Odd Lots

New York City is about to elect a new mayor, and whoever it is will have to address growing challenges like unaffordability, homelessness, and other basic quality-of-life challenges. Very few of these challenges are distinct to NYC. San Francisco, in particular, has also faced this weird tension, where it's incredibly dynamic and wealthy, and also famous for its obvious symptoms of dysfunction. The city is one year into the new Daniel Lurie administration, and many of the quality-of-life statistics have been improving (which is the case in other cities as well). The city is ground zero for the world's AI industry, which is heavily concentrated in SF, rather than the Bay Area writ large. So we spoke with Lurie about his approach to city management, what he's learned in his first year on the job, his vision for improving zoning, and what, if any, advice he'd offer to the next NYC mayor. Read more:Uber to Take on Waymo in San Francisco With Lucid, Nuro RobotaxisTrump Cancels San Francisco Raids After Benioff, Huang Calls Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem as though you can get great stock picks just by going to ChatGPT and asking it to recommend some investments. And yet financial firms of all sorts — including trading firms — say they're increasingly using AI. But are the tools actually being deployed? And how do these tools differ from traditional machine learning or algorithmic approaches to trading, the likes of which have been used by quant firms for decades now. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Iain Dunning, the head of AI research at Hudson River Trading, a major US market maker. We discuss the firm's attempts to use AI not just for more efficient trading, but also to make short-term predictions about price, which further gives its traders an edge. Dunning walks us through his work, his views on the main constraints facing the space (labor, power, chips, etc.) and how his work is both different and similar to what's happening at the major cutting edge research labs like ChatGPT.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You hear a lot about AI safety, and this idea that sufficiently advanced AI could pose some kind of threat to humans. So people are always talking about and researching "alignment" to ensure that new AI models comport with human needs and values. But what about humans' collective treatment of AI? A small but growing number of researchers talk about AI models potentially being sentient. Perhaps they are "moral patients." Perhaps they feel some kind of equivalent of pleasure and pain -- all of which, if so, raises questions about how we use AI. They argue that one day we'll be talking about AI welfare the way we talk about animal rights, or humane versions of animal husbandry. On this episode we speak with Larissa Schiavo of Eleos AI. Eleos is an an organization that says it's "preparing for AI sentience and welfare." In this conversation we discuss the work being done in the field, why some people think it's an important area for research, whether it's in tension with AI safety, and how our use and development of AI might change in a world where models' welfare were to be seen as an important consideration. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone has an opinion on why housing is so expensive in America -- and to be fair, there are probably a lot of reasons for it. But one simple factor is that homes are expensive to build. Unlike many other physical objects, they haven't gotten cheaper over time. So why is this? And why haven't we found a way to bring down the cost curve by building modular housing in factories or on assembly lines? On this episode, we speak with Brian Potter the author of the new book The Origins of Efficiency. Potter also worked at a modular homes startup that failed, and is also the author of the excellent Construction Physics newsletter. So we talk about what he's learned about housing, as well as broader questions about how operational efficiency is achieved over time across a range of industries. Read more:Austin, Salt Lake City Top Global List of Most Affordable CitiesAffordable Housing Left Vulnerable After Trump Fires Building Inspectors Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you go out to eat at a restaurant, whether it's a fast food chain or a Michelin-starred bistro, there's a good chance the ingredients on your plate came from the same source. Sysco is the dominant foodservice distributor in the US, using its massive logistics network to quietly supply the food that goes into meals in thousands of restaurants across the US. Sysco's scale and product standardization have helped define what American dining tastes like -- sometimes literally. But critics say its power has gone too far, leaving chefs and diners with fewer choices and blander outcomes. In this episode, we talk with Austin Frerick, author of Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry, about how Sysco became the middleman shaping America's menus.   Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few years ago, governments and corporations were brimming with optimism about the prospect of getting to net-zero in the efforts against climate change. Today, you hear a lot less about that. And while there's renewables getting added to the mix all the time, one energy source that's really booming is natural gas. And coal is booming too. So what happened? And is there any prospect of the world getting back on track? On this episode, we speak with acclaimed energy historian Daniel Yergin, current Vice Chairman of S&P Global. He's also, of course, the author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book The Prize, as well as, more recently, The New Map. We talk about all of the factors that changed the energy picture in recent years and the energy priorities of nations right now. Read more:Russia’s Crude Shipments Climb Close to a Post-Invasion HighTrump to Buy 1 Million Barrels to Help Refill Oil Reserve Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some economists expected that the dollar would strengthen when the tariffs were imposed. Instead, the opposite happened. The dollar fell sharply and it's been a poor performer all year. Concurrently, it's been a great year for a lot of dollar-denominated assets, like stocks. Even US Treasuries have rallied this year. So what's going on? On this episode, we speak with recurring Odd Lots guest Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements. Per his work, the world didn't abandon the US dollar, but it did start hedging exposure to it. We discuss this phenomenon, as well as other risks on the macro landscape.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The 2010s saw economic weakness across Europe's periphery. Countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, and so forth were the sites of so much stress. In the 2020s, however, it's reversed. The periphery is holding up well, but the industrial core is facing stress. Germany, in particular, the old powerhouse of the continent, has been slammed by the surge in electricity costs and competition with China. Other Northern states have felt similar pain. So what is the future for Europe? Can the EU project itself continue to evolve and integrate? On this episode, we speak with Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland and a member of the ECB's Governing Council. We discuss the near and medium-term challenges facing the EU and the prospects for finding a robust growth path in the future. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gold has been surging. Risky assets (with a few minor hiccups) have also been surging. And yet, central bankers (most notably the Fed) are in rate cutting mode. Why is this? And what kind of risks are being conjured up? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, as well as the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Rajan famously was one of the first to raise alarms prior to the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. We discuss why financial markets are doing what they're doing and whether central bankers are sufficiently attuned to the growing risks. Read more:Gold Holds Drop as Traders Focus on US-China Trade, Credit WoesAI Stocks Are in a Bubble, Most Investors Say in BofA Survey Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Make sense of the world with one essential conversation, every week. Mishal Husain, one of Britain's best interviewers, brings her signature blend of curiosity and tenacity to weekly conversations with world leaders, business titans, and cultural icons, revealing who they really are and how they see the world changing around them.Follow the podcast wherever you listen, so you don't miss an episode.https://link.podtrac.com/iu94w2n4See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this year, we traveled along with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on a trip to Alaska. You may remember the episodes we did with Mary at the time, as well as business and other leaders in the state. But we also had the chance to sit in with Mary while she talked with her contacts on the ground. On this special episode, you'll hear some of those discussions and get a sense of exactly what happens when a regional Fed president goes out and learns from the community. You'll hear from officials at the Port of Anchorage dealing with the new trade landscape, a company that makes steel tubing for the oil industry coming to grips with tariffs, and from managers involved at the airport, to get a sense of how the Alaskan economy works and the distinct pressures they're facing right now.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's nothing new for the US government to use public money to support private American companies. The Biden administration, via CHIPS and the Inflation Reduction Act, was aggressive about using loans and grants to accelerate US industry. But the Trump administration has been engaged in something more novel: taking direct stakes in US companies like Intel and MP. But what is the legal basis for such action? And what are the advantages and disadvantages of direct equity stakes? On this episode, we speak with Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at the Georgetown Institute of International Economic Law. We discuss the structure of these new arrangements, and the advantages and disadvantages for the government to be a minority shareholder in publicly-traded companies. Read more:Intel Debuts New Technology in Make-or-Break Moment for CEO’s Turnaround BidUS Rare Earths Stocks Jump on Bets Government Will Keep Buying Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Argentina is getting bailed out again, with $40 billion of help from the Trump administration. Of course, this is a recurring phenomenon for Argentina, and this time it's happening under the free market-oriented Javier Milei, who has slashed spending to bring down inflation. So why is it in trouble again? And why is this such a recurring feature of the Argentine economy? In this episode, we speak with Greg Makoff, the author of Default: The Landmark Court Battle over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring. In this conversation, Greg explains the domestic political context for why Argentina hasn't been able to establish a sustainable economic footing. We discuss the legacy of Peronism, Milei's efforts to sharply change course, and the challenge of seeing any economic reform project through to completion, given the pain required get into fiscal balance. Read more:Argentine Bonds Jump on News US Lining Up $40 Billion in AidArgentina Says US Treasury Will Continue to Support Peso Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost everyone is talking about us possibly being in a bubble. Regardless of how AI investment ultimately pan out, there is an incredible amount of retail speculative mania in the air. So, how does this environment compare to past periods of exuberance? On this episode, we speak with Andrew Ross Sorkin, the editor of Dealbook, the co-host of CNBC's Squawk Box, and the author of the new book 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History--and How It Shattered a Nation. Sorkin, who previously wrote Too Big to Fail (chronicling the Great Financial Crisis of 2008), went into the archives to discover just how in thrall the American public was to the market on the eve of the great crash. We discuss lessons from the time, similarities, and differences. Read more:Companies Overpaying for AI Add to Bubble Risks, Survey ShowsWhy Circular AI Deals Among OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD Are Raising Eyebrows Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days, there's a non-stop drumbeat of concern that China and its dominant companies will eat America's economic lunch, so to speak. Of course, this isn't the first time in our history that there were worries about a rising Asian industrial power. In the 1980s and early 1990s, there was a lot of concern about the rise of corporate Japan. And that fear was seen all over movies and pop culture, from Die Hard to the Michael Crichton novel Rising Sun. This time there is one big difference: Chinese dominance doesn't permeate our pop culture in the same way. And furthermore, the US has long had military bases in Japan, so that dimension was quite different, too. To understand this period further, we talk to John Ganz, who writes the Unpopular Front newsletter, and is the author of the recent book, When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, and How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990s. We discuss how this fear came about and disappeared, but also how it still influences American politics to this day.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher? Why does it seem virtually unfathomable that the Fed will return to ZIRP anytime soon? Why do investors expect this rate cut cycle to be so shallow? The answer, theoretically, is that the neutral rate of interest has gone up. But what is the neutral rate of interest, and why has it moved? On this episode, we speak with Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics and Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They, along with Bloomberg's Stephanie Flanders, are the editors of a new book titled The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present, and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest, in which they attempt to directly identify what the neutral rate of interest actually is. We discuss the big changes over the last several years, including deglobalization, demographics, and datacenters, that are pushing this number higher.Listen to our sister show Trumponomics: Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is RisingRead more:Trump’s Contradiction: Demanding Steep Rate Cuts for a ‘Booming’ EconomyFed Set to Drive Global Rate Cuts as Europe Shifts to Pause Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Money has been flowing into the AI space, with billions pouring into GPU clusters, data centers, gas turbines, and the infrastructure needed to train and deploy bigger and bigger models. So what comes next? On this episode, we speak with James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research. We talk to him about his latest field trip to one of OpenAI's new massive Stargate data centers in Abilene, Texas. We also discuss the increasingly complicated financing arrangements that are funding some of these mega projects and the energy needed to power them. Finally, we ask the question which everyone seems to be asking right now: is AI in a bubble? Read more:OpenAI Valuation Reaches $500 Billion, Topping Musk’s SpaceXFOMO Builds as Alibaba Extends $250 Billion AI-Fueled Comeback Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're used to talking about the Federal Reserve changing "benchmark interest rates." But the mechanics of how the central bank actually tightens or loosens policy are a lot more nuanced. For years now, the Fed's been doing this through the federal funds market — where US banks lend and borrow their excess reserves. But that could be changing. Last week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the fed funds target is outdated, and the central bank should be looking at alternatives. So what would those alternatives actually look like, and why do the intricacies of these short-term funding markets actually matter? We speak with Joe Abate, head of macrostrategy, at SMBC Nikko about this and the broader liquidity picture. Read More: Logan Ushers in New Era of Debate on Fed’s Key Policy Tool  Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CME Group is one of the oldest exchanges around, tracing it's history all the way back to the late 1800s, when it specialized in agricultural commodities. It's best known for things like futures and interest rate swaps that tend to be favored by professional traders. But as retail trading becomes big business, the CME is expanding its footprint in the space, including a recently-announced partnership with sports-betting platform FanDuel. So how does a marketplace that built its reputation on professional hedging and risk management now try to capture the attention of everyday investors? In this episode we speak with Terry Duffy, CME Group chairman and CEO, about the exchange’s push into retail, new competition in the Treasury futures space, and much more.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For over 20 years, people have been talking about prediction markets or event markets are the next big thing. But mostly, with some niche exceptions, they haven't taken off, in part due to regulatory constraints. But now they seem to be booming, and the regulatory environment has gotten much more friendly. On this live episode recorded in Chicago, we speak with Tarek Mansour, the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, one of the prediction market platforms that's booming. One reason it's doing so well is because it's gone big into sports, which of course gets into its own regulatory thicket. In this conversation, we talk about the future of these markets, the prospect for markets other than sports and presidential elections, and Kalshi's overall plan to let its users to eventually trade everything.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don Wilson has built a career diving into some of trading’s thorniest problems, including figuring out ways to trade new and niche markets. Now, the founder and CEO of DRW has his sights set on the GPUs powering AI, which he thinks could end up being a bigger market than crude oil. In this episode, which was recorded live onstage at our show in Chicago, we talk about how such a market would work, including ways to ‘standardize’ the vast array of different types of semiconductors, and how this could change the capital stack of the industry. We also talk the evolution of trading over Don’s storied career and why he thinks most assets (and maybe even all of them) will be tokenized within the next five years. Read more:ASM International Cuts Outlook After Chip Demand DisappointsTaiwan Pauses South African Chip Export Curbs After Two Days Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kindbody, one of the largest fertility companies in the US, sought to disrupt egg freezing and IVF by combining spa vibes with Silicon Valley efficiency. The startup raised millions, opened dozens of clinics, and became a billion-dollar unicorn. But its ambition came with consequences. In IVF Disrupted: The Kindbody Story, reporter Jackie Davalos takes listeners beyond Kindbody’s millennial-friendly waiting rooms and into the clinics themselves, showing the sometimes-heartbreaking consequences of bringing the “move fast and break things” mentality to the business of creating life.Visit Bloomberg.com/ivfdistrupted to learn more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We know that the top-tier AI labs are spending unbelievable amounts of money on talent. But what are these researchers actually working on? And how do we know that they're making progress? And furthermore, how can we even measure that progress? On this episode, we speak with Jack Morris, an AI researcher and Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, who is also a part-time researcher at Meta. We talk about what he does, and why breakthroughs seem to be lumpy and unpredictable. We also talk about the battle between open- and closed-source approaches, US vs. Chinese labs, and how an individual talent thinks about where they want to spend their time, balancing the desire for research and prestige with a big fat paycheck.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are two huge winning trades that people are looking at day after day. Gold keeps going up and US tech stocks keep going up. But what is driving this intense flow? How long can these consensus trades last? On this episode, we speak with Ozan Tarman, the Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank. As part of his role at the bank, Ozan talks non-stop with hedge funders, sovereign wealth fund managers, and, of course, the analysts at his own bank. This means he has an excellent perspective on why these trades are so popular now. He explains why there is a decline in confidence about the US sovereign (hence the rise in gold) around the world, but also an incredible fixation on the success of the big US tech companies (hence their constant bid). We also talk about other popular consensus trades, from steepeners to Chinese equities to Liz Truss moments all around the world.c Read more:China Courts Foreign Gold Reserves to Boost Global CloutNvidia’s OpenAI Deal Fuels ‘Circular’ Financing Concerns Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In recent years, retail trading of stocks has absolutely exploded. This is happening despite the fact that investors are subject to a constant stream of propaganda that individuals can't beat the market, and that the proper way to invest is through low-cost index funds that you don't pay regular attention to. More than anyone else, one man has been banging the drum (literally) for years that individuals can beat the market and are smart enough to select individual securities. That, of course, is Jim Cramer, the host of the popular TV show Mad Money on CNBC. He is also the author of the new book, How to Make Money in Any Market. We discuss his philosophy of investing, his career, his time as a young college-age radical, the time he lead a wildcat strike and got fired, his thoughts on memestock mania, and much more. Read more:US Stocks Advance to Records to Close Out Risk-On FOMC WeekIntel Soars After Nvidia Makes $5 Billion Investment Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When President Trump announced the tariffs on Liberation Day, it seemed to truly mark the end of the old world trading system. But of course it had been dying for a long time. The first Trump administration erected aggressive trading barriers against China. Then Biden expanded them further. And there were signs of its demise even under Obama. So what was the global trading system? What will come after it? What are the benefits and costs to changes? On this episode, we speak with Michael Froman, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations, and the former Trade Representative during Obama's second term. We discuss how the system began to collapse, and what he sees as the emergence of a new "polyamorous" global trading system, where friends and allies and partners move in a more liquid manner between different poles and blocs. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox now delivered every weekday plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is a widespread view that China is a superpower of rising status, and that a new global order is emerging with the country as an important pole in it. You see this with the growing BRICS organization. You also see this with the leaders who went to Beijing recently for the country's military parade. And of course, this comes at a time when the US is erecting trade barriers with everyone, including many of our closest friends and allies. So how does China see its role in this world? Will it play a role that's similar to what the US has played? Will it look very different? Does China want to reinvigorate legacy multi-lateral organizations like the UN? On this episode, we speak with Henry Huiyao Wang, the Founder and President of the Center for China and Globalization. Having been founded in 2008, the CCG is now China's largest independent think tank, with offices in multiple cities. We discuss China's perspective on the US, its potential role in establishing a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, its perspective on Israel and Gaza, and the type of role it could play in a new form of globalization. Read more:China’s Defense Minister Warns on Taiwan, Condemns ‘Bullying’Why Is China Stockpiling So Much Oil? Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you look at prospectuses and earnings documents for almost any company, you're going to see a Delaware address. For more than a century, the state has been the place to go to if you're setting up a business. And in fact, Delaware has catered to these corporate clients, setting up an efficient chancery court to settle corporate disputes and producing a huge backlog of case law to act as reliable and efficient precedent. But suddenly, some companies are choosing to leave the state. Most prominent among them is Elon Musk's Tesla, which opted to re-incorporate in Texas after a Delaware judge invalidated his $56 billion pay package. States like Nevada and Texas are now also actively courting companies by enticing them with management-friendly laws. In this episode, we speak with Ann Lipton, University of Colorado law professor and Lawrence W. Demuth Chair, to find out what's at stake in the fight for incorporations and if there's a risk for a race to the bottom in terms of shareholder accountability. Read more:Why Tesla’s Chinese Rival BYD Faces a Raft of TroublesUS Panel Probes Huawei Affiliate’s Presence on Nvidia Campus Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost everything we buy nowadays has been in a box at some point. Goods are shipped in boxes. Products ordered online arrive at our doorstep in boxes. Boxes are so ubiquitous that some strategists use them as an unconventional macroeconomic indicator to gauge retail spending. Now, shipments of boxes are falling dramatically. At the same time, prices for boxes have actually been going up. So, what's going on? And what does it suggest about the health of the US consumer and the broader economy? In this episode, we speak with Ryan Fox, containers and packaging analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. We talk about the box industry overall, how companies choose their packaging, and what makes the perfect box. Read more:Lula, Xi Decry Tariffs and Urge BRICS Unity Amid Trump ThreatsWhat Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone wants to buy the hedge that will save their portfolio in a time of collapse. But this is easier said than done. You need to understand the specific risks facing your portfolio. You also need to get the disaster state right. Plus, insurance of any sort is costly. This means tail risk hedging is far from a trivial exercise. On this episode, we talk to someone who's been working on the problem for a long time. Vineer Bhansali is the CIO and founder of LongTail Alpha, which works to develop hedging implementations to prevent against left tail outcomes. Bhansali, who started off as an academic physicist before going to Wall Street, talks to us about options theory, the role of quantitative techniques, the time he won big in Liar's Poker, and why he perceives the loss of Fed independence as the biggest risk right now. Read more:Wall Street Rallies as Fed Gets All-Clear to Cut: Markets WrapGold Surpasses Inflation-Adjusted Record High Set in 1980 Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this live episode, recorded at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Rob Kaplan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and the current vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. We discuss his views on the rate path, and why he does not see the Fed cutting by 50 bps at the next meeting. We also discuss the general macroeconomic environment, the US vs. China AI race, and why he sees globalization on the march — except it's happening without the US.Odd Lots is coming to Chicago for a live episode! Get your tickets hereOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The recent parade in Beijing once again raised questions about the relative strengths of the US and Chinese militaries. Meanwhile, because of recent global conflicts (including the clash between Indian and Pakistan earlier this year), we've gotten fresh data on how certain hardware actually holds up on the battlefield or in the skies. Separately, China is known to be working on a new 6th generation fighter for which some video has been shown. So who is ahead in terms of both cutting edge technology and also defense production at scale? And what does it even mean to have air superiority -- or even air "supremacy" when we're talking about modern warfare? On this episode, we speak with Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center about the state of the two air forces. More: Here’s the Military Hardware China Showed Off at Xi’s ParadeOdd Lots is coming to Chicago for a live episode! Get your tickets hereSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One day it's so over. The next day we're so back. This is what it feels like gauging the AI boom right now. Everyone's looking for signs of some kind of slowdown and that investments aren't going pan out, but mostly, the dollar signs just keep piling up. And the AI winners like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Anthropic just keep seeing their market valuations rise. In the meantime, other AI players are seeing weird outcomes. Some promising startups aren't being sold, but rather their top talent is walking out the door, leaving other workers potentially in the lurch, while creating risk for venture capital bagholders. On this episode we speak with Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at the firm Lux Capital, which invests in a range of startups, many of which are in the AI space. He talks about the challenge of aligning incentives, what's overrated, what's underrated, why he thinks Nvidia may have run its course, and the threats to Silicon Valley's "social contract.”Odd Lots is coming to Chicago! Tickets on sale now. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For this week’s episode of Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business, Joe Wiesenthal joins Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to fact check President Trump’s recent claim that the “stock market needs the tariffs, they want the tariffs." Is it actually possible to tell how markets feel about tariffs? Do the markets even know themselves? The trio dives deep. Also on this episode, journalist and cultural commentator Sam Sanders of the Sam Sanders Show unpacks the lessons Hollywood is learning from its latest unexpected success: Netflix's mega-viral KPop Demon Hunters. And, finally, Stacey explain why—love them or hate them—tariffs are making your pumpkin spice latte (not to mention any pumpkin spice cat litter you happen to buy this fall) more expensive. Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to Everybody’s Business on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time of some big transitions in the workforce — whether we're talking immigration changes, aging demographics, or AI. As such, just understanding the monthly data has never been more difficult. And because it's so difficult, it's also challenging to get a read-through from data to policy. On this episode we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. In addition to talking about the state of the labor market, we also discuss the goings-on in bond markets, and why the stress is particularly acute in Europe. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Buy Now Pay Later is everywhere nowadays. Companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have brought installment payments into everyday life, while big banks and tech firms also now racing into the space. With the market growing so rapidly, there are obvious concerns over whether BNPL is adding a new layer of 'hidden leverage' to the economy, giving online shoppers an alternative to more traditional financing like credit cards and bank loans. Data about BNPL usage is notoriously limited, and BNPL firms have so far resisted sharing information. In this episode, we speak with Julie Margetta Morgan, formerly at the CFPB and now president of The Century Foundation, about what's driving the BNPL market, how BNPL companies make money, and the macroeconomic impacts of the BNPL boom. Read more:Klarna, Backers Seek $1.27 Billion in IPO After Tariff PauseDollar Tree Boosts Outlook as Consumers Keep Hunting for Deals Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are there for America? Are there even lessons for America? Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover History Lab, has probably been one of the foremost commentators and observers on China's rise, having taken seriously their efforts to push the technological frontiers for years now. Now, he's out with a new book BREAKNECK: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. On this episode, we talk about what he's seen in the country, whether China is legitimately on the road to socialism, and how perceptions of the country have changed since he started doing his research. Read more:Samsung, SK Hynix Lose US Waivers on Chip Gear for China PlantsChina Warns Against Excess Competition in Booming AI Race Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gamblers on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are already trying to cash in on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement — betting on everything from their wedding timeline to her next single.On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder sits down with Bloomberg personal finance reporter Francesca Maglione and wealth reporter Annie Massa to dig into what a high-profile engagement can teach us about the rapidly growing predictions industry, the challenges with regulating it and who’s investing in its future. Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central banks have to contain it once it gets going. At this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, UC Berkeley professor Emi Nakamura presented a new paper — co-authored with her Berkeley colleagues Jón Steinsson and Venance Riblier — titled Beyond the Taylor Rule. The paper sought to look at the wide range of choices that global central banks made in dealing with inflation to see what if anything could be learned about the Taylor Rule, a load-bearing idea in modern economics that describes what optimal monetary policy looks like when successfully balancing the Federal Reserve's objectives. Their paper discovers that in any bout of inflation, a central bank that has a greater history of fighting inflation also has the ability to deviate further from strict Taylor Rule guidelines, without achieving worse inflation outcomes. In an interview recorded in Jackson Hole, we speak with Professor Nakamura about her work and its implications for central bankers going forward. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days, everyone is talking about high interest rates across the rich, developed world, while warning of eventual fiscal disaster. But we may have gotten an early glimpse of this anxiety in October 2022, when then-UK Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled her mini-budget that spooked the gilt market. Well today, rates at the long end of the British yield curve are even higher. So what's going on? Why all this angst now about UK fiscal sustainability and the economy itself? In this episode, we speak with Liz Truss about what she learned during her brief time as the PM. She talks about the political reality of fiscal consolidation, and how difficult it is on both the tax and spending side. And we also discuss what her economic vision was really all about, had she not been forced from the position so quickly. In addition, we talk about the general state of politics, the media, and free speech in the UK. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Criticism and threats to Federal Reserve independence have been building for some time in this administration. But it was taken to a new height on August 25, when Trump posted that he intended to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee. According to our guest, Columbia Law Professor Lev Menand, this is a big deal that has created an immediate crisis. The Trump administration's argument is that it's firing Lisa Cook "for cause" due to allegations (and these are just allegations at this point) that she committed mortgage fraud. As Lev argues, these allegations alone can't justify the removal of someone in this position. We talk through the legal implications, the immediate path ahead, and what may ultimately be Trump's real aim when it comes to pressuring the Fed. Read more:Trump Moves to Fire Fed’s Cook, Setting Up Historic Fight Powell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor Markets Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, cutting edge ideas in monetary policy. But there was certainly a different feel this year because of the relentless attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell coming from President Trump. The whole premise of central bank independence is becoming a live question again. And without central bank independence, almost all of the more academic discussions feel like a waste of time. That makes for a surreal environment. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who now serves as President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He's the author of a recent Foreign Affairs article titled, "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World." We talk about the shifting tectonic plates occurring domestically and internationally, what he sees as the folly of Trump's approach to trade and international relations, and how that intersects with the discourse among Central Bankers. Read more:What’s at Stake in the Fight Over Fed IndependenceFormer ECB Chief Says ‘Illusion’ of EU as a Global Power Dashed Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate cuts are needed. Sometimes it's clear that rate hikes are needed. Other times everything is going great, and central bankers don't have much to worry about. Right now though, things are not straightforward. There are signs of labor market softening. But also there are reasons to be concerned that inflation pressure is building yet again. In times like this, the playbook is less obvious. On this episode, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Barkin walks us through how he's thinking about the economy right now. More: Fed’s Jackson Hole Points to a Hard Road Ahead for Powell Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is still more concerned about the inflation side of the Fed's mandate than he is about the employment side. This is noteworthy because in general markets are expecting rate cuts to come soon, and also Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, put more weight on risks to the labor market. In this episode recorded at the conference, Goolsbee explains why he has some concerns about whether the inflation embers have been fully stamped out (he's particularly concerned by what he's seeing in the services realm), and why he has relatively more confidence that the labor market is in good shape. Read more:Powell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor MarketsWall Street Got the Rally Signals From Powell It Was Hoping For Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're still at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where we just heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell's big speech. The speech -- which opened the door to a September rate cut -- proved to be a dovish surprise to the market and stocks are now soaring because of it. But why did Powell decide to focus on what he sees as "downside" risks to the labor market as opposed to "upside" risks to inflation? On this episode, we speak to Bloomberg TV's Michael McKee, who's been to dozens of Jackson Hole meetings since the late 1990s. We talk with him about the speech, how Jackson Hole has changed over time, and who's in the running to replace Powell next year. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's Jackson Hole time again, when the most prominent minds in monetary policy meet in an idyllic Wyoming setting for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual symposium on monetary policy. For markets, the main event tends to be the speech from the Fed Chairman. But beyond that, there's always a theme that central bankers and academics are tasked to discuss. So to raise the curtain for this year's event, we spoke with none other than Jeffrey Schmid, the president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed. We talked about the official theme of this year's conference, the growing political pressure on the Fed itself, and how he thinks about monetary policy at a time when markets are at record highs, the unemployment rate is low, and inflation continues to come in above target. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You always hear about startup exits. Big acquisitions. Big IPOs. But of course this isn’t the fate for most new ventures. Many of them die outright, without any kind of “exit” at all for shareholders. So how do you wind down a company, and sell off the scraps? How do you actually pull the plug? David Johnson of Resolution Financial Advisors specializes in exactly that. Because the formal bankruptcy process is very expensive, many companies look for some way to salvage value by doing an asset fire sale. David tells us how the process works, and also goes through a bunch of fun examples of odd transactions, such as the time he had to find a buyer for some actual human skulls that were in the office of a dying startup. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump and others have talked about the idea of the US having a Sovereign Wealth Fund, a la the UAE or Singapore. It feels like a longshot, but as it turns out, there are actually several Sovereign Wealth Funds in the United States, one of which is the Alaska Permanent Fund. The fund was established in the 1970s to manage the state’s booming oil fortune, and ensure that the boom benefitted the residents of the state for years into the future. Today the fund manages over $80 billion, contributing a substantial portion each year to Alaska’s state budget, including an annual check paid directly to almost all residents of the state. On this episode, we speak with the fund’s CEO Deven Mitchell and CIO Marcus Frampton about how the fund operates, its relationship with the government of Alaska, and how it’s investing its money in order to fulfill its purpose long into the future. We also discuss what lessons from the APF could apply to any similar project done at a national level. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots(Corrects Alaska Permanent Fund as the only Sovereign Wealth Fund in the US in headline and description)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You can kind of understand why it's so hard to build housing in New York City. There isn't much available land. It's already pretty built up. And then, add in the fact that so many people want to live in New York, and you can understand why it's so expensive. But what's the deal with Alaska? There seems to be plenty of land. And population has actually been in a a general state of decline. And yet, housing remains strained, with many of the same affordability problems seen elsewhere in the country. So what are the specific challenging dynamics to be overcome? On this episode, we speak with Jimmy Ord, Daniel Delfino, and Stacy Barnes of the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation to understand the challenges they face, and the work they do to ease the strain. We get into both the specific logistical, political, and financial tools available to reduce pressure. Read more:NYC Approves Midtown Rezoning to Allow 9,500 New Housing Units More Estate Agents Are Reporting Falling House Prices, RICS Says Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, that it's crazy to think about cutting rates. You could also argue that much of the economy is stalling, that the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically, and that with housing in the tank, we need lower rates. Then on top of this situation, layer in the fact that we have this weird bifurcated economy, with the AI sector growing like gangbusters. And then add onto that the attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve coming from the Trump administration. And furthermore, trade policy is still a moving target. To make sense of this complicated time — and to look ahead to next week's Jackson Hole conference — we speak with Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.