Real Vision: Finance & Investing

DB-Apr28,2021:Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to discuss his takeaways from today’s FOMC meeting. He expresses his concerns about Powell’s assessment of intensifying inflationary pressures as being only transitory and anticipates the bond market continuing to tighten over the next few months. Harrison and Boockvar then analyze the possibility of a fiscal cliff to come in the next year and the potential impact of tax increases on the economy as well as Boockvar’s perspective on the global economic recovery, the dollar, and how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday:: Abra CEO Bill Barhydt joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Abra, the future role of banks, and security. Barhydt describes Abra as moving towards the vision of being a full bank for cryptocurrency as it offers trading and investing in over a hundred crypto assets as well as the option to earn interest and borrow against them. Barhydt does not believe traditional banks will have a value proposition over the next 25 years and suggests that many of them will either become crypto-centric or disappear. He explains that Abra provides the full spectrum of security needs for their customers, covering "cold, warm, and hot" custody solutions. This means that Abra provides custody solutions for short term active trading (hot) and for long term storage of assets (cold) and everything in between. Recorded on March 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Abra aims to become a full bank for crypto assets. Barhydt believes most banks will become crypto-centric or die out, and Abra provides the full spectrum of custody services for their wide range of customers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr27,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss his current take on markets. Thornton explains the thin trading volume for this past month as sentiment remains high, and he explores Goldman Sachs’ newly published economic forecast, which cautions that there will be quarter-over-quarter GDP declines going forward even while the U.S. economic backdrop grows stronger. Bennington and Thornton also debrief Coinbase’s direct listing and his perspective on the growth of the crypto space, and they tackle Thornton’s thoughts on the Chinese tech sector and where he sees investible opportunities. Finally, he talks about energy as one of the best reopening bets out there and shares how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr26,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the great tax debate happening in the US, infrastructure, and privacy. Ed and Ash touch on earnings as well as the current momentum in markets, and Ed explains why he sees the potential for consolidation or an absolute pullback down the line when assessing the level of heightened bullish sentiment. As the US focuses its attention toward the reopening, Ed and Ash also consider the future of deficit spending, examining Biden’s infrastructure bill and the potential capital gains tax hike. They then turn their attention to Google’s and Apple’s privacy initiatives and what sort of implications this has for the tech sector going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay: James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss whether inflation or reflation is on the horizon and how either would impact risk asset prices in 2021. Bianco explains that markets often react to the start of the nominal growth cycle similarly—whether inflation or reflation is occurring—as it's difficult to distinguish which phenomenon is leading economic growth. Even as the consensus is reflation, Bianco expresses his concern over inflation posing an issue. He also reflects on why the valuations of non-profitable tech stocks have risen so rapidly and expounds on how this is in part due to a significant shift in the investors’ preferences for trading in individual names. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the MIT Security Studies Program, sits down with his long-time friend Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors to discuss a multitude of factors affecting China's strategic objectives. Although they examine certain aspects like demographics and the trajectory of growth for China's military, the focus of the interview is on geography and how China’s large number of land borders and their perception of being blocked off from the Pacific Ocean by U.S. military presence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines makes the "first island chain" a potential flashpoint for conflict. Green and Fravel also discuss Green's hypothesis that Vladimir Putin and the Russians are the deftest participants in the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia. Recorded on February 25, 2021. Key Learnings: It wasn't too long ago that trade deal headlines were whipsawing markets back and forth. The outcome for U.S.-China relations is not set in stone, and investors need to be aware of the risks and opportunities presented by this conflict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: Nick Kokonas, founder and CEO of Tock, joins Jason Buck, co-founder and CIO of The Mutiny Fund, to share the lessons he has learned on his path from a derivatives trader, to a restauranter, and to a technologist and fine dining innovator. Kokonas recounts his beginnings in finance in Chicago's trading pits, where he witnessed firsthand the perils of selling tail-risk, or extremely out-of-the-money options. Kokonas and Buck exchange outlooks on options trading and "the Greeks," before Buck prompts Kokonas to share how he founded restaurants such as Trio, Roister, and Alinea (the only restaurant in all of Chicago to retain three Michelin stars). Kokonas shares how identifying and solving the multitude of problems that befall the restaurant industry let him to create Tock. Recorded on March 19, 2021. Key learnings: Most restaurants waste a tremendous amount of time and money, and Kokonas uses the skills he gained as an options trader to spot inefficiencies and innovate in common practices such as dropping checks, making reservations, and ordering ingredients. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr,23-2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a live talk on the biggest market-moving stories as the week comes to a close. Harrison covers credit and shares additional thoughts on “The Great Biden Tax Grab.” Bennington makes sense of today’s economic data and takes a look at the cooling-off of crypto prices as well as the widening spread between the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and its net asset value. Farley looks at price action in commodities such as lumber, oil, as well as the recent shocking news from Kimberly Clark that the bull market in toilet paper could be over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr23,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley tackle the whispers of a capital gains tax hike on America’s wealthiest investors, which triggered a midday sell-off in U.S. equities. Harrison analyzes the progress of global vaccination efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19 and argues why he believes the “fourth wave” of COVID-19 in the U.S. is very unlikely to destabilize the economy. Harrison shares with Farley how he sees industries evolving their businesses in a world that is fully re-opened yet still wracked by infection risk, something he terms “the new normal.” This conversation leads to Farley’s analysis of the earnings reports of Southwest Airlines Co ($LUV) and American Airlines Group ($AAL). Lastly, Farley and Harrison take a brief detour into Dogecoin as well as commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr20,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision crypto editor Ash Bennington to update his thesis on commodities and interest rates as the U.S. economy continues to roar. Greer makes sense of a surging equity market that backed off today and argues that commodities will continue to perform in a “liquidity parade” set by a combination of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Greer analyzes falling yields and a falling dollar and connects the rise in financing costs to the slump in cannabis equities. Greer covers the resurgent bull markets in grain, iron ore, and oil, contending that monetary authorities are pouring “kerosene” on these assets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr19,2021: In the first segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and Jack Farley investigate the challenges the Federal Reserve faces as speculative fervor reaches a fever pitch in Dogecoin as well as the ultimate fate of the yield curve. Harrison and Farley look how Fed Funds futures indicate the implied probability of the future Fed Funds rate and explore whether the holding pattern in bonds can continue and where yields will go if they go back on the march. In the final segment, Farley speaks to Deep Knowledge Investing's Gary Brode, who shares his analysis of stocks such as Enova International Inc ($ENVA) and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co ($HMHC). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: In the wake of interviews with Jeremy Grantham and his recent heir apparent Ben Inker, managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes a third member of GMO, portfolio manager Matt Kadnar, to Real Vision. Kadnar shares with Harrison his approach to asset allocation and risk management at this unique market juncture. Kadnar thinks a cyclical bout of inflation could be due, but is skeptical that a 1970s-era level of secular inflation will linger for long since these serious periods of inflation are caused by a wage price spiral and unemployment remains high. Kadnar argues that if the market prices in more inflation, interest rates will continue to rise, and this will likely cause high-flying growth stocks to return to the ground. This is in line with Kadnar's investment framework, which as he describes to Harrison is dependent on mean reversion in the long-run. Kadnar is not a believer in gold but notes that if real rates become sufficiently negative, gold begins to make more sense within a portfolio. Recorded on February 23, 2021. Key learnings: Kadnar believes that value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks over the long-run. He argues that Treasury bonds do not offer the same protection from equity drawdowns that they once did, and as such, he is constructive on asset backed-securities to play this role. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at L2 Capital Partners, for a deep-dive on Uranium both as an energy source as well as an asset class. A former engineer, Lopez has built a model mapping every Uranium mine on earth and shares with Alden why he thinks supply will be constrained for years to come. Alden highlights the key role nuclear power will play in the global transition away from fossil fuels, particularly in countries like India, where three quarters of all energy is produced from coal. Lopez insists that, in the world of ETFs, $URNM is a much better alternative than $URA, but notes that active research and security selection will yield the best results. Lastly, Alden and Lopez comment on the uncorrelated nature of Uranium to other macro cycles and how this is beneficial within a portfolio. Recorded on February 22, 2021. Key learnings: Lopez argues that Uranium offers the most asymmetric trade he has ever seen in his lifetime. The market cap of all Uranium equities amounts to roughly $20 Billion dollars, Lopez notes, so an investor can buy all of a key power source for about 1/35th the valuation of Tesla. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal to discuss his Expert View, “The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise,” released today. Ash and Raoul will be contextualizing this piece for macro investors and more. Please visit this link to watch the video just by adding your email address. The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise, Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr15,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss the newest release in the weekly jobless claims data, comparing the vaccine roll-out in the U.S. to other countries, and how we are on the precipice of inflation. Bianco points out how, even though jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, the question of job growth is trickier to address as enhanced benefits seem to be deterring people from seeking out work. He also considers how the level of COVID-19 infections and the pace of vaccine roll-outs both differ between the U.S., Europe, and Asia, which means that globally, the reopening is much further away. Bianco and Harrison also address how supply chain disruptions may feed into inflationary pressures, how new methodology may have an impact on CPI metrics, earnings expectations for this year, and Bianco’s thoughts on the trajectory of the bond market and rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr14,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, to make sense of the release of earnings from big banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Whalen explains why the eye-popping net income figures, which exceeded expectations, are largely due to booking released loan loss reserves as profits as well as trading revenues, which may not be sustainable. Whalen argues that quantitative easing has reduced banks’ earnings power by compressing their net income margins. Lastly, he and Farley discuss the ongoing role of the Federal Reserve as well as today’s direct listing of Coinbase. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Arca CIO Jeff Dorman, Pantera Capital co-CIO Joey Krug, and BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul join Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss their three favorite sectors in crypto, portfolio construction outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and how they view DeFi. Each of the guests describe what decentralized finance means to them, touching on the risks of investing outside of the top two coins by market capitalization. They explain their thoughts on some of the current emerging crypto sectors such as NFTs. Recorded on February 18, 2021. Key Learnings: The crypto space is still young, and there are many new projects popping up all of the time. Investors should be very cautious about investing into newer projects in the space as smaller market cap projects tend to be increasingly risky with smaller size. For those that are interested in investigating further out the risk curve, DeFi and NFTs are the sectors most commonly mentioned in these discussions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-April13,2021: Imran Lakha of Options Insight joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to make sense of a market that is becoming calmer day-by-day as measured by implied as well as historical volatility. They discuss the halting of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine distribution as well the release of the latest data on the Consumer Price Index, which, at a yearly change 2.6%, exceeded economist expectations of 2.5%. Lakha defines key terms and shares the mechanics of key options strategies such as collars (also known as “risk reversals” or “risk-ies”), straddles, and stock replacement. Lastly, Lakha shares tales from the burgeoning world of crypto derivatives, describing the rare “call skew” in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and explains why he, a two-decade veteran of the volatility markets, sees it as a tremendous opportunity. Lakha can be found on Twitter @options_insight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr12,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley prepare viewers for a huge week in markets, giving insight on the series of major investment banks set to release their earnings later this week as well as the pivotal disclosure of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Farley explains why “base effects” are so important, and Wiethe breaks down the inflation readings into their components, using insights from his upcoming interview with oil analyst Warren Pies. Lastly, Farley and Wiethe take a chart-heavy look at everything from Treasury volatility to cannabis stocks to Ecuadorean bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay: Legendary chartist, Peter Brandt of Factor LLC, returns to Real Vision Live to run through his 2021 outlook for a handful of assets based on their technical setups. Together with Real Vision's Max Wiethe, Brandt will analyze the setups in US, Japanese, and Chinese equities. In addition to equities Brandt will also examine corn and other agricultural commodities, gold, bitcoin, US Treasurys, and currencies. Brandt will also take questions from the audience and provide his macro perspective after decades of successful trading. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes Felix Zulauf, legendary investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, to share his thoughts on the interplay of interest rates, equities, and inflation as well as share his macro outlook as debt and demographics reshape the future of economic growth. Zulauf believes that the current macro setting of rising yields and a falling dollar mirror the conditions prior to the 1987 equity crash, commonly known as Black Monday, which wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equity valuation overnight. Zulauf sees this correction not as a disaster scenario but merely a detour to another leg higher. Zulauf remains constructive on equities, at least in the long-term, due to his belief that central banks are dedicated to propping up risk assets like never before since a decline in risk assets by 10% would roughly correspond to a loss in 1% of GDP growth. Recorded on February 11, 2021. Key learnings: Zulauf sees a possibility of a 10-15% correction in the near-term as rising yields trigger investment models to cut back risk. He thinks rising yields will make for a bleak 2021 for gold although he is constructive on the precious metal in 2022 and beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: What are SPACs? What role do they play in the current investment landscape? What opportunities do they offer investors? And, perhaps most importantly, are they in a bubble? Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer these questions and more. Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the growth areas of the future—from online gaming and e-sports to electric vehicles and space exploration—and that SPACs present the path forward for early-stage companies to go public. Yusko traces the different stages in the SPAC capital formation process, which includes pre-IPO, private investment in public equity (PIPE), and post-merger, and he depicts the various opportunities they offer investors, noting that many stages offer bond-like risk but equity-like returns. Yusko describes his latest venture, the Morgan Creek and EXOS Launch SPAC Originated ETF, which seeks to deploy active management and long-term holding periods as a way to navigate a promising space that is nevertheless frothy like so many other pockets of the market. Recorded on February 10, 2021. Key learnings: Yusko explains that SPACs are just a regulatory wrapping—saying that SPACs are in a bubble is like saying hedge funds are in a bubble. Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the companies of the future and that, due to the dispersion between different SPACs, active management and diversification is the best way for investors to play the space. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-April9,2021: Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a market in flux and share opportunities on his radar. Raoul updates his macro views on the dollar, interest rates, and economic growth before he discusses new developments in the crypto world such as the IPO of Coinbase as well as the U.S. listing of Galaxy Digital. Raoul also shares his latest views on ARK Innovation ETFs as part of his belief in durable secular trends driven by technology that abide by Metcalfe’s Law. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr8,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to share his insights on the inflationary pressures and drawdown risks he’s observing. Boockvar discusses his take on why weekly jobless claims in the U.S. continue to be high while job openings are also at record highs, highlighting how enhanced unemployment benefits may be competing with wages and how this puts inflationary pressure on labor. He also analyzes Jamie Dimon’s statement of the economic boom running all the way into 2023 and points out that another leg up in rates, a potential tapering by the Fed, and the end of large-scale fiscal spending could all prove to upend that notion. Harrison and Boockvar also explore the potential influence that supply chain disruptions could have on earnings, a corporate tax grab under Biden, and the impact of high margin debt on markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB- Apr7,2021: Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how America’s red-hot economy is precipitating wage inflation alongside monetary and fiscal stimulus, worth trillions of dollars, which shows no sign of slowing. Dillian argues that this booming reflationary environment will be hostile to bonds but could lead to a “melt-up” in U.S. equity indexes as value stocks surge and growth stocks remain at hold their own. Lastly, Dillian and Farley cover gold, retail leverage, and the Federal Reserve’s release of its minutes from the FOMC’s meeting in March. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Author, coder, and educator Andreas M. Antonopoulos (aantonop.com) joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Bitcoin, layer 2 solutions, and the Wild West of crypto. Andreas describes Bitcoin as enabling trust across vast distances without coordination—trust without a central authority. He explains that Bitcoin allows you to trust in the system, without needing to trust the other person you are transacting with and without needing to even know who they are. Antonopoulos touches on the difficulty of scaling blockchains, mentioning that its design requires everyone to check everyone else's work in order to remain secure and decentralized. Layer 2 solutions, such as Lightning Network, have been built on top of Bitcoin to help it scale to magnitudes greater transactions per second while still retaining the security and decentralization characteristics. Antonopoulos explains that crypto has enabled innovation of financial services, no longer restricted by gatekeepers, and he observes that the fact that anyone is allowed to innovate without permission, without authorization, and without oversight has created a "Wild West" environment with many “snake oil salesmen." In light of this, he infers that this is why there is significant defensive skepticism regarding Bitcoin vs. other new projects in the space. Recorded on February 18, 2021. Key Learnings: Bitcoin engenders trust in its system as it does not require trust in a central authority to coordinate transactions, even across considerable distance. The problem it currently faces is scalability. In order to resolve that without compromise, Layer 2 solutions help blockchains scale while attempting to retain similar levels of decentralization and security as the base chain. The permissionless nature of open source blockchains creates an environment ripe for "snake oil salesmen," and this is why many people who understand this have strong defensive skepticism of non-Bitcoin projects. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-April6, 2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss Coinbase, Archegos’s implosion, and the overall state of U.S. equities. After reviewing Coinbase’s earnings, Thornton discusses his bullishness on their upcoming direct listing, a gesture that he considers validating for the crypto space and will become the biggest deal of the year, and he shares his plans to buy in and how he’ll build the trade. Thornton also explores what he’s seeing in U.S. equities such as a FAANGs experiencing a rally and the S&P 500 displaying exhaustion signals as well as daily sentiment reaching 90%. In light of Archegos’s leveraged blow-out last week and its ripple effect on the market, he provides his perspective on what happened and why this is significant. Finally, Bennington and Thornton tackle the rise in Treasury yields and other various catalysts that currently lie dormant such as the vaccine rollout, the reopening of the economy, and the potential problems going forward for the labor market. For Our Listeners: For the special offer for Thornton’s research service, Hedge Fund Telemetry, use coupon code “stonks” here: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/checkout/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr5,2021: Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital, joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to break down how he thinks the rapidly changing economic and financial landscape is affecting his outlook for fixed-income, equities, and Bitcoin as well as hedge fund strategies such as long/short equities and convertible bond arbitrage. Gayeski argues that rising yields render much of the fixed-income world unattractive but that pockets of opportunity exist in structured credit, which is more immune to interest rate risk. He argues that Bitcoin is attractive to institutional allocators as a way to get exposure to central bank balance sheet expansion and explains why Bitcoin now comprises a double-digit percentage in SkyBridge’s portfolio. Gayeski also shares his views on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth, and interest rates as well as his take on the ongoing rotation from growth stocks into value equities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay: Jim Chanos recently remarked that we are in a golden age of fraud, highlighting that companies trade unaffected by credible public accusations for years before it finally catches up to them. But even after the house cards collapses, the executives in charge of these companies often go unpunished and shareholders are left holding the bag. In America, this wasn’t always the case. Pulitzer prize winning author and senior reporter and editor at ProPublica, Jesse Eisinger, penned the definitive historical account of this devolution in his book "The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives" and in this first installment of a series of interviews focussed on white-collar crime and its affects on markets with Quinton Mathews, managing member of QKM, the pair reexamine this history to explore how we got from regulatory institutions dishing out multi-year sentences in the Enron scandal to almost no prison time or charges being filed against bank executives in the GFC and the potential actions needed to remedy this broken system. Recorded on October 14, 2020. Key Learnings: Eisinger and Mathews highlight the hollowing out of the regulatory bodies charged with investigating and prosecuting these crimes and the misaligned incentivizes for ambitious young attorneys as the biggest problems. They concluded that increased funding for regulators and diversity in hiring of prosecutors are some of the many changes need to improve the system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research Associates, believes that there will be a recovery—but not one nearly as robust as the market is currently pricing in. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Rosenberg argues that this is the result of a freshly increased debt overhang, lingering unemployment, and shifts towards saving and away from spending as a result of the psychological scarring of COVID. Rosenberg also outlines his investment ideas that result from this view, namely long bonds, gold, "utility-like growth", and emerging markets in Asia like China and India. Recorded on February 1, 2020. For Our Listeners: You can get a free 30-day trial to Rosenberg Research here: https://bit.ly/3pQ4nyB. Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: If central banks and governments unite to debase their money and depreciate their currency, will the long-awaited inflation finally arrive? And if it does, how can investors position themselves to not only protect their portfolio—but in fact grow their wealth—in this inflationary environment? Russell Napier, preeminent investment strategist, joins Stephen Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet to answer these two critical questions. Napier makes his case for why inflation is indeed on the horizon, discussing everything from rent controls and yield curve capping to credit rationing and pricing power, and then he and Clapham explore the various investments that have a favorable risk/reward profile should Napier's thesis prove correct. Recorded on February 4, 2021 Key learnings: Napier sees favorable opportunities in companies that can secure easy debt financing, value stocks whose pricing power varies with inflation, and countries with low debt-to-GDP ratios such as Singapore. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr2,2021: Real Vision senior and crypto editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley to the Daily Briefing. They discuss the Nonfarm Payrolls data, which significantly exceeded expectations, and interpret what this means for the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. They look at the corresponding sell-off in U.S. Treasurys today and the surge in S&P 500 futures (the U.S. stock market is officially closed). Lastly, they cover the surge in Ethereum and altcoins. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Apr1,2021: Tyler Neville, senior editor at Blockworks, and Real Vision’s Jack Farley briefly look at the S&P 500’s breach beyond 4000 as bond yields retreat and the dollar marches higher. Tyler also interprets recent currency volatility, examining the U.S. dollar’s recent strength against the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Chinese Yuan. Tyler and Jack then turn to the bond market, analyzing how rising yields have taken down an otherwise triumphant credit market. Tyler notes that the 60/40 is severely weakened by ultra-low yields and argues that Bitcoin could be a serious replacement to bonds. Jack and Tyler discuss other assets within crypto such as non-fungible tokens and assets within decentralized finance (DeFi) before taking another look at the Archegos liquidation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar31,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura and Max Wiethe to the Daily Briefing. After briefly analyzing the day’s price action (U.S. equities surged as Treasury yields rose), they analyze the forced liquidation of Archegos Capital. Weston provides insight into the mechanics of the over-the-counter derivatives that were involved in the blow-up as well as big banks such as Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and Credit Suisse that were prime brokerages to Archegos Capital. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Dan Tapiero, founder and managing partner of 10T Holdings, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss some of the crypto investment sectors he is interested in, including blockchain infrastructure, on-ramps, and next generation financial services. Taperio explains his approach to investing in the space and why he is looking to invest in what he considers to be mid-sized, crypto companies worth over 400 million dollars. He explores the benefits of investing into crypto on-ramps such as crypto exchanges and lending and borrowing, pointing out that even when crypto prices are going down, on-ramp type investments still perform. Tapiero believes that investing in blockchain infrastructure, such as bridges from traditional finance to crypto, is a way to get upside exposure to the asset class without necessarily needing to purchase the crypto assets themselves. Recorded on February 17, 2021. Key Learnings: There are many different ways to approach investing in the crypto space. Tapiero takes the traditional investor approach, primarily investing in businesses rather than holding the crypto assets themselves, and he describes his approach as a "picks and shovels" style investment strategy. This enables the investor to benefit from exposure to the asset class while also reducing the downside risk that comes with holding the tokens themselves. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar30,2021: What does the leveraged blow-up of Archegos Capital Management mean for risk assets? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer this question and update his outlook on stocks, bonds, housing, the U.S. Dollar, and gold as the bond rout shows little sign of stopping. Tony notes that the forced liquidation of Archegos ceased to impair stocks today—for now, at least—but remains as a potential sign that there is some market danger underneath the hood. Tony cites this as a reason why, on the margin, he is moving somewhat into cash and gold and out of stocks. Tony makes sense of the action in Treasury yields and tells Ash why he thinks the U.S. Dollar has been driving higher, especially against the yen. Tony speculates as to why commodities have proved resilient in the face of this dollar strength, which is normally a headwind. Lastly, Ash tells Tony about his evolving journey in the crypto world from a fan’s creation of Ash’s very own non-fungible token (NFT) to Ash’s experience buying Ethereum for the first time. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Crypto: Mike Belshe, co-founder and CEO of Bitgo, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss Bitgo, tokenization, and the DeFi markets. Belshe describes Bitgo as a security and technology company, acting as custodian for approximately 18 blockchains and 300+ tokens. He explains the importance of the institutional component to adoption and how crucial secure custodians are for institutions to be able to fully enter the space. Belshe believes that DeFi is starting to show some incredible opportunities, and he mentions that there are already smart contracts operating at significant scale, automating away parts of traditional finance such as automated market makers. Belshe also mentions the value of token standards like ERC20 for building out the layers of crypto infrastructure. Standardization of various tokenization formats will accelerate the security and composability of the crypto space. Recorded on January 27, 2021. Key Learnings: Security is paramount when working with institutional level investments. In order for crypto to be an asset class accessible to all, a secure fiduciary custodian is necessary infrastructure. We are in the early stages of the infrastructure build out for the crypto space, and as the value of the assets grow, the level of security must also scale with it. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar29,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the next few months will be critical in determining how sticky rising inflation expectations will be. As the vaccination rollout progresses, albeit slowly in many countries, Boockvar explains that markets are continuing to look ahead to the reopening of the economy with fears of inflation constantly present. He sees that the pressures coming from increasing commodity, labor, and services costs could prove to have a lasting effect on inflation expectations in the months to come, and he says this could bolster the 10-year Treasury yield rising north of 2%. They also talk about how this may impact the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the Daily Briefing, Harrison welcomes Trevor Hall, host of the Mining Stock Daily Podcast, to discuss rising input and commodity costs and its overall effect on precious metals, industrials, and miners. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay : Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME Group, joins Wall Street veteran Harley Bassman of The Convexity Maven to discuss the impact of Fed policy on volatility across a handful of assets since the pandemic and, more broadly, since the GFC. In addition to this discussion of potential unintended effects of Fed policy, they examine its failure to generate meaningful inflation in anything aside from financial assets. They also debate whether negative rates in the US are probable—or even possible—as well as why the dwindling monetary policy toolbox combined with political rhetoric seems to point towards MMT and a passing of the baton from monetary authorities to fiscal authorities at least as it relates to generating inflation. Recorded on December 16, 2020. Key Learnings: The Fed’s monetary policy has had measurable effects on markets, especially in terms of reducing volatility but has not been successful in generating inflation. The shift from monetary to fiscal policy could be what finally ushers in the period of inflation many have been predicting. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview: Famed investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, star of Shark Tank, joins Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal to make sense of the changing market structure and the disruption of the financial establishment. Cuban sees tokenization and blockchain bringing more transparency to the financial industry and remains bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset. He also praises stimulus efforts but sees political partisanship as a major risk to fixing the dichotomy between Main Street and Wall Street. Recorded on February 3, 2021 Key Learnings: Cuban follows the HODL ethos of cryptocurrency and shares what’s in his crypto portfolio: BTC, ETH, LTC, AAVE, and more. When it comes to the public markets, he explains why Amazon and Netflix are among the big tech companies with the strongest AI capabilities and they’ve remained two of his biggest holdings for years. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, returns to Real Vision to update his framework on how key economic variables such cash, liquidity, savings, and debt have been impacted by the global recession. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Koo applies to the current situation his noted theory of a "balance sheet recession" in which liquidity is ample, but the private sector nevertheless remains focused on paying down debt. Koo and Harrison analyze the interplay between the economic shutdown and economic growth. Lastly, Koo shares his views about quantitative easing, negative interest rates, central bank digital currencies, and ongoing efforts by central banks to stem the damage wreaked by the pandemic. Recorded on January 29, 2021 Key learnings: Koo thinks that the unprecedented interventions of central banks were necessary to meet the once-in-a-lifetime crisis of COVID-19. Like many, Koo expects that economic growth will pick up once pent-up demand is unleashed. However, after this spurt of economic activity, Koo thinks that the overhang of debt could cause a significant balance sheet recession that is contractionary and deflationary. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar26,2021: Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry gives Real Vision’s Jack Farley a much-needed update on the “battles” in the market between mega-cap stocks that dominate the S&P 500 and the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 that have been ripping for months. Thornton analyzes the internals of the market, using DeMARK indicators to gauge exhaustion, and he looks at breadth, moving averages, and volatility. Thornton shares with Farley his view on bonds and energy stocks as well as Tesla, the ARK Innovation ETF, and specific stocks that are on his radar. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar25,2020. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes to the Daily Briefing Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist of PNC Financial Services Group, and Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Agati shares her view on U.S. equity valuations, noting that stocks might have run too far, too fast amid reflation optimism, and Chandler argues that market performance will ultimately hinge on liquidity conditions, making the long-term case for why the dollar could be approaching the end of its bull cycle as twin deficits weigh it down. Agati also highlights that there is much opportunity in both the debt and equity of emerging markets, noting serious composition changes with the various indices. Lastly, Agati and Chandler share their views on bonds and credit. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar24,2021: In the main segment, Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how he’s navigating the mercurial swings in stocks. Dillian argues that both the rotation from growth into value as well as the sell-off in U.S. Treasurys will likely continue as the U.S. economy re-opens and trillions of dollars worth of stimulus are on the table. Dillian shares with Farley his thoughts on reflationary sectors such as energy, airlines, and life insurance, and he also shares his evaluation of psychology within the Bitcoin market. In the final segment, Farley is joined by Huw Roberts, director of analytics at Quant Insight, who conducts data-driven analysis on how the gyrations in the Nasdaq 100 Index are driven by macro variables like interest rates, commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and expectations for growth and inflation. For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar23,2021. Lily Francus, independent quantitative researcher, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share her outlook on narrative economics, the NOPE Index, and the dangers of beta. On the one-year anniversary of the bottom in the S&P 500, Francus notes that this current market environment is marked by a great deal of short covering and portfolio rebalancing, which drive the “rotation” trade away from growth into value that has been playing out. Francus explains how the surge of retail traders (or “low-information traders”) has driven flows and exerted a serious influence, particularly in the sky-high volume of options contracts. Francus connects this to her theory on NOPE (“net options pricing effect”) before sharing with Bennington her advice to traders in this choppy market. For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB- Mar22, 2021. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley to share her analysis on the prospects of U.S. Treasury bond yields, given the Federal Reserve’s decision to give exemptions to banks’ supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) expire, and its apparent aversion to yield curve control (YCC). Alden tells Farley that forthcoming headline inflation figures could appear higher than true inflation due to base effects, and explains the how the record-high Treasury’s General Account (TGA) will affect bond yields going forward. Alden explains why she expects yields to be the release valve of volatility rather than the dollar, and notes that heightened uncertainty over macro variables makes this environment a paradise for pickers of individual stocks. Lastly, Alden shares her bullish thesis on Adobe Inc ($ADBE) and her evolving views on non-fungible tokens (NFTs). For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replays. It isn't hard to find data indicative of the madness that pervades the current market environment, but to Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, no data point encapsulates this quite as clearly as the staggering $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt outstanding in the world. As an avid historian of interest rates, Grant argues that the only certainty is that this will end and most likely it will end badly. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Grant explores why he is so certain that this monetary experiment will end badly, the unintended negative consequences that can be seen in credit markets as yield starved investors grope for any yield they can find no matter the risk, and the opportunities this presents for investors willing to bet that a guaranteed loss on your investment will eventually fall out of fashion. As well the pair will discuss the implications of Biden's selection of Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary and potential for a return to an inflationary environment. Recorded on Dec 3, 2020. For Jim's charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lBES10 For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Interview. Because of their favorable structure, SPACs have become the vehicle of choice for founders and venture capitalists to bring private startups to the public market—even with the explosion of SPACs in 2020, we are already on record setting pace in 2021. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital breaks down exactly why the SPAC structure is so favorable and argues that the knock-on effect of an M&A boom will produce the modern equivalent of the AOL-Time Warner acquisition, signaling that the top is in. Wolfe and Green also discuss Wall Street Bets and the current meme driven market, Josh's prediction of an "Occupy the Fed" movement, and the biggest opportunities in tech that he and Lux Capital are invested in Recorded on January 28, 2021. Key Learnings: SPACs have a favorable structure that makes raising cash so easy that it will encourage rampant M&A, which will eventually result in the mega-deal, signaling the top of the market. Crypto and Wall Street Bets are emblematic of outrage that Josh Wolfe believes will result in an "Occupy the Fed" movement and retroactive regulation. At the moment, Josh Wolfe and Lux Capital are focused on the technology behind scientific advancement and the emerging space economy as their big bets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB-Mar19,2021. Despite today’s head fake in bonds (yields surged but quickly retreated from their peaks), this Friday marks the seventh consecutive week in which the U.S. 10 year Treasury yield has risen. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to analyze how the continued sell-off in bonds is impacting bank stocks, tech equities, and the U.S. dollar. They explore how the Fed’s decision to let the SLR exemption expire will impact the bond market and banks. Ed updates viewers on Europe’s economic woes, and Jack gives a quick rundown of the wild gyrations in the oil market. The three also look at the rate hikes by the central banks of Turkey, Brazil, Norway, and Russia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

DB- Mar18,2021. Ramsey Smith, founder and CEO of ALEX.fyi, returns to Real Vision to share with managing editor Ed Harrison his economic outlook and his views on how the advent of COVID-19 has changed retirement portfolio construction as well as the nature of the annuities business. Smith notes that rising rates is good for the life insurance business because it is, like banking, a business that depends heavily on spreads. Smith thinks that the liquidity coming from stimulus will be helpful to markets. Lastly, Smith and Harrison explore to what degree society will return to “normal” as the economy re-opens. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices