Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs — who put Nvidia stock in "The Danger Zone ahead of its earnings report at the end of August, just before the stock cratered — says that the market and economic conditions are changing and lower liquidity and a slowing economy "is a recipe for a major correction in a lot of individual stocks," and that companies with misleading earnings are particularly likely to be punished. That's why he put Dayforce in the Danger Zone, because it has "the most overstated earnings" in the Standard & Poor's 500. Trainer also reiterates his call on Nvidia, noting that despite the stock's recent drop, it has a lot more room to fall. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses how investors in closed-funds trading at premiums can use sector-swapping to turbocharge their gains, selling funds trading at premiums to buy similar funds currently at discounts, and provides examples of how this would pay off now. Andrew Leigh, author of "How Economics Explains the World: A Short History of Humanity," discusses how almost everything — from climate change to the instrument a child plays — is impacted by economics and how economics can therefore be used for better decision-making. And in the Market Call, George Young, co-manager of the Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks about having the patience to let long-term plays on smaller companies pay off.

David Souccar, international equity portfolio manager at Vontobel Quality Growth, says that the interest-rate cutting cycle is going to help international equities, as foreign central banks follow the Federal Reserve's moves, which should help foster a softer landing worldwide. That said, Souccar notes that if the United States starts raising tariffs radically, it will hurt the dollar, which will make investors want to invest internationally to protect against the dollar's falling value against other currencies. Souccar notes that investors are likely to find the most opportunity in Europe — particularly in Great Britain — Canada and Japan. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a total-market fund that equal weights its holdings by sectors for his ETF of the Week, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, discusses their survey on how many parents give children access to credit cards and how often they regret that decision, and Kelley Wright, editor of Investment Quality Trends, brings his disciplined approach to value investing to the Market Call.

A funny thing happened on the way to today's show. Okay, it's not so funny since it basically canceled the show so take a quick listen to find out what happened.

David Goerz of @StrategicCAPM says the current market is putting a twist on Internet Bubble days, but that stock valuations are extremely high and so are most risk factors, so investors might want to hunker down and wait at least for rate-driven volatility to pass. Joel Dickson of Vanguard Group discusses how rules changes impacting the way investors must remove money from individual retirement accounts (IRAs) they inherit from loved ones should worry most people about how following conventional wisdom might be leading them right into a big tax bill that could be avoided with some extra planning. Plus, John Cabell of J.D. Power on the firm's look into just how satisfied US consumers are with their credit-card programs and the perks and minuses they get in exchange for their loyalty.

Michael Ball, president and lead portfolio manager at Weatherstone Capital Management, says that while the economy appears to be headed for a soft landing, that smooth ride and the first rate cuts have already been priced into the bond market, which means that bonds are not giving much cushion right now against any softness that could lead to a recession. He notes that higher quality bonds in floating-rate bank loans, short-term high yield and other niches are strong values in current conditions, especially when deriving income from sources like dividends is pricey, given stock market valuations. George Kinder, president, The Kinder Institute of Life Planning — a pioneer in the "life planning" realm of financial planning — discusses his latest project, a self-published book about achieving balance and happiness in life, called "The Three Domains of Freedom: Each Moment is Yours, Your Life is Yours, Civilization is Yours." Plus, Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, discusses tactically using ETFs in the Market Call.

Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that money is rotating out of technology and "into pretty much every other sector," which means that participation in the current bull run is broadening out. Still, he says, there is a question of whether the upswing can continue if tech isn't participating. As a result, deKempenaer sees the market trading close to current resistance levels, and he worries there is more potential for the Standard & Poor's 500 to drop to 5,550. If that support level fails, de Kempenaer sees 5,120 -- a much steeper drop -- happening quickly. Alaina Anderson, co-portfolio manager of the William Blair International Leaders Fund, says that investors may find better opportunities and stability investing overseas, where valuations are particularly compelling. Shannon Martin, analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses her study on the hidden costs of car ownership, which showed that the average hidden expenses of owning a gas-powered vehicle in America add up to nearly $7,000 annually, and John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses how corporate actions in closed-end funds — tender offers, liquidations and transitions to open-end funds, rights offerings and big changes in dividend policy — historically play out and how investors can use those historic results as a guide on how to act if they see those actions in the funds they own.

Andrew Krei, co-chief investment officer of Crescent Grove Advisors, says that at some point next year we could see inflation tick back up, which could lead to market struggles, but right now barring "geopolitical mayhem," he sees the market as continuing to climb, and he notes that investors should be pressing their bets with equities rather than fixed income right now. Ironically, Krei discounts fixed income immediately after Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes an ultra-short bond fund his "ETF of the Week." Dan Skubiz, senior portfolio manager at F/m Investments, talks about small-cap stocks in the Market Call and Greg McBride discusses a new Bankrate.com study showing that nearly three-quarters of Americans have financial regrets, mostly about not saving early enough for retirement or saving nearly enough to cover emergencies

Ryan Myers, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management -- manager of the Causeway International Small Cap fund -- says that current valuations "are on par with some historical extremes where small caps go on to outperform fairly significantly." He likes opportunities in Japan, particularly after market troubles there earlier in August made valuations even more appealing, but he also says there are bargains to be had in European financials and AI-adjacent companies in Taiwan and Korea and elsewhere. Financial adviser Mark Matson discusses his new book, "Experiencing the American Dream: How to Invest Your Time, Energy, and Money to Create an Extraordinary Life," and Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, digs into merit aid -- the focus of his new course aimed at parents trying to find ways to navigate college funding -- and how students can tap into it.

Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, says that while rate cuts tend to be good for the market, there is an unusual circumstance now where the cuts upend the Japanese yen carry trade. That created the market's short-lived August drawdown, but that circumstance could resurface; while the market has moved past that problem, Weniger notes that the Fed's expected actions in cutting rates are happening during a bull market run, which tends to be unusual, but which has to be taken as a bullish sign this time. Weniger notes that he particularly likes small caps and regional banks right now. In the "talking technicals" segment, Michael Sincere of Michael Sincere's Long-Term Trader says investors should "be bullish, but be cautious," and talks about maintaining higher cash balances and using options strategies to protect against heightened volatility now. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., discusses investing in blue-chips, big, brand-name companies that are paying a growing dividend.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, expects a unique occurrence in Federal Reserve actions between now and election date, with inflation dropping down to its target rate of 2 percent while the labor market reaches equilibrium, with the unemployment rate hitting 4.5 percent. Rick says that good news -- which will be accompanied by rate cuts from the central bank -- will push any potential recession back into 2025 and possibly '26, with economic growth falling below 2 percent, under long-term norms but not so bad that the economy craters. David Trainer, founder and president, New Constructs, pulls a shocker in the "Danger Zone," saying that a member of the Magnificent Seven -- a stock with one of the largest market capitalizations in the world -- has run so far, so fast that it is overdue for a reset that could bring the stock down by more than 60 percent. Plus economist and author Rob Larson, discusses his new book, "Mastering the Universe: The Obscene Wealth of the Ruling Class, What They Do with Their Money, and Why You Should Hate Them Even More."

Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, says that he expects the economy to avoid a hard landing, and notes that some indicators would suggest that the economy is already in recession which means it will be over by late spring 2025, which should allow the earnings to start to pick up and fuel more growth next year. Johnson notes, further, that stock markets historically tend to perform well in the first six months after the start of a rate-cutting cycle; if the Federal Reserve starts rate cuts in September, which he expects, that means the market is well positioned to avoid any sort of hard landing as it rides through transitions in interest rates, the election and the economy. In The NAVigator segment, Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that private credit — which has been on the rise for several years — is being challenged by a cooling market for mergers and acquisition activity, but he expects a pickup as rates ease, making deals easier to do. Maury Fertig, chief investment officer at Relative Value Partners, talks closed-end funds — and surprises Chuck by discussing a fund that Chuck talked about on Thursday's show — in the Money Life Market Call.

Tim Crawmer, chief global credit strategist at Payden & Rygel, says that the rise in the unemployment has not been driven by layoffs but rather by more people looking for work, which is a positive sign for the economy. Coupled with other good looks -- like the continued strength of the consumer pushing robust GDP expectations -- it should convince individual investors to position their portfolio "with the expectation that they will see a soft landing." Still, Crawmer, notes that high valuations may limit the potential upside, putting just a bit of caution on the optimism. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also is focused on the strength of the consumer as he takes a consumer-spending fund as his ETF of the Week. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about dealing with a tender offer on a closed-end fund, and Raymond Bridges, portfolio manager for the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF, brings his "aggressively cautious" approach to the Market Call.

Elliot Rosenberg, founder of Hack My Honeymoon, talks about strategies consumers can take to use miles, points and more to get free trips, accommodations and more, and while the savings is real, some of the advice -- involving opening multiple credit-card accounts to capture bonuses -- is not standard for consumers. Marci Stewart, director of client education for Schwab Workplace Financial Services discusses the firm's annual 401(k) Participant Study, which showed that more than 40 percent of workers say they are very likely to achieve their retirement savings goals, up dramatically from a year ago, and a surprise given consumers' concerns over inflation and high interest rates. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about a perceived dislike of cryptocurrency, and we revisit a recent conversation with Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management.

Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the stock market had priced in a soft landing before the recent, temporary spike in volatility, but that action made investors realize that the potential for a hard landing is on the rise, even with Federal Reserve rate cuts on the way. Either way, Kelly says the long-term trend for the market will be positive, but he cautions that where markets go up during soft landings, investors get punished by hard landings until the bottom is reached, so he suggested caution while watching the Fed try to pull off a perfect landing. Also cautious -- but based on the market's technicals, was Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, who said the early August blip was nothing more than a temporary move, what will ultimately be a forgettable day and he thinks the market is more likely to test resistance at roughly 5,700 on the Standard & Poor's 500 before it tests support, which he figures is roughly 5,380. Jonathan Lansner, financial columnist for the Orange County Register turns to the ways that Wall Street resolved and evolved after the ruling that allowed discount brokers as a possible guide for how real estate firms will adapt to rule changes aimed at re-shaping the landscape and process for home sales.

Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, says the economic data has lined up so that the economy "can cruise through this soft landing, and not land." In the Big Interview, Haworth says that recessions have been held off for longer than expected up to now, but while he could see heightened volatility for the market for the rest of the year or beyond, the glass-half-full economy means that recession is not likely in the next year and a half. Economists -- as measured by the August 2024 Economic Policy Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics -- seem to agree, though Lester Jones, chief economist, National Wholesale Beer Association and a member of NABE's survey committee, notes that the imbalance between loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy has economists worried about how things might turn after the election. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts Lyft back into The Danger Zone -- for the fourth time since 2019 -- noting that the stock still isn't worth $1 per share despite currently trading for more than 10 times that amount. Plus Steve Nicastro, managing editor at Clever Real Estate, discusses how changes in rules governing real estate commissions -- which went into effect over the weekend -- will play out for consumers.

Brij Khurana, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management, says that if either political party sweeps the election in November -- winning the presidency and control of Congress and the Senate -- the result will be higher bond yields, because the market will price in greater financing of deficits, but he notes that a divided government, the market will price in a bigger fiscal contraction regardless of who the president is, bringing yields down. Khurana says the Federal Reserve should already have been cutting interest rates but will start next month, although he is expecting a slow, methodical cutting process rather than knee-jerk cuts in response to any data changes. On the stock side of the investment world, Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group says that the volatility that surfaced early in August hasn't given him any reason to distrust the trend, which remains intact on a long-term basis and which he does not think will be broken despite heightened volatility between now and election day. Aaron Filbeck, managing director of the CAIA Association, discusses interval funds, their fee structure and potential and responds to a recent Wall Street Journal article on how their fees "will leave you high and dry." Plus, in the Market Call, Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management discusses small- and micro-cap investing.

Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, digs into the site's latest credit-card debt survey, which says that half of American credit cardholders are now carrying debt month-to-month, up six percentage points from the start of the year and the higher level since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. 50% carry debt month to month. This figure is up 6 percentage points from January and is the highest figure seen since March 2020. Rossman discusses the current numbers for credit-card debt nationally, noting that while candidates have focused on the total of more than $1.4 trillion, the way the Federal Reserve calculates credit-card debt clearly includes a lot of consumers who are not financially challenged. With the likelihood of interest rate cuts coming as soon as next month, Todd Rosenbluth, the head of research at VettaFi, turns to the municipal bond space to pick his ETF of the Week; Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group, brings his style of "modern value investing" to the Market Call, and Chuck answers two questions from a listener who is primarily interested in how to take advantage of the start of the rate-cut cycle and recent declines in the price of most Magnificent Seven stocks.

Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, says the Federal Reserve has gotten inflation under control and is ready to start cutting, which will create an environment that favors stocks. That should make last week's sudden spike in volatility and nervousness a blip, likely forgotten quickly. Hayes talks about how the shift from rate hiking to rate cutting will impact investment strategy, noting that the improved environment for stocks should help broaden out the number of securities driving things higher. Susan Fahy, executive vice president at VantageScore discusses the firm's most recent CreditGauge, which shows the country is "reaching a potential turning point in consumer credit health." Plus, Glenn Tompkins, senior global market strategist at VectorVest talks in the market call about finding safe, undervalued stocks that are rising in price in a rising market.

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that the economic fundamentals haven't changed despite recent headlines and heightened market volatility, but she says the time has come for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge that the economy has slowed but that inflation will remain above the 2 percent target for a while. She notes that whoever wins the presidential election likely will be presiding over an economy in recession, though she expects it to be mild, but she does point out that there are potential issues that could make the troubles worse. Gregory Harmon, president of Dragonfly Capital Management, says the market's recent volatility spike was just a summer non-event, and that the real move was the expanded breadth the market saw in July; he expects that to return, potentially bringing the market back to new highs, as the market regains its footing. Sarah Foster discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey in which more than one-third of U.S. workers say they're living paycheck to paycheck, with little to no money left for savings after paying their monthly expenses. Plus, Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, discusses his recent piece on why — despite all of the technology updates around money and payments — paper checks just won't go away.

Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that growth stocks are unlikely to beat value in a higher inflationary environment with higher rates, creating a nice tailwind for value, particularly because he expects inflation and high interest rates to remain sticky. He expects a synchronized rate-easing cycle across the globe, which makes him interested in taking a longer-term look at cyclical areas like energy and industrials. Christine Kieffer, senior director of investor education at FINRA discusses the agency's recent alert warning investors of support-center scams, where investors looking for help from their brokerage or mutual fund company do a search for the firm's help desk and wind up being directed to fake sites where their money and/or data is ripped off. David Trainer of New Constructs puts BILL Holdings back in the Danger Zone, reaffirming the company's status as a zombie stock and a Danger Zone pick, noting that investors should not be fooled by revenue growth that still hasn't generated profits, and Mark Travis, president of Intrepid Capital Management, talks about companies that make beer, shoes and underwear — and sell at reasonable valuations — in the Money Life Market Call.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says that despite the recent fears over economic numbers that sent the stock market scrambling last year, the economy is now set up for "a softer soft landing," especially if the federal Reserve cuts rates by at least 0.75 percent by the end of the year. Phillip Carlsson-Szlezak, global chief economist at BCG, says there is "nothing in the numbers today that is consistent with recession," and he notes that the big sell-off at the start of the week did not signal any sort of change in the fundamentals; that's part of a broader discussion of his new book, "Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk," in which he says that current fears look most like a false alarm. Jim Welsh, author of "Macro Tides" and the "Weekly Technical Review," expects the market to rally for one more new peak before trouble arrives; he notes that 2024 is part of a 17-year cycle of trouble that dates back to 1939, which he says is setting up a recession for 2025. Plus, in the NAVigator segment, Kimberly Flynn, managing director of alternative investments at XA Investments, discusses the state of interval funds and responds to a recent Wall Street Journal article critical of interval funds and their fee structure.

Andrew Foster, chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners, is seeing a recovery in earnings and fundamentals in emerging markets, and that means that current events are creating froth and noise but that emerging markets should deliver over the intermediate to long-term. Foster says that investors looking to make quick trades will get burned in emerging markets, but says that the earnings recovery is broad-based by both country and by sector, which is encouraging. Foster also gives his take on China, on whether international diversification will pay off better during times of great volatility and more. Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise Asset Management, checks in on how crypto currency — which was off more than 20 percent as the market was heading into Monday's 3 percent drawdown — has responded, and how investors should consider the volatility of crypto, particularly as they see it traded over the weekends, when most other assets are static. The market's big moves wiped out a few strong weeks for small-cap stocks, but that is one reason why Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, pickseda small-cap fund as his ETF of the Week. And in the Market Call, Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer at Essex Investment Management — manager of the 1290 Essex Small Cap Growth fund — goes into further detail on the current opportunities in small-company stocks.

Long-time personal-finance journalist John Waggoner says that investors who have been rooting for interest rate cuts and an end to inflation should be worrying about what they will have to go through to get there, because "The best cure for inflation is a recession," and while one is coming at some point, investors need to avoid being too scared during volatile times like now, when the economy is not recessionary. Also talking off the news, Odysseas Papadimitrou, chief executive officer at WalletHub.com discusses the site's "2024 Google Search Results Study," which evaluates whether Google is really returning the best, most relevant and useful results for users, and puts the results -- which show that most consumers are losing over $200 a year to the results of Google searches -- in the context of this week's headlines over antitrust charges leveled at Google. Plus, finance professor Meir Statman returns to the show to discuss his latest book, "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance," and Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, brings his quant-active approach to the Market Call.

With the market melting down Monday and suffering its worst loss in over two years, Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that wary investors are justifiably nervous, but they shouldn't be distracted from their long-term goals, which means staying diversified and invested and looking for opportunities. Stone does warn that the well-publicized opportunities in artificial intelligence may be a bit overblown now; while he believes AI technology will reshape industry and deliver on its enormous potential, he thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself in terms of valuing AI plays. That sentiment is shared by hedge-fund manager Lukasz Tomicki, managing partner at LRT Capital Management, who says in the Market Call segment that he is avoiding most artificial intelligence plays now, noting that the AI "frenzy" has created unreasonable valuations and expectations. Plus, economist Paul Collier discusses his new book, "Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places," which was released today and which questions traditional assumptions on how to improve economically struggling areas.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says the details of Friday's jobs report "were the unmistakable signs of a slowing economy," and while a slowdown was expected based on recent trends in the indicators, the latest numbers spooked the market into thinking "maybe this economy isn't as robust we thought, maybe it's slowing a little more than we thought." He notes that the conditions are still far from anything that could be described as awful — the payroll number was still positive — but now the market wants more data to see if the Federal Reserve will have to take more strident steps to avoid a hard landing. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts cloud software provider Five9 Inc. in The Danger Zone, noting that the company just made moves to raise cash and get it off the firm's "zombie stock list," but those moves make it more likely that the company is in a business spiral that it can't escape without changing its history of operating losses. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a woman who wants to know what to do now that her favorite department store credit cards are carrying interest rates of nearly 35 percent, and Peter Tuz, chief executive officer at Chase Investment Counsel — co-manager of the Chase Growth Fund — talks growth-at-a-reasonable-price investing in the Market Call.

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that since mid-July the market has been entering a "new market with a new theme and new leadership," rotating towards small-cap stocks and broadening out. Beyond small companies, Callahan's value-driven analysis currently favors dividend-paying stocks, gas utilities, life and health and property/casualty insurers too. In the NAVigator segment, Duncan Farley, portfolio manager on the Developed Markets Special Situations team at RBC BlueBay Asset Management — the manager of the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund — says "We're looking at a multi-year high in default rates" and discusses how that will change the credit markets. Plus, Patrick Healey, founder and president at Caliber Financial Partners, talks stock investing now in the Market Call.

Noah Wise, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments — in one of two interviews focused around Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement that rate cuts are nearly certain to start next month — says that the economic data has been so strong that it has become "a no-brainer" to cut, which is the ideal situation for making a move in a politically charged environment with a presidential election in sight. He expects the Fed to keep cutting so long as the data keeps moving in the right directions, which positions the current trend to carry well into 2025 without anything worse than a soft landing to disrupt the market. Also discussing the Fed's Wednesday announcement is Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management, who thinks that rate cuts will be a positive but that even if they extend into next year they won't be enough to stop a slow down in the U.S. economy, instead softening the blow of a downturn and blunting its impact when it finally hits. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes an international fund his ETf of the Week and Simon Lack of SL Advisors and the Pacer American Energy Independence ETF talks energy investing in the Market Call.

Geoff Dailey, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says in The Big Interview that he thinks "Any pullback should be bought" right now, noting that concerns over the economy, inflation, the strength of the consumer and more will add some volatility but are not likely to derail the market. Meanwhile, he notes that "small-caps in particular are poised for strong performance," noting that a huge valuation gap has emerged between those large-cap companies and the small-cap companies, probably the biggest discount we have seen going back to the financial crisis [of 2008]." He expects the market to broaden out and for small companies to benefit, though he also noted that he prefers large-cap U.S. multi-nationals to going after international investments, noting the market conditions are strong enough to keep domestic stocks ahead of foreign counterparts. Also on the show, behavioral finance expert Meir Statman discusses the emotional issues that have investors ignoring strong economic numbers to see the problems and potential financial misery in their own lives, and Alex Gailey, analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses her research into "The Motherhood Penalty," which shows the price women pay for raising kids, amounting to 31 percent less than fathers in annual wages last year alone.

Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, says that while politics dominates the news, it shouldn't be creeping into investors' portfolio moves, as available research shows that market results have proven to be better by riding the market regardless of the party that holds the White House than by trying to strategize around the results of a vote. Fridson also discusses how the current rally in artificial intelligence is reminiscent of the Internet Bubble Days, in that a lot of companies are now benefitting from the market's perception that all AI is good, but that it will soon figure out that many companies getting a boost from the trend aren't the true beneficiaries from it. Ming Jong Tey, principal trainer at Trade Precise, says the market is at an inflection point, moving away from the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq 100 into the small-cap space, and he sees the Russell 2000 currently on a run that shoul;d push it to where it soon challenges previous record highs. Plus Sarah Holden discusses research from the Investment Company Institute on how fund fees have dropped dramatically over the last 20 years, and how as a result of fee shrinkage. In the Market Call, Howard Chan of Kurv Investment Management — which last week opened the new Kurv Technology Titans Select ETF — talks about using options strategy to benefit from sideways markets and avoid pain during big downturns.

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus - Mellon, says investors should "Never count out recessions," but he notes that the chances of one happening amid current economic strength are low, less than the 15 percent of the time that recessions normally happen. Moreover, he notes that recessions now and in the future may not look the way recessions did before the turn of the century. New York Times columnist Peter Goodman discusses his new book, "How The World Ran Out of Everything," Bryce Colburn of USA Today Blueprint talks about a recent survey on the "junk fees" that Americans hate the most and, in The Danger Zone, Kyle Guske of New Constructs revisits retailer Wayfair, a zombie stock that may have what shoppers need but which should have investors shopping for alternatives unless they're shopping for a total loss.

Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that while the stock market has been moving to record highs, "it wasn't healthy." He says that market valuations are overblown, with concentration in the index being more of a concern than at any time in history, which means that current conditions are lining up with some rare time periods, most notably the tech bubble days of the late 1990s, which ended turning ugly when the bubble burst. That's in contrast with the view from Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research, who says the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 60,000 and the Standard & Poor's 500 will hit 8,000 before the end of the current decade, and while that run could end up ugly at that point, any downturns in the interim are buying opportunities. Plus, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — provides an update on what's happened with closed-end funds through the first half of 2024, and Jaime Dunaway-Seale discusses Clever Real Estate's Gen Z Home Buyer Report, which showed that 60 percent of the generation just entering the workforces thinks they will never own a home.

Eric Crittenden, chief investment officer at Standpoint Asset Management, says the market has weakened to where there are no "great, super-strong trends out there," but he thinks the market is entering a transition period where new trends will start and emerge. That transition may not include a recession, Crittenden says, because "the algebra says to me that it's going to be hard to have a recession," due to the government actions that have staved it off and made it hard to forecast what's next. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes with something new as his ETF of the Week focuses on one of the nine new Ethereum funds that debuted earlier this week. Chip Lupo discusses the 2024 Money and Relationships Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly 40 percent of Americans have a financial account that their partner doesn't know about. In the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses "beat and replace" investing.

Jeffrey Hirsch, chief executive at Hirsch Holdings and editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac — which tracks stock market performance relative to presidential terms and election cycles — says that while the upcoming election is no longer a battle between two second-term presidents, the potential election of a first-term president in Kamala Harris would not result in much change for the market. While first-term presidents historically hit the ground running and make some of their most drastic moves early, Hirsch says Wall Street is prepared to adjust, which leaves him more concerned with how the market will perform late in the term — in 2026 — than he is concerned with what happens close to the election. Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring and Rozencwajg — which specializes in investing in natural resources commodities — discusses the recent rally in natural gas and makes the unusual case for it as a play that's adjacent to the artificial intelligence boom. And speaking of "AI-adjacent" investment potential, that's exactly one of the things currently appealing to Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, who talks about it among his stock ideas in the Money Life Market Call.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation for SLC Investments, says investors are "pretty risk-on," meaning they expect the economy is headed to an environment where rates will settle down at reasonable levels and consumers will keep spending, creating a sound environment for investors. That extends to Europe and some international markets, which will help balance a portfolio that may be impacted by a downturn late in the year, but Mullarkey says any downturn is likely to be a buying opportunity because current conditions can't keep the market down for long. That general market optimism through volatility and a correction is shared by Michele Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com, who expects heightened volatility but who sees the market likely being higher at the end of the year, with 6,000 — up about 8 percent from current levels on the Standard & Poor's 500 — being a level the market will challenge. Plus, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners talks stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that stock market valuations are extended to the point where "things need to be nearly perfect to justify those valuation levels." He is finding much better valuations internationally, noting that "Non-U.S. equity markets are cheap relative to the U.S. by an amount we have never seen before," which is why he is suggesting investors start nibbling and dollar-cost averaging into foreign markets now. Doll also reviews his annual list of 10 forecasts for the calendar year and sizes up where his forecasts stand after the mid-year point of the 2024. Doll says the economy is slowing and he expects that to show up in a market downturn before year's end. Michael Urich, chief economist at Seventh Point Analytic Consulting, discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey from the National Association for Business Economics -- released today -- which shows that a record number of respondents reported that their firms had raised prices in the last three months, but fewer respondents reported higher sales and profits, a dichotomy that suggests there might be some economic trouble ahead. Plus, Kyle Guske, analyst at New Constructs, puts a mutual fund in the Danger Zone.

Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that the economy is showing signs of slowing in some ways, while still having some measures being strong, and a lot of it is determined by consumers where the division between the haves and have-nots are growing, and where current conditions hurt people with less money dramatically more than the wealthy. Green says people are confusing the stock market's run to record highs as strength for the economy, which he says is misplaced, but which he says has handcuffed the Federal Reserve on rate cuts because it's hard to say that moves are needed when markets are peaking. In the Talking Technicals segment, Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says he'll stay bullish despite expecting a 3 to 5 percent correction now and a 5 to 10 percent dip closer to the election; he's optimistic because "strength begets strength," and a strong first half of the year bodes well for gains in the second half, as does increasing breadth supporting an uptrend. Plus, Jason Akus, head of healthcare investing at abrdn — manager of the firm's four closed-end funds covering healthcare — gives his current take on the healthcare and biotech space, noting that the sectors last rallied around the vaccine makers during the pandemic but they are now showing signs of the next big rally, and Rachel Perez discusses research from Preply showing which side gigs provide the best wages and most job stability.

Peter Repetto, vice president of investment strategy at iCapital, says that while rate cuts historically are good for markets — gaining roughly 9 percent in the year after cuts start historically — they do struggle if cuts are made during times of recession or downturn. Repetto expects a soft landing and moderate downturn, which is setting up for reasonably well for "rate-cut beneficiary" businesses moving forward. Repetto notes that markets also tend to gain in the 12 months after a presidential cycle, saying they tend to gain about 15 percent on average regardless of which party wins control of the White House, which should create a good market for the market if the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates amid a mild slowdown. Ahead of the expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve that is increasingly considered likely for September, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the granddaddy of actively managed bond funds for his "ETF of the Week," Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses a new survey showing how Americans feel their personal finances are being influenced by the current presidential candidates, and what they expect for the future depending on who wins in November, and Chuck answers a listener's question about diversifying a portfolio and how many investments to hold.

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says that as long as the economy "keeps humming along" and meets high expectations for earnings growth and stable balance sheets, the current rally should keep rolling. When that trend breaks, however, the market and economy could turn quickly; St. Aubin sees "some cracks starting to form" with consumers and with some of the economic data, and while a soft landing is possible, any problems are likely to get more painful. Also on the show, Jason Chepenik of OneDigital Retirement + Wealth discusses the firm's 2024 Employee Value Perception Study, which looks at the disconnect between what employers think workers want beyond compensation, and what workers actually are looking for from their employers. Plus, Andrew Graham, founder and portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, gives his take on the current market in the Market Call.

Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says that the market is in the early stages of an impressive bull market, noting that the current rally is now about 20 months old and that the market has dramatic gains since hitting lows in October 2022, but she notes that the average bull market runs longer and gains more and there's still plenty of room for that. She says "We're feeling great about this market. We love it from a fundamental standpoint ... and on a technical basis because the trend continues to be up as well." While she does see the potential for a correction, she says the outlook for the rest of the year is strong. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent study on side hustles, which found that 36% of American adults have a side hustle, with the average side hustler now making $891 per month. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about when to get travel insurance and when to leave home without it.

Michael Mullaney, Director of Global Markets Research at Boston Partners, says that the stock market is trading far enough above moving averages that it's due for a correction on the short term. As that pullback happens, he expects the Federal Reserve to kick in with rate cuts beginning in September, driven more by the jobs report than inflation numbers, but he notes that may not have more than a short-term stimulative effect. Mullaney says that while the broad economy may be able to put off any sort of landing until next year, the bottom quintile of consumers is already living through a recession, which is creating some of the disconnect between solid economic fundamentals but weak consumer sentimentals. Also on the show, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says Targa Resources is the stock "most likely to miss earnings," which is why it's in The Danger Zone now, plus Brian Glenn, chief investment officer at Premier Path Wealth Partners discusses both ETFs and stocks in the Market Call.

Jerremy Newsome, founder of Real Life Trading, says that with the election looming after the traditional summer-fall doldrums — and having already hit his profit targets for the year — he is about to move 100 percent into cash. "I think it's too easy right now," he says. "We're too high, it's too easy, everything is going straight up ... no reason not to be all up in cash up here for me." Newsome was clear that he's selling into strength and locking in profits, because he does think the market will be going higher once there is more certainty after the election; he expects to have at least half of his money back into stocks by the end of the year. Mark Gatto, co-founder and co-chief executive officer at CION Investment Group — which runs CION Investment Corp., a business-development company — discusses the heavy interest and cash-flow into BDCs and how that is changing the space and making it important for investors and advisers to "pull back the layers to understand what they are investing in," paying particular attention to the deals and credit quality a BDC gets involved in. Plus, Christopher P. Davis of Hudson Value Partners gives his take on value investing, — which mixes in more macro factors than the traditional bottoms-up value manager — in the Money Life Market Call.

Tim Urbanowicz, head of investment strategy and research for the Innovator ETFs, says that the current bull market run has the stock market hitting new highs roughly every four days, which is fast compared even to the Internet bubble days, and while investors are nervous that things must take a turn, he points out that hitting all-time highs has never been a catalyst for a sell-off, and isn't likely to be one now. That makes it crucial for investors to manage risk and balance their fear of loss against their fear of missing out. Innovator makes products that create that balance using options strategies to define potential outcomes and to make returns more certain or that at least remove some of the market's unknowns. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, uses recent political changes in England as a motivator for his pick as the "ETF of the Week," discussing the additional risks an investor takes by investing in a single-country fund. And deep-value investor Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, talks in the Market Call about why this is "one of the most attractive times to find opportunities" that he has seen in the last two decades.

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says the economic cycle is now in its last stages, and while there may be a blow-off top before trouble is here, he expects a recession and he will not be surprised if it occurs after the Federa;l Reserve cuts interest rates. While many observers expect cuts to help markets, Schutte says that the Fed has never been able to take an overheated economy and cool it without triggering a recession. He added that the last four recessions all occurred shortly after rate cuts. In the Market Call, Ira Rothberg, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Focus Fund, discusses buying great companies at modest discounts, with the courage to hold them for years waiting for the payoff. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question on deciding whether pet insurance is a good idea for a new puppy.

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says the market needs to "digest its gains," which he expects to turn into a "low teens selloff," but that will be a bull market correction and not a catastrophic event like the 2008 financial crisis. Stovall expects the Federal Reserve to make cuts starting in September, but he notes that the central bank is going to wait until it absolutely must make a move rather than making any change simply because the market is anticipating one, and he notes that could portend trouble because the Fed has historically waited too long before acting. Also on the show -- and agreeing with the idea that the market is strong but due for a selloff is Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, and the founder of TheQuantGuy.com. He says the market is driven by "the 4 N's," which involve a market that is numb to all news, neutralized against all volatility, that has normalized inflation and momentum trading and that has "negated all valuation." That has set up a market that can keep going despite an economy that is slowing. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's 2024 Credit Card Debt Survey, which showed that credit-card balances are on the rise and that nearly half of Americans are still paying down the credit card bills they ran up last summer, which does not bode well for how things will look for their credit when Labor Day rolls around.

David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, was still in a festive Fourth of July mood, so instead of going to his usual spot in "The Danger Zone," he picked a quality, classic American business as a potential buy, singling out HF Sinclair, the oil company, for "The Attractive Zone." Between consistent growth in its dividend and stock buy-backs, Trainer says HF Sinclair could have a potential yield of 10 percent or more. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com weighs in on Friday's jobs report and what some weakness in those numbers suggests for when the Federal Reserve will decide it's time to cut interest rates. William Vanderbloemen, founder and chief executive officer at Vanderbloemen Search Group, discusses the skills and traits that workers will want to bring to the job in a world where artificial intelligence is expected to take over a lot of tasks. In the Money Life Market Call, Rob Isbitts, co-founder and chief investment strategist at Sungarden Investment Publishing, talks about YARP, his "Yield at a Reasonable Price" strategy.

Nikolaj Schmidt, chief international economist at T. Rowe Price, says he's expecting a correction soon "but it's not going to be something too deep or too dark or too scary," noting that the economic backdrop remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve can likely finish the year with just one rate cut. Schmid discusses T. Rowe's 2024 Mid-Year Outlook, and notes that he is concerned that with foreign central banks already having cut rates, the Fed's timing is now more critical because it does not want its monetary policy to be too far out of sync with the rest of the world. John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors compares two high-yielding offerings from Ares, showing that while both could be viable and attractive options for diversifying a portfolio into the alternative credit space, there's much more to making an investment decision than a big yield. Plus, Karen Brown, a reporter at New England Public Media and the host of "The Secrets We Keep" podcast talks about financial secret-keeping, particularly around the salaries we make and what ending the secrecy might mean for individuals and for society.

David Lubchenco, partner at Chautauqua Capital Management, says that the underperformance of foreign stocks for several years has been so extreme that relative valuations look good and international stocks are poised for a strong run whenever the market's next cycle begins. Lubchenco says that when there is a concentrated market like what investors have seen during the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks, it portends change ahead, which makes this a good time for investors to make sure they take a diversified approach now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, equates quality with greatness so he's celebrating the July 4 holiday by picking a quality-focused fund as his ETF of the Week. In the Market Call, Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad's Utility Investor and The REIT Sheet talks about income and dividend investing.

Xander Gray, founder and chief executive officer at XG Capital Strategies, says that a bear market is coming, with a number of potential catalysts contributing to trigger the downturn. He says that while he expects a downturn of up to 30 percent, he does not expect it to take long. Further Gray says that for investors who have not been buying now likely want to wait until next year, with the market around record highs but likely to have at least a minor blow-off before the real bear market shows up. Jeff Clark, head of defined contribution research at Vanguard talks about "How America Saves," the company's annual look at the behaviors of more than five million retirement-plan investors, which showed that savers were setting aside money at a record pace, and that average amounts that workers are putting into savings are on the rise. Plus, Elizabeth MacBride, co-author of "The Little Book of Robo Investing: How to Make Money While You Sleep" discusses the pros and cons of using robo advice platforms as compared to human financial advisers, plus Chuck answers a listener's question comparing the returns on gold to those of the stock market and suggesting that investors should want to hold more of the metal.

Jeff Timlin, head of municipal strategies at Sage Advisory Services, says that potential problems surfacing in the California and New York municipal bond markets are telegraphing "an economic slowdown nationally," but that investors should not worry about a significant increase in defaults, and should instead find munis becoming increasingly attractive once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts electric-vehicle maker Nio back into The Danger Zone, noting that while the stock's price has cratered, it can't even justify its current price in the range of five bucks per share. Divya Sangameshwar discusses a ValuePenguin.com study showing that the average American household will spend roughly $1,730 this year on their pets. Plus, Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, discusses growth at a reasonable prices in the Money Life Market Call.

D.R. Barton Jr., Director of Market Research at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says the longest cycles suggest that the market is topping out now, but 'near-term overbought doesn't bother me right now.' He is expecting more upside into the election and carrying into 2025 before any downturn is more dramatic than a simple buying opportunity. He says that he doesn't expect much downside risk until or unless the Standard & Poor's 500 falls below the 5,300 level; meanwhile the market is telling him that money keeps flowing in and can sustain the rally longer. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, returns from a recent industry conference that was focused on business-development companies and he gives his takeaways from the event, including how BDCs compare to private credits, how the market is changing and how some money managers are using artificial intelligence to get better information on the market trends that should help them pick better investments or to have better timing on the trades they make and more. Plus, Julie Guntrip, head of financial wellness at Jenius Bank, explores 'The Mind-Money Connection,' a study that looks at how managing money can make you happier or more stressed out. In the Market Call, Lance Cannon, portfolio manager at Hood River Capital Management, returns to discuss growth-centered small-cap investing.