Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

John Butler has 25 years' experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world's largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book 'The Golden Revolution'. In the podcast, we talk about: Why stagflation is here The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans The moral hazard of Fed policy Why was inflation low after the global financial crisis? The absence of excess capacity and parallels to 1970s How to play a stagflation theme Is there a commodity supercycle? The future path of gold Why bitcoin won't replace the dollar (or gold) The importance of risk management Book that influenced John: Money and Magic (Binswanger)

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Charles Goodhart CBE is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, having previously been its Deputy Director. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for seventeen years including as Chief Adviser and later In 1997 as independent members of the Bank of England's new Monetary Policy Committee until May 2000. He is the developer of Goodhart's law, an economic law named after him. He has written numerous books including the graduate monetary textbook, 'Money, Information and Uncertainty', 'The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis' (2009) and most recently 'The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival' (2020). In the podcast, we talk about: Importance of understanding money demand and the money multiplier Should central banks target monetary aggregates and house prices? The problem with the Fed's new inflation targeting objectives. Understanding China's integration to the global economy The challenges of an ageing population Factors that depressed inflation are now turning Why didn't ageing Japan see inflation Why demographics in the US are inflationary Can India and Africa provide the necessary demographic boost to offset DM ageing? Can Tech replace the missing working age population? How to fix the global debt problem Books that influenced Charles: A Monetary History of the United States (Friedman, Schwartz), Golden Fetters (Eichengreen), the works of Dennis Robertson, James Tobin, Charles Kindleberger, and Robert Eisler

Dr. Adrian Williams is the UK's first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after a lectureship at The Cardiothoracic Institute, Brompton Hospital in 1975 took up an appointment at Harvard, Boston, USA, followed by an invitation to University of California (UCLA) in 1977. In 1985 Professor Williams became tenured Professor of Medicine at UCLA and co-Director of the UCLA Sleep Laboratory. In 1994 he returned to London where he developed the Sleep Centre at Guy's and St. Thomas' now the most active in the UK, and continues in the full-time practice of Sleep Medicine. In addition, Professor Williams holds the UK's first Chair in Sleep Medicine at Kings College, London, UK. In the podcast, we talk about: Why we sleep Impact of lack of sleep on decision-making Types of sleep non-REM and REM How much should we sleep? Does catch-up sleep on the weekend help? What triggers sleep Sleep apnea and snoring Sleep and temperature Managing jet lag Melatonin, sleeping pills, caffeine and alcohol Tips for better sleep Books that influenced Adrian: Sleep and Wakefulness (Kleitman, 1939), The Promise Of Sleep (Dement), Genius: Richard Feynman and Modern Physics (Gleick), Surely You're Joking Mr Feynman (Feynman), The Code Breaker (Isaacson), The Double Helix (Watson)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Sajid is currently the Conservative Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove. He has held two of the four 'Great Offices Of State' in the UK government: Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary. He was first elected to Parliament in 2010. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. At Deutsche Bank, he helped build their emerging market businesses. Sajid was born in Rochdale (Manchester) and was raised in Bristol. He read Economic and Politics at Exeter University. In the podcast, we talk about: How has the UK handled the pandemic so far? The UK fiscal outlook – spending focuses and taxes How pandemic shocks differ from wars Why inflation could pick up The importance of climate change and the UK track record Results of the UK's Integrated Review and centrality of climate change Why biodiversity also matters Will UK parliament's unanimous support for climate change policy continue? UK's global role in a post-Brexit world New measures to attract international talent to UK Possible future global alliances

Themos is the Head of Research at the macro hedge fund, Glen Point Capital. His previous roles included being Head of Fundamental Strategy at UBS and Head of EM FX Strategy at Goldman Sachs. In the podcast, we talk about: How investors are not understanding the impact of the US stimulus Will price increases be transitory? How healthy is the US labour market? Important shifts in China policy How to play the Euro-area recovery Investors are missing key EM trends Favourite EM markets Books that influenced Themos: Economics in Perspective (Galbraith) and A Theory of Justice (Rawls)

Dominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she's so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she's worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about: The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021 The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID Can inflation move higher? How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy The impact of more active fiscal policy on growth and inflation Outlook on Germany and China Timing the next big US bond sell-off Books that influenced Dominique: Radical Uncertainty (King, Kay), The Social Conquest of Earth (Wilson)

Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about: COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023. Fed will be in play sooner than expected. Goods sector could see 'recession' in 2021 on supply constraints. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling. EM local markets appear mispriced. Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices. UK in secular decline. Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Wolfgang Münchau is co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. He was a Financial Times columnist from 2003 until 2020 and co-founder and editor-in-chief of Financial Times Deutschland. He is the author of several books, including Meltdown Years. In this podcast, we discuss: The unpopularity of Germany's governing party, the CDU and its new leader Laschet. Laschet's support for the coal industry. The popularity of sister party CSU's leader Söder and his new economy focus. The possibility of a CDU and CSU split. Why are Greens so popular in Germany? The fiscal implications of Greens in power. Germany's constitutional constraints on fiscal policy. Why far-right AfD has performed poorly recently. The mismanagement of COVID and the political impact. Does the EU Recovery Fund signal a common EU fiscal policy? Will EU climate policy be successful? Book that influenced Wolfgang: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Democracy (Mommsen), Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World (MacMillan).

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Jeff is Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. He started his career in portfolio management and equity research before focusing on broad investment research since the 2000s. In this podcast, we discuss: Do central banks believe in QE? Why QE didn't generate inflation after GFC. What is money and can central banks control it? The importance of banks. What caused the 1970s inflation. The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system. Why fiscal stimulus won't work. The problem with market fragility and illiquidity. Central banks care about equity markets. What could generate inflation? Book that influenced Jeff: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss: Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence. Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending? The best Europe trade. Which yields matter for EM. How important is China's deleveraging goals? Where next for Chinese currency and bonds? Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy. Machine learning vs regressions. Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky). Current market views on bonds and equities.

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Bobby is partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. He is author of the widely read newsletter, Macro Eagle. He has been the UK representative of the German Economic Council. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. In this podcast, we discuss: Why the backlash against Big Tech will continue. The unionization drive in the US. A new global corporate tax accord. The bullish case for Europe. Germany in a post-Merkel world. Biden's differences to Obama. Biden's tougher stance on China than Trump. Current market views on bonds and equities.

David Riley is Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management – a USD70bn fixed income fund. Before Bluebay, David was global head of Fitch's Sovereign and Supranational Group, responsible for more than 130 ratings of the world's largest fixed-income issuers. Prior to Fitch, David was at HM Treasury where he advised on international economic and debt issues, including representing the UK at international debt restructuring negotiations at the Paris Club of Official Creditors. In this podcast, we discuss: How sustainable are US and developed market debt? Will the reflation trade continue for 2021? Peak pessimism on Euro-area. Dollar trend. Will corporates start defaulting? Impact of higher rates on credit. Which EM markets look attractive? The impact of ESG on the asset management industry. Books that influenced David: Fooled By Randomness (Taleb), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Balance Sheet Recession (Koo).

Benn is the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York. Before that he was Head of Quantitative Research and Derivatives Trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. In this podcast, we discuss: How derivative markets changed after the 2008 financial crisis. The centrality of listed derivatives. Why understanding supply-demand dynamics is important. How complexity of strategies doesn't give you an edge. Do short vol strategies work? How to manage convexity and tail risk. Derivatives to replace bonds as safe haven hedge? What risks are investors focusing on since COVID? Common mistakes by quants. Book that influenced Benn: The House of Morgan (Chernow).

Marco is Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group, which includes a private equity and green infrastructure fund, and a multinational firm specializing in integrated sustainability and climate change services that facilitate a transition towards a low carbon economy. Prior to that, he worked as an advisor on climate change issues to the Japanese government. In 2002, the World Economic Forum named Mr. Monroy one of the 100 Global Leaders of Tomorrow. In this podcast, we discuss: Will climate change policies work? The state-of-play in cap and trade and carbon taxes. The importance of energy efficiency incentives. Will the Biden administration make a difference? What is climate finance? Role of renewables and nuclear energy. Landfill/carbon capture. Investor flows into ESG and green bonds. Books that influenced Marco: The Alchemist (Coelho), Outliers (Gladwell), Emotional Intelligence (Goleman), Man's Search For Meaning (Frankl).

Zac is the CEO and Founder of BlockFi – a leading wealth management firm for crypto investors. Prior to starting BlockFi, he led business development teams at Orchard Platform, a broker dealer and RIA in the online lending sector, and Zibby, an online consumer lender. In this podcast, we discuss: The three use case of crypto – store of value, new commerce, and new payments system. Stablecoins are underappreciated. What is decentralized finance (defi). How you can earn interest on crypto assets. How to manage crypto lending books. Breakdown of market players. How to hedge your portfolio. Regulatory trends in crypto finance. Future of NFTs. Books that influenced Zac: The Hard Thing About Hard Things (Horowitz) and Zero To One (Thiel). Books Zac has recently read: No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention (Hastings) and Shantaram (Roberts).

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a research boutique for institutional investors which he started in 2009. Before that, James worked for UBS, AIG, JPMorgan and Macqaurie. In this podcast, we discuss: The real meaning of macro investing. The market has right tails as well as left tails. How to view recent rates market volatility. Why would Fed do yield curve control? Biden and the finance sector. How to hedge your portfolio. The importance of stock vigilantes. The different channels of inflation. The unexpected impact of US fiscal on wages. Books that influenced James: The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (Doyle), Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes (Konnikova), Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Schwager), A Man for All Markets: Beating the Odds, from Las Vegas to Wall Street (Thorpe), An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets (Mackenzie)

Peter is Deputy Director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, a Managing Director of ARC Financial Corporation, an energy-focused private equity firm, and the creator of Energyphile, a multimedia project exploring the past, present and future of our energy circumstance. He is the author of three books, the bestselling A Thousand Barrels a Second, The End of Energy Obesity, and his latest The Investor Visit and Other Stories, which explores disruption, denial and transition in the energy business. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. In this podcast, we discuss: The continuing reliance of the world on oil and gas. Path of renewables. Are latest clean energy expectations likely to be realised? Why clean tech is being highly valued. The impact of electric cars and batteries on metals. How the oil industry will evolve with ESG and clean tech trends. The role of carbon capture and big energy companies. Financing challenges in energy sector. Book that influenced Peter: Edison – His Life and Inventions.

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss: Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia. Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text). The pros and cons of using linear regressions. The advantages of machine learning in non-linear and complex markets. How to think about alternative and big data. Portfolio construction and combining signals. The importance of incorporating costs. Understanding time horizons of different markets. The trend to winner-takes-all with quant investors. Why bitcoin and crypto technology is special. Books that influenced Ciamac: The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie and Tibshirani), Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control: books 1 and 2 (Bertsekas), Active Portfolio Management (Grinold and Kahn). You can follow Ciamac on Twitter here and his work here

Jay is the founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of asset allocation at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss: The implications of a tri-polar world. The biggest boom is underway.. Which asset classes will perform in this new regime. The problem with a 60:40 portfolio. How to play clean energy (ICLN, ECAR) and why old energy (XLE) may still perform. Focusing on core themes: clean energy, innovation, fintech, and cyber. The Biden revolution that everyone is missing. Why rising rates won't hurt stocks. Why ARK will outperform FAANGs (RSP >SPY). How non-US and EM (EMQQ) will outperform US. Why US-China risks are overstated. Books that influenced Jay: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk and Capital Ideas (both Peter Bernstein), Age of Ambition (Osnos), Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor), The Unwinding (Packer), and The Great Risk Shift (Hacker)

Christian Hille is the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell'sche Bank (FCB) in Germany. FCB was founded in 1774 and is one of the oldest private banks in Germany. Before FCB, Christian was Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions at DWS- Deutsche Bank's asset management arm, where he was responsible for EUR100bn in assets. In this podcast, we discuss: Living in exponential times The dramatic change in investment efficient frontiers Why expected investment returns could be half compared to recent decades How investors will respond to low growth The best way to think about risk management Taking advantage of extreme market moves Using optionality in rates to hedge against risk scenarios Where to get returns in a low interest world Why gold and defensive stocks are attractive How to access private equity How the financial industry will evolve Books that influence Christian: The Universe In You: Rumi , Mindset (Dweck), Principles (Dalio)

Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss: How to think about the Fed's new framework. The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener! Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time. Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength. How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade. Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates. Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated. Are equities expensive? Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work? Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss: Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic. Have we reached peak political polarization? Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers? Could the Chinese yuan displace the US dollar as dominant currency? The recipe for being the top reserve currency. The status of the Euro. Why crypto will not topple the dollar. The two key reforms for the international financial system. Books that influenced Barry: The World In Depression 1929-1939 (Kindleberger), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz), The Yellen class note (not available online)

Eli is an economist and regulatory hacker living in Washington, DC, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University. Before that he was head of global policy at Boon supersonic. In this podcast, we discuss: Why we haven't a replacement for Concorde (yet) How vaccine/mRNA breakthrough can help with HIV and cancers Anti-ageing and blood plasma transfer The problem of energy storage and renewables Breakthroughs in geothermal energy The future of transportation SpaceX Starship could open a new frontier in space travel Minitiarisation of chips and circuits and 'escaping' Moore's law Why Ethereum has a brighter future than Bitcoin A book that influenced Eli: Finite and Infinite Games (Carse)

Happy new year and welcome to our first podcast of 2021. In this episode, we try something different and have curated the best investment ideas from our listeners. They're a smart bunch so well worth listening to. Here are the ideas discussed: Buying clean energy (Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ET [PBW]) – Rohan Yelvigi (NY) Buying Japan stocks (iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ]) – Peter Repetto (NY) Buying healthcare and financial sector equity volatility – Stephen Howard (HK) Position for equity correction – Lorenzo Lorenzi (Milan) Low inflation (selling inflation breakevens) – Dominique Dwor-Frecaut (Los Angeles) Selling US 20y rates – SN Vaidya (London) Buying pound sterling (GBP/USD) – Eric Zijdenbos (London) Buying GBP/USD upside options – Arun Sundaram (London) Buying FX volatility – Karl Massey (London) Buying Swedish Krona (selling EUR/SEK) – Ken Dickson (Edinburgh) Buying Chilean equities (iShares MSCI Chile ETF [ECH]) – Alex Schober (NY) Buying Turkey (FX and equities) – Philipp Birkan (Vienna)

Michael Auerbach is the Founder of Subversive Capital, which is dedicated to investing in radical companies. He sits on the Board of Directors of Tilray, Inc. – the first Nasdaq-listed global cannabis company – and holds several directorships with companies that Subversive invests in. He also serves as a Senior Vice President at Albright Stonebridge Group, the global consulting firm chaired by former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. In this podcast, we discuss: Launching a SPAC (SBVCF) with Jay-Z for the cannabis sector The bullish case for the California cannabis market Why Canada's legalization of cannabis has still seen illicit trade increase The financing challenge for cannabis companies Why brands are where the value is How the Biden administration will accelerate legalisation The political and cultural reasons for banning cannabis over alcohol The Portugal case of decriminalisation Books that influenced Michael: Far From the Tree (Solomon), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan), Sapiens (Harari), History of Sexuality (Foucault), Glas (Derrida), King Leopold's Ghost (Hochschild), Malcolm X, Say Nothing (Keefe)

Dr Ashley Lenihan is a leading expert on the relationship between foreign direct investment and national security and is the author of 'Balancing Power without Weapons: State Intervention into Cross-Border M&A'. She is the Head of Policy and Engagement at the British Academy of Management (BAM), a visiting Fellow at the London School of Economic's Centre for International Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In the podcast, we discuss: Why countries block foreign investment/M&A deals Types of measures used to block or mitigate deals Evolution of US policy on foreign investment (CFIUS, FIRMA) Examples of US vetoes Will Biden change CFIUS approach? How data is new front for regulating foreign investment The unusually broad scope of new UK regulation Advice to companies who engage in cross-border M&A Books that influenced Ashley: Theory of International Politics (Waltz), National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Hirschman), Power & Interdependence (Keohane and Nye) and Isolationism (Kupchan)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. One of our most popular guests, legendary Jim Leitner, returns on this episode. He gives his take on the big picture themes of the day, how best to implement trades and much more, specifically we discuss: Why the rotation trade from growth to value may not work The importance of looking at the structural trends in undervalued sectors Why today's tech boom is different from the dot-com mania The problem with 60:40 portfolios. The importance of real estate investments How low bond yields change how to value equities The power of digital options in implementing views and the bullish CNY story The 'risk arbitrage' of vol-focused market makers and trend focused investors The importance of limited trades a year The relationship between demographics and equities and the positive Japan story Reshoring and smart manufacturing The potential of bitcoin Advice for early career, and recommended books Checklist Manifesto (Gawande) and Superforecasting (Tetlock)

In this show, I talk with Professor Kevin Dowd. He is professor of finance and economics at Durham University and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He has written extensively on the history and theory of free banking, central banking, financial regulation, and monetary systems. His books include Private Money: The Path to Monetary Stability, Laissez‐Faire Banking and Alchemists of Loss: How Modern Finance and Government Intervention Crashed the Financial System. In this podcast we discuss: Was government intervention in 2020 the right thing to do? The capital problems of the banking and insurance sectors Why free banking (no/light regulation) works The problem with MMT Why debt levels matter How negative rates could hurt

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. I'm a big fan of the new HBO show Industry. It follows a group of young graduates competing for permanent positions at fictional investment bank, Pierpoint & Co. It's the most authentic depiction of a trading floor that I have seen on a TV show, so I had to get the creators of the show, Mickey Down and Konrad Kay, on to my podcast show. In this podcast we discuss: Their backgrounds working at investment banks Where they filmed the trading floor Why they avoided storylines like insider trading How they captured the details of sales/trading and M&A What the show tells us about young people today Will there be a season 2?

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute and the founder of EndCoronavirus. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. Since the late 1980s he has contributed to founding the field of complex systems science, introducing fundamental mathematical rigor and real world application, ranging from the global financial crisis to stopping the 2014 Ebola outbreak. He has advised the CDC, the Chairman's Action Group at the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the National Counter Terrorism Council, and other government organizations, NGOs, and corporations. In this podcast we discuss: Yaneer's January paper with Nassim Taleb and Joseph Norman on the coming COVID crisis Using complexity science to understand pandemics The importance of restricting travel and bringing cases to zero The mistake of countries that lift restrictions before zero cases Why the West managed COVID poorly compared to Asia and Africa The poor comparison to seasonal flu The economic benefits of aggressive action vs cost of soft lockdowns Why the vaccine doesn't mean countries should lift restrictions How investors and the business community can help end the COVID crisis

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Dr. Dirk Willer. He's a Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets FX and Fixed Income Strategy at Citigroup in NY. His research covers global emerging markets for FX, local rates, and credit. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the top team in the 2019 institutional investor survey for emerging markets strategy in FX and rates. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and at Swiss Bank as Russia strategist. He's also recently published an excellent new book called "Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner′s Guide". In this podcast we discuss: How markets treated the US election like an EM election Impact of Biden's win on major EM Why EM does well with the vaccine breakthroughs Which EM will do best in post-COVID world Will EM inflation pick up? Can EM survive higher US rates? Is China a good long-term buy? Should we be worried about Brazil's fiscal numbers? How much does EM depend on global factors? Trading rules for EM markets Books that influenced Dirk: Market Wizards, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. I had him as a guest in July when he argued that we could see a COVID vaccine around US election time. He was right and so I wanted to get his latest views. For background, Justin is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. Earlier this year, he published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and recently published in Foreign Affairs China's global role in vaccine distribution. In this podcast we discuss: The significance of Pfizer's 90% efficacy rate Vaccines from other pharma companies including from Russia & China The science of vaccines – B-cell and T-cell responses Fast tracking of vaccine approval by FDA Managing public opinion and anti-vaxxers Logistics of vaccine distribution When will we get to herd-immunity Remaining uncertainties around vaccines Mink factories and mutations Long COVID and athletes Which countries have secured vaccine supplies

The US election did not see the Democrat wave that many had expected, so I have US Presidential history expert of Cambridge University, Gary Gerstle, return to our podcast show. He gives his take on all things US elections and beyond. In this podcast we discuss: The parallel Presidencies of 1876 The current risks of unrest if the results are not certified soon What pollsters missed Were the Democrats too left or not left enough? How will Biden manage the left and a Republican Senate ahead of 2022 midterms The return of state rights over central government How a divided congress shifts power to the President and the Supreme Court The profound importance of the Republicans winning State legislatures Thoughts on a Georgia Senate run-off

Michael was Managing Director and Senior Research Advisor in Multi-Asset Strategies at BlackRock. Prior to that he was head of Currency and Fixed Income Research in the Global Market Strategies Group at BlackRock and Barclays Global Investors. Michael is currently Executive Director of the Master of Finance program and also serves as Executive Director of the Pacific Center for Asset Management at UC San Diego. He has been a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Board, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank for International Settlements. In this podcast we discuss: The difference between quantitative and fundamental investing How to systematically earn alpha in FX markets How to think about FX carry and momentum strategies Does flow data have any value? How the QE-era has fundamentally changed FX investing The importance of China and the Chinese yuan How to use machine learning for trading Why understanding transaction costs is critical How to benchmark the performance of currency managers Papers mentioned: Preserving Alpha: The Effect of Trade Size and Rebalancing Frequency on FX Strategy Returns and Active Currency Investing and Performance Benchmarks Books that influenced Michael: Active Portfolio Management and Autobiography of a Yogi

John Kay is one of the UK's leading economists. His books on the tax system, corporate strategy and banking have been widely praised. He helped establish the Institute of Fiscal Studies, is a fellow at St. Johns College Oxford, and was the first dean of Oxford's Saïd Business School. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of science for policymakers and why they do not use it more The problem with the focus on short-term earnings Why people are pro-social rather than individualistic Why the 1970s failed and later why neo-liberalism failed Why productivity could be under-estimated The problem with the rights movements The need for decentralization and disciplined pluralism How the EU helps the creation of smaller states Why regulation is helping big banks The importance for businesses not to obsess about profits Recent book that influenced John: The Secret of Our Success (Joseph Henrich)

Gary is Paul Mellon Professor of American History at Cambridge University. Before that, he was at Vanderbilt University where he was James G. Stahlman Professor of American History. He is a social and political historian of the twentieth century, with substantial interests in the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. He got his PhD from Harvard University. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. In this podcast we discuss: How Trump deviates from Republican orthodoxy How Biden could continue Trump's protectionist policies US climate-change related immigration challenges Historic parallels of protectionism and anti-immigration How Trump's break from democratic norms is unprecedented How Trump differs from Richard Nixon and Andrew Jackson When was the last time the US was as polarised as today The challenges of a Biden administration

Corey recently wrote an excellent piece on market liquidity and I had to have him as a guest. For background, he is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, a quantitative tactical asset management firm. At Newfound, he is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. He holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. In this podcast we discuss: How central banks have pushed investors up the risk curve How central banks have introduced moral hazard to investors The importance of passive investing as marginal flow into assets The impact of passive on how trades are executed The procyclicality of HFT liquidity provision How dealers hedging magnifies volatility shifts The prevalence of volatility contingent strategies in markets When do liquidity cascades end How to position of liquidity cascades Books that influenced Corey: Fooled by Randomness (Nassim Taleb) and Red-Blooded Risk (Aaron Brown)

Helen is Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University. She has been at Cambridge since 1994, and is at present, Deputy Head of the School of the Humanities and Social Sciences. She is a regular panelist on the excellent podcast show Talking Politics. She has recently been focusing on the political economy of oil, Brexit and the euro zone crisis. In this podcast we discuss: The current state-of-play in Brexit talks How state aid issues have become more importance since COVID The purpose and implications of the Internal Market Bill Why the EU wants a deal Could Boris Johnson face a leadership challenge? How Scotland could get an independence vote The challenge for Labour around England and Scotland UK's new flexible foreign policy balancing EU and US Should central banks target income inequality Books that influenced Helen: David Copperfield (Charles Dickens) and The Radetzky March (Joseph Roth)

Vitor was the Vice President of the ECB until a few years ago. And before that held numerous high-profile roles including being Portugal's finance minister, the central bank governor of Portugal and negotiating the entry of Portugal into the EEC – the forerunner to the EU. Vitor is currently President of the Council of ISEG at the University of Lisbon and a Professor at the Navarra University in Madrid.. In this podcast we discuss: The evolution of monetary policy since the 1970s Is there a limit to the size of central bank's balance sheet? How low inflation accelerated ECB QE Why central banks cannot control inflation perfectly Does the ECB target the euro Views on the Fed's new average inflation target and whether ECB will follow Why QE and loose fiscal policy is not MMT Should central banks target income inequality How the ECB can support climate change policies Why fiscal policy is needed more than monetary policy And Twitter footnote: Europe's two downside risks – delays in recovery fund disbursements and credit supply issues.

Charlie McElligott is the leading experts on all things positioning, flow, sentiment and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years' experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss: Understanding the impact of low real yields and "everything duration" trade How momentum and secular growth (tech) trades have converged Will value trades ever work? What indicators to use to identify sharp market reversals The importance of dealer gamma What happened during the summer melt-up in tech Views on recent market correction Favourite trades around US election Personal stuff: Charlie's paleo approach and longevity supplements Books: Jon Krakauer's "Into Thin Air"

Michael Pettis is someone who I have followed closely over my career and he is one of the most widely followed China experts in the investor community. He is currently based in Beijing and is Professor of Finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University and is the co-author of the recently published book "Trade Wars Are Class Wars". In this podcast we discuss: How economists don't understand debt Understanding when high savings rates work for countries How advanced economies investment needs changed since 1970s How trade surplus countries like China and Germany suppress the household wages and income Why China's high savings rates will now only lead to higher debt, rather than growth How Spanish workers are harder working than German workers How the US and UK are forced recipients of excess savings Why high debt levels lead to low rates The problem with official Chinese GDP data The importance of the US dollar as reserve currency Why the Chinese yuan will not collapse Recommended books: the works of Kindleberger, Adam Tooze's The Deluge, Eichengreen's Golden Fetters, Mark Nelson's Jumping the Abyss: Marriner S. Eccles and the New Deal, 1933-1940

I'm always on the lookout for podcast guests with unconventional backgrounds, and on this episode, we have one such guest, Lyn Alden. Lyn has an academic background in engineering and currently works at an aviation simulation facility. But on top of her day job, she has developed a widely followed framework for investing in markets. Her approach is value with a global macro overlay and she's been doing this research for over fifteen years. I learnt a lot in our conversation, and I'm sure you will too. In this podcast we discuss: The differences between today's tech boom and the dot-com period How she is currently playing tech stocks Finding value in international stocks and in quality stocks Metrics to use for quality Underappreciated sectors like tobacco and energy Views on Tesla, Amazon and Apple Looking at equally-weighted vs market-cap weighted stock indices Bullish on China tech How to think about debt cycles and the special case of Japan Bullish views on gold and bitcoin Book that influenced her: Big Debt Crises

In this episode, I talk with Professor Laura Veldkamp. Laura presented one of the key papers at the Federal Reserve's 2020 gathering at Jackson Hole. Her paper co-authored with Julian Kozlowski and Venky Venkateswaran on 'Scarring Body and Mind: The Long Term Belief Scarring Effects of COVID-19' will likely be viewed as a seminal paper in years to come. Laura is a Professor of Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and a co-editor of the Journal of Economic Theory. She's a frequent consultant for the New York and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks. She is also the author of the textbook, Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance. In this podcast we discuss: Importance of the knowledge economy How alternatives to rational expectation models need to be used when dealing with tail events The critical role of the reactions and belief scarring from events like pandemics Why the long-term costs of COVID will be ten times larger than the current year costs How safe haven assets will be in even more demand, which will keep rates low The role of data accumulation in economies The limits of big data A book that influenced Laura: Guns, Germs and Steel

In this episode, I talk with David Beckworth. David is the host of one of my favourite economics podcasts, Macro Musings. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former international economist at the US Treasury. He is the author of Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. His research focuses on monetary policy, and he has advised congressional staffers on policy. In this podcast we discuss: 1. What did the Fed do right and wrong in its COVID response 2. How the Fed is losing independence 3. The advantages of price level and average inflation rate targeting 4. Why nominal GDP/income targeting is the best approach 5. What has caused the 30y decline in US rates 6. How the Fed should be reformed 7. Books that influenced David: Secrets of the Temple and Less Than Zero

In this episode, I talk with Shahraab Ahmad. Shahraab was previously the Chief Investment Officer of the credit fund Decca Capital. Prior to launching the fund in 2015, he managed the Hutchin Hill Liquid Credit Strategy (2008-2013). From 2005 to 2008, he was a partner at Sailfish Capital, where he traded global relative value within credit, and prior to that, he was Co-Head of the HY Credit Trading Group at J.P. Morgan (1999-2004). In this podcast we discuss: The early years of CDS trading Transitioning from the sell-side to hedge funds How credit markets are less efficient today than in the past How the 2008 crisis compared to the 2001-2002 credit crisis The challenges of launching your own fund How he traded the COVID crisis Potential value in NY residential real estate The opportunities in Venezuelan bonds How to use SPACs to gain value How central bank QE could help hide corporate fraud The book that influenced his trading the most

In this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He's currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan.". He's an author too with his recent book published in 2014, which is called Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China". In this podcast, we discuss: How poor public health investment has made the recession worse Implications of the US's diminished role on the global stage Three reasons for the dollar's coming decline The problem with the lack of US savings Why investment has been too low The problem with Trump's China policy The need for Europe to stand up on the global stage Likely Biden policies if he wins Life after Wall Street

In this episode, I talk with Governor Dr Reza Baqir who became the 20th Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. He took the helm as Pakistan embarked on an ambitious reform plan which included an IMF programme. Before that, he was an 18-year veteran of the IMF and previously also worked at the World Bank. He was the Head of the IMF's Office in Egypt and Senior Resident Representative from 2017 to 2019. He has also held positions as IMF Mission Chief for Romania and Bulgaria, Division Chief of the IMF's Debt Policy Division, and Head of the IMF delegation to the Paris Club. His research has been published in top journals of the economics profession, including the Journal of Political Economy and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: 1. The state of Pakistan's economy and financial markets before COVID hit 2. The reasons for and status of the IMF programme 3. How Pakistan's markets behaved over COVID 4. The transition from a fixed FX regime to market-determined FX regime 5. The path of FX reserves 6. How the State Bank has shifted to an expected inflation target 7. COVID policies outside of cutting rates 8. Longer-term goals of boosting exports, financial inclusion and raising saving rates 9. How global institutions have responded to the COVID crisis versus GFC 10. The role of debt reduction rather than debt rescheduling for EM

In this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge. In this podcast, we discuss: Forget talks of V-, W-shaped recoveries, it will take years to return to pre-COVID output COVID adds to challenges of adapting to Fourth Industrial Revolution Why haven't real wages risen? Are we mismeasuring growth, investment and productivity? Why inflation won't rise meaningfully The pros and cons of MMT The surprisingly good EU budget/recovery fund Germany's U-turn on frugality The transition challenges of Brexit China's pressure cooker and India's steady release Climate change – a 5-degree temperature increase changes everything

In this episode, I talk with Edward Misrahi. Edward is the CIO and Founder of Ronit Capital – a leading emerging markets focused hedge fund. He founded the fund in 2013, before that he was a founding partner of Eton Park Capital. Edward started his career at Goldman Sachs – where amongst other things he worked in the famous Risk Arbitrage group and later become a partner. In this podcast we discuss: The 1994 Mexico crisis and learning how to buy distressed assets The 1997-1998 Asia/Russia/LTCM crisis and the importance of correlations The problem with hedging and importance of thinking of gross positions How to think about the US factor when trading EM markets The three ingredients of EM crises Be careful of overweighting politics Decluttering the investment process COVID's decoupling of markets and the economy Market risks still remain Which EM markets look good

In this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. He recently published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19. In this podcast we discuss: Current vaccine trials Absence of COVID-19 reinfections Why is vaccine development faster than before Low mutability of COVID-19 Symptoms of COVID-19 Why are minority groups experiencing higher infection rates Why are elderly being affected the most Views on the Sweden approach Why is the US death rate not higher Policy recommendation