The Other Hand

Inflation surprises, again, by its rapid fall. But central bankers have been telling us that the 'last mile' will take years. The markets have been laughing at those central bankers. And it is said that our monetary masters value their 'credibility'. Self-awareness training wouldn't go amiss. Or maybe they should just hire a decent PR agency. A week of obituaries. The death of the greatest investor and one of the richest - that most people will never have heard of. Henry Kissinger: greatest statesman ever or war criminal?It's being said that if the Democrats replaced Biden, they would win by a landslide. It's also being said that if the Republican's replace Trump, they will win by a landslide. Nikki Haley is an outside bet for the GOP nomination - even Trump could be persuaded if she promises him a full pardon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The right is rising, even in Ireland. Each country has its own drivers but immigration is a unifying grievance.How big a problem is this in Ireland?Should we all abandon social media? Follow the example of the mayor of Paris?What are the economics of immigration? When people say "we should spend our money on our own citizens" are they right? Or just not able to do arithmetic?The grass isn't always greener elsewhere. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What will be the business and economic consequences of the Dublin riots?There is often trouble when large pools of uneducated, unemployed young men are organised by old men - mad mullahs, army councils, Trump-style demagogues. The list of suspects is a long one. Whether that trouble fizzles out or leads to revolution depends on many things. Mostly how the rest of us react to far right (or left) neo-fascism.Data continue to point to a very robust Irish labour market. Export (especially chemical & pharma) weakness has yet to lead to significant net job losses. Similarly, high profile layoffs in the tech sector are not showing up in the job stats. We are still short of workers. But not, apparently, rioters on scooters. Are they on benefits?The UK’s Autumn Statement was a blast from the past. Transparent fiddling of the numbers, utterly unrealistic forecasts of fiscal austerity post-election and an unaffordable, unsustainable tax cut. Whoever wins the next election will have to reverse that tax cut and then some. Somebody needs a plan to get the UK economy going again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Argentina is a study in not how to do it. For a very long time. And here they go again. Weep for Argentina.Given the serial objections by Sinn Fein to house building in their back yard, NIMBY's should probably vote for them. But where are the houses going to be built? At what cost? Shinner published targets for house buliding on their watch are close to being met by the current government. If house building and rental property supply greatly improve, but prices and rents don't fall, is teh housing crisis solved?Is the Board of OpenAI intelligent? Has the singularity been reached? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Solving the Irish housing crisis is, in principle, easy: just build 50,000 units a year until the word 'crisis' disappears from the headlines and public consciousness. Is that a practical, realistic proposition - for any government of any persuasion? Why not just do it? Lots of trade data, particularly for exports, suggest that economies are slowing down. Irish exports are really hurting from the slowdown in general and the weakness in Pharmaceutical trade in particular. Far fewer people are getting Covid boosters. The weakness (relatively speaking!) in corporation tax receipts is in danger of becoming a trend. We will know a lot more in a couple of weeks when the all-important November exchequer returns are published. The European and Uk economies are moribund. They are at stall speed - it won't take much to knock them into recession. Markets are actively thinking about rate cuts happening much sooner than central bankers are saying is likely. One or two prominent commentators are beginning to flirt with the idea that central banks, particularly the ECB, are on the verge of a big mistake - keeping rates too high for too long Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The only way to understand the latest outbreak of fighting in the ongoing Conservative Party's 30 year war is to look back at history. This has all been going on for a long time.To paraphrase (only a bit) John Major, this is now the Battle of the Bastards. It really is Game of Thrones stuff. But the country - the UK - is being laid to waste.The fight to succeed Sunak is well and truly on. It could well be that Donald trump's future will determine who wins. Farage may be in the jungle, but he could emerge as the winner. It is that febrile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rishi Sunak surprises everybody - he is even capable of a surprise!Cameron is back in, Braverman is back out.Sunak wants to be the candidate for change?Look at Cameron's track record and weep. But could his return be a really smart move by Sunak? Or will it merely invite the right-wing nut-jobs to try and defenestrate him?Just when there was a chance for UK politics to become boringly predictable! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode Jim asks Chris if he is ghost writing articles for the FT.An actual FT journalist, one of their best, wrote an article about the things that Chris has been banging on about since The Other Hand started. Life in the Uk is getting steadily worse. Tim Harford cites three personal anecdotes and lots of data to make the point that public sector services have collapsed in the UK.Chris agrees and extends the point to a lot of private sector services. One reason why both private and public sectors are falling over is a lot of vey good people, normally hard working and conscientious, have worked out that the game is rigged. Anyone who believes that 'if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well' is a mug. When average bankers get £10m for... what?. When signing on bonuses for hedge fund managers have reached £100m! 'The system is rigged' is not an unreasonable conclusion. When you don't even get respect for doing a good job, let alone fair pay, what's the point?And lots of chat about really interesting economic data released around the world this week. Economies are wilting under the pressure of higher interest rates. Irish manufacturing, especially from the 'modern' sector is very weak. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The peak in interest rates grows closer. Maybe Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We will not be cancelled Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of economic data on both sides of the Atlantic are now pointing to slowing growth. Very slow in the case of Europe, a bit slower in the US. Even the US labour market is no longer defying gravity.Is Ireland just an extension of the US economy? It certainly is extremely correlated with US economic performance. It looks like the Corporation tax boom is over. For once, economists can say 'we told you so'ECB tries its hand at forecasting, again. Probably with the same degree of accuracy as before. Are we at peak interest rates, including mortgage rates? Don't count on the ECB discovering self-awareness. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Professor Shane O'Mara Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US Congress is not a serious legislature Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With Nathan Johns of The Irish Times. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is ESG investing getting it right? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will the ECB this week do the right thing? (Spoiler alert: nothing) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nathan Johns @nathanrjohns of the Irish Times discusses all of the action in this weekend's quarter finals of the Rugby World Cup.One unfancied team making the semis is ok, two reveals poor RWC seeding & planning. But Nathan convincingly argues that calibrating these things is difficult.Nathan persuades Chris that the 'technical' aspects of the game are as important as the flashier, more 'entertaining' stuff.But isn't rugby all about tries?What about the big one, the final? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The end of liberal conceits? Chris thinks there is evidence for the existence of more anti-Semitism in the world, latent or otherwise, than most are prepared to admit. In the UK, few people can quite bring themselves to believe the evidence of their own eyes and admit to the anti-Semitism present in the Labour party - at least until Starmer began to clean the stables.Everyone, everywhere, says they are not anti-Semitic but despise Israeli policies.For many that is true, genuine and honest. For too many, it's just a mantra to put a thin veil over their anti-Semitism.Chris argues that something pretty fundamental shifted in the past few days. Jim disagrees.Hard thinking and endless reading (and listening) provides few answers and reveals only questions. One (possible) conclusion is that those with certainty are not to be trusted. Three thousand yers of history count for a lot, for all sides in this conflict. Great harm has been done to and by all sides.The intellectual contortions, verbal machinations, sheer flabby-mindedness of the world's left-liberal commentariat has been a wonder to behold. They try hard to blame, of course, Hamas, but 'provide context' via a critique of US foreign policy for the past hundred years. And, of course, blame Israel. It's the old politicians trick, in grotesque form, of saying something true and then immediately following up with a complete non sequitur. F. Scott Fitzgerald said, "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." Well, we certainly have plenty of first rate intellectuals around the West who believe that Hamas is entirely to blame for the terrorist attacks.. But so is the US and Israel. History provides plenty of facts. Choose one - or a few - in isolation and it is easy to take sides.Policy wonks have been claiming all week that they Hamas did what they did because they wanted to derail Israel-Saudi rapprochemont. If that is true, Hamas have succeeded. But how does anyone know what Hamas wants, other than their oft-stated aim of the destruction of Israel and the death of every Jew? The terrorism of Hamas might just have been nihilistic in nature, with little or no strategic thinking behind it. Perhaps Hamas 'succeeded' beyond their wildest dreams and haven't a clue what to do next other than to keep fighting, probably to death of all of them except their corpulent generals, safe behind lines, comfortably ensconced in luxury hotels in Qatar. Probably the hotels built for the football World Cup. Nothing, nothing at all, justifies what Hamas did. What Hamas did won't justify doing the same in return.The world is heading for catastrophe if Gaza is 'levelled'. The shrivelling West is trying to hold the Israelis back. The term in international law is 'proportionality'. We won't see that unless there is another fundamental shift.Now that World's policeman, the US, has left the stage - descended into isolationism and chaos in the case of Washington DC - conflicts will be a much more regular feature of the next 70 years. The period since WW2 was, historically, a remarkably peaceful time. 'Pax Americana' is no more. The 'Global South' is getting off the fence and landing in Beijing.Slightly more mundane thoughts:The Chair of the Federal Reserve made a daft speech this week. Sentiments that we are more used to seeing coming out of the ECB.Geopolitics are disrupting the bond markets and threaten a stock market crash. The Fed's response? 'We might have to raise interest rates'.Watch what they do rather than what they say but this is, at worst, mad, at best, irresponsible. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Octabuild were kind enough to host Jim & Chris for a Webinar discussing all things Budget 2024, with a special focus on the construction industry.The 8 member companies of Octabuild are Dulux Paints, Etex Ireland, Glennon Brothers, Grant Engineering, Gyproc, Irish Cement, Kingspan Insulation and Wavin Ireland’.The national housing crisis puts the construction industry at the heart of what happens next. So, all things considered, this was an extremely timely event with a focus that couldn't be more topical.This podcast is a recording of the Octabuild Webinar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ireland's export data weakens again. It's beginning to look like a trend. And maybe the world economy is weaker than we thought.The Health Service needs more money. How many countries can say that? It's as true in Ireland as elsewhere. But the suspicion grows that you could give the HSE any amount of money and it would still have a budget hole of €2 billion at the end of the year. Any year. Somebody needs to find teh cure for fiscal incontinence.The world looks ever more dangerous by the day. Plenty of gloomy analyses are appearing that look back on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the start of something akin to the events that began with assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in June 1914. At the very least, lots of seemingly disparate events are observed and then linked in ways that make for alarmist headlines. The war in Ukraine, Iran’s threatened war against Israel, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia might be about to invade Kosovo, the US placing two carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean and Chinese threats against Taiwan: all of these things are, for some observers, beginning to look like a pattern. The thread - if there is one - that links most or all of these conflicts, actual or threatened, is growing American dysfunction and, in particular, isolationism of the US. One interpretation of post WW2 history is that the world went through an unusually peaceful period mostly because of ‘Pax Americana’: the US as the global policeman. Commentators such as Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins, prominent blogger (‘Substacker’ to be precise) Noah Smith and historian Niall Ferguson have all penned dark and pessimistic pieces focussing on different aspects of the threats facing the world. All agree that those threats have not been as great for a very long time. Mostly because ‘Pax Americana’ is over.History does teach us that what happens next is unlikely to have been predicted by anybody. But the more apocalyptic analysts see two obvious threats. First, the Israeli armed forces are overwhelmed fighting a three front war in Gaza, the West Bank and along the Lebanese border. Somewhere - perhaps everywhere - in that fight will be Iran. If the US gets involved, so, perhaps, will Iran’s new ally, Russia. As an intermediate possible step, Qatar could disrupt global supplies of natural gas in the same way OPEC did to oil in the 1970s - that would make last year’s spike in energy prices look like a small-scale rehearsal. The other big foreseeable threat is Taiwan. China has said, explicitly, that it will take back the Island. If it intends to do so over the next decade or so, now would seem to be the most opportune time. ‘Joining the dots’ is the favourite activity of the armchair analyst. The pictures that emerge from these exercises can be truly alarming. They could, of course, be completely wrong. But a lot of people are drawing very similar pictures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why Ireland lost in a game of the finest of margins - really.On the numbers, Ireland and New Zealand could replay that game, deploy the same players and tactics, and Ireland would win 9 games out of 10. This was the tenth game.What about Ireland going forward - looking good, even in terms of replacing Jonny Sexton. Tight Head Prop, a massively under-rated position, could be more problematic.How is it possible that England are the only undefeated side in the World Cup? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everything really is connected to everything else Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We really are doing economic policy all wrong Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

They really deserved to win this one Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Professor Charlotte Cavaillé is a global expert on inequality and redistribution. Her extensive research program has reframed the discussion such that our perceptions of fairness are front and centre. With some surprising results.In many countries, particularly the US and UK, inequality has risen. Economists might argue that self-interested electorates, which contain increasing numbers of people suffering form inequality, might start calling for more redistribution. But the evidence says not. Moreover, in France, where inequality has not risen in US-style fashion, people are convinced they live in ever worse economic conditions.The more we think about this, the more complicated things become. Professor Cavaillé urges us, persuasively, to think about the issues in new ways.If we focus on who we are redistributing from, we might get a very different discussion compared to when we focus on who we are redistributing to. Fat cats in the 1% or benefit scrounging freeloaders?The immigration debate is salient everywhere. Breaking down - understanding our societal norms about fairness & proportionality - help to explain why, Danish-style, allowing migrants to work - to earn - has more popular appeal than giving them benefits. It might even make sense - countries that restrict or forbid migrant employment take note.We discuss all this and more with Charlotte as she takes us through her brilliant new book 'Fair Enough" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Do we have a right brain problem? Author and journalist Matthew Syed said so in a recent fascinating Sunday Times column.Professor of Neuroscience at Trinity College Dublin, Shane O'Mara, says no.So why is our political discourse, pretty much everywhere, so polarised, context & nuance free, and just so nasty?Why, when we know, with as much certainty as we can muster, that the world is a very uncertain place, is everyone so certain?Shane is tempted to say that the world was ever thus and Chris & Jim should stay off Twitter.Point taken, but the authoritarian, conspiracy loving nut jobs do seem to have the upper hand - or at least are making more noise.In this podcast, AI is confused with AIB. That is a step too far. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are equities heading for an October event? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Batten down the hatches? Fat chance Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Time for rocket scientists to stop blowing up the (economic) world Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In an Irish Times Article that has gone globally viral, journalist Nathan Johns, @nathanrjohns, analysed data that suggests S. Africa might have won that match. Perhaps even deserved to win that match.But they lost.Why?Numbers are not quite everything it seems. Nearly everything, but not everything.Chris looks forward to a Wales victory in the semi final. Maybe even against Ireland. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A big week in financial markets: bond yields are up to multi-year highs. All other asset prices have been affected. Equities are down, exchange rates are all over the place.The new narrative is interest rates 'higher for longer'. Wethink this could be yet another narrative fallacy.Interest rates were left unchanged in the US and UK following the ECB's latest dopey hike.Economies are weakening under the strain of past rate hikes. Particularly the dopey ones.Is Euroscepticism, pre-Brexit style, going to make a comeback?Support for Ukraine - is it fracturing?Saying goodbye to the Welsh economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest data and forecasts for the Irish economy suggest 'growing but slowing'Unemployment is forecast to stay very low - essentially an economy at full employmentUnemployment in many countries is forecast to stay low, despite low or no growth. That's because labour markets have been puzzlingly tight for years. Are we just extrapolating the recent past and forgetting that unemployment could rise?Bond markets expect rate cuts next year. They won't get thise without a rise in unemployment, which few, if any, forecasters expect.Somebody is getting this wrong.If I was Finance Minister for a day!Surely realpolitik dictates less prudence now in exchange for more prudence post-election? The Central Bank & IFAC both call for prudence NOW, arguably handing the election to Sinn Fein - who will be anything but prudent with the public finances. A big UK inflation surpriseNot such a big surprise: Sunak reveals himself to be a grubby climate change denier. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of great rugby over the last two weekends.Uruguay scare France by playing running rugby. Really entertaining stuff. One poor clearance kick undid the Uruguayans. The kicking game.Tonga show Ireland up at the breakdown. Another problem for Paul O'ConnellEngland, so boring - but so what?A tight point spread for Ireland S. Africa? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US inflation rose again last month: is the good news over? The Saudi-Russian alliance seems determined to get oil prices up to $100. That could mean €2+ for a litre or petrol and/or diesel. Interest rates look to be in 'higher for longer mode'. There is nothing good that flows from $100 oil - other than an economic slowdown/recession that will cut fossil fuel consumption & help, a little, the environment.Putin is building a new friendship circle, including fellow megalomaniacs from N. Korea and mad mullahs from Tehran.The advice to the next government everywhere, including UK, US and Ireland, is the same: build more houses. In the UK and Ireland that's gonna need big reforms of the planning system. Comedians - and serious journalists - are starting to tell jokes about Sunak's chances of winning the next general election. Are Ross O'Carroll-Kelly's D4 brothers-in-arms helping to shutter a 112 year-old cricket club? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Euro area economy is weak Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest Irish government tax and spending figures have prompted lots of questions. Not least: is the corporation tax bonza over?Economists and budgetary watchdogs are only doing their job when they warn about spending one-off, or windfall, tax receipts. But the upcoming budget will be as big a political event as it will be about economics. Arguably the most intensely political budget in a very long time. The politics all point towards giving money away. Maybe there are clever ways of doing that.Jim thinks Chris might have a bit of an agenda when it comes to the UK. Chris claims to just have data. Either way, major bits of the country's infrastructure are at risk of falling down. Quite sad really. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Other Hand's occasional coverage of the Rugby World Cup starts here!An ongoing conversation with Irish Times journalist Nathan Johns. Enjoy some proper rugby analysis, a little rugby banter, free of cliche and jargon, from a journalist who really does know his stuff.In today's episode we set the scene by asking whether the RWC can be as unifying a force for France as was the 1998 soccer world cup.The opening match couldn't have been better scripted: between the first and second favourites. Why are the two sides of the draw so lopsided? Could Ireland fail to get out of 'the group of death'The groups were decided years ago, to ease the travel plans of the world's prawn sandwich brigade rugby officials and their friends and familiesWill France, 'the most Unfrench team' prevail?How will Ireland do? They cant be bullied any more but lack a little depth in the event of key injuriesEngland don't even know what their team is (really)The Welsh had better watch out for FijiNew Zealand really do have weaknesses, particularly up front Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our latest podcast is up, a conversation between Chris and Shane O’Mara, Professor of Brain Science at Trinity.Shane, a prolific best-selling author, has a brilliant new book out -  Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds And a terrific Substack: BrainPizza, well worth a sign-up.In today's pod:Who is coming for Ted Cruz's beer and why is he so angry about it?Why do we get so bent of shape by so little?Why did Jimmy Page & Robert Plant's post Led Zeppelin careers diverge so much?Reaching the top of the mountain and finding nothing there.Hyperbolic discounting: if we don't do some long-term thinking there won't be a long term.Techocrats Vs visionariesWe all want to be heard but why should anyone listenBeing poor really sucks - and is really bad for your brainWind farms are beautiful.A note of optimism Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

You couldn't make it up Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The battle to be Trump's VP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brace for another ECB policy mistake Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rental crisis goes global. So does the bond crisis. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reminder: it's August Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Governments can't solve every problem. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can we change our minds? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Did WW3 just start? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Slowdown drums beat louder Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will America survive a second Trump Presidency? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Landings soft and hard Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If bankers want market salaries there needs to be more banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.