Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University, He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Boom-Bust" Myth Recessions as "Apophonies" Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age Policy Hubris The 1785 Structural Break Supply Shocks as Choke Points Misnaming the 2001 Recession The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection Impairment of Creative Destruction Fidelity to Long-Run Trends

Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics vs. the Commodity Cycle China's VAT Rebate and Value-Added Strategy Critical Choke Points: Rare Earths, Graphite, and Gallium Regulatory Roadblocks and the Stigma of "Dirty" Mining The Abdication of Western Capital Markets Human Capital Gaps and the "Octogenarian Engineer" Problem Geoeconomic Pricing: Disincentivising New Capacity From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" Production Japan's "House of Brick" Model for Resilience The Mineral War and the "Soul" of AI A Shift Toward Oligopolistic Competition

Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Inevitable Escalation with Iran Iran's Decentralised Resilience The Rise of Mojtaba Regional Retaliation Strategy The Hormuz Choke Point Modern Tanker War Risks 8 Million Barrels Offline Limits of the Global SPR Sentiment-Driven Volatility Houthi Autonomy and the Red Sea

Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from McGill University. In this podcast, we discuss: Fantasy Baseball to Prop Trading Diversification as the "Free Lunch" Gold vs. The Chinese Credit Bubble Silver as the "Money that Generates Electricity" The "Long API, Short Slides" Thesis China's Sceptical Data Copper vs. Iron Divergence The Future of Systematic Investing

Raphaël Gallardo is Chief Economist within the Cross-Asset team at Carmignac. Carmignac is a leading European investment management boutique established in 1989, with over EUR 40 bn in assets under management. Raphaël joined them in 2018. He started his career in 1997 at BNP Paribas, where he spent ten years as a Quantitative Analyst within the Risk Department, a Country-risk Economist, a Financial Engineer specialising in interest rate risk, and ultimately a cross-asset strategist. In 2007, he joined Axa IM as Head of Macroeconomic Research and moved to Rothschild & Cie Gestion in 2012 to occupy the same position. From 2013 to 2018, he was Cross-Asset Strategist at Ostrum Asset Management. Raphaël holds an Engineering Degree from École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris. In this podcast, we discuss: Austrian Economics Framework Three "Wobbling" Bubbles The "Sad" AI Bubble Trump Risk Parity Portfolio Spain's "Virtuous Circle" France's Fiscal Existential Risk Japan's Vicious Circle China's Dual Economy Death of the Risk-Free Asset 2026–2027 Outlook

Alex Gurevich is the founder of HonTe Investments. After earning a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago, he leveraged his passion for strategic gaming into a lucrative Wall Street career. He has been hailed by The Wall Street Journal as the star trader of J.P. Morgan, where he served as Managing Director in charge of global macro trading and, in 2020, was leading HonTe's macro strategy when he ranked second by net return according to BarclayHedge. Alex is the bestselling author of The Next Perfect Trade and The Trades of March 2020. In this podcast, we discuss: The 10-Year "Test of Time" Retrospective The "Swim with the Tide" Framework Rethinking "Tight Stops" in Risk Management Strategies to Overcome Portfolio Paralysis Betting on the "Necessary" vs. "Sufficient" Japan's Search for the "Perfect Trade" The Case for the Fed Returning to 0% AI-Driven Technological Displacement Energy as the "Bottleneck" for AI Growth Evolving Views on Option Usage

Marc Elovitz is Global Head of Investment Management Regulatory at McDermott Will & Schulte – a leading global law firm. Marc advises private fund managers on running their businesses consistent with all relevant laws, regulations and legal requirements. Marc's cutting-edge work also covers the latest trends of interest to private funds, including blockchain technology and digital assets. He advises on the legal and regulatory considerations involving virtual and digital currency business initiatives and the blockchain technology behind them. In this podcast, we discuss: From Litigation to Regulation The Private Market Boom "Project Crypto" and Regulatory Harmonisation Beyond Digital Gold The Yield Obstacle in Stablecoins Future-Proofing Digital Assets The Trust Factor in Private Equity Solving the AI Explainability Crisis The Delaware Governance Battle Perspective through Fiction

Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – an approximately $17 billion investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company. Before joining Trout, he worked for Price Waterhouse in auditing and corporate finance. In this podcast we discuss: The Multi-Strategy Investment Approach The Selective "War for Talent" Adapting to Trump 2.0 Volatility Targeting Real Returns vs Gold AI: A Digital Tool, Not a Total Bubble Redefining Value in the Digital Age Japan's Shareholder Value Pivot Centralised Planning Risks in China Patience in Tight Credit Markets The 2026 Macro Outlook You can get more information on Sean's firm here The commentary contained in the above article/podcast does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.

Srividya Jandhyala is a professor of Management at ESSEC Business School in Singapore. Her research focuses on global strategy, geopolitics, and international business. She is the author of the best-selling book 'The Great Disruption: How Geopolitics is Changing Companies, Managers, and Work'. Before ESSEC, she was a Fung Global Fellow at Princeton University. She also served on the faculty of George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and she received her PhD in Management from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics as a Structural Headwind The End of the "Flat World" Why Corporate Nationality Trumps Product Lessons from Mining and Energy Sectors The Jenga Tower of Global Friction Sovereign AI and Geopolitical Tech China's "Singapore" Playbook The Erosion of the Rules-Based Order Localization and the "Societal License" to Operate The Shift from "Event-Based" Thinking

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: Trump's Bullish Paradox Importance of China's SPR Why OPEC+ Hiked Production The "Oil on Water" Overhang Venezuela and Iran 2026 Outlook US Shale's H2 Roll-over Long term demand outlook

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about: US Labour Market Dissonance Trump's "Elizabeth Warren" Populism The Productivity Mystery Fed Under Pressure Sticky Inflation Through 2027 Global Business Disruptions Extreme Oil Volatility Japan's Policy Pivot China's Sluggish Consumer European and UK Growth Historical Parallels to Populism

Robert is Founder, Chief Investment Officer and the Managing Partner of the $5bn EM fund, Gramercy. He founded Gramercy in 1998. Robert has 36 years of investment experience dedicated to emerging markets with a specialization in distressed opportunistic credit strategies. He is a member of Gramercy's Management Team and is Co-Chair of the Risk Management Committee. In this podcast we discuss: EM in 2025: From Caution to FOMO EM vs DM: A Role Reversal Since COVID The Problem with EM Labels & Indices China: From 'Uninvestable' to Selective Opportunity Russia–Ukraine: Asymmetry, Reconstruction, and Market Blind Spots The Boom in EM Private Credit Where the Opportunities Are in EM Private Credit Mexico, NAFTA 2.0, and Geopolitics Venezuela and the 'Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' Fed Policy: The Only Conviction Is Lack of Conviction Portfolio Philosophy: Fighting FOMO and Overtrading

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss: Tripolar World (TPW) - regional integration in Asia, Europe, and Americas. Global growth long cycle driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate across regions. China-US AI competition The shift from chip quality to power costs as the key AI competitive advantage. Brazil and Spain's clean energy plays Why 2025 is not like the 2000 dotcom bubble Private credit opportunities Attractive China tech valuations China's five-year plan Europe's potential Countries pressuring institutions to invest domestically rather than in US markets.

Ken Tropin is a legend in the macro space. He is the Chairman and the founder of Graham Capital Management (GCM) - $20bn fund. Ken founded GCM in 1994 and has grown the firm into an industry leading alternative investment manager focusing on global macro discretionary and quantitative hedge fund strategies. Prior to founding GCM, Ken had significant experience in the alternative investment industry, including five years (1989 to 1993) as President and Chief Executive Officer of John W. Henry & Company, Inc. and seven years (1982 to 1989) as Senior Vice President and Director of Managed Futures at Dean Witter Reynolds. In this podcast we discuss: Investment philosophy Differentiation from multi-strat funds Talent recruitment strategy; NY office Fed outlook Term premium as underpriced US deficit concerns and duration risk in long-end rates AI and technology Global central bank divergence Inflation pressures Private credit Dollar view Geopolitical risks Robin Hood Foundation