's going to stay that way.Was Darwin wrong? Could evolution go into reverse? Evidence of Homo Sapiens losing their backbone are everywhere, especially in Washington DC. De Santis demonises Trump and then endorses him. The Don has a new best friend.Yeats comes to mind: Turning and turning in the widening gyre   The falcon cannot hear the falconer;Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   The ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worst   Are full of passionate intensity.Surely some revelation is at hand;Surely the Second Coming is at hand.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump is ahead in he polls and could be the next leader of the free world. He has promised to be a 'dictator for a day' Will it be the catastrophe that most seem to expect? Is everything he says wrong?Are liberals the ones who have created the conditions for the global march of right-wing populism?Immigration is the big controversy everywhere. Nobody is debating it rationally. We give it a try.Ireland says no. To Wind farms, solar farms, tall buildings, any buildings, data centres and immigrants. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest trade data for Ireland suggest exports are struggling - for the first prolonged period in quite a while. That points to a world trade slowdown - and generalised economic weakness everywhere (apart from the US). Irish GDP could well shrink in 2024 if this continues - for the second year in a row.Inflation surprising to the upside is now a more-or-less global phenomenon after much bigger than expected falls through 2023. Is the last mile on inflation reduction going to be really hard?A lot depends on energy prices. Notwithstanding the trouble in the Red Sea, oil prices are easing back again. As are natural gas prices. If that continues then all will be well with inflation and interest rates will fall this year, albeit maybe a bit later than mortgage holders would like. If oil prices spike, all bets are off.Trump's coalition of supporters is expanding to include the educated (graduates) young. That's new, Why do so many Americans think that life is getting worse when the facts speak otherwise. Why are narratives at such variance with reality? Facts and data just ain't what they used to be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Low or no economic growth is a bigger problem than most people realise.What we don't know about growth might surprise you.Too many country's are losing interest in growth. Not Ireland - yet. But unless growth is nurtured it will be quick to disappear. And there are plenty of warning signs on the horizon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China wants Taiwan on the same terms that it took Hong Kong. 'One country two systems'. A bargain that Xi Jingping failed to honour. No wonder most Taiwanese are suspicious.Taiwan's upcoming Presidential election merits close attention. There probably isn't a 'good' outcome. Just ones that hasten or defer a potential confrontation.Latest inflation data, for end 2023, has generally disappointed. We still think inflation will continue to fall and central banks risk cutting rates too slowly.Ireland is drowning in cash - booming tax revenues - but lacks strategic fiscal direction. It's raining, so why salt money into a rainy day fund. Health, infrastructure, law & order and the environment are all crying out for resources. Instead, populist giveaways are the order of the day, whether from the government or opposition parties.The biggest fiscal threat facing Ireland is the unsustainability of booming corporate tax revenues. One way to deal with this is to boost the domestic side of the economy, especially SMEs. Ireland needs an IDA-type organisation to replicate the success of the real IDA with domestic firms. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How many centrist political parties does Ireland need? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another year of forecasts, mostly wrong. And another season for making forecasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over 100 countries will have elections of one kind or another during 2024. Some analysts think that will be the largest number in history. A lot of those elections could be very consequential.We start the year with Taiwanese elections - the outcome could well provoke China, widely thought to be preparing for a possible war by the end of the decade.We end with the possible return of Trump. How bad could that be? Unimaginably bad. The Colorado Supreme Court made a last dict stand for democracy but the Trump-stuffed Supreme Court in DC knows which side its bread is buttered.As well as a large number of elections, we observe a large number of wars. A secure job occupation for youngsters would be a drone operator. That could be a job for life and one that survives any upcoming European war.The Shinners reinvent economic policy: they want to drive huge numbers of recent mortgagees into negative equity. Fantasy economics will not deter the fans of Ireland's extremists. Every Western country these days has to prove Putin is right in at least one thing: we truly are all decadent. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The IDA's annual report on companies supported by them shows tech job losses. This is consistent with Ireland's external trade data - although the latter remains heavily distorted by post-pandemic return to normal for pharmaceutical exports.Three central banks met this week. All left interest rates unchanged but delivered very different messages. Members of the Federal Reserve's rate setting committee explicitly forecast US rate cuts next year. At a time when the US economy remains in rude health, is growing strongly and the labour market remains very tight.The Bank of England and the ECB both said it is far too early to be even thinking about rate cuts, despite weak economies. Three BoE rate setting headbangers even voted for rate hikes!At least one of these central banks is going to be wrong. Probably all of them. All we are prepared to predict is that your mortgage and other borrowing costs are likely to change next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim returns from Canada and stresses the scope for improved economic & business ties with Ireland.Inflation is coming down but the world's central banks are poised to to do battle with the markets and disabuse them of their assumptions about rapid interest rate cuts next year. Falling interest rate expectations have helped some mortgage rates to ease, especially in the US and UK. House prices have reacted in time honoured fashion and are showing signs of rising again.Is the great house price correction, so desired by so many people, over before it got going?Could the world economy be stabilising and 2024 prospects improving - contrary to most forecasts?What is wrong with Rishi Sunak? How can a man so smart - and decent - get it so badly wrong? One answer: he doesn't get politics. Which is a bit strange for a Prime Minister. In particular, his business background means he believes that reasonable people can be negotiated with. You don't meet too many ideological wing-nuts in hedge -fund land - at least not ones who survive for very long. Sunak's mistake is to assume that his fractious, hard-right colleagues can be bargained with. Whatever they are given, whatever he concedes, it is never enough.The West is failing Ukraine. Putin could now win. And he won't stop at Ukraine. A new European war could be the result. That's not just tragic for Ukraine but also for our sons and daughters who will be asked to fight that war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin.Novo Nordisk has become Europe's largest, most valuable, company on the back of some new weight-loss drugs.Is the hype justified?It's early days but the preliminary evidence is an emphatic yes!There are familiar caveats: potential side effects and cost.But these drugs do seem to work.And not just for weight loss - this is where it gets more speculative/preliminary but there are hints that the drugs' effects on the brain could have some positive benefits for other types of addictions, not just those involving food.Maybe we should just all buy the shares? (This is not an investing tipping podcast!!!)Will the producers of ultra processed foods go the way of tobacco companies?Could these drugs even help us survive Christmas (this really is at the highly speculative/no data end of the spectrum :))Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology andInstitute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin, D02 PN40,IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizza Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim shares his impressions of the state of Irish-Canada relations during a tour of the major east coast cities.Also in the frame: latest Exchequer returns and GDP data. Boom and bust in a week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.