The Real Investment Show Podcast
3,290 episodes — Page 18 of 66
4-24-24 What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?
Was Lance Roberts eaten by cannibals? (He will return tomorrow!) How Tesla fell out of the Magnificent Seven; Tesla's storage technology vs cheaper Chinese EV's & the future of EV's. The true environmental impact of building EV's. The RIA 8-Ball predictions for PCE. What does realistic retirement look like? The impact of inflation, the Retirement Clock, & you. A discussion on the need for guaranteed income; how Gen-z will retire & the DNA of Super-savers. Educational goals and vocational training. Candid Coffee recap; the public are the best economists. Professional vs Trade careers & new hires' earnings; the impact of AI on personal skills. SEG-1: Tesla Falls off the Magnificent Seven SEG-2: What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like? SEG-3: How Gen-Z will Retire: The DNA of Super-savers SEG-4: Why the Public Are the Best Economists Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMvKYdHl_Ik&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Economic Warning From The NFIB" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-warning-from-the-nfib/ "Fed Chair Jerome Powell Suggests "Higher For Longer" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "We Are Not Likely Done with Correction" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyAp7xhaf_c&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Five Financial Mistakes to Avoid if You're Retiring Within Five Years" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQEosrIqf14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RealisticRetirement #VocationalEducation #FinancialPlanning #FederalReserve #InflationAdjustedSales #EconomicPerformance #EconomicWeakness #RetailSales #NFIBConcerns #SmallBusinessSales #EmploymentImpacts #ConsumerSpendingTrends #MaximizingBenefits #MarriedCouples #Longevity #SpouseConsideration #Viability #Markets #Money #Investing
4-23-24 Five Financial Mistakes to Avoid if You're Retiring Within Five Years
Market Commentary: Are there more declines to come? What is the path forward for 5% Bonds? PCE and more earnings reports coming; How to crossover from accumulation to de-cumulation; topic teases: Keeping more of your inheritance; how to increase your inheritance. How to manage funds qwith legacy intent in mind. The important of financial planning before retirement; what is the rate of return you need? The importance of budgeting; financial mistakes you should avoid within five years of retirement; dealing with the rule changes. Dealing with and planning for Social Security. What is the income threshold for converting from pre-tax to Roth IRA? SEG-1: Market Commentary: Are the more declines to come? SEG-2: How to Manage Funds with Legacy Intent in Mind SEG-3: Five Financial Mistakes You Should Avoid Before Retirement SEG-4: Dealing with & Planning for Social Security Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQEosrIqf14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Economic Warning From The NFIB" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-warning-from-the-nfib/ "Fed Chair Jerome Powell Suggests "Higher For Longer" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "We Are Not Likely Done with Correction" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyAp7xhaf_c&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "We Are Likely Not Done with Correction" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAHAa6I5Qv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=55s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #LegacyFunds #SocialSecurity #FinancialPlanning #FederalReserve #InflationAdjustedSales #EconomicPerformance #EconomicWeakness #RetailSales #NFIBConcerns #SmallBusinessSales #EmploymentImpacts #ConsumerSpendingTrends #Markets #Money #Investing
4-22-24 Powell Suggests "Higher For Longer"
After six days of market declines, is the Correction done? Election risk scenarios & market volatility; markets do not like uncertainty. PCE preview (the inflation gauge the Fed pays attention to). Markets break the 50-DMA, and are now sitting on the 100-DMA. The unsurprising uptick in inflation and the impact of higher raates; why commodities matter. Higher for longer, for not much longer: Rates must come down; NFIB preview. Hey, what happened to all the Ukraine aid US taxpayers propvided? Inflation is a function of supply & demand; where is the higher demand going to come from? Looking ahead to this week's PCE number, expecting the markets to bounce: Sell into the rally. SEG-1: Is the Correction Done? SEG-2: The Unsurprising Uptick in Inflation SEG-3: Higher for Longer, not much longer SEG-4: Economic Warnings from the NFIB Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAHAa6I5Qv8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=55s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Economic Warning From The NFIB" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-warning-from-the-nfib/ "Fed Chair Jerome Powell Suggests "Higher For Longer" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "We Are Not Likely Done with Correction" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyAp7xhaf_c&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Did You Pay Your Fair Share of Taxes?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vA51KE4ECT4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InflationAdjustedSales #EconomicPerformance #EconomicWeakness #RetailSales #NFIBConcerns #SmallBusinessSales #EmploymentImpacts #ConsumerSpendingTrends #Markets #Money #Investing
4-22-24 We Are Not Likely Done with Correction
Markets have had a complete washout after six straight days of declines. The broke the 20-DMA, took out the 50-DMA, and markets didn't even breathe. As of Friday, we're sitting right on the 100-DMA, as we don't think this correction is yet finished. We do expect a rally up to about 5100, with the potential for another retest of the 100-DMA, and possibly even lower. There is now the possibility of a market rally up to a level of resistance, followed by another leg lower, before this correction is complete. Alternatively, we could have another rally straight up, depending upon how the current earnings season goes. Watch for a little sloppiness over the next few weeks; don't knee-jerk react right away to market moves, and use a rally to sell-into to reduce risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyAp7xhaf_c&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OversoldMarket #RebalancingRisk #MarketSupport #MarketCorrection #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #50DMA #100-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
4-19-24 Did You Pay Your Fair Share of Taxes?
Markets respond to Israel attack on Iran; Procter & Gamble disappoints; markets are in a churning phase. Fed rate decisions & market behaviors. How much do you really need to survive in retirement (What's your number?) Managing expectations, spending habits, and dependency on Social Securituy; the scinece & art of financial planning; retirement realities. The intimate process of deliverying financial plans; Candid Coffee preview. The three phases of retirement: Go-go, Slow-go, & No-go. Real Investment "'Shrooms." Tax Foundation survey: Do you pay your fair share of federal taxes? SEG-1: Markets' Respond to Middle East Tensions SEG-2: How Much Do You Really Need to Reitre? SEG-3: Delivering Financial Plans & Real Investment Shrooms SEG-4: Do You Pay Your Fair Share? Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vA51KE4ECT4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Are We On Japan's Path Of Stagnation?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-we-on-japans-path-of-stagnation/ "Immigration And Its Impact On Employment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/immigration-and-its-impact-on-employment/ "Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/reflation-trade-is-the-new-bullish-narrative/ "Cracks Appear In The Market's Bullish Armor" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Do You Buy or Sell Into the Bounce?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gBp0qyKXwo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are We On Japan's Path to Stagnation?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOlwvCrHCKM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PayingTaxes #FairShareOfTaxes #TaxFoundation #MiddleEastTension #IsraelAttacksIran #FinancialPlanning #ThreePhasesofRetirement #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
4-18-24 Are We On Japan's Path to Stagnation?
Husband Appreciation Day, Mother's Day, cooling Middle East tensions; the is the Fed allowing the system to percolate? Inflation remains sticky. Markets in correction mode; what happens when the 50-DMA breaks? What to do when the market bounces. Is Fd policy tight enough? The market and the Fed are, for once, on the same page. Foreign buyers' participation in auctions is good; markets are too driven by headlines and algorithms. Gen-Z "discoveries" and remakes of '80's movies; commentary on the good music of the late 1900's. Is higher inflation sustainable? The give and take in inflation metrics; CPI is mostly about shelter prices; the problem with CPI data. Caitlin Clark/WNBA pay vs NBA pay: The economics of sports. Where salaries come from, and understanding what's behind the headlines. Retail Sales in Feb vs Mar; full time vs part time jobs; the impact of immigration on employment. SEG-1: The Fed is Allowing the System to Percolate SEG-2: Is Fed Policy Tight Enough? SEG-3: Messing with Movies & Music; Is Higher Inflation Sustainable? SEG-4: NBA vs WNBA & The Economics of Sports Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOlwvCrHCKM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Are We On Japan's Path Of Stagnation?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-we-on-japans-path-of-stagnation/ "Immigration And Its Impact On Employment" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/immigration-and-its-impact-on-employment/ "Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/reflation-trade-is-the-new-bullish-narrative/ "Cracks Appear In The Market's Bullish Armor" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Do You Buy or Sell Into the Bounce?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gBp0qyKXwo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Screw Up Retirement in 12 Easy Steps" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2y2E5G1sn4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JapansEconomicStagnation #ReflationTrade #JeromePowell #InterestRateCuts #HotterInflation #StickyInflation #TransitoryInflation #PermatoryInflation #InvestingAdvice #GenZDiscovery #80sMusic #WNBA #NBA #CaitlinClark #SportsEconomics #Markets #Money #Investing
4-18-24 Do You Buy or Sell Into the Bounce?
Markets are still in a correction mode, and we've been talking about a looming correction since January, with markets continuing to grind higher along the 20-DMA. When the 20-DMA broke, the computer buying algorithms were tripped. Now we're down about 4% from the peak, working off the initial 5% of the correction. (Fibonacci primciple explained here.) After four-straight says of selling, markets are getting over sold, and preparing for a bounce. The question now becomes, whether to buy the bounce, or sell into the bounce? Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gBp0qyKXwo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OversoldMarket #RebalancingRisk #BreakTheTrendline #MarketSupport #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #50DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
4-17-24 How to Screw Up Retirement in 12 Easy Steps
Market Recap, Jerome Powell on rate cuts and stickier inflation; commodities on the rise = inflation. The CRB Index correlation with W. Texas Crude; no rate cuts until Fall? Markets break the 50-DMA; might be time to trim and rebalance for risk. Jury Duty and the Reflation Trade; Easter + Spring Break impact on March retail sales were underwhelming, following similar disappointment with February & Valentine's Day sales. How long can "buy-now, pay-later" last? How to screw up your retirement; the only way to wealth is by saving money; investing is for protecting wealth against inflation. The HODL Plan (hold on for dear life); avoid speculation. The demographic line of demarcation in saving for retirement; paying off credit cards, saving 30% of income; fully-fund 401-k. SEG-1: No Rate Cuts Until Fall? SEG-2: Reflation Trade is the New Bullish Theme SEG-3: How to Screw Up Your Retirement SEG-4: Retirement's Demographic Line of Demarcation Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2y2E5G1sn4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Reflation Trade Is The New Bullish Narrative" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/reflation-trade-is-the-new-bullish-narrative/ "Cracks Appear In The Market's Bullish Armor" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "It May Be Time to Rebalance Risk" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYegngcRPlM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Cracks Appear in the Market's Bullish Armor" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr7-b1dqWM0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=23s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #ReflationTrade #Retirement #JeromePowell #InterestRateCuts #HotterInflation #StickyInflation #TransitoryInflation #PermatoryInflation #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
4-17-24 It May Be Time to Rebalance Risk
Markets have broken the 50-DMA, which certainly says we're in the process of correction. We're on a very defined MACD Sell Signal, markets are oversold, and declining; we are expecting a bounce. We're oversold enough for a counter-trend rally, which should take us back to the 50-DMA: That is the point at which you should lighten up some positions, if needed, and do a little rebalancing. This does NOT mean to cut weight in general. Look for opportunities to rebalance risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYegngcRPlM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OversoldMarket #RebalancingRisk #BreakTheTrendline #MarketSupport #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #50DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
4-15-24 Cracks Appear in the Market's Bullish Armor
Tax Day woes and audit fears; earnings season commences; What are companies saying? No corporate buybacks, removing major buyers of assets; pay attention to companies' guidance. Markets last week failed at 20-DMA, and tested 50-DMA as momentum slowed. Is not the time to sell? Use any bounce to rebalance risk, but avoid any knee-jerk reactions. Could this be a "buy-the-dip moment?" Lance's favorite bowl is like the market: There's a hairline crack. Inflation has been stickier, and higher-for-longer interest rates have been too high for too long. Preview: Tuesday's article on the Reflation Trade; how can every other country in the world have deflation while the U.S. continues to have inflation? Productive debt sv non-productive debt. Get ready for Tax Season impact on the market; more Americans are owing money this year. More IRS Agents = More audits = more returns/refunds delayed. The possibility of escalation in the Middle East; Legos for Adults (AFOL) SEG-1: Tax Day Woes & Earnings Season Starts SEG-2: Could This Be a Buy-the-Dip Moment? SEG-3: Cracks in the Market SEG-4: Tax Day Woes, Middle East Foes, & Adult Legos Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr7-b1dqWM0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=23s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Cracks Appear In The Market's Bullish Armor" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is Now the Time to Sell?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpOOSOWZewk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Deal with Financial Stress" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fmpb8xnN448&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TaxDay #EarningsSeason #FinancialStress #MoneyScripts #JeromePowell #VolkerMoment #HotterInflation #StickyInflation #TransitoryInflation #PermatoryInflation #Cryptocurrency #MoneyManagement #DoorDash #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
4-15-24 Is Now the Time to Sell?
Markets last week failed at the 20-DMA, and began to test the 50-DMA as momentum began to slow. The narrow trend channel had begun weakening, and the break in the 20-DMA was the first crack to appear in the market's bullishness. The question now is: Do you Sell? By the time markets have confirmed a sell signal, they're already oversold. Don't forget that we're still in the seasonally strong period of the year, and we're moving into what is likely to be a fairly good earnings season. So don't over-react; use whatever rally we get today or tomorrow to rebalance risk in your portfolio. Move slowly and avoid knee-jerk reactions. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpOOSOWZewk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OversoldMarket #RebalancingRisk #BreakTheTrendline #MarketSupport #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #50DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
4-12-24 How to Deal with Financial Stress
CFP testing results & commentary on professional credentialling; the importance of the Health/Wealth connection; the importance of continuing education (CE); a brief history of JP Morgan and "too big to fail." Inflation is permatory, not transitory. Profit margins are not great because costs are up. Jerome Powell is trying to put out a fire with a water pistol; how many ate cuts now? There is still too much money in the system to really tame inflation. Real Wages have peaked: Is this Jerome Powell's "Volker Moment?" What clients "think" about portfolios is the toughest thing for advisors to manage. If Trump is elected, he will have to deal with the next recession. April is stress-awareness month; why we don't sleep. Rosso's Brooklyn paper route, Candid Coffee preview, & dealing with Financial Stress. Intimidating financial topics: Cryptocurrency, Investing, & Budgets. Cryptocurrency is very speculative, very volatile. Budgets are like financial vegetables. Learning money management & writing your money script; tipping trends; the "Waiting" movie; shy we don't use Door Dash. SEG-1: CFP Test & Credentialing, Importance of Health to Wealth SEG-2: Is this Jerome Powell's "Volker Moment?" SEG-3: Rosso's Paper Route & Dealing w Financial Stress SEG-4: Learning Money Management & Writing Your Money Script Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fmpb8xnN448&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is Gold Warning Us Or Running With The Markets?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-gold-warning-us-or-running-with-the-markets/ "Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/margin-debt-surges-as-bulls-leverage-bets/ "Inflation Scare Or Much Ado About Nothing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Break the Trendline?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgN81AwIyRU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Can Social Security Be Saved?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NiGgvTMiQg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FinancialStress #MoneyScripts #JeromePowell #VolkerMoment #HotterInflation #StickyInflation #TransitoryInflation #PermatoryInflation #Cryptocurrency #MoneyManagement #DoorDash #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
4-11-24 Is Inflation Too Hot to Handle?
CPI Inflation clocks in hotter than expected, with more data to come; car insurance inflation is an out-of-the-blue surprise (unless you recently renewed your policy!) What does the Fed do next? Markets are pricing-in NO rate cuts in June...and maybe not at all this year. Markets trace the 20-DMA, building a rounded top as momentum slows; beginning to confirm a take-down of the 20-DMA. Economic growth is slowing; insurance inflation spike "smells like" an adjustment; it's a lagging indicator. Homeowners equivalent rent is also a lagging indicator. It's not a question of if, but when inflation will fall, but prices are still sticky. Inflation still a function of supply & demand, and there's ample supply remaining, pushing prices and rents downward. S&P & Gold: The risk in slowing momentum; we're still in a bull market (until we're not)./ Markets are priced for 5-10% correction. There are no warnings from credit spreads, so far, but corporate loans are starting to show some concerns. What the Leveraged-loan Market is saying: defaults are on the rise. The NFIB Small Business Survey this time was really bad;. There are lots of inconsistencies in economic data. The impact of illegal immigrants on employment; gold is in a bubble. SEG-1: Inflation is Hotter Than Expected SEG-2: Economic Growth is Slowing: Normalistically SEG-3: The Risk in Momentum Loss SEG-4: Is Gold in a Bubble? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1SiTbo-Ow&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is Gold Warning Us Or Running With The Markets?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-gold-warning-us-or-running-with-the-markets/ "Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/margin-debt-surges-as-bulls-leverage-bets/ "Inflation Scare Or Much Ado About Nothing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Break the Trendline?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgN81AwIyRU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Can Social Security Be Saved?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NiGgvTMiQg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #HotterInflation #StickyInflation #TheGoldBubble #MarketsTest20DMA #CPI #SupplyAndDemand #DebtIssuance #ProductiveDebt #NonProductiveDebt #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
4-11-24 Will Markets Break the Trendline?
Last year's market rally amid the AI chase and hopefulness for Fed rate cuts tracked right along a narrow channel around the 20-DMA. Then came Summer, and a market correction that hit in October. Markets formed a rounded top during that action, which is what we're beginning to see currently. Markets have operated similarly in a defined range along the 20-DMA and are now developing another rounded-top as the market starts to lose momentum. Theoretically, markets could take out last Thursday's low today...a process that is beginning to confirm a break in the trendline that goes all the way back to last year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgN81AwIyRU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BreakTheTrendline #CPI #InflationIsStillHot #MarketSupport #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #50DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
4-10-24 Can Social Security Be Saved?
It's CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee's science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small businesses:Sentiment falls to a new low based on poor sales. There remains a dichotomy between headline economic news and what's happening behind the scenes. Markets break below the 20-DMA, but regain support. Why what really matters is the data the Fed looks at. Portfolio Spring Cleaning; Five or six ways to save Social Security (but first, a history of SS); the mathematical realities. Why Pensions face the same problems; how to fix it; lock it off. Any viable solution is un-electable. The IPO saga of Truth Social; IPO behaviors. Never buy an IPO out of the gate. DJT still has much to prove. If only you'd invested in Microsoft back then...no one knew. SEG-1: CPI Day, She-jack's Science, Markets Hang on SEG-2: The Data the Fed Looks At SEG-3: Five Ways to Save Social Security SEG-4: The Saga of Truth Social & IPO Behaviors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NiGgvTMiQg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/margin-debt-surges-as-bulls-leverage-bets/ "Inflation Scare Or Much Ado About Nothing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Hang Onto Support...barely" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K1zTxVBKu0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Margin Debt Surges as Bulls Leverage Bets" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzMKfkVjs3g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SocialSecurity #HotterInflation #MarketsTest20DMA #RetirementMath #DaveRamseyIsWrong #ConsumerConfidence #CPI #SupplyAndDemand #DebtIssuance #ProductiveDebt #NonProductiveDebt #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
4-10-24 Markets Hang Onto Support...barely
Markets continue to hang onto support at the 20-DMA by its fingertips. Expectations are for a .3% increase in inflation last month. (There's a mini-scandal swirling over the BLS releasing the data early to a few select banks.) [This report was recorded before the release of inflation numbers, up .3% m/m and up 3.8% y/y.] The change in calculating rent inflation raises the question of whether we're measuring the data or just manipulating it. A weak print will put us back on track of the 20-DMA trendline; a hot print could break support, pushing us towards the 50-DMA. If we get something close to expectations, markets may not do a lot today. Markets are hinging on expectations for rate cuts in June, which a weaker print would suggest will happen. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K1zTxVBKu0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #InflationIsStillHot #MarketSupport #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #50DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
4-9-24 Margin Debt Surges as Bulls Leverage Bets
Some are disappointed the eclipse did not herald the Rapture; markets are holding firm at 20-DMA. NFIB preview vs CEO Confidence; why small business' mood matters. Interest Rates in different states; no change in bullish market trend (why not to knee-jerk react to market); but trend weakness is become more apparent. Consumer confidence vs Valuation (w/charts); why margin debt is like dynamite. Correction is coming, and will feel worse due to greed. The cost of margin debt as rates rise. Earnings Season preview: Are Regional Banks in trouble? Q1 guidance has been lower: What happens if interest rates do not fall? The magic number: $1.4-Million & The Flawed Math of Retirement; why Dave Ramsey is wrong; what realistic rates of return should be; Luxury goods vs S&P; rare whiskey vs colored diamonds. SEG-1: Eclipse Recap, Markets Hold Firm SEG-2: Consumer Confidence vs Valuation SEG-3: The Cost of Margin Debt SEG-4: The Flawed Math of Retirement Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzMKfkVjs3g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/margin-debt-surges-as-bulls-leverage-bets/ "Inflation Scare Or Much Ado About Nothing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is the Bullish Trend Weakening?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg2KiRn3wBE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Inflation Scare Overblown?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCV8FsVyw_k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=37s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SolarEclipse #MarketsTest20DMA #RetirementMath #DaveRamseyIsWrong #ConsumerConfidence #CPI #SupplyAndDemand #DebtIssuance #ProductiveDebt #NonProductiveDebt #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
4-9-24 Is the Bullish Trend Weakening?
Our advice to NOT have a knee-jerk reaction to last Thursday's markets dip below the 20-DMA was well founded, as markets were able to hold on to that support. As of this moment, last week's break in the 20-DMA has been negated: There has been no change in the markets' bullish trend. A key clue may be a decline in price momentum, however. What we need to watch for now is a close this week below the 20-DMA, which would confirm this weakness. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eg2KiRn3wBE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketSupport #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #50DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Is the Inflation Scare Overblown? (4/8/24)
Eclipse-mania is out of control. Fed speakers confirm they'll cut rates, but in no rush to do so. Jobs numbers tantalize markets; the impact of immigration on employment. Boomers & Gen-Z plans to splurge on groceries in 2024. Markets takeout the 20-DMA; will the break be confirmed this week? Putting Inflation into proper perspective; the three measures of inflation. The economic basics of Supply & Demand (and their impact on inflation). Your personal inflation is not the same as mine. What markets pay attention to (CPI). How to fix the power grid: Productive vs un-productive debt. Forgiving student loan debt doesn't make the debt go away; taxpayers will shoulder the burden of the unpaid debt. SEG-1: Solar Eclipse Day; Markets Test 20DMA SEG-2: The Three Measures of Inflation SEG-3: Inflation & The Basics of Supply & Demand SEG-4: Debt Issuance & Economic Activity Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCV8FsVyw_k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=37s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Inflation Scare Or Much Ado About Nothing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Confirm a Break of the 20-DMA?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnA1TqbUguY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujhW-HlRJGaPa9tDN_GthEg&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are You Really Ready for Tax Day?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYfjniJpIkc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SolarEclipse #MarketsTest20DMA #ThreeMeasuresofInflation #CPI #SupplyAndDemand #DebtIssuance #ProductiveDebt #NonProductiveDebt #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
Are You Really Ready for Tax Day? (4/5/24)
Market and economic data preview: How to respond in current environment. The U.S. is still the best house in a bad neighborhood. Fed folks now saying it's possible to have no rate cuts this year. Are you really ready for Tax Day? Danny & Jonathan run through some tips and strategies. The advantages and distinctions of IRA's vs Roth's: Tax liability now or later? What are the odds of taxes going up in the future? How to handle being retired and going back to work. How does this affect RMD's? How to think ahead strategically about taxes in retirement. Rather Roth for younger workers. The advantages of HSA's. How to pay for weddings: Vendors vs gifting; wedding cakes vs photos. How to deal with Social Security clawbacks. Market futures, gold, and oil commentary.es vs photos. How to deal with Social Security clawbacks. Market futures, gold, and oil commentary. SEG-1: A Tale of Two Economies: The Have's & Have-not's SEG-2: Are You Really Ready for Tax Day? SEG-3: Back to Work & RMD's SEG-4: How to Pay for Weddings & Deal w Social Security Clawbacks Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFA, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYfjniJpIkc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Japans Lost Decades: Are We On The Same Path" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/japans-lost-decades-are-we-on-the-same-path/ "Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-corrections-matter-more-than-you-think/ "Q1 Earnings Season Approaches" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Bernie Madoff Trendline Remains in Effect" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecmypMh1FPI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is America Mirroring Japan's Lost Decade" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTNuUiRW5fo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TaxDay2024 #SocialSecurityClawbacks #WeddingExpenses #TaxLiablity #TaxesInRetirement #JapansLostDecade #BernieMadoffTrendline #MarketVolatility #MarketComplacency #AlanStanford #SolarEclipse #TaiwanEarthquake #SupplyChainDisruption #MarketCorrectionsMatter #Q1EarningsExpectations #LowMarketVolatility #RiskOfMarketCorrection #CaliforniaMinimumWage #IncreasedLaborCosts #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
Is America Mirroring Japan's Lost Decade? (4/4/24)
In this week's Fedapolooza, Fed spokespersons seem to be growing less hawkish about rates. Inflation is simply a function of supply & demand. There is a high correlation between GDP/CPI and interest rates. When inflation comes down, so will rates. Watching tomorrow's employment report: ADP is a poor predictor of BLS data. The Bernie Madoff trendline remains intact in markets; bullish sentiment is very high; bear sightings on Wall Street are rare. Technical trends of inflation are falling as the economy slows; comparisons of Japanese and U.S. economies; discussion on the economic impact on younger generations. Central Bank dominance: Control of markets destroys capitalism. Capitalism is eroding. Discussion of Capitalism vs Socialism and excessive government intervention: What the public demands. Inflation is the spark for public demand for fiscal support. Transportation and health services costs are up; housing is down (but lagging). 7% inflation was a supply/demand problem, which has been resolved. Supply-side and demand-side are both normalizing. Does the BLS report really matter anymore (because of the way it is calculated)? The "unemployed" can make more working for Uber than on unemployment benefits. Bernie Madoff, Alan Stanford, and the perfection of the 20-DMA; the saga of the Bernie Madoff whistleblower. Why markets are no longer based on fundamentals. The Madoff Line and the Wealth Gap. SEG-1: This Week's Fedapolooza SEG-2: Japanese Economics: From the Rubble to the Bubble SEG-3: Capitalism vs Socialism & Government Intervention SEG-4: Bernie Madoff, Alan Stanford, & 20-DMA Perfection Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTNuUiRW5fo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Japans Lost Decades: Are We On The Same Path" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/japans-lost-decades-are-we-on-the-same-path/ "Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-corrections-matter-more-than-you-think/ "Q1 Earnings Season Approaches" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Bernie Madoff Trendline Remains in Effect" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecmypMh1FPI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Could Powell Eclipse Market Expectations" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loIQra4zl7Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JapansLostDecade #BernieMadoffTrendline #MarketVolatility #MarketComplacency #AlanStanford #SolarEclipse #TaiwanEarthquake #SupplyChainDisreuption #MarketCorrectionsMatter #Q1EarningsExpectations #LowMarketVolatility #RiskOfMarketCorrection #CaliforniaMinimumWage #IncreasedLaborCosts #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
The Bernie Madoff Trendline Remains in Effect (4/4/24)
The Bernie Madoff Trendline remains in place: Monday and Tuesday's selloffs were followed by Wednesday's recovery after bouncing off the 20-DMA trendline. The buying algo's kicked in to buy thie dips. Bullish sentiment is very high; there have been few bear sightings on Wall Street, of late. Margin debt is back on the rise, as well, which is also supportive of rising asset prices. Volatility remains extremely low. There is no concern, no risk, and much investor complacency. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzLHu1gSp44&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=3 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BernieMadoffTrendline #MarketAlgorithms #BullishMarketSentiment #MarginDebtReturns #RisingAssetPrices #MakretVolatility #UnstoppableMarket #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Could Powell Eclipse Market Expectations (4/3/24)
The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators). The data might not be as strong as we think. The difference between Fed promises and predictions can be vast. Markets remain in a "perfect" trend channel; what happens when the 20-DMA is broken? Commentary on the coming solar eclipse, and markets' historic behavior following. What matters is what happens for the 12-months after such an event. Correction is coming. Answering emails: Stocks vs Bonds in current environment; managing risk is key. What happens to those in all-cash positions when rates fall? Gold & Silver may be doing very well, but are detached from current market reality; they will correct. Taiwan earthquake effects on semiconductor sector: A potential disruption could be coming. Baltimore bridge disruption. South Korea exports as economic indicator; dental floss & Kroger points: The struggle is real. SEG-1 The Difference Between Fed Promises & Predictions SEG-2: How Stocks Perform Following Eclipses SEG-3: Email Answers: Stocks vs Bonds in Current Environment? SEG-4: Potential Impact of Taiwan Earthquake Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loIQra4zl7Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-corrections-matter-more-than-you-think/ "Q1 Earnings Season Approaches" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is the Markets' Unstoppable Rally Reaching its Conclusion? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNQ2U7sRi9M&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Market Corrections Matter More than You Think" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DUOXdv6rOo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SolarEclipse #TaiwanEarthquake #SupplyChainDisreuption #MarketCorrectionsMatter #Q1EarningsExpectations #LowMarketVolatility #RiskOfMarketCorrection #CaliforniaMinimumWage #IncreasedLaborCosts #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
Is the Markets' Unstoppable Rally Reaching its Conclusion? (4/3/24)
Markets have been in a "perfect trend channel" for months, the top of which runs right along the 20-DMA. Today will be a test of this phenomenon again. Just because we may violate the 20-DMA does not mean to go out and sell everything. The subsequent rally needs to fail, and we need to see a confirmation of a break of the 20-DMA before taking any action. So if, on Friday, we are below the 20-DMA, and fail to get back above it, we will then have a better warning sign of the unstoppable rally potentially petering-out (this will eventually happen; it's just a matter of time). Do not have a kneejerk reaction to the first freak; let it confirm. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNQ2U7sRi9M&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #UnstoppableMarket #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Market Corrections Matter More than You Think (4/2/24)
Markets delivered a post-April Fool's drop, while manufacturing metrics moved back into the expansion zone. Markets have now dropped the chances of a June interest rate cut to 50%; markets continue to trade in a particular range. The April 15 Tax Day bump may not materialize this year with the expiration of previous tax law. Gold is on a catch-up trade; will rotation trades continue? Investor sentiment remains high. The bullishness of Ken Fisher; Gains vs Declines: Market Math explained. The Truth about promised returns vs reality; market math & investor longevity. Markets always revert. No reason not to be bullish now; who expects to be richer in 2024? Gen-Z women are most optimistic. US College Majors with highest un-employment rates: Art History. SEG-1: Markets Drop Chances of Fed Rate Cut to 50% SEG-2: Gains vs Declines: Market Math Explained SEG-3: The Truth About Promised Market Returns SEG-4: Who Expects to Be Richer in 2024? Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DUOXdv6rOo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-corrections-matter-more-than-you-think/ "Q1 Earnings Season Approaches" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Miss the Tax Day Bump?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzLHu1gSp44&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What to Look for in Q1 Earnings" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srlOrEXPoTg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrectionsMatter #Q1EarningsExpectations #LowMarketVolatility #RiskOfMarketCorrection #CaliforniaMinimumWage #IncreasedLaborCosts #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
What to Look for in Q1 Earnings (4/1/24)
PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70. Markets continue a low-volatility advance, seemingly floating higher. The current environment typically leads to market correction. The next round of earnings commences next week; it will be unsurprising that to see a high percentage of companies "beat" Wall Street estimates. (The high beat rate is always the case due to the sharp downward revisions in analysts' estimates as the reporting period begins.) Are investors paying more for less? California's new $20.hr minimum wage goes into effect today; cast study to come. The realities of the cost of labor; at what point do consumers say, "enough." What are the upper limits of the minimum wage (that was never intended to be a living wage)? SEG-1: Is Now Nirvana for the Fed? SEG-2: Financial Conditions vs Borrowing Conditions SEG-3: ATM Cash & Kids; Are Investors Paying More for Less? SEG-4: California's Higher Minimum Wage vs Economic Reality Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srlOrEXPoTg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=11s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Q1 Earnings Season Approaches" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are Set for All-time Highs. Again," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYuFjLIoi8s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujhW-HlRJGaPa9tDN_GthEg&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxZpMp64N1Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Q1EarningsExpectations #LowMarketVolatility #RiskOfMarketCorrection #CaliforniaMinimumWage #IncreasedLaborCosts #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
Markets Are Set for All-time Highs. Again. (4/1/24)
Markets continue in a low volatility advance and could set another all-time high today. Markets are tending to be "floating higher," with little to deter investors. Economic data continues to come in in line with expectations, and there's no "stress' in terms of the markets; credit spreads remain exceptionally bullish. There's no sign of risk in the market, currently. Volatility has dropped down below 13 on the VIX; professional investors are running at 103% of allocations. This type of environment typically leads to a correction of some sort. (Preview: "Investing Lessons from Your Mother" are coming out this Friday (4/5). It's easy to start ignoring your portfolio; but this is exactly the time you don't want to do that. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYuFjLIoi8s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #LowMarketVolatility #AllTimeHigh #RiskIsBuilding #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
When Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions (3/28/24)
Consumer confidence for stock prices remains high, despite mixed econonic data. Asset prices are rising faster than earnings, as optimism is extremely elevated. Equal Weight Index is underperforming the S&P; Bond prices are improving. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. Markets' advance for past 5-months begs the question, what's next? The risk is liquidity, which trips up banks, which trips of the economy. Stocks are becoming "crowded." The challenge of working with Gen-Z, recently cited as the least reliable employees. Why employee productivity matters. SEG-1: Mixed Economic Data; Setting Up for Bonds SEG-2: Financial Conditions vs Borrowing Conditions SEG-3: The Liquidity Risk SEG-4: The Challenge of Working w Gen-Z Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxZpMp64N1Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/financial-conditions-butt-heads-with-borrowing-conditions/ "Technical Measures And Valuations: Does Any Of It Matter?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technical-measures-and-valuations-does-any-of-it-matter/ "Market Bubble? A Function Of Psychology" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Retirement Crisis Faces Government And Corporate Pensions" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/retirement-crisis-faces-government-and-corporate-pensions/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "A Bullish Set-up for Bonds," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuKvGsaXmk4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34W7b1txFIc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MixedEconomicData #SettingUpForBonds #FinancialConditions #BorrowingConditions #FederalReserve #LiquidityRisk #WorkingWithGenZ #EmployeeProductivity #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
A Bullish Set-up for Bonds (3/28/24)
The Equal Weight Index has begun gaining traction, closing the gap with the S&P. Mid-caps have actually out-paced the Equal Weight Index, but still lags the S&P. Small-caps are the biggest laggard, still. Bonds have been picking up in price nicely of late, pushing up above a clustering of moving averages, creating a bullish set up for bond prices. We think bonds have a little more work to do because of what's going on with the Fed and inflation, but the set-up appears to be much improved for bonds. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuKvGsaXmk4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BondPricesImprove #BondYields #MarketExhaustion #RiskIsBuilding #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement (3/27/24)
The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets' steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance's unique inflation indicator... Markets still act like there's a flood of liquidity when there's not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry Fink thinks so, or at least wants you to think he can; Blackrock & Merrill want to hold your money forever. Creation of Merrill's Target Date Fund. Why Annuities are so lucrative; three reasons why you should have one. A look at the origins of 401k's and how we screwed them up. The dearth of financial education. SEG-1: Economists See No Recession in Sight SEG-2: The Bifurcated Market & Houston Real Estate SEG-3: Larry Fink's "Solution" for the Retirement Crisis SEG-4: Three Reasons Why You Should Have an Annuity Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34W7b1txFIc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Technical Measures And Valuations: Does Any Of It Matter?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technical-measures-and-valuations-does-any-of-it-matter/ "Market Bubble? A Function Of Psychology" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Retirement Crisis Faces Government And Corporate Pensions" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/retirement-crisis-faces-government-and-corporate-pensions/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Steep Ascent is Unsustainable," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE7VKucDYJk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Do Technical Measures & Valuations Matter?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKNtRTENGiI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=14s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementCrisis #Blackrock #MarketValuations #MarketTechnicals #MarketBubblePsychology #MarketCorrectionIsComing #SocialSecurity #LarryFink #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
Markets' Steep Ascent is Unsustainable (3/27/24)
The end of the month of March marks another round of quarterly rebalancing in portfolios. Markets have remained within a well-defined trend channel for the past few weeks. After selling off for ther past three days, futures this morning are pointing a little higher. The markets' angle of ascent continues to be very steep, which is, ultimately, unsustainable. This is a sign of market exhaustion, with all the buyers in the market. Volatility remains low because investors do not perceive any risk to the market. But this is not a 'can't stop won't stop' market: It will not last indefinitely. These scenarios always end in correction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE7VKucDYJk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketExhaustion #RiskIsBuilding #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Do Technical Measures & Valuations Matter? (3/26/24)
Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" - Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they're too slow). All elements are now present for a reversion to the mean; just need a catalyst. What will turn buyers into sellers? The impact of more, earlier retirees on actuarial tables and Larry Fink's paycheck. Capitalism & The Wealth Gap; the decline in EV sales; why more people aren't saving more. SEG-1: Regional Economic Surveys Weaken SEG-2: Valuations Are a Measure of Market Psychology SEG-3: When Fundamentals & Technicals Align SEG-4: Retiring Too Early and Living Too Long Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKNtRTENGiI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=14s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Technical Measures And Valuations: Does Any Of It Matter?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technical-measures-and-valuations-does-any-of-it-matter/ "Market Bubble? A Function Of Psychology" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Retirement Crisis Faces Government And Corporate Pensions" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/retirement-crisis-faces-government-and-corporate-pensions/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Will Retest the 200-DMA " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdsIUq3U-Lk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are Market Bubbles a Function of Psychology?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzgkNEySf6I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketValuations #MarketTechnicals #MarketBubblePsychology #MarketCorrectionIsComing #FederalReserveRateCuts #FedDotPlot #ContinuingResolution #SocialSecurity #LarryFink #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
Markets Will Retest the 200-DMA (3/26/24)
Markets have scored very positive returns over the past five months. When markets are so deviated from the 200-DMA, ultimately, they will connect back down to that average. We've been here before. Statistically speaking, when the markets have been positive for five months, odds are the year will end on a positive note. The devil is in the details, and what happens between now and then. Despite the longevity of a bull run, markets will always revert to the mean. The market psychology and momentum will continue to push stock prices higher...for now. But at some point, a correction will occur, and you will get a buying opportunity. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdsIUq3U-Lk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RiskIsBuilding #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Are Market Bubbles a Function of Psychology? (3/25/24)
Stop the re-makes of '80's movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee Maker saga continues; Market Bubble Psychology: What defines a market bubble. No two market bubbles are a like (w charts). The Fed's Dot Plots are worthless. How will the latest CR be funded? (More debt.) The mechanics of Social Security: more retirees earlier than expected. The things that always get paid when the government shuts down. The Baloney Bill is full of non-performing spending. SEG-1: '80's Movie Re-makes & Market Correction's a-comin' SEG-2: Coffee Maker Saga, Pt.2; Market Bubble Psychology, Pt.1 SEG-3: Coffee Pots & Marital Advice; Three Factors of Market Bubbles SEG-4: Don't Pay Attention to the Fed's Dot Plot Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzgkNEySf6I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Bubble? A Function Of Psychology" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Risk is Building for a Correction...at some point" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2r6Il5U7oM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvLFl9iD9GY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBubblePsychology #MarketCorrectionIsComing #FederalReserveRateCuts #FedDotPlot #ContinuingResolution #BaloneyBill #GovernmentShutDown #SocialSecurity #MandatorySpending #NonProductiveSpending #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
Risk is Building for a Correction...at some point (3/25/24)
Markets have had a very strong advance over the past 21-weeks. The one thing we keep paying attention to is the indicator of the convergence/divergence line, which has been stuck at a very high level. It is highly unusual that markets have been this complacent for so long. That will end at some point; the question is what will end it, and when?? Markets beginning to add breadth is an encouraging sign, but complacency is still a concern. Meanwhile, more speculative activity is beginning to emerge. Money moving back into cryptocurrency is indicative of the height of speculation. The Reddit IPO amid questionable fundamental underpinnings is another example of market exuberance--and normal for late-cycle market moves. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2r6Il5U7oM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RiskIsBuilding #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024 (3/22/24)
What do the Three Stooges and the Fed's rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We're living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to deal with reinvestment risks as rates begin to fall; alternatives to getting away from high fixed-income earnings. SEG-1: The Three Rate Cut Stooges SEG-2: Retirement Goal-harvesting SEG-3: Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024 SEG-4: Medicare Advantage Risks & Reinvestment Risks as Rates Begin to Drop Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Advice, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvLFl9iD9GY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/blackout-of-buybacks-threatens-bullish-run/ "Household Equity Allocations Suggests Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/household-equity-allocations-suggests-caution/ "Full-Time Employment As A Recession Indicator?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Follow the Bouncing 20-DMA," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BoOcCgLzYo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Will the Fed Rate Announcment Affect You?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WRlC2YWWsI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RisksInMedicareAdvantage2024 #FedRateAnnouncement #2024ChildTaxCredit #JeromePowell #MarketsBullishTrend #FederalReserve #Quantitat
How Will the Fed Rate Announcement Affect You? (3/21/24)
Markets respond to the Fed rate announcement, indicating at least three rate cuts this year, the first one coming as soon as June. Danny & Jonathan discuss Bond behaviors in the aftermath and investor response to the Fed rate announcement. Changes to the Child Tax Credit for 2024 (it's not a deduction, but a credit against the tax you owe); caveat: It's not indexed for inflation. What about using insurance products as an investing tool. Danny & Jonathan discuss the evolution of annuities and the best approach for determining their usefulness; how to determine how much to invest in an annuity; the value of long term care policies. SEG-1: Economic Report Preview; Fed Rate Predictions SEG-2: Investor Response & Reaction to Fed Rate Announcement SEG-3: Child Tax Credit for 2024 SEG-4: The Evolution of Annuities: What's the Best Approach? Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WRlC2YWWsI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/blackout-of-buybacks-threatens-bullish-run/ "Household Equity Allocations Suggests Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/household-equity-allocations-suggests-caution/ "Full-Time Employment As A Recession Indicator?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Follow the Bouncing 20-DMA," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BoOcCgLzYo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Your Ex Worth More Dead than Alive?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsrCFm8pfPc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FedRateAnnouncement #2024ChildTaxCredit #JeromePowell #MarketsBullishTrend #FederalReserve #QuantitativeEasing #MortgageRates #InterestRates #InvestingAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
The Fed's New Form of QE (3/19/24)
There's a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. Lance and Michael discuss the Fed's Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative Easing: Which problem is easier to fix: Creating recession or inflation? Bank of Japan is ending it's policy of negative rates; what will be the effect on the US? What's the risk to the currency carry trade? Japan's demographic problem. Is the Fed formulating a new type of QE? What QE does; is it inflationary? What the Fed can do; the stealth form of QE: Will it provide liquidity to markets? SEG-1: The Correlation Between Buybacks and Market Performance SEG-2: The Fed's Dot Plot & Plans for QE SEG-3: Bank of Japan Ends Negative Rates SEG-4: The Fed's New Form of QE Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVHBhdRcTus&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/blackout-of-buybacks-threatens-bullish-run/ "Household Equity Allocations Suggests Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/household-equity-allocations-suggests-caution/ "Full-Time Employment As A Recession Indicator?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Follow the Bouncing 20-DMA," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BoOcCgLzYo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Bull Market Trend is Showing Some Cracks" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-ll-IYbDKA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketsBullishTrend #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #QuantitativeEasing #TheFedsNewQE #BankofJapan #TheFedsDotPlot #Markets #Money #Investing
Follow the Bouncing 20-DMA (3/19/24)
The markets continue to bounce along the 20-DMA, each time touching the mark, the algo's kick in to push stocks to the top of the trading range. This pattern has continued for the past 250-days without a correction; a very complacent rise in markets. The longer this pattern continues, the closer a correction gets. Worth noting: The angle of ascent is beginning to flatten; a correction doesn't necessarily mean stocks have to decline; they could trade sideways long enough to allow the moving averages to play catch up as markets work off their over-bought conditions. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BoOcCgLzYo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #Money #Investing
The Bull Market Trend is Showing Some Cracks (3/18/24)
During the week we were off for Spring Break, absolutely nothing changed: There is still no reason for the Fed to cut rates, and markets have finally re-aligned with the Fed's "Dot Plot." The share buyback blackout window is imposed starting on Friday, which has been an important factor in the markets' rally. Yet the bullish trend continues; watch Apple as it implements Goggle's Gemini AI into iPhone O/S. Markets continue in their complacency: Watch for a break of the 20-DMA, and for the algo's to kick-in; that will likely signal a market correction. Why Lance's coffee is cold this morning (always read the reviews!) The recession countdown warning is on; the difference between full-time & part time employment numbers & the Economic Cycle; the Tyson Foods employment fiasco; why the economy isn't booming, as advertised; there's a market correction coming (and we need it); the National Association of Realtors (NAR) lawsuit settles, with possible consequences. SEG-1: Markets' Bullish Trend (and complacency) Continues SEG-2: The Recession Countdown Warning SEG-3: The Economy Isn't Booming as Advertised SEG-4: Correction is Coming (and we need it) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-ll-IYbDKA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Household Equity Allocations Suggests Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/household-equity-allocations-suggests-caution/ "Full-Time Employment As A Recession Indicator?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Watch for a Break in the 20-DMA for Correction Trigger," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv5Bhtu-Klg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Holding Long-term Bonds, but not to Maturity" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tunq-ysXXHA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketsBullishTrend #InvestingAdvice #MarketCorrection #RecessionCountdownWarning #MarketCorrection #EmploymentAsRecessionIndicator #Markets #Money #Investing
Watch for a Break in the 20-DMA for Correction Trigger (3/18/24)
(3/18/24) In one week's time (while we were on vacation, literally nothing changed in the markets. Markets' bullish trend continues, with future also trending higher this morning. Watch Apple following its agreement to implement Google's Gemini AI into iPhone. The signal you're seeking to reduce equity risk will be a break in the 20-DMA, and as the algorithms begin to sell on that break, that could produce a market correction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv5Bhtu-Klg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #2024Election #Money #Investing
Holding Long-term Bonds, but not to Maturity (3/8/24)
Market Commentary: When will rate cuts hit? Biden's SOTU Address: Get ready for higher corporate taxes and an inflation fight. The Death of the 4% Rule? Not yet...the impact of lower interest rates on a viable distribution plan; how to create one as Recession looms. Dealing with durations: Holding long-term bonds, but not to maturity. Credit risk in bonds, and the importance of portfolio fluidity. Distribution planning and timing: What are appropriate benchmarks for portfolio performance? Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? (No.) Why we may be at the peak of rate hike cycle; proactivity is the key. Is bailing on market volatility a loser's game? Setting reasonable expectations for portfolio risk; what to do when the fundamentals are skewed. (Getting more "likes" than Lance.) Looking at Bond ETF's and the risk from mass redemptions. SEG-1: Market Commentary: When Will Rate Cuts Hit? SEG-2: Creating Distribution Plans as Recession Looms SEG-3: What Are Appropriate Benchmarks for Portfolio Performance SEG-4: Should You Bail on Market Volatility? Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisors Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Jonathan McCarty, CFA, CFP Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tunq-ysXXHA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/liquidity-problems-are-closer-than-you-think/ "Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/valuation-metrics-and-volatility-suggest-investor-caution/ "Berkshire And The Cash Dilemma" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Being Complacent About the Market is Dangerous," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPSkUju2wG0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXVK_PSMGOg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #LiquidityProblems #MarketLiquidity #HowInflationAffectsEconomy #PresidentialElection #JoeBidenSOTUAddress #CorporateTaxIncrease #InvestingAdvice #ValuationMetrics #NoRateCuts #SitckyInflation #StockValuations #CashHoard #InterestRateCuts #MarketCorrection #CashVsValuations #MarketCapGDPRatio #MarketCorrection #Markets #Money #Investing
Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think (3/7/24)
Earnings growth are a function of economic growth; the US Economiy is de-coupled from the rest of the world, which economy is poor. The danger of deficits (that are funding our economic growth); SOTU Preview: "The economy is great." Market continues trading in a very tight range, but ever upward; this is when complacency sets in. The market is setting up for correction as the election draws nearer. Are we in a bubble or the market top; how to justify valuations. Cisco vs Nvidia: What is Nvidia worth now? The correlation between Bank reserves and the market. Powell says the Fed's next move will be a rate cut by EOY. Stocks in the news with less liquidity in the market, yet, financial (lending) conditions are easing? Borrowing activity is at an all-time low: Conditions are very tight. Why the Fed won't act now; the Banks own the Fed, and Jerome Powell's boss is really Jamie Dimon. If the Fed sees liquidity shrinking, does the market know? Employment & Quit Rate/hiring Rate dichotomies; ADP vs BLS: Data skews make it difficult to tell, but there's no real growth. Being "Bougie Broke:" continuing to buy using buy now/pay later programs: How long can that last? SEG-1: Earnings Are a Function of Economic Growth SEG-2: Market Bubble or Market Top? SEG-3: Who Really Owns the Fed (and who's Jerome Powell's real boss)? SEG-4: Being Bougie Broke: How long can Buy-now, Pay-later last? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXVK_PSMGOg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/liquidity-problems-are-closer-than-you-think/ "Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/valuation-metrics-and-volatility-suggest-investor-caution/ "Berkshire And The Cash Dilemma" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Being Complacent About the Market is Dangerous," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPSkUju2wG0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Inflation is Affecting the Economy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3l692sxS5g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #LiquidityProblems #MarketLiquidity #HowInflationAffectsEconomy #SuperTuesday #PresidentialElection #GovernmentMatchTo401ks #InvestingAdvice #ValuationMetrics #NoRateCuts #SitckyInflation #StockValuations #CashHoard #InterestRateCuts #MarketCorrection #CashVsValuations #MarketCapGDPRatio #MarketCorrection #JeffBezos #Markets #Money #Investing
Why Being Complacent About the Market is Dangerous (3/7/24)
Same song, second or third verse: Markets continue to trade within a very tight range, not making any huge advances while slowly trading upwards. This is the dangerous part of the market, where complacency sets in. The "Can't stop/won't stop" market attitude is a repeat of exactly what we saw last year with the AI and Nvidia craze, the MACD signal was stuck at a very high level; we were at over-bought levels for an extended period of time...exactly the same situation that we currently have. Don't forget, too, last Summer, we caught that 10% correction. We don't think that's going to repeat today, but sometime over the next few months, especially as the elections draw nearer, you should expect some type of corrective action. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPSkUju2wG0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketComplacency #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #2024Election #Money #Investing
Proof: How Inflation is Affecting the Economy (3/36/24)
Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed's blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without recession. Markets continue to trade in a narrow range, like clockwork; volatility actually declined. Are we at the top, and not a bubble? Correction this year is very likely; Bitcoin joined by Gold as a speculative asset. The proposed government match to 4-01-k's: Nice idea, but few will be able to take advantage; and what about the unintended consequences? the effect of inflation on the economy. Why cap savings? IF the economy is doing so great, why do we feel so bad about it? The Hunger Games & the Kellogg's boycott. SEG-1: Super Tuesday & Market Divergence from Economy SEG-2: Are We at the Top or in a Bubble? SEG-3: The Government Match to 401-k's SEG-4: If the Economy is so Great, Why Do We Feel so Bad? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3l692sxS5g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/valuation-metrics-and-volatility-suggest-investor-caution/ "Berkshire And The Cash Dilemma" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why No One is Hedging Portfolios," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8AyO87zRqE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Valuation Metrics Suggest Investor Caution" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVRpyk74gSA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1243s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #HowInflationAffectsEconomy #SuperTuesday #PresidentialElection #GovernmentMatchTo401ks #InvestingAdvice #ValuationMetrics #NoRateCuts #SitckyInflation #StockValuations #CashHoard #InterestRateCuts #MarketCorrection #CashVsValuations #MarketCapGDPRatio #MarketCorrection #JeffBezos #Markets #Money #Investing
Why No One is Hedging Portfolios (3/6/24)
Markets continue to trade within a very tight range, touching support yesterday. Watch computer algorithms kick-in at the open today to buy the 20-DMA. The current trend is long in the tooth: You typically don't see this level of activity with such low volatility for this long without some kind of corrective move. We don't think there's any reason to worry until we violate that trend line, which WILL happen eventually. Volatility actually declined on Tuesday, and remains at such low levels as we haven't seen since before the 2020 Pandemic Shutdown. No one is expecting a decline, so portfolio insurance is extremely cheap; no one wants to pay to hedge portfolios. Keep an eye on the 20-DMA, because if we break that, there will be bigger selling programs that kick-in. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8AyO87zRqE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MagnificentSevenStocks #HedgingPortfolios #PortfolioInsurance #MemeStocks #MarketMoneyRotation #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #Money #Investing
Valuation Metrics Suggest Investor Caution (3/5/24)
Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target's earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance; Lance's emails are the best contrarian indicator. Valuations are an indicator of sentiment; why FOMO trumps Fundamentals; rationalization and the numbers game: Making up metrics to rationalize valuation: We're still paying too much for equities. Bitcoin & ETF's: The Dark Side of the Coin. Shorting ETF's adds an additional layer of volatility. Peter Schiff: ETF's are the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog. There's more volatility to come in cryptocurrencies. Jeff Bezos now the richest man; what's a few more zeros? SEG-1: Markets in the Midst of Bullish Exuberance SEG-2: Valuation Metrics Suggest Investor Caution SEG-3: Why FOMO Trumps Fundamentals SEG-4: The Dark Side of ETF's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVRpyk74gSA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1016s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/valuation-metrics-and-volatility-suggest-investor-caution/ "Berkshire And The Cash Dilemma" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Markets' Four-Month Advance," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNHX7Ni-R6Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Warren Buffett's Cash Dilemma" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h15FiMIsVwg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=132s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #ValuationMetrics #NoRateCuts #SitckyInflation #StockValuations #CashHoard #InterestRateCuts #MarketCorrection #CashVsValuations #MarketCapGDPRatio #MarketCorrection #JeffBezos #Markets #Money #Investing
The Markets' Four-Month Advance (3/5/24)
Markets continue their march ever upward, trading in a very narrow range. This current four-month advance is one of the longest in market history, going back to the '70's for anything like it. The magnitude of the advance is roughly 20%. These massive advances typically occur just before you get a correction. An advance of this duration, accompanied by low volumes of volatility, is not normal. But...underneath the surface, there's a rotation out of the Magnificent Seven Stocks back into more speculative assets, the meme stocks (stocks whose popularity is primarily derived from retail investors through social media). High yield bond funds are doing well now because there's no apparent risk in the market. Historically, this always turns out badly for investors. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNHX7Ni-R6Y&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MagnificentSevenStocks #MemeStocks #MarketMoneyRotation #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion #Money #Investing
Warren Buffett's Cash Dilemma (3/4/24)
Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren't cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett's annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett's favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it's hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble. SEG-1: Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year SEG-2: Warren Buffett's $160-B Cash Pile SEG-3: When Companies are Strikingly Over-priced SEG-4: Dumb Money vs Smart Money Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h15FiMIsVwg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=132s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Berkshire And The Cash Dilemma" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The AI Chase is Fueling Correction," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqVO5HqcW9A&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Plan for the Social Security Income Cap" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGn5ICWStj0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #WarrenBuffetsCashDilemma #StockBuyBacks #StockValuations #CashHoard #InterestRateCuts #MarketCorrection #BerkshireCashDilemma #BullTrendContinues #CashVsValuations #MarketCapGDPRatio #InvestingVsGambling #MarketCorrection #DumbMoney #SmartMoney #Markets #Money #Investing
he AI Chase is Fueling Correction (3/4/24)
Markets have been 'up" 16 out of the past 18-weeks in a relatively low-volatility, narrow trading channel, creating an ever-larger divergence from the 200-DMA. Markets are up 20% in those 18-weeks. The last time we saw something like this was in 1970. The lows of last October were routed by an AI chase, and here we are again with markets sustained by another AI chase. The length of time that the MACD has been flat at such high levels is unusually long. Each time that has occurred, it has led to more corrective outcomes in the market. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqVO5HqcW9A&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #AIChaseEffect #MarketCorrectionComing #MarketTrendChannel #20-DMA #200-DMA #MACDindicator #NegativeDivergenceInMomentum #LowVolatilityIndex #StockPriceReversion#Money #Investing