Odd Lots

Troubles at Boeing just keep piling up, along with existential questions about the company's future. Not only is Boeing enormously important to US manufacturing, but it's also a major defense contractor for the US government and a big employer, which means its fortunes are of interest to more than just shareholders. So just how bad are the difficulties facing Boeing at the moment and what is the planemaker planning to do about it? On this episode, we speak to Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, about Boeing's history and future. He talks about lesser-known developments at the company, including its recent decision to dissolve its firm-wide strategy unit, and the decisions that go into developing new aircraft.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The growth of electric vehicles has heightened concerns about China's current dominance in lithium-ion batteries. So as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, the US government is spending money and providing tax credits to companies that are attempting to build up a domestic supply chain. So what are the real challenges to expanding America's battery-making capacity, both in terms of financing and operations? On this episode, we speak with Dr. Chris Burns, the founder and CEO of Novonix, a battery materials company with a focus on synthetic graphite manufacturing. He explains his company's role in the battery supply chain, the economics of domestic manufacturing, and how it employs the government's policy endeavors in its work.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last year, Corbu managing director Samuel Rines came on Odd Lots to discuss what exactly companies were saying about why they were raising prices. His argument was that in the post-pandemic environment, with all its associated peculiarities and one-off disruptions, businesses were pursuing a strategy of "price over volume" (POV) to boost their profit margins. Since then, the idea of corporate profits contributing to inflation has gone viral, with the Biden administration repeatedly admonishing companies for price-gouging. In this episode of Lots More, we discuss the latest earnings season and what it's telling us about prices right now. Rines argues that the POV strategy is petering out in favor of companies maintaining prices and preserving margins ("Price and Margin") and even beginning to boost their volumes. We also talk about recent job cuts and layoff announcements.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A little less than a year ago, the US financial system was rocked by its first major banking drama since 2008. While the crisis was eventually contained, and only three lenders ended up collapsing, the experience re-ignited an ongoing conversation about the way we rescue troubled lenders. Not only did the Federal Reserve launch a new liquidity program called the Bank Term Funding Program as part of its support to the banking system in 2023, but regulators are now talking about changing existing facilities, including the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) and the discount window. For instance, Michael Hsu of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's has proposed that banks be required to tap the discount window and "pre-position" collateral at the facility, just in case they one day need it. In this episode, we speak with Steven Kelly, associate director of research at the Yale University Program on Financial Stability, about the constellation of existing emergency facilities for banks, how they've evolved over time, and the changes that could be made to them now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in 2016, Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included a much harsher stance toward trade with China, and the US-China Trade War was a big deal while he was in office. But the Biden administration has quietly continued the Trump tariff regime and even enacted more stringent restrictions targeting China's use of technology, including on semiconductors. Now that Trump looks set to get the Republican presidential nomination again, he's suggesting even higher tariffs — of 60% or more — on Chinese goods. What effect would that actually have on the US economy and global trade? Would it lead to higher prices for Americans when the country is still struggling with inflation? Or would it result in a slowing of the economy that actually mutes prices? Would US domestic manufacturing ramp up to fill the gap? Or would we simply import more from other countries? In this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Mackenzie Hawkins, US industrial policy reporter for Bloomberg News, who have published an in-depth analysis of the impact of these potential tariffs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US oil production has surged to an all-time record of more than 13 million barrels produced per day. But where's all that crude actually going? And how is it being handled and stored? On this episode, we speak with Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer at the Tank Tiger, a clearing house for terminal storage, and co-host of the Tank Talk podcast, about the business of moving and storing oil and its related products. We talk about what storage capacity looks like right now, how it's changed over time, plus last year's diesel shortage in the Northeast. He also describes exactly how crude oil and refined products move from point A to point B, talks about the crud you find at the bottom of storage tanks, and explains why you should definitely not keep oil in the bathtub (or on your desk) to benefit from contango. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The last week saw a major plunge in shares of New York Community Bancorp after the company revealed challenges in its lending to multi-family residential developers. So what went wrong at this bank? And what does it say about this particular market? On this episode we speak with Quantierra CEO Ben Carlos Thypin, a New York City landlord and investor, about the bank's large role within NYC's rent-stabilized housing market. Over the last year, Ben has advised funds to short NYCB based on its exposure to this complex corner of real estate. He explains how NYCB's position, combined with market and regulatory changes to the city's housing market, contributed to the strains.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We know that companies think carefully about where they open stores. They might look at things like how many people pass by the location on a day-to-day basis or how easy it is to access the site by car. But what are the lesser known factors that go into deciding where to open a brick-and-mortar store? And how have these considerations changed over time? In this episode, we talk about the art of retail site selection. We speak with Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers, which annually hosts one of the biggest deal-making events connecting retailers and commercial real estate owners. Then, we drill down into a specific type of business: drive-thrus for coffee chains and fast food restaurants. We speak with Chris Hatch, partner at Forza Development.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland, we've seen a wave of protests recently from angry farmers. So what's driving the activity? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Lorcan Roche Kelly, a former cattle farmer in Western Ireland who is now the business editor at the Irish Farmers Journal. He explains how a combination of factors from climate obligations, economic conditions, government regulation, and free trade deals have put the squeeze on many farms, causing this public revolt. He explains the unique conditions facing each country, as well as broader political and economic ramifications.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue to escalate. What started with narrow strikes by Yemeni-based Houthi militants against Israel-linked vessels has now expanded to ships carrying a wide range of freight, including oil and liquified natural gas. The US military has responded with strikes against Houthi targets, but so far they don't appear to have much of a deterring effect. Meanwhile shipping delays and costs — driven in part by anxious insurers — continue to worsen. To understand the challenge to global trade and how bad it could get, we speak with maritime historian Sal Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University and the host of the What Is Going On With Shipping? show on YouTube. He discusses how shipping companies are making operational decisions in the area, how boat crews are coping, and how various international militaries are responding. He also talks about the broad history of the US Navy and its traditional role in securing international trading routes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's a busy week for the bond market with a meeting of the Federal Reserve and the release of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding statement. While a lot of people have been focusing on when the Fed will cut benchmark interest rates, there's also an ongoing debate about how fast the central bank will shrink its balance sheet given last year's banking crisis and the recent drama in the repo market. In this episode, we speak with Mark Cabana, longtime rates strategist at Bank of America, about the big questions lurking behind the week's events. We talk about who will buy all the bonds the US is selling, what will happen to bank balance sheets as rates go down, and the impact of liquidity on the broader market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Lots More, we speak with Claudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the recent uptick in the US unemployment rate. We discuss the implications for the Sahm Rule, the early recession indicator she discovered and which has been a hot topic since the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report. We also talk about data challenges for economists, the prospect of recession, and dealing with online commenters.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's episode is a special edition of Bloomberg's Big Take DC podcast, featuring an interview with our own Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. They spoke to Big Take host Saleha Mohsin of Bloomberg News, about how the US has managed to avoid a recession — and whether the Federal Reserve’s decisions were based on reliable data. It also features an interview with Claudia Sahm, an ex-Fed economist and contributor to Bloomberg Opinion. To hear more from Big Take DC, subscribe to their show.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are plenty of one-off risks at the moment, but it seems like betting on pretty much nothing happening is more popular than ever. Investors are increasingly reaching for a wide variety of derivatives to bet against volatility. Those derivatives include one- and zero-day options which expire in 24 hours or less, and have become a hot button topic on Wall Street. So what's the impact of this explosion in options trading? Why is it happening at a time when the possibility of major disruptions seems more likely than ever (even if realized volatility remains low)? And what impact could it have on the wider market? In this episode, we speak with Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of Ambrus Group, about the return of the short vol trade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, people have been talking about the end of US dollar dominance or how some other currency could usurp its role around the world. But when it comes to global finance and trade, the dollar is as dominant as ever. Given the size of China's economy, the renminbi is considered one potential challenger. And in fact, China is making real moves on this front. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of a recent article on China's de-dollarization efforts. As she sees it, the rise of a new energy and commodity system — one that is breaking away from oil — creates the opportunity for markets that are denominated in something other than dollars. Meanwhile, China, having seen Russia get cut off from the dollar system, has an increased incentive to protect itself from a similar fate. We discuss the prospects of a major change and how China could benefit, as well as the risks. We also discuss the current state of Chinese macro.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The past few years have been pretty wild for anyone working in credit, the business of selling and trading corporate debt. First you had the pandemic, which changed working patterns across Wall Street. Then you had a surge in deal activity that had everyone working overtime to meet demand. Meanwhile, private credit's been booming and is now competing with banks' cash cow businesses of selling bonds and leveraged loans. And finally, everyone is wondering how long the credit space can withstand higher interest rates, and how frothy the underlying deals actually all. High Yield Harry, an anonymous social media account, has been chronicling it all -- making memes out of junk bond offerings, and cracking jokes about conversations with investment committees. In this episode, he talks about his experience working in both private and public credit, what it's like to run an anonymous FinTwit account, and the outlook for bonuses this year. High Yield Harry's voice is concealed in this episode to preserve anonymity. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right now, there's a lot of hope and optimism that the US economy is on a path towards a soft landing. Nonetheless, there are aspects of the current landscape that are unsettling. Inflation has come down, but there's significant debate as to why and how sustainable that move is. Geopolitics is another source of concern, given multiple ongoing conflicts. According to Jason Cummins, the chief economist and head of research at macro hedge fund Brevan Howard, we're currently seeing the demise of three different eras: the end of secular stagnation, the end of China's "get rich it all costs" era, and the end of "the end of history," as liberal democracy clashes with other competing frameworks. On this episode of the podcast, we talk about how these ideas are applied practically, in terms of trades, and also why he believes that recession is coming to the US economy in 2024.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Jan. 5, the plug door of an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 blew out mid-flight, forcing the plane into an emergency landings with a large hole in fuselage. Miraculously, nobody was hurt or killed, but it could have been a disaster. And it was the latest in the persistent string of mechanical and engineering setbacks that have plagued Boeing over the last six years. Of course, the company went into crisis mode in late 2018 and early 2019 when two different 737 Max planes crashed, killing 346 people combined. So what's wrong with Boeing? It's a crucial question, since the company is arguably America's pre-eminent manufacturer and one of the only two dominant global players in commercial jets. On this episode we speak with Bloomberg investigative reporter Peter Robison, the author of Flying Blind: The 737 MAX Tragedy and the Fall of Boeing. We discuss the company's problems, its history and culture, and how it lost its focus on safety and engineering in favor of a focus on pleasing shareholders.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the early 2010s, US shale players were producing oil like crazy, with no concerns about profitability. Then the legs were kicked out from the industry, causing a massive bust and massive oversupply. In 2021 and 2022, it looked like a very different story. Oil prices were surging and it seemed as though US players had found religion, learning how to maintain production discipline and improve profitability. But now we're in a new era that nobody saw coming: US oil production is booming. In in fact, it's at a record high. What's more, industry participants are actually making money at the same time. So how did they do it? And how did the prognosticators get things wrong? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and commodity specialist Javier Blas. We discuss the state of US supply and what it means for OPEC. We also talk about the rising tension in the Red Sea, as well as his reporting on the rise of electronic electricity trading in the European market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become a top-of-mind concern in defense and corporate circles in recent years. But what would such an attack actually look like? And what would be the economic impact to world if it actually happened? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Jennifer Welch, chief geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics and Gerard DiPippo, senior geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. Jennifer and Gerard, along with a larger team of Bloomberg economists and journalists, recently undertook a massive exercise to game out the potential impact to the global economy of a war in the Taiwan Strait — which they estimate to be around $10 trillion. That would be significantly larger than the biggest disruptions in recent memory, including the Covid pandemic and the global financial crisis, leaving virtually no part of the world unaffected. We discuss how they go about assessing the odds of each scenario and how they evaluate the possible impacts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For anyone interested in investing in the health-care space, JPMorgan's annual Health Care Conference has become one of the most important events of the year. We were not able to get to San Francisco this year, but one of our favorite Odd Lots guests, James van Geelen of CitriniResearch.com, was in attendance. He called into this week's episode of Lots More to tell us what the leading players in health care and medical technology are buzzing about right now — and he confirms that AI and GLP-1 weight loss drugs are at the top of everyone's mind."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Harley Bassman, a.k.a. the Convexity Maven, is a legend among bond investors. He worked at Merrill Lynch, where he invented the MOVE Index that measures bond market volatility, and then at Pimco. Now, after a dramatic year for US Treasuries that saw investors hit with massive amounts of volatility only for the 10-year yield to basically wind up where it was at the start of 2023, he sees things starting to get a bit more normal. With the Federal Reserve getting closer to its 2% inflation target, the yield curve is going to steepen after years of intense inversion, he says. Now a managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Bassman also talks about his favorite trades for 2024, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's legacy, and how he chooses his famously esoteric chart colors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The mood about the US economy feels very different right now than it did a year ago. At the start of 2023, almost everyone seemed to be predicting recession. Right now, there is a high degree of optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. On this special episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Lael Brainard, the director of the White House's National Economic Council. We talk about the state of the recovery, why public frustration towards the economy remains high, and what further can be done by the Biden administration to address the high cost of living.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Private credit is now so big that it's rivaling more traditional forms of lending and fueling a debate about whether this relatively new asset class poses risks to the economy. And yet, it feels like a new private credit fund is being launched daily. And even banks (the very things private credit is displacing) are getting in on the act and creating their own private credit offerings for investors. In this episode, we speak with Ben Emons, senior portfolio manager at Newedge Wealth, about the macro impact of this new form of lending. He talks about where private credit's alpha actually comes from, how it stacks up against bank lending, and what to watch out for in terms of the risks it might pose to the broader system.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A string of recent attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea to the Suez Canal have forced global shippers to once again shift how they transport goods. It's just the latest in a multi-year string of disruptions to global supply chains. It also comes just as pandemic-era supply chain stress seemed to be in the rearview mirror. So what is the geopolitical and economic impact of this latest disruption? In this episode, we speak with Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, about the impact of the attacks. We also talk about the broader logistics landscape, including the rise and fall of digital freight brokerages, and the 2023 "bloodbath" for trucking firms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's no secret that one of the fun things about Odd Lots is that it covers a lot of different topics, from the plumbing of the financial system to crimes in commodities to the ongoing impact of 100-year-old laws like the Jones Act. In this episode, Joe and Tracy collect their top 10 surprising and interesting insights gleaned from Odd Lots episodes this year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brad Jacobs has founded multiple multi-billion dollar companies in his career. He turned United Waste into part of a major trash collection conglomerate. United Rentals has been a massive winner in equipment rental for the construction industry. And XPO Logistics (which has spun out GXO and RXO) is a freight behemoth. Now, he's planning on doing it again. His new company, QXO, wants to be a billion-dollar player in the area of building products distribution. On this episode, we speak to Jacobs — who is the author of the new book, How To Make A Few Billion Dollars — about why he chose to go into this industry, his philosophy of building businesses, and how he plans to win in this space.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode, our listeners called in with their questions. They ranged from the personal, like "What happened with Tracy's coal?" to the editorial, such as "What are the big stories we want to be covering more?" Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway are the ones who get interviewed in this special holiday episode.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This time last year, almost everyone was predicting a recession would engulf the US economy in 2023. One of those forecasters was was Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. In October of last year, her model of the US economy showed a 100% chance of a recession happening in 2023. But, here we are more than 12 months later and US economic data keeps coming in relatively strong. Unemployment remains near multi-decade lows and inflation is pretty close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Yet there are still some confusing signals about the economy's overall direction, including surveys showing that many people are extremely pessimistic in their economic outlook. In this episode, we speak with Anna about how she's thinking about the conflicting signals in the US economy, why recession didn't materialize in 2023 in the way many people thought it would, and what she's looking out for next year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg News Now is a comprehensive audio report on today's top stories. Listen for the latest news, whenever you want it, covering global business stories around the world. on Apple: trib.al/Mx9TCh1 on Spotify: trib.al/T4BG8s4 Anywhere: trib.al/O4EX6BASee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When people think of publicly funded housing, they tend not to think about modern-looking apartments with all kinds of amenities. But a county in Maryland is trying to completely reframe how we think about public housing. The Montgomery County Housing Authority has been a pioneer in thinking about what the government can do in terms of accelerating housing production, even when the private sector is pulling back due to higher rates. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Zachary Marks, Senior Vice President of Real Estate at the Housing Opportunities of Commission of Montgomery County along with Paul Williams, the founder and executive director of the Center for Public Enterprise, about what the county is doing, and how the model can be applied elsewhere to create more affordable, abundant housing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week was a huge one for the soft landing camp. The inflation data came in cool and the Federal Reserve indicated its confidence that it can begin monetary tightening fairly soon. Meanwhile, baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani signed a staggering $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers that comes with a highly unusual deal structure. To break it down, we talked with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen about what it all means.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sweetgreen, the popular fast food salad restaurant, recently announced that it was eliminating all use of seed oils, in favor of higher quality oils such as avocado and olive oil. This is more costly, but the company sees it as worthwhile, given its reputation for high-quality ingredients, and growing public interest in oils. So how does a company like Sweetgreen decide what to sell? And how does it compete against the numerous other fast casual chains competing for lunchtime dollars. On this episode we speak with co-founder Nicolas Jammet about the company's strategy, how it deals with labor and commodity costs, and the future of the restaurant business. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the defining brands of the 2010s was Drybar. The popular chain of blow dry salons helped define the so-called experience economy, leading to numerous competitors and copycats. But of course, to go from a single location to a national chain is difficult in all kinds of ways, both personally and operationally. On this episode, we speak with Drybar founder Alli Webb on the experience, which she talks about in her new book titled 'The Messy Truth: How I Sold My Business for Millions but Almost Lost Myself'. We also discuss the truth about raising money, her new chain of massage studios, how to select the perfect retail location, and how operating a business is different in 2023 than it was 10 years ago. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Both the Trump administration and the Biden administration made moves to constrain China's ability to build out an advanced homegrown technology industry. But the country is still investing billions in its chip sector and there are signs that it's really starting to pay off. Huawei recently released the Mate 60 Pro smartphone, with capabilities that shocked the world in terms of its performance. So how is the country making such strides in face of technological trade restrictions? We spoke with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis and Doug O'Loughlin of Fabricated Knowledge about how much progress China is making, and the policies that are accelerating these gains.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to commercial real estate, a lot of attention is obviously paid to offices. But it's not the only sector facing strains. Apartment buildings — or multifamily residential — may also be in for trouble. For years, rates were falling and rents were rising, and owning and operating apartments was a moneymaker. Then things went into overdrive with the pandemic, thanks to plunging rates, surging rents, and an explosion in new household formation. But all of that is reversing. Rates have surged. Insurance costs have surged. Operating costs have surged. The household formation boom didn't last. And in some areas of the country — particular in some Sun Belt markets — rents are actually falling. On this episode, we speak with Lee Everett, vice president of research and strategy at Waterton, on how a multi-family deal binge in 2021 will result in a huge hangover.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's been a lot of worry over the future of commercial real estate — especially the outlook for office buildings — in light of higher interest rates and the trend towards work from home. But years ago, Wall Street was worried about a different type of CRE: shopping malls. Back in the 2010s, loans backing malls were souring fast, as customers ordered more online and major anchor tenants (like Sears) shuttered their doors. There were sites such as Deadmalls.com that tracked closures around the country, complete with apocalyptic-looking photos of empty buildings. But of course, while the overall number of shopping malls in the US has dropped, not all of them disappeared. Some have even thrived. So what can the shopping mall experience tell us about the outlook for offices and the broader commercial real estate market? On this episode we speak with Liza Crawford, a long-time CRE veteran and trader of commercial mortgage-backed bonds, who's now co-head of securitized at asset manager TCW.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Argentina has always been interesting from an economic and financial markets perspective, to put it mildly. And it's gotten even more interesting following the recent election of Javier Milei as the country's next president. Milei, whose policies could be described as radically libertarian, has floated a bunch of new ideas including getting rid of the central bank and dollarizing Argentina's economy in order to finally put an end to rampant inflation. But how realistic is this path for a nation which has spent decades burning through loans from external creditors? This week on Lots More, we chat with Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about why Argentina's issues persist and what options it has going forward.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rate banks pay on savings accounts hit the headlines earlier this year, when an outflow of deposits contributed to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders. Suddenly, the mechanics of how banks attract deposits — and what they actually do with them — became a hot topic. And even before then, there'd been a lot of discussion over why many banks hadn't passed on the surge in benchmark rates to their customers by raising rates on savings accounts. So what exactly do banks use deposits for? How do those deposits behave? And can that behavior change in different interest rate environments? In this episode we speak with Josh Younger, senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and formerly at JPMorgan, about his recent research looking at how banks pass on higher interest rates and what it means for their own exposure to interest rates.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last month, a Missouri jury found that real estate brokers colluded to artificially inflate and fix their own commissions, and as a result, ordered the National Association of Realtors to pay $1.8 billion in damages. While the ruling will be appealed, with highly uncertain damages and remedies, the case is shining a light on how participants in the real estate industry get paid, and raising the question of whether homebuyers are paying too much to their brokers. So how do brokers get paid? What are their incentives? And why haven't fees for brokers gone down, even as online platforms that compete with them have proliferated. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Andra Ghent, a finance professor at the University of Utah and a specialist in real estate who explains how the structure works currently, and how the lawsuit could ultimately change the entire business model of buying and selling homes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Going into 2023, the conventional wisdom was that a recession was likely in store. Instead, it didn't happen. What we saw is continued disinflation, even as the economic growth and the labor market have remained robust. Now going into 2024, there's growing optimism that a soft landing can be achieved. Stocks have been rallying, rates have been falling, and there's a widespread view that the Fed is done hiking. So will this come to pass? On this episode, we speak to Jan Hatzius, the top economist at Goldman Sachs, about why so many people got 2023 wrong, and why he believes the soft landing is now within reach.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Since bursting onto the scene in the mid-1990s, Magic the Gathering has become one of the most popular games of all time, with millions of players collecting cards to battle each other in an imaginary fantasy realm. But Magic's early success came with a problem: the price of the game's most powerful and rare cards surged along with its popularity. Eventually, Magic's creators worried that the game would become too expensive and was at risk of becoming a short-lived fad. So, how do you pop a bubble in collectibles without completely alienating collectors? In this episode, we speak with Richard Garfield, the creator of Magic the Gathering, and Arka Ray, a long-time game developer at Microsoft who's now CEO of Richard's new gaming studio, Popularium. They talk about the surprising parallels between MTG and central banking, what they've learned from Magic, and how they're applying those lessons to Chaos Agents, Popularium's first new gaming launch. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The effort to decarbonize the US electricity grid involves a range of technologies and power sources. Solar is part of the solution, nuclear may also be a component. Battery storage is key. And so is wind — both onshore and offshore. While there are challenges throughout the process, the offshore wind industry in particular has seen a number of setbacks lately, with the Danish company Orsted having recently made headlines for pulling out of a project slated to be built off the coast of New Jersey. Challenges range from surging commodity costs to a scarcity of vessels, the bidding process for deals, and of course, the surge in interest rates over the last two years. On this episode, we speak with Chelsea Jean-Michel, an offshore wind industry analyst at BloombergNEF, to get a clear breakdown of the problems, the degree to which these challenges threaten the larger trajectory of the industry, and the efforts to decarbonize the grid.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's no secret that the market for private credit has boomed in recent years. The surprising thing is that it has continued to do so even as interest rates have surged, defying many people's expectation that this relatively new market would suffer once an era of "loose" money comes to an end. Instead, the market for private credit in the US now rivals the size of the market for publicly-traded, junk-rated corporate bonds. But what exactly is private credit? How does it differ from broadly-syndicated stuff like leverage loans and corporate debt? How susceptible is it to higher rates? What is driving continued interest in this asset class? And what could cause it to wobble? On this episode we speak with Laura Holson of New Mountain Capital — where she manages about $9 billion across various private credit investments — about how the industry works. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Barr is a busy man these days. As the Federal Reserve's vice-chair for supervision, he's looking at ways of making the financial system safer through the next-generation of US banking regulation, known as the Basel "endgame" proposal. In July, he also unveiled the central bank's new real-time payment settlement system for banks, called FedNow, after years of development. Of course, all of this is happening at an interesting time for banking. This year saw the collapse of three banks following deposit runs. There have been big losses on bond portfolios as interest rates rise, a cyberattack that briefly unsettled the US Treasury market, and there's still a lot of general uncertainty over the direction of the US economy. In this episode, which was recorded live onstage at The Clearing House annual conference in New York, we speak to Barr about how he's thinking about the payments space, big changes to bank regulation, and the macro outlook.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Since becoming chair of the Federal Trade Commission, Lina Khan has arguably taken a novel approach to antitrust, one that incorporates broader ideas of what might actually constitute anticompetitive behavior. She's challenged huge tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft, and more recently, filed a lawsuit against a private equity firm that's been buying up anesthesiology companies across Texas. The action is noteworthy because it targets a common PE strategy of "rolling-up" multiple businesses and then consolidating them to eke out market efficiencies. So it's no wonder that PE players have called the FTC lawsuit "terrifying," or that Khan has been named "Wall Street's No. 1 enemy." In this episode, we speak with Lina Khan herself about the case, and whether the principles underlying it could be extended outside of healthcare to other industries with PE involvement. We also talk about political pushback, the FTC's research and examination process, and even... chickens.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in 2020, we spoke with Maciej Wojtal, a London-based fund manager who specializes in Iranian stocks. This market is one of the most unfamiliar in the world and most investors can't even look up where the country's shares are trading given ongoing sanctions. Of course, there's also constantly changing geopolitical risk, which has only picked up in light of the Israel-Hamas war. In this episode, we find out what's been going on with Iranian stocks in the midst of the recent upheaval and dig deeper into its overall economy after years of isolation from the Western world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this year, we saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank following a run on deposits and big losses on their portfolios of bonds. Since then, regulators have been discussing changes to existing bank regulation, prompting existential questions about the future of the US lending landscape. But there are other risks lurking in the banking system too — including those created by new technology and changing business models. In this episode, recorded live at Money 20/20 in Las Vegas, we speak with Michael Hsu, the acting comptroller of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. He talks about banking regulation, crypto contagion, the rise of banking-as-a-service (BaaS) and the supply chain of payments.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk. In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finding good, high quality childcare has been a growing challenge in the US for a long time. The pandemic only made the situation worse, with all kinds of negative knock-on effects for the economy. So what is actually involved in building out a childcare business? What are the costs? How much can it scale? Can it be made more efficient by changing regulations or subsidies? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Matt Bateman, a member of the founding team at Higher Ground Education, which operates a chain of over 120 Montessori schools across several states. We discuss how the business of early education works, what the opportunities are, and the constraints on making childcare more abundant and affordable for everyone.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.