Odd Lots

One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now, is on the need to change our trading relationship with China. Former President Donald Trump started a process of putting tariffs on Chinese goods and limiting the export of certain key technologies. This has only expanded under the Biden administration, with expanded restrictions on things like electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors. So what's the thinking behind this drive? What are the goals and what are the risks? On this episode we speak with the United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai. Ambassador Tai describes what she sees as a rethink, or a new version of, globalization. She explains the new worker-centric priorities, how trade fits into domestic investments, and what a healthy version of international economic relations actually looks like. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pretty much since the moment that cryptocurrencies came into existence, there's been a chorus of skeptics who argue that they solve no real world use cases, except for gambling and speculation. For a while, there was a lot of hype about things like Web3 or DeFi, but for the most part, these still remain in the realm of pure speculation and gambling. And so, the ultimate use case for crypto remains elusive. Our guest on this episode argues otherwise. He thinks that stablecoins, such as Circle or Paxos, which are backed by actual dollar instruments in regulated institutions running on public blockchains (like Ethereum or Solana) are solving a genuine problem in transmitting money, beyond just speculating on other cryptocurrencies. Austin Campbell is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and the founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting. He also comes with a long resume at both crypto and legacy financial institutions. He explains why stablecoins are having a moment and explains the problems they currently solve (particularly internationally) and why legacy payments infrastructure is unlikely to serve the same needs. Read more: The Case for Stablecoins Being the New Shadow Banks How Stablecoins Became a Powerful Force in Crypto Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the problems in investing or trading is that — to use a common disclaimer — past results are no guarantee of future success. Someone can have a great track record in their stock picks, but maybe they just got lucky. Or maybe they were particularly well-dialed into one market regime that inevitably shifts. Or maybe they're actually just better than other traders. For multi-strategy hedge funds or "pod shops," there's an ongoing battle to hire or train the next great portfolio manager. But how can managers tell who is actually good and who isn't? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Joe Peta, who was previously the head of performance analytics at Point72 Asset Management and has had a long career in the trading world. He's also an avid fan of sports gambling, and the author of the recent book, Moneyball for the Money Set, which attempts to take some of the talent analytical principles that originated in Major League Baseball and apply them to evaluating portfolio managers. He talks us through the traditional approach funds use to find or create superstars, and how these approaches can be improved upon using more rigorous, quantitative methods.Mentioned in this episode: Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect TraderHow to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's been a lot of talk about private credit in recent years. The market has exploded in size, and there are worries that it could be a bubble that eventually bursts and sparks disaster. But there are other negative effects from private credit that might already be happening. In a new paper called "The Credit Markets Go Dark," co-authors Harvard Law School professor Jared Ellias and Duke University School of Law professor Elisabeth de Fontenay argue that the $1.5 trillion market for private credit is already having a big impact on the economy — and not in a good way. They say that the rise of private credit marks a seismic change for corporate governance and dynamism.Read More: Odd Lots Newsletter: The Black Hole of Private CreditPrivate Credit Pushes Deeper Into Risk That Wall Street Is FleeingOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a short and powerful speech indicating that it's time for a policy pivot. The goal now, from his perspective, is to prevent further deterioration of the US labor market. His speech didn't delve much into theory or nuance. In this episode, we speak with Peterson Institute President, Adam Posen, who found the speech unsatisfying. He argues that the state of the labor market, while cooling, didn't merit a "rifle shot" approach, such as the one Powell delivered. He explains his concerns and how he sees the risks materializing from here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Remember August 5th? That was the day that markets around the world plunged in historic fashion and everyone became an overnight expert on the yen carry trade. But what really is the yen carry trade? How big is it? Who is making the trade? And what is its connection to markets all around the world? On this episode, recorded at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements. He walks us through the mechanics of the trade, what went on in early August, and the lessons we've already learned from it.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When the Treasury market broke in March 2020, the Federal Reserve intervened in extraordinary fashion. It purchased more than $1 trillion worth of Treasury securities in that month alone. Superficially, this looked a lot like the Quantitative Easing that we came to know during the GFC. But it's purpose was different. This wasn't about depressing the yield curve or providing a form of strong forward guidance. Instead, it was the Fed taking on a role of the "market maker of last resort," so to speak. And yet, despite the different goals, the two different operations look the same and are carried out by the same officials (the members of the FOMC). This creates confusion, cost, and can create a situation where it looks like the Fed is working against itself. On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded in Jackson Hole at the Kansas City Fed's annual Economic Symposium, we speak with University of Chicago Booth professor, Anil Kashyap. He presented a paper at the conference proposing a separate tool within the Fed that can handle balance sheet operations for financial stability. We discussed his proposal along with broader questions about the transmission of monetary policy. Related link: Monetary Policy Implications of Market Marker of Last Resort OperationsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the rate cut cycle is likely to start in September. But of course that just opens more questions. Will it be a 25bps cut? Will it be 50? Could it be two 50s in a row? When does it stop? On today's episode, we speak with Peter Williams, a macro strategist at 22V Research. He walks us through his interpretation of Powell's speech and what to look for as the rate cut cycle begins. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This year’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming marked a big change for US monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell telegraphing the first rate cuts in potentially two years. But what’s it actually like to be a policymaker at one of the most famous economics conferences in the world? And what do central bankers do when they all get together to talk policy? In this episode, we catch up with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, who describes what it’s like to be at Jackson Hole, what’s discussed and how the annual agenda put together by the Kansas City Fed comes together. We also talk about Powell’s speech and how Barkin is viewing the labor market right now. Powell’s Pivot Leaves Traders Debating Size, Path of Rate Cuts Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Every year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts an economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It’s a chance for central bankers and other policymakers to talk about issues facing the global economy, debate academic literature, and provide further guidance on the future path of monetary policy. This week’s symposium marked a step change for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell announcing that the “time has come” for rate cuts after years of hikes. So what makes him confident that inflation’s been tamed? And what are the key pressure points to watch out for in the US economy now? On this episode, recorded in Jackson Hole shortly after Powell delivered his speech, we speak with Bloomberg TV’s Tom Keene and Mike McKee — both veteran Jackson Hole attendees — about what we just learned. Read more: Powell Says ‘Time Has Come’ for Fed to Cut Interest RatesFull Text of Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole SpeechOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Synthetic risk transfers, in which banks purchase insurance-like protection on some of their loans, is a growing market on Wall Street, with billions worth of deals made in the US last year. But of course, anything with the words "synthetic" and "risk transfer" is probably going to remind people of the 2008 financial crisis, when securitizations of loans blew up and infected the banking system. So what exactly are these new trades? Why do banks want to do them and what are investors getting in return for taking on this risk? In this episode, we speak with Michael Shemi, North America structured credit leader at Guy Carpenter, about what these deals are, how they're structured, and what they say about bank capital and the wider financial system.Mentioned in this episode:One of the Hottest Trades on Wall Street, An Etymological StudyJPMorgan’s Risk Swap Ends Up at a Familiar Place: Rival Banks‘Blind’ Bets on Bank Risk Transfers Have Never Been So PopularOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, we speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.Read More at Bloomberg.com:https://bloom.bg/46Q66tShttps://bloom.bg/3X54rNPOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve appears to be ready to pivot into rate cutting mode. Inflation has come down significantly, and the unemployment rate has been trending upward for most of the year. In fact, in the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls report, the headline unemployment rate of 4.3% triggered the so-called "Sahm Rule," which has been a historically reliable signal that the US is already in a recession. So are we in a recession? Could the rule be wrong this time due the unique features of this economic cycle? How should the Fed weigh the risks that we see in front of us? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with the rule's creator, Clauda Sahm, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the chief economist at New Century Advisors. She explains why the signal this time could be misleading, but also why — regardless of whether we're in a recession or not — the Fed must be on guard for a weakening labor market.Read More: My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be BrokenWhat’s the Sahm Rule? Is It Warning of a Recession?Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The past few years have thrown up a number of potential weaknesses in the American economy. There've been disruptions to supply chains stemming from the global pandemic. There are concerns about the availability of strategically important items like semiconductors and vaccines. Meanwhile, Russia's invasion of Ukraine roiled global commodity markets and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has created even more complications for shipping. So how is the US thinking about economic security and what have we learned? In this episode, we speak with Daleep Singh, Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council in the Biden Administration. We talk about how the government identifies areas of potential shortages and chokepoints, and what it does to try to get ahead of them.Mentioned in this Episode:Introducing the Chokepoint Economy, When Shortages Start to Matter Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to financing the US government's borrowing needs, the Treasury Department has some discretion in how it's done. It can sell 30-year Treasuries. It can sell 10-year Treasuries. It can sell a lot of three-month T-bills. Every quarter, it's always going to be some kind of mix. And in theory, the decisions about where on the curve it issues debt can have effects on the market and the economy, since different instruments have different liquidity and risk profiles. Recently, the Treasury has come under criticism for issuing a lot of short-dated debt. Some economists have dubbed it "Activist Treasury Issuance," with the allegation that Janet Yellen & Co. are purposely trying to counteract the impact of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening by issuing less debt at the long end of the curve. So is there anything to these criticisms? And how exactly does the Treasury go about making these decisions anyway? On this episode, we speak to a dissenting voice who argues that the Treasury has approached the task using the same methods it has always employed. Amar Reganti is a fixed-income strategist at Wellington Management and Hartford Funds, who earlier in his career spent four years at Treasury in the Office of Debt Management. He walks us through the Treasury's general issuance approach, why the funding mix changes over time, why it's been issuing more at the short end in recent quarters, and the overall strategy the government will use to fund what the Congressional Budget Office estimates will be another $20 trillion worth of borrowing over the next decade. Read More at Bloomberg.com:Mnuchin Says It's Time to Kill the Treasury Bond He CreatedThe Trillion Dollar Legal Memo: FOIA Files Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hasbro has been making toys for decades, including many classic favorites like G.I. Joe and My Little Pony. But in recent years, it's also been going big on digital games. An app version of the classic board game Monopoly — called Monopoly GO! — has become one of the top mobile games of all time and grossed billions in revenue since it launched last year. Hasbro also owns Wizards of the Coast, the publisher of Magic: The Gathering, Dungeons & Dragons, and the best-selling video game Baldur's Gate 3. So why is gaming such a big growth market for a traditional toymaker? Where is the market heading? And how does a big company judge the success of "freemium" apps like Monopoly GO!? On this episode, we speak to Hasbro CEO Chris Cocks about the business of gaming.Read More at Bloomberg.com: Hasbro Stock Rises on Digital Gaming StrengthHasbro Names Microsoft’s John Hight to Lead Wizards Gaming Division Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a lot of hype around generative AI and many people have interfaced with ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini at this point. It's fun to ask these large language models to come up with a song parody or to write a story, but most casual users of the technology probably aren't worried about things like copyrights, the sensitivity of what they're inputting into the platform, or even the accuracy of the answers being spit out. It's just fun to play around with the technology. For large companies, however, there's a lot at stake. And concerns over data privacy and output errors are even more pressing if you're a big regulated bank. In this episode we speak with Goldman Sachs Chief Information Officer, Marco Argenti, about how the bank is balancing risks and opportunities in AI. Argenti, who previously worked at Amazon Web Services, talks about the development of Goldman's own internal AI tools, what the new tech means for Goldman engineers and other jobs, what makes a good prompt, and much more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The S&P 500 has plunged more than 5% over the past couple of trading days. The Nasdaq 100 is down 7%. The Nikkei fell an astonishing 13% on Monday and then triggered a circuitbreaker as it climbed up 10% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, measures of equity market volatility like the VIX have soared to their highest levels since the pandemic crisis of 2020. So what’s behind all these dramatic moves? There’s a long list of culprits, with market participants blaming everything from the Federal Reserve being behind the curve, to the deteriorating labor market and softer-than-expected payrolls data on Friday, as well as the unwinding of the yen carry trade, the bursting of the AI bubble, and the reversal of short-volatility trades. In this emergency episode of Lots More, we speak to Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura, about what caused the selloff and how long it might last.Read More: $6.4 Trillion Stock Wipeout Has Traders Fearing ‘Great Unwind’ Is Just StartingRisky Borrowers Discover Doors Are Closing in Bond, Loan MarketsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Nasdaq is now in correction territory and the S&P 500 is down more than 2% so far this month. Analysts are blaming any number of things for the selloff, including a slowdown in the economy, the Federal Reserve being behind the curve on rate cuts, hedge funds rotating out of positions, and waning enthusiasm for AI. But Matt King, the former Citigroup strategist who's now founded his own research shop called Satori Insights, argues there's something else going on. He believes that the world's central banks have only really just begun to drain liquidity from the system, and that the market is still sensitive to the push and pull of their big balance sheets. In this episode, he explains how central banks have pulled the plug on risk assets, why stocks are faltering now, plus his general approach to analyzing markets. For more on what Joe and Tracy talked about in this episode:https://bloom.bg/3A2c6TVhttps://bloom.bg/4dpfVkzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged while suggesting that it could cut as soon as September. But there's an ongoing discussion about whether or not the Fed is behind the curve, with some of the most recent data suggesting that the economy is already slowing. On Thursday, for instance, initial jobless claims rose to the highest level in almost a year while the ISM survey showed manufacturing activity shrinking by the most in eight months. So is the Fed making a massive policy error by keeping rates on hold? And does it matter? We bring back Macquarie strategist Viktor Shvets to discuss the recent central bank decision, the macro outlook, and the impact of geopolitical uncertainty. Read More: Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to chips for artificial intelligence, obviously the name that automatically comes to mind is Nvidia. The company is making a fortune selling semiconductors used for hot AI applications like large language models, and stock investors have rewarded it handsomely for doing so. But of course, Nvidia's GPUs can be used for more than just AI. They're also used for video games, graphics, cryptocurrency mining and more. But a new startup called MatX is aiming to build the ultimate chip just for LLMs. Co-founders Reiner Pope and Mike Gunter spent years at Alphabet, which has its own internal semiconductor operations, and now they've stalked out on their own to create a new chip company from scratch. We talk about how they're going about their job, what it takes to actually design and build a chip, and what it will take to get customers to switch over from the industry leader. For more episodes on this topic: Coreweave's CSO on What It Really Takes to Build an AI DatacenterInside the Battle for Chips That Will Power Artificial Intelligence Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe here: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vapes like Elf bars seem to be everywhere now. Meanwhile, Zyn nicotine pouches have become a huge seller for Philip Morris and are in such demand that it's sometimes hard to find them in stores. So where are all these new nicotine products coming from? What's the regulatory approval process for these? And what is it like to launch a new nicotine product right now? In this episode, we speak with John Coogan, the former co-founder of dietary supplement Soylent and most recently the co-founder of Lucy Goods, which makes nicotine gum. We talk about the booming market for Zyn and other nicotine products, plus the byzantine ways in which some of these companies are structured. We also talk about the death of Juul and how we seem to have ended up with a very strange gray market for vapes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We've all seen headlines about the multi-million dollar properties being sold in Miami. Right now, there's a $135 million mansion in Coconut Grove listed on Zillow, and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has been snapping up a string of expensive properties in the city, including a $100 million waterfront estate. So what's it like to actually deal in this market? And what are the ultra-rich looking for exactly? In this episode, we speak with Dina Goldentayer, the No. 1 individual real estate agent for broker Douglas Elliman. She's been active in the Miami area for almost two decades and has seen the market for ultra-luxury homes boom alongside her career. We talk about the difference between being a realtor who sells homes for $500,000 versus one that sells homes for $5 million, and whether billionaires are really buying houses after seeing them on TikTok.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops," have become the hottest ticket on Wall Street. The business model is supposed to allow hedge funds to operate more efficiently. That includes deploying capital in a more productive manner and better managing risk. But how does risk management at some of the most sophisticated funds on Wall Street actually work? In this episode, we speak with Rich Falk-Wallace, formerly of Citadel and now the founder and CEO of Arcana, which provides risk management and portfolio software for multi-strat funds. We talk about how risk models are impacting investor behavior and wider markets, how multi-strat traders come up with their ideas, and the factors that go into sizing and evaluating their positions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are several sources of tension right now between the US and China. Pure trade anxiety is a big one, with the US having imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels and other important industrial components. Then, of course, there are direct geopolitical concerns, with fears over a possible move by Beijing against Taiwan. And then there's artificial intelligence, which countries all around the world see as a crucial geopolitical asset, with the potential to transform economies and militaries if and when it reaches sufficient strength and power. And so, American-based labs are going toe-to-toe with Chinese ones, investing enormous sums of money to get ahead and stay ahead in this race. But what is this actually all about? What kind of advantage does America have in the AI race and can it be maintained? How might it change under another term of President Trump? On this episode, we speak with Jordan Schneider of the ChinaTalk newsletter and podcast, as well as Kevin Xu of the Interconnected newsletter, to discuss the state of play.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When people talk about the special role that the US dollar plays in the global economy, that's often characterized as a privilege for the United States. It's seen as giving the government in Washington a great amount of fiscal flexibility, and it can be used as a means of punishing adversaries, by cutting them off from our banking system. But could it be that the currency dominance is actually a burden? JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, has made comments to this effect that dollar dominance doesn't serve America's interests well. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Matthew C. Klein, co-author of the book, Trade Wars Are Class Wars, which helped popularize this line of thinking. We talk about the drawbacks to the dollar's strength, how it can hurt the US economy, and what policy measures might ameliorate these effects. We also talk about trade policy more broadly, and what effects a more aggressive tariff regime might have under a second Trump administration.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

According to numerous estimates, the US is massively short of housing. Zillow, for instance, says America needs to build 4.5 million new homes to climb out of this deficit. But right now we're not coming anywhere near to closing that gap. And in fact, the efforts by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation have likely made things worse, with higher interest rates slowing the construction of multi-family dwellings. So is there a way to create more homes, even in a time of high rates? In this episode, we speak with Jim Millstein, co-chair of Guggenheim Securities and a former Treasury Department official who managed the restructuring of AIG after the 2008 financial crisis. Millstein has drawn up a plan whereby Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac can enter the market for construction finance and re-start it. He walks us through how — with their existing legal authority — these two entities could make hundreds of thousands of new affordable homes come to the market each year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now is taking a tough line on China. We saw President Trump put tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Biden administration has only added to them. A second Trump administration may add to them even further. Meanwhile, we're increasingly placing export restrictions on various technologies, such as semiconductors. Stephen Roach, the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and now a fellow at Yale Law School, foresees disaster from this. He sees an explosion of Sinophobia, with policymakers misreading China and ushering us into a new Cold War, where the risk of some kind of accidental conflict will inevitably rise. In this episode of the podcast, we talk about the current tensions, how they compare to the US-Japan trade tensions in the 1980s, and how things could go bad.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, scored big when he made his weight loss drug-related investments last year. He was also early into artificial intelligence investments, making bets on picks and shovels plays, like Nvidia. So what's interesting him right now? And how does a thematic investor grapple with uncertainty from things like the upcoming US election? We talk about the next stage of AI investing, constructing election-related portfolios, going long water, and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joseph Stiglitz is a Nobel Prize-winning economist known for his groundbreaking work on information gaps and risk-taking in markets. But he's recently turned his attention to supply chains and how to make them more resilient in the face of shocks like the 2020 pandemic. In this episode, we discuss why companies often hesitate to maintain extra inventories — and why this tends to be the case even during stable economic periods. We talk about possible solutions to incentivize firms to invest in larger capacity buffers and promote better long-term economic practices. The conversation also touches on industrial policy, the role of international institutions in the global economy, and strategies to ensure that economic growth benefits everyone more fairly. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Modern Monetary Theory has gained prominence over the last several years by offering an alternative view on the constraints to fiscal policy. The basic gist is that the size of the deficit is not per se problematic. What matters are real resource constraints, and that if government spending gets too high — or is spent in unproductive ways — then inflation can materialize as too much money collides with insufficient supply. Another argument that some MMT adherents make is that the conventional path to fighting inflation (higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve) can actually be inflationary, because the coupon payments made by the government to Treasury holders constitute a form of government spending or fiscal expansion. In this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Warren Mosler, the intellectual godfather of MMT, to explain the mechanisms at play and assess the current macro environment. Perhaps surprisingly, Mosler is concerned with the combination of high government debt loads, high deficits (which he characterizes as spending like a drunken sailor), and the orthodox approach the Fed is taking to fighting inflation. With debt as high as it is, the annual interest payments due to these rate hikes has gone up significantly, creating a situation that mainstream economists might call Fiscal Dominance. He explains how this environment is a recipe for consistently higher and sustained inflation in the years ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lumber prices have tumbled dramatically in recent weeks, with benchmark futures falling about 20% in the past four months alone. What's more, this is happening at the height of the summer homebuilding season, when there should theoretically be lots of demand for construction materials. In this episode of Lots More, we speak to one of our favorite guests about what's going on in the lumber market right now, and what falling prices might say about this important part of the US economy. Stinson Dean is the founder and owner of Deacon Lumber and he talks to us about why prices are crashing, what he's seeing in the market right now, and how the current environment differs from 2020 and 2021, when lumber prices went parabolic and mills couldn't keep up with demand.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There aren't many advanced manufacturing success stories in Latin America. And globally, there aren't many companies that can build commercial planes at scale. Yet somehow, one of the world's leading jet makers is Brazilian. Embraer is the third largest maker of commercial planes worldwide after Boeing and Airbus. On this episode, we talk about how the company came to be, what its opportunities are, and what lessons in economic development we can learn from its rise. We speak with two guests for the show. First, is Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, to understand the company's role in the aviation ecosystem. Then we speak with Juan David Rojas, a writer on Latin America, to understand the political conditions in Brazilian history that allowed the company to emerge and thrive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brad Jacobs has made a career of starting, consolidating, and growing whole industries. He did a trucking company. He did a warehouse company. He has a freight brokerage. He created an equipment rental company. His new venture, dubbed QXO, aims to reshape the big and sprawling market for building supplies, which can encompass residential, infrastructure and commercial real estate. And he has $4.5 billion of his and his investors' money to go out and buy and build. In this special episode of the Odd Lots podcast, recorded live at the Bloomberg Invest conference in New York City, he talks about where he is in the new process, and what he plans to do once he's made his acquisitions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Does it feel to you like society has gone crazy? Well, you're not alone. There's a general view that all around the world, in the realms of politics, culture, business, and so forth, a lot of people are losing their minds. So if this is true, what's the reason for it? On this episode we speak with Dan Davies, the author of the new book The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions - And How The World Lost Its Mind. Dan talks about the field of study known as cybernetics, and the inevitable outcomes of systems that grow more and more complex. This complexity -- which describes many things in the modern world, and leads to what Dan calls "accountability sinks," or entities that basically exist just to be blamed for things that have gone wrong. Dan walks us through how these emerged in the modern world, where things are headed, and how the trend could theoretically be reversed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, the top economist over at Renaissance Macro, has generally been sunny and optimistic about the economy over the last four years or so. But now he's warning of a possible mistake by the Federal Reserve. In his view, the central bank is waiting too long to get confirmation that inflation is coming back to target. Meanwhile, unemployment is starting to creep up in a meaningful way. As he sees it, if you're still worried about upside risk to inflation at this point, you need to have a theory about where that inflation is going to come from — and it's really hard to come up with an answer for that right now, given the general downward momentum in hiring and the overall economy. In this episode of Lots More, we catch up with Neil to talk about the risk that the Fed will blow the soft landing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From cars to toys to clothes, we're just used to seeing the label "Made In China" on all sorts of things. But how did China become a go-to destination for manufactured goods in the first place? Who actually recognized that there was a huge opportunity to tap the abundant, low-cost labor to sell goods to Western consumers? On this episode of the podcast we speak with Elizabeth Ingleson, a professor at the London School of Economics and the author of the book Made in China: When US-China Interests Converged to Transform Global Trade. Ingleson traces the roots of the US-China trade relationship to a handful of US entrepreneurs in the early 1970s who first went into the country and recognized its opportunity as an export powerhouse. We discuss who these individuals were, the obstacles they had to overcome, and how they reshaped the entire global economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The stock market has had a torrid run in 2024 despite the fact that interest rate cuts haven't materialized in the way people had expected at the start of the year. In fact, outside of a few blips here and there (like spring 2020), US stocks have been phenomenal performers for years. Tom Lee, the founder of Fundstrat and FS Insight has been bullish for a long time, having caught the correct side of this lengthy trend. On this episode, we speak to the former JPMorgan strategist about how he thinks about the market, what he sees happening right now in macro and demographic trends, and why he thinks it’s plausible that the market could roughly triple in the next six years.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows that the AI boom is built upon the voracious consumption of chips (largely sold by Nvidia) and electricity. And while the legacy cloud operators, like Amazon or Microsoft, are in this space, the nature of the computing shift is opening up new space for new players in the market. One of the hottest companies is CoreWeave, a company backed in part by Nvidia, which has grown its datacenter business massively. So how does their business actually work? How do they get energy? Where do they locate operations? How are they financed? What's the difference between a cloud AI and a legacy cloud? On this episode, we speak with CoreWeave's Chief Strategy Officer Brian Venturo about what it takes to build out operations at this scale.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Virtually everyone, across the ideological spectrum, has the view right now that it's too hard to build things (or get things done generally) in America. New infrastructure is thwarted by red tape and permitting. New housing is thwarted by YIMBYism. Even something that doesn't require much new construction -- like NYC's attempt to impose congestion pricing -- is difficult to get done after years and years of wrangling. What is the core problem? And what can be done to address it? On this episode, we speak with John Arnold, who started his career as an energy trader at Enron, before going on to found a highly successful energy hedge fund. Now in his role as the co-founder of Arnold Ventures, he works on policy solutions to address these key bottlenecks. We discuss how he goes about philanthropy to affect policy change, the problems he's identified, and what solutions could be put in place to improve domestic development.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Throughout history, financial markets have struggled with the issue of borders. Borders create friction, add cost and cause headaches for anyone who wants to spend money across them. On top of that, various national currencies can be wildly unstable. Could a borderless, global currency ease friction and enhance financial inclusion and stability around the world? Cryptocurrencies offer an intriguing possible solution to money’s border problem. And a particular kind of cryptocurrency, called stablecoins, could become a powerful medium of exchange for international payments - and offer people around the world increased economic freedom. This episode is sponsored by Coinbase. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For much of this year, the S&P 500 has marched steadily higher while measures of stock market volatility, like the VIX, have stayed pretty low. But looking at the headline index only tells you part of the story. Beneath the surface of the S&P 500, individual stocks have been moving up and down a lot. And of course, traders have figured out a way to make money on the difference between the quiet overall index and all that volatility happening in individual stocks. This is the dispersion trade that's gotten quite a bit of attention in recent months. But figuring out exactly who's doing it and how pervasive it is isn't that easy. In this episode, we speak with Michael Purves, CEO and founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, and Josh Silva, managing partner and CIO at Passaic Partners, about this new volatility trade and what it means for the overall stock market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few lucky people have made generational wealth trading the ups and downs of the crypto market. And some finance professionals have shifted gears to focus primarily on the space. But what is it like to actually trade these coins day-to-day? How do people pick which ones to buy? How do they analyze the coins themselves? How do they get reliable information? And what is it like, emotionally, to trade such an infamously volatile asset? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Julian Malinak. In his day job, Julian works in healthcare tech. But the rest of the time, he's looking on message boards for the next 100-bagger. At one point he had made enough to retire on. And then it all went poof. But he keeps grinding and trying to improve his craft. Julian — who we found on the Odd Lots Discord server — explains what he does all day, and how the market really works from a trading perspective. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's been a huge change in the market for nickel, which goes into everything from electric vehicles to steel. Indonesia has grown to absolutely dominate production and now provides more than 55% of the world's supply. A lot of that is going to China, which has partnered with Indonesia to help grow its nickel industry at a phenomenal rate. Now, there are accusations that low-grade and low-priced Indonesian nickel is flooding the global market, to the detriment of other producers. Western miners like BHP and Anglo American have been shuttering their own nickel operations, and have written them down by billions of dollars in recent years. On this episode, we speak with Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, about the sea change that's taken place in the world's nickel market and what it says about the green energy transition, as well as the scramble for other strategically important metals. We also talk about all those bullish calls on copper, and general volatility in the metals space.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The company that Elon Musk is most known for, obviously, is Tesla. It's been extraordinarily successful and made him one of the richest people in the world. But his true love may be SpaceX, the rocket company whose technology may one day be used in getting humans to Mars. But even if interplanetary trips are a long way off, there's no historical precedent for the sheer scale of the outer space dominance that Elon Musk has built out. Between his rockets and his satellite-based internet company Starlink, no one individual has ever completely dominated outer space this way. So where are these businesses going and how do they fit into the Elon empire? On this episode, we speak to three of our Bloomberg colleagues who have covered Musk and his businesses. First, we talk about the history and science of rockets with Bloomberg News reporter Ashlee Vance, the author of the book, When the Heavens Went on Sale: The Misfits and Geniuses Racing to Put Space Within Reach. Then we speak with Dana Hull and Max Chafkin, two of the hosts of Bloomberg's Elon Inc. podcast, about Musk's broader constellation of companies and how they all fit together.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rise of GLP-1 drugs, like Ozempic, is a potentially existential threat to the makers of salty, sugary, high-calorie snack foods. But it's obvious that the gigantic food industry will search out ways to adapt. So what types of new products will they sell? How will they be flavored? How will they be packaged and marketed? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Barb Stuckey. She is the chief innovation and marketing officer at Mattson, a San Francisco Bay Area company that helps food producers find the next big flavor. Her team recently undertook a big study of Ozempic users to get a better understanding of how it changed their diets. She speaks to us about what they learned, what new types of products are in development, and how food manufacturers find the next big thing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kyla Scanlon has a great way of identifying the economic vibes, building up a massive TikTok following with videos about the Federal Reserve, inflation, markets, and more. She also coined the viral term 'vibecession' to describe the mood of many Americans who haven't been feeling the economic growth shown in official figures. In this episode of Lots More, we catch up with the Bloomberg Opinion contributor on what the vibes are right now, what resonates on social media when it comes to economic coverage, and her new book, In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last year was a bad one for the US wind power industry, with lots of cancelled projects, writedowns, and an overall reassessment of how the math behind these mega projects might shake out in an era of higher interest rates and supply chain disruptions. But despite all of that, renewable power from wind is still a big part of America's plans to transition towards cleaner energy, with billions of government dollars earmarked to help build out capacity. So what went wrong last year and how is the industry looking now? On this episode, we speak with David Hardy, CEO of the Americas for Orsted, one of the biggest players in wind power. He talks about recent challenges, the potential implications of another Trump presidency, as well as when we might see subsidy-free onshore wind projects in the US.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What's the price of a hamburger? Well, it depends. Are you making the purchase on the spot? Did you order ahead using an app? Are you a frequent customer of the burger chain? With inflation having surged at the fastest rate in roughly four decades, there's suddenly a lot more interest in how companies figure out the most that they can charge you for a given purchase at that moment in time. As it turns out, much of the economy is becoming like the airline industry, where there is no one price for a good, but rather a complex range of factors that go into what you're willing to pay. Thanks to algorithms, apps, personalized data, and a bevy of ancillary revenues, companies are increasingly learning how to not leave any pennies on the table. So how did this come about? What exactly is happening? And when did everything become gamified? On this episode we speak with Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, and David Dayen, the executive editor of The American Prospect. The two of them have put together a special episode of the magazine that's all about the world of pricing strategies, the tools companies use, and the industries that exist to help companies figure out what they can charge. We discuss what they learned and the impact this is having on the economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the past two weeks, two New York City office buildings have become major talking points in the market for commercial real estate. Troubles at 1740 Broadway led to the first loss in the AAA-rated tranche of a commercial mortgage bond since the financial crisis. Meanwhile, issues at 1440 Broadway recently propelled the serious delinquency rate for office loans to its highest level since early 2007. So what do these two properties tell us about the outlook for commercial real estate, and how these deals work? On this episode of Lots More, we bring back Hiten Samtani, founder of ten31 Media, to talk about the future of these buildings, as well as their storied history.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.