Odd Lots

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack.Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction MarketsPrediction Markets Are a Thing NowOnly Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Housing affordability remains one of the single greatest sources of economic stress. Even if inflation measures were to come down, the simple cost of shelter is a huge burden on a wide swathe of the population. Hardly anyone disagrees with the idea of increasing supply, but this is easier said than done. There isn't a lot of spare construction capacity and the political fights over liberalizing zoning are tedious and slow. On this episode, we speak with Kevin Erdmann, a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, who proposes a simple idea. He argues that after the Great Financial Crisis, regulators over-tightened lending standards, and in so doing, took out the entire "starter home" segment of the new housing market. He says that if Fannie and Freddie were to liberalize their lending standards, homebuilders would be incentivized to build more homes that cater to people with lower incomes and lower FICO scores, essentially re-creating a whole slice of the new home market that's disappeared over the last 15 years. Read More:US Homebuilders Face a Supply Chain Snarl From Tariff BattlesUS Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.88%, Lowest Level This Year Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets have been selling off, with shares of tech companies like Nvidia down almost 20% so far this year. But even before the recent selloff, DeepSeek rattled the AI market and sparked questions over how US platforms will compete and actually monetize their technology. Despite all these hurdles, some investors remain tech optimists. Cathie Wood, the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of ARK Investment Management, is one of the most prominent, with ARK's Innovation Fund heavily invested in companies like Tesla, Coinbase and Roku. In this conversation, recorded live on stage at Bloomberg Invest, we discuss Cathie's view of potential opportunities in the space, and why she's expecting the Trump administration to create a Reagan Era-esque "golden age" for investors.Read More: Cathie Wood Sees Trump Era as ‘Golden Age’ for Wall StreetCathie Wood May Have Lost $14 Billion. But She’s InterestingOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC on March 12! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You’ve heard about Chinese EVs. You’ve heard about Chinese batteries and solar panels. And recently you learned that China is near the cutting edge of AI research. Here’s another category: biotech. In 2019, the Chinese share of molecules licensed to Big Pharma companies was 0%. In 2024, it’s now 31%. On this episode we speak with Tim Opler, a biotech industry investment banker at Stifel. He explains how this industry has taken off in such a short period of time. Among the factors he cites: a generation of Chinese research scientists working in the US who hit a ceiling in terms of promotion and thus went back home to start companies. It’s also far cheaper to run clinical trials in China, due to the structure of the healthcare system. We also talk about the broad history of the pharmaceutical industry, how it’s evolved, and what impact, if any, AI will have on drug discovery.Read More:Former J&J Scientist Bets on China BiotechChinese Health Stocks Surge on DeepSeek Integration PotentialOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the first moves made by the Trump administration was to change the nature of grants made by the National Institutes of Health. Under the new policy, there's a 15% cap on "indirect costs" associated with a given grant. This is money that essentially pays for institutional overhead, not directly related to the new costs of the specific project itself. So how do NIH grants actually work? What are the direct and indirect costs? What is the effect that's already playing out? On this episode, we speak to Carole LaBonne, a biologist and researcher at Northwestern University, on what she's already seeing from the changes.Read more:Trump’s Science Agency Pick Says He Won’t Cut More PersonnelThe US Is Withdrawing From Global Health at a Dangerous TimeOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week was a busy one and some of the most interesting things that happened came out of Europe, where policymakers announced up to €800 billion of additional defense spending and an easing of Germany's stringent debt rules. All of this comes as Europe responds to tariff threats from the Trump administration, as well as worries that the Trans-Atlantic security alliance may be over. So how significant could these changes be? And what do they mean for things like the euro, the dollar, and the wider financial system? And what are the vibes in Germany like right now? On this episode, we speak with George Saravelos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, about this huge moment.Read more:EU Backs German Push to Look at Easing Fiscal Rules for DefenseTrump Hails Tariffs as US Economy Barrels Into Trade Wars Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The 1970s were a pretty eventful time in markets. There was high inflation, the end of the gold standard, and a stock market crash. There was also a bunch of ideas coming out of the University of Chicago that would go on to be famous and highly influential for investors. Perhaps the most prominent is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, posited by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama, which says that markets are right and it's useless for investors to try to outguess them. Fama later teamed up with David Booth, the founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, and has been a longtime collaborator with the firm, which now has $777 billion under management. Today, they're releasing a documentary directed by Errol Morris and called "Tune Out the Noise," which chronicles this important time. We speak to both of these investment legends about the development of their theories, how they put them into practice, subsequent criticism, and what comes next. Read more:Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market ReturnsUpstarts Challenge a Foundation of Modern InvestingCliff Asness Says Markets Are Less Efficient — And Social Media May Be to Blame Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost whichever way you measure it, the US has a lot of debt. And, with the Trump administration recently proposing a budget that would see US debt levels swell even further, it doesn't look like this issue is going away any time soon. In this episode, we speak with Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and the author of the new book, How Countries Go Broke. We talk about how he thinks about debt cycles, the catalyst for when high levels of debt become an immediate problem, what a debt crisis actually looks like, and what the US needs to do to avoid a "heart attack" debt crisis within the next three years. We also speak about what investors should do in these scenarios, including Ray's thoughts on things like Bitcoin and gold. And, of course, we also speak about his role in helping create the Chicken McNugget.Read more:The Stories We Tell Ourselves About Bonds‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s AttentionOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A week from today we will get the February jobs report and there are growing concerns that the US labor market is slowing. Already, the number of sectors adding jobs in this economy is on the decline. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to struggle. Add in the Department of Government Efficiency and worsening fiscal conditions in the state and local sector, and the government may prove to be a drag on employment. To talk about this and other macro developments, including possible tariffs, we brought back Jon Turek, founder and CEO of JST Advisors, to break it all down on this episode. Read more: US Initial Jobless Claims Hit Highest of 2025 Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first month of the Trump administration has been noisy and novel by basically any measure. But perhaps the biggest shockwaves have been in the realm of geopolitics. Europeans were caught off guard by a recent speech given by Vice President JD Vance in Munich, calling into doubt the future of the Trans-Atlantic partnership. Meanwhile, when it comes to tariffs, the Trump administration has actually been tougher on Mexico and Canada than it has been on China. Then add into all of this the anxiety over AI domination, as a result of the hype around DeepSeek. So how should we understand these novel risks? And how should investors incorporate them into their thinking? On this episode we speak with Jared Cohen and George Lee, the co-heads of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute. They discuss the future of Europe, what they're expecting from the Trump administration, the rise of the Gulf powers, AI, undersea cables, and the opportunities in identifying what they call "geopolitical swing states" like Japan and India.Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord” has suddenly become a hot topic on Wall Street, with some investors and analysts starting to take the idea more seriously, holding meetings with clients and publishing research notes about the rumored plan. A riff on the 1985 Plaza Accord — named for the hotel where it was devised — the idea is that the Trump administration could achieve its economic aims through a reordering of the financial system that would include a conscious effort to devalue the dollar. The basic components of the plan were laid out by Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and drew on the work of Zoltan Pozsar. So how exactly could this all work? And what problems are the Trump administration trying to solve exactly? On this episode, we speak with Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, who has been briefing his clients about the possibilities. Read more:Three Names You Need to Know to Understand the Future of the International Monetary Order‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s AttentionOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People love listening to stories about making it big, and there are no shortage of success stories in the world of global business. There's TSMC, which has grown to become the most important producer of semiconductors. There's Hermès, which has been a power player in luxury consumer goods for over a hundred years now. Or how about Starbucks, Berkshire Hathaway, Renaissance Technologies, or Ikea? The list goes on and on. But what actually makes a company great? And why do some businesses succeed where others fail? The Acquired podcast has become a must-listen for their study of some of the most interesting companies in the world. In this episode, we speak with Acquired co-hosts Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal, about what makes a business truly great.Read More: The Five Habits of Highly Successful CompaniesCompanies to Watch in 2025Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hedge funds are notorious for making big and sometimes risky trades. Banks, meanwhile, are supposed to be a lot more boring by comparison — for obvious reasons. But in recent years, we've seen banks like Silicon Valley Bank make some pretty bad bets themselves. Elham Saeidinezhad, an assistant economics professor at Barnard College, Columbia University, argues that banks have been turning into giant "synthetic hedge funds" by blending traditional lending activities with advanced financial strategies. The big question, of course, is whether they should be doing this at all, given that banks typically operate with a lot more regulatory constraint and might not be as nimble when it comes to entering or exiting positions. Read more:SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During PandemicSVB Failure Sparks Blame Game Over Trump-Era Regulatory RuleThe Thorny Question of Why We Treat Banks Differently At All? Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US is a dominant force in a number of important industries, but it's been lagging behind in one crucial area: shipbuilding. Today, there are about 80 US-flagged ships involved in global trade, compared to more than 5,500 China-flagged vessels. The worry is that the US has been falling behind in this important component of international commerce, and that the country's entire economy could be at risk of being choked off. The SHIPS for America Act is a rare bipartisan proposal that aims to address these concerns by getting America to build commercial vessels again. But how exactly do you go about reviving an industry that's been all but moribund for decades? We speak to Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, and Senator Todd Young, a Republican from Indiana, co-sponsors of the bill, about their plan.Read More:US Lawmakers Seek to Bolster Shipbuilding at HomeThe Shipping Industry Is Getting a Slew of New Vessels—Right as Demand CoolsOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a long time, the world of derivatives trading was a niche thing, largely occupied by professional investors who used them for hedging purposes. During the pandemic and the Robinhood boom, the retail masses started discovering them, and activity exploded. Since then, the use of options, swaps and other levered positions has grown among both individual traders and the big professionals on Wall Street. There are countless influencers on social media promising "guaranteed" returns from various options selling strategies. New ETFs have been launched that embed derivatives inside them. And institutions which might historically have employed simple, sleepy investments, are now making them part of their core mix. So how did this happen, and what effect is it having on the market? On this episode, we speak with Benn Eifert, partner at QVR Advisors, about the evolution of this world, why you should not get your trading advice from Instagram, and how this trend has reshaped the entire market. Read more: World’s Largest Options Market Weathers Indian Regulatory Curbs Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets hereSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The price of gold is basically at record highs. But what is it about gold that people love so much? Why have people always craved a metal that has no real industrial uses? And what does owning or wearing gold represent? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Maksud Agadjani, the founder of TraxNYC, a jewelry store based in NYC's Diamond District. You may recognize Maksud from the movie Uncut Gems, where he played a character similar to himself, working in the fast-moving world of precious metals, rare stones, and flashy jewelry. We talked to him about the persistent demand for gold and why people are so into it right now. Read more: Gold’s Price Surge Drives Narcos Into Illegal Mining in the AmazonOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all know that the Federal Reserve tries to stabilize the economy by raising or cutting interest rates to balance inflation and unemployment. But the central bank’s mandate actually goes beyond monetary policy. The Fed is also responsible for reviewing and distributing billions of dollars in cash to banks all over the US. In this episode, we go deep inside the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to see how physical money actually gets moved around. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is our guide for the tour, and you’ll hear how the central bank gets its cash, how it checks it for authenticity and condition, and how it gets currency to where it needs to be.Read more: Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Uncertainty Driving Shallower Rate-Cut Path Odd Lots is going to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration has come into office with big ambitions to lower the size of the US deficit. So far, a number of small items have been identified as possible waste. But to meaningfully bend the curve on spending, there's widespread agreement that we'd have to look at things like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and defense. This is hard stuff to cut and it's something that governments around the world have long struggled with. How do you pull back on a prior commitment that your constituency has come to expect? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Firtz Bartel, an assistant professor of international affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M. He is also the author of the recent book The Triumph of Broken Promises, which examines the simultaneous economic crisis in the US, UK, and Soviet Union during the 1970s, and how each country was forced economically to essentially "break promises." We talk about what it takes politically to maintain domestic credibility for any government while undergoing such wrenching choices, and why some systems are better suited for it than others. Read More:Trump Tax Cuts’ Cost Estimated at $5 Trillion to $11 TrillionJudge Temporarily Halts Trump, Musk Federal Worker ‘Buyout’ Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a pretty widespread recognition that the EU is facing a bunch of economic challenges right now. Growth has been slowing and, as in many places, there's been post-pandemic inflation. But there are other issues too, including a sense that Europe is falling behind when it comes to key technologies like AI and semiconductors. There's also an ongoing energy crisis and the recent threat of tariffs from the US. So how is the European Central Bank evaluating and responding to these cyclical and structural challenges? How do one-off risks affect the direction of monetary policy? We speak with Philip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, about how the central bank is thinking about all these things. Read More:Trump’s Naughty List Could Put EU Cars, Machinery in Tariff CrosshairsECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we saw shares of software maker Palantir soar after reporting earnings and describing demand for AI as being "untamed." But what does Palantir do, and what do they actually sell to the federal government? More importantly, how does the government actually spend money on things related to security and national defense? Last year, Palantir's CTO Shyam Sankar published a document called "The Defense Reformation," containing 18 theses about arms procurement and how it should be changed. We talk to him about the history of US defense spending, and his vision for creating a more competitive, advanced environment for the US defense sector. Read More:Palantir Jumps Most in Year As ‘Untamed’ Demand Bolsters OutlookTrump’s Gaza Takeover Gets Israeli Approval, Global Scorn Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have gained access to a unit within the Treasury Department called the Bureau of Fiscal Service. But what does this unit actually do? How critical of a role does it play in the operations of government, and potentially, financial markets? On this episode, we speak with Nathan Tankus, the author of the Notes On The Crises newsletter. He explains both the technical aspect of this office, as well as the legal questions surrounding impoundment and the ability of the executive branch to cut off payments that have been previously authorized by Congress. We also talk about the operational risks and the potential disaster scenario should this system — which has been built in COBOL over decades — go down. Read More: US Treasury Brings In Two Members From Musk’s DOGE Team Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he was following through with his plan for aggressive tariffs. Imports from Canada and Mexico will now be hit with a 25% tariff, while China will get a 10% tariff. Although aggressive action was promised during the campaign, the news still rattled global financial markets, sending futures tumbling and the dollar spiking. Then, on Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that after a discussion with Trump, the tariffs aimed at her country would be delayed by a month. Meanwhile, more talks with Canada and China are expected. So what exactly are the economics of such tariffs? Are they inflationary? Who pays for them? And what are the implications of these ongoing threats? On this episode, we speak with Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, who answers all of our questions on the still developing news and how things might play out.Read More: How Trump’s Tariffs Aim a Wrecking Ball at the Economy of the Americas Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marko Kolanovic was one of the biggest names in markets, earning the nickname 'Gandalf' for some eerily prescient calls over the years. But last July he left his role as JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, after missing out on a pretty epic rally. Since then, stocks have climbed higher with valuations increasingly stretched. So what does Marko think of the market now? In this episode we talk about his outlook the market, the impact of AI including the new DeepSeek model out of China, plus his own research and analysis techniques.Read more: Kolanovic on the Canary in the Coal Mine for Higher Energy PricesOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows by now that MicroStrategy looks a lot like a giant Bitcoin ETF. Its founder, Michael Saylor, is a huge supporter of the cryptocurrency and his company has been snapping up billions of dollars worth of the coins. The strategy has so far proved successful. In fact, MicroStrategy is trading at a market cap that's worth more than the value of its entire Bitcoin portfolio. How does this happen? And how long can it keep going? In this episode, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion's Matt Levine. We talk to him about how MicroStrategy has created a sort of "perpetual motion machine" of investment and how the strategy is starting to expand to other companies, too. Money Stuff: Crypto Perpetual Motion Machines Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you're buying or renting, housing is very expensive. Thankfully, over the last year, some of the increases we've seen in rent prices have slowed significantly, and we're not too far away from the pre-Covid pace. The bad news is that this might not last. A confluence of factors is coming together that may cause yet another shock to housing affordability. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lee Everett, the head of research and strategy at the multi-family operator Cortland. He talks about how the increase in interest rates caused new development of apartment buildings to plunge, meaning supply will be increasingly scarce again in 2026. Then add in deportations of construction labor, soaring insurance costs, plus industry consolidation, and you have the recipe for another big shock to housing affordability coming quickly down the pike. Read More:LA’s Backyard-Home Boom Offers Wildfire-Hit Residents New OptionUS Housing Starts Top All Forecasts on Multifamily Construction Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Monday, the stock market tanked, seemingly in reaction to the emergence of DeepSeek, an open source AI model developed in China. Nvidia, the semiconductor giant that has been the largest winner of the AI boom, erased $589 billion in market cap, for the biggest one-day wipeout in US stock-market history. Other chipmakers and big tech giants also swooned. So how did DeepSeek do it? Is it a big threat to the American AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic? What does this say about export restrictions on US chips? On this special emergency session of the podcast, we spoke with Zvi Mowshowitz, an AI expert who authors the excellent Substack, Don’t Worry About the Vase. He answered all our questions and more to help understand what it means. Read more: AI-Fueled Stock Rally Dealt $1 Trillion Blow by Chinese UpstartWorld’s Richest People Lose $108 Billion After DeepSeek Selloff Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The run-up in Big Tech stocks and all the hype over AI has put a bunch of investors on "bubble watch." One of those is Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management. Howard is one of the most famous credit investors in the world, but he has experience in stock market bubbles too. Back in early 2000 — right before the Nasdaq peaked — he pointed out the frothiness in equities in a famous note titled "Bubble.com." So how does he actually spot a market bubble? How does a bubble differ from a bull run? And what is he seeing right now? We chat with Howard about all these things, including his experiences both in 2000 and during the 2008 subprime crisis.Read More: Can Howard Marks Spot a Stock Bubble Twice?Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a lot of talk right now about concentration risk in US equities. For instance, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 currently account for 38% of the total index, compared to just 17.5% a decade ago. And all the big winners have been tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, Meta, etc., prompting questions about whether investors are getting overly-enthused about AI. For some, it's also bringing back memories of the dotcom bubble. So just how concentrated is the US stock market right now? What exactly is "concentration risk" anyway? What does this trend say about the power of benchmark index providers like S&P? And -- crucially -- are market participants doing anything about it? In this episode we speak with Kevin Muir, a.k.a. the Macro Tourist, about why he thinks the market is now at "peak concentration," and what could change to reduce Big Tech's dominance.Read more: Index Providers Rule the World—For Now, at Least Nvidia and Five Tech Giants Now Command 30% of the S&P 500 IndexOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In theory, all of this AI spending has to deliver some kind of return. Companies (or other end users) will have to get tangible value from its outputs in order to justify the billions spent on research, chips, energy, and more. So what's actually happening at the corporate level? On this episode, we speak with Eric Glyman, who is the co-founder and CEO of Ramp, which helps corporations manage their expenses. As such, he has front row visibility in terms of what's actually being spent and who is actually getting the money. We talk about trends he's seeing in terms of spending going toward companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as how AI tech is affecting the operations of his own business. Read More:SoftBank Shares Soar as Masayoshi Son’s AI Vision CoalescesTrump Pushes to Make US an AI Superpower, With Fewer Guardrails Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tariffs, crypto, deregulation, tax cuts, protectionism, are just some of the things back on the table when Donald Trump returns to the Presidency. To help you plan for Trump's singular approach to economics, Bloomberg presents Trumponomics, a weekly podcast focused on the Trump administration's economic policies and plans. Editorial head of government and economics Stephanie Flanders will be joined each week by reporters in Washington D.C. and Wall Street to examine how Trump's policies are shaping the global economy and what on earth is going to happen next.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all know that the new Trump administration is likely to be more friendly to the crypto industry than the Biden administration was. And we know that the industry has generally been rather supportive and enthusiastic about the change at the White House. But what's actually coming next? What does being favorable to the industry really look like in practice? What does the crypto industry actually want to see in terms of changing regulations under a new administration? On this episode, we speak with Austin Campbell, professor at NYU's Stern School of Business and the CEO of stablecoin company WSPN USA about the possibilities ahead, and what moves the industry is hoping to see from the SEC and bank regulators.00Read More: Trump Plans to Designate Cryptocurrency as a National Priority Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Odd Lots has been exploring the history of the eurodollar market in a special three-part series hosted by Columbia Law School's Lev Menand and the New York Fed's Josh Younger. But why should we care about the origins of this market at all? How do eurodollars fit into the global financial system right now? And what role do they play in maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status? In this episode, we bring back Lev to give an update on the modern eurodollar market. We discuss why some policymakers have been sounding the alarm and whether stablecoins are the new eurodollars.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. By the 1970s, eurodollars are hitting the headlines — and not in a good way. While this new form of money initially acted as a pressure valve for the Bretton Woods system, many now think the eurodollar market has spun out of control. What happens next — including Richard Nixon's decision to take the US off the gold standard — will not only shape the ultimate contours of today's eurodollar market, but will also give us the modern financial system itself. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger. Read More:US Aims to Tighten Flow of TSMC and Samsung Chips to ChinaRussian Crude Oil Piles Up Near Chinese Coast After US Sanctions Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. As we enter the turbulent 1960s, the eurodollar market has grown big enough to catch the eye of regulators. The Federal Reserve mounts a fact-finding mission to better explore this rapidly-expanding market. And soon, policymakers have to decide just how helpful eurodollars can be when it comes to solidifying and expanding the greenback's role in international finance at a time when the gold-backed dollar is about to be put under massive pressure. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger. Read more:Trump Team Studies Gradual Tariff Hikes Under Emergency PowersCanadian Ambassador Warns of ‘Tit-For-Tat’ Retaliation to US Tariffs Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At more than $10 trillion outstanding, the eurodollar market is one of the biggest forms of shadow banking activity out there. It's also one of the most interesting markets in existence, allowing non-US banks to hold and lend offshore dollars that effectively sit outside of the Federal Reserve's control. But where did eurodollars actually come from? Why did the US allow these "shadow dollars" to exist at all? And what do eurodollars mean for the greenback's role in the global financial system? In this special three-part series, we look back at the hidden history of the eurodollar market. The story is told by Columbia Law School Professor Lev Menand and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Advisor Josh Younger. We start in the aftermath of World War II, when Europe is in the midst of an expensive reconstruction and the world is in the early throes of the Cold War. It's here that the eurodollar is born. Read more:Russia Sanctions Arm Trump for Talks With PutinScholz Steps Up Criticism of Trump’s Expansionist Rhetoric Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Regardless of your political ideology, it's easy to agree that government should work well; that it should be able to hire talented officials, and build things in a timely, cost-effective manner. Of course, what that means in practice is open for debate, and different people will have different priorities. But at the moment, there are reasons to believe the public sector isn't operating optimally. Things move incredibly slow in many cases. Software systems are often old and extremely costly, and don't do a good job serving the public's needs. It can be extremely difficult to bring on the best workers, even setting aside questions about public sector salaries. Jennifer Pahlka is the author of Recoding America, and was the founder of Code for America. She has also served as the US Deputy Chief CTO and has seen how much of government operates up close. We talk to her about what she's seen, how waste happens, how government operations get bogged down by inertia, and why simply identifying things that are going wrong isn't enough to change them. She talks to us about Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, and why a major jolt may be necessary to get better results. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the 1950s, a businessman, looking for a new way to settle his lunch tab, sparked a payments revolution and paved the way for today’s cashless economy. Now, the growing use of stablecoins like USDC is leading businesses and consumers to an era of digital payments that’s even faster and cheaper than a credit card. This episode is sponsored by Coinbase.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the biggest stories in markets right now is the huge selloff in government bonds. And we're not just talking about the US here. The UK is seeing multi-year highs in long-end yields. So is Japan. And of course, the US 10-year Treasury is close to its highest level in a year, despite the recent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. So what's going on? Is it just about inflation and growth expectations or is there more to it? On this episode, we speak to Jay Barry, head of global rates strategy at JPMorgan Securities, who breaks it all down and gives us his estimate of where fair value now stands.Read More: Fed’s Barkin Says Term Premium Moving Long Rates, Not Inflation Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Utilities in the US have a couple big jobs to do. On the one hand, they need to deliver affordable and reliable power to their customers. On the other hand, they also need to maintain and upgrade huge amounts of fixed infrastructure. Balancing those two jobs is getting more complicated thanks to America's aging electricity grid and the shift towards renewables. So how are big utilities squaring those two objectives? How do they decide how much money they need to fund new capital investment? How do they decide which customer pays what rate? And what role do regulators play in all these discussions? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lon Huber, senior vice president of pricing and customer solutions at Duke Energy, one of the largest utilities in the US. We talk about why the ramp-up in renewable energy hasn't led to lower electricity prices for everyone, why fuel is ultimately the most marginal cost of electricity generation, and how utilities are handling booming demand from data centers. Read More:AI Needs So Much Power, It's Making Yours WorseUK Set to Spend £1.8 Billion as Wind Power Overwhelms Grid Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you look at various surveys, Americans feel grim about the state of the economy. But even outside of the economy itself, you see negative readings for faith in various American institutions. Pessimism seems to be in right now, at least on a societal level. But it wasn't always this way. In the 1990s, we were between the Cold War and the War on Terror. The stock market boomed through much of the decade. Optimism was in. So what was that like, and then how did it come to an abrupt end in the early years of the new millennium? On this episode, we speak to Colette Shade, author of the new book Y2K: How the 2000s Became Everything, about this time period in America, what stood out, and what is relevant today.Related reading: Author of 'Dow 36,000' Book on Lessons Learned Since the 1999 Prediction Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the US right now, there is a lot of talk about a so-called "nuclear revival." But it remains to be seen whether we'll see a meaningful uptick in actual power generation, from either new reactors, or old reactors getting a restart. Meanwhile, in China, nuclear construction is full steam ahead. In the last decade, China has built 37 nuclear reactors, and several more are coming down the pipe. So what does it take to build nuclear at scale? On this episode, we speak to David Fishman, a China-based energy analyst at The Lantau Group. He walks us through all the elements of the country's nuclear success, from financing to manufacturing to its domestic power markets. We also discuss what, if any, lessons could be applied elsewhere. Previously: What’s Next for Uranium After the Big Price SurgeOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As is becoming something of an annual tradition here, we recently asked Odd Lots listeners to send in any questions they have about the show to Tracy and Joe, via voice memo. We took as many as we could, and answered questions on all kinds of things, ranging from our favorite economists to career advice to changes in how the news media operates. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As 2024 comes to an end, Tracy and Joe once again look back at the year that was in Odd Lots. On this final episode of the year, we revisit 10 of the most fascinating, surprising and unforgettable facts and ideas that came up on the show in the last 12 months, talking about everything from chicken prices to nickel mining to private finance. Click here to revisit these earlier 10 episodes: Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in November, we released our series called Beak Capitalism, which took a look at the entire US economy through the lens of chicken. Then we went on the Money Stuff podcast, hosted by Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld, to talk about our work. Here is a replay of that conversation, for those who missed it. You can subscribe to the Money Stuff podcast here. You can listen to Beak Capitalism here, here, and here. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll unlock deep reporting, data and analysis from reporters around the world, plus access to a suite of subscriber-only newsletters.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Biden administration made energy and climate a centerpiece of its administration, most notably through the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same time, we’ve seen a boom in US oil and gas production the last four years, alongside the novel use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a price and supply stabilization tool. Meanwhile, investments in batteries and other clean technologies have been framed as crucial from the perspective of strategic and economic competition with China. So what was accomplished? And what will persist after the Trump administration comes into office? On this episode, we speak with US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm about her transformation of the department, and how she thinks about the future of existing energy strategies and policies under Trump. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week, the Federal Reserve cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points, but simultaneously signaled a slower pace of cuts for next year. The guidance surprised markets and sparked a selloff in both stocks and bonds as traders adjusted to the new forecast. So what made the Fed change its stance? And where do the balance of risks to the economy lie right now? In this episode, we speak with Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly about how she's viewing the outlook for both inflation and the labor market. We also talk about the impact of AI on productivity, and how she's thinking about the potential impact of new policies from the incoming Trump administration. Read More:Fed’s Daly Says She’s ‘Very Comfortable’ With Two 2025 Rate CutsPowell Signals Fed’s Focus Has Returned Firmly to Inflation Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But it also raised its inflation outlook for 2025, and sees just two more cuts next year. The markets reacted violently to it, with the major measures posting their worst day in a long time. What's more, there was nowhere to hide. Bonds and gold also sold off, alongside equities. So what's going on now? And what does this mean for portfolio construction? On this episode, we speak with Jim Caron, chief investment officer of the Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. We talked about why the market reacted as sharply as it did, and how to think about next year, given highly concentrated markets, uncertain macro, and the difficulty in finding diversifying instruments. Read More: Powell Says Future Cuts Would Require Fresh Inflation Progress Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world of startup investing has undergone massive transformations amid the AI boom, changing capital markets, and an intense degree of competition from new entrants into the space. So what does it take to succeed in venture capital? How does an investor know if they have what it takes? On this episode, recorded in San Francisco, we speak with Nina Achadjian, a partner at Index Ventures. She talks about her career, how she differentiates herself from other investors, and the sectors she's most excited about, including what areas are poised to benefit from AI.Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the minor culture wars in America has to do with electric stoves. To some, they're more energy efficient and better for air quality. To others, electric stove requirements represent government overreach, and a loss of freedom to use a gas range. Impulse Labs wants to change the whole conversation. The company produces an induction stove — very different than most electric stoves — that it claims can not only produce superior food, but can also be a catalyst for electrification, thanks to its built-in battery storage. On this episode, we visited the Impulse offices in San Francisco to try out the stove ourselves and talk to CEO Sam D'Amico about the company's vision. We also discuss how a stove maker based in the US thinks about the grid, tariffs, buying batteries, and other challenges that come with selling a physical consumer product.Read More: How Did Gas Stoves Ignite a Culture War? Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Geothermal is a promising technology to provide clean, low-cost, baseload power to the electricity grid. It works by getting heat from deep in the ground, using technology that is similar to that used in fracking. Despite this potential, however, geothermal still remains a very small percentage of the US power mix. So what will it take for it to scale up? One big challenge is the core problem of financing. Firms need customers in order to get financing. But customers don't want to sign up for projects unless firms can finance them and get them built. On this episode, recorded live onstage at the Department of Energy's Deploy24 conference in Washington DC, we speak with Tim Latimer, the founder and CEO of geothermal company Fervo Energy. Tim was previously in the fracking industry. He explained to us how geothermal works, what's being built, and what it will take from private and public actors in order to scale it up. Read More:A Green Reason to Drill, Baby, Drill: Renewable Energy That’s Always On Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.