Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders' Almanac — chief investment officer at Hirsch Holdings — says that calendar effects and seasonal sell signals may be indicating that it's time to "sell in May and go away," but he says long-term investors have plenty of reason to remain bullish enough thanks to election effects and more that investors "have no need to go away," so long as they can put up with the market's increased chop over the summer. Hirsch noted that the election effects suggest that the market will benefit from having a second-term president — regardless of who wins in November — but that there tends to be weakness in the first two years of any lame-duck president, which means he may take a more cautionary stance once the election passes in November. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — talks about the good and bad in recent industry trends that have fund sponsors taking steps to keep a lid on discounts and to reduce a fund's potential attractiveness to activist investors, as well as the trend towards managed payouts and how investors should size up distributions that might be connected more to marketing materials than to what a fund actually can deliver. In the Market Call, Tom Plumb, president and chief investment officer at the Plumb Funds, covers growth stocks with disruptive technologies and business plans.

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, is doubling down on a forecast he made before 2024 started, in which he said the outcome of the year for the market and economy was not "all about the Fed." He says the Federal Reserve's grip on the economy has eased, largely because the long end of the yield curve is free from the tight grip of the Federal Reserve. With the long end of the yield curve driving equity prices, Hyman thinks the market can find more room to run, and that's what he is expecting, although he does think there is an economic downturn with a soft landing in our near future. Hyman notes that valuations remain difficult, though he explains how using equal-weighted funds should pay off a little better moving forward. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns towards an all-purpose commodity fund for his "ETF of the Week," Cassandra Happe, an analyst at WalletHub, discusses how consumers expect to use credit cards to pay for their summer travel and how they can help themselves with the right credit-card deal. And in the Market Call, Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund talks about absolute value investing at a point when the market is near record highs.

Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects consumers to keep spending and to help power the economy through at least the end of the year without a recession, but he notes that if the Federal Reserve ultimately decides that it's going to 2 percent inflation or bust, there will be a bust for the consumer and the economy, with the current party ending in a potentially protracted period of struggles. Jack Nelson, portfolio manager of the global emerging markets sustainability strategy at Stewart Investors, says that while many investors are avoiding China, it's important to not be so fearful as to miss out on the opportunity that a number of companies there represent, due to valuations that are more compelling in much hotter markets like India. Sarah Foster, analyst at Bankrate.com discusses the site's latest survey showling that while nearly nine of 10 Americans know what financial success looks like in their life, only one in four think they will achieve it. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about whether it's time to convert traditional long-term retirement savings into Roth IRA accounts.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, notes that the economic news and growth remain so strong that "the odds of recession are quite low."Detrick notes that 10 of 11 sectors in the Standard & Poor's 500 are higher year-to-date, which is why his firm is overweight in equities generally, and has been adding to financials and industrials in particular. Detrick says there are several disconnects between hard and soft data -- soft data shows low consumer confidence but hard data shows strong retail sales -- and he is trusting the hard data to see the economy continue to broaden out for the remainder of the year. Also on the show, Chuck explains how the new securities settlement standard of "T+1" will affect individual investors, and while he explains that the changes are minimal and won't be noticed by a lot of everyday investors, he also lays out that virtually every stock, bond and ETF trade moving forward will be impacted by the new rules. Plus, in the Market Call, long-time CNBC contributor Ron Insana, the chief executive officer at iFi AI, showcases his platform's technology, which brings together artificial intelligence and stock market data to decide which securities are likely to go on big runs in the next week, month and year.

Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull, says that the market is showing signs of topping out, though he thinks that the building downturn now will likely be short and not too steep before a rally again chases record highs. Bishop notes that "all of the bears have been destroyed," so there are few investors betting against the market, which is typically a sign that trouble is ahead. Bishop notes that those bearish investors were tired of their losses, and that betting against the market now would be risky, but he says there is more downside risk than potential upside right now. Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that as the market adjusts to the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts as long as possible, it will set up the market for a better second half of the year. Stephen Minar, head of closed-end funds at BlackRock, discusses how discounts drive money flows into closed-end funds, but they also attract activist investors whose actions may be harmful to others. BlackRock has created some initiatives to fight back, reducing discounts but hoping to increase a closed-end fund's consistency. And in the Market Call, David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel returns, and is the only guest who tackles the ticker list by simply addressing the first five names on it.

Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Wealth Management, says that while the economy has been stronger than investors expected entering the year — and isn't likely to have a sudden reversal — investors need to heed the warning signs and balance optimism with caution, remaining properly diversified. He notes that some international markets are particularly well-positioned right now in terms of valuations compared to domestic equities, particularly in hot industries like artificial intelligence, where the bargains are more with global stocks. Vanneman also likes real assets and discusses the importance of adding alternatives to generate both returns and stability. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, talks about adding international bonds to the portfolio mix with his pick for the ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about properly selecting bonds and bond funds for a retirement portfolio, and Les Rubin of Main Street Economics discusses his new book, "Why You Should Give A Damn About Economics: The US Debt and Your Future."

Gina Sanchez, chief market strategist at Lido Advisors, says that the stock market is changing its mind so fast that every month investors have a new focus. She notes that the market has gone from favoring value to growth to defensive growth and kept rotating to where it is now back to growth, but she says that can't continue for long because the current level of "productive inflation" will stop working, leading to a slower economy in the second half of the year. While she doesn't expect a hard landing — and in fact expects a long, slow period of sluggishness — it will create volatility and conditions that favor quality, profitability and cash flow. Jennifer White discusses the latest J.D. Power research on consumer financial health, which showed modest improvement despite headline issues over inflation, although there is some concern that it's still a small group of consumers claiming improving circumstances. Plus, Kevin Walkush, portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, talks about quality growth stocks — with an eye towards the artificial intelligence companies that deserve the "quality" label — in the Market Call, and Chuck tells the story of Bitcoin Pizza Day, and what happened to the guys who in 2010 exchanged two pizzas valued at roughly $25 for a little more than $40 in bitcoin, which today is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — digs into his research on just how much election results actually matter for the market, and Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, talks in the Market Call about investing in disruptive stocks.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says investors need to be watching for issues like liquidity being pulled from the system and credit spreads widening and other signs that there may be trouble ahead. He says the market -- as witnessed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 last Friday -- remains driven by momentum and investor behavior and fear of missing out, but once there are strong signs that conditions are faltering and momentum is slowing, there will be a downturn, with a slowdown starting later this year though it may not turn into a full recession until 2025. Ted Benna, recognized as "The father of the 401k," discusses America's retirement and savings crisis and details what he calls the "Wheat Grain Incentive Plan," that would revolutionize the way millions of Americans build savings, plus Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts payment-technology company Marqeta (ticker MQ) in the Danger Zone.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that gold historically has a quick bounce after the first cut in a rate-cutting cycle, and he expects to see that gain in gold stocks — a fast uptick and then strong results lasting at least a year — whenever the Federal Reserve moves next. Winmill says that the market can keep climbing the wall of worry for a little while, but he expects struggles once current momentum fades. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the technical indicators are suggesting that the Standard and Poor's 500 can hit 5,600 by the mid-fall, though he warns that there may be a setback all the way down to 4,800 once the uptrend ends. Charles Lewis Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management, says that the big discounts investors have seen in closed-end funds will continue, and he likes real estate and term funds as great values for investors to consider now. In the Market Call, Christopher Sargent, portfolio manager at Bradley, Foster & Sargent, makes his debut talking stocks.

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that a no-landing situation for the economy will create problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to hitting inflation targets, and for consumers who are renting, buying cars and more. Thomas noted that the current two-speed economy features a large group of consumers and businesses that have been less interest-rate sensitive and who have benefitted from current conditions, while a smaller group is struggling with high rates, as shown by higher delinquency rates and trouble signs. Thomas says that if the Fed can't get inflation down, the central banker will probably continue its course "until they break something." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a fund tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 — layered with a covered-call strategy to generate income — his pick for ETF of the Week, and Loreen Gilbert, chief executive officer at WealthWise Financial Services, talks stocks during her maiden voyage in the Market Call.

Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says the current market conditions have made him "much more prone to let my winners run," and that investors should not take a market pushing to all-time highs as some sort of sell signal because in most times -- including today -- new highs are a positive, even if they inspire some nervousness and fear of new heights. Tilson says that investors should focus less on headlines and more on what drives markets, namely a strong economy and growing corporate profits. Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study -- done in honor of Mental Health Awareness Month -- which found that nearly half of American adults say money at least occasionally has a negative impact on their mental health. In the Money Life Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund discusses stocks.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says talk of stagflation and other potential economic woes is overblown, and that the economic data suggests that the economy will overcome the short-term headline distractions to perform reasonably well, even if consumers and investors feel dissatisfied living through periods of higher inflation and lower investment returns. He says the profitability and performance of companies are broadening, and that's happening right now, which should make investors bullish. Also looking at recent market highs as a good sign is Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, who thinks the market will go higher and get through some minor corrections this year, but who sees technical indicators signalling much more significant trouble coming next year and beyond. Plus, research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a study on which cars convey the most "status" to their buyers, and whether there is any real value -- rather than just higher insurance bills -- that comes from the status given those fancy cars.

Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, says investors have pushed the Federal Reserve into a box, to where central bankers will now be cutting rates into an environment of rising unemployment and slowing gross domestic product growth. Historically, he notes, the stock market fears those conditions rather than rewarding it, which means the market will be sorting out that problem through higher volatility while it waits for more certainty from the economy. VanCronkhite says investors should build protection into their portfolios by owning businesses with great balance sheets, moving away from the Magnificent 7 stocks -- which he says will stop moving as a group -- to take advantage of the economic strength that should result in better long-term results once the market digests the Fed's eventual moves sometime in 2025. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisists DoorDash in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent rally is the market betting that it can get better financing and last longer, even though he believes the company remains a zombie stock that will run out of cash in two years time. In the Market Call, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks about his approach to this market, which is heavy on technicals and using stops to buy issues where the trend is turning while getting out of stocks that are moving against the tide.

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that the market has reached a "Maalox Moment," where investors want to be invested but are nervous about the potential for a big drop, and they have to be willing to ride out their choices or they should be taking the safe alternatives of higher yields in fixed income. Stringfellow says that classic buy-and-hold investors need to be more active to feel comfortable today, noting "Just sit back and relax doesn't count." Buck Klintworth, senior portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market's technical indicators are not showing "the major shift that scares investors" in the cards for the rest of this year; Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, says homeowners "did a really good job of locking in low mortgage rates when they were low, and of locking in low fixed rates," which made them the big winners of the rising rate environment, which has created opportunities for bond and mortgage investors now. Plus, financial adviser Mike Salierno discusses the latest data released in Northwestern Mutual's 2024 Planning & Progress Study, which shows that Americans now believe they'll need $1.46 million to retire.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — says that America's fiscal and monetary policies are sending mixed signals, "driving our car hitting the gas and the brakes at the same time." Fiscally, it's the gas, as shown by economic numbers, but the Federal Reserve is hitting the brakes, which makes it hard to figure out what's next, contributing to recent market whipsaw moves. Dover says current conditions suggest that investors should get out of cash and into assets that will do well when the market declines, because he expects a mild downturn and soft market at least until there is more certainty on direction. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi looks at a trendy new actively managed core bond fund for his "ETF of the Week," noting that he thinks that active management for fixed income makes sense in today's interest rate environment, noting that managers can flex into different bond types to make the most of current conditions. In the Market Call, Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, makes his debut, talking individual stocks.

Mike Thompson, portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, sees heightened volatility ahead for the market, but says that recent concerns on big-picture items have seemed to ebb, giving the stock market room to run here. In the Big Interview, Thompson explains his firm's "risk-responsive investing" approach and the tactics it is drawn to in current economic and market conditions. Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA, brings his firm's forward-looking, short-term ratings system to the Market Call, and Chuck takes on the latest statements from best-selling author and perma-bear Robert Kiyosaki, who over the weekend was saying that the new crash has begun and gave suggestions -- that Chuck disagrees with -- on how to profit from the massive downturn he is expecting.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that she sees the stock market grinding higher through heightened volatility for the rest of the year as the Federal Reserve pushes rate cuts out to December or into 2025. Still, she expects "another shoe to fall" with the economy and the market, though that trouble likely is coming next year or beyond. By comparison, Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, sees the market retesting record high levels in fairly short order, but he worries that the longer-term technical indicators suggest "a rocky two, three, four years" ahead, though he remains positive that equities will be up a decade from now, so that long-term investors should remain in the market through the trouble ahead. Plus, in the Market Call, Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group — publishers of the No-Load Fund*X — talks about riding the wave of what has been winning, and discusses how the winners and losers appear ready to hold their positions for a while longer before conditions change.

Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says we are seeing a tug of war between the forces lifting the economy -- powered by excitement over artificial intelligence -- facing the stubbornness of inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone rate cuts as long as possible, weakening the market. Kourkafas says he prefers the strong economy over rate cuts because it builds a strong foundation for corporate profits, which ultimately will drive markets higher, overcoming the short-term impact inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are having on the market now. Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner -- long-time columnist at USA Today and most recently financial editor at AARP -- talks about his recent decision to retire, mostly, and what went into making it and what he learned from working with seniors facing the end of their working lives. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits Express, which has gone from bad to worse since it was a Danger Zone pick a few years ago, having recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Trainer doesn't see the company being saved in the court, expecting it to complete the journey to zero.

Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "structured protection ETFs," in which a fund owner gets exposure to a market index but gives up some upside potential in exchange for protection against losses. The funds sound like a substitute for stocks but, akin to equity index products and other financial hybrids built to avoid losses, are a more suitable substitute for bank savings accounts and other cash investments. Kaufman says the products are a reflection of the times, where many investors are tired of the volatility and nervous for the future and want some assurance that they will not lose money in the market. Also on the show, Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- which runs the Private Shares Fund -- discusses how late-stage private venture companies are a real opportunity now, coming off of two years in which private shares have struggled and the market for taking those companies public has been sluggish. He also discusses Destiny Tech 100, an exchange-traded closed-end portfolio that has been trading like a meme stock, with massive gains -- but also nose-bleed falls -- since its debut in March. Plus, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses ETFs in the Market Call.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the Channel Capital Research Institute -- author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" -- says that Jerome Powell is currently trying to live "the financial version of the Hippocratic oath, which says 'First, do no harm.'" Roberts says that Powell is trying to adjust expectations gradually, which is why Wednesday's statement from the Fed boss was benign, trying to play both sides, setting expectations at one rate cut this year but with the potential to avoid that if the data doesn't demand it. In the ETF of the Week interview, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, takes a young, small fund that has struggled out of the gate -- X-trackers US Green infrastructure Select Equity -- and makes the case for making it a long-term holding and, in the Market Call, Stephen Dodson of The Bretton Fund talks about how his style of business value investing works in current market conditions.

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that there will not be a recession -- or anything resembling it -- this year, but he makes it clear the can't be said for 2025, once the election cycle and concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and inflation staying around longer play out. Blank says he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be pressured into making rate cuts, but notes that it could make a cut in the fall leading into the election if the data suggests one is appropriate, but he doesn't see the central bank moving off of its plan to get inflation back to the 2 percent level. When that plays out in that recession that's coming for next year, Blank says it could help to minimize the duration of the downturn. Also on the show, Adam Ruben, vice president of the Economic Security Project, discusses the group's survey of consumers using the IRS Direct File pilot program, noting that the new filing methods drew a lot of consumer interest but also a lot of praise by the 140,000-plus taxpayers who used the system across 12 states. He expects the IRS to dramatically expand the program in the near future, given the strength of the results this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management talks growth stocks.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that the years after peak inflation and peak tightening tend to be good for markets, and he expects that to continue with a market and economy that he thinks can avoid big downturns. Levitt says the economy never got the recession many people expected because the economy didn't have a lot of excesses to create bubbles or big issues, but also because trouble came in spots, rolling into one area without taking over the whole landscape. As a result, Levitt's major guideposts for recession haven't been flashing warning signs, though he acknowledges that the next six months will likely rise and fall almost entirely based on the actions of the Federal Reserve and how the market responds to them. Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says he expects the market to recapture the record highs it was at earlier this year, with a year-end target of 5400 for the Standard & Poor's 500. Plus Ken Laudan, portfolio manager, Buffalo Large Cap Growth Fund discusses innovative, high-quality, durable large-cap growth companies in the Market Call.

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an inverse relation where rates staying high would be bad for equities, while rate cuts would be a big plus. Also on the show: Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association, discusses the Beer Purchasers' Index reaching its highest levels since 2021, portending a strong summer not only for beer drinkers but for the economy; David Trainer of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund into the Danger Zone, and Mac Sykes, portfolio manager for Gabelli, talks financial stocks in the Market Call.

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official government levels when looked at in more updated, modern ways to evaluate consumer prices, noting that shelter costs are dramatically overstated in traditional measures, skewing the numbers. All of this creates a positive long-term outlook, Schwartz said. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market's technical picture suggests a downturn in the offing, but likely nothing beyond a 5 percent decline before the market resumes pursuit of record highs. Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn says that record discount levels for municipal bond closed-end funds, coupled with attractive yields on those funds, are creating real opportunities for income investors. In the Market Call, Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks about putting a social investment lens over a market view to select stocks.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate and force the Federal Reserve to increase rates, conditions should remain benign and comfortable for investors. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) his pick for "ETF of the Week," and in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund, talks about finding the right forward-looking opportunities in markets now.

Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for the Baird Strategic Municipal Bond fund, says that investors should take the Federal Reserve at its word, expecting interest rates to have peaked, anticipate a cut but don't expect it to happen until the numbers warrant it. That may not happen until late in the year or into 2025. Meanwhile, he notes investors are getting strong returns -- particularly in muni bond funds where there are additional tax benefits from investing -- though not getting paid to take on extra credit risk, even though defaults and delinquencies haven't gone up dramatically with rates staying higher for longer. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that Americans aren't just planning to go far and wide this summer, they're planning to go into debt to get there; Chuck goes "Off The News" with the Department of Labor's release of new fiduciary guidelines for investment managers, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds talks small-cap technology in the Market Call.

Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager on the global, international and emerging markets small-cap teams at Seven Canyons Advisors, says that "near-shoring" or "China plus one" supply-chain diversification will "be the dominant force in international markets over the next decade." Kutusov says that geopolitical pressure and rising labor costs have pushed companies out of China or made them open additional capabilities elsewhere, most notably in India and Mexico. Plus, international interest rates are higher than in the U.S., leaving places like India, Mexico and Indonesia with economies that have room to ease rates and accelerate future growth. Also on the show, R. Jisung Park, whose new book "Slow Burn: The Hidden Costs of a Warming World" digs into the economic impacts of global warming events, plus we revisit a recent chat on the market's technicals with Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research.

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but no more than twice this year and in September at the earliest, and he says it's increasingly likely the moves won't start until 2025. The amazing thing, Wren says, is that the stock market got to where it was flirting with record highs despite investors adjusting from six projected cuts this year down to potentially none. He says market valuations are high and he expects them to give in to economic pressures to move lower, but long-term he's positive on equities, liking industrials, health care and energy stocks while trimming technology and communication services, the big winners from 2023. David Trainer, president at New Constructs revisits pet-insurance company Trupanion, a Zombie stock that he says may be worth shorting as its business model is flawed and unlikely to be turned around. Plus, Larry Swedroe, chief research officer at Buckingham Wealth Partners, discusses his new book, "Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing."

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that two wars have had less impact on markets that many observers have expected because the market has recognized that geopolitical events require a direct tie to earnings before they can truly dampen gains. Because of that -- but also because of issues he sees with the domestic economy -- Papic says investors who are giving up on international markets and getting their diversification by overweighting U.S. multinational stocks are making a mistake. In a wide-ranging interview, Papic notes that he expects to be bullish right up to Election Day in November, but the results of the vote -- particularly if they give either presidential candidate the control of Congress to boot -- could have broad and dramatic impacts on the market in 2025 and beyond. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors reviews the first quarter results for closed-end funds, interval funds and business-development companies, noting that it was a strong period with more than 90 percent of closed-end issues making money in the first three months of 2024, although municipal bond funds continued their lagging ways. Plus, Chuck gets to talk about his childhood fantasy car with University of Toronto professor Dimitry Anastakis, whose new book is "Dream Car: Malcolm Bricklin's Fantastic SV1 and the End of Industrial Modernity."

David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large Cap and Small Cap Financials funds, says that investors should not expect the classic thinking of lower rates equals higher margins and bank stocks go up, because the math may not work that way this time, which is why he is hoping rates stay where they are for longer. Ellison says that the Federal Reserve should wait until something about the economy breaks if it wants to help the banking sector, which needs to go through its classic cycles, which have been stunted by Fed actions over the last few years. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also weighs in on the financial services and banking sector, but in his case it's by turning to an insurance fund as his pick for ETF of the Week. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of the Independent Vanguard Adviser, discusses not only his manager-centric fund-selection style but also his recent foray into -- and now out of -- bitcoin.

Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors, says he's not particularly worried about what two current wars and other issues are doing to the economy ad stock market now, but that his real worry is federal policies in terms of fiscal expenditures. "To me, that doesn't look sustainable, and that looks more like an emerging market than, basically, the leader of the free world." He says most of the conditions are in place in the U.S. for an inflationary medium-term outlook, though he does think that the U.S. market should be able to avoid a depression after the current concerns get sorted out, but that conditions will feel like the 1970s, a period of high inflation and economic difficulty. Also on the show, Nick Young, chief experience officer at Money Pickle, talks about the question that savers should be asking their advisers regularly that most ignore, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the troubles that consumers have encountered as they have increasingly gravitated towards using "Buy Now, Pay Later" programs. In the Market Call, Joe Rinaldi, president/chief financial officer of Quantum Financial Advisors, covers both stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Dan Zanger, founder and chief technical analyst at ChartPattern.com, says that he has followed the leaders out of the market, noting that the artificial-intelligence companies that had led the market's rally to new highs have now gone into consolidations and he's content to accept money-market returns until the market changes its tune and the charts stop suggesting that they want to go lower. Also on the show, Herb Greenberg -- longtime journalist and financial analyst -- talks about his new firm, WallStreetBeats.com and the twist it is putting on traditional institutional research, as well as why he's not just starting a new business in his 70s but never planning to retire, and why others might want to plan a "retirement" that includes some work. Plus, Craig Martin discusses the 2024 U.S. Full-Service Investor Satisfaction Study from J.D. Power, which showed that people using financial advisers are happier than ever with their results but they're not loyal to their advisers, which may mean that when the market moves away from recent highs they could move on from their counselors.

Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says the economy is resilient enough to handle current levels of interest rates, and that better economic growth will allow earnings to drive the stock market higher even as anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are put off until 2025. Yardeni says he expects the rest of this decade to resemble the Roaring 20s, without irrational exuberance but also without the Great Depression to follow as it did a hundred years ago. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer at New Constructs calls shenanigans on Root Inc., noting that price targets on the stock have been raised by over 500 percent, but profitability forecasts have not been going up, suggesting the stock is due for a hard fall after its recent big bounce up. In the Market Call, James Abate of Centre Asset Management -- manager of the Centre American Select Equity fund -- talks

Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that the current issues keeping inflation high are about supply-side economics and are the kinds of problems that the Federal Reserve can't just fix by cutting interest rates. So while he sees the Fed as having pulled off the soft landing earlier this year, it can't "save us" this time, although he says the strong economy should ensure that the cycle should play out without a crash or catastrophe. Ann Somers Hogg, director for health care research for the Clayton Christensen Institute, discusses her work showing that caregivers -- particularly working mothers -- are suffering through mental health issues impacted largely by society not understanding the issues they are facing. As a result, she notes that if health is wealth, working moms are living in extreme poverty. Plus Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says the uptick in inflation is not enough to overwhelm the yields investors are earning, noting that real returns may be better than ever. He says investors should enjoy collecting the high yields while interest rates remain high, but total returns should improve once cuts start. Doty is not expecting meaningful rate cuts this year -- he anticipates two reductions, one after the election -- but says that the long-term average gap between the Fed funds rate and inflation is well above its typical zero, so the central bank can cut rates and have a positive gap, meaning it can claim to be tough even as reductions start. Doty anticipates the important cuts -- the ones which narrow that gap back to near zero -- will occur in 2025.

With Wednesday's release of the latest Consumer Price Index numbers shaking the market's confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, Chuck gets the latest take from Christian Chan, chief investment officer at AssetMark, and Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist at BlackRock. Both see the Fed as acting, though Chan expects the central bankers to wait longer until conditions almost force a move; Chaudhuri still sees cuts later in the year, though she says a June cut may now be off the table. One area where they disagree is that Chan doesn't like the value investors are getting in intermediate-term fixed income, while Chaudhuri says that investors should be looking for intermediate-term fixed income and lengthen maturities now ahead of rate cuts later. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a senior bank loan fund as his ETF of the Week and, in the Market Call, Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services -- editor at The DRIP Investor newsletter -- brings his firm's Quadrix system to the fore, noting the sectors that score particularly well now and the areas where the system struggles to find buys.

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that inflation staying stubbornly above the target of the Federal Reserve -- despite the central bank's moves that have raised interest rates to 20-year highs -- has created the kind of market conditions in which gold, historically, has thrived. He does not think gold's success is necessarily due to its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, because that requires inflation sustained at levels above 5 percent, but it is other dynamics like geopolitical risk and two ongoing wars that are combining with inflation to drive gold now. Also on the show, Cam Miller of Money Pickle talks about how market highs have shown that consumers are happy with their financial advisers, but how consumers haven't developed loyalty to advisers, a sign that they might bail out and reduce the effectiveness of financial planning if/when market conditions turn. Matt Brannon discusses the "True Cost of Homeownership" study from Clever Real Estate, which showed that a surprising number of Americans find themse3lves house poor and having regrets about the properties they own, and Emerson Ham III, senior partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors, makes his debut in the Market Call talking stocks, traditional mutual funds and ETFs.

Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research, says the bullish sentiment and investor optimism should lift the commodities market and help the market rally keep rolling, though he says investors should be worried that conditions are taking a turn for the worse when more stocks are making new lows rather than new highs or the Standard & Poor's 500 falls below its long-term average. He says the Federal Reserve may decide not to cut rates until those conditions appear, noting that the central bank won't want to act earlier than conditions force it to. Also on the show, Howard Dvorkin, chief executive at Debt.com, goes Off The News discussing how Fed data showing higher delinquency rates and rising charge-off data are supported at the grass-roots consumer level, noting his site's most recent credit-card survey, which showed that more than one-third of Americans have maxed out their credit cards in recent years as inflation and interest rates were rising. Cassandra Happe, analyst at WalletHub.com, on the site's survey showing that consumers say they are fed up paying credit-card transaction fees, though they are not taking many steps to actually avoid them. Plus Chuck answers two listener questions on subjects that the writers think are political but where Chuck thinks the answers should be focused on process and math.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank says 2024 will end up as "a pretty good year for the economy," with the soft nearly in place as the Fed starts to cut rates in the summer. He notes that worries about an interest-rate shock or an energy-price shock -- the big two drivers of recession -- are not exceptionally high right now and any raised concerns in those areas have enough offsets for the U.S. economy to remain the world's best while global turmoil and economic uncertainty plays out. Nick Pisano discusses a Clever Real Estate survey showing that nearly three-quarters of all Americans report having an overspending problem. David Trainer of New Constructs puts SNAP Inc. back into The Danger Zone, noting the stock probably won't be out of trouble until the stock reaches zero, and Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors forecasts that the Standard & Poor's 500 will hit 5,750 or higher as part of the macro outlook he uses to inform his stock picking in the Market Call.

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, turned positive on the market back in November and he's not ready to ring the register and close out the current rally just yet, though there are some metrics showing that "the market is about as overextended as it's been historically before you get a correction." That doesn't make him nervous or worried, but he says that's a symptom rather than a sell signal. Meanwhile, he sees a bull market running in commodities and he intends to ride that until the market corrects. In the Big Interview, Steve Scruggs, manager of the FPA Queens Road funds, says that he would expect small caps to be helped along by interest rate cuts so long as the consumer does not run out of steam when it comes to spending. He favors a mix of long-term compounders and special situations, but notes that quality is expensive right now and the best opportunities are among some stocks that have been beaten down or punished due to operating anomalies that have the chance to revert to the mean and tick up from here. Harin de Silva, manager of the Allspring Global Dividend Opportunity fund says in The NAVigator segment that the US has remained one of the best places to be in terms of yields generated relative to the risks being taken. While he favors a global allocation, he noted that the fund has a surprising tilt toward the United States, helped along by the low volatility levels due to the strength of the U.S. economy. De Silva says that the big surprise in recent markets has been how the bad news from Ukraine and Israel -- along with troubles at both the Suez and Panama Canal -- hasn't created uncertainty in the market and convinced investors to stop taking on risk. Plus, Loren Hsaio discusses the latest information from Northwestern Mutual's 2024 Planning & Progress Study, which shows that Americans are coping with record levels of financial insecurity right now.

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says that American investors who have some $6 trillion in cash are in danger of missing out as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in coming months, meaning they should focus on what they are doing with their cash-like investments. That's why he made Fidelity Limited Term Bond his "ETF of the Week," noting that unexciting -- but in line with expectations -- is something investors should be striving for right now, so that they are protected when the rate picture changes. In The big Interview, Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors, talks about how flexible bond-fund investors should be preparing for rate cuts and focusing in on duration plays -- where they are extending maturities right now to lock in current high rates -- while recognizing that credit quality will be a big factor in what happens when the cuts start happening. Plus, Miles Tullo discusses recent research from J.D. Power on how convenience is driving Americans to digital wallets and how satisfied consumers are making the change from greenbacks to digital use of money. Plus, Sandy Villere, co-manager of Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at the Macro Institute, says that people should not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in hopes of rescuing the economy or keeping the market rally rolling. Instead, he says the Fed tends to cut rates when things go wrong, which he expects to happen by the middle of the year, when bad economic news starts piling up. Nick is not expecting the proverbial soft landing, noting that macro indicators like the inverted yield curve and more are still working through the economic cycle and are making it that the full force of a slowdown will be felt in 2025, and that "the next seven to eight quarters will be tough especially compared to the five or six that have come before it." In "The Financial Crunch from Money Pickle," Dave Rowan, president of Rowan Financial, discusses how investors can integrate real estate and property investments into a portfolio and how "passive income" does not fully describe the role those property buyers play in their holdings. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund, talks about buying businesses rather than stocks, focusing on analyzing what a company does to determine when the stock is presenting a real long-term value and opportunity.

David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com and the president at Sierra Alpha Research, says the market's first quarter was much stronger than he expected, avoiding a low that he was expecting. The current low-volatility incline the market is on reminded Keller of 2021, a time when the market was recovering from Covid and kept driving higher despite concerns. Keller says that he is watching for danger signs like a spike in volatility or deterioration in breadth indicators, but lacking those troubles he says the market is giving a "long and strong" impression that he is inclined to follow until those trouble spots become visible. In The Big Interview, Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that the Federal Reserve has two choices right now, one of which is declaring victory over inflation despite not having achieved its target rate, or it can push harder to get the job done, which might knock the economy off of its soft-landing trajectory. Like Keller, Treussard notes the market's low volatility as a positive, though he worries that it is making investors take extra chances that could turn into trouble when the market turns. Plus, Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, brings his earnings-centric investment style to the Money Life Market Call.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, says that he doesn't see the economy going into a recession, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates "at a leisurely pace" and to get through inflation-reduction with a soft landing. Gruenwald recently raised his growth projection for the economy and he says the strong economy is letting the Fed take its time in cutting rates, but that current levels of 5.25 percent are too high. He doesn't expect the central bank to cut rates below 3 percent, which he expects it to reach with a few rate cuts this year starting in June and four to five cuts next year. Larry Tentarelli, founder/chief technical strategist, Blue Chip Daily Trend Report says the market's upward trend has room to run. As a technician, Tentarelli says the most bullish signal is a market at new highs because there is no overhead resistance, and while he expects some small, normal pullbacks along the way, he expects the long-term move to be higher. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits a meme stock in The Danger Zone and author Anne Lester discusses her new book, "Your Best Financial Life: Save Smart Now for the Future You Want."

Kim Blanton of the Boston College Center for Retirement Research – where she writes the Squared Away blog -- says that Americans wind up falling into some classic psychological traps when it comes time to claim Social security benefits, and often take the money before they need it based on flawed thinking, reducing their retirement benefits for life. She highlights how savers -- even when confronted with numbers showing that their lifetime benefits will be significantly better with a late start, and assuming they have a long life -- instead jump at the chance to get a smaller amount of money so long as they can start receiving it now. Nicholas Marshi, editor at the BDC Reporter, talks about the struggles business development companies had at the end of 2023 and how they have been performing in the new year, with an outlook for what's ahead as the interest rate cycle starts to change. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes BlackRock U.S. Equity Factor Rotation his "ETF of the Week," and Ken Applegate, portfolio manager for the Wasatch International Growth and International Select funds talks in the Market Call segment about the promise of foreign small-cap stocks now, after long periods of underperformance for both small-company and overseas investments.

Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the big picture still argues for overweigting stocks relative to bonds and cash so long as the Federal Reserve follows through on making rate cuts and the economy avoids recession. While economic conditions make it look like a soft landing is in place now, Kalish is concerned about the outlook for 2025, noting that his concern level rises the longer the Fed holds off on rate cuts. Kalish says that the central bank can cut rates while still having restrictive policies, and that if it keeps rates tight for too long, cuts would come too late to avoid much rougher times. Also on the show: Bloomberg reporter Saleha Mohsin talks about her new book, "Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order" and how long the U.S. can maintain its position as the world's financial superpower; Brent Thurman, chief executive officer at Money Pickle discusses the latest developments in the fiduciary rule governing the behavior of financial advisers and whether it makes a difference to consumers in their day-to-day workings with brokers and financial planners; plus, with the Major League Baseball season just one day away, tax attorney David DeJong of Stein Sperling discusses what you might want to toss back and forth with your tax adviser if you are lucky enough to catch a milestone baseball when you go to the ballpark this year.

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, says that current conditions -- with inflation falling significantly year-over-year and no attendant hike in unemployment and no recession -- are the proverbial soft landing, and he believes these conditions can persist at least through the rest of the year. The soft landing as the dominant macro story will give the Federal Reserve leeway to cut interest rates less than expected, Cleveland says, and he expects central bankers to make cuts cautiously and reluctantly. By comparison, in the Talking Technicals segment, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders says that he thinks the stock market has one last leg up before the indexes -- which are showing signs of topping out -- take a turn for the worse, triggering a correction that he expects to start before election day in November. Further, Vermeulen says the rough market conditions will stick around, rather than representing a buying opportunity on the rebound. Plus, Larry McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, is back to discuss his new book, "How to Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy."

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says "This is one of the most momentum-driven markets I can recall ... where the winning stocks in one month continue to be the winning stocks the next month and then continue to win again the following month." Yet he believes in being fearful at times when others are greedy, because there are enough warning signs to make investors justifiably concerned that the rally can't last forever. Sosnick says now that the strong economy has made it that the Federal Reserve doesn't need to make rate cuts now, though he still expects them later this year. Also on the show, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says that recently revealed accounting concerns may be the catalyst that knocks data-center REIT Equinix from its lofty perch, so he put the stock back in The Danger Zone, but Samuel Adams, chief executive at Vert Asset Management and manager of the Vert Global Sustainable Real Estate fund, says in the Market Call that data centers -- and particularly Equinix -- are among his favorite buys right now, with his long-term buy-and-hold strategy allowing him to ride out what he expects will be short-term issues due to the reported accounting issues.

Scott Colyer, chief executive officer at Advisors Asset Management, says he is cautious right now, but the cyclicals, materials, energy and health care tend to be strong during periods when the Federal Reserve is bringing interest rates down. He suggests riding that trend, saying "You take your cue from the Fed, now is the time that you want risk-on. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors, says he expects the stock market to have its average draw-down of 14 percent at some point this year, but he expects it to be a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Plus, Axel Merk, chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, discusses the impact that Saba Capital Management is having on the fund and on shareholders, having entered the fund as an activist, moving to change the board as it pushes for a double-digit discount to be narrowed. Merk discusses the challenge of dealing with activist investors in a junior mining fund, the potential for the fund to be liquidated, the possible outcomes and the impact of the action on shareholders.

Cheryl Smith, economist/portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, sees the economic tide as running out, and that it will be taking the stock market with it, and while she does not think it will be a steep, sharp, protracted drop, she does say investors will want to prepare for it. She suggests keeping the portfolio simple, rather than going after alternative investments built to make money even when the market is down; she says investors will likely prefer buying U.S. multinational companies rather than investing in foreign stocks and says investors should be moving the portfolio now, so that it is well-positioned when trouble arrives post-election. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a young actively managed bond fund from Pimco his "ETF of the Week," Cassandra Happe discusses a WalletHub study showing that nearly early 3 in 4 Americans think tipping has gotten out of control, and money manager and financial historian Daniel Peris discusses his new book, "The Ownership Dividend: The Coming Paradigm Shift in the U.S. Stock Market."