Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management are both keenly focused on the complex task of discerning China's economic reality. In this interview, Bass and Pettis attack the important issues of capital flight, China's massive economic inequality, and their domestic debt burden, just to name a few. They both tend to agree on what is most important, but not always the takeaway from the data. It is the nuanced differences in their interpretations of the current state of affairs that had even Kyle Bass remarking at how much he was able to take away from this enlightening and pleasantly civil back and forth. Recorded on October 7, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has evolved his investment style over the years, and although he is still the "bond king", increasingly he has become multi-asset with a focus on getting the macro right. In this interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, Gundlach explains how he thinks about time frames, position sizing based on asset class, and how his style changes based on whether the market is alpha or beta driven. He also provides his current outlook, arguing that there is not much opportunity in this environment and that the most important thing at the moment is managing risk while patiently waiting for the next big trade. He also touches on timely topics like the potential for a wave of insolvency, why he believes we are in the midst of The Fourth Turning, his skeptical view of bitcoin, and why he is bullish on the dollar in the short term despite his highest conviction macro view being pronounced dollar weakness. Recorded on October 1, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the growing shutdown measures in the U.S. even as the S&P 500 makes all-time highs. Looking at declining mobility data, Pal explores how the prospect of a full lockdown in the U.S will depress economic activity as well as perhaps markets. He and Ash then discuss default risk and the stock sales of Pfizer’s CEO before zooming out into macro issues such as how stagnant money velocity affects retirees and how rise in the monetary base could buoy precious metals and bitcoin. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action, evaluates the distress of cruise liners, and the looming expiration of the Fed’s emergency lending programs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down a day of heavy selling across sectors as COVID-19 cases surge to unseen levels. Ed interprets what the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index means and shares his views on how, shutdown or not, the rise of coronavirus will likely depress economic activity. Ed and Jack discuss the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield and the heavy selling of value equities, with Jack asking Ed whether the rotation into value will resurge or is in fact over. After quickly reviewing price action in volatility markets, Ed and Jack give a sneak peek of the “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux” featuring Jim Chanos, Mike Green, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Kyle Bass, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, William White, and many other legends of the investment world. In the intro, Peter Cooper explores the current state of the coronavirus epidemic in the States and reviews the jobless claims report that came out today. For the charts that Ed and Jack discuss, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lrQLY0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, break down the pausing of the rotation out of growth and into value as cases and hospitalization in the U.S. surge to unseen levels. Ash breaks down Bill Ackman’s hedge against investment grade credit, and Ed explores how much central bank liquidity there is on the sidelines waiting to buoy asset prices. The pair also discuss taxes, the outcome of the U.S. elections, as well as Ed’s upcoming interview with Michael Howell. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at credit spreads and gives a sneak peek of Real Vision’s upcoming interview series with investing legends such as Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, Jim Chanos, Kiril Sokoloff, Sam Zell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Raoul Pal, Kyle Bass, and Russell Napier. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest euphoric episode in markets. Greer discusses how the rotation in the markets demonstrates their renewed focus on a post-pandemic world as the pattern from the last several months of trading is coming undone. He shares his thoughts on the appropriate balance of a political perspective to a market outlook, where inflation will begin to crop up under a Biden administration, and trades he’s paying attention to in energy, tech, commodities, and more. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at how the markets have reacted to potential vaccine news and how big tech companies across the globe, like Amazon and Alibaba, have become a major focus for regulators. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

NOTE: THIS DAILY BRIEFING WAS FILMED THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5. Fielding questions from Real Vision subscribers, senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, analyze how the various outcomes of the 2020 U.S. election will impact markets. Ash and Ed talk about the future of Real Vision content, price action across bitcoin, bonds, and equities, and the likely underperformance of the 60/40 portfolio should the economy enter a cyclical downturn. Ash and Ed analyze how the prospect of divided government (i.e., a Biden presidency coinciding with a Republican senate) will affect earnings potential and fiscal stimulus. They also share their views on potential cabinets picks for the next U.S. President. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Howard Lindzon, general partner at Social Leverage, tells Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal why he is bullish on the digital future of business despite acknowledging the harsh economic realities that have emerged since COVID. Lindzon argues that there is a shortage of investible opportunities to capitalize on this trend and this is what we are seeing in stretched tech valuations. He also discusses how he has bet on the democratization of finance with his investments in StockTwits, Robinhood, and eToro and explains why he is still not sold on crypto despite being exposed to the space. Filmed on September 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kiril Sokoloff sits down with Raoul Pal to discuss why he believes the bull market for precious metals is only in its fourth inning. All-in costs of gold production are under $1000 compared to the current price of $1900, creating profit margins never seen before in the industry. In effect, the gold mining companies have become free-cash flow machines. With US federal deficits growing as far as the eye can see, and the US owing more to the rest of the world than any nation in history, a dollar crisis is brewing, which will launch gold on the next leg of its bull market. Filmed on October 16, 2020. Key Learnings: Gold and gold miners are under-owned, misunderstood, and the beneficiary of many other current economic and financial trends. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, review this past week’s “everything rally” and key macro indicators against the backdrop of political uncertainty and COVID-19. Ed explains the two different narratives around the market rally — either the markets’ growing comfort over a split government or the markets had priced in more chaos that hasn’t yet come to fruition. He then also breaks down the narrative of a backpedaling economic recovery that the bond market and the macro indicators such as the ISM reports and jobs reports are reinforcing. Ash and Ed also touch on whether we’ll return to a high hospitalization and death rate with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and reiterates how the social response and the durable changes to demand are not driven by policy alone. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin walks us through the October jobs report, how it exceeded expectations and its impact on the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by Jay Pelosky, co-founder and CIO of TPW Investment Management, to provide an update on his current outlook amid a turbulent election and uncertain future with stimulus and COVID-19. Pelosky argues that markets are getting closer to end of this period of peak uncertainty around these variables and that deep cyclicals like airlines and oil will rally sharply higher. Pelosky also explains that as the election race comes to a close, markets have been oversold in the past week and are becoming more comfortable with the idea of a split government as investors gain clarity. He digs further into the question of stimulus - a matter of “when,” not “if” - and contends that a vaccine may roll out sooner than stimulus, which would cause the markets to react aggressively, raise rates, and could set up a rotation trade out of tech and into cyclicals. Finally, he also discusses asset allocation and his thesis of a tripolar world. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at markets rallying as the U.S. presidential election outcome is still uncertain and analyzes the K-shaped recovery that continues to form as the job market remains high. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In light of the market rally along with election uncertainty today, Ash Bennington & Ed Harrison ask, "just what exactly are the markets celebrating?" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, to break down the hidden forces driving markets on U.S. election day. Disagreeing with the linear narratives about how election results impact markets, Krishnan instead analyzes the market plumbing, looking at the trend spike in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, interest rate volatility, and the likely forced selling options dealers’ will have to conduct should the S&P 500 start to show weakness. After Krishnan shares with Bennington his theory explaining the “kink” in the VIX futures curve, he imparts the following advice to traders: “never panic.” In the intro, reporter Haley Draznin breaks down investor optimism in global equities, the impact of high turnout of U.S. voters, and the halting of Ant Group’s massive I.P.O. Recorded on Nov 3, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Tommy Thornton, president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to break down his framework for trading markets as the U.S. Presidential election rapidly approaches. Thornton looks at market sentiment and trader positioning, concluding that investors are net long this market, which limits upside potential, with extremely low short interest. Bennington and Thornton explore price action in European markets and look forward to vaccine news. Thornton then describes several trades he sees in cannabis and coffee, advising viewers on the value of holding dry powder as well as not getting sucked into narratives. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at Europe’s lockdowns, election odds, and price action in the credit markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Michael Saylor, chairman & CEO of MicroStrategy Inc., joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to discuss MicroStrategy’s major Bitcoin acquisitions. Saylor describes his background, what led up to the creation of MicroStrategy, and its recent push to bring Bitcoin into the corporate world. He explains his first encounter with cryptocurrencies and how his views on it have evolved over the years. Saylor touches on the power and value of Bitcoin and its unique utility of being able to convey “100 million dollars across 100 years.” Finally, Saylor shares how they store the Bitcoin owned by MicroStrategy and the timeline of the investment. Filmed on September 16, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Not only is art one of the oldest asset classes in the world, but it also is one of the best performing. In this interview with Real Vision’s Max Wiethe, Scott Lynn, CEO of Masterworks, makes the case for investing in “blue-chip art” and explains how his company is bringing this asset class traditionally reserved for the ultra-rich to a whole new cohort of investors. Together, Lynn and Wiethe discuss “blue-chip art” and how not all artists are made the same when it comes to the returns, explore the art market’s relative outperformance and correlations with other asset classes, and finally how Masterworks’ new business model, allowing investors to buy shares of art from some of the world’s most famous artists, is completely changing the market. See important information: masterworks.io/disclaimer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Strauss Zelnick, chairman and CEO of Take-Two Interactive and partner at ZMC, joins headhunter Christian Alexander of Macro Link to share the lessons he learned on his journey to the top of the media world. Take-Two Interactive is one of the largest gaming companies, and its stock is up over 900% since Zelnick became its CEO in 2011. Zelnick discusses his investment philosophy and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the film business, the music business, and the video game business. He also analyzes various secular trends on his radar including the widespread adoption of big data usage, a trend he calls "the data explosion." Recorded on September 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, welcomes Stephen Kalayjian, chief market strategist of Ticker Tocker, to discuss the elevated levels of volatility and his forward outlook for markets over the coming months. With the U.S. election coming up in less than a week, Kalayjian describes how not only are markets are being worn down by the torrent of uncertainty surrounding policy outcomes with each respective administration, but also by how the sensitivity of this year’s election and the events that will unfold in the coming weeks are keeping markets on edge with COVID-19 exacerbating tensions further. He explains where he sees the opportunities and downside risk in U.S. equities in light of these circumstances and why the perception of economic growth in large cap tech stocks will propel their prices up further for the rest of 2020 through the beginning of 2021. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes the U.S. economy's record GDP growth, but explains the real obstacles going forward that will slow the recovery, perhaps severely. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison for a special edition of the Daily Briefing. Ed gives an update on his thesis, now that U.S. and European equities have continued to tumble, and analyzes how the halting of economic activity in Europe will likely cause a double dip recession that is very bad for risk assets. Ash breaks down the COVID-19 data on cases, deaths, and hospitalizations, and he and Ed look forward to see whether this past six months of economic recovery is nothing more than an “interregnum” or a “head fake.” Recorded on Oct 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of price action in equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Tony reviews Monday’s rout in U.S. stocks and corresponding pop in the VIX, and explores why FX volatility was so low. He and Ash then discuss Bitcoin’s surge upon the news that Paypal is allowing bitcoin transactions on its platform. They look at durable goods orders, oil, gold, as well as investigating how big central bank balance sheets might get going forward. Lastly, Tony shares his view on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential election might affect markets. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at home sales, mall foreclosures, and “lender-on-lender” violence in the credit markets. Recorded On: Oct 27 , 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk through the social, political, and economic ramifications of the various U.S. presidential election outcomes in tandem with the risk of a more forceful and perhaps lethal second wave of COVID-19. Ash and Ed discuss how the policy outcomes in a Biden administration are more limited than what a Trump administration would be such as the fate of FAANG and Trump’s recent executive order regarding the dismissal of civil servants. They also consider what would happen to stimulus after the election, how markets have priced in a blue wave and how the outcome could be deviations away from expectations, and what the policy response might be to a rise in hospitalizations. Ed also explains the impact the hysteresis effect could have on the economy and consumers as well as how that may lead to more durable consumption changes post-COVID. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes China’s Ant Group raising $34 billion, making it the largest IPO in history. Filmed on Oct 26, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, breaks down the events leading to the recent tidal wave of interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies. He touches on the various crises that have encouraged the rampant printing by central banks and the destructive consequences this has left in its wake. Touting Bitcoin as the unkillable “cockroach of finance” and the life raft for this transitional period in history, Raoul sees CBDCs as the killer of stable coins and the start of a new era in the world of monetary and fiscal policy - the first major steps of technology eating the traditional finance world. Pal says that all of the macro signals are pointing towards a major shift in how the system is run. He cites the allowance of banking custody for crypto assets by regulators, major corporate treasuries investing in Bitcoin, and new types of banks, such as Kraken, all as pivotal events in the coming shift to a digital asset world. Filmed on October 18, 2020. Aired on October 19, 2020 Reserve your spot for Real Vision Crypto launching soon... http://rvtv.io/CryptoTierLaunch Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are charter schools a wise addition to your investment portfolio? Charter schools receive less public funding from local and state taxes and federal programs than their district school counterparts, so they seek private funding in efforts to be able to operate to their fullest capacity. Programs like the New Market Tax Credit (NMTC) and opportunity zones provide several incentives for holding investments in charter schools. This type of impact investing also pays back in good deed as investors in charter schools have the satisfaction of knowing that their investments better education for America’s children. Eva Moskowitz, founder and CEO of Success Academy, the largest and highest-performing free, public charter school network in New York City, opens up about how she is reimagining public education and how the network has had to adapt to remote learning amid the coronavirus pandemic. Filmed on October 15, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul’s enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul’s zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, talks to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, about some of the most recent macroeconomic data releases such as jobless claims and existing home sales and what they portend for the economy. Boockvar also explains why recent comments from the Fed and the level on the 10-year Treasury bond matter. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes the surge in corporate bonds as companies have done so much refinancing in one year and she looks at the new jobless claims out today which are at the lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic hit in March. What this means: The macro is telling Boockvar to watch for an uptick in cyclical inflation and he’s using it in conjunction with bottoms-up analysis to build a portfolio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to discuss the art of portfolio construction and his current outlook on markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on why investors whose sole focus is on returns fail and how to structure a portfolio that properly accounts for risk. He also breaks down how he gets exposure in real estate as well as how he’s thinking about the implications of the Fed backstopping the credit markets. Dillian also covers his thoughts on Bitcoin, time horizons, U.S. election outcomes, and trend following. In the intro, Real VIsion’s Nick Correa share the latest CEO confidence numbers and the next big, potential SPAC deal between Michael Bloomberg and Bill Ackman. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss earnings, stimulus intervention, and investment time horizons. Thornton talks about how, despite stronger Q3 earnings, Q4 could demonstrate a pullback and whether the upcoming U.S. election could serve as a catalyst either to upside or downside. He also shares his thoughts on stimulus intervention and the hazards of MMT as well as on how he thinks about managing positions and time horizons. Thornton and Bennington also touch on the energy and financials sectors and how the election outcome could affect these sectors. Thornton also describes how he analyzes different sectors through technical indicators and how technicals enhance the way he invests. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin breaks down the markets reaction as lawmakers continue efforts to reach a spending bill and weighs in on the Fed’s cautious approach to possibly issuing digital currency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by managing editor, Ed Harrison, to interpret how the rising COVID-19 infections in Europe and the U.S. will impact markets. Ed conducts a deep dive on best practices for containing the virus while mitigating the economic damage, reviewing protocols in Norway, Sweden, Belgium, and New Zealand, and Ash looks at how China’s remarkable GDP growth could be related to its own containment strategy. Ed gives a sneak peek of his upcoming interview with legendary value investor Joel Greenblatt while Ash tells viewers about Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal’s surprise update on Bitcoin and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Lastly, Ed and Ash discuss signs of stress emanating from the New York commercial real estate market. In the intro, editor Jack Farley gives a snapshot of today’s price action and looks at NASDAQ futures contracts and Royal Caribbean Cruises’ recent convertible bond deal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Everyone knows Jeremy Grantham as the face of GMO, the behemoth money manager that has become legendary for its work on asset allocation, but Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO since 1998, seems to be next in line for the throne. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Inker helps viewers make sense of the post-COVID investment landscape from the perspective of a major asset allocator. Together they discuss everything from the future of the 60/40 portfolio to bonds as an asset class in this new low rate world. They also dig in to US vs. non-US assets, the trouble with popular ex-post facto explanations for FAANG outperformance and narrative bubbles like Tesla, and why the financial sector can be so difficult to value. Filmed on September 21, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Alex Saunders, CEO and founder of Nugget's News, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to explain the reinvention of the monetary system through new crypto payments systems based on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins. He tells Raoul the story of his introduction into the crypto world. Saunders also breaks down the expansion of global e-commerce through the explosive growth of decentralized finance. Filmed on September 15, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, look forward to the relevant themes. Ed adds to David Rosenberg’s recent comments that “organically, the economy is still in recession,” and he and Ash reflect on (the? a bit awk) recent success of Sweden’s pandemic shutdown response. They then put a week of bank earnings into context and analyze Warren Buffett selling the bulk of Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings in Wells Fargo. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about “priming” in the markets for distressed debt. For reference, the video Ed discusses at the beginning can be found here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/the-breakdown-what-all-financial-crises-have-in-common-5f89ad21d788a45104be209e. Visit realvision.com to get access for just $1 for months access. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst analyze a choppy day of global market action. They look at European equities as well as currency swings in the Euro and the Australian dollar. Roger looks at gold, and Ed analyzes the effect of narrowing net interest margins on bank earnings and yield curves. They also discuss central banks’ role in facilitating fiscal stimulus as well as global debt levels and zombification. In the intro, Haley Draznin analyzes price action, Morgan Stanley’s earnings, and the re-emergence of COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

|Credit Markets| IPOs | Bond Issuance | Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down today’s bank earnings reports and look forward to the fate of the credit markets. Ed shares his framework for understanding the K-shaped bifurcation between investment banks relying on a flurry of IPOs and bond issuance and commercial banks who are left with spotty loans and narrowing net interest margins. Jack guides viewers through the remarkable performance of Goldman Sachs, particularly their trading division, and he also shines a light on the rising credit risks in Bank of America’s loan book. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses how companies are postponing their plans to return to the office until the summer of 2021 and what the future of work arrangements may look like as remote work continues to present its pros and cons. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Daily Briefing | JPMorgan Chase| Citigroup |Finance | Investing Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of big moves today in equities, bonds, and the dollar. Greer analyzes the latest CPI reading through the lens of the ECB’s piggy-back announcement that it too would let inflation run hot. Greer then breaks down today’s bond rally as the dollar retracement coincided with significant sector rotations in the S&P 500. Bennington and Greer then analyze the latest newsflow from Washington D.C, including the status of President Trump’s health, the progress of stimulus talks in Congress, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about the latest earnings reports from U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

S&P 500 | VIX |Economics | Trading | Investing Managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington answer questions from the Real Vision audience in this special edition of the Daily Briefing. They discuss everything from the latest jobs numbers, to the regulatory hurdles that banks are facing, to the Real Vision editorial process. They also look at junk bond defaults and the correlation between the S&P 500 and the VIX. Lastly, they explore whether credit is “the canary in the coal mine.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Asia | China | Europe | GeoPolitics | Macro Technology After years living abroad in China and Vietnam, professor Chris Balding has returned to the U.S. because of concerns for his safety due to his role in exposing the data collection operations of Shenzen Zhenhua Data Technology. In this interview with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Balding lays out the initial findings from his expository research and updates viewers on the current state of affairs in China. Together they examine geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of Asia as well as China’s current relationship status with Europe and Russia. They also help viewers make sense of what is happening on the Chinese homefront and the macro factors driving capital flows into the country. Filmed on September 15, 2020. More information about the Chinese data gathering operation described in the interview can be found here: https://rvtv.io/33Cmxd7 and https://rvtv.io/3ktuDvg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content on Real Vision by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, "has everything changed?" As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, "has everything changed?" He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is "the world’s best trade." Filmed on September 17, 2020 and Aired on September 21 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to look back at market action and make sense of several secular trends. Raoul shares several of the lessons from his interview with “The Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, which leads into a discussion about changes to risk appetite and time horizon within the hedge fund industry. Raoul and Ash then discuss the latest banning of crypto derivatives for amateur investors. They close by discussing wage deflation and software’s ever-tightening grip on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst break down some of the most significant price action they're seeing in markets. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains the back-and-forth on fiscal stimulus negotiations and why the Fed could issue a monetary policy offset to try and sustain economic momentum. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down the vanishing fiscal stimulus and the K-shaped economic recovery. Ed interprets the latest economic data to give Jack his market outlook over the next six months. Ed then looks at how the impasse in the fiscal stimulus may widen the chasm between large corporations and small businesses. He and Jack then turn their gaze to the credit markets where the bifurcation between the haves and the have-nots is becoming even more apparent. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper takes a look at how President Trump has pulled the plug on fiscal stimulus negotiations, what he's targeting now, and how markets have been taking in the news. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest wild market swings. Despite a large selling episode on Friday with the announcement of President Trump being diagnosed with COVID-19, Tony discusses how the rally still has momentum as the macro indicators are still driving markets upward. Ash then asks how Tony is currently hedging the news of the president's health, and they talk about how FAANG is now getting pummeled even though the rally is still holding. They review historical examples of key anti-trust cases and share their thoughts on why breaking up big tech may catch retail investors flat-footed. They wrap up their conversation with Tony sharing some trading lessons he's learned from his experience and what he's looking out for next. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains why stocks took a dive Tuesday afternoon after President Trump said he ordered an end to stimulus negotiations until after the November election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison break down another day of risk-on sentiment as the market evaluates the state of President Trump’s health and the chances of another round of fiscal stimulus. Ed explores whether the term “depression” is appropriate, through the lens of his interview today with David Rosenberg. Ed and Ash then look at how duration risk and political gridlock might impact markets going forward. Lastly, Ash discusses his interview on Friday with Brian Estes, and looks forward to Live Q&A's with Lyn Alden, George Goncalves, and Ted Seides on “The Exchange”: https://exchange.realvision.com/. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at movie theater chain Cineworld's decision to shutter hundreds of theaters in the U.S. and U.K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Marc Cohodes is well known as a confident and vocal short-seller willing to fight harder and dig deeper into a company than anyone else in the business. But when he sees the buying opportunity of a lifetime, he's just as willing to get to work on the long side and spread the good news. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Cohodes explains why the combination of a booming e-commerce business, the massive call option of tokenization, and the tZERO blockchain network have him extremely bullish on Overstock even after riding the stock from $3 to $90 in its most recent run. As well, they discuss Marc's other "all in" call on Camping World, a company that, much like Overstock, has him licking his chops and continuing to buy alongside insiders who have not stepped out of the market in spite of the general frothiness that abounds. Cohodes also updates viewers on the personal and emotional rollercoaster that has been his MiMedx short. Air Date: 4 Sep 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Aired on September 11, 2020 on realvision.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins senior editor, Ash Bennington, to interpret the latest financial newsflow. Raoul explores the possibility of a top forming in U.S. equities through the lens of his “GMI crash pattern.” He and Ash then analyze President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 and investigate its potential market impact. Raoul then talks about today’s interview with hedge fund legend Dmitry Balyasny as well as next week’s interview with bond kingpin Jeffrey Gundlach. Raoul and Ash briefly discuss the criminal charges brought against BitMEX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Lastly, Raoul shares his view on the enfeebled energy sector. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley breaks down the price action following the COVID-19 outbreak in the White House. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to break down today’s price action. Using Julian Brigden’s Expert View from September 28th as a springboard, Roger discusses the pressures that central banks are under to create reflation in an environment of low productivity, low growth, and a weaker dollar when they have instead contributed to asset price inflation. Roger and Ed also analyze the rebound in equities by considering how US equities are carrying out a bullish narrative of recovery as compared to poorer equity performance outside of the US. Wrapping up their conversation, Roger also offers his thoughts on the NASDAQ futures short position as well as how pensions are being threatened now. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin takes a look at the rise in SPACs as first blank-check ETF makes its trading debut today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report. Boockvar shares his macro analysis on what he calls “the pain trade": companies that have been the most hurt by COVID-19 and have the most to gain from re-opening. Boockvar and Harrison review the latest economic data and discuss what is and what is not priced into the markets. Boockvar also discusses banks as the ultimate value trap and why they may be poised for an ultimate turnaround should the long-end of the yield curve tighten. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin breaks down two major technology companies, Palantir and Asana, and their direct listings on the NYSE today and how this could reshape the IPO market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to break down recent price action in markets. Tony provides his latest thoughts about what’s happening in the energy sector and where oil is headed as we begin to close out 2020, reviews his stance on the tech rally and its sub-sectors, and offers his perspective on the financials sector. Ash and Tony also discuss market sentiment with the U.S. presidential election fanning the flames of anxiety and the risk of COVID-19 still looming. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin looks ahead at what investors will be watching for in the first US presidential debate and its impact on continued market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of the biggest 3-day breakout in equities since April. Through the lens of Ed’s most recent piece in "Credit Writedowns." Ed and Ash explain why low interest rates tend to make growth stocks more valuable relative to value stocks, and why the recent rally in small-cap value stocks might be short-lived. Ed looks forward to his interview with hedge fund legend Leon Cooperman, which airs tomorrow, on Tuesday, September 29. The pair also discuss discount rates, portfolio rebalancing, and endogenous credit creation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro horizon. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed's FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed's policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as an investor as well as a financial advisor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices