Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Matt Gertken, chief strategist for global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research, says investors should be factoring in geopolitics and the upcoming U.S. election now, because current uncertainty could cause a downturn "soon, at any time." But once the election is sorted out, whoever wins — and no matter the policies they pursue — is facing the inevitabilities of the economic cycle. Gertken is clear that he doesn't see the kind of economic imbalances that would cause a market cataclysm akin to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, but troubles in China over politics there — plus deflation and a troubled housing market — could drag the U.S. and other international economies into a bigger tailspin. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the infrastructure space with his ETF of the Week, and Indrani De, global head of investment research for FTSE Russell discusses the upcoming Russell Reconstitution — the exercise of changing benchmark indexes to avoid surprises — and what the current effort (which becomes final on Friday) reveals about the stock market and the breadth of growth now.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management thinks the current protracted economic cycle "will end the same way that almost every cycle has," with high interest rates triggering trouble before rate cuts and a downturn that resets the market and repositions it for growth. Roland is hopeful the economy can avoid a hard landing — and she notes that heightened government spending that has helped the current economy could keep it going longer — but says she is watching for when initial jobless claims start to rise, because that will be the signal to get defensive, and while she says it could happen soon, it could extend as far out as 2026. Justin Conway, vice president of investment partnerships at Calvert Impact talks about Community Investment Notes — and specifically the new Cut Carbon Notes — as a way of diversifying income while supporting underserved communities. Cassandra Happe discusses WalletHub's 2024 Credit Card Rewards Survey, which showed that more than 60 percent of Americans think that card bonuses encourage overspending, but where nearly 4 in 5 respondents said that higher inflation has made them more interested in earning credit-card rewards. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about the impact and benefits of diversifying into a fund that owns popular stocks when you already hold those companies through index funds.

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, expects the market to start a new leg up and rally, but he notes that it has to go through a shake up and get to where rate cuts start before that uptick starts in earnest. Ladner notes he is "a whole lot more confident about the next six months than the next six weeks," noting that current conditions — with steady or falling interest rates and growth in earnings — "doesn't translate into bad markets." While those conditions don't always portend bull markets, those conditions do tend to drive markets higher. Jeffrey DeMaso, editor at The Independent Vanguard Adviser, discusses Vanguard PRIMECAP and PRIMECAP Core, two classic growth funds that were closed to new investors for 20 and 15 years respectively; Vanguard just re-opened the funds and DeMaso discusses who they are right for. Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the site's latest Emergency Savings Report, which showed that nearly 60 percent of Americans are uncomfortable with their level of emergency savings. Plus, in the Market Call, Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products at AAII talks about buying growth stocks now.

Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says the market will take a break of as much as 10 percent, and he is looking for that kind of setback before getting back to being fully invested. That said, he expects the economy to pivot out of slowdown mode and "into a more sustainable growth path, but probably not until later this year or early in 2025." David Trainer, founder/president of New Constructs, puts a popular consumer name into the Danger Zone, Jeff Lambert of Tiicker — a service that helps companies reward investors for participating in proxy votes — discusses the firm's recent survey which shows that more than three-quarters of investors might pay attention to and actually vote their proxies if there was a tangible benefit to getting it done. Plus, in the Market Call, Ed Shill, managing director at the Wealth Enhancement Group talks about how investors should go looking for individual stocks at times like now when the market is "overbought," and among his surprising picks for these times is troubled airplane maker Boeing, which he describes as an enormous bargain as it tries to regain lift after recent operational troubles.

Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says that summers tend to be more volatile and while the market has been up seven of the last eight summers, those gains have had to overcome significant drawdowns, and he thinks that pattern will repeat with an "overbought" market now. Adam still expects two rate cuts, which should avert a recession, although the economy will likely struggle and will be setting up a rougher year in 2025. Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, discusses the benefits and flaws of applying rules-based investing to closed-end funds, noting that changes in the industry have forced changes on a rules-based index of the closed-end fund space that was created by VettaFi, and how that is impacting the holdings and asset allocation for investors choosing to use fund-of-funds rather than to build their own portfolio of individual closed-end issues. Rachel Perez discusses a study done for Preply.com which showed that financial management is one of the three areas where Americans most wish they could develop more personal discipline, and Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, brings his "five lens approach to stock research' to the Market Call.

Howard Yaruss, professor at New York University and author of "Understandable Economics," says the Federal Reserve should "consider a small rate cut, as soon as possible," in part because the central bank has done a good job — as measured by certain inflation measures — in at least coming close to its target levels, but also because other central bankers around the globe have started to cut, and there could be some issues arising if U.S. monetary policy is out of sync with the rest of the world. Yaruss sees the economy mostly avoiding significant recession and downturn until at least 2025. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes out the risk scale by picking a fund that targets junkier junk bonds as his "ETF of the Week," Cassandra Happe talks about the latest survey from WalletHub which showed that commuters and long drivers are more upset with inflation than consumers with large families and bigger grocery bills, who are more focused on rising food prices, plus Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Research, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Dedicated value investor John Buckingham, editor of The Prudent Speculator and principal portfolio manager at Kovitz Investment Group, says that the long run of the Magnificent Seven has not made it impossible for value investors to hold some of them, noting that while the very hottest don't meet the definition of value, other tech giants like Alphabet and Meta Platforms are trading at levels that shouldn't scare the bargain hunters away. He discusses his buying and trimming strategy in the Market Call. Ebony Reed and Louise Story, co-authors of "Fifteen Cents on the Dollar: How Americans Made the Black-White Wealth Gap" discuss how Americans view wealth — and often confuse it for income — and how that it will take well over a century, barring legislative progress, to make any significant progress that levels the wealth field for all Americans. Plus, Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning at Charles Schwab discusses the firm's eighth annual Modern Wealth Survey, which showed that More than 60% of Americans feel they are in a better position to achieve their financial goals than the generations that came before them.

When Chuck turned 62 last week, he became eligible to claim Social Security benefits, and while he always expected to wait as long as possible before collecting, his own health history, his recent marriage and the passing of some friends of similar ages prompted him to revisit the entire Social Security claiming decision, because deciding when to claim benefits — and how much to let them grow or how to handle them if you take them early — may be the single most important financial decision most Americans ever make, with their financial well-being for the rest of their lives at stake. Nathaniel Popper, author of "The Trolls of Wall Street: How the Outcasts and Insurgents Are Hacking The Markets," discusses his new book and how the traders of meme stocks and the denizens of message boards have gotten better and smarter and have been learning from their mistakes in ways that older generations never really did, and how investing is a different game to the many young people who are getting into it earlier than ever before. Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs flips things around this week, and puts a brand-name investment bank into the "Attractive Zone," noting that while many companies overstate earnings, this one has gone the other way, making it a bargain now.

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that as the market settles into long-term grown and moderating inflation, it's a good environment for financial markets to broaden out, where he expects more normal relationships between domestic and international stocks and large-company and small-cap stocks. "The market is never about seven stocks or 10 stocks," Sanchez says, which is "a healthy reminder as we look ahead to make sure your portfolio is diversified ... and not to get too narrow." Speaking of diversification, in the Market Call, Kevin Rendino, chief executive officer at 180 Degree Capital talks about investing in micro-cap and small-cap stocks through the lens of an activist investor. And speaking of activist investors, The NAVigator segment features Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services — who follows what he calls a "discount-capture" investment style in closed-end funds — discussing the moves that fund companies have made to enhance yields, narrow discounts and discourage activist investors, and describes them all as neutral or positive for investors, so long as they understand the impacts on income streams and total return.

Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn, says that "this obsession with Fed policy is misplaced," noting that government spending has helped prop up the economy and hidden weakness in the economy. He's concerned about "overall slippage" in the economy; as an investor who factors the news into his investment choices, McIntyre is staying away from retailers and most financial names, but is gravitating toward utilities and energy producers, as well as companies that are part of the artificial intelligence space without necessarily being the big players. Speaking of the Fed, JoAnne Bianco, investment strategist at BondBloxx, says that she sees real resilience in the U.S. economy, which is why it has rolled along while market expectations moved from multiple rate cuts this year to where it now expects just a single rate reduction. In this environment -- where Bianco is not expecting a significant uptick in defaults caused by high rates -- she likes credit the most among fixed-income opportunities. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi picks a hedged-equity fund investing in Japan as his ETF of the Week.

Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade corporate bonds at Payden & Rygel, says that companies prepared for the high-interest rate environment in advance, in ways that have allowed the bond market to avoid the rise in defaults that typically hits during rate hikes, but that also contributed to stronger economic growth, which has allowed inflation to be sticky without a lot of pain to the economy. It's part of why the inverted yield curve hasn't indicated a recession yet, and Trevithick thinks the Fed should be able to pull off a soft landing for the economy if it starts cutting late this year or potentially in 2025. Cassandra Happe discusses WalletHub's just-released 2024 Social Media Shopping Survey, which found that most consumers say social media is contributing to their bad spending habits and mistakes. JoAnne Feeney, partner and portfolio manager at Advisors Capital Management, brings her top-down approach to the Market Call.

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs, says that he has no problem with higher-than-planned inflation levels so long as nominal economic growth is there. "Investors don't really profit off of Federal Reserve changes," he says, "they profit off of growth in the economy, and that's what we should be focused on." Gene Peroni, founder of Peroni Portfolio Advisors, says that "The market is sensing something quite significantly positive on the horizon, based on its trends." He expects economic strength and rising earnings to keep growing for roughly nine months or more, and says that downturns and setbacks will remain buying opportunities for now. Plus, Sam Burns, chief strategist at Mill Street Research, brings his earnings-expectation driven style of investing to the Market Call.

Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners, says that the U.S. economy remains strong, there are some headwinds facing the stock market and that investors should go back to basics — diversifying across borders and industries and looking for investments they will hold long-term. Mills made it clear that he's optimistic for the long term, noting that investors are more likely to be thrown off by the problems that are not yet obvious — "It's not the monster in the closet that gets you," he says, "it's the one under the bed that you're not paying attention to that is going to get you" — so they need to have a time horizon that looks beyond those issues. Ed Slott, the founder of IRAhelp.com, returns to the show to discuss his new book, out this week, "The Retirement Savings Time Bomb Ticks Louder," suggesting that converting traditional retirement accounts to tax-free Roth accounts is going to be worth it for most investors, noting that paying the taxes now is a form of insurance against Congress changing laws and raising taxes in the future. Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, talks about "overstated street earnings," and shows why the stock price of NRG Energy is dangerous relative to the real value of the company.

Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF, says there's "a lot of stock in a lot of weak hands," which tends to lead to a serious correction, and he says the market is due for a 15 to 25 percent pullback. Further, he notes that bear market corrections tend to "be more significant" in a high-rate market like the one being faced today; Lamensdorf notes that while the market is near record highs and has gone up sharply this year, so too has his bear-market fund, highlighting just how thin the bullish sentiment and market breadth are. Lamensdorf says that investing in the Magnificent Seven stocks has been great stock picking in a market that has not favored stock pickers, highlighting that this "is a great long-short stock-picking environment right now." Dave Lamb, head of closed-end funds at Nuveen, says there is a "much more aggressive form of activism today than what we saw years ago," driven mostly by discount-arbitrage opportunities rather than any evaluation of a fund's management. He discusses what fund sponsors, including Nuveen, are doing to make closed-end funds more attractive to the public, but less appealing to activist shareholders. Plus Daniel Dusina, chief investment officer at Blue Chip Partners in Michigan, discusses "underappreciated quality stocks" in the Market Call.

Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses a just-released survey which shows that Americans are getting fed up with being asked to leave a tip at everything from a self-service checkout counter to a pick-your-own strawberry farm. The survey showed that nearly 3 in 5 American adults have at least one negative view of tipping, with a surprising number being upset enough that they have stopped tipping even at sit-down restaurants. Bruce Kahn, lead portfolio manager at Shelton Sustainable Equity Fund discusses how ESG investing has moved past simple screening techniques, but for all the good of sustainability it still boils down to valuations. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes small-cap with his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers a question from a listener who wants to know if the long-time favorite investment of her father is something she should hold onto now that she has inherited it.

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, says that the Federal Reserve should be cutting rates now rather than waiting, so the central bank will be deserving of the blame if we get a recession in 2025. Jones worries that central bankers have become "too spooked by inflation," and says they should be less cautious and more forward-looking, and that kind of action could be reflected in one or two rate cuts before the end of the year. Historian William Hogeland discusses his new book, "The Hamilton Scheme: An Epic Tale of Money and Power in the American Founding," and brings modern context to Alexander Hamilton by noting whether either major political party -- as well as the wildly popular Broadway play -- actually reflect the historical measure of the man. Plus, Andrew Guillette, vice president of global insights at Broadridge Financial Solutions, discusses the firm's massive research study into the investing habits of 40 million U.S. retail individual investors, with the trends showing that individual stocks have become increasingly popular while traditional mutual funds have permanently fallen out of favor.

Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, sees storm clouds on the horizon for the market and the economy, but his outlook remains benign, suggesting that a well-diversified portfolio will withstand heightened volatility for the remainder over the year. He says we have experienced a muted, rolling downturn and doesn't see a full-blown recession happening. By comparison, Avi Gilburt, founder of the Elliott Wave Trader, entered the year calling for the market to reach record highs no later than the second quarter — which it has — but then to turn into the start of a full-blown bear market that will last years and bring the Standard & Poor's 500 down by well over 50 percent. Gilburt says that the market remains on track for that. In the middle of that kind of disagreement, it's hard for investors to know what to do, and Andy Reed, head of investor behavior research at Vanguard, discusses research into certain biases that are leading most investors to make mistakes that result in diminished gains and missed opportunities.

Joe Boyle, Fixed Income Investment Strategist for the Hartford Funds, says that the re-set in fixed-income after rates popped up in 2022 and 2023 have made it unimportant to bond investors whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates any time soon, because the yields should remain strong. That said, Boyle said he was looking further out the yield curve — especially is it looks likely to normalize after two years of being inverted — because adding longer, high-quality bonds will pay off when the rate environment changes. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, put EventBrite — a stock that had been in the Danger Zone right after it went public in 2018 — back into the Danger Zone now, Jaime Dunaway-Seale discusses a Clever Real Estate survey showing that nearly half of all recent homebuyers say they feel over their head financially having made the purchase, and Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Barrack Yard Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders' Almanac — chief investment officer at Hirsch Holdings — says that calendar effects and seasonal sell signals may be indicating that it's time to "sell in May and go away," but he says long-term investors have plenty of reason to remain bullish enough thanks to election effects and more that investors "have no need to go away," so long as they can put up with the market's increased chop over the summer. Hirsch noted that the election effects suggest that the market will benefit from having a second-term president — regardless of who wins in November — but that there tends to be weakness in the first two years of any lame-duck president, which means he may take a more cautionary stance once the election passes in November. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — talks about the good and bad in recent industry trends that have fund sponsors taking steps to keep a lid on discounts and to reduce a fund's potential attractiveness to activist investors, as well as the trend towards managed payouts and how investors should size up distributions that might be connected more to marketing materials than to what a fund actually can deliver. In the Market Call, Tom Plumb, president and chief investment officer at the Plumb Funds, covers growth stocks with disruptive technologies and business plans.

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, is doubling down on a forecast he made before 2024 started, in which he said the outcome of the year for the market and economy was not "all about the Fed." He says the Federal Reserve's grip on the economy has eased, largely because the long end of the yield curve is free from the tight grip of the Federal Reserve. With the long end of the yield curve driving equity prices, Hyman thinks the market can find more room to run, and that's what he is expecting, although he does think there is an economic downturn with a soft landing in our near future. Hyman notes that valuations remain difficult, though he explains how using equal-weighted funds should pay off a little better moving forward. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns towards an all-purpose commodity fund for his "ETF of the Week," Cassandra Happe, an analyst at WalletHub, discusses how consumers expect to use credit cards to pay for their summer travel and how they can help themselves with the right credit-card deal. And in the Market Call, Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund talks about absolute value investing at a point when the market is near record highs.

Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects consumers to keep spending and to help power the economy through at least the end of the year without a recession, but he notes that if the Federal Reserve ultimately decides that it's going to 2 percent inflation or bust, there will be a bust for the consumer and the economy, with the current party ending in a potentially protracted period of struggles. Jack Nelson, portfolio manager of the global emerging markets sustainability strategy at Stewart Investors, says that while many investors are avoiding China, it's important to not be so fearful as to miss out on the opportunity that a number of companies there represent, due to valuations that are more compelling in much hotter markets like India. Sarah Foster, analyst at Bankrate.com discusses the site's latest survey showling that while nearly nine of 10 Americans know what financial success looks like in their life, only one in four think they will achieve it. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about whether it's time to convert traditional long-term retirement savings into Roth IRA accounts.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, notes that the economic news and growth remain so strong that "the odds of recession are quite low."Detrick notes that 10 of 11 sectors in the Standard & Poor's 500 are higher year-to-date, which is why his firm is overweight in equities generally, and has been adding to financials and industrials in particular. Detrick says there are several disconnects between hard and soft data -- soft data shows low consumer confidence but hard data shows strong retail sales -- and he is trusting the hard data to see the economy continue to broaden out for the remainder of the year. Also on the show, Chuck explains how the new securities settlement standard of "T+1" will affect individual investors, and while he explains that the changes are minimal and won't be noticed by a lot of everyday investors, he also lays out that virtually every stock, bond and ETF trade moving forward will be impacted by the new rules. Plus, in the Market Call, long-time CNBC contributor Ron Insana, the chief executive officer at iFi AI, showcases his platform's technology, which brings together artificial intelligence and stock market data to decide which securities are likely to go on big runs in the next week, month and year.

Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull, says that the market is showing signs of topping out, though he thinks that the building downturn now will likely be short and not too steep before a rally again chases record highs. Bishop notes that "all of the bears have been destroyed," so there are few investors betting against the market, which is typically a sign that trouble is ahead. Bishop notes that those bearish investors were tired of their losses, and that betting against the market now would be risky, but he says there is more downside risk than potential upside right now. Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that as the market adjusts to the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts as long as possible, it will set up the market for a better second half of the year. Stephen Minar, head of closed-end funds at BlackRock, discusses how discounts drive money flows into closed-end funds, but they also attract activist investors whose actions may be harmful to others. BlackRock has created some initiatives to fight back, reducing discounts but hoping to increase a closed-end fund's consistency. And in the Market Call, David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel returns, and is the only guest who tackles the ticker list by simply addressing the first five names on it.

Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Wealth Management, says that while the economy has been stronger than investors expected entering the year — and isn't likely to have a sudden reversal — investors need to heed the warning signs and balance optimism with caution, remaining properly diversified. He notes that some international markets are particularly well-positioned right now in terms of valuations compared to domestic equities, particularly in hot industries like artificial intelligence, where the bargains are more with global stocks. Vanneman also likes real assets and discusses the importance of adding alternatives to generate both returns and stability. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, talks about adding international bonds to the portfolio mix with his pick for the ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about properly selecting bonds and bond funds for a retirement portfolio, and Les Rubin of Main Street Economics discusses his new book, "Why You Should Give A Damn About Economics: The US Debt and Your Future."

Gina Sanchez, chief market strategist at Lido Advisors, says that the stock market is changing its mind so fast that every month investors have a new focus. She notes that the market has gone from favoring value to growth to defensive growth and kept rotating to where it is now back to growth, but she says that can't continue for long because the current level of "productive inflation" will stop working, leading to a slower economy in the second half of the year. While she doesn't expect a hard landing — and in fact expects a long, slow period of sluggishness — it will create volatility and conditions that favor quality, profitability and cash flow. Jennifer White discusses the latest J.D. Power research on consumer financial health, which showed modest improvement despite headline issues over inflation, although there is some concern that it's still a small group of consumers claiming improving circumstances. Plus, Kevin Walkush, portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, talks about quality growth stocks — with an eye towards the artificial intelligence companies that deserve the "quality" label — in the Market Call, and Chuck tells the story of Bitcoin Pizza Day, and what happened to the guys who in 2010 exchanged two pizzas valued at roughly $25 for a little more than $40 in bitcoin, which today is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — digs into his research on just how much election results actually matter for the market, and Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, talks in the Market Call about investing in disruptive stocks.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says investors need to be watching for issues like liquidity being pulled from the system and credit spreads widening and other signs that there may be trouble ahead. He says the market -- as witnessed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 last Friday -- remains driven by momentum and investor behavior and fear of missing out, but once there are strong signs that conditions are faltering and momentum is slowing, there will be a downturn, with a slowdown starting later this year though it may not turn into a full recession until 2025. Ted Benna, recognized as "The father of the 401k," discusses America's retirement and savings crisis and details what he calls the "Wheat Grain Incentive Plan," that would revolutionize the way millions of Americans build savings, plus Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts payment-technology company Marqeta (ticker MQ) in the Danger Zone.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that gold historically has a quick bounce after the first cut in a rate-cutting cycle, and he expects to see that gain in gold stocks — a fast uptick and then strong results lasting at least a year — whenever the Federal Reserve moves next. Winmill says that the market can keep climbing the wall of worry for a little while, but he expects struggles once current momentum fades. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the technical indicators are suggesting that the Standard and Poor's 500 can hit 5,600 by the mid-fall, though he warns that there may be a setback all the way down to 4,800 once the uptrend ends. Charles Lewis Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management, says that the big discounts investors have seen in closed-end funds will continue, and he likes real estate and term funds as great values for investors to consider now. In the Market Call, Christopher Sargent, portfolio manager at Bradley, Foster & Sargent, makes his debut talking stocks.

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that a no-landing situation for the economy will create problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to hitting inflation targets, and for consumers who are renting, buying cars and more. Thomas noted that the current two-speed economy features a large group of consumers and businesses that have been less interest-rate sensitive and who have benefitted from current conditions, while a smaller group is struggling with high rates, as shown by higher delinquency rates and trouble signs. Thomas says that if the Fed can't get inflation down, the central banker will probably continue its course "until they break something." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a fund tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 — layered with a covered-call strategy to generate income — his pick for ETF of the Week, and Loreen Gilbert, chief executive officer at WealthWise Financial Services, talks stocks during her maiden voyage in the Market Call.

Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says the current market conditions have made him "much more prone to let my winners run," and that investors should not take a market pushing to all-time highs as some sort of sell signal because in most times -- including today -- new highs are a positive, even if they inspire some nervousness and fear of new heights. Tilson says that investors should focus less on headlines and more on what drives markets, namely a strong economy and growing corporate profits. Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study -- done in honor of Mental Health Awareness Month -- which found that nearly half of American adults say money at least occasionally has a negative impact on their mental health. In the Money Life Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund discusses stocks.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says talk of stagflation and other potential economic woes is overblown, and that the economic data suggests that the economy will overcome the short-term headline distractions to perform reasonably well, even if consumers and investors feel dissatisfied living through periods of higher inflation and lower investment returns. He says the profitability and performance of companies are broadening, and that's happening right now, which should make investors bullish. Also looking at recent market highs as a good sign is Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, who thinks the market will go higher and get through some minor corrections this year, but who sees technical indicators signalling much more significant trouble coming next year and beyond. Plus, research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a study on which cars convey the most "status" to their buyers, and whether there is any real value -- rather than just higher insurance bills -- that comes from the status given those fancy cars.

Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, says investors have pushed the Federal Reserve into a box, to where central bankers will now be cutting rates into an environment of rising unemployment and slowing gross domestic product growth. Historically, he notes, the stock market fears those conditions rather than rewarding it, which means the market will be sorting out that problem through higher volatility while it waits for more certainty from the economy. VanCronkhite says investors should build protection into their portfolios by owning businesses with great balance sheets, moving away from the Magnificent 7 stocks -- which he says will stop moving as a group -- to take advantage of the economic strength that should result in better long-term results once the market digests the Fed's eventual moves sometime in 2025. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisists DoorDash in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent rally is the market betting that it can get better financing and last longer, even though he believes the company remains a zombie stock that will run out of cash in two years time. In the Market Call, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks about his approach to this market, which is heavy on technicals and using stops to buy issues where the trend is turning while getting out of stocks that are moving against the tide.

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that the market has reached a "Maalox Moment," where investors want to be invested but are nervous about the potential for a big drop, and they have to be willing to ride out their choices or they should be taking the safe alternatives of higher yields in fixed income. Stringfellow says that classic buy-and-hold investors need to be more active to feel comfortable today, noting "Just sit back and relax doesn't count." Buck Klintworth, senior portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market's technical indicators are not showing "the major shift that scares investors" in the cards for the rest of this year; Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, says homeowners "did a really good job of locking in low mortgage rates when they were low, and of locking in low fixed rates," which made them the big winners of the rising rate environment, which has created opportunities for bond and mortgage investors now. Plus, financial adviser Mike Salierno discusses the latest data released in Northwestern Mutual's 2024 Planning & Progress Study, which shows that Americans now believe they'll need $1.46 million to retire.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — says that America's fiscal and monetary policies are sending mixed signals, "driving our car hitting the gas and the brakes at the same time." Fiscally, it's the gas, as shown by economic numbers, but the Federal Reserve is hitting the brakes, which makes it hard to figure out what's next, contributing to recent market whipsaw moves. Dover says current conditions suggest that investors should get out of cash and into assets that will do well when the market declines, because he expects a mild downturn and soft market at least until there is more certainty on direction. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi looks at a trendy new actively managed core bond fund for his "ETF of the Week," noting that he thinks that active management for fixed income makes sense in today's interest rate environment, noting that managers can flex into different bond types to make the most of current conditions. In the Market Call, Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, makes his debut, talking individual stocks.

Mike Thompson, portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, sees heightened volatility ahead for the market, but says that recent concerns on big-picture items have seemed to ebb, giving the stock market room to run here. In the Big Interview, Thompson explains his firm's "risk-responsive investing" approach and the tactics it is drawn to in current economic and market conditions. Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA, brings his firm's forward-looking, short-term ratings system to the Market Call, and Chuck takes on the latest statements from best-selling author and perma-bear Robert Kiyosaki, who over the weekend was saying that the new crash has begun and gave suggestions -- that Chuck disagrees with -- on how to profit from the massive downturn he is expecting.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that she sees the stock market grinding higher through heightened volatility for the rest of the year as the Federal Reserve pushes rate cuts out to December or into 2025. Still, she expects "another shoe to fall" with the economy and the market, though that trouble likely is coming next year or beyond. By comparison, Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, sees the market retesting record high levels in fairly short order, but he worries that the longer-term technical indicators suggest "a rocky two, three, four years" ahead, though he remains positive that equities will be up a decade from now, so that long-term investors should remain in the market through the trouble ahead. Plus, in the Market Call, Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group — publishers of the No-Load Fund*X — talks about riding the wave of what has been winning, and discusses how the winners and losers appear ready to hold their positions for a while longer before conditions change.

Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says we are seeing a tug of war between the forces lifting the economy -- powered by excitement over artificial intelligence -- facing the stubbornness of inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone rate cuts as long as possible, weakening the market. Kourkafas says he prefers the strong economy over rate cuts because it builds a strong foundation for corporate profits, which ultimately will drive markets higher, overcoming the short-term impact inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are having on the market now. Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner -- long-time columnist at USA Today and most recently financial editor at AARP -- talks about his recent decision to retire, mostly, and what went into making it and what he learned from working with seniors facing the end of their working lives. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits Express, which has gone from bad to worse since it was a Danger Zone pick a few years ago, having recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Trainer doesn't see the company being saved in the court, expecting it to complete the journey to zero.

Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "structured protection ETFs," in which a fund owner gets exposure to a market index but gives up some upside potential in exchange for protection against losses. The funds sound like a substitute for stocks but, akin to equity index products and other financial hybrids built to avoid losses, are a more suitable substitute for bank savings accounts and other cash investments. Kaufman says the products are a reflection of the times, where many investors are tired of the volatility and nervous for the future and want some assurance that they will not lose money in the market. Also on the show, Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- which runs the Private Shares Fund -- discusses how late-stage private venture companies are a real opportunity now, coming off of two years in which private shares have struggled and the market for taking those companies public has been sluggish. He also discusses Destiny Tech 100, an exchange-traded closed-end portfolio that has been trading like a meme stock, with massive gains -- but also nose-bleed falls -- since its debut in March. Plus, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses ETFs in the Market Call.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the Channel Capital Research Institute -- author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" -- says that Jerome Powell is currently trying to live "the financial version of the Hippocratic oath, which says 'First, do no harm.'" Roberts says that Powell is trying to adjust expectations gradually, which is why Wednesday's statement from the Fed boss was benign, trying to play both sides, setting expectations at one rate cut this year but with the potential to avoid that if the data doesn't demand it. In the ETF of the Week interview, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, takes a young, small fund that has struggled out of the gate -- X-trackers US Green infrastructure Select Equity -- and makes the case for making it a long-term holding and, in the Market Call, Stephen Dodson of The Bretton Fund talks about how his style of business value investing works in current market conditions.

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that there will not be a recession -- or anything resembling it -- this year, but he makes it clear the can't be said for 2025, once the election cycle and concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and inflation staying around longer play out. Blank says he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be pressured into making rate cuts, but notes that it could make a cut in the fall leading into the election if the data suggests one is appropriate, but he doesn't see the central bank moving off of its plan to get inflation back to the 2 percent level. When that plays out in that recession that's coming for next year, Blank says it could help to minimize the duration of the downturn. Also on the show, Adam Ruben, vice president of the Economic Security Project, discusses the group's survey of consumers using the IRS Direct File pilot program, noting that the new filing methods drew a lot of consumer interest but also a lot of praise by the 140,000-plus taxpayers who used the system across 12 states. He expects the IRS to dramatically expand the program in the near future, given the strength of the results this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management talks growth stocks.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that the years after peak inflation and peak tightening tend to be good for markets, and he expects that to continue with a market and economy that he thinks can avoid big downturns. Levitt says the economy never got the recession many people expected because the economy didn't have a lot of excesses to create bubbles or big issues, but also because trouble came in spots, rolling into one area without taking over the whole landscape. As a result, Levitt's major guideposts for recession haven't been flashing warning signs, though he acknowledges that the next six months will likely rise and fall almost entirely based on the actions of the Federal Reserve and how the market responds to them. Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says he expects the market to recapture the record highs it was at earlier this year, with a year-end target of 5400 for the Standard & Poor's 500. Plus Ken Laudan, portfolio manager, Buffalo Large Cap Growth Fund discusses innovative, high-quality, durable large-cap growth companies in the Market Call.

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an inverse relation where rates staying high would be bad for equities, while rate cuts would be a big plus. Also on the show: Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association, discusses the Beer Purchasers' Index reaching its highest levels since 2021, portending a strong summer not only for beer drinkers but for the economy; David Trainer of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund into the Danger Zone, and Mac Sykes, portfolio manager for Gabelli, talks financial stocks in the Market Call.

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official government levels when looked at in more updated, modern ways to evaluate consumer prices, noting that shelter costs are dramatically overstated in traditional measures, skewing the numbers. All of this creates a positive long-term outlook, Schwartz said. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market's technical picture suggests a downturn in the offing, but likely nothing beyond a 5 percent decline before the market resumes pursuit of record highs. Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn says that record discount levels for municipal bond closed-end funds, coupled with attractive yields on those funds, are creating real opportunities for income investors. In the Market Call, Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks about putting a social investment lens over a market view to select stocks.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate and force the Federal Reserve to increase rates, conditions should remain benign and comfortable for investors. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) his pick for "ETF of the Week," and in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund, talks about finding the right forward-looking opportunities in markets now.

Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for the Baird Strategic Municipal Bond fund, says that investors should take the Federal Reserve at its word, expecting interest rates to have peaked, anticipate a cut but don't expect it to happen until the numbers warrant it. That may not happen until late in the year or into 2025. Meanwhile, he notes investors are getting strong returns -- particularly in muni bond funds where there are additional tax benefits from investing -- though not getting paid to take on extra credit risk, even though defaults and delinquencies haven't gone up dramatically with rates staying higher for longer. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that Americans aren't just planning to go far and wide this summer, they're planning to go into debt to get there; Chuck goes "Off The News" with the Department of Labor's release of new fiduciary guidelines for investment managers, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds talks small-cap technology in the Market Call.

Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager on the global, international and emerging markets small-cap teams at Seven Canyons Advisors, says that "near-shoring" or "China plus one" supply-chain diversification will "be the dominant force in international markets over the next decade." Kutusov says that geopolitical pressure and rising labor costs have pushed companies out of China or made them open additional capabilities elsewhere, most notably in India and Mexico. Plus, international interest rates are higher than in the U.S., leaving places like India, Mexico and Indonesia with economies that have room to ease rates and accelerate future growth. Also on the show, R. Jisung Park, whose new book "Slow Burn: The Hidden Costs of a Warming World" digs into the economic impacts of global warming events, plus we revisit a recent chat on the market's technicals with Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research.

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but no more than twice this year and in September at the earliest, and he says it's increasingly likely the moves won't start until 2025. The amazing thing, Wren says, is that the stock market got to where it was flirting with record highs despite investors adjusting from six projected cuts this year down to potentially none. He says market valuations are high and he expects them to give in to economic pressures to move lower, but long-term he's positive on equities, liking industrials, health care and energy stocks while trimming technology and communication services, the big winners from 2023. David Trainer, president at New Constructs revisits pet-insurance company Trupanion, a Zombie stock that he says may be worth shorting as its business model is flawed and unlikely to be turned around. Plus, Larry Swedroe, chief research officer at Buckingham Wealth Partners, discusses his new book, "Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing."

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that two wars have had less impact on markets that many observers have expected because the market has recognized that geopolitical events require a direct tie to earnings before they can truly dampen gains. Because of that -- but also because of issues he sees with the domestic economy -- Papic says investors who are giving up on international markets and getting their diversification by overweighting U.S. multinational stocks are making a mistake. In a wide-ranging interview, Papic notes that he expects to be bullish right up to Election Day in November, but the results of the vote -- particularly if they give either presidential candidate the control of Congress to boot -- could have broad and dramatic impacts on the market in 2025 and beyond. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors reviews the first quarter results for closed-end funds, interval funds and business-development companies, noting that it was a strong period with more than 90 percent of closed-end issues making money in the first three months of 2024, although municipal bond funds continued their lagging ways. Plus, Chuck gets to talk about his childhood fantasy car with University of Toronto professor Dimitry Anastakis, whose new book is "Dream Car: Malcolm Bricklin's Fantastic SV1 and the End of Industrial Modernity."

David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large Cap and Small Cap Financials funds, says that investors should not expect the classic thinking of lower rates equals higher margins and bank stocks go up, because the math may not work that way this time, which is why he is hoping rates stay where they are for longer. Ellison says that the Federal Reserve should wait until something about the economy breaks if it wants to help the banking sector, which needs to go through its classic cycles, which have been stunted by Fed actions over the last few years. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also weighs in on the financial services and banking sector, but in his case it's by turning to an insurance fund as his pick for ETF of the Week. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of the Independent Vanguard Adviser, discusses not only his manager-centric fund-selection style but also his recent foray into -- and now out of -- bitcoin.

Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors, says he's not particularly worried about what two current wars and other issues are doing to the economy ad stock market now, but that his real worry is federal policies in terms of fiscal expenditures. "To me, that doesn't look sustainable, and that looks more like an emerging market than, basically, the leader of the free world." He says most of the conditions are in place in the U.S. for an inflationary medium-term outlook, though he does think that the U.S. market should be able to avoid a depression after the current concerns get sorted out, but that conditions will feel like the 1970s, a period of high inflation and economic difficulty. Also on the show, Nick Young, chief experience officer at Money Pickle, talks about the question that savers should be asking their advisers regularly that most ignore, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the troubles that consumers have encountered as they have increasingly gravitated towards using "Buy Now, Pay Later" programs. In the Market Call, Joe Rinaldi, president/chief financial officer of Quantum Financial Advisors, covers both stocks and exchange-traded funds.