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Chainlink comes out with new AI tech that could help institutionals use blockchains even more, Bitcoin is doing its usual Uptober moves with positive ETF inflows and Maker is struggling with a rebrand 00:00 Intro 00:23 Preview 00:48 Bitcoin 04:26 Chainlink 07:56 Sky 2 Maker 09:29 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its interest rates by 25bp yesterday, in a widely expected and priced in move. Chief Christine Lagarde sounded optimistic about the disinflationary process. The expectation now is that the ECB will cut its rates at every policy meeting until March. Next stop: December. As such, the Stoxx 600 gained and the euro sold off after the ECB decision. The EURUSD hit 1.0811 but the pair’s weakness was partly due to strong-looking economic data from the US. Corporate data is also on the bulls’ side. The stronger-than-expected TSM and Netflix earnings defy the waning need for unnecessary Fed cuts. Elsewhere, the latest data from China printed a slower-than-expected growth in the latest quarter, but industrial production and retail sales jumped more than expected in September. The CSI is set to close the week on an improved note and US crude should see support near $70pb level. Listen to find out more!

It’s yet another day of stimulus announcements in China, and another round of letdowns for investors. Chinese authorities today announced to almost double the amount it deployed to support what’s called ‘white list’ projects but investor appetite barely improved. Copper, iron ore futures are down and US crude is under pressure. Elsewhere, the US dollar extends gains across most majors. Softer-than-expected British and Canadian figures weigh on sterling and Loonie, while the EURUSD sank below the 200-DMA ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision and Lagarde’s post-decision presser. In equities, Morgan Stanley announced better-than-expected results as its peers and TSM earnings beat estimates hinting that Nvidia may have had another very good quarter. Listen to find out more!

While Bitcoin and Ethereum are competing in terms of price gains, Uniswap is launching their own L2 chain Unichain! 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:44 Bitcoin 02:44 Ethereum 05:17 Uniswap 08:26 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Europe’s biggest company revealed its results a day earlier – by accident – and the results were not good at all. ASML booked about half of the orders pencilled in by analysts last quarter as demand outside AI continued to struggle. Then, the US announced yesterday that it will restrict the advanced chip exports from Nvidia to AMD to countries that do have connections to Gulf countries, for national security reasons. The shares dipped. Elsewhere, crude oil sold off heavily for the second session on relief that Israel is planning to hit Iran’s military rather than its energy structure. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $70pb level. The US dollar consolidated gains, the EURUSD extended losses, while Cable sold off below the 1.30 on the back of softer-than-expected inflation report. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 hit its 46th record high of the year on Monday, Nvidia erased all the summer weakness and flirted with ATH levels as well after the company CEO Jensen Huang said that the next generation Blackwell chip – which suffered some delay – is now ‘in full production’ and that the demand for it ‘is insane’. Around 6% of the S&P500 companies revealed their earnings and nearly 80% reported a positive EPS surprise according to FactSet. And positive vibes could continue as we dive deeper into the earnings season. If nothing, analysts cut their earnings expectations for the Q3 gradually to around 4% growth, whereas this expectation was near 8% in summer. Yet the companies themselves have a guidance for about 16% growth in earnings. Today, Goldman, Bank of America and Citigroup will go to the earnings confessional, tomorrow Morgan Stanley, again tomorrow ASML, then on Thursday we will focus on TSM and Netflix results. Voila. Fasten your seat belt. In FX and commodities, the US dollar extends gains on softening dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and oil is down on fading China optimism, OPEC’s lower demand growth forecast and Netanyahu’s willingness to target Iran’s military rather than its oil facilities. Listen to find out more!

China said there will be a significant bond issuance to help reverse the deepening property crisis and local governments, but didn’t put numbers on their plans. Israel didn’t attack Iran but some reports hinted that the Israeli army could be narrowing their targets on military and energy infrastructure. As such, crude oil kicked off the week downbeat. The barrel of US crude is trading below the $75pb mark in the early ours of Monday trading, Chinese stocks are mixed, the Aussie is under pressure. In the US, Friday’s US producer price data was mixed, and the bank earnings were better-than-expected. The US dollar extended gains, and the S&P500 hit a fresh record. More earnings from big banks and Big Tech are due this week, along with a 25bp cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) that will accompany the latest Eurozone and UK CPI figures. Listen to find out more!

Oops. Inflation in the US came in hotter-than-expected in September and weighed on the mood at the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves’ camp. The US yields and the dollar strengthened, major US indices whipsawed, but the reaction was mixed and the markets traded up and down in disbelief that the Fed may have been wrong in cutting rates by 50bp last month. Due today, the PPI data could confirm that the last mile to bring inflation down to 2% won’t be a walk in the park. Either way, the bank earnings will steal a part of the investor attention to the earnings season today. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will open the dance, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Bank of America will report next week and provide some insights regarding the overall health of the economy. In energy, crude oil lower this morning but oil bulls could have a say into the weekend as China will unveil more details about its fiscal stimulus plans on Saturday and tensions in the Middle East remain on the headlines. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 hit its 44th record this year on Wednesday and the US dollar index pushed into the medium-term bullish consolidation zone. The Chinese CSI 300 rebounded on details about liquidity tools designed to facilitate institutional share purchases and on hope that the Saturday briefing from the government would give investors what they want: SOLID FISCAL STIMULUS. Market sentiment isn’t bad; copper, iron ore and US crude are better bid today. Today will bring the latest CPI update to investors’ attention. The Federal Reserve (Fed) members may have shifted their focus from inflation to jobs. But stickiness in US core inflation could get the market question the Fed’s relaxed stance regarding its dovish ambitions! Listen to find out more!

Aave has been performing really good over the past few months. Is that the end of the DeFi Death Valley? 00:00 Intro 00:24 Preview 00:47 Bitcoin 03:40 Ethereum 06:19 Aave 08:10 AI Coins 10:35 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Chinese authorities think that the country could achieve its 5% growth target with the stimulus measures that have already been announced, but investors not much so. Chinese stocks are further sold off, while bleeding in energy and commodities slow down. Elsewhere, the major US indices move independently from the Chinese news, the US dollar is flat into today’s FOMC minutes and tomorrow’s CPI update. The EURUSD is also waiting impatiently near a major Fibonacci level before taking a fresh direction. Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets will ease and the US dollar will further rebound and step into the medium-term bullish consolidation zone, or the dollar will remain in the bearish trend building since summer and leave other currencies with vulnerable gains. Listen to find out more!

The week started on an ugly note except for those who have a long exposure to energy related assets. The crumbling dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations at the wake of a blowout jobs report from the US, the lack of further stimulus measures from China and the mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East give investors a hard time at the start of this week. US yields and the US dollar are up, major counterparts are down, oil swings between gains and losses, copper and iron ore futures are heavily sold. The VIX index is rising Listen to find out more!

Surprise! The US economy added more than 250’000 new nonfarm jobs last month, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and wages grew faster than expected both on monthly and on a yearly basis. On a yearly basis, the US workers earned 4% more on average compared to a year ago. On top, the strikes at the US ports were paused until mid January and the goods are being moved until further notice. The US treasuries got heavily sold off on Friday, the US dollar jumped, the EURUSD slipped below 1.10, Cable fell to 1.3070 and the USDJPY rallied past the 148 level. The US dollar is better bid at the start of this week, but the US inflation report due Thursday could temper some of this bullish momentum. The US headline inflation is expected to have further eased from 2.5% to 2.3% in September. But core inflation is still above the 3% mark. Listen to find out more!

Global headlines were shaken yesterday by the news that Israel is considering striking Iran’s oil facilities, and that Joe Biden may let Israel do it. Oil surged. Even though the rising oil prices should not last long (hopefully), they may have an impact on the short and medium-run inflation outlook. That, combined with strikes in US East and Gulf coasts are inflationary. The spike in energy prices and supply chain disruptions were the main responsible for the soaring global inflation after the 2020s. Of course, today’s situation is not comparable to the pandemic period, but could – maybe - get the Federal Reserve (Fed) members question their overly optimistic view on inflation, and their overly dovish stance on rates. The expectation of another jumbo rate cut is melting by the day. And the selloff in Japanese yen and the British sterling add to the positive pressure in the US dollar. Today’s US official labour data will be very important in providing a final conclusion to the week’s so far stronger-than-expected jobs figures. Listen to find out more!

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East gets tenser, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves get worried with the sight of better-than-expected jolts and ADP report announced earlier in the week. The US yields and the dollar extended recovery, stocks stagnated. The broadly stronger US dollar, combined with a slide in the euro area inflation below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% inflation target justifies a further selloff in the EURUSD, while the USDJPY sharply reversed course after the new Japanese PM said that the Japanese economy is ‘not ready yet for further rate hikes’. In energy, crude oil failed to clear a major Fibonacci resistance as EIA data showed 3.9-mio barrel build in US inventories last week. Some voices are favouring a rise to $100pb level, but the macroeconomic challenges give little support to such a rally in oil prices – even with the messy geopolitical setup in the Middle East. Listen to find out more!

After a strong September, everyone wonders whether Bitcoin can keep up the good performance for October. So Uptober or Downtober for crypto and co? 00:00 Intro 00:25 Preview 00:40 Bitcoin 04:10 Ethereum 07:16 Solana 10:19 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Risk off reins. First, the US east and gulf ports went on a strike on Tuesday, as expected. It will cause supply disruptions and increase the price pressures before November presidential elections. Then, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified after Iran has reportedly fired about 200 missiles on Israel as response to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel said it will retaliate. The involvement of Iran could in fact lead to a wider and a more serious conflict across the region, and threaten oil supply. This is why, the barrel of US crude gained more than 3.50% yesterday. Elsewhere, euro area inflation slipped below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target, while the US data gave mixed signals regarding the health of the jobs market. All eyes are on the ADP report for more clues! Listen to find out more!

The Chinese stocks extended gains on Monday as China announced more stimulus measures and investors rushed to buy before the markets closed for national holiday today. The CSI 300 index jumped more than 8% on Monday and was up by a whopping 26% in six sessions. But the S&P500 gained barely 1% over the same period. Maybe, Powell gets worried that the Chinese measures would boost inflation, along with the potential price risks from the US port strikes due to begin today? Whatever it is, the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves were on the retreat yesterday, the euro doves gained field. All eyes are on the EZ inflation and US jobs data. Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off with another bull run in Chinese stocks on further stimulus news. The Chinese stocks extended their rally, iron ore gained, the AUDUSD, preparing to test the 0.70 cents level as Australian stocks extend rally to fresh ATH. Over in Europe, growth and China-sensitive European stocks are also having their share of the Chinese pie. The Stoxx 600 index closed the week at an ATH. LVMH gained 20% in just a week. In separate news, inflation data from France and Spain came in lower than expected. More figures are to flow in between today and tomorrow to keep the EURUSD offered near the 1.12 level – even against a broadly softening US dollar. US dollar remains under pressure after last Friday’s soft PCE reads, and before this week’s jobs data. Across the Channel, Cable consolidates a touch below the 1.34 level and the FTSE 100 is better bid. Even oil – shattered by Saudi’s decision to focus on expanding market share - seems to be boosted by the Chinese stimulus news since last Friday. In Japan, mood is totally different since last Friday. Last week’s elections in Japan resulted in a surprise win of Shigeru Ishiba, who is known for his preference for higher interest rates. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 printed its 42nd record high this year yesterday on the back of a mix bag of economic and corporate news. Due today, the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation, the core PCE index, will determine whether the soft landing dreamers will carry the US stock rally to fresh record levels. Elsewhere, the mix of Chinese monetary and fiscal stimulus measures continue to boost Chinese and China-related stocks. LVMH jumped 10% yesterday. Crude oil remains under pressure on reports that Saudi Arabia will drop its price target and focus on expanding its market share. And finally, in Europe, the soft CPI reads from France and Spain will likely set a ceiling on EURUSD near 1.12, of course, if the data from the US doesn’t come with a big surprise. Listen to find out more!

The global economy is settling into a newfound stability and central banks can continue to cautiously cut rates, said the OECD yesterday, but warned that the major central banks should maintain their data-dependent approach and be ‘prudent’ while cutting their rates. The UK economy will do particularly fine they said, despite the sticky core inflation on the island. Alas, the upbeat outlook from the OECD, the rising tensions in the Middle East, the 4.5-mio barrel dive in US oil inventories last week (that pushed the US oil inventories to the lowest levels in 2.5 years) and the big stimulus measures from China did little to cheer oil investors up. US crude slipped below the $70pb again. Investors are waiting for the US GDP update, expected to confirm a 3% growth in Q2. The S&P500 and Nasdaq consolidate near ATH levels, as Micron rallies 15% on the back of strong outlook on AI demand. The US dollar reverses yesterday’s gains and the USDCHF consolidates near 0.85 before the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision. Listen to find out more!

The S&P500 celebrated its 41st record high yesterday on rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets. Chinese equities extended rally as well as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its MLF rate this morning, on top of the measures announced earlier this week. Global mining stocks are shining. Elsewhere, the US dollar weakens and the dollar’s weakness masks the gloomy fundamentals of the European economies. Gold and oil remain bid on the back of geopolitical tensions. Listen to find out more!

Support from the world’s major central banks, and the dovish expectations continue to rise this week. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced more stimulus measures, the Federal Reserve (Fed) members hinted at more – and maybe big – rate cuts while the soft set of PMI data in the euro area boosted the European Central Bank (ECB) doves as well. There is one central bank that stands out in the middle of a jungle of doves and that’s the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged for the 7th consecutive meeting today and its Governor said that they don’t care about what the other central banks do, that they are focused on their domestic economy, that the board wants to see inflation come firmly back to 2-3% range and that they were not expecting to cut rates in the near future. Voila, that’s pretty clear. The Aussie hit the highest level this year against the greenback on the back of the clear divergence between the RBA and the others, and supportive factors are gathering for a further Aussie strength against both the USD, EUR and the JPY. Listen to find out more!

Risk is on, sentiment is great since the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the end of policy tightening with a 50bp cut. This week, the US will reveal the latest PMI figures, the third estimate of its Q2 GDP growth and the core PCE index – also expected to give the market bulls enough room to extend the risk rally. The Eurozone CPI updates could revive the European Central Bank (ECB) doves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to stay pat, but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also seen cutting its rates. As such, oil and energy could eventually see the benefits of the reflation trade, as well. And there is an interesting intersection between Big Tech and its AI projects and energy markets, and that’s nuclear. Listen to find out more!

The Fed began easing its monetary policy with a big, fat 50bp cut. The markets first didn’t know what to make out of the decision, but the bulls are back in joy since yesterday: the S&P500 and Dow Jones trade at record high, the dollar is under pressure. Fed’s optimism that inflation will deal with itself is cool, but it’s a view that the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers didn’t share yesterday when they almost all voted to skip an interest rate cut in the UK this month – despite softening inflation in the UK as well. Listen to find out more!

Today, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely end the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle of its modern history. It is expected to start cutting its interest rates, update its economic projections and reveal its latest dot plot. While a rate cut is fully priced in, investors can’t agree on whether the Fed should cut by 25 or 50bp? There is roughly 50-50 chance asses to one scenario or the other. Today’s episode is a pure Fed-overdose. Listen to find out more!

Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves are going seriously ahead of themselves, or there will be a big disappointment when the Fed will announce its policy decision tomorrow. Or... the Fed will align with the market and give investors want they want, to avoid creating further panic. The expectation of a 50bp is now assessed nearly 70% chance. US yields and the dollar are softening, the equities are holding on to their gains, precious metals see demand and US crude jumps above $70pb. In individual news, Intel jumped more than 6% yesterday on news that it sealed a deal with Amazon’s AWS. According to the news, the companies will co-invest in a custom semiconductor for AI computing. Intel also confirmed that it will well separate its foundry business from the rest, to unlock its external foundry potential by giving its customers a better image of independence of its foundry unit. The news pleased investors, for once. A growing number of companies are exploring the potential of developing their own custom chips, a vision that Intel’s independent foundry services could help bring to life. Listen to find out more!

We are heading into a busy week with major central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce their latest policy verdicts this week. The Brits and the Japanese are expected to remain seated on their hands and the Fed will certainly lower its rates this week. But by how much – is the million-dollar question! Wagers for a 50bp cut are rising into Wednesday’s decision, the US yields ands the dollar are under pressure, gold advances through uncharted territory but oil investors are hard to cheer up. The weak Chinese data continues to support the sellers’ hand and keeps the barrel of US crude offered below the $70pb level. Listen to find out more!

The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday lowered its deposit facility rate by 25bp for the second time this year. But ECB Chief Christine Lagarde kept a poker face for what’s next and said that there is no commitment to a particular rate path. And mixed updates to forecasts didn’t help much either. The European officials revised their growth projections lower for the next two years and kept their inflation forecasts unchanged, but they increased their core inflation forecast for this year and the next. It was like tightening the belt on one side but loosening it on the other. The euro gained, the yields rebounded and equities were lifted higher. Investors also tried to weigh in the 400-page proposal from Mario Draghi to revive the EU’s dormant economy. In the US, the PPI came in higher-than-expected on a monthly basis, but lower-than-expected on a yearly basis. The US 2-year yield remains under a decent pressure, the US dollar remains sold across the board, and equities continue to recover. Gold rallied to a fresh ATH on falling yields and softening US dollar, while crude oil tested the $70pb resistance despite unsupportive news from the IEA. Listen to find out more!

Today we'll talk about Polygon's switch from MATIC to POL as well as Bitcoin's and Ethereum's chart developments. _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The latest US CPI data, and the reaction to data was mixed on Wednesday. The good news is that the headline inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.5% in August, and sank significantly below the 3% level where it was resisting since last summer. But core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – came in line with the expectations on a yearly basis, and slightly higher-than-expected on a monthly basis – and marked the end of the 25 or 50bp cut for next week’s FOMC meeting. It will likely be a 25bp cut, ladies and gents... In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet and most likely deliver its second 25bp cut later today. A 25bp cut is fully baked in the market prices, but there is room to act on what comes next. The decision will either keep the EURUSD afloat above 1.10 or send the pair below this psychological level. Listen to find out more!

The barrel of US crude tumbled almost 4% to nearly $65pb level, as Brent crude slipped below the $70pb mark after OPEC – which is normally optimistic - lowered its demand forecast for the second time in two months. Elsewhere, the debate between Trump and Harris went quite well for Harris, which saw her victory odds climbed to 55, and the latter sent Bitcoin 2.50% lower. Banks sold off on gloomy outlook from big bank CEOs and Big Tech barely reacted to European fines to Apple and Google. Today, all eyes are on the US CPI data. A sufficiently soft set of inflation figures should revive the discussion about the size of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts. Listen to find out more!

The European and US indices rebounded on Monday, though the rebound was probably not based on high conviction, but looked more like the correction of last week’s decent selloff. In the US, the 2-year yield consolidated below the 3.70% level, but the US dollar index rebounded ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data – that will certainly not change the expectation of a 25bp cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) at next week’s policy meeting, but that could – if significantly different than expectations – revive or temper the dovish Fed expectations for the rest of the year. The EURUSD extended losses to 1.1040 and the USDJPY rebounded from August lows. Apple closed nearly flat after revealing its new products yesterday. Apple Intelligence failed to impress. Market’s attention will shift to politics as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will face off in a debate today. Listen to find out more!

Last week ended on an ugly note, really, as the jobs data from the US revealed throughout the week was weak, but maybe not weak enough to tilt the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations toward a clear direction. US yields fell and the equities fell, the USDJPY fell to the lowest levels since August meltdown. And if it’s not enough, the data released in the earliest hours of this week pointed that the Japanese economy recovered slower-than-expected but that the price pressures remained higher than expected in Q2, and that inflation in China came in below estimates as well, not helping to relieve the growing tensions about China and its sputtering economy. The Nikkei index is down by more than 0.60% at the time of writing and China’s CSI 300 is down by more than 1%. US crude fell 1.75% on the back of the mixed US jobs data on Friday, closed last week below the $70pb psychological level, copper futures remain below the 200-DMA. Good news is, US futures are in the positive, hinting that we could see a small rebound after last week’s heavy selloff as attention shifts to Apple’s product reveal, US CPI update and the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. Listen to find out more!

Risk appetite got another hit yesterday after the US ADP report printed a weaker-than-expected number and revived the worries that the US official jobs data could also disappoint for the second month in a row. Many investors believe that today’s job figures could be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting later this month. Why this data is so important? Above all, it is because the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a further weakness in the jobs market is undesired. That’s obviously a good reason for investors to put a lot of weight on the jobs data. But from a theoretical perspective, this month’s jobs data is especially significant as in July, the Sahm’s Rule was triggered, and the JOLTS report showed the vacancy rate fell below the key 4.6% threshold, which could push unemployment to 4.5%, according to Fed’s Waller’s research paper. So investors are holding their breath and bracing for a potentially higher stress and volatility before the weekly closing bell. Listen to find out more!

US equities remained under pressure yesterday after the JOLTS report revealed that the US job openings unexpectedly fell further in July to the lowest level since 2021. The US yields, the dollar and most major equity indices fell. On the other hand, the USDJPY dropped to the lowest levels since the beginning of August as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda added more fuel to fire saying that the bank will continue to raise the borrowing costs if needed. So you understood, we are living a situation of deja vu: rising dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations combined with rising hawkish BoJ bets result in a movement of capital out of the risk of equities, and a flight into the safety of the Japanese yen. But this time around, the price action is not triggered by the actual data, but by the fear of seeing a second month of disappointment in the US jobs data. Today, eyes are on the ADP report. The official jobs data is due tomorrow. While waiting, we will also be watching the ISM figures, Broadcom earnings and the weekly crude oil inventories report. US crude slipped below $70pb yesterday despite OPEC’s earnings that they could step back on their plan to increase production next month. Listen to find out more!

September began on an ugly note, to say the least. The bonds gained and US equities tumbled after the latest ISM data showed a fifth month of contraction in the US manufacturing, and at accelerated pace. The latter revived the recession worries ahead of this week’s critical US jobs data, and sent the S&P500 more than 2% down. This was the worst selloff since August 5, when a weak jobs data from the US had boosted the recession worries, the expectation of a 50bp cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and resulted in an almost 10% selloff of the S&P500. The technology stocks led losses, yesterday. Nasdaq 100 dived more than 3%, as Nvidia tumbled nearly 10% as part of the broader macroeconomic worries and suspected AI fatigue, and another 2.42% in the afterhours trading on news that the DoJ sent subpoenas to the company. Crude oil fell 5%. All eyes are on the US jobs data – which has the potential to either make things worse or throw a floor under the recent risk selloff. Today, the job openings data is expected to show fewer job openings. On Thursday and Friday, the ADP and the official jobs data are expected to show a rebound in hiring and wages. And good news will be good news when the US reveals its latest jobs figures this week. Listen to find out more!

The new week started with caution. The US and Canada were off, and news from Europe weren’t exceptional. The data released on Monday showed that the manufacturing PMI figures for August were slightly higher than expected, but numbers in major Eurozone countries remained below 50, in the contraction zone for another month. Volkswagen announced unprecedented factory closures in Germany. But the European indices gained, along with the euro. Mood is different this morning, with the US dollar broadly in demand against major peers. All eyes are on the US jobs data this week. Investors around the world needs the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start cutting the rates as the sluggish China and slowing developed economies weigh on sentiment. Commodities and metals are under pressure, as mining companies are struggling to maintain the reflation enthusiasm alive. And speaking of enthusiasm or the lack thereof, September is blamed to be a bad month for both equities and credit. And at the historically high levels, with a decent level of uncertainty regarding what the Fed should (and what the Fed will) do, the geopolitical tensions, war, energy crisis and so, there is little to make this September better than the others. Listen to find out more!

August ended on a positive note. Friday’s data showed that the US PCE and the core PCE index stagnated near the levels printed a month earlier instead of a small uptick. Most US and European indices ended August at, or near record high levels, as tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed. This week, attention shifts to the all-important US jobs data this week – the last one before the Fed is due to start cutting its rates in September. This week’s data, could possibly see stronger-than-expected figures for August, which could further tame the jumbo cut expectations for the Fed and favour the scenario where the Fed would cut its rates by 25bp for the three remaining meetings this year. A sufficiently strong data could even boost the expectation that the Fed will cut only 2 times this year, by a total of 50bp. I believe that there is a greater chance for a hawkish revision in Fed expectations than a dovish one. Listen to find out more!

Yesterday was could’ve been worse. A more than 6% drop in Nvidia somehow limited the S&P500 gains, but many stocks in the S&P500 gained yesterday after the latest GDP update came in better than expected and pointed that the US economy has grown 3% in the Q2 versus 2.8% printed earlier, while core prices eased more than expected. The US dollar rebounded, and growth, reflation friendly stocks did well. Among them, the Stoxx 600 came close to a record. The euro weakened on the back of soft German and Spanish inflation update. In Japan, a mixed bag of data helped the USDJPY stabilize near 145 level. Today, the US will release the latest core PCE index, the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation. The data is expected to hint at a tiny rebound in July. A stronger-than-expected read could lead to a further USD recovery. But even in that case, the Fed doves are more interested in jobs data than inflation figures. What would really change the game is… a strong jobs data from the US next week. Listen to find out more!

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Nvidia generated a record $30bn in sales in Q2 – up by 122%, the profits surged 166% to $16.6bn, the company said that they expect to sell $32.5bn in the current quarter (more than $31.9bn expected by analysts) and announced a $50bn share buyback program. It could hardly do better. But investors focused on Blackwell delay & rising competition. Elsewhere, Super Micro Computer dived another 20% yesterday after announcing that they will delay filing its annual financial disclosures – a day after Hindenburg threw mud on the company saying that they had ‘glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures and customer issues’. The delaying of the report naturally raises the odds that they might be right. All in all, mood in the Big Tech is not great this morning. But the British and European futures seem little affected by Nvidia news. The futures point at a positive start this morning, and the waning appetite in Big Tech could cause more rotation toward the non-tech sectors as the Fed is on course to start cutting its interest rates in a couple of weeks. Eyes are on the US GDP update & Eurozone CPI figures for the next two sessions. Listen to find out more!

The markets were calm yesterday, the European stocks extended gains, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq consolidated a bit lower than their ATH levels. A $69bn sale of US 2-year debt went well, the US 2-year yield extended losses and the US dollar rebounded from the lowest levels of the year. Crude oil, which rallied to its 200-DMA on mounting tensions in Middle East and Libya, failed to break offers at this level and fell nearly 2% as most traders brought the global growth concerns and the sluggish Chinese recovery back on the table. The barrel of US crude eased to $76pb level and is consolidating near this level this morning. We will probably have another calm trading session today, as investors will not be willing to move mountains before they see the latest results from Nvidia, that are due to be released today, after the closing bell. The expectations for Nvidia’s Q2 results are sky-high, of course. In numbers, Nvidia’s own revenue forecast is a whopping $28bn of sales in the Q2 of this year. That’s more than the double of the money the company made a year ago And the market expectations are even more than that: they range between $27 and $32bn. Listen to find out more!

The week started on mixed feelings. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and between the West and China, and a pullback across the big technology stocks casted shadow on the optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to start cutting the interest rates in September. The US yields and the dollar rebounded on Monday. Crude oil jumped on the tense geopolitical environment in the Middle East and on rising tensions within Libya. In China, the market selloff continues; the CSI 300 index trades at the lowest levels since February. Canada announced that it will impose tariffs of 100% on Chinese-made EVs and 25% on steel and aluminium to protect its domestic manufacturers. The Chinese e-commerce giant PDD – the owner of Temu – plunged nearly 30% on Nasdaq and recorded its biggest one-day lost ever, after the company warned of slowing sales as the competitors like Alibaba also increase efforts to attract budget-aware customers. Zooming out, KraneShares CSI China internet ETF posted its worst weekly outflow in 2 years, as investors moved money into EM bonds on Fed rate cut bets. Listen to find out more!

‘The time has come for policy to adjust, and the direction of the travel is clear’ said Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole speech on Friday and kept the door open for large cut bets. US yields and the dollar softened, equities rallied. All eyes are on the US GDP update and the core PCE data, before next week’s all-important jobs report. Elsewhere, the Eurozone countries will reveal their flash August inflation numbers and any softness in European inflation figures could revive the European Central Bank (ECB) doves and balance out the dovish Fed expectations. In energy, Us crude gained on Friday along with risk assets, and bulls are joining in this morning on news that Israel has declared a 48-hour state of emergency after launching a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah sites in Southern Lebanon, in anticipation of a response to last month’s assassination of its military chief. In individual equities, Nvidia earnings are due after the Wednesday’s closing bell, and the expectations remain sky-high. Listen to find out more!

US stock markets sold off yesterday, as investors trimmed their long positions walking into Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech due later today – where he is expected to douse the jumbo rate cut expectations. US yields and the dollar rebounded, equities fell. There is more room for correction as the swap markets still price in 95bp cut from the Fed, and this pricing looks overstretched. We are all holding our breath into Powell’s speech. What has been a calm week could see a last minute volatility. Powell will probably not show up with a game-changing speech today, but his words should temper overpriced cut expectations. If that’s the case, we shall see the US dollar rebound from oversold levels, yet appetite in stocks could remain intact with prospects of lower rates into the year end. Listen to find out more!

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The combination of dovish Fed minutes and the big downside revision to the annual payrolls number (-818K jobs!!) sent the US yields lower and the dollar lower yesterday. Gold consolidated near the $2500 per ounce as the risk on environment directed capital toward the stocks rather than the safe haven gold, while crude oil extended losses to the lowest levels since August despite a 4.6-mio barrel decline in US oil inventories last week. What’s interesting is, about three weeks ago, when the US had released weak jobs data, the US dollar had fallen on the rising recession odds for the US and the stocks had fallen as well but yesterday, the equity market’s reaction to the BLS revision was completely different: they gained! Walking into the meeting, the swap markets are back to pricing in a 100bp cut from the Fed before the end of this year. The latter implies a jumbo rate cut at one of the last three FOMC meetings of the year. And because a jumbo rate cut wouldn’t arrive unless there is a deeper economic and financial trouble, the market pricing of the moment is unsustainable for either the US dollar – which has gone too low with the expectation of a 100bp cut, or the stock markets – which have gone too high with the same expectation disregarding the fact that economic trouble is never good for profitability. Listen to find out more!

There was no major news on the wire to trigger the minor selloff in global equities, so it was nothing else than a correction after a long rally following an ugly meltdown. The US dollar index took another dive, however, and hit the lowest levels since the beginning of January. The EURUSD spiked past the 1.11 level, Cable jumped past the 1.30 psychological mark. Even a dovish statement from the Riksbank and soft inflation numbers from Canada couldn’t prevent the US dollar from extending gains against the Swedish krona and the Canadian dollar. As such the Us dollar is oversold. Gold is nearly overbought at ATH levels and the levels call for correction! Listen to find out more!

The week kicked off on a positive note on expectation that when Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday, he will deliver a strong hint that the rate cuts will begin soon in the US. Both the Big Tech and small companies in the US gained with the thought of an approaching rate cut in the US. Even the energy stocks had a good session despite a heavy selloff in crude oil, which was triggered by the news that Israel accepted a ceasefire proposal in Gaza if Gaza says yes. In individual stock news, AMD announced to buy ZT Systems to increase ‘its capabilities and expertise to optimise solutions at the systems, rack and the data center levels’ to compete with Nvidia. AMD jumped 4.5%. The news didn’t tame appetite for Nvidia, which also rallied more than 4% and closed the session at $130 per share. Even Intel gained yesterday. Elsewhere, the European Stoxx 600 also opened the ween on a positive note and jumped above the 50 and 100-DMA, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 is better bid today after a moody Monday on a yen rebound. I expect the market mood to remain mainly optimistic into the Jackson Hole meeting with no major data points to hamper optimism. The US dollar remains weak – too weak – into that speech, the EURUSD consolidates gains near 1.1080 before today’s CPI read and Cable tests the 1.30 offers supported by relatively strong fundamentals. Actually, the UK printed the best GDP growth among major economies – including the US – in the first half of the year! Listen to find out more!