The Other Hand

Trump is impossible to forecast - so should we stop trying? Is talking about him merely enabling him? Colluding with him?There is a spiders-web of connections between Trump and Brexit.Farage, Le Pen and Orban have a new spring in their step.Brexiteers still hanker after a free trade deal with the US. They must confront the reality of a protectionist US President - and government.One way Trump could make mischief would be to implement his global tariffs but offer the UK an exemption. The British government could hardly say no. But that would blow out of the water all of their efforts 'to get closer to the EU'. That would be the end of the 'rebuilding trust' project.Brexit is now too difficult to talk about. It may even be a problem too difficult to solve. Most Britons agree that Brexit was a mistake but is now a problem child best kept hidden.Electorates everywhere want anything but the truth.A fabulous conversation with Professor Chris Grey Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The list of reasons why Trump won is getting longer. Some make sense, some do not. We look at the evidence-based ones. One very stark conclusion: not every Trump voter thinks all that positively about the President-elect. It's simply that they find the Democratic Party even more repulsive.The Trump trade is on. The stock market loves the prospect of trade wars, budget-busting tax cuts and mass deportations. Something doesn't add up.Incumbent governments everywhere are having a very hard time. The outgoing Irsh coalition should take note.Old media is as wounded as the opinion poll industry. Podcasting helped win it for Trump. A billion spent on TV ads did nothing for Harris. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Well, we said it was the year of election. Now we live with the consequences. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The fabulous US economy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The first UK budget ever delivered by a female Chancellor was presented with aplomb and panache. A pity the details didn’t match up to the presentation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Germany is in economic trouble. Its car industry - 7% of the economy - is being squeezed by struggling exports (to China in particular) and a poorly handled transition to EVs.Add in problems that go back decades and maybe its time to become a Eurosceptic again. If Trump wins, the Democrats need to look in mirror. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Loads of men (mostly) say their favourite movie is The Godfather. Plenty also rate the Sopranos as the best TV series ever. Is that because they secretly (and not so secretly these days) would love to have a Mafiosi's unchecked power?Brexit is the most contemporary example of people saying the system doesn't work for them and then replacing it with something far worse. The US appears to be on the verge of making the same mistake.Unchecked power accompanied by extreme wealth turns people mad.The checks and balances built into the US constitution were put there by people who recognised the dark side of human nature. They designed a system with guardrails explicitly put there to protect against someone like Trump rising to power.Trump unchained will be nothing like the Trump of his first reign. There is nobody left, even on the Supreme Court, to hold him back. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's easy to conclude that we are a violent species. Just look at the state of the world.In a quite brilliant book, Professor Christopher Blattman argues that history books can give a misleading impression: on most days, war doesn't happen.Blattman has read everything. He has talked to the street gangs of Chicago and drug lords in Colombia. He summarises his vast knowledge with five main reasons why going to war - rathe than making peace - seems to happen. Armed (pardon the pun) with this knowledge, policy makers can get better at peace making.But, he warns, most policies are wrong, or likley to be. Grand, big theories of everything are best avoided. He urges a 'marginal' approach, perhaps best described as 'suck it and see'. Take baby steps and prepare to fail. But keep going. Small steps may mean you won't make big mistakes.It's hard to end wars but they always do. It's the terms that matter. It looks like Putin is going to win in Ukraine.Even more seriously, are China and America stuck in the same trap that drove ancient Sparta and Athens to war? That's the famous Thucydides Trap.A truly fabulous discussion. Our thanks to Shane. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish house prices are now well in excess of their pre-financial crisis peaks. Is the only thing that will get them down an old fashioned recession? More supply is certainly needed but it is far from clear that more houses equals lower prices - other things are not equalWhy do we still bang on about a cost of living crisis when inflation has fallen towards zero? If not actually zero. May be the answer is really simple: in the US (and probably elsewhere) food and energy price inflation reached 40% in 2022 - higher even than during the great energy shock of 1973. Europe has more problems than lower interest rates can solveEven if people have more letters after their name than are in their name, they are still capable of saying daft things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The arguments over the help needed for the domestic economy run and runIs Sinn Fein just a reunification party with a few half-hearted populist policies thrown in to get elected? Neither Chris nor Jim won the economics Nobel Prize.And much more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is the Irish inflation rate too low? All economists bar one or two say that the economy is over-heating. Could the opposite be true? Latest data certainly hints in that direction.Inflation disappoints, ever so slightly, in the US, where interest rate expectations have shifted again. The European interest rate outlook hasn't shifted at all - rates are coming down. Very soon.An important debate is to be had about whether or not pubs, restaurants and hotels need special treatment from the government.China would love some over-heating.Do we want to drive cars that are potentially controlled from Beijing? Or is that just science fiction? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Keir Starmer up to the task? The early evidence suggests not?Are bankers worth it? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Has the coalition blown it? Or does the outpouring of budget criticism from official Ireland miss the point: it's what the people wanted? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will the electorate be grateful for budget 2025?Where was the long-term strategy and/or vision?So little for Irish businesses, particularly indigenous SMEsTax base narrowed againInfrastructure mentioned loads of times with few details, let alone plansNot nearly enough focus on return on invetsmentWill it work? In political terms at least. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As we approach Budget 2025, we reflect on the usual leaked measures and suggest we are just children looking for the keys to the sweet shop. And yet so many of us say we want more houses, better health and high-quality schools. And then we elect politicians with a mandate to do none of those things. Is democracy structurally incapable of delivering much needed change? Or is just a system that delivers blocking coalitions to parliaments everywhere that prevent anything serious from happening? Is democracy now just the culturally and economically complacent ensuring that things stay pretty much the same?All this as the European economy sinks back into sullen economic mediocrity. At least interest rates will fall again in a few weeks and give house prices another much needed boost. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A prominent ex central banker has suggested that Ireland should spend the money: it's time, he says, for 'Jam today'. That's our interpretation, at least, of his only slightly coded remarks.Trumponomics: it's time to take them seriously, if not literally.Another Chinese economic stimulus: bazooka or pea-shooter?Your weekly reminder about the global nature of the housing crisis Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There is a building slowdown in global manufacturing that is starting to look serious. This is a Chinese problem that is fast becoming a major issue for Germany. That's one explanation for the rise of the right in Germany.The new UK government is beginning to look like a bewildered bunch of not very good middle managers Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US central bank goes large and delivers a big interest rate cut. Thereby admitting it should have cut sooner.The Irish property market moves into double figure price inflation. And mortgage rates are only going to fall further Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What is the right level of interest rates? While discussion of 'R-star' might seem esoteric, they do say one important thing: Euro interest rates are way too high.The Federal Reserve has achieved its price stability mandate and is now switching to focus on employment.Growth is now front and centre of all European economic policy debate. Even - especially - in the UK. The new chancellor is going down exactly the wrong path if she sticks to her fiscal rules. Don't just listen to us - every economist in the world is now on the same page when it comes to investment and growth. The time has come to junk the old rules and embrace sensible risk taking.The response to the Apple tax case has at times verged on hysteria. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. Where are all the foreign multinationals going to go? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish inflation this week confirmed that the economy is showing few, if any, obvious signs of overheating. Prices are still going. up but at their slowest pace in a long while. That said, prices are 20% higher than we saw pre-pandemic. Memo to economists: don't pretend you know what causes inflation.European interest rates are still too high.When does government debt matter? 100% of GDP? 300% of GDP? As always, it all depends! But the US is adding to its debt in a most reckless and unsustainable manner.The Draghi report is worth reading at least twice. It is incredibly hard hitting. Europe's economy is falling far behind the US. His message to Euope's policymakers: do whatever it takes to catch up. Otherwise, the European project risks failure. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this podcast special Jim talks with Alex Denning, a 25 year old racing superstar.The business of modern racing is all about money, contacts and driving talent - in that order.Alex talks about doing exactly what his parents didn't want him to do. Making it with McLaren!But it costs anything between 5-15 million to break into Formula 1. Sometimes more - your dad has to buy the car company!Want. to lose weight? Forget about Ozempic - drive a McLaren very fast for lots of laps and you will be a lot slimmer.Alex gives us a young person's perspective on life in Ireland. And on things UK, French and Italian (the French are rude and unwelcoming. Italian driving habits are very strange)EVs are losing traction. Why?And much more. Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To the surprise of many observers, Europe's top court has told Apple it must pay Ireland €13.1 billion in back taxes.In a case that dates back to 2016, it's partly a history lesson about dodgy practices - the double Irish and all that. Those days are long gone.But there is also an investment lesson here, one that is not just of historical interest. The outcome of the original investment was €14.8 billion became €13.1 billion, thanks to the original purchase of negative yielding government bonds. If the disputed taxes had been parked in Apple shares, the Irish government would today be in receipt of around €100 billion. Investment decisions are always massively consequential. Where to invest the €13.1 billion now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Latest jobs numbers from the US point to a weakening economy. Interest rate cuts are on the way. The only question is, 'how big?'European elites are warning that Europe could cease to exist in its current from unless radical remedial action is taken. Few politicians will lsiten. If they do, they won't act. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Still drowning in cash, the new Finance Minister is warned by IFAC, yet again, not to spend it. Are the fiscal giveaways of past budgets really costing each household €1000 a year? Amidst all the cries of 'they are windfall taxes' it's forgotten that capital investment is - or should be - very different to current spending. We used to argue about borrowing for investment purposes - economists have always pointed that that borrowing for investment is perfectly ok, provided the return on that investment is higher than the cost. Now, some seem to be arguing that spending money that we already have, windfall or otherwise, still shouldn't be spent, even on high return projects. There's crying wolf and then just being daft.GDP data is all over the place and has defeated us. Exchequer returns and other data point to an economy still growing although not one that is overheating. Tax revenues are booming and unemployment is down again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rather than put all the spare cash in a 'future proof' fund, should the Finance Minister simply recognise the future is here, right now?Deviance has been normalised. Bicycle sheds with golden roofs: a parable about quality versus quantity of government spending Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

J D Vance has shot to prominence following his selection by Donald Trump to be, potentially, the next Vice President of the US.In this podcast special, we focus on Vance's 2016 best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, to try and explain and understand the man who clearly wants, one day, to be the leader of the free world.We are joined by Professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin to discuss all things JDV. And there really is a lot to discuss! Shane is also a best-selling author (of much better books than JDV's memoir) and writes his own Substack called BrainPizza. Do check out any of his works, especially his most recent book, 'Talking Heads: The New Science of How Conversation Shapes Our Worlds'. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The upcoming budget is thought likely to include changes - increases - to tax breaks on pensions and a rise in inheritance tax thresholds. We both agree that helping millionaire pensioners with even more tax breaks is nuts. But we disagree sharply about the wisdom of inheritance taxes. These are incredibly emotive topics. As our discussion shows!The Other Hand always welcomes feedback - good, bad or indifferent. We share a particularly interesting perspective from one listener. Ireland's population continues to soar. But people are moving in and out. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ireland has just set a new record for the number of people in employment. Back in the day, you either worked on the farm, civil service, domestic service or emigrated (only slightly simplified). If you had accurately forecast the relentless fall in agriculture-related jobs over the past decades you would have also forecast an overall economic disaster - one that did not happen. There were plenty of bad times of course but you would not have expected rapidly growing population and job numbers in 2024.Artificial Intelligence also threatens a jobs apocalypse. But maybe there are lessons to be learned from Ireland's economic transformation.Kamala Harris has promised a 28% tax rate. Do we take her literally or seriously? If delivered it could BOOST Ireland's corporation tax revenues. There again, Trump wants to reduce it to 15%, a clear threat to those revenues. And, of course, neither might happen.Everyone is paying too much attention to policy proposals and not enough to the vibe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Irish house prices are approaching double digit rates of increase. What is going on? Is it supply? Demand? Interest rates? Demography? The robust economy?Of course, it's all of the above. We need to think about all of these things. If you really want house prices to fall you would massively increase supply and aggressively raise interest rates. A good old fashioned recession would really help. So be careful what you wish for.The economy is, thankfully far from recession. But something weird is happening to sectoral trade trends with the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chris explains why he has deleted his Twitter/X account.Donald Trump is weird, but is it a good attack line for the Democrats?Elon Musk's resemblance to Bond villain Elliot CarverRussia has been invaded: a story that doesn't figure on the front pages.And the latest economic news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It seems a touch fanciful to us, but some analysts are wondering if Intel could go the way of Nokia. What is true is that at least one big company with a big Irish presence is in a spot of bother. Let's hope its recovery plan works.But it is a reminder that many a once great company has disappeared. Who remembers that Nokia once was as dominant as Apple?The US regulator has declared Google to be a 'monopoly'. That could have profound consequences.Whether or not technological obsolescence and/or the regulator is coming for big parts of the tech sector, one thing is certain: if they can't turn the lights on, they will go elsewhere. Power supply is becoming an urgent issue.All this in more in our weekend edition. Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reminder: stock markets go down as well as up. But wait long enough and they usually go up. Is the return of volatility a sign of a problem or just another wobble that will soon be forgotten?One problem is the story we create around these type of events. Our narratives are often not very good guesses.Chris puts some cash to work and Jim sticks to Bitcoin - this is not investment advice!!! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets message to central banks: you are making a big mistake Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

'Weird' and 'vibe' are the words of the moment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What is with all these extreme Catholics in positions of power & influence in the US? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is J D Vance nomination Trump's big strategic error? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reflections on Hillbilly Hypocrisy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Has Simon Harris managed to change the narrative? He's 'taken back control' of at least some of the key issue. We shouldn't underestimate the powerful psychological impact of wiping out Sinn Fein's aura pf 'electoral inevitability'.Is ' buying the next election' with a giveaway budget really a sensible strategy? Even politically?Is it true to FG's self-image as the party of fiscal rectitude? Is it even possible - is the Irish electorate that biddable? Perhaps call the general election and ask the electorate: vote for us and then we will show you the money.Alternatively, maybe a budget for housing, health and infrastructure would be more politically astute than one that doles out cash via tax cuts.SF's tack to the centre - or even the anti-immigration right - includes schmoozing business. That could alienate its left-wing.What are we going to do when all the priests are dead?What is right wing? J D Vance on conservatives Vs libertarians.And Much, much more! Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Keir Starmer already getting lucky? Only one month's data, but GDP growth smashed estimates in May.US and Irish inflation down again.IFAC warns about an 'overheating' risk to the Irish economy. Why we should all, in fact, get to love overheating.Nvidia, AI & the US stock market: amazing growthBiden is losing his friends. He should make Kamala Harris President now.Orban has a very dodgy group of friends. Poland is getting nervous. Reform. We note that the infighting looks to have begun Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Irish political scene looks as fluid as that in France, the UK and elsewhere. The polls are getting it wrong and plenty of voters don't make up their minds until they enter the polling booth. We take a deep dive into all of this with renowned Irish political analyst and commentator, Tull McAdoo.Why is Sinn Fein's vote collapsing? Will they recover? Maybe their last General Election result was a proper Black Swan event and the recent local and European elections are a better reflection of their base level support. Maybe they simply are not the well-oiled machine of urban - and mainstream media - legendHas Simon Harris helped you put out the washing? 'Politics is a retail business'.Coalitions always end badly, the current one will be no different. Smaller parties, in particular, always emerge very damaged.Advice to all wannabe politicians: knock on doors!And much more! Enjoy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In conversation with author, blogger and columnist, Professor Chris GreyPost the Labour landslide election victory, some of us have smiles on our faces. Does the result mean we can now really turn the page on the chaos and mendacity of the last 14 years? Is Keir Starmer relying on dumb luck for success? Is this the last chance saloon for the UK?"Stability, Investment and Reform". How deliverable are these things? Will they be enough, particularly as there is no money?Labour is placing a big bet on getting construction going again. Who is going to do he building if immigration is to be reduced?How do you do he right thing if you are subsequently politically crucified?Can the UK really move closer to the EU with Farage in Parliament and the rabid Brexit media waiting in the wings?And much more! Enjoy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Irish finance minister is drowning in cash. Booming tax revenues the clearest indicator - much better than GDP - that the economy remains robust.Politics over economics: Charlie McCreevy once said when finance minister, "If I have it, I'll spend it'. It's not what the budgetary watchdog or the central bank would endorse - quite the opposite of course. But if its bad economics, is it good politics? If so, the upcoming budget is going to be something else.Will that budget be quickly followed by an election?The UK, of course, has just had its own election. We discuss the many and varied takeaways. Chris suggests that the UK electing a centrist government after 14 chaotic and crazy years is cause for celebration and could just change the economic narrative, whatever the political fallout. Maybe Liz Truss did us all a favour and has given a salutary lesson to those who would flirt with batshit crazy populism. Maybe even in Ireland.Joe Biden and the Democrats have to change the narrative. Make Kamala Harris president. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this podcast we welcome back regular guest, Professor Shane O'Mara, neuroscientist and professor at Trinity College Dublin.I a review of an important new book by Dan Davies, professor Brad de Long of Berkley asks the question: given we are over 15 times better off than our pre-industrial ancestors, why are we so miserable. Davies gives one answer: things have become so complex, few people know how anything works any more and nobody is in charge. So nobody is accountable. 'Nothing works any more' is a constant refrain and Davies gives us his ideas about why so many of us feel that way. His answers may also give pointers as to why the established order - which seems to to make us so unhappy - was overthrown by Brexit, Trump and is going that way in many other countries, not least France.Professor O'Mara pushes back, gently, against some of this. Demagogues know how to trigger the 30ish % of us that have latent authoritarian tendencies. Make us afraid of immigrants, the deep state, Brussels - we all know the mantras by now. Le Pen & co just know how to get a significant minority afraid and angry. Maybe it was ever thus. Chris argues that something has, in fact, changed and some things are worse. Shane says there is plenty of evidence that says we are happier than the headlines suggest. But measuring 'life satisfaction' is nuanced and tricky.But isn't it obvious where the increase in unhappiness has occurred? France, the US the UK?The UK was the first to give manifest expression to its anger with the rupture - disaster - that was Brexit. Maybe because of a form of collective PTSD, Brexit cannot be talked about because of the fear of triggering precisely that post-traumatic stress. Maybe its just too soon to have the adult conversation. But those who brought forth the trauma are about to get their just deserts. Maybe. Populists appeal but cannot deliver - or just govern.Some more thoughts on Biden and cognitive decline - don't jump to hasty conclusions.And much more! Enjoy! We certainly did! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The French elections will likely reverberate across Europe. Perhaps even alter the course of the war in Ukraine.The UK will now see the final death throes of the Tory Party. Farage is on the cusp of another victory. Of sorts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The most inept election campaign in history? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is The Other Hand behind the demise of Sinn Fein? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

An immediate post-budget Irish election? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How far can EU rate cuts diverge from the US? And much more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jean-Claude Juncker, ex-head of the EU Commission, once famously said that policymakers know what is the right thing to do, but don't know how to get re-elected if they do it. That is true too much of the time. But is there a unique opportunity for the Irish government, for once to do the right thing and to be rewarded for it at the ballot box?Finance Minister McGrath has promised a tax-cutting budget. Is he missing a trick? Housing has such political salience in Ireland, if he threw the kitchen sink at building more homes instead of tax cuts, maybe that is also a vote-winning strategy? And also an opportunity to give Sinn Fein a good kicking while they are down?Meanwhile, data emerges that shows the Irish tax system becoming even more unbalanced. That's storing up problems for the future.San Francisco hasn't had an earthquake lately but its commercial property sector is crashing. Vacancy rates are probably higher that the 30+% reported as some big companies are effectively squatting in very under-utilised space. Why not just covert all this space into housing? Lots of other cities, including Irish ones, are in the same position.Rishi Sunak's damage limitation exercises backfire. Labour can't believe its luck.Keir Starmer's irish influencers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK election dominates headlines that should be about China simulating war Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.