The Real Investment Show Podcast
3,292 episodes — Page 15 of 66
9-9-24 Five Actions You Can Take to Minimize Risk
Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting and rate drop predictions; 2-yr Treasury yields are reflective of rate expectations. Forward earnings revisions continue to ratchet downward; markets must reprice on expectations, impacting performance. Monday's market rally was a disappointment; MACD sell signal is still in place. There are still barriers and resistance in the way of markets moving higher. This is not a good time to buy bonds. Lance and Jon look at what happens to stocks when a company is added to the S&P 500; why you should never track to an index: They're not reality. Wall Street wants you perpetually upset because money movement and emotions create fees. Indexes do not pay fees or taxes. Five steps you can take to mitigate portfolio risk. Lance and Jon answer e-mail query about portfolio management and reasonable expectations: Can you create high yields in a low interest rate environment? SEG-1: Markets' Rally Disappoints SEG-2A: What Happens When Stock is Added to the S&P 500 SEG-2B: Five Steps You Can Take to Mitigate Portfolio Risk SEG-3: E-mail Q&A: Realistic Goals of Portfolio Management SEG-4: Why Financial Planning is All a Big Guess Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDSbAB_oXtc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-a-bullish-and-bearish-analysis/ "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Rally Disappoints" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RnurWaljp8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "A Rough Start to September" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtRVT0cqwNg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #InflationTrends #EconomicSlowdown #trading #RecessionRisks #InvestmentStrategies #BearMarket #PortfolioManagement #FinancialPlanning #StockBuybacks #RayKurzwell #TheAgeofSpiritualMachines #JobsReport #Employment #Technology #Markets #Money #Investing
9-10-24 Markets' Rally Disappoints
Markets generated a rather disappointing rally on Monday, giving up about half of its gains by the end of the day. The good news: Markets closed positive, bounced off the 100-DMA, and were over-sold on a relative strength basis. That initial bounce off support indicated markets are clearly not out of the woods yet, still on a sell signal, indicating weaker prices are still ahead. This will suppress any positive action until the sell signal can be worked off. Markets initially failed at resistance at the 50-DMA. If markets cannot hold support at the 100-DMA, the next level downward will be at the August lows at the 200-DMA. We are currently in the mode of managing risk rather than trying to gain exposure in the markets. Unfortunately, no decent set up in Bonds has yet occurred, and those issues remain extremely over-bought; there's no opportunity now to increase exposure in bonds: It's difficult to add bonds to a portfolio now. If you own them, hang onto them. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RnurWaljp8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #Bonds #Treasuries #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
9-9-24 A Rough Start to September
Markets are having a rough start for September; Will the be a correction before the election? Lance examines the buyer/seller dynamic. Markets will probably bound this week. Look for a moderate rally, which will provide opportunity to trim portfolio risk. September/October stock market volatility is expected, with markets de-risking going into the election. Will there be an economic slowdown in September? Lance answers a question from YouTube chat," Who receives the difference in profits/losses when a company sells stock? Why stock buybacks are a scam; a dividend is a return of value to stock holder, while a buyback is a share redemption. The next, great undoing of the markets has not yet been thought of. The Friday Jobs Report: Not to hot, not too cold, but definitely not just right. Lance reviews events that have led to slower job growth. Has Technology really made our lives better? In the book, "The Age of Spiritual Machines," by futurist Ray Kurzwell, written in the late '90's, 78% of predictions have come true. SEG-1: September Stock Market Volatility SEG-2: Why Stock Buybacks Are a Scam SEG-3: What Do the Jobs Reports Really Tell Us? SEG-4: Does Technology Really Make Things Better? Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4xLdTctnLk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Bounce this Week?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSVpIA3cI6Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Plan for Trump Tax Cut Expiration" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtRVT0cqwNg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #InflationTrends #EconomicSlowdown #trading #RecessionRisks #InvestmentStrategies #BearMarket #PortfolioManagement #FinancialPlanning #StockBuybacks #RayKurzwell #TheAgeofSpiritualMachines #JobsReport #Employment #Technology #Markets #Money #Investing
-9-24 Will Markets Bounce this Week?
Markets will likely bounce this week. We've had declining momentum which triggered a sell signal, which is still in place. The upside for any rally will be limited, but when it occurs, use that opportunity to trim risk from portfolios. A clibe back up to the 50-DMA would be an excellent exit point, if you're needing to weed your porfolio garden. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSVpIA3cI6Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
9-6-24 How to Plan for Trump Tax Cut Expiration
Will last month's Jobs and JOLTS reports show "normalization" of employment numbers to pre-Covid counts? What will the Fed response be, and what will that imply about the economy? Richard & Danny further explore the "sunsetting" of tax rate cuts initiated by the Trump administration, and who might be affected: Most likely, everyone will see an average 3% increase, across the board. A real look at who pays their "fair share" and more, and who doesn't. SEG-1: Jobs Numbers & JOLTS Report: Back to Pre-Covid Normalization? SEG-2: Sunsetting Tax Cuts: Who Will Be Affected? SEG-3: Impact of Tax Rate Sunset vs Real Solution SEG-4: Retirement Most Precarious for Middle Class Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtRVT0cqwNg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Yield Be 4% by Friday?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyk8BotCkhk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Limiting Losses with Yield Curve Analysis" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhchaeMYAw8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=570s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrumpTaxCuts #TaxCutSunset #MarketCorrection #TaxHike #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #YieldCurveInversion #BondYield #BullSteepening #EmploymentReroit #EconomicWeakness #NegativeRevision #Divergence #Markets #Money #Investing
9-5-24 Limiting Losses with Yield Curve Analysis
Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting: There's a 50-50-chance of a 50-bp rate cut; will tomorrow's jobs report show fewer jobs than before Covid? Numbers are suspect with labor "hoarding" a potential problem; negative revisions to JOLTS report, part of a trend of negative revisions back to 2002. Will Yields be 4% by Friday? What the bond market is indicating. Living in the late 1900's; The Bond Yield Bet: Lots of stragglers to natural buying on demand; depending on the Fed to cut rates. Corporations are shorting Treasuries ahead of their own bond issuances: Corporate debt hedging. There are lots of divergences; Market Data is detached from economic reality. Has the yield curve "normalized?" The differential between 2-yr vs 10-yr Treasuries; what causes behaviors: The Fed. Michael Lebowitz explains the yield curve inversion in charts & graphs. Bull Steepening Periods Average Returns; how to use yield curve signals to mitigate loss. SEG-1: The Next Fed Meeting: 50-50- Chance of 50-bp Rate Cut SEG-2: The Bond Yield Bet SEG-3: Has the Yield Curve "Normalized:" Bond Yield Behaviors SEG-4: Bull Steepening Explained Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7oP6xRCGN0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=12s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Yield Be 4% by Friday?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyk8BotCkhk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Big Down Day" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhchaeMYAw8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=570s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #YieldCurveInversion #BondYield #BullSteepening #EmploymentReroit #EconomicWeakness #NegativeRevision #Divergence #Markets #Money #Investing
9-5-24 Will Yield Be 4% by Friday?
Friday is the big employment report day; Bonds are very over bought, and bond yields are very oversold. Bonds are fairly deviated from moving averages to the downside. Traders are betting Yield could be 4% by Friday, suggesting the employment report is going to come a much hotter-than-expected. Now, that would be a HUGE move in one day, which we do not expect. However, if we get a strong employment report, followed by a strong CPI report, a reversal in yields would not be surprising. Any data that casts doubt on economic health is going to affect yields: A decline in yields is a bet on weaker economic growth. Any data that argues against that narrative should cause yields to move back up...and we're expecting that to happen because yields are very over bought, getting heard of where the data actually is. So, this will create the buying opportunity if you've been wanting to get into, or increase your holdings in bonds. What gets us there? We don't know, but this is what the bond markets are telling us. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyk8BotCkhk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BondYields #EmploymentReport #EconomicWeakness #Oversold #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
9-4-24 Big Down Day
The S&P 500 sank 2.1%, the Nasdaq lost 3.3%, and while the tech sector led stocks into the red, the Dow wasn't excluded from the bad day either, shedding over 600 points for a 1.5% loss. What's next? The Tuesday market dump was accompanied by weak manufacturing reports suggesting the economy is weakening. The Yield Curve actually un-inverted briefly, and then re-inverted. Markets sold off more sharply than expected for no apparent reason, led by semiconductors and The Most Significant Stock in the market, Nvidia. However, after the dust settled, it was learned (by the rest of us) Nvidia was served with a DOJ subpoena investigating "monopolistic" behavior AFTER the closing bell. Wonder how they knew that? The risks to the market remain: Polling suggests policy after the election WILL matter: What polices will actually be enacted, and how will they affect markets? Corp tax rates, 2017 tax cut expiration, healthcare costs; Lance waxes eloquent on his dietary restrictions, sugar in bacon (and other foods), and reading food labels. Assets in Leveraged and Exchange Traded Funds; the speculative nature of investors today. How leverage is a double-edged sword. SEG-1: Why Markets Took a Dump SEG-2: How Did They Know?? SEG-3: Risks to the Markets: Why Policy Matters SEG-4A: Sugared Bacon & Food Labels SEG-4B: The Speculative Nature of Investors Today Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIOJonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhchaeMYAw8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=570s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Market Correction Continue?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Jx2J6xfbRg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Past Performance is No Guarantee..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJ1a845sbL4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #Nvidia #DOJSubpoena #TechSector #PolicyMatters #2017TaxCuts #AffordableCareAct #ObamaCare #CorporateTaxCuts #MarketReturns #MarketBullishness #PastPerformance #NoGuarantee #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioComparison #HighYieldBond #Markets #Money #Investing
9-4-24 Will Market Correction Continue?
Markets were over bought and losing momentum yesterday, and there was a risk of correction looming for September-October. Markets sold off Tuesday more sharply than expected, however. The first test was the cross-over of the 50- and 20-DMA as initial support. Markets opened down and sold off all day long. At least some of that overboughtedness was reversed, but not enough to completely eliminate the selling pressure. However, we are very close now to triggering a sell signal on the MACD. Markets will open lower this morning and likely try to bounce. If that level of support is taken out today, the next level will be at the 100-DMA, right around 5,2350 on the S&P. What drove markets down yesterday? Nvidia received a DOJ subpoena looking into "monopolistic" activities...but the subpoena was delivered AFTER the closing bell. Who knew about it beforehand?? Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Jx2J6xfbRg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #Nvidia #DOJSubpoena #Oversold #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
9-3-24 "Past Performance is No Guarantee..."
It's a holiday-shortened trading week to kick off the new month: September & October tend to be weaker trading months. Look for light volume and the impact of the corporate buy back window open and closing; markets tend to de-risk ahead of elections. Markets closed Friday at July's all-time high amid much bullish optimism. Markets today could retest 20- 50-DMA for support. despite a loss of momentum, take caution to not become overly negative. Lance and Jonathan address viewer emails about searching for investment research platforms (a la Morningstar), and the meanings of stock ratings (who is the customer?)"Past performance is no guarantee of future results..." A more important "P" question is one of Philosophy of a firm. Look for survivability over time. Why you cannot ignore past performance; making up losses is not the same as making money. Why does Wall Street create more indexes? "Comparison is the root of all unhappiness." Moving money creates fees. The cost of swapping strategies (comparing performances). The difference in returns the difference in investors' place in life. Question about building a 5.1% return portfolio; looking at markets' true returns. What happens when "high yield" bonds mature? Dealing with risk in portfolios; looking at variable returns. 8% is great...until the market makes 11%. SEG-1: Markets Close at July Highs - Can they Keep it? SEG-2: Why Past Performance is No Guarantee SEG-3: Comparison Is the Root of All Unhappiness SEG-4: What Happens When "High Yield" Bonds Mature? Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJ1a845sbL4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Break Higher or Lower?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojxEbzU9heE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Can Social Security Clawback Your Payments?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG5OqhPFss4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketResiliency #MarketReturns #MarketBullishness #PastPerformance #NoGuarantee #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioComparison #HighYieldBond #Markets #Money #Investing
9-3-24 Will Markets Break Higher or Lower?
Markets have a short trading week in which to function, and volumes will be a bit lighter. Markets closed on Friday at previous highs set in July. If markets can break out, that will allow momentum to carry markets higher. There is a lot of bullish sentiment. If markets close down today, that will keep things within a consolidation range. A break to the downside will test support at the 20- and 50-DMA. As markets are oversold, a breakout to the upside will be difficult to sustain in the near-term. We are seeing a loss of momentum over all. Don't become overly-negative, but this would be a good opportunity to remove risk from portfolios. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojxEbzU9heE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishTrend #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #Oversold #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #ConsumerConfidence #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-30-24 Can Social Security Clawback Your Payments?
Market Resiliency: It's always about the Fed. Nvidia and the AI story is still alive; Treasuries are overbought; Dollar General and Big Lots are struggling, surprisingly; where are the cracks in the economy? THe unwinding of the Tech sector, and how Google lets you know you're fired. The push to working longer; more and more are depending more and more on Social Security. legislation introduced to prevent SS clawbacks after 3-years: Is it a good idea? Why small towns are paying people to move there; living in a Dollar General, old food & Twinkies. How to boost credit scores without borrowing money; Zillow credit reporting for rent payments; how the credit scoring formulas are changing; how FICO figures credit scores. Credit building strategies w FinTech credit cards. Dating questions, credit scores, and dating apps; the trend towards renting; credit builder cards; Credit breaches & Cyber Security. SEG-1: Market Resiliency - It's Always About the Fed SEG-2: Is Limiting Social Security Clawbacks a Good Idea? SEG-3A: Getting Paid to Move to Small Towns SEG-3B: Boosting Credit Scores Without Borrowing Money SEG-4: Credit Building Strategies that Work Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG5OqhPFss4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yield Curve Shifts Offer Signals For Stockholders" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yield-curve-shifts-offer-signals-for-stockholders/ "Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/overbought-conditions-set-up-short-term-correction/ "Signals Suggest Bulls Trump Bears…For Now." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Nvidia Knocks the Cover off the Ball " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2e1WEWVHDKs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Nvidia Priced for Perfection?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtS6mftSN0Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketResiliency #Nvidia #PrivateEquity #AIcompanies #FinancialMarkets #TechnologyInvestment #PublicCompanies #FutureTechTrends #InvestmentRisk #Opportunities #TechBirth #MarketEntry #Innovation #InvestmentAdvice #NextBigCompany #FederalReserve #InterestRates #SocialSecurity #PaymentClawbacks #DollarGeneral #BigLots #CreditScores #CreditCards #FinTechCards #FICO #Zillow #Renting #Markets #Money #Investing
8-29-24 Is Nvidia Priced for Perfection?
Looking ahead to September; why election polling is wrong; policy differences between Harris and Trump, and potential impact on markets. Nvidia earnings report rundown and stock buy back announcement. Nvidia owns 80% of market share for GPU's for data centers, with a new Blackwell chip on the way. Syppy & demand will be key to pricing. Groth expectations and market weighting; Nvidia valuation is extremely expensive: Priced for perfection, but difficult to deliver. How long can current marings hold, and who will compete w Nvidia? Picking the "next" Nvidia is impossible to know. The benefits from AI are different from company to company. Update on the Roberts' Home Remodel: Kitchen Aide mixer & Coffee maker; The Fed: No doubt about cutting rates, just how much, how fast? Recession is the question (when)? Taking rates to zero would imply recession; we're in a record-long stretch of Yield Curve inversion; un-inversion is due. Recession indicators; pay attention to what the Bond Market and Yield Curves are saying. Dollar General's "cratering demand," and Klarna's AI-fueled layoffs. SEG-1: September Forecast & Nvidia Reports SEG-2: Priced for Perfection, Hard to Deliver SEG-3A: The Roberts' Remodel SEG-3B: The Fed: No Doubt About Cutting Rates SEG-4: Recession Indicators: What the Yield Curve Saith Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtS6mftSN0Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yield Curve Shifts Offer Signals For Stockholders" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yield-curve-shifts-offer-signals-for-stockholders/ "Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/overbought-conditions-set-up-short-term-correction/ "Signals Suggest Bulls Trump Bears…For Now." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Nvidia Knocks the Cover off the Ball " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2e1WEWVHDKs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Stop Worrying About Taxes" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9tNkglBWHs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Nvidia #PrivateEquity #AIcompanies #FinancialMarkets #TechnologyInvestment #PublicCompanies #FutureTechTrends #InvestmentRisk #Opportunities #TechBirth #MarketEntry #Innovation #InvestmentAdvice #NextBigCompany #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #Recession #Markets #Money #Investing
8-29-24 Nvidia Knocks the Cover off the Ball
Nvidia reports very strong revenue growth, up 122%, in its latest quarterly results. The chip maker is still seeing earnings beat estimates by a decent margin, and is announcing a $50-billion stock buy back program (Nvidia recently executed a stock split). Nvidia shares traded down about 7% following their report, most of which had aleady been recovered by this mornining, pre-market. Because of the unusual weight of pressure against disappointment, we trimmed our positions earlier this week. A big concern about these chips is supply and demand. Nvidia owns about 85% of the overall GPU market for data centers. There has not been enough supply of these chips to meet demand, which has fueled the company's growth, and fueled revenue by 122%. That cannot last. Up next is the next-gen Blackwell chip, and demand expectations are very high. The rate of growth will be problematic simply due to the law of large numbers and the size of the company. Nvidia makes up 6% of the S&P and nearly 12% of the NASDAQ; as goes Nvidia, so goes the market. If disappointment continues, markets will reflect the same. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2e1WEWVHDKs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Nvidia #GPU #DataCenter #Chips #BullishTrend #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #Oversold #Overbought #NvidiaReport #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #ConsumerConfidence #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-28-24 Stop Worrying About Taxes
Markets and Investors await today's earnings report from Nvidia, which has been tagged, 'The Most Important Stock in the World.' Expectations are VERY high, so there is little room for marginal results: There is more risk of disappointment than odds of exceeding expectations. Markets continue to hang on following the mini-correction last week, followed by sharp market recovery. For now, correction is over if Nvidia delivers. Dollar pressure continues; consumer confidence is on the rise. Why worry about paying taxes on investments? If you owe taxes, you MADE money. The danger of turning gains into losses in the quest for no taxes. The fruits of investing and the Fruit of the Loom; what are the goals for your money? Dealing with Capital Gains in real estate; the need for a financial advisor, accountant, and tax lawyer. Vacation home sales strategies. Signs you know your day will be a bad one. Only 8% of pre-retirees plan to wait until age 70 to draw social security: Lance & Danny discuss strategies. SEG-1: Why Nvidia is The Most Important Stock in the world SEG-2: Why Worry About Taxes, Pt-1 SEG-3: Why Worry About Taxes, Pt-2 SEG-4A: How You Know You're Going to Have a Bad Day SEG-4B: Why Only 8% of Works Plan to Wait Until 70 for Social Security Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9tNkglBWHs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yield Curve Shifts Offer Signals For Stockholders" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yield-curve-shifts-offer-signals-for-stockholders/ "Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/overbought-conditions-set-up-short-term-correction/ "Signals Suggest Bulls Trump Bears…For Now." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Hang on Nvidia's Report" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Xt7UeGJx2g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Overbought Conditions Set up for Correction" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTQ7Ij7AOQE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Nvidia #USDollar #Currency #CarryTrade #Taxes #FinancialPlanning #TaxMitigation #GrowMoney #SmartInvestments #ReduceTaxes #FinancialMistakes #TaxStrategy #TaxAdvice #FinancialGrowth #TaxEfficiency #InvestmentStrategy #MoneyManagement #FinancialAdvice #SmartWaysToReduceTaxes #TaxSavingTips #FinancialGoals #WealthBuilding #Markets #Money #Investing
8-28-24 Markets Hang on Nvidia's Report
Markets have been hanging-in for the past few days. Remember, back in June and July, we were looking at extreme deviations, and expecting a correction. We got one: About 8% over three days' time, and then markets immediately rallied. For the moment, the correction is over, and odds are we could break out to new highs (dependent on Nividia's report tonight). Volatlity is once again supressed as the market becomes much more bullish. Watch how the Dollar behaves, now becoming really oversold. Consumer confidence is picking up. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Xt7UeGJx2g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishTrend #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #Oversold #Overbought #NvidiaReport #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #ConsumerConfidence #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-27-24 Overbought Conditions Set up for Correction
Today's show is all over the place: Durable Goods take a big jump...unless you remove Aircraft. Astronauts stuck in space: Elon Musk to the rescue. Markets are overbought; risk remains in Carry Trade. Market correction will likely be short and shallow. What if: Nvidia's report tomorrow. Stocks are setting up for correction: Stocks on sale? Fallacies about the Dollar and where best to store currency. Viagra, Blue Chews, Him's/Her's: Demographics and the birthrate. Dating apps falling off a cliff. Demographics are destiny; the economics of dating. The family unit is the basis of the economy. The demise of society w/emergence of social media. Houston has a problem with scammers: Jonathan relates his daughter's recent run-in with the "Safe harbor Hotel" scam. SEG-1: Durable Goods, Stuck in Space, Overbought Markets SEG-2: Stocks Are Setting Up for Correction SEG-3: Blue Chews & Destiny in Demographics SEG-4: The Safe Harbor Hotel Scam Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTQ7Ij7AOQE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/overbought-conditions-set-up-short-term-correction/ "Signals Suggest Bulls Trump Bears…For Now." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Correction Will be Shallow" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh1I1CVJqdI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Risk Management Still Matters" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AptzKfSc2Bw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #OverBought #Oversold #DurableGoods #Aircraft #Nvidia #ElonMusk #RiskRangeReport #USDollar #Currency #CarryTrade #Viagra #BlueChew #DatingApp #Demographics #Birthrate #DatingEconomics #SocialMedia #SafeHarborScam #Markets #Money #Investing
8-27-24 The Correction Will be Shallow
Markets were fairly over-sold three weeks ago; fast forward to today, and markets are very over-bought. This reversal has not been surprising. Our Risk Range Report reveals which sectors are most affected. Also note the extreme deviations, which are a prelude to correction. When the majority of sectors are bullish, any correction will be somewhat shallow. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh1I1CVJqdI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishTrend #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #Oversold #Overbought #ShallowCorrection #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-26-24 Risk Management Still Matters
Jerome Powell says interest rate policy is due for a change; market future predict four rate cuts by the end of the year. Rate cuts, the election, and dollar weakness all remain risks to the market, as well as a bit of over hang from the carry trade fiasco earlier this month. Nvidia to report this week; anything could happen. Markets again nearing all time highs, bur becoming very over bought. Gold behavior is interesting, and price peaks generally herald a correction soon after. Markets are fine, even bullish, but it's still easy to find bearish headlines. Markets are coincident: When everything goes up all at once, everything will come down all at once. Looking at possibilities vs probabilities. The Four Rules for Risk Management: Raise portfolio cash levels to lower volatility and align with your risk tolerance. Reduce equity risk, particularly in areas highly dependent on economic growth. Add or increase the duration of bond allocations, which tend to offset risk during risk-off events. Reduce exposure to commodities and inflation trades as economic growth slows. SEG-1: Jerome Powell - The Time For Policy Change is Now SEG-2: When All Assets Rise Together, All Assets Fall Together SEG-3: Four Rules for Risk Management, Pt-1 SEG-4: Four Ruels for Risk Management, Pt-2 Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AptzKfSc2Bw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Signals Suggest Bulls Trump Bears…For Now." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why is Everyone Long on Gold?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKdsebkKe-o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Prepare for Recession (even when there isn't one)" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EF1EGrugUw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #Inflation #Deflation #JobsRevision #RiskMitigation #InvestmentAdvice #AverageRateOfReturn #PortfolioImpact #RiskAvoidance #LossPrevention #FinancialStrategy #InvestmentProducts #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #PortfolioManagement #DownsideRisk #MarketVolatility #InvestmentStrategy #RiskAssessment #InvestmentPortfolio #FinancialConsiderations #WealthManagement #ManagingRisk #DownsideProtection #MarketReturns #FinancialSecurity #Joy #AlmondJoy #Mounds #Markets #Money #Investing
8-26-24 Why is Everyone Long on Gold?
Markets are looking to push to all-time highs, and breadth has improved markedly; the ten-day rate of change has been extremely strong. We've had ten-times more stocks advancing on Friday than were declining. So market bullishness is the trend for now, with concerns and fears of a decline fading into the background. For now. The market is pricing in a zero-percent chance of a recession, but is also rapidly reaching over-bought conditions. The market needs a break at this point, which will give opportunity to add exposure. Gold has had a very nice run, seeming to stagnate somewhat, while maintaining a bullish trend. However, a monthly chart of Gold performance would indicate peaks in prices corresponding with over bought markets typically precede corrections (remember, Gold prices are driven by commodity traders on the NYMEX). Gold traders are extremely long in the speculative positions in Gold, currently. Our advice here is to remember to take profits and rebalance your positions at this point. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKdsebkKe-o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishTrend #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #GoldCommodity #NYMEXTraders #AllTimeHigh #20DMA #100DMA #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #Recession #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-23-24 How to Prepare for Recession (even when there isn't one)
Joy, Gratitude, and the difficulty of knowing what narrative to believe. Still to come: Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, and reaction to negative revision to Jobs numbers. Four rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year? How to make volatility work for you. Taxation of unrealized gains: It's a dumb idea. What about credits for losses?? (You absorb the losses, the Gov't takes the gains.) Thank goodness for Congressional gridlock. Schwab study, "What is Wealthy?" $2.5-mil average. The danger in benchmarking against surveys, S&P, and others' portfolios. Inflation vs deflation: The chatroom explodes. Preparing for Recession, even when there isn't one. Yet. The financial security cushion; Schiller's CAPE calculation: How will this affect you in distribution mode? Debt-to-Income Ratios: What are they really for (and who benefits more - you or the bank?) Joy in the markets & Animal Spirits: The joy of paying off debt, moderating risk, avoiding the retirement fund death spiral. The best use of 401k funds and the hierarchy of savings. Keeping human skills fresh. Oh, and Almond Joys. SEG-1: Joy & Gratitude: The Difficulty of Which Narrative to Believe SEG-2: Taxation of Unrealized Gains - It's a dumb idea SEG-3A: Inflation vs Deflation & Chatroom Wars SEG-3B: Preparing for Recession at Home SEG-4: Joy in the Markets & Animal Spirits Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EF1EGrugUw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Fed Funds Futures Offer Bond Market Insights" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/fed-funds-futures-offer-bond-market-insights/ "Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-decline-over-as-investors-buy-the-dip/ "Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-growth-myth-why-socialism-is-rising/ "Share Repurchases End The Market Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Bullish Trend Remains Intact" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg46dMB14Ks&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Jackson Hole Preview" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0s6NonA6ow&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #Inflation #Deflation #JobsRevision #RiskMitigation #InvestmentAdvice #AverageRateOfReturn #PortfolioImpact #RiskAvoidance #LossPrevention #FinancialStrategy #InvestmentProducts #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #PortfolioManagement #DownsideRisk #MarketVolatility #InvestmentStrategy #RiskAssessment #InvestmentPortfolio #FinancialConsiderations #WealthManagement #ManagingRisk #DownsideProtection #MarketReturns #FinancialSecurity #Joy #AlmondJoy #Mounds #Markets #Money #Investing
8-22-24 Jackson Hole Preview
Markets are again approaching all-time highs, with the NASDAQ exhibiting a most v-like recovery, up 11% in ten days. Markets' response to the largest (818-k) negative Jobs revision since 2009: Shrugs. FOMC meeting minutes indicate the time is "appropriate" for the Fed to lower rates. French women apparently have the longest life expectancy; Lance & Michael review FOMC meeting minutes and mentions of "appropriate time" to lower rates is now. So, far no leaks prior to Jackson Hole meeting. How WalMart is using AI to manage real-time sales/inventory data. The Fed knows jobs data is wrong. Is Jerome Powell Pinky or The Brain? There's personal inflation and then there's data the market looks at. The Fed doesn't want deflation, and 2% inflation is healthy for stable economic growth. SEG-1: Jobs Report Negative Revision & After Effects SEG-2: Life Expectancies & FOME: Appropriate Time SEG-3: Jerome Powell = Pinky & The Brain SEG-4: Technology Evolution, Food Expirations, & Price Dynamics Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0s6NonA6ow&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Fed Funds Futures Offer Bond Market Insights" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/fed-funds-futures-offer-bond-market-insights/ "Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-decline-over-as-investors-buy-the-dip/ "Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-growth-myth-why-socialism-is-rising/ "Share Repurchases End The Market Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Bullish Trend Remains Intact" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg46dMB14Ks&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why Your Portfolio Performance Sucks" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eno3BQhPGi4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #JeromePowell #PinktAndTheBrain #Inflation #Deflation #JobsRevision #RiskMitigation #InvestmentAdvice #AverageRateOfReturn #PortfolioImpact #RiskAvoidance #LossPrevention #FinancialStrategy #InvestmentProducts #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #PortfolioManagement #DownsideRisk #MarketVolatility #InvestmentStrategy #RiskAssessment #InvestmentPortfolio #FinancialConsiderations #WealthManagement #ManagingRisk #DownsideProtection #MarketReturns #FinancialSecurity #Markets #Money #Investing
8-22-24 The Bullish Trend Remains Intact
The S&P is approaching its all-time high, but there is a good bit of resistance the market is about to run into. The NASDAQ is up 11% in the past ten days as part of one of the longest, strongest run-ups since 2009. This is about as V-shaped a recovery as you can get in the markets, and there is a lot of exuberance. The bulk of the activity can be credited to stock buybacks. This is not a time to chase stocks. The bullish trend remains intact, with nothing to suggest a correction to be imminent. But that doesn't mean markets can't pull back to support at the 20-DMA or the 100-DMA, which would provide a much better entry point to add exposure, rather than trying to buy today. Ironically, if we can break out to new, all-time highs, and then retest that breakout, THAT will also create a buying opportunity. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg46dMB14Ks&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullishTrend #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #NASDAQ #SP500 #AllTimeHigh #20DMA #100DMA #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-21-24 Why Your Portfolio Performance Sucks
Lance Roberts examines the cause and effect phenomenon of public policy and outcomes, rhetoric and promises; who'll control the House & Senate have more bearing on future legislation promised vs passed. Market breadth is expanding, which bodes well for bullish trends. Most of markets' lift is coming from stock buy back activity. Interesting observation about the category luanches of ETF's: Most are derivative-based, adding risk for investors. Why your portfolio performance may be disappointing (how we screwed up the financial system). Lance and Danny discuss the performance gap between retail investors and the big funds: It's all about weighting. Markets today are built for pricing momentum. Focusing on risk mitigation to protect your portfolio from negative impacts over time. When someone promises you'll double your money...or not? There are promises and then there's reality. In answer to a YouTube chat comment, Lance discusses the false concept of market compounding. SEG-1: Market Breadth Expands SEG-2: Why Portfolio Performance Sucks (How We Screwed Up the Financial System) SEG-3: The Performance Gap Between Investors vs Funds SEG-4: Double Your Money...or not Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eno3BQhPGi4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-decline-over-as-investors-buy-the-dip/ "Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-growth-myth-why-socialism-is-rising/ "Share Repurchases End The Market Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Effect of the Zweig Breadth Thrust" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnvEjAwTBbY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Shall the Young Secure (Their Finances)" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-OidFl3g4M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RiskMitigation #InvestmentAdvice #AverageRateOfReturn #PortfolioImpact #RiskAvoidance #LossPrevention #FinancialStrategy #InvestmentProducts #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #PortfolioManagement #DownsideRisk #MarketVolatility #InvestmentStrategy #RiskAssessment #InvestmentPortfolio #FinancialConsiderations #WealthManagement #ManagingRisk #DownsideProtection #MarketReturns #FinancialSecurity #Markets #Money #Investing
8-21-24 The Effect of the Zweig Breadth Thrust
Markets recently triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust (say that three-times, fast!) resulting in a wider breadth in the market, which is healthy. That's helping markets' return, on average. There will still be corrective action in the markets, but the effect of the Zweig Breadth Thrust is more bullish than bearish market action. We now have the highest number of stock participating in the markets that we have seen over the past two years. This bodes well for market trajectories in the near-term; however, this trajectory will flatten and reverse eventually. Be careful being too bearish too early. Buy backs are driving a lot of the markets' advance. Buy backs are accelerating fast than dividend payments (chart). Currently, 9 of the 10 of the biggest share buy back companies are U.S., alone making up 25% of the entire buy back process. This is where all the lift in the markets is coming from. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnvEjAwTBbY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #ZweigBreadthThrust #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #InterestRates #RateReversal #BondYields #CrudeOil #EnergyStocks #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-19-24 Unpacking Kamalanomics And Economic Cycles In America (Re-feed)
Previews of the DNC Convention and Jackson Hole meeting previews, plus four Fed speakers on tap this week; Monkey Pox & Covid on the upswing ahead of election season. Markets stage a phenomenal recovery over the past five days; could interest rates reverse? Kamalanomics: A historical perspective on Economic Cycles: Why Prices Controls will exacerbate inflation; the myth of price gouging; the Tytler Cycle revisited. SEG-1: Phenomenal Market Recovery - Could Interest Rates Reverse? SEG-2: Kamalanomics, Pt. 1: Fixing Inflation w Price Controls SEG-3: Kamalanomics, Pt.2: The Myth of Price Gouging SEG-4A: Academy Carts & Anniversary Roombas SEG-4B: Kamalanomics, Pt. 3: This is Nothing New: The Tytler Cycle (You are Here) Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH-elSd8FHQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-growth-myth-why-socialism-is-rising/ "Share Repurchases End The Market Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is An Interest Rate Reversal Coming?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4p5FFDk7aA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Buy Dividend Stocks" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpYHGC8wAvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #KamalaHarris #PriceGouging #Kamalanomics #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EconomicData #EconomicCycle #HistoricalPatterns #RepeatedProcesses #AmericanEconomy #HistoryOfEconomics #EconomicTrends #FinancialCycles #EconomicRepetition #EconomicHistory #FinancialHistory #EconomicProcesses #CyclicalTrends #Markets #Money #Investing
8-20-24 How Shall the Young Secure (Their Finances)
Investors are waiting for this week's Jackson Hole confab, and will respond accordingly; when will markets take a breather? The DNC begins with economic nonsense. You cannot fix poverty by giving money away. Markets' rally straight up for eight days; pullback is coming: This is no time to chase stocks. Why the correction is over; three elements of economic uncertainty. Lance answers an email about helping youth prepare financially; the financial order of operations. Say no to credit card debt! You don't need it for a good credit score. Truth About Credit Scores: Do You Really Need Credit Cards? Pay your bills on time and have the money talk with your kids. What Lance would do if he was younger: aggressive saving early. Max out your 401K every year for financial growth! Invest in S&P 500 index and watch your savings grow. Start early! SEG-1: Waiting for Jackson Hole - Markets Will Respond SEG-2: Three Elements of Economic Uncertainty SEG-3: How Shall the Young Secure (Their Finances) SEG-4: What I Would Do if I Was Younger Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-OidFl3g4M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-decline-over-as-investors-buy-the-dip/ "Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-growth-myth-why-socialism-is-rising/ "Share Repurchases End The Market Correction" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "8-20-24 This is No Time to Chase Stocks" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpTrQgCZPPY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Unpacking Kamalanomics and Economic Cycles in America" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH-elSd8FHQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #KamalaHarris #PriceGouging #Kamalanomics #FinancialSecurity #CreditCards #CreditScore #UtilityBills #Rent #CarNote #FinancialAdvice #Parents #YoungAdults #Conversations #MoneyManagement #FinanceTips #Maximize #401KContribution #SP500Index #DollarCostAveraging #FullMatch #FinancialPlanning #LongTermInvestment #RetirementSavings #401KStrategy #FinancialAdvice #Markets #Money #Investing
8-20-24 This is Not the Time to Chase Stocks
Markets have literally had a straight-up rally over the past eight days...a very long stretch for markets to go without taking a breather. A bit of a pullback towards the 50-DMA at this point would not be surprising. This is not the time to chase stocks. The 20-DMA is starting to flatten, and when it turns up will provide additional support on a pullback. That will be your entry point for adding exposure to stocks you want to add. We're on a solid buy signal, and markets are getting a little over bought, so take care: The pullback will not be large or long in duration. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpTrQgCZPPY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #InterestRates #RateReversal #BondYields #CrudeOil #EnergyStocks #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-19-24 Is An Interest Rate Reversal Coming?
Great week, last week, as markets recovered from the Japanese Yen Trade Carry collapse. There is now a big gap between the S&P and the Japanese Yen, which has started to reverse a bit. We don't believe the whole issue-risk thing is quite over. Markets are behaving very similarly to markets in early 1987; coincidence? (We don't like analog comparisons of years to years, but this one is spooky!) Keep a watch on interest rates, which we believe could reverse for a retracement of rates. Rates are trending lower, but we're about to trigger a buy signal on interest rates. Crude oil continues to flop around in a consolidation range. International markets have been recovering; Emerging markets haven't done much since the 2020 crash. Some of these markets are actually delivering a drag to portfolio performance. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4p5FFDk7aA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #InterestRates #RateReversal #BondYields #CrudeOil #EnergyStocks #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-15-24 How to Buy Dividend Stocks
July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your personal experience with inflation is not the same as Government calculations, which is what markets look at. CPI was on the money, and the trend is lower. Economic data can fluctuate monthly. Focus on trends for a clearer picture! Lance and Michael answer an email question about investing in Dividend Stocks; what does the Yield infer? Looking at the Peg ratio, and what indicators about a company matter. Dividend stocks vs growth stocks. What makes for a better bond: Coupon vs Yield (how did the yield get there)? Lance and Michael address YouTube Chat question about Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's. SEG-1: CPI On-Target for Fed Rate Cuts SEG-2: Why We Have to Live with Government Numbers SEG-3: How to Evaluate Company Dividends SEG-4A: What's a Better Bond - Coupon vs Yield SEG-4B: Covered Call ETF's vs Dividend ETF's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpYHGC8wAvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stealth QE Or Rubbish From Dr Doom?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stealth-qe-or-rubbish-from-dr-doom/ "Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-mega-caps-about-to-be-a-mega-buy/ "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is This Correction Over?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azi3cmQKk54&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Looking for Rate Cut Clues in CPI Data" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYcQKsvQ1W0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EconomicData #SeasonalAdjustments #Trends #YearOverYearGrowth #ThreeMonthAverages #SixMonthAverages #DataFluctuations #StateReporting #DataGlitch #EconomicAnalysis #UnderstandingTrends #MonthToMonthData #AccurateInterpretation #EconomicIndicators #DataInterpretation #DividendStocks #CoveredCallETF #DividendETF #BondYield #BondCoupon #FinancialAdvice #StatisticalMethods #CarefulAnalysis #Markets #Money #Investing
8-15-24 Is This Correction Over?
Markets have enjoyed a 4.5% rally over the past five days, clearing the 100- and 20-DMA, and now right at the 50-DMA: Markets are now back on a buy signal and investors will challenge that 50-DMA today. If we can hold above the 50-DMA through Friday, this correction is over. At least, for now. One key element driving this rally: Share buy backs, and that window closes again in September. What will happen during the seasonal period of de-risking as buyback activity goes away as we go into the Election? Meanwhile, Bond Yields are starting to come back down following inflation reports showing a downward trend and inferring the Fed will start cutting rates. Crude Oil has had a decent rally, and there are a tremendous amount of shorts on oil prices. There is a potential risk for higher oil prices going into the Fall and the Elections; Energy stocks have been doing "okay;" we're being cautious with Energy. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azi3cmQKk54&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #ShareBuyBacks #100DMA #50DMA #20DMA #BondYields #CrudeOil #EnergyStocks #2024Election #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-14-24 Looking for Rate Cut Clues in CPI Data
The PPI number came in weaker than expected with lower input prices. Today's CPI report (a 0.2% monthly increase = 3.2% annual rate) weakness could spur the Fed to lower rates, although to what extent remains unknown. The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Summit could also provide impetus for the Fed's action in September. Meanwhile, markets on Tuesday cleared the 100-DMA, and are looking for confirmation at the 50-DMA. Will he or won't he? Danny's coaching decision remains to be seen. Why market remain resilient after the sell-off. YouTube Chat Q&A: Dealing with Teacher Retirement Fund taxation & fees; the retirement plan variables: What to do with a 401k at Retirement? How 401k's killed pensions (a very bad idea). What to do with 401k when changing jobs. Why pensions should go away vs 401k's; 401k vs IRA flexibilities. SEG-1: No Reason to Be Bearish SEG-2: Why Markets Remain Resilient After Sell-off SEG-3: What to Do w Your 401k at Retirement SEG-4: Pensions vs 401k's - A Bad Idea? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYcQKsvQ1W0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-mega-caps-about-to-be-a-mega-buy/ "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "No Reason to be Bearish" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED2D8OXTC-0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Four Reasons Mega-Caps Are Not Dead Yet" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uTqIghDtTw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PPI #CPI #Inflation #InterestRates #RetirementFunds #401k #Pension #IRA #RithIRA #Bonds #MegaCaps #MarketCrash #RealTimePricing #InvestmentAdvice #UnexpectedEvents #MarketPredictions #MarketValuation #RiskAssessment #FinancialStrategy #MarketDynamics #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #PricingMechanisms #MarketBehavior #SpeculativeAssumptions #FinancialMarkets #SurpriseFactors #MarketOutcomes #InvestmentPlanning #EconomicFactors #Markets #Money #Investing
8-14-24 No Reason to be Bearish
After clearing the 100-DMA, the next step will be a re-testing to confirm the bottom is in. The good news is that the markets cleared the 20-DMA...but, that's below the 50-DMA, which today will be key resistance. If markets can clear the 50-DMA today, that will clear resistance for markets to rise higher from here. We would not be surprised to see markets pull back at this point and retest the 100-DMA over the next few days. That would actually be healthy for markets, and allow markets to rally back from the 100-DMA. There is currently no overt reason to be bearish. There is a lot of buying power set up with the reopening of buy back windows which could at least keep markets supported, if not moving higher. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED2D8OXTC-0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #HigherBottom #RetestResistance #RebalancePortfolio #RebalanceRisk #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-13-24 Four Reasons Mega-Caps Are Not Dead Yet
It's economic report week, with previews of today's PPI, tomorrow's CPI, and Thursday's Retail sales numbers for July; will weaker consumer spending appear? Stock buybacks have returned. Markets to re-test 100-DMA, and set up to move up to the 20-DMA. Are the "Mega-Cap" stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors' attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. Lance & Jonathan discuss portfolio turnover and tax implications: If you're paying taxes, you made money! Never buy a stock for its dividend. Lance corrects the YouTube chatroom on companies; longevity; Lance & Jonathan discuss bonds, coupons, discounts, and total costs. Coupons vs Yield: The only aspect of a bond that matters. "Yield worst vs yield to maturity. SEG-1: PPI, CPI, & Retail Sales Previews SEG-2: Why Mega-Caps Are Not Dead SEG-3: Portfolio Turnover & Tax Implications SEG-4: The Only Aspect of Bonds that Matter Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uTqIghDtTw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/are-mega-caps-about-to-be-a-mega-buy/ "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Retesting Resistance" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBVD9H91LGA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Be Careful of Market Predictions " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N69vpdabuoU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Bonds #MegaCaps #MarketCrash #RealTimePricing #InvestmentAdvice #UnexpectedEvents #MarketPredictions #MarketValuation #RiskAssessment #FinancialStrategy #MarketDynamics #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #PricingMechanisms #MarketBehavior #SpeculativeAssumptions #FinancialMarkets #SurpriseFactors #MarketOutcomes #InvestmentPlanning #EconomicFactors #Markets #Money #Investing
8-13-24 Retesting Resistance
Monday's markets broke above the 100-DMA and re-tested intraday. A weak test, but a positive for the markets, completely closing Monday's sell-off. This sets up the market for a move upward to the 20-DMA (which has now crossed below the 50-DMA), which will be key resistance for the markets' first attempt at a re-test. Economic date to be released this week could temper markets' mood. For now, sentiment is positive, as markets recover from previous lows. Meanwhile, interest rates have begun a bit of retracement, and a hotter PPI report today could push rates up into the 4% range. We expect bond prices to move down as inflation reports come in hotter than expected. This is a good time to tend to your portfolio, reducing risk and raising cash. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBVD9H91LGA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #AI #HigherBottom #RetestResistance #RebalancePortfolio #RebalanceRisk #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-12-24 Be Careful of Market Predictions
Laying the groundwork for Fed rate cuts: Will they or won't they in September, and by how much? 80% of S&P companies have reported; stock buy back windows are back open for business; Q-2 earnings summary: Not great, not terrible. Is consumer spending slowing (and will earnings estimates fall)? Last week's market volatility: Still in the process of correction. Sell-off was recovered by Friday. After a muted open today, use any rally to reduce risk and raise cash. Lance jumps into the unpredictability of the market and challenges common assumptions. Discover why what you think you know might not be true: The importance of questioning market assumptions; the unpredictability of market behavior; why the market has already priced in expected events; the real-time nature of markets; common misconceptions about market crashes. What is happening as hedge funds de-gross and re-gross their holdings; why they have to invest in mega-cap companies. What are markets' inflation expectations? High volatility companies are hard to trade; is an 8% market return reasonable? SEG-1: Use the Rally SEG-2: What Caused the Crash SEG-3: Is This the Death of AI? SEG-4: Inflation Expectations: CPI, Retail Sales Previews Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N69vpdabuoU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Crash – Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Prepare to Retest & Rally " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHZrcyost8I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Kind of Inheritance Will You Leave Behind?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Mo4nvubJ_4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCrash #RealTimePricing #InvestmentAdvice #UnexpectedEvents #MarketPredictions #MarketValuation #RiskAssessment #FinancialStrategy #MarketDynamics #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #PricingMechanisms #MarketBehavior #SpeculativeAssumptions #FinancialMarkets #SurpriseFactors #MarketOutcomes #InvestmentPlanning #EconomicFactors #Markets #Money #Investing
8-12-24 Markets Prepare to Retest & Rally
Last Monday's Yen Carry Trade blow-up resulted in a 3% market correction & volatility shock. We're still in the midst of a 5- to 10% corrective phase. The market did, by the end of the week, completely recover from the effects of that sell off. Markets are looking to be up this morning, and our advice is to use this rally to remove risk in your portfolio, especially if you weren't pleased with results last week. Raising a bit of cash now will enable you to better weather whatever comes next, and prepare you for the next buying opportunity. There are two paths forward from this point, and we think the most likely will be a rally to test resistance, failure, and the establishment of a new, higher bottom (which will be a buying opportunity), and then a rally higher. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHZrcyost8I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MarketRally #AI #HigherBottom #RetestResistance #RebalancePortfolio #RebalanceRisk #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-9-24 What Kind of Inheritance Will You Leave Behind?
With the turmoil of the past week, now is a good time to reassess your portfolio, and rebalance the risk. What is the deal with stocks advertising on TV? Wealth transferrence & Inheritances: How common is it for children to meet with parent and financial advisor? If there's money left... How RMD's can calter inheritances; how gift-giving works. Lance's kids are 'off the payroll.' Are you planning to receive an inheritance? How life-long gift-giving can work; what are the tax implications? Using gifting as an opportunity to teach about money & stewardship. Estate Planning prep: When do you need a trust? (Implications in the event of divorce.) Don't let the documents talk; have a conversation with your kids about the money. Dealing with tax torpedos in Social Security; taxation and Roth's: The Rothification of America. SEG-1: Market Commentary: Now is a Good Time for Portfolio Rebalancing SEG-2: Gift-giving Your Inheritance Early SEG-3: Planning for (Receiving) An Inheritance SEG-4: Estate Planning Prep: When Do You Need a Trust? Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Mo4nvubJ_4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/ "The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/ "Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/ "Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj- ------- Our previous show is here: "Trapped Longs Take the Exit" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inheritance #FinancialPlanning #RothConversaions #TaxTorpedo #SocialSecurity #EstatePlanning #Stewardship #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Bonds #Gold #Recession #ISMServicesIndex #Markets #Money #Investing
8-8-24 Trapped Longs Take the Exit
Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity. SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/ "The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/ "Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/ "Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj- ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrappedLongs #SahmRule #RecessionIndicator #MarketCorrection #CarryTrade #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionMisconception #YieldCurveUninversion #EconomicIndicators #FinancialHeadlines #InvertedYieldCurve #RecessionPrediction #EconomicAnalysis #MarketSignals #InterestRates #BondYields #EconomicCycles #FinancialMedia #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Bonds #Gold #Recession #ISMServicesIndex #Markets #Money #Investing
8-8-24 Market Exuberance Reverses
The market correction didn't start on Monday; it actually started in July at the markets' peak. Then markets began to steadily sell off until tapping the 20-DMA, and that's when markets fell sharply, as the unwinding of the Yen carry trade began to really happen. On Wednesday the market rallied right into the 100-DMA, and trapped-longs sold off with markets ending at their lows for the day. Sellers are now getting exhausted and sentiment is turning more bearish, which is what markets needed. Today: Pay attention to Bond prices (not yields); we expect them to move back to support a cluster of moving averages at about 4.1% on the Ten-year Treasury. Bonds are not quite oversold yet, so no entry point on bonds just yet. As the Fed begins to cut rates, that will exert downward pressure on yields, pushing bond prices higher. That's not going to happen overnight, however. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketExuberance #ExuberanceReversal #InvestorSentiment #MarketBounce #MarketCorrection #Resistance #TrappedLongs #CarryTrade #MarginCalls #JapaneseYen #USDollar #MarketCaution #2024Election #InvestorCaution #NASDAQ #NASDAQcorrection #100DMA #20DMA #50DMA #Retest #SupportLevel #BondYields #BondPrices #FederalReserve #RateCuts #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-7-24 Is the Crisis Over?
Is the crisis over? Too soon to tell, but the Nikkei did rebound, the Yen is coming down, and the BOJ is hold steady on rates. Earnings season continues; and it's too soon to suume the market has found the bottom. Admonition to be wary of the narratives. Market rally into the 100-DMA, buyt unlikely to test resistance the 50-DMA just yet. Understanding the Yen Carry Trade; risk management vs greed. Diversification worked on Monday. The Fed soesn't even know what they're going to do; they're behind the curve. How we created inflation, and expecting recession. Remembering Texas' gasoline lines in the '70's. Harry Dent's perpetual doom & gloom: If market decline 94% we'll have more to worry about than stocks. Will your financial plan survive the next crash? The Ernon and WorldCom debacles; what risk management really means. Investor sentiment & the Sahm Rule: This time IS different. General market sentiment remains extremely bullish. FOMO of market bottom; Monday's bottom is likely not The Bottom of the market. SEG-1: Markets Rally & Retest 100-DMA SEG-2: Why Diversification Worked During Monday's Crash SEG-3: What Risk Management Really Entails SEG-4: Why Monday's Bottom is Likely NOT The Bottom Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/ "Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Bounce Back after Monday's Crash" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I2RvwFcN5w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Selling Over?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=De_ft6IWTq8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #CarryTrade #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionMisconception #YieldCurveUninversion #EconomicIndicators #FinancialHeadlines #InvertedYieldCurve #RecessionPrediction #EconomicAnalysis #MarketSignals #InterestRates #BondYields #EconomicCycles #FinancialMedia #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Bonds #Gold #Recession #ISMServicesIndex #Markets #Money #Investing
8-7-24 Markets Bounce Back after Monday Crash
Markets on Tuesday bounced off their lows to rally into the 100-DMA as a first test of resistance following Monday's crash. And with a lot of "trapped-longs," sellers showed up immediately. Markets sold off, but finished positive for the day. Markets today could potentially rally up to retest the 100-DMA, and move on up to the 50-DMA is also a possibility, but not as likely today. (Previous market crash/corrections have always rallied to retest and set higher-lows before completing their correction process.) So it's okay to nibble a bit at stocks that have gotten beaten up, but be really careful and be willing to lose a little money on a position until a new bottom is set. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I2RvwFcN5w&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBounce #MarketCorrection #Resistance #TrappedLongs #CarryTrade #MarginCalls #JapaneseYen #USDollar #MarketCaution #2024Election #InvestorCaution #NASDAQ #NASDAQcorrection #100DMA #20DMA #50DMA #Retest #SupportLevel #SectorRotation #MegaCap #RussellSmallCap # #OverboughtMarkets #BuySignal #SellSignal #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-6-24 Is the Selling Over?
Monday's Carry Trade-inspired blowout saw lots of selling , but a little bit of recovery before the dust settled. The ISM Services Report clocked-in a little stronger than expected, taking fears of imminent Recession off the table. The Fed might not have to cut rates as much. Markets are now over sold by three standard deviations off the moving average; a bounce is in the office, but this could be the beginning of a bigger correction. Lance and Jon provide some clarification and perspective: Market points vs percentages; now vs 2020 or 1980: how much are we up since 202? Recessions are based on consumer sentiment and contraction in spending. How the "unwinding" creates another cycle of unwinding; note that 82% of S&P companies are now out of the stock buy back blackout period; some volume to return, at lower prices. The underperformance of Gold is why we don't talk about it much; if you're going to own it (it's a commodity!) own coins with numismatic value, not bullion: How to convert to currency? The importance of understanding what you own. Too Late to buy bonds for now: Wait for some consolidation: U.S. Treasuries, not corporate or "high yield" (a.k.a junk) bonds. The risk of Recession is heightened because of slower consumer spending and negativity. Bond will come back, but will take time. SEG-1: Monday Market Recap: Lots of Selling w Some Recovery SEG-2: Could This Be the Beginning of a Bigger Correction? SEG-3: Why Gold Underperforms SEG-4: Too Late to Buy Bonds Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=De_ft6IWTq8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/ "Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Next for Markets Will Be a Bounce" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQ5fj8q9sj8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Understanding Yield Curves: Inversion Doesn't Guarantee a Recession " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD8NT01ii28&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CarryTrade #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionMisconception #YieldCurveUninversion #EconomicIndicators #FinancialHeadlines #InvertedYieldCurve #RecessionPrediction #EconomicAnalysis #MarketSignals #InterestRates #BondYields #EconomicCycles #FinancialMedia #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Bonds #Gold #Recession #ISMServicesIndex #Markets #Money #Investing
8-6-24 Next for Markets Will Be a Bounce
The Carry Trade blow out created a market that is now oversold by more than three standard deviations. The most logical, next move for markets will be a bounce. Keep in mind, as sharp as Monday's drop was, we're still only 8% down from the peak, meaning we're still withing a normal, corrective process at this point. If markets fall further, say to the 200-DMA, that's a move of about 10%, and we think that's likely what's going to happen. BUT...before that can occur, there are two, very big gaps that must be filled: Big selloffs occur so quickly, there's little time for investors to react, resulting in "trapped longs" looking for any rally to sell into. That will lead to a re-test of the 200-DMA. This is why it's important to use rallies to reduce risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQ5fj8q9sj8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBounce #MarketCorrection #TrappedLongs #CarryTrade #MarginCalls #JapaneseYen #USDollar #MarketCaution #2024Election #InvestorCaution #NASDAQ #NASDAQcorrection #20DMA #50DMA #Retest #SupportLevel #SectorRotation #MegaCap #RussellSmallCap # #OverboughtMarkets #BuySignal #SellSignal #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-5-24 Understanding Yield Curves: Inversion Doesn't Guarantee a Recession
August begins with weaker employment and the Fed hinting at the possiblity of a 1/2% rate cut; The Japanese Carry Trade blos up: What is it and why does it matter? Look for the largest spike in volatility since the pandemic. Be careful amid emotional headlines; Markets have already been over sold and now need to bounce. Anything that is a risk assett will be affected; bonds are over bought: Today is a day to do nothing. Lance's movie reviwe of Deadpool & Wolverine: Not for the faint of heart or kids. Risks to the market from an exogenous, unexpected event, a consequence of the collapse of the Carryt Trade. What will happen when the Fed cuts rates? When the Yield Curve inversion reverses, get ready for Recession. Lance answers YouTube chat questions: Everything risk-related will be douns; the only "safe" investments are cash and U.S. Treasury Bonds. Don't panic; expect a little bit of buying by the end of the day, buying the dip[. SEG-1: The Carry Trade Blows Up: What is it? SEG-2: Putting Things Into Perspective: Don't Panic SEG-3: Two Risks to Markets Now SEG-4: YouTube Q&A: Gold, Buying the Dip, Next Moves Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jD8NT01ii28&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell," 8-5-24 Why The Carry Trade Matters" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ec2AkoS2O_I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is inflation Beating or Benefiting You?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgEGRycUhEw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CarryTrade #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionMisconception #YieldCurveUninversion #EconomicIndicators #FinancialHeadlines #InvertedYieldCurve #RecessionPrediction #EconomicAnalysis #MarketSignals #InterestRates #BondYields #EconomicCycles #FinancialMedia #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Markets #Money #Investing
8-5-24 Why The Carry Trade Matters
What is the Carry Trade (and why does it matter)? Lance explains the mechanics of carry trades and yield spreads, and why the Japanese Yen and U.S. Dollar behaviors are causing an unwinding of that carry trade, and when margins go wrong. Reality check: The markets are fine. Markets have been spooked by some unexpected, exogenous event...like the unwinding of the carry trade. This will lead to selling across the board today, and not just in stocks. Anything that is a risk asset will be affected. What should you do? Nothing. Markets were already deeply over-sold. Watch for a spike in volatility. Let the day play out, and avoid any knee-jerk reactions. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ec2AkoS2O_I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CarryTrade #MarginCalls #JapaneseYen #USDollar #MarketCaution #2024Election #InvestorCaution #NASDAQ #NASDAQcorrection #20DMA #50DMA #Retest #SupportLevel #SectorRotation #MegaCap #RussellSmallCap # #OverboughtMarkets #BuySignal #SellSignal #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
8-2-24 Is inflation Beating or Benefiting You?
Richard and Danny discuss the week's market moves, and how bad news is actually bad news now; Intel's poor performance should be no surprise to astute investors; sometimes "value" stocks are value traps. Understanding (and avoiding) the day-to-day media hype. How to use "Money Buckets" to balance risks and demands on retirement funds; 2024 looks to be a mirror of 2023, with weaker economics. How to balance two sides of the economy. People are "making more money than ever before, and feeling more broker..." What happens in a deflationary environment, and why a little inflation is healthy. We're looking for low-growth muck in 2025; households are hurting. A tale of two economies. Looking at demographics and the value of having kids. Dealing with the RMD 10-year rule: It's an art form to take out funds. RMD eliminates desirable flexibility. It's a ticking tax time bomb. Taking advantage of current tax rates while they're "low." SEG-1: Bad News IS Bad News SEG-2: Money Buckets in Troubled Times SEG-3: Why a Little Inflation is Good SEG-4: The Pre-Tax IRA is the Fatted Calf Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgEGRycUhEw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is There Value In Small Cap Value Versus Large Cap Growth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/interest-rates-are-too-is-there-value-in-small-cap-value-versus-large-cap-growth/ "Bullish Years Often Have Corrections" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-years-often-have-corrections/ "Pullback Doesn't Deter Investor Bullishness" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "8-1-24 Market Bull Trend Remains Intact" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79762x_wVdU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Inflation Drops Below Fed's 2% Goal, Signaling Weakening Economic Pressures " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_fLAZCwJa8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #ValueStocks #ValueTraps #RMD #MoneyBuckets #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRates #2024Election #Inflation #Deflation #YearOverYear #FedTargetRate #InflationaryPressures #Receding #EmploymentCostIndex #RealWageGrowth #YearOverYearWageGrowth #PricePresure #BondMarket #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #JanetYellen #Treasury #Markets #Money #Investing
8-1-24 Inflation Drops Below Fed's 2% Goal, Signaling Weakening Economic Pressures
Jerome Powell's presser was a snooze-fest, with the Fed's stance on interest rates remaining unchanged (at least they didn't hint of more rate hikes!) Markets also responded to clarifications on chip bans and performance reports from AMB & MSFT. The "AI is Dead" narrative is way too early; largest growth in data center construction is in the US. Rewards for beating earnings estimates have been mild. Managers have been "de-grossing" portfolios, will now revert to "grossing-up" holdings following earnings season. Powell says pricing and inflation pressures are "equal;" concerns now turn to employment, which is about at the level before the pandemic (Powell already has Friday's employment numbers). Fed is poised to cut rates in September. Lance and Michael discuss the latest inflation data and its implications for the economy; analysis of the recent drop in the inflation index to 1.5%, and the absence of significant wage growth pressures: Inflation index falls below the Fed's 2% target rate; inflationary pressures receding on various fronts; employment cost index slightly down; no substantial real wage growth pressures observed; year-over-year wage growth on the decline. Lance & Michael also discuss the bond market's bearishness; Are we out of the woods yet with bonds? This bear market is the longest since 1790! Economic slowdown and low inflation are driving yields down. The biggest problem facing Bonds is the deficit; Janet Yellen wants to keep rates as low as possible to better manage debt. Lance addresses Bond Yield question about holding to maturity. SEG-1: Markets Respond to Nothing New from the Fed SEG-2: Powell Presser: Price & Inflation Pressures Now Equal SEG-3: Is the Bear Market in Bonds Finally Over? SEG-4: Is the Treasury Manipulating Markets w Their Offerings? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_fLAZCwJa8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is There Value In Small Cap Value Versus Large Cap Growth" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/interest-rates-are-too-is-there-value-in-small-cap-value-versus-large-cap-growth/ "Bullish Years Often Have Corrections" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-years-often-have-corrections/ "Pullback Doesn't Deter Investor Bullishness" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "8-1-24 Market Bull Trend Remains Intact" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79762x_wVdU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Navigating Financial Freedom on Your Own Terms" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B31ZSUJGGJM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRates #2024Election #Inflation, #YearOverYear #FedTargetRate #InflationaryPressures #Receding #EmploymentCostIndex #RealWageGrowth #YearOverYearWageGrowth #PricePresure #BondMarket #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #JanetYellen #Treasury #Markets #Money #Investing
8-1-24 Market Bull Trend Remains Intact
The month of August tends to be okay for investors, but in an election year tends to be weaker, and September, seasonally-speaking, tends to be the weakest of the months. Noting the behavior of the NASDAQ of late, it appears a reflexive rally is much more likely following the recent sell-off. Portfolio managers' de-grossing of their holdings has resulted in an under-weighing of portfolios, which will be remedied by a "re-grossing" of their holdings as earnings season winds down, leading to a bit more of a rally in the near term. This activity will continue to run along a trend line at the 100-DMA, indicating the bullish trend remains intact. There remains more work to be done ahead of the elections in November. It will be no surprise, therefore, to see markets become a bit more cautious ahead of the election. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79762x_wVdU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCaution #2024Election #InvestorCaution #NASDAQ #NASDAQcorrection #20DMA #50DMA #Retest #SupportLevel #SectorRotation #MegaCap #RussellSmallCap # #OverboughtMarkets #BuySignal #SellSignal #MarketBullishness #MarketCorrection #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
7-31-24 Navigating Financial Freedom on Your Own Terms
It's Fed Day, and Lance Roberts previews potential outcomes to be announced Thursday afternoon. Earnings season continues, with MSFT reporting revenue of only 29% for the quarter vs the anticipated 30% growth. Shucks. Our take on what to take from the NASDAQ correction: Opportunity. Markets are "flirting w disaster" around the 50-DMA: what will be the Black Swan Event (and why would anyone wish for it)? The illusion of wealth in America; Lance and Danny discuss the importance of questioning financial assumptions and societal expectations; how these expectations can lead to unnecessary financial strain: Challenging the notion of "have to" when it comes to financial decisions; the pressure to spend large amounts on weddings and college education; questioning the necessity of certain expenses; the importance of evaluating financial priorities; encouraging viewers to make informed financial choices based on their unique circumstances. SEG-1: Fed Day Preview & NASDAQ Correction SEG-2: Flirting w Disaster at the 50-DMA SEC-3: The Illusion of Wealth in America SEG-4: Bankrupting Your Retirement for Your Children? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B31ZSUJGGJM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: Bullish Years Often Have Corrections https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-years-often-have-corrections/ "Pullback Doesn't Deter Investor Bullishness" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "NASDAQ Correction: Here's Our Take" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea9nQUqvgMw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why Market Comparisons Can Hinder Your Portfolio's Performance " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdP-essdjaM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FinancialPlanning #FutureFinancialFreedom #WeddingExpenses #CollegeExpenses #FinancialPriorities #Budgeting #FinancialDecisions #FinancialGoals #FinancialResponsibility #MoneyManagement #FinancialIndependence #FinancialSecurity #FinancialStress #FinancialExpectations #FinancialObligations #FinancialTradeOffs #FinancialSacrifices #FinancialChoices #FinancialMindset #Markets #Money #Investing"