Real Vision: Finance & Investing

What happens when the monetary and fiscal engines run too hot? This is the question that Larry McDonald, New York Times bestselling author and founder of the Bear Traps Report, explores with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal. McDonald and Pal start by analyzing the valuations of high-flying tech stocks and discuss whether they will continue to soar or make an early landing. The pair then examine in detail the remarkable price action seen over the past few months in commodities such as precious metals, lumber, and natural gas. McDonald compiles this appreciation as evidence to explore his thesis that excessive stimulus could serve as a "cobra effect" to augur a hyperinflationary economic collapse. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, come together to analyze the price action in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Ed looks forward to his interview with Leon Cooperman, and Ash interprets the latest economic data, including today’s dismal print for durable goods orders. They then consider the latest political news and discuss how the upcoming presidential election will impact markets. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about stocks, credit spreads, and a steepening VIX curve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, hosts managing editor, Roger Hirst, to break down wild market swings that have characterized the last week of price action. Roger explores key retracement levels in the IBEX and FTSE 100 as well as the recent weakness in bank stocks, using his analysis from his latest episode of “The Big Conversation.” Ed then discusses the momentum shift over the past two weeks from growth to value through the lens of his interview with Ben Inker, heir apparent to Jeremy Grantham at GMO. The pair then look at the head-and-shoulders pattern in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and explore whether currencies could be a release valve for volatility adjustment. In the intro, Ed speaks to Real Vision reporter, Haley Draznin, about the steady rise in jobless claims released today, which signal continuing layoffs as the economy recovers slowly from the coronavirus pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to review and analyze today’s price action. Ed and Dave first discuss the continuing sell-off in equities and examine Dave’s bearish position on the S&Ps. They also consider the dollar’s move upward, what opportunities may exist for the yen as a result, and how low volatility in bonds is prompting higher volatility in the FX space. Finally, Dave shares his thoughts on the sell-off in silver, explains what technicals he uses to manage the trade, and at what levels he’ll retest his bullish thesis on precious metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the ongoing inflation trade. Tony expounds on his bullish posture toward oil and some of the technical indicators he uses to analyze different securities. He also reviews some of the current policy stances that emerged from last week’s FOMC meeting, explaining how he leverages these policy shifts to seek out price inflation across different asset classes. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin monitors the continued volatility in the markets and addresses the potential risks investors are paying close attention to in the coming weeks including another stimulus relief bill out of Congress, a new spending bill, and surging coronavirus cases in the U.S. and abroad. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, discuss a volatile day in markets. Ed and Ash analyze today’s sell-off in stocks, gold, and silver as well as a significant rally in bonds. They then consider the resignation of Nikola founder, Trevor Milton, the rumors of European bank consolidation, and the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Ed looks forward to his interviews with Jim Berry, Deloitte’s U.S. real estate leader, and Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO. Lastly, Ash speaks to Real Vision editorial intern Bryce Zuccoli, who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard the narrative that cities are dead and that white collar workers, now unburdened by the ability to work from home, are fleeing to the suburbs as fast as they can. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at Housing Wire, explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington why it is nothing more than an interesting narrative. He goes on to add that, aside from a few pockets in New York and San Francisco, the relative strength in the suburban housing market is being driven by the only factors that matter -- demographics and mortgage rates. Bennington and Mohtashami also drill down on the relationship between bond yields and mortgage rates and the knock-on effects into housing demand that you could see depending on different scenarios for those rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There will always be debate surrounding what is the best way to gain exposure to precious metals. Should you buy gold miners, an ETF, maybe trade futures? It can all seem very complicated, but what if you want to do it the way it has been done for centuries -- owning physical metal with your name on it stored in a vault in a secure location? Mark Yaxley, general manager at Strategic Wealth Preservation (SWP), sits down with friend and client Raoul Pal to answer that very question and discuss how SWP has made it easy to buy, sell, and store precious metals in the Cayman Islands in a safe, legal, and affordable way for countless clients from all over the world. Together, they also discuss the state of the physical gold market, Mark and Raoul’s outlooks for the asset class, differences between coins and bars from assorted global producers, and the types of clients Mark is seeing step into the physical market at this exciting time for precious metals. Filmed on August 19, 2020. To find out more about SWP or open a physical metals account, go to www.swpcayman.com/realvision. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to look forward to the future of markets as well as Real Vision. After they evaluate how the market interpreted the Fed’s latest FOMC meeting, Raoul broadens the conversation beyond equities to make sense of the flatness in bond yields and credit spreads. Raoul and Ash then discuss the upcoming two-week exploration on Real Vision, “Has Everything Changed,” as well as discuss how Real Vision’s new platform, “The Exchange,” is allowing Real Vision members to connect with each other and form a “hive mind.” In the intro, Jack reviews market price action and gives a sneak peak of “Has Everything Changed.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss the latest in markets, macro, and coronavirus. They discuss how the results of the upcoming earnings season will provide a gauge on the health of the economy and solidify its standing as 2020 begins to come to a close. They also speculate on the ongoing persistence and momentum to the upside in equity markets, short-dated options trading amongst retail investors, and the sudden proliferation of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Ash and Ed then debrief yesterday’s FOMC meeting, lay out the impact the Fed’s actions will have on the bond market, and consider whether the Fed really is out of ammo at this point. In the intro, Peter Cooper shares the latest jobless claims data and enumerates on the flaws of solely relying on this data to understand the health of the labor market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, invites managing editor, Roger Hirst, to take a deep dive into options to gain clarity on what this market’s greatest, current mover is. Roger argues that, contrary to conventional thought, currently the institutional “whales” are less influential than the retail investors, who are driving the options markets and have made themselves out to be the “megalodon.” He breaks down how retail investors are contributing to momentum through options, how “air pockets” in equity markets and contract expiries are linked, and how rising volatility will continue to increase “air pocket” risks. Roger then elaborates on why he believes these aren’t structural risks as of yet, but rather that insolvency risks are more near-term by observing how zombification of large-cap companies is on the rise due to misallocated capital and QE infinity. Ash and Roger then finish off their conversation by exploring the renewed risks to a clean Brexit. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes at the correlation between retail sales out this morning and the performance in the market. She also looks at the surge in IPOs this week, including Snowflake’s debut today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the latest in markets. Tony breaks down what he’s seeing in the tech shakeout and explains how he’s approaching the recent correction in equity markets. He walks through the indicators he watched and how that guides his investment decisions. Ash and Tony then discuss the ongoing suppression of oil demand, especially as fears of lagging demand will persist for years rise, and how Tony is maintaining his long natural resources position. Tony then offers his final thoughts on what he’s looking out for as the week goes on. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin examines the rise of retail investors and why institutional investors are turning to platforms like Reddit and Twitter to track retail in efforts to gain an edge in the market and gain a better understanding of why they are flocking to stocks like Nikola. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the animal spirits that are driving this market. After reviewing historical financial panics, Ed and Ash take another look at whether options mania is exerting influence on equity price action. They explore the “Softbank narrative” through the lens of volatility investor and arbitrageur Benn Eifert, and examine how speculators are buying options from market makers who are forced to delta-hedge their position, as they don’t want to take a directional position. Lastly, Ed and Ash look forward and see if there is “another shoe to drop” as fall approaches. In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash Bennington discuss the OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, sits down with Rick Rule, president and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., to talk about the macro drivers of the recent precious metals bull market and what to look for when investing in miners. Using their decades of experience in the industry, Rule and Fleckenstein explain why regardless of a specific price target and because precious metals investments as a percentage of the total market for savings and investments is far below the average over the past 50 years, reversion to the mean has precious metals exposed investments poised to march higher. Rule provides his explanation as to why Warren Buffet, who has called gold a pet rock in the past, has recently allocated a portion of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in Barrick Gold Corporation. Fleckenstein argues that there is a problem with using traditional NAV-based analysis and provides viewers with strategies to find hidden value when analyzing miners and to avoid the pitfalls that many investors fall victim to when investing in the space. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For much of the population, analysis and projections of COVID-19 cases, mortality, and the associated policy response have brought forward the importance of statistical analysis and modeling techniques that many have never learned and, at best, probably haven't used since long past college years. This has resulted in heated debate, politicization, and huge differences in policy decisions and attitudes across jurisdictions. In this Interview, Christina Ramirez, professor of biostatistics at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, sits down with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors to help viewers understand the constantly evolving story that the data is telling. Together, they examine the quality of the available data sets, how the consequences of lockdowns have born themselves out in other data like reports of child abuse, and how data indicates that as our knowledge and experience has grown, so too has our ability to combat the pandemic. Viewers can find more info about Christina Ramirez's work and access her updated data sets and charts here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on the latest financial newsflow as well as Real Vision's new projects. After briefly discussing oil’s recent price action of oil, Raoul and Ash break down how the Fed's action is affecting different segments of the credit market, and they also weigh in on Jeffrey Gundlach's recent comments that default rates on high-yield credit could double. Raoul then explains why the importance of demographics means that inflation is not always purely a monetary phenomenon. Raoul and Ash then discuss Real Vision Creative Studios, the forthcoming Real Vision crypto channel, as well as "The Exchange," Real Vision’s brand new platform for members to share knowledge with each other. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about Nikola, Softbank, as well as a week of ample credit issuance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by Tyler Neville to discuss how the recent market sell-off may have been a temporary equity volatility-driven event due to credit spreads. They question where economic growth is going to come from and how funding in the private markets may fuel it. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin weighs in on the juxtaposition between the real economy and the financial economy and Citigroup’s announcement today naming Jane Fraser as CEO, becoming the first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the market plumbing that’s fueling the wild price action on Wall Street. Ed and Ash first break down the tremendous pressures on banks, which find themselves in a cash-strapped economy lending to businesses with drastically-curtailed incomes. Ed then weighs the notion that central banks are ‘cartels’ in that they have a monopoly on the money supply. Ed and Ash then analyze the true effect of QE, exploring whether it will actually spur lending growth rather than just inflating asset prices. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the JOLTS report and the woes of commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to discuss the dramatic turmoil playing out in equity markets. Dillian discusses how the speculative bets in derivatives markets affect price action, and provides greater clarity on Softbank’s role in the ongoing saga. Dillian and Bennington also discuss Tesla’s selloff, the upcoming Canadian election, and the U.S. dollar. In the intro, Jack Farley explores the true effect of Softbank’s call-buying. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, answer questions from Real Vision subscribers, about markets, their respective journeys, as well as Real Vision itself. Ed shares his experience of working in the foreign service, and he describes how his time spent working in the fixed income markets caused him to become more receptive to Austrian economics. Ash discusses his journey of transitioning from working in fintech to becoming a financial reporter, and he also explores his passion for cryptocurrency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

History is often overlooked and misunderstood, especially financial history. Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC and Simon Mikhailovich, managing director of The Bullion Reserve, explain the role of gold and the credit cycle through history, comparing today to the credit crises that have occurred roughly every 100 years since the 1720's – the Mississippi Bubble in France, Europe's reckoning with a post-Napoleon order in the 1820's, and the post-World War I calamities of the 1920's and 1930's. Using history to set the table for their discussion of gold, central banking, and the credit cycle, Dan and Simon break down how these forces push the monetary system down the dangerous "goat path" towards unwinding. Despite the seemingly dour circumstances, Oliver and Mikhailovich explain why there is still hope for wealth preservation and even incredible returns for those investors who choose not to continue down the "goat path." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Milton Berg, Founder and CIO of Milton Berg Advisors, joins managing editor Ed Harrison to analyze the technical patterns and market internals on his radar. From his repository of over 10,000 indicators, Berg selects and discusses the ones he thinks are most compelling, such as 5-day breadth thrust, consecutive volume-up days, and the put/call ratio. Berg then observes that the equity markets are behaving like commodities, in that they are trending upward as volume spikes. Lastly, Berg and Harrison try and reconcile some oddly bullish indicators with the macro backdrop with Berg casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of central bank’s ability to ballast asset prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on a week of extreme price action. They analyze the dramatic crash of U.S. equities on Thursday and its connection to the speculative activity in derivatives markets. After weighing the significance of Softbank’s unmasking as the big “NASDAQ Whale” that has been buying a massive amount of calls on big tech stocks, Raoul and Ash have a broader discussion about how volatility regimes evolve and bleed into each other. Raoul then provides a strategic update on his “unfolding” thesis, shares his thoughts on Europe, and explores the possibility of a W-shaped recession. Finally, Raoul and Ash discuss the “Festival of Learning” that Real Vision hosted this week, as well as give a sneak peek of Real Vision’s new community feature, “The Exchange.” In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash discuss today’s jobs report and look at market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to discuss the levels he’s looking at after U.S. equity markets cratered today. Dave considers whether there are structural changes occurring in the markets and provides his insight into the frothiness by drawing comparisons between now and markets in the early 2000s. He also breaks down his tactical approach and how he makes his picks. Ash is also joined by Real Vision’s Roger Hirst, sharing his thoughts on how rising implied volatility was signaling a potential drawdown in the past few weeks. Roger explains how he analyzes the VIX and the volatility curve to understand this rare market signal and expands on Ed Harrison’s points about derivatives playing into rising volatility and what bond yields converging to zero means for real yields. Roger also provides his response to James Altucher’s segment from yesterday’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk about the risk of an equity drawdown for retail investors in particular. Ed and Ash explore how market volatility is increasing and the fact that bond yields globally have converged to zero makes a drawdown that much more severe. They also talk about how the activity in the derivatives market is playing into the uptick in market volatility. Ash also hosts James Altucher to discuss his recent article in the New York Post about the narrative of the death of cities, and Ed and Ash provide their thoughts. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses Australia’s slide into recession after almost 3 decades of economic expansion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to discuss how the Fed’s “inflation running hot” memo has been translated by the markets. With a weakening dollar, rally in TIPS, and a steeper yield curve, Tony argues that the asset price inflation happening is the way the Fed had intended it to be and that understanding how the Fed fits into the equation will shape the investor’s understanding of the sustainability of this rally. He and Ash examine the price action and continuous rotation across different sectors as well as how commodities continuing to rip is an expression of an ever-weakening dollar. Tony then provides his forward guidance for the remainder of the week. In the intro, Nick Correa goes over the newest U.S. manufacturing numbers as well as what’s happening with copper and other industrial metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How is it that the real economy can be so weak while the asset markets continue to fly? Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison explores this and more with senior editor Ash Bennington. Ed and Ash discuss the ever-widening chasm between Wall Street and Main Street and use Hyman Minsky’s “two-price model” as a framework to understand this dichotomy, and they analyze how asset markets have responded differently to interest rate cuts than the markets for goods and services. In that context, they explain how the sinking labor force participation rate reveals a hidden unemployment which will keep inflation subdued. In the intro, Ash and Jack Farley discuss Jack’s recent interview with Jason Buck on the Real Vision blog, and they also interpret the re-opening woes of airlines and colleges. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Diego Parrilla, portfolio manager and author of "The Anti-Bubbles" and "The Energy World," returns to discuss his poignant predictions that are coming to fruition one-by-one in this conversation with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. As well, Parrilla gives a master class on how he has developed his own macro framework and the subsequent portfolio construction and management that has served him extremely well both before and after the March crash. After establishing his current outlook, Parrilla focuses on the 5% of his portfolio dedicated to finding outsized returns using options and what he calls the goalkeepers of your portfolio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

David Samra, Portfolio Manager of Artisan Partners’ International Value Fund, speaks with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison about the subtle art of value investing. Samra, who defines value investing simply as buying something well below its intrinsic value, shares the four criteria he and his fund use when looking at stocks: undervaluation, quality, financial strength and management alignment. He and Ed also discuss how investors can avoid the pitfalls of so-called "value-traps" – i.e. when a stock is cheap because there’s a reason it's cheap. Lastly, Samra analyzes two companies that are in his fund’s portfolio: ABB and Compass Group PLC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, react to the new U.S. consumer spending report out today from the Commerce Department. Despite gains for three consecutive months, momentum fell as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and fiscal support dries up. They also discuss inflation rhetoric following yesterday’s announcement from the Fed to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the Fed’s dual mandate and how they may need to retire the use of the Phillips Curve. Real Vision editor and reporter Haley Draznin is introduced for the first time to discuss her new role and what financial news stories she is keeping a close eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With just days to go before The Festival of Learning kicks off on Wednesday Sept 2nd, Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal and Real Vision Co-Founder and Chief Creative Officer Damian Horner hosted a Pre-Party. They announced more than 10 new additions to the festival line-up, answered your festival questions, and lots more. Don’t have a ticket yet? You’re running out of time… Get your ticket here - http://realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to check the pulse of the market. Tommy discusses how frothy markets have seen price action heavily skewed by sentiment, and how, with companies withholding guidance for the year, investors are flying blind. He and Ash go over some of the tools Tommy utilizes to examine market trends and momentum, explore how short sellers are currently getting smoked, and consider whether the Fed can continue its QE binge. Tommy then provides his view on the Fed’s move toward average inflation targeting and his forward outlook for the next few months. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and how the Fed is shifting course regarding inflation targeting. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss risk assets, credit markets, and the fiscal cliff. Within an environment of secular stagnation, they talk about the cross-asset play between bonds and equities as well as how overall credit tightening in the financials sector and the velocity of M2 money plummeting will have pernicious effects on growth. They also consider the dichotomy of monetary and fiscal policy and why the Fed will have to continue throwing all their chips in should fiscal authorities continue to be hawkish. In the intro, Nick Correa gives an overview of the tightening of credit markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to continue their discussion of the wild inflation trade. They first look at ExxonMobil getting the boot from the Dow Jones and how it reflects a weak energy sector and the rotation of tech upward, describing how the boom across tech subsectors are correlated to Fed policies. Tony also notes how the baton has been passed over to commodities as well as they continue exploding and how a sell-off in bonds will sustain the commodities’ rally while denoting a rise in inflation. He closes off by providing an update on his thoughts on the DXY, why dollar weakness is a part of the commodities bull case, and what might be driving the rallies in the yen, euro, and Aussie dollar. In the intro, Nick Correa talks about tech’s ongoing dominance in the market by looking at Dow Jones’ makeover and how tech companies are lining up to file their IPOs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a series of financial news stories -- from the so-called “K-shaped” recovery to the struggles American college towns are facing to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s ringing the alarm bell on TikTok. They also evaluate Tesla’s meteoric rise, looking at comments made by Joel Greenblatt, a legendary investor as well as a Real Vision guest, that he “can’t explain it." Lastly, Ed and Ash scrutinize the rise of “investing gurus” on social media platforms. In the intro, Jack takes another look at the U.S. housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Simon Dixon, CEO of bnktothefuture.com, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to break down the intersection of the crypto world and the world of traditional finance. Starting his career in investment banking and joining the monetary reform movement along the way, Dixon understood early on the shortcomings of the fiat money system. He and Pal talk about applying traditional financial ideas to the crypto world and argue that doing so will create a stronger financial system for the future. Pal and Dixon discuss the early days of bitcoin, the intersection between central banks and crypto technologies, and their ideas about the relationship between bitcoin, dollars, and gold. Finally, they talk about how the principles of behavioral economics could impact the interplay between fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies, and the composition of future of financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We can all remember when geopolitical tensions and trade wars were the most important headlines seeming to move global markets up or down depending upon their tenor, but recently the global pandemic and the associated policy responses have brought the focus home with all eyes squarely on domestic fiscal policy. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, looks forward at the coming decade of the 20's and explores the growing importance of government consumption and investment to GDP, the countries and assets that will emerge as winners and losers from the rewiring of the global economy, and why the cold war is a poor analogy for U.S. relations with China. As well, they discuss why news of the European Union’s death has been greatly exaggerated and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on the future of markets at this unique juncture. Raoul begins by giving Ash a glimpse of how his “unfolding” thesis has evolved, particularly with regard to the dollar. The discussion of currencies naturally leads Raoul and Ash to talk about the ongoing meltdown of the Turkish Lira (TRY). Raoul explains the correlation between Bitcoin and the TRY and explores whether it’s a sign of capital flight by Turkish investors. After a brief detour into New York City’s woes, Raoul and Ash consider how this consumer-led recession is widening the divide between skilled and unskilled workers, as well as between the rich and the poor. They then discuss Joe Biden’s recent nomination, the upcoming presidential election, and the importance of evaluating markets in a non-partisan way. In the intro, Jack Farley notes a stark contrast in the PMI data between Europe and the U.S. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss ongoing global monetary and fiscal policy support, how central banks may need to adjust their course, and what the long-term ramifications would look like. Ash and Roger review the latest FOMC minutes and consider the effects of looser inflation targeting and the implementation of yield curve control. They dig deeper into the push and pull of inflation targeting by looking at the risks of aiming for reflation and ending up with stagflation. In an environment of low rates and low yields within a deflationary structure, Roger and Ash explore how aggregate debt and growth could be negatively impacted in the long run. Finally, they look at how these scenarios would be expressed in currency markets—the continuing disparity between the dollar and the DXY and the growing pressure for a weaker euro and yen. In the intro, Peter Cooper examines the scaling back of U.S. dollar liquidity swaps, the newest unemployment numbers, and the FOMC minutes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to take a deep dive into the apex predator of currency markets: the U.S. dollar. Roger argues that the size and speed of the dollar’s fall is driven more by euro strength, flowing out from the ECB’s move toward debt mutualization, than it is by dollar weakness. He explains how certain EM currencies are still weakening as compared to the dollar and how the ECB and the BOJ may find it difficult to hit their inflation targets should their currencies continue to strengthen. Roger also expounds on how bond yield convergence between the U.S. and Europe is contributing to euro strength. In light of these potential structural challenges and the supply and demand bottlenecks due to COVID-19, Ash and Roger then explore how to play the trade and the ongoing bifurcation of financial markets and the economy. In the intro, Peter Cooper looks at Apple’s $2 trillion valuation and Target’s Q2 earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator Newsletter, to discuss the S&P 500 breaking record highs and the wild inflation trade. Tony considers where inflation is cropping up and how dollar weakness is connected to a dovish Fed. He also talks about the biggest market movers—bitcoin, FANG stocks, precious metals, and miners—and where the market may be headed should low interest rates persist. Ash and Tony explore what is happening in the housing market and what is influencing its activity. They top off their conversation by looking at the risks of momentum strategies to novice investors, ESG strategies catching fire, and Tony’s approach to position sizing. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the kick-off of the Democratic National Convention and the latest on CalPERS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by editor, Max Wiethe, to talk gold, stocks, housing, and New York. After Ash analyzes the dismal Empire Manufacturing reading, he and Max discuss the NAHB housing number and explore what it means for the future of New York as professionals flee big cities for the safety of the suburbs. Ash and Max then interpret Goldman Sachs' increase of its price target for the S&P 500, which leads into a discussion of the future of U.S. equities more broadly. Lastly, Ash and Max discuss the case for and against precious metals and emphasize understanding both sides of the trade. In the intro, Jack explores dislocations in the U.S. housing market, looks at Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Barrick Gold Corp, and gives a sneak peak for Tuesday and Wednesday for Real Vision's "Precious Metals Week." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The global economy had been running higher for over a decade, and the coronavirus has been a major speed bump. But what happens when central banks have replaced the airbag with a dagger? This is the very question that Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, explores alongside Luke Gromen, president and founder of Forrest for the Trees. Hendry and Gromen explore the fate of the U.S. dollar through the lens of Charles Kindleberger's theory about "monetary hegemony."They analyze the various interest rates and current accounts of different countries and break down how these nations manage their exposure to commodity risk. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mike Green of Logica Capital sat down with Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, in the last interview to be filmed in Real Vision's studios before the world and our daily routines would be drastically changed by unforeseeable total lockdowns. A lot has changed since then, and in this new interview, they reexamine their outlooks with the advantage of fresh data. Together they discuss the side effects of policies like total lockdown, increased unemployment insurance, and PPP while also examining the social and economic undercurrents that, although accelerated by COVID-19, were established long before it arrived on our shores. Using historical parallels to the Roman Empire, Sri and Mike also think about their long-term outlooks for the U.S. and its currency, taking a view that the U.S. is not in its dying days. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on the current state of markets. Raoul and Ash discuss the upcoming “precious metals week,” and Raoul shares his views on gold, silver, and mining stocks and provides insight into his trading framework. Raoul and Ash then turn to cryptocurrency: Raoul analyzes Bitcoin’s risk/reward characteristics, and Ash details the technological breakthroughs of Ethereum 2.0 with Raoul maintaining it is the macro that is driving the extreme price action of this nascent asset class. In the intro, Jack gives a sneak peek of next week’s interviews on precious metals. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss secular stagnation, initial jobless claims, and the fiscal cliff. They begin by exploring Ed’s takeaways from his interviews with Milton Berg and Charlie McElligott, their contrarian stances, and how price signal distortion is pointing toward secular stagnation. Ed and Ash also parse the differences between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims and how the treatment of the data shapes the way an investor understands employment trends during the pandemic. They wrap up their discussion by considering USPS funding, the lapse in fiscal aid, and the significant political tail risks ahead for this election cycle. In the intro, Peter Cooper reviews the latest initial jobless claims numbers and the plight of essential workers. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Robert Leonard, VP of Growth and Innovation at The Investor’s Podcast Network, to discuss how novice and millennial investors are currently navigating the markets. Robert explains how the real economy and markets are currently disconnected and how that lays the foundation for a future market correction. He also dives into his investment framework and how he combines both value and momentum strategies. Ash and Robert wrap up their discussion by examining how novice and millennial investors tactically and philosophically approach markets, especially in the past few months, and what the potential ramifications of that will be for this demographic. In the intro, Peter Cooper shares how airlines and Disney are currently working to conserve cash flow in an environment of suppressed demand. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tyler Neville to discuss secular stagnation and the financial chicanery happening in markets. With stocks rising above global GDP, Ash and Tyler consider how the increase in bond issuance has been electric all while yields aren’t rising. Tyler also argues how people look at markets through a political lens, but not a demographic lens, and how demographics can further shape an investor's understanding of what’s occurring. They also talk about the DXY in juxtaposition with the federal deficit, the relationship between spot gold and gold miners, and what the future holds for pension funds. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss the pivotal forces driving markets. They discuss bank balance sheets in Europe and how compression of net interest margins are damaging bank earnings. Ash discusses supply constraints of consumer staples, and Ed analyzes volatility, market breadth, and “bear steepening” through the lens of his recent interviews with Milton Berg and Charlie McElligott. They also look forward to a market of lower growth and higher prices. In the intro, Jack analyze Berkshire Hathaway’s recent Q2 earnings report. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We all get our start somewhere, and often the formative experiences of our early years shape our career path for years to come. Beeneet Kothari, managing partner at Tekne, was fortunate enough to spend a large chunk of his formative years at Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Capital where he became the youngest portfolio manager in the history of the firm. In this interview with Christian Alexander, headhunter and author of Macro Link, Kothari outlines his biggest takeaways from working with legends of finance and eventually starting and running his own successful fund. He explains why some of the most important lessons he learned are not hard and fast rules but ways to think, and why even after working at one of the most successful macro shops in the world, he built his fund with a narrow focus on his first love of tech investing. Additionally, he provides his views on bargain hunting, diversification and portfolio concentration, provides his outlook for technology investing in general, and argues against thinking of technology as a sector in the traditional sense. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices