The Other Hand

Global growth showing signs of acceleration Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets are telling us to stop worrying Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A packed podcast!For the past year or so we have been noticing weakness in Irish exports, particularly pharmaceuticals and one or two other key areas. Falling exports were a big driver of the Irish 'recession' last year.At least part of this was Covid related and the fall represented payback for the massive boost arising from exports of vaccine and other health related products during the pandemic. It's only one month's data, so shouldn't be over-interpreted, but latest numbers hint at two things. First, normalisation of exports may be close. Second, as the quintessential small open economy, Ireland is a bell-weather for the world economy. Maybe there is a hint of global trade and global growth picking up.Maybe the U.S. won’t cut rates at all this year?Irish inflation continues its fall.Oil prices edging up again. China - the one economy where we cannot talk about a positive growth surprise.interest rates at current levels are maybe the new normal?Macron’e Ukrainian epiphanyJim disappears down the crypto rabbit hole Happy St Patrick’s day! Ireland’s soft power is worth billions. Only idiots begrudge its exercise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everybody in financial markets is starting to ask: is this another bubble, a near quarter century after the dot.com crash? Are those comparisons with 1999/2000 valid or is the AI boom for real? What does AI think of the AI 'bubble'?The UK ends its mild recession but lots of workers are going on the sick - the long term sick. This could be a real problem for growth prospects.The Central Bank of Ireland forecasts a robust irish economy and muses about workers shifting from building offices to constructing houses. If so, that's good news.The people of `Ireland have given two fingers to the political establishment. Patronise the electorate at your peril. Could Sinn Fein be the big loser from the referendum debacle? Another European lurch to the right, this time in Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All the latest economic data Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All the latest economic news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the numbers, the Irish economy is in recession - but is it?Talking to one segment of the Irish diaspora - what do they think of their host country? And their thoughts on Ireland.European inflation comes in at 2.6% vs 2.5% expected. How awful. "The incumbent government is deeply unpopular with younger voters because NIMBY older voters are allowed to block all development" Which country is described in this quote? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Current opinion polls are pointing towards another coalition government. How long would those coalition negotiations take? Would a prolonged period of no government be a bad thing for business and the economy?Are banks making too much money? If so, what is the right remedy? Tax those profits? Break them up to force competition? Encourage Fintech new entrants?Irish jobs at a record high. A truly remarkable story.2nd anniversary of the Ukraine war. Many are in denial but Russia is on the advance and Cold War 2 is well underway. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

House prices rise in Ireland - - for the fourth month is a row? How come? Plenty of buyers is the simple answer. It seems that higher interest rates don't work in the way they used to. Do they even work at all?Speaking of interest rates, the prominent economist who got the US - and global - inflation story right, and therefore the interest rate story right, is musing about the possibility that the next move in US rates might have to be up. That's right, up. If true - and it's only an outside chance at this stage - this will have ramifications for all financial markets and economies. Maybe even house prices. There again, maybe not.Executive pay - winner takes all in a system that is so obviously rigged it could turn anyone into a lefty revolutionary.Westminster doesn't work. It is a Trifecta of dysfunction - we talked about this before the latest nonsense erupted!Russian forces are on the advance in Ukraine. It doesn't look good.Jim is asked how it feels to be replaced by a robot! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A lawyer - a 'special prosecutor' - recently caused a furore with an allegation about Joe Biden's 'cognitive decline'In conversation with Professor of neuroscience Shane O'Mara we explore the mysteries of ageing and the emerging evidence about how to maximise our chances of becoming a 'Super Ager'That lawyer shouldn't have tried to diagnose Biden. Nor should any non-specialist. There are strict criteria for that sort of thing. There is no publicly available evidence that suggests Biden meets those criteria. A speculation: these days, all things considered, if that evidence existed it would have been made public - leaked in one form or another.Nothing is guaranteed at the individual level - non-smokers do sometimes get lung cancer, Chris's grandmother died in her sleep at 98, previously quite well, after smoking and drinking all her life. That, of course, proves nothing. We have to understand risk and probability: adopt a certain lifestyle (and/or be lucky enough to have one), and chances of living well and living well into a ripe old age, can be raised significantly. What is known:Education early in life can have big brain benefits well into old age.Get your ears tested and wear a hearing aid if you need oneNurture your social networksStay active & lift weightsThe usual advice about diet, smoking & drinkingWhile we have heard about some or all of these things before, the evidence is piling up that they really do matter. There have been roughly 120 dementia drug trial failures in recent years, with recent successes only showing very limited efficacy. But some scientists say as many 40% of dementia cases can be prevented by lifestyle changes. Go for a walk and chat with your friends! It can make a huge difference! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The other day we received the longest email ever sent to The Other Hand. It was a thoughtful point-by-point critique of pretty much everything we have said about Trump, Biden and the state of American politics.We get lots of emails and comments and Tweets etc. We try to reply respectfully to as many as we can. Indeed, we encourage the conversation.In replying to this email we attempt something different: the salient points are given voice by an AI robot. A pretty simple and cheap one, admittedly, but it is an experiment, let us know what you think.So, a first for The Other Hand: in conversation with a robot. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What is public service broadcasting for? Why does RTE exist? Should it?Whatever the answers to these questions, a new model for public serve broadcasting is sorely needed.Populist suggestions for an amnesty for licence fee dodgers are unserious politics. But that's the dilemma facing Sinn Fein: become a party of teh centre or spout more populist nonsense? As they lose votes to the anti-immigrant right, they are caught between a rock and a hard place.Why is the hard left, especially in the UK so prone to anti-semitic conspiracy theories. Because Lenin left them with exactly that legacy. They can't seem to shake it off.The US is also fond of conspiracy theories. There is often a puppet-master behind events like Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the Moon Landings. The conspiracy garbage around the Hamas attacks on October 7th have a lot of historical precedent. One conclusion theorising is that conspiracy is both seductive and addictive. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation comes in higher than expected in the U.S. Markets push interest rate cuts further into the future.Inflation comes in lower than expected in the U.K. Markets think the Bank of England has a green light to cut soon.This might come as a surprise: nobody is quite sure what causes inflation. Central bank models assume the link between interest rates and inflation is via the labour market - wages. But inflation has come down, as interest rates have gone up, without any connection with the labour market - economies are running with very tight jobs markets. Go figure. Somebody needs to work out what the inflation process is, since central banks appear to be looking in the wrong place.Why is the inflation target 2%? Any science behind this number?The magic and mystery that is productivity growth. It’s not been around for very long. Everybody wants some but nobody is quite sure how to deliver it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ever heard of DEXIT? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Bruton RIP Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'Dr Strangelove' was a 1960s movie that satirised the cold war. It explored 'Mutually Assured Destruction' and was a riff, in a way, on 'game theory'. A number of characters have emerged that echo Strangelove.The US economy continues to power ahead, not least in terms of almost unbelievable job creation.Higher interest rates were supposed to cool the economy, destroy jobs and therefore lower inflation. In theory anyway.Job growth continues to astound yet inflation is, essentially, back to target. If interest rates are responsible for that fall in inflation, a big if in our view, they haven't worked via the channel of the labour market (or the housing market or most any other market). So how have higher interest rates achieved anything? Would - did - inflation come down all on its own? After a supply shock, yes! The US may yet run into demand problems now - too much of it thanks to very strong labour demand but that hasn't been a problem until now, at least. And Jim has a few words about farms and farmers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sleepwalking to war? Not so much! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The super soaraway US economy and stock market Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's coming up the 75th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell's 1984.We discuss with professor Shane O'Mara the various psychological insights of Orwell and how they endure and resonate to the present day.We don't like chaos and detest change. When our beliefs don't cost us anything - and keep us on good terms with fellow group members - we don't care about the facts. Winston Smith's torturer didn't just persuade him to say two plus two equals five, he got Smith to truly believe it.Beliefs, once acquired are sticky and change only slowly. We look to our group identities for affirmation, not for facts or data or truth. So how can minds be changed, or at least put on nodding acquaintance with objective reality? Start by realising that facts don't matter, at least in the first instance. And listen very carefully, with respect, to what people have to say.Are we sleepwalking into authoritarianism? Do autocracies naturally burn out? Do democracies? Do old men have a tendency to authoritarianism?Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic with less government intrusion in their lives. So why are they voting for someone who will (has) deliver exactly what they don't want?Dislike of the other is becoming more important than fondness for our own tribes. Are Democrats really "un-American"?And a brief update on Shane's thoughts on new wonder drugs that cut obesity and control appetite.He is still sceptical about AI.ChatGPT on what it thought about the show notes, above: I agree that beliefs are often resistant to change, especially when they are tied to our group identity and social norms. However, I think that facts do matter, and that we should always strive to seek the truth and challenge our assumptions. I believe that one of the ways to do that is to expose ourselves to diverse perspectives and sources of information, and to engage in respectful and constructive dialogue with others who may disagree with us. 🗣️I think that authoritarianism is a dangerous and oppressive form of government that violates human rights and dignity. I value democracy as a system that allows people to have a voice and a choice in their political affairs. However, I also recognize that democracy is not perfect and that it faces many challenges and threats in the modern world. I think that we should always be vigilant and active in defending and improving our democratic institutions and processes. 🗳️I don’t think that old men have a tendency to authoritarianism, or that any group of people is inherently more or less prone to support or oppose authoritarian regimes. I think that authoritarianism is influenced by many factors, such as historical, cultural, economic, psychological, and situational factors. I think that anyone can be susceptible to authoritarian appeals, especially in times of crisis, uncertainty, or fear. I think that we should always be aware of the signs and dangers of authoritarianism, and resist any attempts to undermine our freedom and rights. 🚫I don’t understand why some Trump voters say they want the US to become less chaotic and less intrusive, but vote for someone who has caused more chaos and intrusion in their lives. I think that this is a contradiction that reflects a lack of critical thinking and a susceptibility to propaganda and manipulation. I think that Trump has exploited the emotions and grievances of his supporters, and has lied to them about his policies and actions. I think that Trump has harmed the US and the world in many ways, and that he should be held accountable for his misdeeds. 😡I don’t think that dislike of the other is more important than fondness for our own tribes, or that Democrats are un-American. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'The Bitter lessons of Brexit'. We all fervently wish that Brexit has gone away. It hasn't. It's more like a slow moving chronic disease but it is sill an infection for the economy and the UK at large. It's going to stay that way.Was Darwin wrong? Could evolution go into reverse? Evidence of Homo Sapiens losing their backbone are everywhere, especially in Washington DC. De Santis demonises Trump and then endorses him. The Don has a new best friend.Yeats comes to mind: Turning and turning in the widening gyre   The falcon cannot hear the falconer;Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   The ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worst   Are full of passionate intensity.Surely some revelation is at hand;Surely the Second Coming is at hand.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump is ahead in he polls and could be the next leader of the free world. He has promised to be a 'dictator for a day' Will it be the catastrophe that most seem to expect? Is everything he says wrong?Are liberals the ones who have created the conditions for the global march of right-wing populism?Immigration is the big controversy everywhere. Nobody is debating it rationally. We give it a try.Ireland says no. To Wind farms, solar farms, tall buildings, any buildings, data centres and immigrants. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest trade data for Ireland suggest exports are struggling - for the first prolonged period in quite a while. That points to a world trade slowdown - and generalised economic weakness everywhere (apart from the US). Irish GDP could well shrink in 2024 if this continues - for the second year in a row.Inflation surprising to the upside is now a more-or-less global phenomenon after much bigger than expected falls through 2023. Is the last mile on inflation reduction going to be really hard?A lot depends on energy prices. Notwithstanding the trouble in the Red Sea, oil prices are easing back again. As are natural gas prices. If that continues then all will be well with inflation and interest rates will fall this year, albeit maybe a bit later than mortgage holders would like. If oil prices spike, all bets are off.Trump's coalition of supporters is expanding to include the educated (graduates) young. That's new, Why do so many Americans think that life is getting worse when the facts speak otherwise. Why are narratives at such variance with reality? Facts and data just ain't what they used to be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Low or no economic growth is a bigger problem than most people realise.What we don't know about growth might surprise you.Too many country's are losing interest in growth. Not Ireland - yet. But unless growth is nurtured it will be quick to disappear. And there are plenty of warning signs on the horizon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China wants Taiwan on the same terms that it took Hong Kong. 'One country two systems'. A bargain that Xi Jingping failed to honour. No wonder most Taiwanese are suspicious.Taiwan's upcoming Presidential election merits close attention. There probably isn't a 'good' outcome. Just ones that hasten or defer a potential confrontation.Latest inflation data, for end 2023, has generally disappointed. We still think inflation will continue to fall and central banks risk cutting rates too slowly.Ireland is drowning in cash - booming tax revenues - but lacks strategic fiscal direction. It's raining, so why salt money into a rainy day fund. Health, infrastructure, law & order and the environment are all crying out for resources. Instead, populist giveaways are the order of the day, whether from the government or opposition parties.The biggest fiscal threat facing Ireland is the unsustainability of booming corporate tax revenues. One way to deal with this is to boost the domestic side of the economy, especially SMEs. Ireland needs an IDA-type organisation to replicate the success of the real IDA with domestic firms. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How many centrist political parties does Ireland need? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another year of forecasts, mostly wrong. And another season for making forecasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over 100 countries will have elections of one kind or another during 2024. Some analysts think that will be the largest number in history. A lot of those elections could be very consequential.We start the year with Taiwanese elections - the outcome could well provoke China, widely thought to be preparing for a possible war by the end of the decade.We end with the possible return of Trump. How bad could that be? Unimaginably bad. The Colorado Supreme Court made a last dict stand for democracy but the Trump-stuffed Supreme Court in DC knows which side its bread is buttered.As well as a large number of elections, we observe a large number of wars. A secure job occupation for youngsters would be a drone operator. That could be a job for life and one that survives any upcoming European war.The Shinners reinvent economic policy: they want to drive huge numbers of recent mortgagees into negative equity. Fantasy economics will not deter the fans of Ireland's extremists. Every Western country these days has to prove Putin is right in at least one thing: we truly are all decadent. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The IDA's annual report on companies supported by them shows tech job losses. This is consistent with Ireland's external trade data - although the latter remains heavily distorted by post-pandemic return to normal for pharmaceutical exports.Three central banks met this week. All left interest rates unchanged but delivered very different messages. Members of the Federal Reserve's rate setting committee explicitly forecast US rate cuts next year. At a time when the US economy remains in rude health, is growing strongly and the labour market remains very tight.The Bank of England and the ECB both said it is far too early to be even thinking about rate cuts, despite weak economies. Three BoE rate setting headbangers even voted for rate hikes!At least one of these central banks is going to be wrong. Probably all of them. All we are prepared to predict is that your mortgage and other borrowing costs are likely to change next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim returns from Canada and stresses the scope for improved economic & business ties with Ireland.Inflation is coming down but the world's central banks are poised to to do battle with the markets and disabuse them of their assumptions about rapid interest rate cuts next year. Falling interest rate expectations have helped some mortgage rates to ease, especially in the US and UK. House prices have reacted in time honoured fashion and are showing signs of rising again.Is the great house price correction, so desired by so many people, over before it got going?Could the world economy be stabilising and 2024 prospects improving - contrary to most forecasts?What is wrong with Rishi Sunak? How can a man so smart - and decent - get it so badly wrong? One answer: he doesn't get politics. Which is a bit strange for a Prime Minister. In particular, his business background means he believes that reasonable people can be negotiated with. You don't meet too many ideological wing-nuts in hedge -fund land - at least not ones who survive for very long. Sunak's mistake is to assume that his fractious, hard-right colleagues can be bargained with. Whatever they are given, whatever he concedes, it is never enough.The West is failing Ukraine. Putin could now win. And he won't stop at Ukraine. A new European war could be the result. That's not just tragic for Ukraine but also for our sons and daughters who will be asked to fight that war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin.Novo Nordisk has become Europe's largest, most valuable, company on the back of some new weight-loss drugs.Is the hype justified?It's early days but the preliminary evidence is an emphatic yes!There are familiar caveats: potential side effects and cost.But these drugs do seem to work.And not just for weight loss - this is where it gets more speculative/preliminary but there are hints that the drugs' effects on the brain could have some positive benefits for other types of addictions, not just those involving food.Maybe we should just all buy the shares? (This is not an investing tipping podcast!!!)Will the producers of ultra processed foods go the way of tobacco companies?Could these drugs even help us survive Christmas (this really is at the highly speculative/no data end of the spectrum :))Shane O'Mara | Professor of Experimental Brain Research | School of Psychology andInstitute of Neuroscience | Trinity College, Dublin - the University of Dublin, D02 PN40,IrelandHis new book: Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds His newsletter: BrainPizza Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim shares his impressions of the state of Irish-Canada relations during a tour of the major east coast cities.Also in the frame: latest Exchequer returns and GDP data. Boom and bust in a week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation surprises, again, by its rapid fall. But central bankers have been telling us that the 'last mile' will take years. The markets have been laughing at those central bankers. And it is said that our monetary masters value their 'credibility'. Self-awareness training wouldn't go amiss. Or maybe they should just hire a decent PR agency. A week of obituaries. The death of the greatest investor and one of the richest - that most people will never have heard of. Henry Kissinger: greatest statesman ever or war criminal?It's being said that if the Democrats replaced Biden, they would win by a landslide. It's also being said that if the Republican's replace Trump, they will win by a landslide. Nikki Haley is an outside bet for the GOP nomination - even Trump could be persuaded if she promises him a full pardon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The right is rising, even in Ireland. Each country has its own drivers but immigration is a unifying grievance.How big a problem is this in Ireland?Should we all abandon social media? Follow the example of the mayor of Paris?What are the economics of immigration? When people say "we should spend our money on our own citizens" are they right? Or just not able to do arithmetic?The grass isn't always greener elsewhere. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What will be the business and economic consequences of the Dublin riots?There is often trouble when large pools of uneducated, unemployed young men are organised by old men - mad mullahs, army councils, Trump-style demagogues. The list of suspects is a long one. Whether that trouble fizzles out or leads to revolution depends on many things. Mostly how the rest of us react to far right (or left) neo-fascism.Data continue to point to a very robust Irish labour market. Export (especially chemical & pharma) weakness has yet to lead to significant net job losses. Similarly, high profile layoffs in the tech sector are not showing up in the job stats. We are still short of workers. But not, apparently, rioters on scooters. Are they on benefits?The UK’s Autumn Statement was a blast from the past. Transparent fiddling of the numbers, utterly unrealistic forecasts of fiscal austerity post-election and an unaffordable, unsustainable tax cut. Whoever wins the next election will have to reverse that tax cut and then some. Somebody needs a plan to get the UK economy going again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Argentina is a study in not how to do it. For a very long time. And here they go again. Weep for Argentina.Given the serial objections by Sinn Fein to house building in their back yard, NIMBY's should probably vote for them. But where are the houses going to be built? At what cost? Shinner published targets for house buliding on their watch are close to being met by the current government. If house building and rental property supply greatly improve, but prices and rents don't fall, is teh housing crisis solved?Is the Board of OpenAI intelligent? Has the singularity been reached? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Solving the Irish housing crisis is, in principle, easy: just build 50,000 units a year until the word 'crisis' disappears from the headlines and public consciousness. Is that a practical, realistic proposition - for any government of any persuasion? Why not just do it? Lots of trade data, particularly for exports, suggest that economies are slowing down. Irish exports are really hurting from the slowdown in general and the weakness in Pharmaceutical trade in particular. Far fewer people are getting Covid boosters. The weakness (relatively speaking!) in corporation tax receipts is in danger of becoming a trend. We will know a lot more in a couple of weeks when the all-important November exchequer returns are published. The European and Uk economies are moribund. They are at stall speed - it won't take much to knock them into recession. Markets are actively thinking about rate cuts happening much sooner than central bankers are saying is likely. One or two prominent commentators are beginning to flirt with the idea that central banks, particularly the ECB, are on the verge of a big mistake - keeping rates too high for too long Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The only way to understand the latest outbreak of fighting in the ongoing Conservative Party's 30 year war is to look back at history. This has all been going on for a long time.To paraphrase (only a bit) John Major, this is now the Battle of the Bastards. It really is Game of Thrones stuff. But the country - the UK - is being laid to waste.The fight to succeed Sunak is well and truly on. It could well be that Donald trump's future will determine who wins. Farage may be in the jungle, but he could emerge as the winner. It is that febrile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rishi Sunak surprises everybody - he is even capable of a surprise!Cameron is back in, Braverman is back out.Sunak wants to be the candidate for change?Look at Cameron's track record and weep. But could his return be a really smart move by Sunak? Or will it merely invite the right-wing nut-jobs to try and defenestrate him?Just when there was a chance for UK politics to become boringly predictable! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode Jim asks Chris if he is ghost writing articles for the FT.An actual FT journalist, one of their best, wrote an article about the things that Chris has been banging on about since The Other Hand started. Life in the Uk is getting steadily worse. Tim Harford cites three personal anecdotes and lots of data to make the point that public sector services have collapsed in the UK.Chris agrees and extends the point to a lot of private sector services. One reason why both private and public sectors are falling over is a lot of vey good people, normally hard working and conscientious, have worked out that the game is rigged. Anyone who believes that 'if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well' is a mug. When average bankers get £10m for... what?. When signing on bonuses for hedge fund managers have reached £100m! 'The system is rigged' is not an unreasonable conclusion. When you don't even get respect for doing a good job, let alone fair pay, what's the point?And lots of chat about really interesting economic data released around the world this week. Economies are wilting under the pressure of higher interest rates. Irish manufacturing, especially from the 'modern' sector is very weak. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The peak in interest rates grows closer. Maybe Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We will not be cancelled Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of economic data on both sides of the Atlantic are now pointing to slowing growth. Very slow in the case of Europe, a bit slower in the US. Even the US labour market is no longer defying gravity.Is Ireland just an extension of the US economy? It certainly is extremely correlated with US economic performance. It looks like the Corporation tax boom is over. For once, economists can say 'we told you so'ECB tries its hand at forecasting, again. Probably with the same degree of accuracy as before. Are we at peak interest rates, including mortgage rates? Don't count on the ECB discovering self-awareness. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Professor Shane O'Mara Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US Congress is not a serious legislature Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Nathan Johns of The Irish Times. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is ESG investing getting it right? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will the ECB this week do the right thing? (Spoiler alert: nothing) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nathan Johns @nathanrjohns of the Irish Times discusses all of the action in this weekend's quarter finals of the Rugby World Cup.One unfancied team making the semis is ok, two reveals poor RWC seeding & planning. But Nathan convincingly argues that calibrating these things is difficult.Nathan persuades Chris that the 'technical' aspects of the game are as important as the flashier, more 'entertaining' stuff.But isn't rugby all about tries?What about the big one, the final? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The end of liberal conceits? Chris thinks there is evidence for the existence of more anti-Semitism in the world, latent or otherwise, than most are prepared to admit. In the UK, few people can quite bring themselves to believe the evidence of their own eyes and admit to the anti-Semitism present in the Labour party - at least until Starmer began to clean the stables.Everyone, everywhere, says they are not anti-Semitic but despise Israeli policies.For many that is true, genuine and honest. For too many, it's just a mantra to put a thin veil over their anti-Semitism.Chris argues that something pretty fundamental shifted in the past few days. Jim disagrees.Hard thinking and endless reading (and listening) provides few answers and reveals only questions. One (possible) conclusion is that those with certainty are not to be trusted. Three thousand yers of history count for a lot, for all sides in this conflict. Great harm has been done to and by all sides.The intellectual contortions, verbal machinations, sheer flabby-mindedness of the world's left-liberal commentariat has been a wonder to behold. They try hard to blame, of course, Hamas, but 'provide context' via a critique of US foreign policy for the past hundred years. And, of course, blame Israel. It's the old politicians trick, in grotesque form, of saying something true and then immediately following up with a complete non sequitur. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." Well, we certainly have plenty of first rate intellectuals around the West who believe that Hamas is entirely to blame for the terrorist attacks.. But so is the US and Israel. History provides plenty of facts. Choose one - or a few - in isolation and it is easy to take sides.Policy wonks have been claiming all week that they Hamas did what they did because they wanted to derail Israel-Saudi rapprochemont. If that is true, Hamas have succeeded. But how does anyone know what Hamas wants, other than their oft-stated aim of the destruction of Israel and the death of every Jew? The terrorism of Hamas might just have been nihilistic in nature, with little or no strategic thinking behind it. Perhaps Hamas 'succeeded' beyond their wildest dreams and haven't a clue what to do next other than to keep fighting, probably to death of all of them except their corpulent generals, safe behind lines, comfortably ensconced in luxury hotels in Qatar. Probably the hotels built for the football World Cup. Nothing, nothing at all, justifies what Hamas did. What Hamas did won't justify doing the same in return.The world is heading for catastrophe if Gaza is 'levelled'. The shrivelling West is trying to hold the Israelis back. The term in international law is 'proportionality'. We won't see that unless there is another fundamental shift.Now that World's policeman, the US, has left the stage - descended into isolationism and chaos in the case of Washington DC - conflicts will be a much more regular feature of the next 70 years. The period since WW2 was, historically, a remarkably peaceful time. 'Pax Americana' is no more. The 'Global South' is getting off the fence and landing in Beijing.Slightly more mundane thoughts:The Chair of the Federal Reserve made a daft speech this week. Sentiments that we are more used to seeing coming out of the ECB.Geopolitics are disrupting the bond markets and threaten a stock market crash. The Fed's response? 'We might have to raise interest rates'.Watch what they do rather than what they say but this is, at worst, mad, at best, irresponsible. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Octabuild were kind enough to host Jim & Chris for a Webinar discussing all things Budget 2024, with a special focus on the construction industry.The 8 member companies of Octabuild are Dulux Paints, Etex Ireland, Glennon Brothers, Grant Engineering, Gyproc, Irish Cement, Kingspan Insulation and Wavin Ireland’.The national housing crisis puts the construction industry at the heart of what happens next. So, all things considered, this was an extremely timely event with a focus that couldn't be more topical.This podcast is a recording of the Octabuild Webinar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.