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The market mood got a further boost yesterday after the latest data release from he US hinted that the economy is not doing that bad, after all. The US yields and the dollar rebounded, stocks and crude oil gained. Investors are now going back to the soft-landing dreaming and that will – along with the rising JPY carry trades – should help the markets close the week on a positive note in Europe and the US. Things look less rosy for China though. Although Alibaba and JD.com are in a better shape today, the Q2 results were less than ideal and the latest data from China was less than appetizing. And the sluggish Chinese growth keeps oil and metals under pressure and counters the reflation vibes. Listen to find out more !

It's been two weeks since I left, and in that time, the markets plunged into chaos. Now that I'm back, things have finally returned to calm waters. In this episode, we talk about the unwind of the yen carry trades, the weakness of the US jobs data and the market’s overreaction to both. We also talk about how inflation numbers are supportive of further rate cuts from the Fed and other major central banks and how these expectations should impact pricing across the FX markets. Listen to find out more!

After the crash last week, Ethereum and the cryptos are slowly coming back. We're looking at the ETF Flows and other news from the blockchain world! 00:00 Intro 00:25 Preview 00:56 Bitcoin 05:10 Ethereum 06:57 Solana 08:20 Ripple 10:08 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

That was one of the toughest weekends in crypto, but is the worst over or still to come? 00:00 Intro 00:20 Preview 00:27 Crypto-Crisis 03:11 Bitcoin & Ethereum 06:12 Solana 06:45 Expectations 07:08 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Trump appeared as a main speaker at the Bitcoin conference, but was he able to convince people? 00:00 Intro 00:22 Preview 00:43 Bitcoin 03:36 Ethereum 05:51 Solana 07:26 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its rate to 0.25% as cautiously expected and announced that it will reduce the monthly bond purchases in a predictable manner. The JGB yields and the yen rose. Across the Pacific, the Federal Reserve (Fed) also started its two-day policy meeting and will announce its decision later today. The Fed is not expected to make a change to its rates today, but is widely and wildly expected to hint at a September rate cut. But that expectation is not helping the major US indices to stay afloat. Beirut explosion, a swift flight to safety and a renewed selloff across the Big Tech stocks weighed on major US indices yesterday. The S&P500 fell 0.50% while Nasdaq 100 slid around 1.40%. Nvidia tumbled 7% to its 100-DMA. But, Nasdaq futures are in a better shape this morning following a 7.5% rally from AMD after raising its forecast for AI accelerators. Microsoft, on the other hand, didn’t blow anyone’s mind when it reported earnings yesterday as Azure growth disappointed. Meta, Amazon and Apple will be revealing their Q2 earnings later this week. Listen to find out more!

There is a sense of hope in the market this Monday morning after Friday’s PCE data boosted the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is getting very close to signaling its first rate cut in September. The US yields and the dollar are under pressure this Monday morning, the euro and sterling are better bid, while tension among the Japanese yen bulls mount ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision; the BoJ is expected to announce QT and lower rates this week. In equities, Friday was a better day for the Big Tech stocks in the US. Roundhill’s Magnificent Seven ETF rebounded 1%. But overall, last week saw accelerated rotation flows as capital moved out of Big Tech and into smaller and non-tech sectors of the market, driven by rising Fed cut bets and disappointing earnings from Google and Tesla. 4 of Magnificent Seven companies : Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon are due to announce their Q2 earnings this week. Their results should not only meet but also beat the sky-high expectations. Elsewhere, crude oil is better bid this morning on mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. OPEC+ will meet this and could announce a delay for scaling back of production cuts. Listen to find out more!

We went from ‘the Federal Reserve (Fed) could hardly cut in September’ to ‘it would be a mistake not to cut in July or September’ (source: Mohammad El Erian’s Linkedin feed) in a blink of an eye. We’ve been seeing the lower S&P500 and Nasdaq countered by a rise in economically sensitive sectors since about two weeks now. And diving into the S&P500, around 300 of the stocks in there actually gained yesterday, US crude rebounded after testing the $77pb support and the Rusell 2000 stocks rallied 1.26% – reinforcing the rotation trend – from tech to non-tech - after the latest growth update showed that the US economy not only secured a 2% growth but grew at an impressive pace of 2.8% last quarter – double the first quarter number which had seen the growth rate fall to 1.4%. Interestingly, the US strong GDP read yesterday didn’t discourage the Fed doves yesterday. All eyes are on the core PCE data today. Unfortunately, European stocks don’t benefit from the reflation vibes as earnings from the European companies fail to keep investors optimistic about the future. Listen to find out more!

Underwhelming results from Tesla and Alphabet painted the equity markets in the red yesterday. The S&P500 experienced its worst selloff since December 2022, Nasdaq 100 tumble as Roundhill’s Magnificent 7 ETF dropped more than 6% yesterday. Also, from a broader perspective, the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut expectations are rising is not positive for the Big Tech stocks as these behemoths were seen as a safe place to hide when the rates were high, and could see their advance wane due to a sector rotation. For the bears who were waiting in ambush, the time of correction may have come and could erase 10-15% from the S&P500 if the upcoming earnings can’t turn the wind. In the FX, the fact that the Fed and the market is preparing to cut should keep the US dollar index under pressure, although the rising Fed cut bets also softens the dovish central bank expectations elsewhere and should limit the potential weakness of the greenback. The long yen trade is gaining momentum. The USDJPY fell to 152.23 due to rising bets on a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and the unwinding of carry positions. The major risk is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might refuse to hike next week, causing the entire long yen trade to collapse. But that’s probably just a bad thought. Listen to find out more!

The first view on Big Tech earnings wasn’t inspiring. Tesla’s earnings missed estimates for the 4th consecutive quarter as revenue from car sales declined 7%. Shares slashed almost 8% in the afterhours trading. Over at Google, the parent Alphabet reported the smallest earnings beat since early 2023 and the share price fell 2% in the afterhours trading. As such, two of the Magnificent 7 stocks failed to create euphoria when they reported their Q2 results yesterday. The S&P500 and Nasdaq both closed yesterday’s session with small losses, and the futures are both in the negative this morning. In Europe, the news weren’t much better. LVMH saw its ADRs decline almost 5% after announcing that revenue in China-region fell 14% in Q2 – in line with a broad-based weakness in other luxury houses across Europe as well. Copper futures are down by 20% since the May peak, while US crude cleared the 200-DMA without much problem despite a 3.9-mio-barrel fall in US oil inventories last week In the FX, the US dollar index was slightly stronger yesterday despite weak data, the euro and sterling retreat while the yen strengthens on bets of Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike next week. Later today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to cut rates by 25bp. Listen to find out more!

Week started on a bullish note in Europe and the US as Jow Biden’s decision to leave the presidential race didn’t impact the market mood. Major US and European indices rebounded, mega cap led gains and the US dollar weakened. Tesla and Google are due to report earnings today after the bell, and their results – or the reaction to their results – could shift the wind in either direction. In energy, US crude slipped below the $80pb psychological and Fibonacci support and tipped a toe below the 200-DMA despite a surprise People’s Bank of China (PBoC) rate cut, the reflation-positive market environment and supply concerns on rising geopolitical tensions in the Mid-East and Canadian wildfires. Listen to find out more!

Joe Biden threw in the towel and announced that he quits the presidential race this weekend. The early polls show that Harris is a favourite to become the new Democrat nominee, but that Donald Trump is still expected to win the November’s presidential election. The Trump trade could lose some steam but will probably not get reversed if Harris doesn't make a material difference in the polls quickly. The latter expectation was reflected with a brief post-announcement selloff and a rebound in Bitcoin. The US dollar is slightly softer across the board. Stock futures in Europe and the US are in the green while the Treasuries show muted reaction with small gains at the beginning of a new week. But the week started looking unappetizing in Asia. Equities in Australia and China fell despite a surprise rate cut announcement from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), while TSM kicked off the week with a 3% fall after last week erased more than 3.5% from the technology-heavy Nasdaq stocks in the US. The S&P500 fell nearly 2% over the week, while the Russell 2000 printed a 1.50% advance despite erasing more of the earlier gains on Friday. Markets will focus on US GDP update, core PCE index and earnings from Tesla and Google this week. Listen to find out more!

TSM announced better-than-expected quarterly results and lifted its growth projections for this year’s revenue. Good news helped limiting the previous day selloff in chip stocks yesterday but couldn’t prevent the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 from closing Thursday’s session with losses. Week brings a lot of questions regarding the remaining potential of the AI rally… In politics, Biden is under an unbearable pressure to leave the presidential race because he is too old. Many Democratic heavy weights are now turning their back against the President. Even Barrack Obama said he should consider stepping down. And there are rumours that he could throw in the towel as early as this weekend. If that happens, we could see the Trump trade gain further momentum. Some ask how long this Trump trade will last. The answer is a few weeks, maybe a few months, time to give the non-tech pockets of the market to catch their breath and the tech to correct following a breathtaking year-and-a-half rally. But in fine, factors like the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks’ policy decisions, the international trade tensions, the global growth prospects, China, climate and idiosyncratic factors like AI should say the last word on the overall direction of the global stock markets. Listen to find out more!

While everyone is speculating on how the ongoing international trade war could worsen if Donald Trump returns to the White House, it was Joe Biden who delivered a blow to the market yesterday as his administration told allies that it’s considering severe restrictions if companies like the Japanese Tokyo Electron and Dutch ASML keep providing China the tools they need to access advanced chip technology. Chipmakers tanked and pulled major indices lower. Let’s see if earnings from Netflix and TSM could put a smile back on investors’ face and help TSM – which lost 8% yesterday – recover a part of these losses. Yesterday’s big tech selloff hit sentiment in small caps too. The Russell 2000 gave back 1% as the US 2-year yield rebounded slightly on cautious comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Christopher Waller’s comments that the Fed is getting ‘closer’ to cutting rates but he needs more evidence that inflation is on a solid downside trajectory to back a concrete move. The selloff in the US dollar index accelerated as the index pulled out a crucial Fibonacci support – the major 38.2% retracement on year-to-date rally. The move was helped by suddenly stronger Japanese yen (suspected to have benefited from a new FX intervention) and stronger Cable following yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK. The EURUSD consolidates. Listen to find out more!

Has the German government completed the sell off of their Bitcoins? Can we finally return to up only? Let's see... 00:00 Intro 00:24 Preview 00:53 Bitcoin 04:22 Ethereum 05:48 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The S&P500 hit a fresh record this year for the 38th time on Tuesday, banks rallied on earnings which showed that the big banks’ trading revenue jumped nearly 20% in Q2 and investment banking revenues rose significantly on increased dealmaking. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 lagged, with smaller gains. The Russell 2000 rallied another 3.5%, on the other hand, hinting at a developing sector rotation from Big Tech to others. Gold gained, oil fell, and the US dollar is under pressure, as the EURUSD drills above the 1.09 mark and Cable tests the 1.30 offers after a set of stronger-than-expected inflation data eased the Bank of England (BoE) rate cut bets for August. Listen to find out more!

The market uncertainties loom as different trades – Trump trade, reflation trade, China trade and AI trade – have diverging impact across regions and sectors. On the data front, investors will focus on Canadian inflation print and the US retail sales, and UK inflation and jobs data later this week. Retail sales in the US are expected to have fallen 0.2% in June. Such weakness would back the Fed’s easing inflation story and further reinforce the expectation of a September Fed cut. We could then see the US dollar index make a decisive move below a major Fibonacci support and help major peers clear important resistances. Listen to find out more!

Donald Trump got this close to being assassinated this weekend while he was giving a speech in an election rally. The tragic event boosted the chances that Trump will win the presidential election in November. Bitcoin rallied, gold remains surprisingly unreactive as the US dollar gained and futures point to gains at the open as investors will increasingly focus on earnings. Besides big banks, Netflix and TSM are due to release earnings this week. In the FX, the euro is set to extend gains against the USD ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting while Cable could see resistance near the 1.30 mark ahead of Wednesday’s CPI update. In energy, US crude is under pressure following sluggish Chinese growth data as the Chinese Communist Party starts a once-in-five-years meeting to address major issues in the country. Listen to find out more!

The softer-than-expected US CPI data sent the US yields and the dollar tumbling, and most majors rallying against the greenback. The USDJPY particularly attracted attention as traders tried to understand whether the move was natural, or it was somehow exacerbated by a Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention. In equities, the S&P500 and Nasdaq fell sharply yesterday after the US CPI data. The sharp rise in Fed rate cut bets and falling yields looked like they didn’t give support to the major US indices, but they did. The S&P500’s equal weight index jumped 1.20%. The flight from Big Technology to other sectors, the reflation trade, was big like a mountain at yesterday’s trading session. But it also came as a proof that, no matter how hard the other sectors rally, if the bleeding in Big Tech stocks is not contained, the major indices will suffer. Today, attention shifts to earnings. The Us big banks will open the dance today. Listen to find out more!

Why was the ETH ETF delayed, will we see it before August? In today's episode we'll talk all things ETF (also Solana!) 00:00 Intro 00:24 Preview 00:53 Bitcoin 03:59 Ethereum 07:06 Solana 08:48 Subscribe & Good bye #crypto #cryptonews #cryptotrading #swissquote _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The S&P500 and Nasdaq renewed record as bonds remained bid and US dollar soft after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony and ahead of today’s US CPI update. Technology stocks led gains on encouraging news from Taiwan, Apple rallied nearly 1.9% on optimistic iPhone sales forecast, US crude jumped after tipping a toe below the $81pb yesterday as the latest EIA data showed a 3.4-mio barrel fall in US oil inventories last week and as OPEC revised its global economic growth forecast slightly higher to 2.9%. A set of data above expectations could slow down the doves and call for a correction in both equity and bond markets into the weekend. Figures in line, or ideally softer-than-expected - if also combined with soft weekly jobless claims - should keep the Fed doves in charge of the market, further boost appetite for bonds and pressure yields and the US dollar to the downside and give a further support to the equity rally. Listen to find out more!