Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: 1) How the Fed is setting policy based on the latest inflation print. 2) Why the Fed has lost its bearings in its inflation strategy. 3) Why a terminal Fed Funds Rate around 8% is likely. 4) Why the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey tells us more about inflation than growth. 5) Why the Fed could struggle to slow the economy. 6) What investors should look out for. 7) Why higher demand for consumer durables could be the new normal. 8) Whether the US will go into recession in 2023 You can follow Dominque's work here

Thorsten spent twenty years trading equity derivatives and was a partner at Bear Stearns. He was also head of equity derivatives at Panmure Gordan and Head of Trading Warrants and Structured Products at WestLB. Currently, he educates and lectures on derivative markets. On this podcast we discussed a simple explanation of options, how to understand volatility, and how to trade VIX. He also gave his views on skew and the volatility smile, how to manage your options position, understanding the greeks – delta, gamma, theta, and the different players in the options market. Finally, on a more personal note, Thorsten shared the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefvre), and Atlas Shrugged (Rand).

Stéphane is CEO and Co-Founder of FRNT Financial – a crypto-focused investment bank. He began his capital markets career working in the Equity Products group on the trading floor at BMO Capital Markets (BMO) in 2010 as a Cash Equity Sales Trader. He eventually transitioned into BMO's hedge fund sales trading group and added coverage of equity options and equity swaps. In 2018, Stéphane left BMO to start FRNT Financial. In August 2019, Stéphane was elected Chairman of the Canadian Security Traders Association (CSTA) following a term as Vice Chairman. On this podcast we discussed use cases for crypto, why the differences between Ethereum and bitcoin are exaggerated, what to look out for when investing in crypto, and much more.

Jay spent 40 years in international finance, including at Elliot Management and Lehmans. His primary focus was on distressed EM sovereign debt. He was central to the historic 15-year fight to recover billions of dollars in defaulted Argentine debt. That campaign, which included the court-approved seizure of an Argentinian Navy ship in Ghana with 200 people aboard in 2012, reached a successful conclusion in 2016. The Wall Street Journal reported that the settlement was worth $2.4 billion, a gain of roughly 10 to 15 times the original investment. The Financial Times said the settlement 'is seen as one of the greatest hedge fund trades' in history. Jay has now switched to writing with his debut novel, about dark money and global politics, Undermoney. On this podcast we discussed how to sue a country, how countries like Russia evade sanctions, how illicit money is moved through central banks, and much more.

Mike is the Chief Executive Officer of ReSolve Global Asset Management. He has over 29 years of experience in investment management and is responsible for investment decisions, coaching, and strategic leadership. He has co-authored the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times – and Bad. Before his investment career, Mike played professional football. In this podcast, we discussed how to invest in different stages of the business cycle, whether valuations matter, the benefits of machine learning and much more.

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Tymofiy Mylovanov is the President of the Kyiv School of Economics, advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky and former Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture. He is currently focused on humanitarian work for Ukraine. In the podcast, we talk about the real reason for Russia's invasion, the three levers of economic power Russia has over the world, the state of the Russian army compared to Soviet times, and much more.

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about why recession risks are overstated, whether real earnings will increase, energy investment and higher inventories as the new normal, and so much more.

John is a commodity guru amongst other things. He has 25 years of experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks on both sides of the Atlantic in research, strategy, asset allocation, and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world's largest institutional and private investors in matters ranging from wealth preservation to enhancing returns through a wide variety of innovative strategies, and he has been ranked the #1 Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and The Golden Revolution (John Wiley and Sons, 2012), and The Golden Revolution, Revisited In this podcast we discuss why the inflation pressures will remain, why the dollar is vulnerable, risks of escalating global conflicts, and much more.

Dan Zwirn is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Arena Investors LP. Arena is a $3.4 billion global investment firm focusing on special situations asset and credit investments in corporates, real estate, structured finance, and corporate securities. Before founding Arena in 2015, between 2009 and 2015, Dan founded and/or led several specialty finance enterprises including Applied Data Finance (a consumer finance company), North Mill Capital (an asset-based lender), and Lantern Endowment Partners (an investment fund). In 2001, while a founder of the Special Opportunities Group at Highbridge Capital Management, Dan, along with Highbridge, co-founded D.B. Zwirn & Co., a global special situations firm, which grew into a $6 billion enterprise. In this podcast we discuss, the problem with niche investors, why global bottom-up investing works, the big risks for the next 12 months, and much more.

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Josh Young is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests – an investment firm that focuses on the publicly traded oil and gas sector. He has over 15 years of experience in investment management, 10 of which were focused on publicly-traded oil and gas securities. Josh became Chairman of the Board of RMP Energy in 2017. After refreshing the board and management team and rebranding the company (Iron Bridge Resources), it was bought out at a 78% premium in 2018. Before this, Josh was a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms, and then an investment analyst at a private equity fund. Josh worked as an energy investment analyst for a multi-billion-dollar, single family office. In this podcast we discuss: Understanding the energy sector, the cost of drilling, impact of ESG on the energy sector, and why oil input isn't higher. He also discussed the structural supply issues for the energy sector, the investment needs to maintain supply, the regulatory pressures on supply, if the Middle East can step up supply, and the best to get exposure to energy. On a more personal note he also revealed the books that influenced him the most: The First Billion Is the Hardest (Pickens) and Fooling Some of the People All of the Time (Einhorn).

Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime's BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss: Why understanding perception, judgment and decision-making matters, how your unconscious affects your decision making, the particular challenge of trading and investing in markets, the role of emotions and why we can't ignore them, and the difference between emotions and impulse. She further discussed how to understand conviction levels, using intuition over impulse, how to incorporate emotions into your dataset, traits of successful traders, and how to set up a hedge fund. On the more personal side she revealed the books that influenced her the most: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: Why Powell and the Fed reacted late to inflation, comparison to Volker period, if the Fed has a framework, and how strong the Fed Board is. She further discussed why the US labour market is weaker than most think, why structural inflation is still low, why the US will enter a recession, unintended consequences of Russia-Ukraine War, and much more.

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Andy Constan has spent the past 33 years investing and trading global markets. He's worked at leading hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy started his career at Salomon Brothers. He is the founder of Damped Spring Advisors. In this podcast we discuss: What Andy learned from Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, setting up all-weather portfolios, the problem with bonds, and how to outperform the market. Andy further talked about using flow and position data and macro news, the impact of mortgage convexity hedging on bonds, what is next for the Fed, and whether equities are overvalued. Finally, he discussed his views on inflation, his favourite trades, and the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities (Fabozzi), Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (Hull), Principles: Life and Work (Dalio) and Liar's Poker (Lewis). For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com.

Timothy is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss: Why Timothy has been expecting a larger conflict since 2015, western exposure to Russia and ESG, Putin's motivations, and why NATO expansion is not the core issue. He also talked about the scale of the sanctions, chances of regime change in Russia, why the conflict won't end soon, how China fits into the picture, and why this is a globally systemic event.

Jurrien is the director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. Fidelity is the one of the largest asset managers in the world. He is part of Fidelity's Global Asset Allocation group, where he specialises in asset allocation and global macro strategy. He has held various other roles at Fidelity, including director of market research and technical research analyst. He also co-managed Fidelity Global Strategies Fund from 2007 to 2014. Before joining Fidelity in 1995, Jurrien was a vice president in the Fixed Income group at ABN AMRO Capital markets in New York. He has been in the financial industry since 1985. In this podcast we discuss: How the Russia/Ukraine conflict will impact markets, the importance of energy prices, whether non-US stocks can outperform, and current parallels to the late 1960s. Jurrien also discussed the case for S&P500 at 8000, why the 1970s parallels could be overstated, how to fit crypto into your portfolio, and the difference between bitcoin and the rest. Finally, Jurrien revealed the books that influenced him the most: Going to Pieces Without Falling Apart (Epstein) and The Art of Loving (Fromm). For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. John is the Kenneth C. Griffin Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. His new book is The Voltage Effect: How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale. He has worked with firms such as Lyft, Uber, Citadel and several non-profits. His academic research includes more than 200 peer-reviewed journal articles and several published books. John was elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2011 and a fellow of the Econometric Society in 2015. He is a current editor of the Journal of Political Economy. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of field experiments and scaling in economics, what John learned at Uber, and the optimal way to get tips. He also discussed how to avoid false positives, thinking about spillovers and network effects, avoiding the cost trap, and how to incentivize scaling. On a more personal side, John revealed the books that influenced him the most: Wealth of Nations (Smith), The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Smith), Anna Karenina (Tolstoy), Principles of Economics (Marshall), Economics (Samuelson), Elementary Principles of Economics (Fisher).

Greg is a Special Writer at The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of A Shot to Save the World: The Inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine. The book has been optioned by HBO for a series from Academy Award winning director Adam McKay. Greg is also the author of the bestseller: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution. In this podcast we discuss: Why Big Pharma did not develop the COVID vaccine, how the vaccine was developed so quickly, key players in vaccine development, and what mRNA and adenovirus vaccines are. Greg also gave his views on the outlook of vaccine breakthroughs for other diseases, what made Jim Simons the top investor of all-time, and the importance of culture. On a personal note, Greg shared the books that influenced him most: Den of Thieves (Stewart) , Liar's Poker (Lewis), Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough) and Indecent Exposure (McClintick).

Tania Reif is Founder and CIO of Senda Digital Assets. Prior to her cryptocurrency focus she built her investment pedigree at top macro hedge-funds including Soros Fund Management, Laurion Capital, Citadel and Alphadyne Asset Management. She was profiled in the 50 Leading Women in Hedge Funds 2017 survey by The Hedge Fund Journal. Her career spans public policy beginnings at the International Monetary Fund and experience in the banking industry at Citgroup's Economic and Market Analysis team. She holds a PhD in Economics with Distinction from Columbia University where she earned the Jagdish Bhagwati International Economics Award for her work in currency dynamics. In this podcast we discuss: Lessons learned from macro investing, why you should leave macro for crypto, what drives crypto prices, and understanding the unique aspects of crypto. She also talks about crypto valuations, what the crypto market cap tells us, where yields come from in DeFi, the future of the metaverse, and lessons in launching a crypto fund.

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) is the author of The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing educational macroeconomic insights & actionable investment ideas. Previously, he was the head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio for a large European bank. In this podcast we discuss: How money is created, where the credit cycle is right now, why the European growth cycle looks better than the US, and ECB hikes. On trades, Alf discussed long EUR/USD and long NASDAQ/short Russell trades and how asset swap trades work. We also talked about Draghi and Italian risks, China's credit cycle turn, and long China real estate trade. Finally, Alf revealed his favourite trade - US 2s10s flatteners, and the books that influenced him the most: Pragmatic Capitalism (Roche), Inside the House of Money (Drobny) and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics (Koo).

Adam is a Managing Director and Global Head of G10 FX Options Trading at Goldman Sachs. Prior to this, he was an FX Volatility Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, and he has worked as a vanilla and exotic FX options trader at Barclays Investment Bank in London. He is the author of Foreign Exchange: Practical Asset Pricing and Macroeconomic Theory (forthcoming, 2022), and Volatility: Practical Options Theory (2018). Adam holds a PhD in financial mathematics and economics from Imperial College London, an MSc in applied mathematics from Oxford University, and an MSci, and BA in physics from Cambridge University. In this podcast we discuss: Why investors and traders need to understand finance theory, risk premia strategies, and understanding risk premium through umbrellas and rainy weather. We also covered the common risk premia strategies in FX markets, where currency volatility comes from, options markets, rules of thumb for trading options, and when to use options. Finally, on the more personal side, Adam revealed the books that have influenced him the most: Asset Pricing (Cochrane) and End of Alchemy (King).

Shahin Vallée is head of the Geo-Economics Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Before the German Council, Shahin was a senior economist for Soros Fund Management, and also served as a personal advisor to George Soros. Prior to that, he was the economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron at the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance, where he focused on European economic affairs. Between 2012 and 2014, Shahin was the economic advisor to President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy. In this podcast we discuss: How Europe fits into the US-China conflict Europe's nuclear energy dilemma Russia/Ukraine risks Chances of Euro break-up If the EU fiscal policy changed after COVID Whether the ECB will hike in 2022 Whether Macron wins the French elections in April Germany in a post-Merkel world Books that influenced Shahin: Lords of Finance (Ahamed) and The Alchemy Of Finance (Soros)

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. Prior to forming Morgan Creek in 2004, Mark was President, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of UNC Management Company, the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, from 1998 to 2004. Until 1998, Mark was the Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office where he joined as the Assistant Investment Officer in October of 1993. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of the asset allocation decision rather than trading The investment value of ownership The problem with the 60:40 model The coming debt default How to manage risk Innovation as an asset class Understanding the crypto revolution How to pick the right crypto markets and avoid Ponzi schemes Favourite coins/tokens Favourite equity sectors and bonds for 2022 Learning from star investors Books that influenced Mark: The Alchemist (Coelho) and The Tao Jones Averages (Goodspeed)

Mark Stanwyck is the Co-Founder of Avalaunch - the first protocol, exclusively for the Avalanche ecosystem, to offer projects a platform for decentralized fundraising. Rick Seeger is the Co-Founder of Oh! Finance - an optimized yield-generation protocol. In this podcast we discuss: Comparison of layer one protocols from Ethereum to Avalanche Use cases in crypto How GameFi works How traditional gaming companies respond to GameFi Ways in which DeFi offers high yields What the criteria are to determine the risk of DeFi yields Whether Coinbase and other centralised exchanges impact DeFi How fundraising works in crypto Comparisons of VC vs decentralised user-driven fundraising Books that influenced Mark and Rick: The History of Money (Weatherford) and The Compound Effect (Hardy)

Ari Paul is co-founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital. BlockTower is a crypto and blockchain investment firm, applying professional trading, investing and portfolio management to this digital asset class. It is funded by well-known investors such as A16z and Union Square Ventures. Before BlockTower, Ari was a portfolio manager for the University of Chicago's $8 billion endowment, and a derivatives market maker and proprietary trader for Susquehanna International Group (SIG). In this podcast we discuss: How to value bitcoin Understanding drivers of crypto markets What flows have driven crypto in recent years? Business for exchanges like UniSwap The real benefit of crypto is co-ordination power Trends in layer one protocols like Ethereum and Solana Will switch to Proof of Stake make a difference? What stage of hype cycle are Metaverse and DeFi tokens? Risk is about sizing positions Books/articles that influenced Ari: Money, blockchains, and social scalability (Nick Szabo), Shelling Out: The Origin Of Money (Szabo), Debt: The First 5000 Years (Graeber)

On this special episode, we turn the tables and Bilal becomes the guest as Andrew Simon, our COO of Macro Hive and business partner, does the interviewing this time. Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive. Prior to this, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019. Before that Bilal held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 including Head of Multi-Asset Research, Advisor to the CEO, Head of Asia Research in Singapore and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research. Bilal started his career at J.P. Morgan in 1998. In this podcast we discuss: [3:03] - Lessons learned at JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Nomura [ 38:22] - Views on inflation and why yields are low How to understand the market impact of COVID Tech booms and crypto What economists get wrong about tech New frontier of the digital economy China's challenge [01:21:48] Favourite investment lessons Advice to new starters in finance Productivity tips Books that influenced Bilal: The Black Swan (Taleb) Beginning of Infinity )Deutsch), Superforecasting (Tetlock, Gardner) The Great Crash 1929 (Galbraith) Liar's Poker (Lewis) A Technique for Producing Ideas (Young) It Doesn't Have to Be Crazy at Work (Fried) Bloomberg (Bloomberg) The Rumi Collection (Rumi, Helminski) The Complete Works of William Shakespeare (Shakespeare) Meditations (Aurelius) How To Improve Your Marriage Without Talking About It (Lowe, Stosny) Non-Violent Communication (Rosenberg) Raising Boys and Raising Girls (Biddulph)

Fabio is a Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF. He is responsible for the Global Financial Stability Report that gives the IMF's assessment of global financial stability risks. Prior to joining the IMF, Fabio was a Senior Associate Director in the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board. Between October 2016 and June 2017, Fabio was Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Financial Stability and Regulation at the U.S. Department of Treasury. In this podcast we discuss: How COVID shocks transmit to markets and the economy Why haven't bankruptcies picked up? The likely impact of Omicron How to know if inflation will be transitory How leveraged are markets? What are the risks to China? How stable are stablecoins? The investment challenge for climate policy Books that influenced Fabio: Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough, Helyar), The Divine Comedy (Dante)

Omicron, the name of the new Covid-19 variant that has recently emerged, caused panic across the world and a selloff in risk on Friday. Following an influx of questions from The Hive, we held an urgent webinar to discuss the strain and its potential impacts on financial markets. Professor Justin Stebbing of the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial College London joined us to provide his expert opinion. Justin has published in The Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and in Foreign Affairs on China's global role in vaccine distribution. To explore the possible economic and financial market implications, Macro Hive CEO Bilal Hafeez and Senior Strategist Dominique Dwor-Frecaut provide their views.

Nancy Davis is the founder and managing partner of Quadratic Capital Management. She is the portfolio manager for The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL). She founded Quadratic Capital in 2013. She began her career at Goldman Sachs where she spent nearly ten years, the last seven with the proprietary trading group where she rose to become the Head of Credit, Derivatives and OTC Trading. Prior to starting Quadratic, she served as a portfolio manager at Highbridge Capital Management where she managed $500 million of capital in a derivatives only portfolio. She later served in a senior executive role at AllianceBernstein. In this podcast we discuss: Why ETFs are attractive wrappers for active strategies How best to capture true inflation risk The pros and cons of investing in TIPs How to think about spread exposure Taking advantage of the shape of forward curve to fund option premium How the IVOL strategy performed during COVID Are real yields too low? Risks for 2022 including stagflation

Edward Glaeser is Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He is perhaps the world's leading expert on cities. He recently authored, along with David Cutler, Survival of the City – Living and Thriving in the Age of Isolation. Edward leads the Urban Economics Working Group at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and co-leads the Cities Programme at the International Growth Center. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration. In this podcast we discuss: What defines a city? How have pandemics impacted cities across history? Why are people healthier in cities than in rural areas? Why is there large inequality within cities? Importance of education What led to the urban renaissance of the 1990s Why didn't tech revolution end cities? Will Zoom revolution change cities? What lead to growth of Silicon Valley Factors that drive gentrification Three recommendations for helping cities. Edward's book recommendations: The Death and Life of Great American Cities (Jacobs), Nature's Metropolis: Chicago and the Great West (Cronon), Regional Advantage: Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128 (Saxenian), Framing the Early Middle Ages (Wickham) and Origins of the European Economy (McCormick)

Rolf Strauch is Chief Economist and Management Board Member of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which he joined in July 2010. These entities provide financial assistance to euro-area countries experiencing financing problems. Rolf represents the ESM and EFSF in European fora and negotiates with Member States. Prior to this, Mr Strauch worked at the European Central Bank from 2000–2010 and served previously as an economist at the Deutsche Bundesbank. In this podcast we discuss: How successful were the European rescue packages during the euro sovereign crisis? How did the economic policy response to COVID of Europe compare to the US? How the ESM is changing Outlook around Europe's Next Generation EU stimulus The growth of the common EU bonds and green bonds How advanced is Europe's banking union? Can Europe's capital markets grow to US levels? Impact of Brexit on EU institutions Euro-area growth outlook Recommended books: The Globotics Upheaval (Baldwin)

Alex Gurevich is the Founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, LLC. Alex has been involved in trading for over 20 years; holding various roles on Wall Street that included the launch of fixed income derivative trading franchises as well as running the macro book at JP Morgan. More recently, Alex has transformed his very successful family office into a global macro strategy suitable for institutional investors. He is the author of The Next Perfect Trade (2015) and soon to be published The Trades of March. Alex was born and raised in St. Petersburg, Russia and earned his PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago. On this podcast we discuss: How games like chess, go and poker can help your investing Why sticking to take profits and stops is important Which markets follow valuation Alex's experience of trading COVID in March 2020 and lessons learned How to think about the current inflation debate US real yields could head lower Recent front-end sell is overdone Australia could be a stand-out market Dollar view Why equities don't follow the economic cycle Books that influenced Alex: Lord of the Rings (Tolkien), On Being Certain (Burton) Sci-fi book recommendations: Hyperion (Simmons), Ender's Game (Card), Rise of a Merchant Prince (Feist), The Dagger and the Coin (Abraham), Expanse (Corey)

Scott is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks, a platform for investing in art markets. Scott has been an active collector of contemporary art for more than fifteen years and has built an internationally-recognized collection of Abstract Expressionism that has included works by Clyfford Still, Barnett Newman, Mark Rothko, Willem de Kooning, and more. In addition to Masterworks, Scott serves on the board of v2 ventures (Adparlor, Giant Media, Reachmobi, Amply, and Sellozo), Payability, and the Brooklyn Rail (a non-profit publication in the art industry). In this podcast we discuss: What determines the value of art Importance of gallery representation and marketing How liquidity has evolved in the art market Where the main buyers of art are from How different segments of art market have performed What the expected return of art is How art correlates to other asset classes When art has underperformed Examples of artists whose art has performed well: from Basquiat to Gilliam How investors can get exposure to art Views on NFT Books that influenced Scott: Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman) and Competitive Strategy (Porter)

Azeem is the creator of Exponential View, a leading platform for in-depth tech analysis. His weekly newsletter is read by 200,000 people from around the world, and his podcast has featured guests including Yuval Noah Harari, Tony Blair and Kate Raworth. A member of the World Economic Forum's Global Futures Council, Azeem contributes to publications including the Financial Times, Wired and the MIT Technology Review. His new book is called Exponential: How Accelerating Technology Is Leaving Us Behind and What to Do. In this podcast we discuss: The four technologies driving exponential age What's different between today and previous tech transitions How tech companies defy conventional understanding Why productivity has been low Climate change and productivity Understanding US/China/Europe tech rivalry Importance of big tech in dealing with cyber risk Books that influenced Azeem: Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (Perez) and Letters to a Young Poet (Rilke)

Boris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated to. In this podcast, we discuss: What is reverse goldilocks? Parallels and differences to 1970s stagflation The challenge of the current regime How will policymakers respond? What gives central banks credibility? What does it mean for macro environment? Views on China How will equities, bonds and FX perform Why terms of trade matter

Marc is author of Net Interest – a leading weekly newsletter on the world of finance. Before this, Marc spent ten years at leading hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, where he was a partner and portfolio manager. This was after he spent time on the sell-side working for Barclays Investment Bank (BZW), Schroders and then Credit Suisse, where he was head of the European banks research team. In this podcast we discuss: How to predict financial crises How are financials different from other companies What do banks price-to-bank ratios tell us? Can banks rebrand themselves as fintech? What are the key fintech trends How will credit evolve Is the crypto challenge to finance real? How to do well in angel investing Why have private equity firms institutionalised better than hedge funds What is the state of sell-side research? Books that influenced Marc: Fooled by Randomness (Taleb), Origin of Wealth (Beinhocker) and The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot).

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Dr. Anas Alhajji is a leading energy markets expert, and advises governments, companies, and financial institutions on energy markets. He focuses on oil and gas market outlook, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on the supply and demand of energy. He is the Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, and was previously the Chief Economist of NGP Energy Capital Management. He is also a contributing editor for top industry publication: World Oil. Before moving to industry, Anas taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado School of Mines and Ohio Northern University. In this podcast we discuss: False ideas around what drives oil prices What supply and demand drivers matter Why OPEC doesn't matter Why peak oil is wrong Why bearish oil demand forecasts on ESG/climate change are wrong How governments and companies are not acting on carbon neutrality How Iran oil supply has continued despite sanctions Oil underinvestment in oil producing nations Saudi, US and Russian oil supply outlook The Arctic oil play China's dominance in oil markets The rise of private generators Book that Anas rates: Kuwait in the Time of British Empire (Khajah)

Richard is a co-founder and Managing Partner at Fabric Ventures – a VC fund adapting the early, technical, and patient approach of venture capital to investing in Web 3.0 and decentralised data networks. Fabric invested in the likes of Polkadot, Ocean Protocol, Orchid, Blockstack, zeppelin_os, and Keep, among others. Richard combines a pedigree in open source, developer-oriented tools, and early-stage venture investing with blockchain focus since 2013, and has invested in Pantera Venture Fund, Bitstamp, Bitrise, Tray.io, Transferwise, and Citymapper. Richard was previously a 3x software entrepreneur, building/ scaling Automic (CA), Tideway (BMC), and Orchestream (Oracle) – reaching a cumulative market cap of billions. In this podcast we discuss: Starting companies versus investing What makes start-ups and their founders successful What returns should one expect in VC What is the Open Economy and Web 3.0 Centralisation vs decentralisation Books that influenced Richard: Strangers in a Strange Land (Heinlein), Future History (Heinlein), Atlas Shrugged (Rand), and The Third Chimpanzee (Diamond)

David has over 30 years' experience of managing risk across global markets. David is the CIO of Singapore-based Convex strategies - which focuses on risk management including protecting against dislocations in asset markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, he served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust and Bank of America. David holds an MBA from University of California, Berkeley. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). In this podcast we discuss: The confusion between measuring risk and managing risk The problem with value-at-risk and defining risk What is convexity Why buying options is not 'expensive' Importance of compound returns over arithmetic returns How to think about ergodicity Why allocation to bonds don't provide the right downside protection Getting your defense right, insurance and long vol strategies The role of central banks in shifting equity-bond correlations The importance of time in convexity strategies The growing fragility in the financial system Managing correlation risk Books that influenced David: How Nature Works (Bak), The Misbehaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Incerto Collection (Taleb), The Road to Serfdom (Hayek), Ubiquity (Buchanan), Radical Uncertainty (King)

Todd Edgar has over 28 years' experience in financial markets. He has spent the last 2 years as CIO of Atreaus Family, a family office, allocating capital to equities, rates, commodities, FX, Crypto and real estate. Prior to that, he spent 9 years as Founder of Atreaus Capital, a global macro hedge fund with a peak AUM of over $3bn. He also served as Global Head of Macro Proprietary at Barclays Capital and before that as Global Head of the Commodities and FX Proprietary Trading at JPMorgan. Todd has also been a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corp. He graduated from the University of New South Wales, Sydney, currently lives on Long Island, NY. In this podcast we discuss: Challenges of running a hedge fund How have markets changed since the global financial crisis (2008) Approach to investing Reasons for being long China bonds PBoC the new Bundesbank Are commodities in a new supercycle? How to think about inflation Views on crypto markets How to avoid losses impacting your future performance Advice from Paul Tudor Jones Book that influenced Todd: Market Wizards (Schwager) and Trading in the Zone (Douglas)

David is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. In that role, he was responsible for the bank's views and forecasts for developed and emerging sovereign bond yields and exchange rates. He was earlier at Barclays Capital, Citigroup and the IMF. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss: Why news media has become more politicised The impact of globalization on inequality What explains countries with high COVID cases Why Trump was right on vaccine vs COVID elimination COVID to remain a factor in coming years Return to stagflation Mnuchin under-rated as Treasury Secretary, Yellen over-rated Supply-side policies/inequality under Trump The fundamental shifts in US-China relations China tech policy is what Biden wishes he could do Book that influenced David: Predictioneer (de Mesquita)

Nikhil recently published an influential investment report titled 'Ethereum, The Triple Halving', and has been researching cryptocurrencies and the Ethereum ecosystem since 2020. Outside of markets, Nikhil is an incoming medical resident at University of Colorado internal medicine. Nikhil completed his undergraduate degree at Rice University where he studied Philosophy and Cognitive Science. He then completed his medical school at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. In this podcast we discuss: Key differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum Consensus algorithms: proof-of-work vs proof-of stake The selling pressure of miners on Bitcoin The triple halving for Ethereum Impact of EIP1559 and halving Base case price target for Ethereum of $30,000-$50,000 Dynamics of an overshoot to $150,000 The growth of staking derivatives Can Cardano and Solana dislodge Ethereum Future of NFT and the metaverse Book that influenced Nikhil: Doing Good Better (MacAskill)

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of "Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today" and is the coauthor of "The Book of Alternative Data", which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: 1. Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry 2. How to design good trading models 3. Avoiding data mining 4. Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded 5. Why trend-following models have underperformed 6. Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows 7. Importance of reducing transaction costs 8. Types of alternative data 9. How to use news data 10. The non-technical challenges of using alternative data 11. Why Python is an important complement to Excel

Alberto is Head of Global Credit strategies and Portfolio Manager of the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities fund, a global strategy investing in bonds, credit and equities. Prior to Algebris, Alberto was Managing Director and Head of Global Macro Credit Research at RBS (2011-2016). His team was top ranked in Institutional Investor's All-Europe Fixed Income survey for Investment Grade, High Yield Research and Fixed Income Strategy, for four years running. Previously, Alberto was a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York (2007-2011) and previously he was at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch in London (2004-2007), where he co-authored some of the early research on the credit derivatives market.In this podcast we discuss: The challenge to neo-liberal capitalism Biden's push for infrastructure and future trade policy China's paradox markets vs centralisation COVID accelerated history Corporate inequality The effects of QE infinity The barbell approach to investing in a low yield world Favoured sectors Europe vs US equity allocations Why EM risks are high Inflation persistence Lessons learned as an investor Books that influenced Alberto: In Defence of Open Society (Soros), The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Popper), The Myth of Capitalism (Tepper), The Hidden Wealth of Nations (Zucman et al), Geopolitical Alpha (Papic), Homo Deus (Harari) and Brave New World (Huxley)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Anna founded Sonya Capital Management in December 2016. Prior to that, Anna spent over twenty years at Citigroup, where she oversaw a multi-billion dollar balance sheet and large teams of traders as the Head of the Strategic Trading Desk, Co-Head of Risk Treasury and Head of the Agency MBS trading desk. Anna traded through eight central bank tightening and easing cycles and a few financial crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial crisis. When she left Citigroup, the WSJ featured her as 'Citigroup's last proprietary trader'. She graduated with honours from Princeton University with a degree in Mathematics. In this podcast we discuss: Difference between trading on the sell-side versus at own fund Framework used to invest in markets How to use flow information to validate views The value of machine learning How to identify market regime changes The impact of risk transfers on market volatility How bubbles can be rational The difference between high-frequency trading and macro Views on the current reflation theme Two major risks: US tax changes and China decoupling Market to watch - yen Views on crypto markets Books that influenced Anna: The Second Machine Age (Brynjolfsson, Mcafee), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)

Roger is a former diplomat, development banker, and capital market development advisor, who twice served in the British Embassy in Beijing, and is the author of the highly acclaimed Coming Alive: China After Mao, which explained how Deng Xiaoping won the struggle to succeed Chairman Mao Zedong and what he would do with his power. He has recently published a provocative new book China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom. In the podcast, we talk about: Why China is outwardly strong and inwardly weak The debt and efficiency problems of the state sector The role of corruption The centralisation of power around President Xi How a top-down coup could occur in China The role of the US in forcing regime change How COVID has impacted the Chinese political structure Why China is more fragile today than in the past Books that influenced Roger: The Bible and Capitalism and Freedom (Friedman)

Cross-exchange arbitrage in crypto How lending works in bitcoin and crypto Futures and interest rates on bitcoin Dynamics of the May bitcoin correction Divergence between US and China trading On-chain features and smart contracts Yield farming Issues around Tether Types of investors in crypto Call over-writing strategies Books that influenced Roshun: The Beginning of Infinity (Deutsch), The Selfish Gene (Dawkins), Sapiens (Harari), The Sovereign Individual (Davidson), The Energy World Is Flat (Lacalle and Parrila), and The Three-Body Problem (Liu)

Dr. Charles D. Ellis is the founder and former managing partner of Greenwich Associates, an international consultancy where he advised large institutional investors, foundations, and government organizations in more than 130 financial markets across the globe. He taught investment management courses at the Yale School of Management and at Harvard Business School. He sat on the Board of Directors of The Vanguard Group. In addition, Charley was a successor trustee of Yale University, where he chaired the university's investment committee with David Swensen. He is the author of a number of books including Winning the Loser's Game, which has recently come out in its 8th edition. In the podcast, we talk about: Why it has become harder for investors to outperform the market The rise of highly professional investors The difficulty of finding good investment managers The poor returns of investment managers The importance of time in assessing performance Market timing versus factor investing The impact of monetary policy on markets The problem with bond investing Outlook for equity returns Understanding your total portfolio Think over long time horizons and importance of character Benefit from intelligence of others through index investing Books/articles that influenced Charley: Warren Buffet's annual letters, The Theory of Investment Value (John Burr Williams), Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings (Philip Fisher), Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd), Inside the Yield Book (Martin Leibowitz), Pioneering Portfolio Management (David Swensen)

Christian Angermayer is an entrepreneur and investor and the founder of Apeiron Investment Group, his family office and merchant banking business. Apeiron focuses on Financial Services (especially fintech and crypto assets), Technology, Life Sciences, Media & Entertainment and Real Estate & Prop-Tech. In the podcast, we talk about: What has helped Christian become a successful investor and entrepreneur The positive history of psychedelics The medical potential for psychedelics in mental health Classifying ageing as a disease Breakthroughs in longevity medicine Why healthcare systems are so costly How money printing is reshaping the economy The transition from linear growth to exponential growth The US-China rivalry The future of crypto currencies What to know about space tech Why invest in movies Books mentioned on podcast: The Immortality Key (Muraresku), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan) Book that influenced Christian: Think and Grow Rich! (Hill), The Law of Attraction (Hicks)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Josef Ackermann is the former chairman of the management board and the group executive committee at Deutsche Bank. Ackermann joined Deutsche Bank's board of managing directors in 1996, where he was responsible for the investment banking division. He is also former chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus. Ackermann studied economics and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen, where he earned his doctorate. In the podcast, we talk about: Managing Deutsche Bank around the global financial crisis Banker compensation and bonuses Why European banks have underperformed US banks The need for European bank consolidation How will fintech disrupt banking The importance of capital markets in Europe The future of asset management Passive vs active investment. How Western financials can benefit from China Book that influenced Joe: Faustv (Goethe), In Search Of Excellence (Peters), Built To Last (Collins), The Effective Executive (Drucker), The One Minute Manager (Blanchard)

John Butler has 25 years' experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world's largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book 'The Golden Revolution'. In the podcast, we talk about: Why stagflation is here The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans The moral hazard of Fed policy Why was inflation low after the global financial crisis? The absence of excess capacity and parallels to 1970s How to play a stagflation theme Is there a commodity supercycle? The future path of gold Why bitcoin won't replace the dollar (or gold) The importance of risk management Book that influenced John: Money and Magic (Binswanger)