Real Vision: Finance & Investing

The Interview: How you feel about gold, bitcoin, the Fed, or MMT probably has to do with how you answer the question, "What is Money?" In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Rohan Grey, assistant professor of law at Willamette University, argues that money is a construct of the law and as such is rooted in the social contract. In addition to discussing the importance of understanding this dynamic and its implications for crypto, MMT, and the banking system, Green and Grey explore the role of the law in society more broadly. Together they discuss the never ending dynamic between disruption and regulation, the rise of corporatism and the disenfranchisement felt by citizens who no longer feel able to affect change through the law, and the importance of civil discourse when discussing societies biggest problems. . Recorded on January 13, 2021 Key Learnings: Grey and Green highlight that the "opt out" ideology of hard money enthusiasts is driven by a correct assessment that the system is broken, but that their prescribed solutions will only exacerbate the problem and fail to solve the bigger issue of the disenfranchisement of an overwhelming majority of the populace. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-March5, 2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to make sense of today’s confounding price action. Growthy names plummeted alongside re-opening stocks like cruise lines and airlines, only for a sudden risk reversal to take place midday for all U.S. stock indexes to end the day deep in the green. Harrison and Bennington analyze today’s non-farm payroll numbers, which showed strength in the labor market concentrated in the beleaguered leisure and hospitality sector. After the three explore how rising bond yields impact credit spreads and credit risk, Harrison investigates whether the rotation away from growth and into value and re-opening stocks will be a lasting trend. Farley provides data concerning SPACs, showing that the number of special purpose acquisition vehicles trading below $10 has steadily rose and why this could be another sign of the fragility of growth stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar4,2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s volatile price action in bonds and high beta stocks. Boockvar explains that Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments earlier in the day triggered another sell-off in bonds as the market, emphasizing their fear of inflationary pressures to come in 2021, pushed back on the Fed for staying the course. Harrison and Boockvar explore a few different scenarios where the Fed could begin to move against the rise in rates including ramping up their bond buying programs and implementing yield curve control. They also examine the consequences of these actions and the possibility that the Fed will refrain from intervening until markets begin to break. Finally, Boockvar discusses equities, considering the potential winners and losers in this environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB, Mar3, 2021: In the first segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy shares with Real Vision editor Jack Farley her thoughts on how the ongoing rout in U.S. Treasurys will amplify the rotation away from growth stocks and into cyclical stocks. Alden opines on how the Federal Reserve could aim to reassert control over the bond market, whether it be “Operation Twist” or yield curve control. In the second and final segment, Farley welcomes Howard Klein, founder and partner at RK Equity, to give a strategic update of key parts of the mining sector such as graphite, nickel, and, most notably, lithium. Klein shares news on lithium miners such as Albemarle Corp ($ALB), Livent Corp ($LTHM), and Piedmont Lithium ($PLL), to which Klein is an advisor and is also up over 1000% since September 1, 2020. Klein explains why he thinks we are at the beginning of a commodity bull market and shares his views on MP Materials ($MP) and Nouveau Monde Graphite ($NMGRF). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday. Erik Voorhees, CEO and founder of Shapeshift.io, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss Shapeshift, the transition to a digital currency world, and some of the most exciting projects in crypto. Voorhees shares that Shapeshift was created when he realized that, for the industry to grow, people needed an easy way to swap between digital assets. He believes that society is actively transitioning from an analog fiat system of finance to a digital currency and blockchain one, and he has worked to support this transition with Shapeshift. Voorhees thinks that decentralized exchanges like Uniswap are some of the most important projects being built in crypto today, explaining that it’s critical to be able to trade in a decentralized and permissionless way. Key Learnings: The crypto ecosystem is still very young, but society is actively transitioning its financial systems to it. In order for this transition to happen fully, the sector needs to develop permissionless and decentralized infrastructure such as decentralized exchanges. These noncustodial exchanges are valuable to the security and permissionless nature of the system as a whole. Recorded on Jan 20, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar02,2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro where he declares that the five sigma sell-off in Treasuries last week marks the beginning of a new yield regime that will support a resources-led rally in earnest. Greer points to the dramatic move in rates being a response to visible commodity inflation, which is indicative of its strength. Because Greer sees a resources-led rally emerging, he explains why this is bad news for the tech sector over the next few months. After walking through the signals that are telling Greer that “this time is different,” he discusses how he’s positioning himself and what he’s eyeing in light of these changing market dynamics that continue to escalate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar1,2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is hosted by editor Jack Farley to break down the continued breakout in Treasury bonds as the S&P 500 posts its best day since June. Ed and Jack investigate last week’s carnage at the “belly” of the yield curve, the interest rate risk that long-duration bonds are exposed to, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s ramping up of its QE bond purchases in order to appease the “bond vigilantes” and keep rates pinned. Later, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins the show, and he shares his outlook on the risks that rising yields pose to markets as well as the dramatic rebound in the crypto markets. Raoul updates his views on commodities and emerging markets, sharing his key learnings from his interview with Jim Rogers, which aired today on Real Vision. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay. Real Vision co-founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, to forecast future economic growth and and the fate of fiscal stimulus going forward. With volatility rising and the recovery on ever shakier ground, DiMartino Booth clarifies the macro picture by looking at price action in the bond markets. Pal and DiMartino Booth will exchange their views on how markets will respond to these possibilities and explore the various potential paths that the economic recovery could take. DiMartino Booth will also be answering questions from Real Vision Plus members. Recorded on Oct 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview. Recorded on Jan 11, 2021. Carly Fiorina, founder and chairman of Carly Fiorina Enterprises and 2016 Republican Presidential candidate, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the value and challenges of regulating big tech and the enormous economic power it has amassed across the globe. Hailing from an extensive career in tech and finance as former CEO of HP, she discusses the opportunities that business can bring to the political table and the challenges she faced as a woman in male-dominated industries, and the value of regulating big tech. She also shares her views on current events from the storming of the Capitol to the political climate to the effects of the pandemic on public policy. Filmed on January 11, 2021. Key Learnings: Fiorina argues that focusing on results rather than partisan issues encourages competition and accountability to restore political systems and revitalize the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview- Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal welcomes back Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund devoted to Iranian equities, to discuss how he's identified a diversified economy in Iran despite decades of sanctions and geopolitical risks. His interest in Iran was sparked by the nuclear deal brokered by President Obama in 2015 where he found a stock market that had been operating for more than two decades and included nearly 600 companies with $200 million in daily liquidity. His fund gives Western investors access to fast-growing businesses with low valuations in an array of industries—from utilities and automotive to commodities and agriculture. He shares his perspective on managing volatility as well as how the U.S.-Iran relations are expected to change under a new Democratic administration, and he weighs in on trade with neighboring countries in the Middle Eastern region. Key Learnings: Despite an overall economy that has been rapidly contracting because of U.S. sanctions and weak oil prices, Iran has one of the best-performing stock markets. Iran's stock market is dominated by retail investors with foreign ones making up less than half a percent of the market cap. Wojtal looks for companies that have pure export exposure, and he has been able to find companies with exports in the region that are usually not affected by sanctions. Recorded on Jan 12, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb26,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a deep-dive on how rapidly rising interest rates are transforming the financial landscape before our very eyes. Ed and Ash analyze the latest economic data on rising personal income and share their views on the proposed $15 minimum wage that failed to make it into the stimulus bill. Jack and Ash review price action in stocks and commodities and explain how interest rates are like a financial gravity of sorts. Jack and Ed talk about how rising rates are creating tremendous change within the fixed income market. Lastly, the three discuss ARK Innovation ETF and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s falling below net asset value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to the Daily Briefing to make sense of the massive rout in long-dated Treasury bonds that is perturbing every aspect of the market—from high-flying growth names like Tesla to gold to Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Bianco connects bond market indigestion to that lingering question around inflation, and hazards that industrials and financials will fare the best on a relative basis. Bianco and Harrison look at the Fed Fund futures, which indicate that the market is pricing in a rate hike. They also discuss the outflows out of the series of ARK innovation ETFs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb24,2021: Has speculative mania reached a fever pitch? Will rising Treasury yields drag high-flying growth stocks back to the ground? Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Jared Dillian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to the Daily Briefing to explore these questions and explain how he is navigating these frothy, choppy markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on everything from his bullishness on commercial real estate and energy stocks to his concerns about liquidity mismatches in Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs. Dillian explains to Farley why he is long puts on "growthy" tech names like Tesla and Facebook and notes why he remains very constructive on gold and precious metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Circle co-founder, chairman, and CEO Jeremy Allaire joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss stable coins, regulation, and the problems that Circle is working to solve. Allaire explains that Circle was created to improve the way traditional money, or fiat, was transacted. This vision led the company to helping build out USDC, a fully backed stable coin. Allaire believes that once there is a fiat digital currency model on public networks, this would drive the cost of transacting value close to zero. He also states that regulation of the crypto space implies acceptance from governments and institutions and that this is a good sign for crypto. Filmed on January 14, 2021. Key Learnings: Transacting in the traditional banking system is expensive and slow compared to the new crypto payment and settlement rails. Fiat digital currencies can assist in dramatically reducing the cost of value transactions and can grow the utility of crypto networks dramatically. Consequently, a secure fiat digital currency can encourage governments and institutions adopt crypto networks. Recorded on Jan 14, 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb23,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of how a jittery stock market copes with rising yields. Thornton analyzes this morning’s big sell-off in the NASDAQ with "growthy" names plunging double digits, and he explores whether technology could be poised for underperformance in the coming months. Thornton explains why he is bullish on the energy sector, noting that it is one of the few sectors with a reasonable short interest. Bennington and Thornton then review Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at the Senate Banking Committee, which perhaps was meant to assuage the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb22,2021. Real Vision editor Jack Farley and managing editor Ed Harrison break down how rising yields are impacting risk assets such as growth equities and high-yield bonds. The pair review today’s price action, looking at everything from strength in oil and U.K. travel stocks to the significant sell-off in U.S. tech. Ed gives a primer on how rising yields dilute the value of assets with high duration and tells Jack why vaccination efforts in Europe are lagging behind the rest of the world. Later, Jack is joined by Weston Nakamura, former derivatives trader and head of the Real Vision Exchange, to analyze today’s price action in the Brazilian Real and Brazilian equities, which both plummeted as President Bolsonaro removed the CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. Ed and Jack close by looking at European fiscal as well as taking a sneak peek of tomorrow’s interview with John Hussman and Milton Berg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview, Recorded on January 4, 2021In the fight against COVID-19, lockdowns have become a major policy tool used by governments around the world with a stated goal of limiting the spread of the virus and keeping hospitals from running out of capacity. Nick Hudson, CEO of Sana Partners, and Russell Lamberti, Founder of ETM Macro Advisors, are part of Pandemics Data and Analytics, or PANDA, a collective of leading scientists, actuaries, economists, data scientists, statisticians, medical professionals, lawyers, engineers and businesspeople working to challenge the mainstream narrative around lockdowns using scientific evidence that they argue shows that 1) lockdowns are not effective at their stated goals and 2) the secondary costs of lockdowns far outweigh the potential benefits. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Hudson and Lamberti introduce viewers to their organization and make the case that the COVID-19 response does not square with any of the pre-COVID pandemic response protocols that were updated in late 2019, that the effects of lockdowns on children and other marginalized groups have not been properly considered, and that lockdowns could set a dangerous political precedent. As well, Green plays the role of devil's advocate and challenges both guests on the real problems of measurable excess mortality and dwindling hospital capacity that cannot be denied. More information about PANDA, their members, and methodologies can be found at https://pandata.org. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from editor Max Wiethe, managing editor Ed Harrison, and Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal . Together, they discuss their thoughts on the interviews from Real Vision’s campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?” and explore how these various interviews all connect to what’s occurring in the markets right now. They will also answer questions from the audience about the campaign and Real Vision itself. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb18,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Tyler Neville of Blockworks back to the Daily Briefing to share his thoughts on everything from implied volatility in the credit markets to the ongoing congressional hearings on GameStop’s remarkable rise and fall. Reporting from Austin, Texas, Neville shares his experience amid the ongoing arctic frost that is depriving so many Texans of electricity, heat, and running water as well as disrupting U.S. oil production by over 40%. Neville then shares with Harrison his analysis on lumber and homebuilding stocks and explores whether this crisis will cause secular inflation. Harrison and Neville then turn their gaze to the rising yields of U.S. Treasurys, which Neville thinks could be a wrecking ball for all risk assets. However, Neville argues that the Federal Reserve will enact yield curve control, and it is this possibility which Bitcoin and crypto investors have already “sniffed out.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb18,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe start the Daily Briefing by breaking down the latest stories, ranging from rolling blackouts in Texas to the congressional hearing surrounding GameStop to Berkshire Hathaway’s latest maneuvers. Then, Jack welcomes Eclectica Asset Management founder and former-CIO Hugh Hendry, who tells him about the interplay between real yields, gold, and silver as well as giving Real Vision a sneak peek of his short film, “An Intense Psychotic Cacophony.” Lastly, Jack speaks to Real Vision's Weston Nakamura about a dislocation Weston has noticed in the VIX futures market. For the latest edition of “Inside the Hive Mind,” click here: http://rvtv.io/HiveReportFeb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to provide analysis on the billowy price action in commodities. Greer looks at the market dynamics behind the rolling blackouts in Texas and discusses the oil curve steepening further into backwardation, allowing speculators to generate greater roll yield. Looking at similar phenomena in aluminum and copper, as well as the new relative highs in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ($OIH) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLE), Greer surmises that we could be seeing the dawn of a new bull market in commodities, which may lead to a commodity supercycle. Bennington asks Greer about his latest longs, which include Freeport-McMoran ($FCX) and several homebuilding stocks. Greer explains why he thinks put options offer a low risk/reward even with the VIX barely above 20. In sum, Greer thinks the liquidity faucets from the Federal Reserve will continue to buoy all assets higher, so investors should own assets—not cash. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview, Recorded on December 7, 2020: If you are one of the few who have studied the mechanics of monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system, most of what you learned may be out of date—that is, if you haven’t done so in the last five years. In this interview with Caitlin Long, CEO and founder of Avanti Financial Group, Dr. Manmohan Singh of the IMF explains the massive changes that have come about in the past decade and tries to dispel some of the preconceived notions many have about this complex system. In addition to this focus on the true mechanics of the current system, they also discuss the difficulty of trying to make sense of such an opaque and interconnected global system where laws and data reporting are not uniform from country to country. Moreover, Long and Singh zoom in on the tsunami of change that could be brought about by the growth of digital assets both inside and outside of the traditional financial system, and they highlight the intense focus on these developments by the private banking sector and bodies like the IMF. . Viewers can find more of Dr. Singh's work here: https://www.risk.net/collateral-markets-and-financial-plumbing-3rd-edition and https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Manmohan++Singh&name=Manmohan%20%20Singh Key Learnings: The plumbing of the financial system continuously evolves as institutions, regulations, and technology change. Coming from entirely different perspectives, Long and Singh both stress the level of attention digital assets are receiving from the highest levels of global finance and how important they will be to the future development of the financial system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington and editor Jack Farley to break down recent price action and inspect current market conditions. They analyze the remarkable soaring of Bumble’s stock price after its initial public offering (IPO) with Ash and Ed exploring whether the ongoing market ebullience is evocative of 1999. Ed and Jack then discuss how rising yields for U.S. Treasurys affect banks earnings, the price of earnings, and investor behavior in the credit markets. After the three of them briefly explain how the rise of passive investing is impacting market flows, Ash shares his thoughts on the first publicly traded Bitcoin ETF in North America. Ash, Ed, and Jack relate these topics to recent “Is Everything a Bubble?” interviews with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Lyn Alden, and Russell Napier, and they look forward to next week’s interviews with Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Felix Zulauf, and Mark Yusko. If you are not a member and you want access to these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/l/is-everything-a-bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB:Feb 10,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley delve into what Fed Chair Powell’s remarks indicate about the future of monetary policy and the economy. Max catalogs the rally in cannabis equities and notes that the bulk of the euphoria seems to be located in Canadian pot stocks, which may not be as favorable as their U.S. counterparts. After noting the tremendous volatility in MicroStrategy Incorporated ($MSTR), Jack and Max interpret what today’s reading for the Consumer Price Index, which fell slightly below expectations, means for reflation trades such as banks and energy. They close by giving a sneak peek of upcoming interviews with Julian Brigden, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, and Lyn Alden as part of the “Is Everything a Bubble?” series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB:Feb 9, 2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the oil market rally, signals of incoming inflation and the central bank response to it, and the drop in junk bond yields. Boockvar observes how oil is the last of the major commodities to join the rally as demand starts to catch up and the supply is demonstrating greater discipline, bringing markets into a full commodity rally. Boockvar then zooms out and breaks down the inflationary signals he’s witnessing and expresses his concern about whether an increase in consumer services will contribute to or relieve inflationary pressure. With junk bond yields dropping, Boockvar also explains how this may be due to more investors being pushed out onto the risk spectrum as investment-grade bonds are being perceived to have a Fed backstop. He points out the ever-growing bubble in bond markets and speculates that now is the first time in years where the true triggers for that bubble popping are in motion. He shares what retail investors should be watching out for, how QE has batted away the worst effects of bear markets, what drives the capital flight into the U.S., why the ECB's and BOJ's policies have in reality been more restrictive, and whether the Fed will ultimately have to implement yield curve control. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb7, 2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley discuss Tesla’s decision to buy $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin as a reserve asset on its balance sheet. They then analyze the how rising yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys will impact growth stocks as well as bank net interest margins. Using bank profitability as a jumping off point, Jack notes that the S&P 500 Financials Sector SPDR ($XLF) is at all-time highs, and Ed analyzes why this could be the case, sharing his outlook on the future of the U.S. banking industry. Lastly, Jack and Ed give a sneak peek of the interviews coming up for the “Is Everything a Bubble?” campaign with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Mark Cuban, Felix Zulauf, Lyn Alden, Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Mark Yusko, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Steve Clapham, and many other investors. To share your thoughts about “Is Everything a Bubble?” on the Real Vision exchange, click here: http://rvtv.io/3ju1T6q. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview, recorded on February 1, 2021 .In this interview with Jason Buck of The Mutiny Fund, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes of Alder Lane Farm pulls no punches as he diagnoses the true culprits behind the exponential volatility in stocks such as GameStop: extreme leverage and the hedge funds who use it in order to juice returns. Cohodes argues that hedge funds like Point72 and Melvin Capital are creating significant systemic risk for all market participants, most notably themselves, and he congratulates the retail trades on r/WallStreetBets but warns them that, generally, buying a stock merely because it has high short interest is a very bad idea. He closes by sharing with Buck his personal journey during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Key learnings: The stock market is not a game – it is a serious thing for serious people. The reckless use of leverage ought to be constrained by regulators, and all investors, institutional as well as retail, should be prepared to lose if they are wrong. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: Recorded on December 14, 2020. David Salem, managing partner of Windhorse Capital Management, welcomes Andrew McDermott, president of Mission Value Partners, an investment firm that invests almost exclusively in Japanese equities. McDermott argues that Japan is a hidden repository of balance sheet strength, and he and Salem discuss why Japan's business leaders seem not to exhibit the same bad habits that have ruined so many previously-great American companies, such as Intel and GE. McDermott breaks down his analysis of specific companies such as Hitachi, Sazaby, and Daiichikosho Co., and then he tells Salem about the time Warren Buffett called him to seek out his knowledge and advice on investing in Japan. McDermott and Salem also reflect on macroeconomic factors such as demographics and Japan's government debt burden. Key Learnings: Japanese equities are one of the least-loved and arguably most misunderstood asset classes in the world. But they offer opportunity to the thoughtful investor, as the management of Japanese companies are more prudent and sensible with their allocation of capital. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share how his market framework is evolving. First, Raoul and Ash provide a sneak-peek into Real Vision’s upcoming campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?”, where Real Vision will be featuring high-profile investors such as Lacy Hunt, Felix Zulauf, Mark Cuban, Lyn Alden, Howard Marks, and Joel Greenblatt. Raoul describes the current market environment, stating that investors are record long equities, dealers are record long gamma, and the market, as a whole, is record short Treasury bonds. Raoul and Ash then discuss the outperformance of Ethereum and “altcoins” relative to Bitcoin. Lastly, Raoul shares his views on the speculative fervor in the equity market and compares the short squeeze in GameStop Corp ($GME) to the historic squeeze of German automaker Volkswagen. For the February edition of “Inside the Hive Mind” by Weston Nakamura and the Real Vision Exchange, click here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/inside-the-hive-mind-of-the-real-vision-exchange-feb-2021-issue-02-601d8ab41ab3070a37dcf1e3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Carson Block, CIO of Muddy Waters Capital LLC, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the different forms that financial fraud can take in the corporate world, what happened with GameStop last week, and how changing market structure makes activist short selling increasingly more difficult. Block distinguishes between two types of fraud that corporations can commit—legal fraud and intellectual fraud—and explains how insidious and corrosive the latter type is for companies. Harrison and Block then consider why these companies committing intellectual fraud are not being held accountable and how that leads to decaying faith in public institutions. Block also provides his perspective on the short squeeze in GameStop from last week, exploring how initially a smart retail trade morphed into a different sort of animal. He touches on the financial plumbing occurring behind the scenes and whether it truly is efficient or not, and he shares how he sizes positions for shorts, the growing challenges activist short-sellers face, and his experience while investigating American Tower in 2013. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the first segment, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal speaks to the mayor of Miami, Francis X. Suarez, about his plans to attract talent, jobs, capital, and “anchor tenants” to Miami as well as his embrace of blockchain technology. Mayor Suarez can be found on Twitter at @FrancisSuarez. In the main segment, senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory, about the ways in which the United States can better protect itself from the scourge of COVID-19. Hunt acknowledges that the variants of the virus might impair economic growth yet contends that asset markets might continue to prove resilient. Lastly, Hunt shares with Bennington his view on the run-up in SPACs as well as “meme stocks” such as GameStop ($GME). Bennington concludes by giving a sneak peek of tomorrow’s event, “Bitcoin in the Real World.” Join Real Vision and BlockFi on February 4 for a free one-day online event. RSVP at realvision.com/blockfi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to give an overview of GameStop as $GME and other retail favorites such as $AMC and $BBBY continue to unwind. Tony and Ash discuss the market mechanics behind margin requirements and liquidity concerns with Tony pulling no punches as he discusses key actors such as Dave Portnoy. Tony then proceeds to provide a strategic update on his natural resources trade as crude oil hits a new high and its futures curve enters backwardation. Lastly, Tony shares with Ash his outlook on the FAANG stocks, cannabis, and the velocity of money. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Feb1,2021: Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores how the Reddit mania is spreading from Gamestop to the precious metals market like silver and even SPACs. In the main segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison conducts a data-filled deep dive of the ongoing pressures in GameStop Corp ($GME), looking at factors such as the declining short interest to renewed activity in far out-of-the-money call options. Ed rejects the theory that silver will be the next hotspot of speculative activity and notes that natural gas was actually up more than silver today. Lastly, Ed and Jack discuss potential endgame scenarios for the speculative mania in distressed equities like GameStop, and Ed shares an update on COVID-19 variants. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

RealVision Live Replay, Recorded on September 14, 2020.Global macro investing is one of the most complex styles of allocating capital, as the data sets one has at their fingertips is just so large: non-farm payrolls, currency volatility, even high-frequency foot traffic. In this interview, Amlan Roy, head of global macro research at State Street Global Advisors, speaks to Real Vision CEO about how incorporating demographics within one's macro framework can help find the signal in the noise and give investors an edge. Roy discusses how demographic patterns map onto common macro data, such as growth rates, discount rates, savings rates, as well as interest rates, the ultimate macro statistic. This is the second installment in Raoul's multi-part exploration into how demographics affects global economics and finance.. For Raoul's first interview with chief investment officer Fredrik Nerbrand, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-big-picture/videos/demographics-i-pensions-in-crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: Recorded on Dec 4 , 2020: With cases spiking and economic data surrounding the recovery slowing or outright rolling over in many cases, it appears as though a hard winter is in store for the global economy. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., is well known for having forecasted these types of downturns in the past and, along with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, discusses why he thinks we are in store for another economic downturn this winter. Shilling highlights real economic data like slowing job gains, increased COVID-19 deaths, and the potential for renewed economic shutdowns, but he cautions that the strange correlation, where bad news equals more stimulus and thus is bullish for equities, can draw out irrationality longer than investors might expect — even if stimulus fails to fully replace economic losses in the long-term. Shilling and Harrison also discuss his investment ideas that arise from this forecast: cautiously short equities, short dollar, and long treasuries. Key Learnings: The real economy and market are once again moving in the opposite direction. Shilling argues that this disconnect will close and that the long bond may be the best way to play to it. He also sees the stimulus feedback loop as putting more downward pressure on the dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview. Recorded on Nov5,2020 : Cloud investor Gordon Ritter, founder of Emergence Capital, one of the first venture capital firms to invest exclusively in software-as-a-service, or SaaS, manages portfolio companies that have a market cap of $400B+ and 13 IPOs or exits greater than $500 million, including high-profile exits like Zoom and Salesforce. He joins Real Vision founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, for a conversation about the evolution of the software sector, how fast the SaaS investing market is today, the future of machine learning, the challenges ahead in data privacy, and the digitization of education. Filmed November 5, 2020. Key Learnings: The premise of SaaS is that a piece of software is hosted on a cloud infrastructure (operated through a web browser), and businesses pay a monthly fee to get access to this software. Investors in SaaS companies have reaped huge benefits, and the widespread adoption of SaaS platforms across business and personal applications doesn't appear to be slowing down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan29,2021: In the intro, Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Lily Francus, derivatives trader and PhD candidate in Bioinformatics at the University of California San Diego, about the unique market mechanics that have characterized the run in GameStop Corp ($GME). In the main segment, Ash welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to debate whether the Robinhood ban on trading is unfair and if it reveals unseen holes in the functioning of capital markets. Jack provides data on options flow in $GME, and the three explore whether the wall of gamma will break down or get even higher, agreeing that Monday will be a turning point as this is when $GME calls with higher strike prices could get written (and can be bought by retail traders). Ash and Ed discuss how susceptible the various COVID-19 variants are to the vaccines and how their ominous spread will impact the reflation trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan28,2021: Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about the newest developments in the GameStop story and the market implications of elevated activity in options trading. Floyd expresses his concern over the restricted buying over GameStop and other equities experiencing similar price action that occurred today, stating that it’s bizarre and ludicrous to mandate how traders allocate their capital, which cuts to the core of ongoing social issues. However, he explains that the anger arising from these circumstances is misdirected as the market environment and price discovery has continuously been muddled by regulations and monetary policy. Harrison and Floyd move on to discuss the equity market at large, and he explains that the record number of call options being purchased and puts being sold at open can introduce a destabilizing effect on markets. In light of this high implied volatility, he then expounds on how this impacts futures, the dollar, and time horizons, and what trades he has his eye on now. Jack Farley breaks down the saga of GameStop Corp ($GME) and how forced buying is turning into forced selling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan27,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison sits down with Max Wiethe to discuss how Ed is making sense of the retail assault on short-sellers as an expression of the unfolding of The Fourth Turning. Harrison argues that intergenerational conflict has been brewing outside of the market; however, it now has found its way to Wall Street in the form of Robinhood traders looking to take out the old guard of finance and make a killing in the process. Real Vision’s Peter Cooper kicks it off by examining the various short squeezes occurring across U.S. and European equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Recorded on November 30, 2020. Caitlin Long, CEO & Founder of Avanti Financial Group, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss Bitcoin, Wyoming at the forefront of regulations, and the problems of custody for crypto assets. Long explains the benefits Bitcoin has over many traditional asset classes as well as the concerns brought about by unclear regulations. She sheds light on how and why Wyoming aims to provide the most clear crypto regulatory environment in the US, and she also touches on Avanti, the crypto bank and custody company she founded. Key Learnings: The importance of having clear regulations for crypto assets and their custody can not be understated. As innovative states such as Wyoming remove uncertainty by providing clear regulations, more investors will be able to get exposure to the asset class with confidence. Regulations are becoming more clear, but not all states stand on equal footing, and competitive regulatory environments are emerging within the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan26,2021: Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to break down a day of absurd price action as GameStop skyrocketed 90% today and zoomed an additional 46% during afterhours trading. Tommy and Ash reflect on the shrewd yet reckless speculations of the r/wallstreetbets traders, who pushed hedge funds that were short GameStop like Melvin Capital to the brink, with Tommy noting that this intentional targeting of shorts triggered a record day of long/short degrossing. Turning to technical indicators, Tommy comments on the buying exhaustion he is seeing via DeMARK indicators, saying “this is a bubble that I think could pop at any moment.” He recommends “ringing the register” on successful trades and turning to cash. Tommy closes by giving Ash a long idea: Zynga Inc ($ZNGA). In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin makes sense of the market as company earnings reports take center stage and wild swings resume on heavily shorted stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down the logic-defying price action in highly speculative stocks like Blackberry, AMC Entertainment Holdings, and, most notably, GameStop Corp, which surged over 160% to $159 before plummeting yet still being up on the day. Ed and Jack break down the “short squeezes” and “gamma squeezes” that are inflating those names, particularly GameStop, with Ed interpreting his Real Vision Live with Jim Bianco today and Jack sourcing info from volatility trader Kris Sidial. Lastly, Ed shares his thinking on how the different COVID-19 variants will impact re-opening as well as the reflation trade, which he thinks may have overstepped its bounds. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin describes what happened with GameStop’s volatile trading today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay, Recorded on 24 Sep 2020: Here at Real Vision it’s clear that viewers are keenly focused on Raoul’s unfolding thesis and the potential that the market is teetering between hope and insolvency, but so are many of our contributors. Matt Rowe of Headwaters Volatility Solutions was inspired by Raoul’s recent call for an insolvency phase and in this special edition of Real Vision Live will be putting his corporate credit hat back on to provide a deeper dive into how both credit and equity markets are totally mispricing the insolvency risks looming large post-COVID. Please note that Matt has an extensive background in corporate credit and before founding Headwaters Volatility Solutions was the managing partner of a fund focused on convertible bond and capital structure arbitrage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview, Recorded on December 1, 2020.: Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, welcomes Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for a wide-ranging discussion on international trade and the Eurodollar system. Hendry mounts a nuanced defense of the dollar's role as the global reserve asset, whereas Alden sees a slow but steady de-dollarization happening around the world, which she expects will continue. Hendry and Alden discuss whether China's role in international trade is "mercantilist," and whether its stagnant reserves of U.S. Treasurys is a true macroeconomic bellwether. Lastly, Hendry and Alden look forward to identify potential solutions to these problems, such as digital currencies (Alden's solution) and ultra-negative rates (Hendry's solution). Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos. Key learnings: Alden and Hendry agree that structural forces have prevented the dollar from weakening to the levels implied by its persistent trade deficit. But while Alden thinks the Eurodollar system will expand beyond the control of the U.S., Hendry argues that American commercial banks will continue to control the supply of dollars in reality, and that the U.S. will remain the global monetary hegemon. Hendry has also provided a transcript he has personally edited to clarify some of his points in this interview: https://rvtv.io/3gysJZT Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, joins Real Vision's Jack Farley to share his strategic outlook for assets such as the U.S. dollar, technology and energy stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Vallee explains why he believes that real rates for U.S. Treasury bonds will increase, and he describes why this view makes him believe there could be a capital exodus from technology into energy equities, as well as making bitcoin and gold less attractive to hold for the short-term, although he remains bullish on these two assets over the long-term. Filmed on November 24, 2020. Key learnings: Real rates on U.S. Treasuries will likely rise. Long-term the U.S. dollar will encounter problems, but Vallee spots short-term tactical opportunity as Treasury issuance will create liquidity negative conditions over the next two-to-three months. Vallee is very positive on energy, Latin America, EM debt, as well as commodities relative to U.S. tech and bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan22,2021: Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share his latest thoughts on COVID-19, market froth, and cryptocurrency. Using models from his latest Real Vision Pro report, “Wile E. Coyote,” Raoul plots several dire situations for COVID-19 deaths. Raoul then talks about why he may smell “fire in the room” in the equity market, looking at indicators such as call option volume, activity in the pink sheet stocks, and the sky-high use of margin. Raoul and Ash then discuss the recent pullback in Bitcoin, and Raoul tells Ash what he thinks of alt coins and the risk/reward they offer to investors. Raoul reflects on the recent flatness in bond yields and the dollar, and he explores whether macro investors are turning toward crypto markets because that’s where the action is happening. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down today’s economic data release for the PMIs from Germany, France, and the U.S. as well as IBM’s earnings disappointment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Jan21,2021: Michael Lebowitz, partner at Real Investment Advice, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss where inflation is headed and whether the market’s bet on the Fed getting it right this time has merit. Lebowitz discusses the nature of market price action for the past several months as risk assets have caught on fire and sector rotation has been occurring with incredible speed. With the growth of M1 and the velocity of money moving in opposite directions, Harrison and Lebowitz explore how the Fed might have to rethink their quantitative easing (QE) operations in order to achieve their goals of generating inflation. In light of this context, Lebowitz discusses his investment approach in this market environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin checks out the markets on the first full day of President Biden’s holding office. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB - Jan20, 2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to update his views on how yield curve steepening is affecting equity markets and his three potential outcomes for the reflation trade. Harrison and Wiethe also debate whether the reflation trade is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario and tee up Real Vision’s big content campaign for February where we attempt to answer the question, “Is Everything a Bubble?” In the intro, editor Jack Farley reviews price action and analyzes Morgan Stanley's latest earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Ari Paul, CIO & managing partner of BlockTower Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the launch of Paul's fund, value accrual in the crypto space, and how far along we are in this crypto bull market. Paul explains how he views the risk curve and how he filters through crypto projects. He describes the importance of understanding timing in the markets and how he believes crypto markets have dramatically more alpha in them than traditional markets. He closes by discussing the recent regulatory attention that the crypto space has received. Key Learnings: Paul explains the game theoretical concerns of crypto hard forks and how minority chains are insecure. He believes, "We are only in the 4th inning of this bull market cycle." Paul and Pal state that there is significantly more alpha to be found in crypto markets over traditional markets, and they expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DAILY BRIEFING: Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden’s inauguration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices