Odd Lots

Stocks plunged after the April 2 "Liberation Day," in one of the worst drawdowns in the market's history. Since then, however, we're basically back to all-time highs and things have been pretty calm in the market. On this episode, recorded live onstage at our June 26 event in New York, we speak to Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott, about what's been driving the rally. He says he's seen "relentless" selling of volatility as investors who sold back in April chase the rally. That's culminated in some weird market dynamics. The question, of course, is how long this can continue and what it would take to unsettle things from here.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Okay, that's quite a title but we think it's justified! In this special episode — recorded live onstage at our June 26 event in New York City — we bring together some of the best thinkers we know when it comes to the US Treasury market. US government bonds form the backbone of global financial markets, and are the "risk-free" rate to which all other rates are benchmarked. But recently, there's been concern about who will buy all those bonds as the US deficit explodes higher. Meanwhile, there have been long-running concerns about volatility and liquidity in the market. We speak with Nellie Liang, senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution and former undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance, Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Josh Younger, a lecturer at Columbia University and repeated Odd Lots guest.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robinhood, the company known for first introducing commission-free trading, has now become a behemoth with all kinds of different business lines including credit cards, savings vehicles, crypto, and wealth management. This week it's announced further expansion with news that it's launching its own chain, as well as tokenized stock trading (that for now is only available in the EU). On this episode, we speak with founder and CEO Vlad Tenev about its new endeavors, as well as the legacy of the 2021 meme stock mania, the evolution of the YOLO traders, the changing regulatory environment, and when we can expect to have 24/7 on-chain stock trading in the US.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For awhile there was just MicroStrategy (which has since been renamed as Strategy.) It started buying Bitcoin, and then raised money to buy more Bitcoin, and the stock has done phenomenally well, despite the company not doing much else beside holding Bitcoin. But now it has spawned numerous copycats all doing the same thing. But the question is why? Why are people willing to buy shares of a company that owns Bitcoin, rather than just buying Bitcoin outright (which anyone can easily do now that there's an ETF)? On this episode of the podcast, recorded live in New York City, we speak with famed short-seller Jim Chanos about this phenomenon. We also talk about NYC real estate in the age of Zohran Mamdani, the latest at Tesla, private equity, and whether AI can replace people who understand accounting. Read more:Michael Saylor Shifts to Using Preferred Shares to Buy Bitcoin as Criticism RisesMusk Confidant Afshar Leaves Tesla in Latest High-Level Exit Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Think of a biotech company and most people will think of a business trying to come up with cures and treatments for human illnesses. There's not a lot of discussion about companies trying to do the same for animals, insects, or even... crustaceans. And yet, healthy animals are a key part of the ecosystem and important for our food supply. In this episode we speak to Annette Kleiser, CEO of Dalan Animal Health, which has developed the world's first vaccine for bees and is now working on a similar treatment to protect shrimp. We talk about the development and regulatory process, plus what it's actually like raising money for a brand new business. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Iran is a huge country with a sizable stock market. And yet, years of sanctions and other restrictions mean it’s tough to even look up its stock prices (much less invest there.) In this episode, we catch up with Maciej Wojtal, CEO and CIO of AmtelonCapital, an Amsterdam-based fund that specializes in Iranian stocks. We talk about what the past week has been like for the market, what he’s hearing from people on the ground in Tehran, plus disruptions to businesses and oil. We talk about how Iranian investors handle major geopolitical risk and the outlook from here.Read more: Iran’s Khamenei Says US Intervention in War Achieved Nothing Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We talk all the time about the US attempting to become a powerhouse in advanced manufacturing, but a lot of it just sounds like talk that's not going anywhere. But some companies are trying. Boom Supersonic is an 11-year old company that has raised hundreds of millions of dollars in its quest to build a new supersonic jet for commercial air passengers. And it believes that just because the business model of the Concorde didn't work out in the end, that there's no reason there can't be a market for ultra-fast travel in the sky. On this episode, we spoke with Boom founder and CEO Blake Scholl about the business, and how they actually plan to manufacture planes. We discuss the challenges of advanced manufacturing in the United States and why he believes that small startups can succeed, even while legacy aerospace firms like Boeing stumble.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's episode is a re-run of our interview from last month with Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. On June 24, Mamdani won the first round of the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City, making him the presumptive party nominee and the early favorite to win November's general election. So it's the perfect time to revisit the candidate and his unique platform. Endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, he's proposing rent freezes, universal childcare, higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, free buses, and city-run grocery stores. In this conversation, we talked to the would-be mayor about his socialist vision for New York, including how he plans to fund more public goods, what he would do to ensure that government-run services are up to standard, and why there should be Halal carts on every street corner. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right now, Nvidia stock is back near its all-time highs, thanks to seemingly unquenchable demand for its AI chips. When it comes to profiting off of this boom, Nvidia's lead and lock-in looks almost unassailable. But there is one particular company that is clearly on the mind of CEO Jensen Huang, and that is Huawei. On this episode, we speak with Washington Post reporter Eva Dou, the author of the new book House of Huawei: The Secret History of China's Most Powerful Company. Her book explains how the historical development of Huawei is basically synonymous with the rise of modern China, having started early on in Shenzhen, when that was one of the few parts of the country where capitalism and free enterprise were allowed to take root. She discusses what the company does, how it became so strong, its links to the Chinese government, and how it emerged as a possible rival to Nvidia. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Madison Carter is a fearless investigative reporter. She takes no day for granted because she lives with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Dr. Doug Melton is a world-renowned stem cell researcher and distinguished fellow at Vertex – and his now grown children, Sam and Emma, live with T1D. Along with scientists like Dr. Felicia Pagliuca, who leads Vertex’s research into T1D, he’s been on a quest to help Madison, Sam, Emma, and others like them by investigating the disease at a cellular level.   Produced by Bloomberg Media Studios and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quantitative investing is one of those terms that you hear all the time, but there's various explanations of what it actually means, or how quants actually make money. And of course, the term means different things in different contexts. In this live episode, recorded at the Bloomberg Equity Intelligence Summit on June 12, we speak again with Giuseppe Paleologo, the head of quantitative research at Balyasny Asset Management. We talk about his role, what quant investing actually is, and what the future of the space actually entails.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Zichen Wang is the writer of the Pekingnology newsletter, which translates important speeches and articles from China into English, and contextualizes them for Western readers. Over the past year, he's been a master's degree student at Princeton University, although he's recently returned home to resume his career at a think tank in China. His stint in the US obviously came at a very interesting time, both due to the rising US-China tensions, and also the growing restrictions on Chinese students in the US. So before making his trip back home he joined us for another episode of Odd Lots. We discussed his experience here in America, his assessment of the state of US-China relations, and what his message will be upon his return to China. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After the GFC, there was a lot of angst over the fact that so much effort and brainpower went into designing complex derivatives, and other financial instruments. Not only was this seen as wasteful, the complexity was deemed to be the heart of the crisis, and therefore bad. But all these years later, looking back, how bad is financial complexity really? What do things look like from the perspective of 2025. On this episode we're joined by Gillian Tett, a columnist at the Financial Times, and also the author of several books including Fool's Gold: The Inside Story of J.P. Morgan and How Wall St. Greed Corrupted Its Bold Dream and Created a Financial Catastrophe. We talked about her reporting on the evolution of financial derivatives, their legacy, what she is concerned about now, and why she sees the world entering into a new, post-neoliberal, fifth stage of capitalism.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Somehow, the American consumer remains quite strong. Despite higher interest rates, tariffs, general economic uncertainty and so forth, people are continuing to spend. And yet there are some pockets of weakness that you can observe, especially if you look at delinquency data for various types of credit. But even here the patterns aren’t totally obvious, as it doesn’t break down nicely among prime vs. non-prime borrowers. But there is one important divide: Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or not? According to Morgan Stanley housing strategist Jim Egan, there is a massive difference in how strained people are for those who locked in their housing costs prior to 2021 vs. those who didn’t. People with ZIRP-era mortgages are benefiting from low stable payments (which have declined on a real basis), as well as broad equity accumulation. Those who didn’t are much more strained in their finances. We discuss how this is playing out, as well as the state of the housing market more broadly, which has seen rising inventories, and the possibility for an overall downturn in prices nationwide. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in May, President Trump announced this big plan whereby American tech giants would participate in major AI projects in both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The announcement has created divisions within the White House, and more generally among people who are thinking about the intersection of artificial intelligence and geopolitics. One argument is that this is great news geopolitically, because it gives American technology a beachhead in this crucial region. Another argument is that by exporting the chips abroad, it creates a possibility that some of the technology will leak to China, or benefit China in some way. On this episode we speak with Bloomberg News reporter Mackenzie Hawkins, who covers tech and geopolitics in Hong Kong, about the deals, the divisions, and what to watch next as the US looks to maintain its edge in these key areas. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox now delivered every weekday plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration seems to have a lot of big ideas about reshaping America, including its economy. We've seen the unveiling (and delaying) of sweeping tariffs aimed at boosting US manufacturing. The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' is currently working its way through Congress and features a lot of supply-side economic ideas, including an extension of tax cuts. So do all of these things work together to boost growth? What happens if that growth doesn't materialize? What is the administration's ultimate vision for the US economy? And what are they seeing right now in terms of things like inflation and employment? We speak with Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers at the White House.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The focus of Trump's trade policies is clearly China. There are tariffs on everyone, of course, but it's the growing Chinese manufacturing might, and the various perceived risks associated with that, which have catalyzed this impulse to rethink how America trades with the rest of the world. But can the US actually move the manufacturing center of gravity? On this episode we welcome back Harvard Professor Ricardo Hausmann. We've had him on before to talk about the importance of economic complexity -- the capacity to build complex things -- in measuring the wealth of nations. On this episode we use that lens to discuss tariffs and the trade war, and the risks that the new administration's policies will play in reducing our capacity to build the most advanced things. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox now delivered every weekday plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days, it's common to talk about the emergence of a New Cold War that exists between the US and China. It's debatable whether or not this is a useful framing. But in order to answer the question, it requires that you have some conception of what the original Cold War actually was. Vladislav Zubok, a professor at the London School of Economics, has a new book out on exactly this question. In The World of the Cold War: 1945-1991, Zubok attempts to explain how we should understand this period, which he sees as both an ideological battle, as well as a geo-strategic one — and also a battle that the two main actors (the US and the USSR) saw very differently at the time. In addition to understanding the contours of that tension, we discuss its applicability today, as the new administration attempts to re-arrange our relationship with China and the Middle East, as well as other rivals, allies, and partners.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Businessweek brings you a smart and fun chat show about all things...business. Hosted by award-winning business and economics journalists Max Chafkin (author of The Contrarian: Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley’s Pursuit of Power) and Stacey Vanek Smith (former co-host of NPR’s Planet Money and reporter for Marketplace), Everybody's Business is powered by the unparalleled sources and reporters who bring you Businessweek magazine’s headlines and the stories behind them. The show gives listeners a window into the discussions happening in boardrooms, Zooms and group chats in power centers around the world. From interpreting Fed meetings to the business of wolf cloning, each week Max, Stacey and their friends at Bloomberg Businessweek guide listeners through what really went on during the last week from Wall Street and Main Street. Because what’s happening with money and markets is everybody’s business.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Egg prices have come down a lot since their recent record and bird flu has largely faded from the headlines. But the epidemic is still raging and, per one farmer, risks becoming endemic in the US. Glenn Hickman is president of Hickman's Egg Ranch in Arizona, one of the largest egg producers in the US. You might remember him from our series last year, Beak Capitalism, in which we explored some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of chickens. Well, news from the Hickman farm since then hasn't been good. A bird flu outbreak has led to the destruction of 90% of Glenn's chicken stock. We talk about the impact on Glenn's business, egg prices, and why the US isn't vaccinating its chickens.Check out Beak CapitalismRead more: To Understand America’s Egg Crisis, Look to China’s Pork Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're about two months on from Liberation Day, and there's still a lot of confusion about what's going on with global trade. Some countries, like China, have been granted delays from tariffs. But other trade restrictions, like the 50% tariff on foreign steel, have come into effect. So what exactly is going on and what impact is this having on the physical flow of goods into America? In this episode, we catch up with Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of LA, to get a sense of what he's actually seeing and what it means for US consumers and the prospect of empty store shelves.Read more: Port Leaders Warn Tariffs Bring ‘Radical Uncertainty’ to EconomyEmpty Store Shelves Might Be Coming Sooner Than You ThinkOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To some extent, at least in big cities, it feels as though the cost of housing is enveloping almost everything else in terms of politics right now. Booming areas that drive GDP have gotten incredibly expensive in large part thanks to rent, and even the well paid residents are forced to turn over a significant share of their income over to their landlord. So can anything be done about it? Can rent come down by liberalizing supply and making it easier to build? And can that scale? And what about developers that only want to build luxury-rate housing? On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Steven Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, which sits directly across the river from NYC. Fulop is a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination for governor and he says his time in office in Jersey City proves cities can turn the dial on housing supply. We talk about why Jersey City has added so much to its housing stock, what can be attributed to his policies, and what he thinks can be accomplished at the state level both in terms of housing and improving public infrastructure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump wants Apple to make iPhones in America. The company itself has talked about — and to some extent already has been — moving more of its production to other countries, like India. But in reality, Apple remains deeply, deeply enmeshed in the Chinese supply chain. In fact, the rise of Apple, and the iPhone specifically, is the ultimate example of the link between the American and Chinese economies. And while this has been fruitful for shareholders all around the world, and contributed greatly to Chinese economic development, this relationship is also now perceived to be a huge source of geopolitical vulnerability for the United States. On this episode, we speak with Patrick McGee, a reporter at the Financial Times and the author of the new book Apple In China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company. He talks to us about how Apple discovered the opportunity of doing more manufacturing in China, and how close the company has become with Chinese political leadership. We walk through both the politics and the economics that makes it almost impossible to imagine the company building its products anywhere else at significant scale.Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is a currency? This turns out to be one of those questions we just kind of skip over because we don't have clear answers to it (and because economists often like to skip over these foundational things). This special episode of the Odd Lots podcast was recorded as part of Princeton University's “How to Write the Biography of a Currency” event, hosted by the Princeton Economic History Workshop and the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance. In this discussion, we talk about how we should define a currency and how that definition has changed (or not) over time. Our panelists were Iñaki Aldasoro, an economist at the Bank for International Settlements, Indiana University Bloomington Professor Rebecca Spang, and Stefan Ingves, the former head of the Sveriges Riksbank, the central bank of Sweden, from 2006 to 2022. Read more:Dollar Drops on Renewed Trade Uncertainty, Soft Economic DataAsia’s $7.5 Trillion Bet on US Assets Is Suddenly Unraveling Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're told over and over again that the one "free lunch" in investing is diversification, and that you can improve your returns over time simply by investing in a wider range of assets. This is textbook modern finance. And yet over the past several years this hasn't been the case. An investor would have done great (with the occasional hiccups) just by investing in US stocks. What's more, even within US stocks, investors should have concentrated on big tech stocks. Going long US tech has been identified as the most crowded trade by investors for years, and yet most of the time it has outperformed almost everything else. So what are the lessons from this story? And is now the moment where international diversification is going to work? On this episode, we speak with veteran portfolio manager Krishna Memani, who is now the chief investment officer at Lafayette College. Previously, he was the CIO at OppenheimerFunds, which got bought by Invesco. We talk about portfolio theory, the tragedy of the prudent international investor over recent decades, and whether that realized return we've seen across a range of asset classes should prompt a fundamental rethink of finance theory. Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Cembalest has been an investment analyst for almost 40 years and his research notes have drawn a cult following on Wall Street. He's known for going super deep into a wide range of topics, like energy and healthcare. And lately he's been writing a lot about AI, with a particular interest in figuring out whether all the investment in data centers and compute will translate into actual profits. On this episode, we talk to the chair of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management about why AI is the market "bet of the century," why the dominance of US big tech can't be overstated, and why he's pessimistic about the outlook for small modular nuclear reactors.Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Multi-strategy hedge funds have been having a moment with big asset allocators pouring billions of dollars into names like Millennium and Citadel. And given all the growth, multi-strat funds have also been battling each other for talent. But why, exactly, do big investors seem to love multi-strats so much? What actually makes a multi-strat good to invest in? And how do fees and compensation work? In this episode, we speak with Ronan Cosgrave, a partner at Albourne Partners, which advises institutional investors on investing in hedge funds and other alternative asset classes. We talk about key differences between multi-strats and pod shops, plus the importance of pay to the business model.The Math Powering Profits at Multi-Strategy Hedge FundsMultistrategy Hedge Funds Delivered Again in 2024 Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're just a month away from the hotly-contested Democratic primary for New York City Mayor. And one of the candidates -- Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani -- is running on a somewhat unusual platform. Endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, he's proposing rent freezes, universal childcare, higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, free buses, and city-run grocery stores. In this conversation, we talk to the would-be mayor about his socialist vision for New York, including how he plans to fund more public goods, what he would do to ensure that government-run services are up to standard, and why there should be Halal carts on every street corner. Read more: NYC Mayor Ditches Democratic Primary to Seek Independent BidOdd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week the big story in markets is the selloff in bonds. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries jumped 20 basis points from last Friday’s low, while the 30-year rate is back above 5%. Meanwhile, 30-year Japanese government bonds clocked their highest yield since records began in 1999. And rates on UK gilts, German bunds, and Australian bonds are also rising. To make matters even more unusual, US Treasury yields are going up while the dollar is weakening (something that doesn’t usually happen.) So what’s going on? And how much does this have to with worries over the US fiscal position, the return of inflation, and the outlook for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve? On this episode, we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered. We talk about what’s driving the dramatic moves and the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy.Read more:Deglobalization’s Threat to the Bond MarketUS Bonds Swing as Dip Buyers Enter After Moody’s-Fueled SelloffOdd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When we think about the prospect of deglobalization (whatever that means) we often think about it in terms of the goods economy. Supply chains get rerouted. Manufacturing becomes more localized, and possibly less efficient. But changes to the global world order also have implications for Wall Street, and the world of dealmaking. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Scott Bok, the longtime former chairman and CEO of the investment bank Greenhill & Co., which is now part of Mizuho. Scott is the author of the new book, Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing, which covers his long career as an investment banker starting in the early 1980s. We talk about what investment bankers actually do, and also how the great Wall Street dealmaking boom over the last several decades is, in large part, a story of globalization, and the opportunity for firms to roll up localized companies into cross-border giants. He talks to us about how the bankers themselves served as essentially evangelists of the pro-capitalism message of the Reagan era, spreading the gospel of shareholder primacy all around the world. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is obviously an extraordinarily difficult time to make economic forecasts. Nobody really knows how tariffs will affect the US economy. And beyond that, nobody knows what the ultimate state of tariffs will be, or if they'll ever settle into a predictable rate. So how do you conduct monetary policy in this environment? On this episode, recorded at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta, we spoke with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. He walked us through how he's thinking about the dual mandate right now, and why he has significantly dialed back his expectations for aggressive rate cuts since the start of 2025. Read More:For Exhausted Stock Market Pros the Choice Is Buy or Stay HomePowell Signals 2020 Fed Framework Language on Chopping Block Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The new administration has a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and a much more liberal attitude towards the oil and gas industry than the last one. But that hasn't translated into great profits for the oil industry itself. Crude prices have sunk and tariffs have raised the cost of components for companies trying to get energy out of the ground. So, what's the future for the industry? And who is actually making money right now? In this episode, we talk to longtime energy industry veteran Peter Tertzakian, the founder and president of Studio.energy, which consults with various industry players. We discuss the state of the overall North American energy industry, the prospects of peak onshore oil production in the United States, pipeline politics, and why liquified natural gas is expected to be the hydrocarbon of the future. Read more:Say Hello to ‘Nil, Baby, Nil’ in the Oil PatchTrump’s Thirst for Cheap Oil Irks an Industry He Loves to Praise Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's been a lot of talk recently about parallels between Donald Trump's economic policies and the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s. That was when the former president took the dollar off the gold standard, introduced hefty tariffs, and pressured the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The moves sparked stagflation in the US and shook up the global monetary order. Now, given Trump's determination to rebalance the US relationship with global trading partners and his criticism of the Fed, could history repeat itself? On this episode, we speak with Perry Mehrling, professor of international political economy at Boston University's Pardee School of Global Studies, and the author of the book Money and Empire. We talk to him about similarities and differences between the Trump administration's current economic policies and the Nixon Shock, as well as why he thinks dollar dominance won't be dislodged anytime soon.Read more:Dollar Poised for Worst First 100 Days of Presidency Since NixonThe Problem With the Fed Isn’t Independence, It’s Accountability Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gold prices have been booming and are near record highs. And seeing the line go up — especially during a period of so much uncertainty —  makes people want to buy more. That includes acquiring actual gold coins. But where do gold coins come from? Why do people want coins, as opposed to just bullion? And who is buying them? On this episode, we speak with Philip Diehl, the president of gold vendor US Money Reserve. Earlier in his career, he was the 35th director of the US Mint, where he was instrumental in such endeavors as the 50 States quarter project, the Sacagawea dollar coin, and also the language that allows for the creation of the trillion-dollar platinum coin. We talk all about the business and supply chain of coinage, and who's buying these coins today. Watch on YouTubeRead more: Gold Advances as Market Weighs Upcoming US-China Trade Talks Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox -- now delivered every weekday --  plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last several years, the world has watched as China edges close to or past the technological frontier in more and more areas. Earlier this year, US investors were jolted even further when DeepSeek's AI model proved to be close to the state of the art American models. So what is the process by which China actually develops new tech? Why has it worked out so well? And how do priorities set by President Xi Jinping actually get transmitted to researchers and businesses? On this episode, we speak to Kaiser Kuo, the host of the Sinica podcast. He discusses the cultural dimension of tariffs, and what he sees as a fundamentally different attitude towards the benefits of technological progress in China vs. what is seen in the US.Read more:I’m a DeepSeek AI Bro Now Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America's textile industry has famously declined over the years, with a bunch of production moving to lower-cost places like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Now, with the Trump administration imposing heavy tariffs on exports from these countries, the US clothing industry is facing another big shock. In this episode we speak with Sarah LaFleur, founder and CEO of M.M.LaFleur, which makes high-quality work clothing for women (Tracy is a big fan). She walks us through what the past month has actually been like for a smaller clothing business trying to understand and deal with the tariffs. We talk about the conversations she's been having with mills and factories in China, how the tariffs are already impacting future seasons of clothing, the scramble to secure space on ships before the tariffs hit, and how businesses actually pay the new taxes.Read more: A New ‘China Shock’ Is Destroying Jobs Around the WorldOne Ship, $417 Million in New Tariffs: The Cost of Trump’s Trade WarOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as 125% on Chinese goods. For an export-focused economy like China's, that's a big deal. At the same time, China is pretty much the only major country that's chosen to retaliate against the US with its own set of fresh trade restrictions. So why did it decide to reciprocate? And what's its negotiating position as the US and China head into initial talks? Can the Chinese economy -- and its policymakers -- withstand the pain of a trade war? We speak to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics and a long-time China watcher, about how China might actually respond to the new tariff regime. Read more:Xi Fortifies China’s Economy Before First Talks on Trade With USWhat Years of Practice Tariffs Have Done Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Every industry is going to be affected by the trade war in different ways. In many cases, we don't know how it's going to play out. Other industries are seeing an immediate impact. Companies that specialize in computer gaming are highly reliant on inputs from China and other East Asian countries. These companies assemble customized gaming rigs and other peripherals (cameras, chairs, controllers, speakers etc.). On this episode, we're joined by Stephen Burke, the founder of Gamers Nexus, a publication and YouTube channel that primarily exists to review products in this space. When the tariffs were announced in early April, he immediately set out to film a documentary titled The Death of Affordable Computing. In that 3-hour video, he talked to numerous players in the space on their profit margins, and how they will be hurt by the changing trade policy. We speak to Steve about this industry, and what he learned about what tariffs will do to both their profitability, or even their viability as ongoing businesses. Read more:Microsoft Raises Xbox and Game Prices, Citing Rising CostsAmazon, Apple Earnings Show Tariffs Are Coming for Big Tech, Too Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar assets, such as corporate bonds. Suddenly, they're looking at a major hit to the value of these holdings, with losses that are only partially hedged. So why the sudden move, and what does it mean? On this episode, we speak with Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We first talked to Brad about exactly this topic back in 2019, when the story was more of an intellectual curiosity rather than a market-moving development. We discuss the implications, and what it means in the context of the Trump administration's trade strategy. More:Why Taiwanese Life Insurers Are The Great ‘Whodunit' Of The Financial WorldTaiwan’s Markets Jolted as Currency Surges Most Since 1980s Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What does history say about how big the AI boom can get, and who will ultimately win out? When does a boom turn into a bubble that turns into a bust? On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Henry Blodget, the founder of Business Insider (and Joe's old boss there). In the late '90s, Henry was one of the most well-known Wall Street analysts covering internet stocks, before the crash and recriminations, which ended up in his lifetime ban from the industry. His new project is a publication called Regenerator, which will again focus on business and tech. We discuss the state of the AI boom, and what lessons we can draw from the dot-com era. We also talk politics, what's changed on Wall Street over the last 25 years or so, and a bit on the state of the media business. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last several years, both parties in the US have been drifting away from laissez-faire thinking about the economy, and more towards the view that the state has an active role in shaping markets. You have Republicans talking about stricter anti-trust and sovereign wealth funds, and of course Democrats embracing things like industrial policy efforts in key strategic sectors. But how do you design markets well? When does it fail? And what is the history of this type of thing in the US. In this episode, we speak with Facebook co-founder-turned-economist Chris Hughes, who has published the new book Marketcrafters: The 100-Year Struggle to Shape the American Economy. In this conversation, recorded at the New York Public Library in April, we talk about his research on the history of marketcraft in the US, and how that study of history informs his understanding of today's economic policymaking.Read more: Markets Plummet as Tariff-War Woes Fuel Exodus From US AssetsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We don't know what the end state for the tariffs are going to be, but inevitably there will be some shifts in the way that goods and dollars flow around the world economy. Of course, some parts of the economy are always subject to changing rules around subsidies and tariffs, and that's particularly true in agriculture. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Murad Al-Katib, the President and CEO of AGT Foods and Ingredients, who is sometimes known as The Lentil King of Saskatchewan. He is credited as being a driving force in turning the Canadian Province into a powerhouse of chickpea and lentil exports all around the world. He explains to us why he saw an opportunity in this space, why it's boomed, how the global trade and supply chain of these plants work, and how his company navigates perpetual shifts in agriculture policy around the world.Read more: Trump’s Canada Tariffs Draw Lawsuit by Blackfeet Nation MembersOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows by now that college endowment funds have gone big on alternative investing, pouring billions of dollars into private equity and hedge funds. But that investing model now seems to be under pressure and there are reports that Ivy League institutions like Yale and Harvard are looking to unload some of their more illiquid investments. So why did colleges get into alts in the first place? And how do they select which funds to invest in? In this episode, we speak with Joe Dowling, the former head of Brown University's endowment. Joe is now global head of multi-asset investing at Blackstone, one of the biggest institutional investors around. He talks about the rise of alts, how college funds got so invested, the pressures they're facing right now, and the boom in multi-strats.Read more: Harvard in Talks to Sell $1 Billion of Private Equity StakesBlackstone’s King of Hedge Funds Shakes Up Its Lagging BusinessOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments that were already stretched. Bill Beach was commissioner of labor statistics and head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump's first presidency and also during President Biden's. On this episode, we talk to him about the importance of official data and why the rails for economic data are deteriorating so quickly. Read more:Houston, We Have a Data ProblemThe US Economy Is Fracturing Too Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When stocks are plunging in a typical market environment, people reach for safe haven assets like US Treasuries. But we've seen that phenomenon break down more and more. It broke down in a sustained way during the intense inflation of 2022. And it's been breaking down again, in an acute way, since President Trump's so-called "Liberation Day." On the night of April 8 and early morning of April 9, we saw a major spike in yields. As Trump put it, the bond market was getting the "yips." But what was actually going on? Who was selling? And why? And what have we learned more broadly about technical and economic demand for US government debt? On this episode, we talked to Ira Jersey, the chief US interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, for a crash course in what drives the bond market in both the short and long terms. Read more:The Bond Investors Who Got Trump to Pause His TariffsUS Bonds Rally as Fed’s Hammack Revives Odds of a June Rate Cut Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last few years, retail traders have gotten into options in a major way. Selling puts, buying calls, trading volatility — what used to be the domain of niche experts engaged in practical hedging has exploded into the public sphere. And there was a lot of easy money during a time when every dip was bought, and stocks mostly just went up. But what have we seen in recent weeks, with the extraordinary trading since April 2? On this episode we bring back one of our favorite guests, Benn Eifert of QVR Advisors. He describes what's been going on in the markets, and why a lot of social media "volfluencers" have suddenly gotten very quiet.Mentioned on this episode:Matt Levine on MicroStrategy’s Infinite Money Machine Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you look at most of the official hard data right now, there still isn't much evidence of a sharp downturn. Sure, all the surveys are abysmal, but the actual measures of economic activity are ok. But there is already data showing something severe is happening, and that can be seen in the volume of cargo flowing from China to the US. Of course, this is intentional. This is the whole point of tariffs. But the fear is that this is going to be acute and dramatic to consumer companies, and that it will happen very soon. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, who walks us through the real life and macro-economic impact of what we've already seen. She says that the tariffs hit right at the moment that major retailers are planning for their holiday merchandise, and that before too long we'll start seeing fewer goods and fewer varieties of all kinds of things. We also discuss the inflation dynamics, and how tariffs may not show up in terms of higher CPI, but instead through higher layoffs, compressed profit margins, and falling real wages.Read More: The Jaws That Could Devour Your Profit MarginsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For the most part, Americans haven't felt much pain yet from the tariffs that Donald Trump introduced (and then partially walked back) on April 2. The damage is highly visible in financial markets, but for the moment, shelves remain stocked, inflation measures have remained muted, and there hasn't been a significant wave of layoffs in official data. But according to our guest, real pain is coming. And what's going down is worse than a trade war. On this episode, we speak with the one and only David Woo, now the founder of David Woo Unbound. He also previously served as the Head of Global Rates, Foreign Exchange, and EM Fixed Income and Economics Research at Bank of America. He says that the administration has absolutely nothing to show for its initial months in office on any front. And he says this isn't a game of chicken, where one side can blink and avoid disaster. Instead, we're seeing a "war of attrition" where damage is being done to both the US and Chinese economies as we speak. As he sees it, the China hawks in the administration have been in control, and have the impulse to obliterate the Chinese economy, which makes the situation more than just a so-called trade war. He discusses the political, market, and real economy implications of this dramatic escalation. Read more:Trump U-Turns on Powell, China Follow Dire Economic WarningsA Bad Peace in Ukraine Carries Global Risks Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to measuring economic pain, the cost of a humble breakfast sandwich might not be top of mind. But Bloomberg has an index that tracks the rising cost of a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich, plus a cup of coffee. And this year, it’s reached record highs.On today’s Big Take podcast, we hear from people up and down the BEC supply chain — from a wheat farmer to a coffee roaster to a guy who turned his life-long love of eggs into a career. What does the most important meal of the day tell us about inflation, supply and demand, and the complexities of financial markets? More importantly: how did this sandwich get so expensive?Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the stated goals for the current trade war is to build more industrial capacity in the United States. So far there doesn't seem to be much of it happening. In fact, all of the manufacturing surveys (and all evidence) so far suggests the reverse. But not that long ago there was a concerted effort to build more factories in the United States. Under President Biden there was a whole host of new industrial announcements funded in part via the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. But did we get anything from these bills? Do we have anything to show for it? Why is building more capacity in the United States so difficult? On this episode, we spoke with Hassan Khan, who recently left his position as the director of economic security in the CHIPS Program Office at the Department of Commerce, about what he learned, what he saw, what could be done differently, and what the results are actually were.Read more:With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test BeginsTSMC’s Arizona Chip Production Yields Surpass Taiwan’sUS Chip Grants in Limbo as Lutnick Pushes Bigger Investments Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.