Episode 48
Jon Turek on the New Fed Put, the Brainard US Curve Steepener and the Dollar
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez · Bilal Hafeez
January 29, 202139m 59s
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Show Notes
Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss:
- How to think about the Fed's new framework.
- The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener!
- Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time.
- Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength.
- How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade.
- Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates.
- Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated.
- Are equities expensive?
- Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work?
- Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).