Odd Lots

You can do a lot of things with the click of a button nowadays. You can get insurance, open a bank account, or trade 347 different stocks all at once via an ETF. But one thing you definitely can't do via a single click, is refinance your mortgage. In fact, securing a mortgage still requires reams of paperwork -- a lot of which has to be physically mailed to all the different parties involved. So why is mortgage finance stuck in the stone age? In this episode we speak with Mike Yu, co-founder and CEO of Vesta, about why we don't have one-click mortgages refis. He describes how a mix of clunky legacy IT systems and regulation have combined to make mortgage finance a technological laggard. Read More:US Home-Purchase Applications Rise to Highest Since February Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI software and the hardware that enables it have been hugely popular investments this year. But there have still been limiting factors on the sector, including a shortage of compute to power so many new start-ups. Investors don't want to finance companies that lack a signed contract for compute, and compute providers don't want to sign contracts for startups that haven't already secured funding. Now Magnetar, a hedge fund which started its first ever venture capital fund earlier this year, is trying to solve this "chicken and egg" problem by offering compute in exchange for equity. Magnetar was an early investor in the AI space, partnering with Coreweave and recently helping the hyperscaler to raise $7.5 billion. On this episode, we speak with Jim Prusko, partner and senior portfolio manager on Magnetar's alternative credit and fixed income team, about why the hedge fund is getting into venture capital and some of the new ways they're deploying money in the space. Read More: Magnetar Starts First-Ever Venture Fund, Targets Generative AI Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the 2010s, we saw an incredible boom in the venture capital space, fueled in part by cheap capital as well as cheap compute. Fast forward to today, and many things look very different. We're not in the ZIRP era anymore. And computing power has become a scarce resource, particularly when it comes to AI. So how do things look different today from the perspective of a veteran venture capitalist? In this episode, recorded live in San Francisco in November, we speak to Ethan Kurzweil, a founder and managing partner at the new VC firm Chemistry. Ethan spent years at Bessemer Venture Partners, where he was involved in numerous software deals. He talks to us about his strategy for the new fund, the case for starting a small firm, what technologies excite him most right now, and the general landscape for seed-stage investing.Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, investors have relied on the classic 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. The idea behind this was simple: bonds tend to go up when stocks go down, so the two things should act as a natural hedge. But when inflation spiked in 2022 and 2023, the 60/40 portfolio performed terribly and bonds failed to act as a safety cushion. In this episode, we speak with Nouriel Roubini, chief economist and portfolio manager of the new Atlas America Fund, an ETF that is trying to create a new type of safe asset that can withstand big risks, including stagflation, deficits, and de-dollarization. We also talk about the outlook for the US economy in 2025, and the big risks that the chief economist and portfolio manager of the Atlas America Fund sees on the horizon.Read more: Roubini Launches Treasury-Alternative ETF to Ride Trump-Era RiskCrypto Critic Nouriel Roubini Is Working on a Tokenized Dollar ReplacementBecome a Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscriber using our special intro offer at Bloomberg Subscriptions | Digital, All Access, Corporate & Student . You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's trite to say that there is a high degree of uncertainty right now, for macro forecasters and investors. It also happens to be true. The new administration is promising major policy changes in areas like tariffs, immigration, and the size and scope of government. But even beyond that, there is near-term uncertainty over the outlook for the labor market and inflation. Furthermore, we're in an era of high stock valuations, high market concentration, and the AI wildcard. So in light of all this, we talked to Jan Hatzius, the Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research, and David Kostin, Goldman's top equity strategist, about what they're looking for in the year ahead. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The election of Donald Trump, with his promise of more tariffs and a much tighter stance on immigration is a source of major macro uncertainty. To some it marks the end of a certain neoliberal consensus about globalization, and the pre-eminent role played by financial markets. According to today's guest, we're at the beginning of a long, turbulent period that may not be resolved for two decades to come. On this episode, we speak with macro strategist Viktor Shvets, and author of the new book, The Twilight Before the Storm: From the Fractured 1930s to Today's Crisis Culture. He talks about the big rethink that's underway on a whole host of issues that pertain to the global economy, starting with trade, and why it will take years for the dust to settle.Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to credit investing (or really any investing), there's an analytic art in deciding the right price to pay for a security. But often that's only part of the challenge. First you need someone to want to sell it to you. In something like public-market equity, this usually isn't hard. Liquidity is deep, and the "ask" price is well known. In something like private credit, it's much trickier. Someone has to sell you the deal. Someone has to call you about it and tell you about it. So how do you get the call? And how do you know when to say yes? On this episode, we speak with Milwood Hobbs, the Managing Director and Head of Sourcing & Origination at Oaktree. Prior to this role, he was at Goldman Sachs, also in leveraged finance origination and sales. So he's been involved in numerous credit deals in his career. On this episode, he talks us through his role, what's involved in it, how he gets offered deals, and how he determines what opportunities are better or worse.Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the Zirp era of the mid-2010s, credit markets were booming and investors were clamoring for anything that would produce yield. So they were willing to accept fewer legal protections embedded in bond and loan documentation if it meant they could get a slice of a juicy deal. Today, the proliferation of these so-called "cov-lite" deals has been coming back to haunt the market, with investors now fighting each other over how much they can claw back from struggling companies. Some hedge funds have become incredibly creative when it comes to finding loopholes to exploit in deal docs. So what exactly is "creditor-on-creditor violence" and why has it become such a thing? How much is it adding to big investors' legal bills? And what can be done to reduce all the squabbling? We speak with Sujeet Indap, Wall Street Editor at the Financial Times and author of The Caesars Palace Coup: How a Billionaire Brawl Over the Famous Casino Exposed the Corruption of the Private Equity Industry. Read More: Hedge Funds Smell Blood as Lenders Turn on Each Other Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, the Harvard Endowment has easily been the largest endowment of any university. But as of right now, it's at risk of losing its crown to the University of Texas. So what happened? It's a combination of things including organizational tumult, external controversies over the university, controversy about the endowment's model itself, and other factors. And of course, Texas has unique tailwinds -- including a huge energy windfall -- that aren't easily replicated elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Bloomberg's higher education reporter Janet Lorin about what's changed at this huge source of capital.Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How did China become the economic behemoth that it is today? One pivotal moment was, obviously, it's ascension into the WTO. Prior to that, the era of reform under Deng Xiaoping was obviously crucial. But obviously no single event or turning point can really tell the story. In a groundbreaking new book -- The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform -- historians Odd Arne Westad and Chen Jian tell the full story of how China went from being an impoverished, highly planned communist economy to the dynamic capitalist economy it is today. We spoke with Westad, a professor at Yale, about this book, and what people get wrong about China's big opening up. Read more:China’s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade WarMorgan Stanley, Goldman Call for Greater China TransparencySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After his victory, Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy would be leading up a new Department of Government Efficiency in order to crack down on wasteful, fraudulent spending inside the federal government. Setting aside the question of how effective this particular endeavor will be, the basic premise of cracking down on waste and going after fraudsters should generally be non-controversial. So what does fraud look like? How do companies bilk programs like Medicare and Medicaid for billions of dollars every year? And what can be done about it? On this episode, we speak with Jetson Leder-Luis, an assistant professor at the Questrom School of Business at Boston University and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Jetson walks us through such things as ambulance fraud, identity theft, and other techniques that are used to milk the system. He also explains the tactics and strategies that the government can deploy to reduce billions in wasted spending. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we’re taking a look at market competition. Chicken in the US is dominated by a handful of huge poultry processors. But new technologies, like algorithmic pricing, are also leading to accusations of anticompetitive corporate behavior that can potentially create bad outcomes for both consumers and workers. We’re using poultry to trace the evolution of America’s approach to antitrust and learning what’s different now. You’ll hear from senior officials at the Department of Justice about how concentration in chicken and elsewhere is impacting the economy, and what can be done to fix it. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the birds themselves and the people who farm them. Because the way we actually get chicken has changed a lot over the years, with the industry evolving from backyard birds to huge poultry companies that outsource chicken growing to independent contractors. Farmers often say they are taking on most of the risk of raising chicks, while the big poultry companies get most of the upside. And this model of farming is becoming more popular in other agricultural areas too. So what does the way chickens are produced say about the labor market, the way it’s structured, and the distribution of risk and profits? We speak with chicken growers, agricultural experts, and more. This episode was updated on November 19th, 2024 to reflect a clarification —it wasn’t until 2013 that Craig Watts sent a film of his barns to his production manager. In 2014 is when he partnered with a human rights activist to produce that exposé on chicken farming. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, the Odd Lots team is exploring some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy, through the medium of chicken. In this first episode, we’re looking at chicken from the consumer side. Why do we love it so much? What goes into the price of something like a hot wing or an egg? And what can chicken tell us about the way we think of inflation? We speak with prominent economists, analysts, CEOs, and even a chicken sandwich war correspondent, to discuss. It’s time for Squawk Lots! Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncertain from here on out. Inflation has been softening this year, but there’s a sense that this trend could turn — especially with the Trump administration coming in after the new year. All of this raises the question of what the Fed does next, and how it’s approaching near-term data versus the longer-term outlook for the economy. At the same time, Trump has had vocal disagreements with Chair Jerome Powell over the path of monetary policy and the role of the central bank, which adds more uncertainty. On this episode, we speak with former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, now an economic advisor at Pimco and a professor of economics at Columbia University, about where the Fed goes from here. Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this limited series, Odd Lots explains some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of … chicken. Chicken occupies a unique position in the US diet, but issues facing the poultry industry illustrate wider points about the development of the US economy and the decisions being made about how it's structured and who benefits from it. So why has the chicken industry evolved in the way that it has? What’s been driving the price increases in eggs and meat? And what does it all say about things like inflation, the labor market and the nature of American capitalism?Check out Beak Capitalism on Odd Lots starting Friday, November 15th, 2024 wherever you get your podcasts.Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last roughly 15 years, we've seen a migration of certain types of risks outside of regulated deposit-taking banks. Private credit has boomed, shifting lending activity away from the banks. Multi-strategy hedge funds have scooped up a lot of the proprietary trading activity that was banned under the Volcker Rule. On paper, this looks good. It seems like various risks have been removed to less systemic institutions. But does the risk find its way back in? What happens when these outside entities still rely on banks for leverage? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Steven Kelly, the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. We talk about where risks might lie and how regulators can stay atop of them. Read More:Era of Private Credit Returns Beating Private Equity Is Nearing an EndHedge Fund Basis Trade Faces Scrutiny as Regulators Mull ProbeOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There was a a point in time when Twitter used to be good for breaking news. Social media outlets like Instagram and Facebook were great for keeping up with friends. There used to be websites that people would refresh throughout the day, reading news or gossip from sources they knew and trusted. Now, most of that has gone -- or at least changed dramatically. A combination of profit imperatives, political motivations, and AI have upended much of that old internet. So what happened? Why has the web become a home of slop and sludge? We speak to Max Read, the author of the Read Max newsletter, to understand today's internet, and where things are going next. Read More:Musk Is About to Find What $130 Million for Trump Gets HimTikTok Ordered to Close Canada Unit Due to National SecurityOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US election is over and Donald Trump has won a second term as president. Stocks have rallied on Trump's win, of course, but some of the more interesting moves have taken place in the bond market. Not only have yields on US Treasuries shot up, but expectations for volatility in the world's most important market were also shifting higher ahead of Trump's win. All of this is happening even though the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut benchmark rates again this week. So what's driving higher yields? On this episode, we speak with Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management and creator of Convexity Maven, about all the recent moves in bonds and what could be coming next. Read More:Volfefe Returns to the Bond MarketThe Market’s Constraint on Full Trumpism Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd Lots event, where we interviewed some of our regular guests on stage to talk about the vote, as well as the economic and market implications in the days and years ahead — regardless of who wins. First up, you'll hear a conversation about prediction markets, regular markets, and vote-watching with Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, and prediction markets bettor Zvi Mowshowitz. And then in the second half of the show, we hear from the Council on Foreign Relations fellow Brad Setser on the global environment — what Brad calls an "unhealthy globalization" — that the next president will inherit. Read More: How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Be in the know this election with Bloomberg Podcasts. Follow Bloomberg News Now for up-to-the minute election results, all night long. And go deeper with The Big Take podcast, featuring in-depth global analysis of the US election every day this week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Biden administration has overseen a revival of so-called industrial policy in a way that we haven't seen in years. Major efforts are underway to revive or reinvigorate US production of semiconductors, batteries, and other key technologies. But it's not clear if these efforts will have any legs and sustain a new trajectory of US policymaking. Was it just a blip? Or does this represent a new era in terms of how we think about the relationship between the government and the economy? On this episode, we speak with Ezra Klein, host of The Ezra Klein Show, about the legacy of this era. We talk about different possible paths under both a Harris and Trump administration, as well as what other policy areas may come into vague in the years ahead. Read More:Bidenomics Leaves a Blue State Industrial Heartland BehindTrump Threat to Biden’s Industrial Policy Hangs Over Asian FirmsBecome a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's something of a uranium cult out there: the investors and traders who believe that nuclear is the future of energy, and therefore this crucial commodity will end up being a huge winner. And over the last several years, the price has gone up substantially. But what are the economics of the uranium market? And how sensitive is it to some of these power plants that are reopening? On this episode, we speak with commodities guru Bob Brackett, head of Americas energy and transition at Bernstein Research. Bob knows everything about just about every commodity under the sun, so in addition to talking uranium, we get an update on lithium, gold, silver, oil, and more. Previously: The Three Big Things Driving the Nuclear Energy RevivalBecome a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is making steady progress in its quest to dominate key industries of the future, despite years of US tariffs, export controls and sanctions. Check out this special episode of Bloomberg's Big Take Asia podcast, as hosts K. Oanh Ha talks to Bloomberg News correspondent Rebecca Choong Wilkins about how the US is struggling to curb Beijing’s technological advances, and whether the upcoming presidential election could change the dynamic.Then come back on Thursday, as Rebecca joins the next episode of Odd Lots -- along with Bloomberg economic analyst Gerard DiPippo -- to take a further look at the ongoing tech rivalry between the US and China. Read more: The Big Take: Efforts to Contain Xi’s Push for Tech Supremacy Are FalteringSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2015, China identified several key industries of the future for which it aimed to compete at the technological frontier. The 'Made in China 2025' plan included expansion in things like EVs, solar power, batteries, semiconductors, AI, and drones. But now, 2025 is almost here and China's progress has been remarkable across several of these categories. In fact, it's the world leader in some of these industries (like EVs and solar), and it's catching up in others. In this episode we speak with Bloomberg News reporter, Rebecca Choong Wilkins, as well as Gerard DiPippo, senior geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. The two of them were part of a team that took a major look at the status of Made In China 2025 (a name that isn't really even used that much anymore). We discuss how much progress China has made despite efforts from the US over the last several years to impede its ambitions, and how it's judging the success of the program. Read More:US Efforts to Contain Xi’s Push for Tech Supremacy Are FalteringHow American Tax Breaks Brought a Chinese Solar Energy Giant to OhioBecome a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Florida has been struck by two big hurricanes this year, setting off a wave of damage and, of course, new insurance claims. As we all know by now, insurance rates in places like Florida, Louisiana, and California have jumped in recent years thanks to a combination of more natural disasters, higher replacement costs, and other factors. But Florida has become a particularly expensive market, with roofing scams supposedly pushing up rates for everyone, and a string of private insurers exiting the market. So what's the future of this messy market? We speak with Jerry Theodorou, policy director of finance, insurance and trade at R Street Institute, a free market think tank. He's also a veteran of the insurance industry and, in this episode, he walks us through what's been going on in Florida's insurance market and argues that there are some signs that things are getting better. Read More:Why Insurance Rates Have Been Surging in California and FloridaFlorida Home Insurers With Lax Ratings Pose New Property RiskBecome a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When sports, business and culture collide, there’s often a deal to be made. Join Alex Rodriguez and Bloomberg correspondent Jason Kelly as they get the inside track from corporate titans, sports champions and game-changing entrepreneurs on investing, strategy, reinvention and the ones that got away. The Deal is a Bloomberg Podcasts and Bloomberg Originals series that’s passionate, relaxed, insightful and inspirational. If you think you know these icons, prepare to be surprised.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shares of Boeing, America's biggest aerospace manufacturer, have plummeted 40% so far this year. The company is facing a string of challenges, including fatal crashes of its 737 Max jet, a door blowing off another 737 aircraft, striking workers, and difficulties ramping up production. That's opened up some pretty existential questions for the company — including whether this former national champion will even survive for much longer. In the meantime, Boeing executives are trying to turn things around by raising additional capital and slashing the workforce to bring down costs. But will it work? In this episode, we speak with aerospace veteran Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, about the ongoing mess that is Boeing.Read More: Boeing Workers Reject Deal in Longshot Bid to Revive PensionThe Remarkable Story of Brazilian Jet Maker EmbraerBecome a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By now, everyone knows that private credit is a hot market. What's less known is that banks want in on it too. It's an odd state of affairs given that both these entities are in the business of making loans, so in theory they should be competing against each other. But instead we're seeing a bunch of deals, with more than a dozen big banks teaming up with private credit over the past year. So why are two seemingly natural competitors joining forces? And how much of an existential threat does private credit really pose for the banking industry? On this episode, we with speak with Huw van Steenis, vice-chair at Oliver Wyman and a long-time bank analyst at Morgan Stanley, about this new dynamic.Read More: The Macro Impact of the Private Credit BoomThe Black Hole of Private CreditBecome a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On September 18, the Federal Reserve kicked off the cutting cycle by reducing overnight rates by 50 basis points. Since then, mortgage rates have gone higher. This is not obviously an intuitive thing to happen. The point of a rate cut is to stimulate the economy by reducing the cost to borrow. And people generally know that interest rates and mortgage costs are linked. Well, it turns out they are linked, but not directly. And certainly not in some linear manner. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Tom Graff, the CIO of the wealth management firm Facet, and a long-time trader in the fixed income space. We talk about the factors that influence mortgage rates, why the spread between a 30-year fixed and a 10-year Treasury fluctuates over time, and how rate cuts can be priced in before they even happen. We also talk about what we'll need to see for mortgage rates to move sustainably lower. Read More:US Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.52%, Highest Since Early AugustWhy a 'Broken' Mortgage Market Is Keeping Borrowing Rates Extra HighSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For decades, investors have been told that diversifying is a good thing. You should hold a basket of stocks across different sectors and geographies, plus bonds, maybe some commodities or real estate, and so on. But, it turns out that you probably would have done better if you just bought large-cap US stocks in the form of an S&P 500 ETF like SPY. So why haven't diversified investments performed better? In this episode, we speak with Meb Faber, CIO of Cambria Investment Management, the host of the Meb Faber show, and the author of one of the most-downloaded research papers on SSRN. He says the last 15 years have "arguably been the worst period ever for an asset allocation portfolio. Read more:Great ‘Bear Market’ in Diversification Haunts Wall Street ProsThe Fate of the World’s Largest ETF Is Tied to 11 Random MillennialsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In September, Chinese policymakers shocked the markets by unveiling a set of stimulus measures designed to boost the economy and bolster the real estate market. While it's too soon to know whether the announcements will be successful, the stock market took off like a rocket in the wake of the news. Since the initial unveiling, further efforts have been announced with promises of more to come. So how big of a deal is this really? Is this the start of a major turning point in China's economic trajectory? Or is this just business as usual? On this episode, we speak with two guests. First, we discuss the macro situation with Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute, and the famed theorist of "balance sheet recessions." Then we delve further into China's decision-making apparatus with Zichen Wang, the author of the must-read Pekingology newsletter. Our guests answer why this time may be different, how these measures come about, how they get implemented, and what to watch next in terms of their impact. And if you want more Odd Lots content, subscribe to our new daily newsletter over here. Read more:US Trade Rep Katherine Tai Describes the New Era of GlobalizationAdam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese EconomySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Big tech stocks have had an enormous impact on the stock market, with Magnificent 7 companies like Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia now dominating equity indices and basically dictating the path of benchmark returns. And of course, there's been loads of discussion about the real transformational value of AI and whether it's all going to end up being one big bubble. But tech investing and big disruptive trends like AI aren't just for equity investors. They're playing out in the credit market, too. And of course, building the data centers and producing the chips that power AI requires huge amounts of capital — much of which is sourced via bonds and loans. Increasingly, a lot of that capital is coming from private credit players, one of the biggest of which is Apollo Global Management. In this episode, we speak with Rob Bittencourt, a partner at Apollo and co-head of opportunistic credit, about how the tech story is playing out and what Apollo is doing in the space.Read More: Private Credit to Outperform in a Downturn, Apollo’s Zelter SaysOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What if your contracts could be a roadmap to running your business – the first step in managing your relationships with your suppliers and clients? That’s the function of Sirion, a contract lifecycle management software for in-house legal departments. This episode of The ROI Rules of AI explores how Sirion has recently been upgraded with generative AI functionality designed to make it something the whole company can use, not just its legal staff. This episode is sponsored by IBM.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve basically had one focus: defeating inflation. That's now changed. Keeping inflation at bay is still important, but the Fed is now attuned to labor market risks as well. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee about how the US economy achieved something that almost nobody thought was possible: a marked decline in inflation without a major increase in the unemployment rate or a slowdown in economic activity. We discuss what actually happened to the economy over the last four years. What was the role of monetary policy in bringing down inflation? How much of the inflation turned out to be transitory all along? And what are the risks today, with the September jobs report having come in much stronger than expected? He explains why the Fed has shifted its priority and how he's thinking of risk management at this point in the economic cycle.Read More:Three Fed Officials Shrug Off CPI Report, Bostic Open to Pause Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In recent years, we've seen the emergence of cities whose main industry is that they're a great place to live if you're rich. Dubai would be the ultimate example of this dynamic. But it's not just Dubai. Lots of cities, all around the world, exist to cater to the wealthy, with a set of laws and taxation schemes that act like a magnet for global wealth. So how do these cities work? How big are they? And what exactly do they offer the global rich? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Atossa Araxia Abrahamian, author of The Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks The World. She talks about these booming types of cities, how they emerged, and where they are going. Read more: Miami Wealth Boom Fuels $13 Billion Firm Serving the Ultra RichOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Multi-strategy hedge funds are still all the rage on Wall Street, but what does it actually mean to be a pod shop and how are they being set up? On this episode, we speak with Dan Morillo, co-founder of Freestone Grove Partners and formerly a partner and head of equity quantitative research at Citadel (one of the most successful multi-strats out there.) While lots of people tend to talk about multi-strategy hedge funds as one big blob, he argues that there are important differences in their business models. We talk about how he identifies top portfolio managers, managing crowding risk, and the math behind compensation, scale and returns.Previously:How Hedge Funds Discover the Next Superstar Trader How to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge FundsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US is in the midst of a big effort to bring more semiconductor manufacturing onshore. Intel is the biggest US semiconductor manufacturer. There's just one problem. Intel has really been struggling to get its fab operations up and running in a timely, efficient manner. So what's the problem, and can the company turn things around? On this episode of Lots More, we speak to Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research and Mackenzie Hawkins of Bloomberg News to discuss the current struggles and future prospects for the company.Mentioned in this episode: Intel Gets Multibillion-Dollar Apollo Offer as Qualcomm CirclesArm Is Rebuffed by Intel After Inquiring About Buying Product Unit Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2017, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which may be better known as the Trump tax cuts. Due to the way fiscal policy works in the United States, a large component of the bill was temporary. And starting in 2026, millions of households are due to see higher taxes if the bill isn't extended or a new one is passed. Regardless of who wins the presidency, dealing with this tax hike is going to be a key political issue. But what is the TCJA? What was the idea behind it? And what happens if it expires? On this episode of the podcast we speak to Kevin Brady, who was the architect of the bill as the former Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. We discuss both the economics and the politics of passing tax reform, and what Brady hoped to accomplish when he created the law.Read More: Trump Tax Cuts Would Cost More Than Almost All Federal AgenciesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this month, we got the surprising headline that the shuttered nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island will be restarted. Of course, Three Mile Island was the site of a famous disaster in 1979 — one of the incidents that contributed to the US pulling back on the construction of new nuclear plants. This particular reactor was shuttered in 2019, when the economics of it no longer made sense. So why the restart? And why is there generally more interest and excitement about nuclear than there has been in years? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Jigar Shah, the head of the Loan Programs Office at the Department of Energy. We talk about the big drivers both in terms of policy and economic conditions that have created this renaissance.Read More: Microsoft AI Needs So Much Power It's Tapping Site of US Nuclear MeltdownMicrosoft to Pay Hefty Price for Three Mile Island Clean PowerOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Look out. Supply chains are back in the news. As soon as next week, workers at all of the ports on the US East Coast could go on strike, crippling trade across a range of industrial and agricultural parts of the economy. So what's at stake? What do the workers want? Is there any prospect of the US government heading it off? On this episode, we speak with Craig Fuller, the founder and CEO of FreightWaves, about what the labor dispute is all about and how it could possibly hammer the economy in the weeks leading up to the presidential election. Read More: Port Employers Ask NLRB to Force Dockworkers to Bargaining Table Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right now, industrial policy is back in vogue in the US. The administration is making an effort at reviving specific sectors, notably in areas of clean energy and semiconductors. But despite all of the money being spent on subsidies of various sorts, there's no guarantee it will actually work. If it were easy, every country would do it. So what are the conditions that make it possible? And how can it go sour? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Vivek Chibber, a professor at NYU, and the author of several books including Locked In Place, which compares the development experience of South Korea and India. We talk about the interaction of economic policy and domestic politics, as well as the specific political conditions that need to be in place that allow the government to provide "gifts" to companies, and for those gifts to actually turn into leading edge industrial leaders, rather than for that money to simply go into the pockets of investors. Among the things we discuss are: What industrial policy actually is and what it's going to take for the US endeavors to actually become successful. Read More:How Economic Complexity Explains Which Countries Become RichAdam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese EconomySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days if you talk to people about the stock market, they might talk to you about the effect of the Fed. Or they'll talk about the Mag 7 and AI capex spend. Or they'll extoll the virtues of passive, low-cost investing. It seems like you hear less and less about the art of security selection: Finding cheap diamonds in the rough that have been overlooked by other investors. But some people are still keeping that world alive. John Rogers is the founder and co-CEO of Ariel Investments, and in his primary mutual fund he invests only in mid- and small-cap companies. Recorded live on stage at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, CA, we talk about his approach. He explains why he believes value investing still works, and the process he uses to select individual names. We also discuss what he looks for and how he researches stock picks. Among other things, he tells us why he's invested in The Sphere (yes, that Sphere in Vegas) as well as the company that makes the McFlurry machines for McDonald's.Read More: Stocks, Bonds Trim Declines After Waller Comments: Markets Wrap Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Future Proof Festival takes place right on the beach in Huntington Beach, California. Thousands of registered investment advisors from all over the country come to talk shop, take pitches from vendors, eat tacos, drink beer, and listen to a concert from Third Eye Blind. On this Lots More, we talk with Sam Ro, the author of the Tker.co newsletter about the RIA scene, financial media, behavioral finance, the Fed, and the business of musical artists playing at conferences. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, the Fed cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points. Lower financing costs should be a relief for companies that need to borrow in the form of bonds or loans. But, the weird thing about the previous few years of high rates and high inflation is how much corporate credit has defied expectations. While defaults increased slightly, there wasn’t a huge wave of bankruptcies. And most companies haven’t really had trouble finding financing, with a smorgasbord of options available to them — including from the booming private credit market. So what happens now that the Fed is lowering rates? In this episode, we speak with Danielle Poli, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree’s Diversified Income Fund and a founding member of the firm’s investment committee, about how she sees the next leg of the credit cycle unfolding, and how she decides between a multitude of potential investments in the space. Related Links:The Black Hole of Private Credit That’s Swallowing the EconomyThe Hottest Way for Banks to Get Risk Off Their Balance Sheets Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s Fed Day, and while everyone expects the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates, the key question is by how much? Will it be 25 basis points or 50? Investors are evenly split between the two possibilities, setting up one of the most uncertain meetings ever. So what does a big bond manager do on a day like this? In this episode, we speak with Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO at Pimco, where he manages the $158 billion Pimco Income Fund. He tells us what he’s expecting from the FOMC, and what he’s seeing in terms of financial conditions and the real restrictiveness of the monetary environment right now. He also walks us through what Fed day is actually like at Pimco, where he thinks the economy is going, and answers the question of whether — with rates finally going down — bonds might be back in favor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

15 years ago was a pivotal moment for financial media. On the one hand, we were in the midst of a huge financial crisis, which shook everything up and exposed how little we knew about our own world. In addition to that, we were in the early moments of a revolution, which saw the rise of blogs, podcasts, "Finance Twitter" and other new platforms for disseminating information about markets and business. One of the winners from that era was Josh Brown, a former stockbroker who rose to fame in part on the back of his must-read blog The Reformed Broker. Now he's the CEO of a large investment advisory firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management. He's got a popular podcast. He's got a new book. He's a fixture on CNBC. And he even has a conference business. We talk about his career path, what he's learned, some funny stories from the good old days, and how he became a media giant.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Financial institutions have been a leading target for cyber crime since the dawn of the internet. But phishing schemes have become far more intricate, and cyber heists go beyond stealing money from a bank. JF Legault, Deputy CISO at J.P. Morgan Chase, explains how he leads cyber defense on the front lines of work — and lays out a strategy to transform teams into early detection networks. Then David Adrian from Chrome unpacks how web browsing protections, robust monitoring, and a real-time view of threats can fit into this kind of strategy to maximize resilience to a cyber attack. This episode is sponsored by Chrome Enterprise.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, former European Central Bank President and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi published a long-awaited report examining ways to make the European economy more competitive. The report comes at a time when there are major concerns about how Europe is stacking up against the US and China in things like electrical vehicles and AI. It also dovetails with long-running debates about German fiscal austerity, economic tensions between various European Union members, energy crises, and inflation. In this episode, we speak with University of Massachusetts-Amherst economics professor Isabella Weber about her takeaways from the report and potential policy approaches to solving Europe's big competitiveness problem.Referenced in this episode:Draghi Says EU Itself at Risk Without More Funds, Joint DebtDraghi’s Call for Joint EU Bonds Hits Wall of German Opposition Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the big buzzwords over the last year or so has been "overcapacity." There's a constant line of argument that China is unfairly flooding the world with unprofitable goods and creating huge, unsustainable imbalances. Western countries, particularly the US (but also Europe), have responded by raising tariffs and engaging in domestic industrial policy in order to compete. But is the strategy sound? Are the basic premises of the problem correct? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Columbia Professor Adam Tooze, the author of several books, as well as the popular Chartbook newsletter. He argues that the overcapacity framing is misguided, and that the US may be making a mistake putting its chips down on an industrial revival. He talks us through some of the actual weaknesses of the Chinese model, as well as its global political reverberations. Read more: Two Veteran Chip Builders Have a Plan to Take On Nvidia The US and China Are in an All Out Race for AI DominationSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.