The Real Investment Show Podcast

Retail Sales numbers today, and earnings recaps (so far) and previews; looking for an outsized seasonal adjustment to Retail Sales due to calendar anomalies; there's nothing overly concerning to markets. The big focus will be the election and it's outcome and control of House & Senate: The market hates uncertainty, and loves gridlock. Lance refutes rash of negative videos: Markets see nothing of concern. Market Bears are on parade, what does the rise in Volatility mean? The VIX is implied volatility: Will market move a lot or a little, but not in which direction. It is indicative of markets' expectations for activity. Understanding Implied Volatility: Put-call ratios vs Skew Ratios; what is this tool for? Lance eschews wife's suggestion of tea instead of coffee; Retail Sales preview & potential Fed response; The economy is strong, but weakening, from a very high level. The Fed is trying to normalize interest rates, which are still too high and a threat to "Goldilocks Economy." SEG-1: What Really Matters to Markets in 2024 Election SEG-2: What Does the Rise in Market Volatility Mean? SEG-3: Understanding Implied Volatility SEG-4: Coffee vs Tea, Retail Sales Preview & Potential Fed Response Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ajA-yTT_NM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=485s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The VIX And Market Climb: Should We Care?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-vix-and-market-climb-should-we-care/ "Cava: A Hot Trend Comes At A Dear Cost To Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/cava-a-hot-trend-comes-at-a-dear-cost-to-investors/ "Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/greed-and-how-to-lose-100-of-your-money/ "GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/gdp-report-continues-to-defy-recession-forecasts/ "NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "How Howard Marks Thinks About Risk…And You Should Too" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/how-howard-marks-thinks-about-risk-and-you-should-too/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Will Trend Higher...Until they Don't" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUMtRETZHK4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "You Ain't Rich" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnNxECRmvus&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketTrends #VIXIndex #RiskManagement #InvestorMindset #MarketVolatility #VIX #IsraelIranWar #CrudeOil #InvestmentMistakes #GreedAndLoss #FinancialRisk #AvoidInvestmentLoss #MoneyManagement #RecessionReady #PortfolioStrategy #InvestmentProtection #DiversifyNow #MarketPositioning #EarningsSeason #MarketSeasonality #AllTimeHighs #CPIReport #GDPReport #NFIBConfidenceIndex #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Recession #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Despite a plethora of negative videos proclaiming the imminence of market crashes, this market looks like 2007, and the end of the world is upon us (and there were plenty of headlines about a "soft landing" and a Goldilocks economy back then, too), markets currently are not suggesting any of that.: Markets have continued to make new highs, grinding along an upward trendline. Where does this leave us? We always caution against investing with reckless abandon, but there's also no reason to be overly bearish at this time. The trick to managing money is understanding that markets will trend higher until they don't. There is plenty of liquidity coming into the markets; global liquidity on a relative basis is at some of the highest levels we've seen since the financial crisis because there's no where else for the money to go. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUMtRETZHK4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Cava: A Hot Trend Comes At A Dear Cost To Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/cava-a-hot-trend-comes-at-a-dear-cost-to-investors/ ------- G et more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #Negativity #HigherHighs #UpwardTrendline #InterestRates #IsraelIranWar #BullMarketRisk #SeasonalBuySignal #CPI #CPITrigger #Inflation #MACD #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

Will the strength (or weakness) of the consumer be revealed in this week's Retail Sales report? Liquidity is continuing to flow into markets; if things are so good, why all the liquidity flows? Stock buy backs resume in 10-days, adding $6-B/day of more liquidity (which is NOT a return of capital to investors.) Energy stock exposure exoansion: As interest rates rise, so have oil prices. MACD Sell signal has been triggered, and we anticipate falling oil prices through the end of the year. Lance shares another Life w the Roberts' anecdote about son, Tommy; What does it take to be rich? Dealing with the lifestyle creep, and why many families are still one paycheck away from financial disaster. Raising the Roberts' kids in reality: What was your first car? How to really count wealth: perceptions vs reality. 7 things to disucss when planning for wealth; how will you spend your time in retirement? The things clients say advisors fail to mention; the Roberts' budget and Christina & Michelle's Christmas presents. SEG-1: Why All the Liquidity (if things are so great)? SEG-2a: Life w The Roberts' - Tommy's Test Taking SEG-2b: What Does it Take to Be Rich? SEG-3a: Lance & Danny's First Cars SEG-3b: Wealth: Perception vs Reality SEG-4: Things Clients Say Advisors Never Mention Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnNxECRmvus&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/greed-and-how-to-lose-100-of-your-money/ "GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/gdp-report-continues-to-defy-recession-forecasts/ "NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "How Howard Marks Thinks About Risk…And You Should Too" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/how-howard-marks-thinks-about-risk-and-you-should-too/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Oil Prices May Continue to Decline" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-MtU1GsZy8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acqg2G62gh4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2441s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #WealthInequality #MiddleClassWealth #EconomicTrends #MoneyMindset #FinancialSecurity #UpperClass #MiddleClass #BeingRich #InvestmentMistakes #GreedAndLoss #FinancialRisk #AvoidInvestmentLoss #MoneyManagement #RecessionReady #PortfolioStrategy #InvestmentProtection #DiversifyNow #MarketPositioning #EarningsSeason #MarketSeasonality #AllTimeHighs #CPIReport #GDPReport #NFIBConfidenceIndex #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Recession #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

We previously added exposure to Energy stocks when they were all beat up, and following a correction in oil prices, we expected to see a pick-up. That has happened. As oil prices go up, so do interest rates because of the impact on inflation expectations from higher oil prices. That rally became very over extended and has now flipped with news that Israel will not attack oil fields in Iran. That, in turn, has triggered a fairly high-level MACD Sell signal, suggesting that oil prices could retract further over the next several months. That translated into a sell-off in Bond yields. The buy signal is also at very high levels; that doesn't mean we can't see a correction even though we're in a very bullish environment. In fact, a correction back to the 20-DMA would not be surprising. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-MtU1GsZy8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #OilPrices #EnergyStocks #BondYields #BondPrices #InterestRates #IsraelIranWar #BullMarketRisk #SeasonalBuySignal #CPI #CPITrigger #Inflation #MACD #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

Retail Sales figures should be interesting, as retailers were stocking up ahead of the short-lived dockworkers' strike. Lance previews Thanksgiving at the Roberts' house, featuring brisket! Earnings week continues with a string of the most negative earnings revisions in a long while. Markets operating under a seasonal buy signal and an ever-upward trend: What could possibly go wrong? Lance discusses the importance of risk management in a bull market environment. How to lose 100% of your Money? Greed is a necessity fto build wealth; also must be optimistic & willing to take risk. The trouble with trading options: All or nothing proposition. The sad saga of Christopher DeVocht vs RBC and his Tesla investments. Lance explains Means, Mediums, and Modes. The life-changing effects of money: The importance of taking profits/money off the table. Understanding greed; importance of separating emotion from investing. The three destructive forms of greed. The fiduciary responsibility of financial advisors (did DeVocht follow his advisors' admonitions?) Passive vs active investing. SEG-1: Retail Sales Preview & Impact on GDP SEG-2: Greed & The Saga of Christopher DeVocht SEG-3: The Three Destructive Forms of Greed SEG-4: The Fiduciary Responsibility of Financial Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acqg2G62gh4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2441s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/greed-and-how-to-lose-100-of-your-money/ "GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/gdp-report-continues-to-defy-recession-forecasts/ "NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "How Howard Marks Thinks About Risk…And You Should Too" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/how-howard-marks-thinks-about-risk-and-you-should-too/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "A Bull Market Can Still Be Risky" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If6QnYwXC1U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Wall St. vs. Main St. - Who's Right?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMcYhyo5OW8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentMistakes #GreedAndLoss #FinancialRisk #AvoidInvestmentLoss #MoneyManagement #RecessionReady #PortfolioStrategy #InvestmentProtection #DiversifyNow #MarketPositioning #EarningsSeason #MarketSeasonality #AllTimeHighs #CPIReport #GDPReport #NFIBConfidenceIndex #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Recession #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

How can a seasonal buy signal comport with the need to manage market risk? You can have a market trending higher and still have risk: When you see markets moving ever higher, and become extremely deviated from the averages, it implies that you're going to have some kind of corrective action = risk. So even though you're in a bull market trend, and even though you have a seasonal buy signal it doesn't mean that you should avoid risk management. Deviations from the 50- and 200-DMA tend to correct back to the average...which is why they're called averages. Market behaviors around that event are what we must watch for. The opportunity to buy dips is what we need to identify. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If6QnYwXC1U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BullMarketRisk #SeasonalBuySignal #CPI #CPITrigger #Inflation #MACD #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

It's Earnings Season "Rush Week" this week, with the bulk of companies reporting 3rd Quarter results; after that, the stock buy back window is prepared to re-open, providing nearlt $1-T in funds to flood the markets. The median value of stock portfolios is $250k, up from $190k. Demand for AI chips is not going away. Markets entering the seasonallt-strong period of the year after hitting new, all-time highs on Friday, triggering a buy signal. The risk of a deeper contraction is possible, but now unlikely. An analysis of the latest CPI numbers reveals a contrast between headline numbers and details in the data; there are some anomalies. Lance discusses the 8 components of the CPI & their weighting in the index. Life with the Roberts' reviews the weekend birthday of the youngest daughter, and fun with Gunner the Wonder Dog. The latest GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts. GDP vs Inflation is slowing; NFIB Confidence is on the wane: Small businesses "feel like" they're in recession. Expectations for Retail Sales vs their reality; Cap Ex plans vs Real GDP; why small businesses are not optimistic. SEG-1: Earnings Season Rush Week SEG-2: CPI Analysis: Headline Numbers vs Details & Data SEG-3: Economic Data Does Not Support Recession...but... SEG-4: Why Small Businesses Are Concerned Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMcYhyo5OW8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/gdp-report-continues-to-defy-recession-forecasts/ "NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Bull Market Remains Intact" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZJ1LXlxnyo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Rising Volatility, China Stimulus, & Storms' Economic Surge: What They Mean for Portfolios" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJZp1muy9zA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EarningsSeason #MarketSeasonality #AllTimeHighs #CPIReport #GDPReport #NFIBConfidenceIndex #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Recession #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The Seasonal Buy Signal is ON. The seasonally-strong period typically runs from October thru May, and is known as the best 6-months of the year. Stock pullbacks typically occur in the Summer, as we saw this year. Markets broke out to a new, all-time high on Friday; in a confirmation the the bull market remains intact. On a weekly basis (which slows down the date), we have triggered a buy signal, and this now corresponds with the seasonally-stronger period of the year, which suggests markets will continue to push higher into year's end. At the moment, there appears no risk to the markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZJ1LXlxnyo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #CPITrigger #Inflation #MACD #SellSignal #InterestRates #RateCut #BondMarket #BondRates #BondYields #BondOpportunities #Volatility #2024Election #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

All was not hunky-dory in the recent Fed meeting, as the FOMC Meeting minutes reveal a split-decision on lowering rates by 50-bps vs 25-bps. Meanwhile, in the markets, the S&P is having its Best Year Ever since the "turn of the century." The current, rising wedge is both a bullish and bearish sign; CPI numbers will be today's trigger. Volatility in the markets, thanks to uncertainty over presidential election outcome, Israel-Iran war effect on oil prices, etc. The VIX doesn't always tell you everything. We're at the beginning of a Fed-easing campaign; the Hawkish-Dovish Fed has a bipolar problem. A look at the China trade syndrome, and rush of investment in Chinese tech sector: When everyone's on the same side of the boat, better get to the other side. We've become Pavlov's dogs, chasing China. Does China care as much about its stock market as the Fed cares about the US stock market? (no.) Why we avoid BRICS country investments; paying a premium to invest in the US where there is Rule of Law. Lance reviews the Broken Window Theory and the economic impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton. The pulling forward of consumption now will boost economic activity at the expense of an economic void later. SEG-1: FOMC Meeting Minutes: Split-decision SEG-2: The VIX Doesn't Always Tell You Everything SEG-3: The China (Trade) Syndrome SEG-4: Hurricanes & Broken Window Theory Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Tales of Cobras, Windows, and Economic Promise" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tales-of-cobras-windows-and-economic-promise/ "How Howard Marks Thinks About Risk…And You Should Too" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/how-howard-marks-thinks-about-risk-and-you-should-too/ "Election Outcome Presents Opportunity For Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/election-outcome-presents-opportunity-for-investors/ "Technical Analysis – 3 Bullish And Bearish Takes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will CPI Report Trigger a MACD Buy Signal?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnIChkDuJnM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Markets Rally: What Tuesday's Tech Stock Surge Means for Investors" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJZp1muy9zA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Hurricane #BrokenWindowTheory #ChinaInvesting #BRICS #BondMarket #BondRates #BondYields #BondOpportunities #Volatility #2024Election #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #FOMCMeetingMinutes #BipolarFed #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #HowardMarks #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

There is a very define, rising wedge in the markets, which is both bullish and bearish: It all depends upon to which side markets break out next. As of Wednesday (9/9), we are right at the top of that bullish wedge. IF today's CPI report is good, and markets break to the upside, you will see markets continue higher, triggering a buy signal on the MACD. If inflation comes in hotter-than-expected, markets will sell off in anticipation of a reduction of odds of another rate cut. For now, bullish activity continues, with the 20-DMA acting as support; this compression of price is about to resolve itself. The trend of the markets remains clearly bullish. We are having one of the best years in the S&P since the turn of the century. The rising trend continues to play out; earnings are okay, economic growth is fine, and there is no indication of any troublesome impact ahead that would change the dynamic of the market. Yet. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnIChkDuJnM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #CPITrigger #Inflation #MACD #SellSignal #InterestRates #RateCut #BondMarket #BondRates #BondYields #BondOpportunities #Volatility #2024Election #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

The Trauma of Hurricanes revisited: Hurricane Alicia (1983) remembered as Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida today; Lance shares his bizzare dream about aliens refuting Flat-earthers; why high interest rates are unsustainable. Fed rate cuts don't mean rates will go straight down. Why 4% rates cannot last for long. Markets rally amid price compression; what is sustaining markets, historically high, without any Fed liquidity injection. Analysts are still targeting S&P 6000 by the end of the year. NFIB members note borrowing rates at 8% are too high, and will erode economic growth and any business expansion. Lance expresses frustration with UPS over the mishandling of his expensive subwoofer shipped to FLorida for repairs. Investors have interest rate PTSD; trading bonds now; don't try to beat the market. The 2024 Election, Interest Rates, and waiting things out; rationalizing not investing now. Preparing for election outcomes, regardless of who wins. Why it's easy not to invest; investing in bonds; the potential for a larger correction; the problem with waiting; building a portfolio to generate income. SEG-1: Hurricane Trauma, Alien Dreams, & Bond Opportunities SEG-2: S&P Still Targeting 6000 by EOY SEG-3a: Lance's Rant: Subwoofer Repair & UPS Fail SEG-3b: Investors have Interest Rate PTSD SEG-4: How to Prepare Your Portfolio for Any Election Outcome Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJZp1muy9zA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "How Howard Marks Thinks About Risk…And You Should Too" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/how-howard-marks-thinks-about-risk-and-you-should-too/ "Election Outcome Presents Opportunity For Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/election-outcome-presents-opportunity-for-investors/ "Technical Analysis – 3 Bullish And Bearish Takes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Opportunity to Buy Bonds is Coming" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b3G4Syzo00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "You Can't Avoid Risk - But You Can Manage It" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVy63Ct2Azs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2864s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BondMarket #BondRates #BondYields #BondOpportunities #Volatility #2024Election #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketRisk #HowardMarks #ManagingRisk #MoneyFlows #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Is the era of low interest rates over? Lots of videos being posted to that effect, that the economic data doesn't support higher rates, there's too much debt for higher rates, etc., etc. That doesn't mean that rates have to come straight down when the start to go lower. Well, rates have begun to fall, and we've had the predictable result of bonds selling off and bond yields moving higher. Friday's strong Jobs report also contributed a little knee-jerk reaction to push yields higher, as well. Bonds are currently on a sell signal, so if you've been looking for an opening to get into bonds, be patient; it's coming. High interest rates cannot last forever; NFIB members are reporting borrowing rates at 8%, which is just unsustainable. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b3G4Syzo00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BondMarket #BondRates #BondYields #BondOpportunities #Volatility #2024Election #Employment #MarketVolatility #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

The key to successfully managing money is managing risk. Economnic news is absent; no 50bps rate cut in November, thanks to a strong jobs report, and markets are adjusting to that reality. One off shoot of Jobs report shows more workers seeking secondary, part time employment to make ends meet. Markets sold off on Monday, as price compresion continues. Markets may be stuck untikl earnings season provides direction. Managing risk: A function of loss; Howard Marks on Risk: there is a symmetry of risk and volatility, of gains vs losses. You cannot quantify risk; the challenge is how to best structure outcomes. The risk of missing gains; risk is deceptive. When markets feel safest, they are most-risky. Price matters more than quality. Toll roads, I don't care, Christmas Deco, & Money Flows: Where is all the money going? The Everything Market. NOT investing has risk. There will always be a 'what-if?' james Webb telescope and Aliens on the way. There are no stupid questions; this show is about Osmosis. Don't treat your advisor like a mutual fund. SEG-1: Markets Adapt to No 50bps Rate Cut in November SEG-2: Managing Risk: A Function of Loss SEG-3: Where Has All the Money Gone? SEG-4: There Are No Stupid Questions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVy63Ct2Azs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2864s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "How Howard Marks Thinks About Risk…And You Should Too" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/how-howard-marks-thinks-about-risk-and-you-should-too/ "Technical Analysis – 3 Bullish And Bearish Takes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility is Flashing a Caution Light" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZjtt_VxvqY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Millennial Earnings Season Begins" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0jagILd1Jc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

Markets sold off on Monday as part of a price compression process. Futures are pointing upward this morning, and markets need to hold levels today. We're on a sell signal and need to work off over bought positions. Earnings season will generate the next set of drivers as we head into the election. Mid-October thru the end of the month tends to be a bit weaker period. Meanwhile, volatility has been very quietly rising, which normally coincides with market correction. Three- to four- to five-percent corrections are very likely when it occurs as markets are going up. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZjtt_VxvqY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Volatility #2024Election #Employment #MarketVolatility #IsraelIranConflict #MiddleEast #CrudeOil #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

This week marks the start of earnings season for Q; the 2024 Election and the next FOMC Meeting also add volatility to markets. Friday's Jobs report came in stronger than expected (leaving one to wonder what kind of revision to the numbers is to come). Within the report, 700k gubernment workers were added. The S&P on Friday rallied on the employment news, but that also pretty much killed any chance of a 50bps rate cut by the Fed. Markets are now in a consolidation period, setting up for a corrective cycle a head of the 2024 Election. Lance explains the bullish and bearish takes of technical analysis: Knowing when to put capital to work, and when to take it off the table. What will the market do next? Reviewing market psychology: What's moving prices? When moving averages converge and diverge; how we do technical analysis, and what we do with the data. When there's bearish undertones in a bullish market; what to do with cash. Looking for opportunity. Gardening as a metaphor for investing. SEG-1: Starting Earnings Season SEG-2:Technical Analysis: Bullish and Bearish Approaches SEG-3: What Will Markets Do Next: Reviewing Market Psychology SEG-4: How We Do Technical Analysis Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP, w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khTKuRkNs48&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2078s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Technical Analysis – 3 Bullish And Bearish Takes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Preparing for a Pre-election Correction?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vagz34iRCnA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Importance of Trusts in Financial Planning" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbZKUPyG-K4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MillenlnialEarningsSeason #MarketBullishness #MarketBearishness #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketPsychology #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The S&P rallied nicely Friday on a strong employment report, and surprisingly so; that eliminates the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut in November. For us, if we're the Fed, and employment is that strong, we would cut rates at all. But that's just us. Markets rallied towards the top of the consolidation range. Today's opening looks to give up a chunk of Friday's gains, and as in previous consolidation patterns, it would appear markets are setting up for some type of corrective action within the next several weeks. (During election years, with the current set-up, markets typically get a correction before the election.) Markets typically rally about 4% during earnings season, but this time, markets have front-loaded the earnings season rally. Unless earnings are stellar and outlooks are strong, we could potentially see some choppiness and a correction to come. After the election, markets will position based on the winners, and prepare to rally into the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vagz34iRCnA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #2024Election #Employment #MarketVolatility #IsraelIranConflict #MiddleEast #CrudeOil #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

Market preview & Fed possiblities as jobs numbers are releasaed today; anecdotal evidence that small businesses are making more credit inquiries to banks: A prelude to more growth? The Longshoreman's strike is suspended with a proposed 65% pay increase; raises the question of value in the cost of a college degree. The marriage of blue collar jobss to AI will present new opportunities with rewarding pay. Jon & Matt discuss aspects of financial planning, risk management, and portfolio strategy. Estate planning as a risk management tool; pecking orders & durable powers of attorney. Chips & Salsa w Guacamole in waiting rooms? Yes! How to create a turst: Living trust vs testamentary trusts. The importance of proper account styling. How Medical POA and HIPAA work together; the importance of pecking-order. The other side of risk management: Protections afforded by trusts; how often should an estate plan be reviewed? Estate planning for foreign travel. What to do/how to plan for market volatility; the risks in rental properties. SEG-1: Market Preview & Fed Possiblities SEG-2: Career Training & Financial Planning SEG-3: Chips & Salsa Waiting Rooms & A Matter of Trust SEG-4: The Other Side of Risk Management Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP, w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbZKUPyG-K4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "A Crystal Ball Isn't Enough: The Importance Of Context" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crystal-ball-isnt-enough-the-importance-of-context/ "Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tax-cuts-an-examination-of-the-2017-tcja-impact/ "The "Everything Market" Could Last A While Longer" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-everything-market-could-last-a-while-longer/ "Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Sell Signal Imminent" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndsfKpn4lJU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When a Crystakl Ball Clouds Investor Judgement" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0jagILd1Jc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #DockWorkersStrike #CollegeDegree #FinancialPlanning #EstatePlanning #Trusts #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

A preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poor jobs numbers? Interestingly, QT is conspicuously absent from latest Fed discussion notes. Market Breadth continues to soar. You can't make this up: Hurricane (James T.) Kirk: this wlll be comedy gold! Market breadth in an everything market: Too much money chasing too few stocks. Lance & Michael discuss the problem of asset selection vs ETF's. SEG-1: Why a Weaker Jobs Report is Not Recessionary SEG-2: FEMA Rant & JOLTS Preview SEG-3: Hurricane Kirk & Asset Selections vs EFT's SEG-4: Taking the Crystal Ball Challenge RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0jagILd1Jc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "A Crystal Ball Isnt Enough: The Importance Of Context" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crystal-ball-isnt-enough-the-importance-of-context/ "Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tax-cuts-an-examination-of-the-2017-tcja-impact/ "The "Everything Market" Could Last A While Longer" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-everything-market-could-last-a-while-longer/ "Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Sell Signal Imminent" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndsfKpn4lJU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Shutdown, Strikes, & Volatility: Safeguarding Your Portfolio Now" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBW83seGZd8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2840s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JobsReport #JOLTSReport #FEMA #UkraineAid #IllegalImmigrants #HurricaneKirk #JamesTKirk #StarTrekWeather #CrystalBallChallenge #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #AssetSelection #ETF #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets sold down over 1%, but then rallied towards the end of the day with institutional buyers, which has been the markets' nature of late. There is still good buying demand. Markets have retested July's highs and bounced off in a classic retest of a breakout. The important thing would be to see if markets can hold that position, but futures this morning are a bit lower. If the markets cannot hold at this level, we're likely to get a little bit deeper correction in a test of either the 50- or 100-DMA. If markets close lower today, we'll trigger a MACD Sell Signal from a fairly high level, suggesting a corrective move is on the way. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndsfKpn4lJU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #IsraelIranConflict #MiddleEast #CrudeOil #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

A brief recap of the VP-debate; market futures are lower in search of a catalyst, and dislike the uncertainty preceeding an election. Markets have pulled backk thanks to investor exhaustion; Oil prices are on the rise amid escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, creating short-term risks until resolved. The Port Strike isn't 'the thing' that will trigger markets. Look for alternative shipping as opportunities in which to invest (Daggett makes Jimmy Hoffa look good). The Status of Social Security: What happens if SS benefits are cut? Financial planning should not include/depend upon SS. Another Roberts' Saga: Lance forgets to take out the trash. The inability of the government to pass a budget (not since Obama in office). Who really pays the most in taxes? (Article link below) Why the tax code needs changing (but beware the consequences). SEG-1: Markets Prepare to Pullback to Rally SEG-2: Israel/Iran & Port Strike - This Isn't 'The Thing' SEG-3: The Status of Social Security SEG-4: Who Really Pays the Most Taxes? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBW83seGZd8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2840s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tax-cuts-an-examination-of-the-2017-tcja-impact/ "The "Everything Market" Could Last A While Longer" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-everything-market-could-last-a-while-longer/ "Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility Rises as Correction Nears" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBW83seGZd8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How Long Can the 'Everything Market' Last?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXDkHBLrkRI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #IsraelIranWar #MiddleEast #CrudeOil #SocialSecurity #TaxCode #DockWorkersStrike #VPDebate #ConsumerConfidence #InvestorConfidence #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #Market

Markets sold off in a pullback of investor exhaustion, and the first crack in an upward trend, on the back of the Israel/Iran hostilities' acceleration. The 20-DMA will be the first test of support for markets, and could set markets up for a little bit bigger decline; the 100-DMA is the running support line presently. It is entirely possible markets could trade lower heading into the election, which would set things up nicely for a post-election rally into the end of the year. Crude Oil had a very big jump on Tuesday, spurred in part by Middle East tensions, but we think the commodity will run into resistance between $73 and $76/bbl. Any oil action is dependent upon what happens between Israel and Iran, and whether a rapid de-escalation can be achieved. Volatility has been slowly rising over the past couple of months, which is another, short-term indicator that a correction could be imminent. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBW83seGZd8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #IsraelIranConflict #MiddleEast #CrudeOil #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

It's a big news week: The Dock Workers' strike has begun, Israel is launching a land assault into Lebanon, and celebrity deaths (Pete Rose, Kris Kristofferson) top the news. And Jimmy Carter turns 100. Meanwhile, Q3 Earnings Season commences after three very strong quarters of business in what has been one the of the best presidential years since the 1950's. A correction at this point would be healthy for markets. We think there will be a 3- to 5% correction before elections, creating room for markets to rally into year's end. Lance's rant on the Coffee Pod scam, and the SEC doesn't have far to look (Congress!) for insider trading. Lance and Jon look at market performance, global money flows, and observe the 'everything market.' Commentary on potential disruption by dock workers' strike. YouTube likes & paywalls; there are two more Fed meetings in 2024; how many rate cuts to come? For inestors in search of dividend growth, the challenges are in an 'everything market:' there must be buyers AND sellers. No more T-bil & chill. Why "getting back to even" is a investor trap. SEG-1: Dock Workers' Strike & Earnings Season Begin SEG-2a: Coffee Rant & Insider Trading SEG-2b: How Long Can the Everything Market Last? SEG-3: How Big a Deal Will the Port Strike Be? SEG-4: Two More Fed Meetings to Go: How Many Cuts? RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXDkHBLrkRI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The "Everything Market" Could Last A While Longer" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-everything-market-could-last-a-while-longer/ "Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Get Ready for Earnings Season Tomorrow" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2NaQU4oXC0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=3s ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Micro-Retirement Right for You?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjPwPSI_rpI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EverythingMarket #DockWorkersStrike #ConsumerConfidence #InvestorConfidence #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets ended the month of September trading in negative territory for much of the day. Institutional end-of-the-quarter buying at the end of the day boosted stocks to close higher on the day. On a short term basis markets are functionally extended. We're now in the space where markets gain and then stall, and then gain and then stall, again. Markets are now well-deviated from their 100-DMA. But moving averages are like gravity, and will pull prices back in line. Markets are not on a sell signal yet, but we expect to see one sooner than later. It would not be surprising to see a bit of a correction in the next few weeks, particularly before the election, which would set up markets for a rally into the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fdsNjPN3gY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #SellSignal #BuySignal #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

The last day of September brings the end of the month, end of the quarter, and a preview of the next round of corporate earnings. So far, no evidence of recession is appearing. Regardless of your investment thesis, money flow still matters most, and there's lots of money flowing into markets. China is most over-bought in years, thanks to Chinese government stimulus. Earnings outlooks will matter going forward. Oil prices are getting thrashed, with lots of short-selling over the last five weeks. Lance shares dog tales of Gunner & Sniper. With massive money inflows, liquidity is primary market driver. Lance discusses the components of our Greed/Fear Index; markets' pricing is based on earnings. The two measures of consumer confidence; The Conference Board and U. of Michigan; Consumer confidence and jobs vs stock prices. Expectations less Current Conditions: That's the dichotomy. Improving Market Breadth & Money Flows; when everyone is in the market, money chases money; sellers live higher, buyers live lower. SEG-1: Earnings Season Begins Tomorrow SEG-2a: Gunner & Sniper Dog Tales SEG-2b: Money Inflows Continue: Liquidity is Main Market Driver SEG-3: Two Measures of Consumer Confidence SEG-4: Improving Market Breadth & Money Flows RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8qRbIonRtU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Get Ready for Earnings Season Tomorrow" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2NaQU4oXC0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=3s ------- Our previous show is here: "Is Micro-Retirement Right for You?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjPwPSI_rpI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #ConsumerConfidence #InvestorConfidence #ConfidenceDichotomy #MicroRetirement #SocialSecurity #MarketLiquidity #RecessionFears #RateCuts #PortfolioManagement #FedRateCut2024 #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #DiversificationOfAccounts #RothIRA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Earnings season begins tomorrow, and the stock buyback window closes until the end of October. There's really nothing wrong with the markets following August's correction. Markets are getting very over bought relative to the 20- and 50-DMA, with decent divergences from the moving averages. And any time you see such divergence away from the daily and weekly moving averages, it is inevitable that things will correct. If earnings come in strong, that will help; but outlooks are what will matter most: What are companies thinking about the future? There is a close corellation between the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 and in the underlying, year-over-year change in earnings. If companies ratchet up their earnings outlooks, that will provide a lift to markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2NaQU4oXC0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EarningsSeason #EarningsOutlooks #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

Jonthan & Jonathan stand in for Danny & Rich with a preview of today's PCE report, and inklings of dissent within the Fed on the latest rate cut. The handwriting is on the wall for Savers; time to reassess strategies as interest rates fall. Ho will the election outcomes affect your financial planning? Worst-case scenario: a contested election (the markets hate uncertainty). With the ebb and flow of markets, we make adjustments on the fly, not per formula. Interest Rates & Real Estate: As rates come downm, time to buy or refinance? How Mortgage Rates and Fed Rates behave; patience is a virtue. Has the average income needed to buy a house come down? The concerpt of micro-retirement: Is it a good idea from a financial planning aspect? Younger vs older generation; consequences of micro-retirement (Brent reveals his nano-retirement). The importance of diversification of accounts; Roths & tax free withdrawals. Our end-of-year checklist: Tax planning and Roth conversions. Dealing with RMD's (required minimum distribution) and QCD's (qualified charitable donation). SEG-1: PCE Preview & Dissent at the Fed SEG-2: Interest Rates & Real Estate: Is the timing right? SEG-3: Is Micro-Retirement Right for You? SEG-4: The Importance of Diversification of Accounts Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisors, Jonathan Penn, CFP, and #Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjPwPSI_rpI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/agency-reits-for-a-bull-steepener/ "50 Basis Point Rate Cut – A Review And Outlook" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/50-basis-point-rate-cut-a-review-and-outlook/ "Analysis Of The Market As The Fed Cuts Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Flow Trumps Thesis" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qzcif6GGmc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=1s ------- Our previous show is here: "Bull Steepener Alert: How Agency REITs Can Supercharge Your Portfolio" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGbMCOPuPGI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MicroRetirement #SocialSecurity #MarketLiquidity #RecessionFears #RateCuts #PortfolioManagement #FedRateCut2024 #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #DiversificationOfAccounts #RothIRA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Plenty of things to move markets this week, including economic numbers and multiple Fed members' commentaries on why they did what they did last week. Are there more cuts to come? Millennial Earnings Season and no buy backs will impact markets soon. Is the AI trade dead? Don't count on it. Micron turned in a strong earnings report, and the CIA's own AI investments(?) are doing verrry well. Markets' short term Cup & Handle formation confirmed Wednesday; this is now the second-biggest year for equities inflows since 2014. However, there are negative divergences from market trends indicating the current upward trajectory may be nearing an end. The Fed's rate cut was a "normalization" cut; there are disturbing signs in the labor market. Just like real estate's "location, location, location" mantra, the market is all about "liquidity, liquidity, liquidity." There is a large divergence between markets and sentiment. Lance explains what Red Robin is (and why he's a VIP there); Rate cuts and bond yields: why they track inflation. Downward revisions to GDP will help bond yields; why paying attention to pricing (market psychology) is important; part of the cycle. Lance and Michael talk Technical Analysis and adhering to the fundamentals helps build investor discipline. What happens when too much money is chasing too few stocks. PCE news will help determine direction of the market. Yield curves and Agency REITs during steepening. SEG-1: Is the AI Trade Dead? Not hardly SEG-2: This Was the "Normalization Cut" By the Fed SEG-3: Red Robin VIP, Rate Cuts, & Bond Yields SEG-4: Why Technical Analysis Doesn't Work for Everyone...but could Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGbMCOPuPGI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/agency-reits-for-a-bull-steepener/ "50 Basis Point Rate Cut – A Review And Outlook" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/50-basis-point-rate-cut-a-review-and-outlook/ "Analysis Of The Market As The Fed Cuts Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Flow Trumps Thesis" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qzcif6GGmc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=1s ------- Our previous show is here: "Rate Cuts & Recession Fears: Will Politics Drive Your Portfolio Off a Cliff?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KufUmig7vX8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #AgencyREIT #MarketLiquidity #NormalizationCut #RecessionFears #RateCuts #PortfolioManagement #FedRateCut2024 #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The markets; short term "Cup & Handle" formation was confirmed on Wednesday, which is a technical expression of markets' bullishness. Such usually leads to higher stock prices, leading analysts to predict S&P 6,000 in 2025. This year has seen the second-largest equity inflows since 2014. Foreign inflows to U.S. stocks have been "ginormous." Regardless of your ideas about the markets and investing, flows trump thesis. Every time. But...a longer term analysis reveals an interesting, negative divergence in relative strength and market momentum. These may be indicators of markets getting closer to the end of this move towards 6,000. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qzcif6GGmc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MoneyFlow #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #InvestingThesis #Money #Investing

Could the S&P hit 6,000 by the end of the year? Some prognosticators are saying so, hyped on exuberance, but consumer confidence is suggesting otherwise, and the foreshadowing is not great for the White House incumbent. Consumer spending & sentiment is incongruent with market expectations. Markets remain bullish, and another "Cup & Handle" formation has appeared, suggesting higher market prices in 2025. Markets, however, are extremely deviated, which is unsustainable, and correction is inevitable. Lance reviews "peak attractiveness" among the sexes and adult dating. The Fed's rate cut occur amid economic dichotomy; markets so SO exuberant, yet Conference Board confidence surveys reflect a different mood, with a drop in the Present Situation Index. Lance relates a "drive-by" hello on the jogging trail; this show is about osmosis; Lance is kind of a big deal. Consumer confidence as the economy plays out; there will be a correction of significance eventually. Expecations for economic growth vs oil price signalling slower economy in 2025. Would chat participants behave in a Chat Q & A Show (results were 51-49% positive). Lance reviews the technical indicators used in our analysis; simplest is best. Market investing is a study in psychology. SEG-1: S&P 6000 by End of the Year? SEG-2: Fed Rate Cuts Amid Economic Dichotomy SEG-3a: Drive-by's and Osmosis SEG-3b: Consumer Confidence Falters SEG-4: The Technical Indicators We Use Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KufUmig7vX8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "50 Basis Point Rate Cut – A Review And Outlook" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/50-basis-point-rate-cut-a-review-and-outlook/ "Analysis Of The Market As The Fed Cuts Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Cup & Handle Runneth Over? " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Btnzvlhl1nQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Who Benefits Most from the Latest Fed Rate Cut?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIQLxafhNp8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FedRateCut2024 #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets are pretty bullish, short term: Technically speaking, last year's "Cup & Handle" formation suggested markets would go higher this year, which is exactly what happened. That same formation has repeated itself this year, and what we're looking for at this point is a retest of the 20-DMA to confirm the pattern's formation (and inferrence of higher market performance in 2025). Meanwhile, stocks have become very over bought, with investors become very confident in their performance. However, there is a larger concern: Historicaly, whenever markets have been three standard deviations above long term moving averages on a monthly basis, they have not resolved themselve kindly in that process. These extensions are not sustainable, long term. A correction of some sort is eventually coming. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Btnzvlhl1nQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Oil prices conitnue to weaken in the face of optimism from analysts now forecasting an 18% gain in earnings in 2025. One of them is wrong. Lance and Jonathan discuss market clarity, Fed rate cuts, and the impact on the markets. Markets trade on the effective Fed rates; what's the sweet spot among market sectors when rates are coming down? Lance reviews Gold behaviors during rate cutting cycles; big surges in Gold lead to longer-term bases. Why the Math of Loss matters; corrections are really no big deal. The wisdom of managing protfolio risk along the way; don't let the fear of taxes cost you money. Would Mrs. Roberts do a podcast? Unicorns, Sasquatch, Big Foot, & Flat-earther's: Putting money in S&P funds for 40-years; time is on your side when you're young. A discussion of Recession expectations (sooner or later). SEG-1: Oil Prices Belie a Weakening Economy SEG-2: What's the Sweet Spot During Rate Cuts? SEG-3: Gold Behavior and the Math of Loss SEG-4a: Mrs. Roberts' Podcast SEG-4b: Unicorns, Sasquatch & Bigfoot - Internet Narratives vs Investing Reality Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIQLxafhNp8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "50 Basis Point Rate Cut – A Review And Outlook" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/50-basis-point-rate-cut-a-review-and-outlook/ "Analysis Of The Market As The Fed Cuts Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil price dip - a signal of economic weakness?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQg8HYT2TUA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will This Week's Data Support Fed Rationale for Cutting Rates?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LV90rMRapA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FedRateCut2024 #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #FedRateCutImpact #FinancialWinners #InterestRateBenefits #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Oil prices have rallied and are becoming over bought, but remain weak overall. This decline in oil prices is undermining some of the more exuberant outlooks for earnings, going into the fourth quarter, and certainly opinions about growth in 2025 (which some analysts are calling for 18% earnings growth next year!) So expectations that things are going to kick off to the moon as the Fed lowers rates may be a little too optimistic with one of the basic commodities, oil, not showing the relative strength you would want to see in a "much improving" economy. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQg8HYT2TUA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #OilPrices #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

We're entering the last-half of September, which is typically the weaker period of an already, traditionally weak month in the markets. Earnings seasons is about to beging, and Q3 estimates have already been slashed; this isn't 1995, though: Is the Fed's rationaled for cutting raates going to be validated by this week's economic data? Markets ended slightly lower on Friday, but still holding onto breakout level. Lance relate's Mrs. Robert's most recent holiday decor disappointment, and announces news substack channel, @lanceroberts. Shocker: The Washington Post debunks climate change data. Lance's daughter turns 18, wants to be a veterinarian; he can taste a rate cut coming. What's the Fed's rationale for it's rate cut? Charts & a history of rate cuts and reacitons. This time is NOT like last time; outcomes tend to be all the same; the negative outcomes from rate cuts. The importance if portfolio risk management; The Fed cannot save us from a bear market. SEG-1: Can Markets Hold at Breakout Levels? SEG-2a: Mrs. Roberts' Holiday Deco SEG-2b: WaPo Debunks Climate Change Data SEG-3a: Lance is Due for a Rate Cut SEG-3b: What is Rationale for Fed Rate Cut? SEG-4: This Time is NOT Like the Last Time - Outcomes are always the same Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LV90rMRapA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Analysis Of The Market As The Fed Cuts Rates" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Selloff Still Likely Ahead of Elections " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZxBvl78jNI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Fed Rate Shock - How the Latest Cut Could Ignite or Crash Your Investments" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSoQ7tg1Xms&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FedRateCut2024 #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #ShootinCandle #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets fluttered on Friday, ending right where they started. An unusually large options expiration cluster added volatility. There were two bullish standouts: Markets held on to the breakout level established on Thursday, and, while markets are still over bought, a buy signal is still in place. However, upside may be limited. Markets will next begin to adjust expectations as they determine who the most likely winner will be in the presidential election, and whose policies will impact markets. For now, be patient, and the market will tell us what to do next. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZxBvl78jNI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #ShootinCandle #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Was the Fed's 50bps rate cut a "calibration?' We are still not at the Feds target for unemployment; the Fed's action was in response to conditions, not to help anyone politically. What will the Fed do next? The 50bps cut does nothing to help consumers. What is the neutral, real interest rate, now? Why a Fed rate cut is really bad news. How now to fund your goals: Time to trim exposure and move to cash, awaiting opportunities. Americans' pay has not recovered from inflation, requiring a "recalibration" of financial plans to adjust for realities. Two worst areas of inflation: Groceries & Insurance; Rich & Danny discuss Blue Bell ice cream price inflation, and Rich delivers another life lesson from Grandma Rosso. SEG-1: The Fed's Latest Rate Cut is a "Recalibration" SEG-2: Why a 50bps Drop Offers no Relief for Consumers SEG-3: Why Your Pay Has Not Fully Recovered From Inflation SEG-4: Ice Cream Inflation & Lessons from Grandma Rosso Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSoQ7tg1Xms&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trump Or Harris: Corporate Tax Winners And Losers" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/trump-or-harris-corporate-tax-winners-and-losers/ "Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/momentum-investing-gives-you-an-edge-until-it-doesnt/ "Conviction (Or How To Lose A Lot Of Money In Investing)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/conviction-or-how-to-lose-a-lot-of-money-in-investing/ "Market Risks We Are Watching" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Hold on to Breakout?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of34bE1oBm4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: What Does the Fed's 50-bps Rate Cut Mean for Your Money? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQWDEg-aQnI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=973s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FedRateCut2024 #InvestmentImpact #StockMarketVolatility #EconomicForecast #InterestRateShock #PortfolioStrategy #FederalReservePolicy #InflationAndInvestments #BondMarket2024 #FedRateChange #BlueBellIcecream #BlueBellMoment #Money #InvestingAdvice

The markets were right: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percent on Wednesday, and markets initially climbed, then sold off to end negative for the day. But after pondering overnight, market futures indicated a strong start to Thursday's trading day. If markets rally and hold through Friday, they will be set to hit all time highs, once again. Will we see rotation into other sectors as a by product? The Fed is trying to position rates where they should be, given the current economic conditions. All Labor data now become very important. With lower rates, will there be a rash of corporate debt refinancing? (This rate cut is not likely to affect mortgage or consumer lending debt, yet. Will lower rates spark more activity, and thus become inflationary? Is the Fed rate cut good for stocks? Lance and Michael look at the history and analysis of corrections; it's easy to find reasons to NOT invest. Bear Markets & Corrections were more frequent prior to the 1990's. The dirty Truth: The Fed has become the defacto manager of the US Economy. What will other Central Banks do next? Are we entering a Global Easing Cycle? (Lance relates his Missus has been working a lot, losing sleep, and is ill-tempered this week; also comments about clocks and studio tchotchkies.) Markets look to open strong; what does the underlying data say? There is a sharp contraction in Q3 earnings estimates. Can markets today sustain the breakout? Bond yields are still too high for this economy. SEG-1: Markets Were Right About Fed's Rate Cut SEG-2: What the Fed's 50-bps Rate Cut Means SEG-3: Is the Fed Rate Cut Good for Stocks? SEG-4a: Mrs. Roberts is Cranky & Studio Stuff SEG-4b: What Does the Underlying Data Say About the Economy? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQWDEg-aQnI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=973s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trump Or Harris: Corporate Tax Winners And Losers" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/trump-or-harris-corporate-tax-winners-and-losers/ "Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/momentum-investing-gives-you-an-edge-until-it-doesnt/ "Conviction (Or How To Lose A Lot Of Money In Investing)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/conviction-or-how-to-lose-a-lot-of-money-in-investing/ "Market Risks We Are Watching" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Hold on to Breakout?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of34bE1oBm4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Fed Rate Decision 2024: Boom or Bust for Your Investments?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTRfDmSCQa4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FedRateDecision #StockMarketUpdate #InflationImpact #InvestmentStrategy #EconomicOutlook #PortfolioManagement #InterestRates #FinancialPlanning #RecessionWatch #BondMarket#Markets #Money #Investing

Markets put in a "shooting candle" formation following yesterday's Fed rate cut by 50-bps. Markets sold off to end negatively, slept on the news overnight, and this morning look to start very strong. If markets can rally, breakout, and hold onto that breakout thru Friday, then investors should see markets move on to all time highs again. Bond Yields reversed, but there is still down side risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of34bE1oBm4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MarketRally #MarketBreakout #ShootinCandle #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedRateCut #BondYields #YieldCurveInversion #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

It's Fed Day: The big question will be answered this afternoon, 'How much the cut?' Huge bets on 50-bp rate cut; will a quarter-point cut disappoint? Meanwhile, Retail Sales continue to weaken, but August numbers were better than expected. There is no apparent data to support a 50-bp rate cut. There is a credit debt wall coming; extreme market optimism is a risk. It's make-or-break time for the S&P 500; NASDAQ not performing as well, and the rest of the market is playing catch-up. Lance notes the AI effect on Utilities and Real Estate, formerly among most-hated sectors. Lance & Danny discuss what date the Fed is looking at, and whether recession is near, per Jeff Gundlach's claims; will the Fed cut rates and wait & see? Exploding pagers and Mrs. Roberts stories; three funds to buy before the Fed cuts rates. What to do with cash? What if rates fall less than expected? (When do you need the funds?) You cannot fight technicals. Potential Election Outcomes and tax policy, which is inflationary. Good policy results in economic growth by allowing more money for consumers to spend; taxing the rich results in the rich moving their money away; eventually, consumers pay all taxes. SEG-1: Fed Day: How Much the Rate Cut? SEG-2: What is the Fed Looking At? SEG-3a: Exploding Pagers & Mrs. Roberts SEG-3b: Three Funds to Own Before Fed Rate Cuts SEG-4: Election Outcomes & Tax Policy Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTRfDmSCQa4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/momentum-investing-gives-you-an-edge-until-it-doesnt/ "Conviction (Or How To Lose A Lot Of Money In Investing)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/conviction-or-how-to-lose-a-lot-of-money-in-investing/ "Market Risks We Are Watching" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Hated Sectors Are the Most Desirable" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HB2qAVUQA4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge...Until it Doesn't" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3notXqcWLsY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FedRateDecision #InvestmentOutlook #MarketVolatility #FedDecision2024 #InflationOutlook #StockMarketUpdate #InvestmentInsights #MarketAnalysis #RecessionFears #FinancialPlanning #EconomicTrends #PortfolioStrategy #InterestRateHikes #Treasuries #Dollar #Gold #Markets #Money #Investing

The S&P 500 is on a buy signal, not yet over bought, and flirting with all-time highs. It could set another all-time high, or establish significant resistance if markets fail following today's Fed rate announcement. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ is not performing nearly as well. The rest of the market has been playing catch-up, and the S&P Equal Weight index has become over bought, thanks to rises in utilities and real estate--sectors previously eschewed by investors. Seems everyone woke up with the AI effect, and utilities have had a huge run up since July. Real Estate has similarly experienced a huge surge. Suddenly, the most-hated sectors are now the most-desirable, underscoring what we've always said: When something is most-hated, that's the time to look at it as an investment. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HB2qAVUQA4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #MostHatedSectors #MostDesirableSectors #NASDAQ #SPEqualWeight #Utilities #RealEstate #AI #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, to be concluded with the latest interest rate announcement. Markets' expectations are for a half-percent cut; could a quarter-percent cut create disappointment on Wall Street? Microsoft announces and increase in its dividend payment (very different from a stock buy back). Kamala Harris' plans to raise taxes on corporations is in fact an crease in taxes on consumers; corporations are tax collectors for the government. Markets' rally in anticipation of Fed day tomorrow. The stock buyback window begins to close today ahead of the next earnings season, removing some of the lift to markets. Lance and Jonathan discuss the pro's an con's of momentum investing (with charts); answers to chatroom and email questions on purchasing ETF's and Treasuries, and the uniquely Texan phrase, going "whole hog." Lance defends comments on the Value of the Dollar vs purchasing power of the dollar (with charts), referenced to article on "Conviction" (link is found below). Investing in Gold, pro's and con's, doesn't have to be an all-or-none proposition. SEG-1: Fed Rate Cut Decision Expectations SEG-2: Momentum Investing Works on the Way Up... SEG-3: ETF Purchasing Philosophy & Post-Fed Treasuries SEG-4: The Value of the Dollar vs Purchasing Power Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3notXqcWLsY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/momentum-investing-gives-you-an-edge-until-it-doesnt/ "Conviction (Or How To Lose A Lot Of Money In Investing)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/conviction-or-how-to-lose-a-lot-of-money-in-investing/ "Market Risks We Are Watching" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Prep for Fed Day" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6Lk71KYwyw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Market Risks We Are Watching" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1-uDC1Ue8A&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MomentumInvesting #FedDecision2024 #InflationOutlook #StockMarketUpdate #InvestmentInsights #MarketAnalysis #RecessionFears #FinancialPlanning #EconomicTrends #PortfolioStrategy #InterestRateHikes #Treasuries #Dollar #Gold #Markets #Money #Investing

Tomorrow is The Big Day for markets as the Fed makes known its intentions for interest rates. Markets have been rallying nicely in anticipation; yesterday, pushing up to all-time highs and finishing positive. Markets remain in a consolidation range, and tomorrow's Fed decision will determine the markets' direction. Note that today begins the closure of the stock buyback window, removing an element of "lift" from markets. With the next earnings season just two weeks away, that buying power will begin to fade. Meanwhile, a buy signal remains in place with markets at very high levels, so there could still be some upside to come, although somewhat limited. This is still a good time to trim risk from portfolios. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6Lk71KYwyw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #PortfolioRisk #YenCarryTrade #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

It's Fed week, and many are predicting a 60% chance the FOMC will drop rates by a half percent; elections are drawing nearer: How will markets behave? (Why the polls are never right) Markets' 4% loss two weeks ago followed by 4% recovery last week; reversal days tend to mark bottoms, but not always. Last weeks' reversal was very bullish, but that doesn't mean we cannot have another correction. One risk is oil prices. XLE is over sold. The three risks we're watching include oil; discussion on the true meaning of inflation. Prices vs rate of change are two different things. The linkage of the economy to oil prices. Lance describes the Roberts' Roomba behavior. Hilarity ensues. Inflation's effects on small businesses, per the NFIB Small Business Survey, a look at Sales Expectations vs actual sales. A brief explanation of our Radio commercials; the impact on earnings by economic activity. Resume Builder survey: Why Gen-Z are most difficult to work with. SEG-1: Fed Week & Oil Price Clues SEG-2: Three Risks We're Paying Attention To, Pt-1 SEG-3a: The Roberts' Roombas SEG-3b: Risks We're Paying Attention to, Pt-2 SEG-4a: Why We Play Commercials SEG-4b: Risks We're Paying Attention To, Pt-3 SEG-4c: Why Gen-Z is Difficult to Work With Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1-uDC1Ue8A&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Risks We Are Watching" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil Prices Belie Economic Weakness" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVKUNA8mTG0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Create a Retirement Blueprint" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDHDI0ulqcc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestmentTrends #StockMarket2024 #FinancialInsights #PortfolioManagement #MarketForecast #RecessionWarning #InterestRateHikes #WealthBuilding #MarketStrategy #EconomicAnalysis #FedPolicyUpdate #StockMarketTrends #EconomicRecession #InflationRisk #InvestmentAdvice #FinancialMarkets #FederalReserveOutlook #Markets #Money #Investing

Markets saw a 4% decline week before last; last week, markets recovered by 4% in anticipation of what the Fed is going to do this week. Did that big reversal day two weeks ago mark a market bottom? Not necessarily, because there are plenty of examples where such has occurred at market peaks. There is no doubt the recent reversal was bullish, and there is no real reason to be overly bearish at this point. However, risks remain, and one of them is in Oil Prices, which have continued to weaken. Despite a bounce following a sharp sell off, the trend in oil prices remains weak. That does not suggest much relative strength. There is a high correlation between the direction and trend of oil prices with economic activity. The Energy ETF, XLE, which also tracks oil prices very closely, is very oversold, and traders' positioning is very weak on oil stocks. It wouldn't be surprising to see a rotation into energy stocks leading up to the election, especially if it appears a Trump return to the White House is imminent. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVKUNA8mTG0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #OilPrices #EnergyETF #XLE #2024Election #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Ratliff, but first a review of the markets: It's all about the Fed, and the grate debate is about rate. How much will they cut, and how many times? Watch for elevated volatility heading into the election; a divided-congress yields the best environment for markets. Who will have the best policies for the economy? What will your retirement look like? Commonalities vs net worth differences among peers; the need to set your own parameters. The importance of having paid-off debt. Components of a Retirement Blueprint: Needs, Wants, Wishes. "The New Retirement Mentality," by Mitch Anthony; dealing with distribution mode in retirement: Reality. Danny and Rich share clients' tales on over-spending in retirement. What will you do in retirement? The Return on Life equation (shopping for books in antique stores); how you know 'it's time to retire.' The Roth Conversion conversation; what does life look like, post-retirement? SEG-1: It's All About the Fed: Debate on the rate SEG-2: The Retirement Blueprint: What will yours look like? SEG-3: The New Retirement Mentality SEG-4: The Retirement Self-assessment: What will you do? Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDHDI0ulqcc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Cash Cow Clues: Can Dividend Yields Forecast Interest Rates?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/cash-cow-clues-can-dividend-yields-forecast-interest-rates/ "S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-a-bullish-and-bearish-analysis/ "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Test Resistance" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3NtgCIW20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Did Inflation Change the Fed's Outlook?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn_rLnZURQ8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Retirement #RetirementBlueprint #RetirementMentality #RothConversion #ReturnOnLifeEquation #CPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #OilPrices #GovernmentSpending #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #InflationTrends #EconomicSlowdown #trading #RecessionRisks #InvestmentStrategies #StockBuybacks #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #Policy #Taxes #Markets #Money #Investing

As we went to air this morning, Space-X astronauts are "space-walking," testing new spacesuits; is Elon Musk the real-live equivalent of Tony Stark? CPI prints cooler--but core CPI was hotter than expected. MEanwhile the NFIB Survey (showing conservative bent) shows increases in confidence wiped out as Harris capmaigns; policy matters. Markets Big Reversal on Nvidia commentary about AI chip demand; the news boosted markets to a 2.5% gain. CPI is a hot mess: Inflation is different for everyone; the important question is how CPI will affect markets. Lance and Michael discuss how CPI is calculated; what if shelter costs do not lag and remain elevated? The impact of healthcare costs and energy on CPI; oil price corellation with inflation. The Adobe Digital Price Index compares online shopping price trends. Volatility ETF's: Why don't the wrk very well? Going long with low volatility/shorting on high volatility; how we gambled and missed buy one day. Why Volatility ETF's are like Thanksgiving turkeys. Charting policy differences between Harris vs Trump campaigns. Tariffs & Taxes analysis: How do they affect productivity? Higher taxes on a smaller pie, or lower taxes on a bigger pie? Taxes remove capital from the market place, which could otherwise be spent on innovation & productivity. SEG-1: Markets' Big Reversal Day SEG-2: CPI is a Hot Mess SEG-3: Volatility ETF's: Why don't they work well? SEG-4: Tariffs, Taxes, & Policy Analysis Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn_rLnZURQ8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Cash Cow Clues: Can Dividend Yields Forecast Interest Rates?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/cash-cow-clues-can-dividend-yields-forecast-interest-rates/ "S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-a-bullish-and-bearish-analysis/ "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Test Resistance" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3NtgCIW20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What's Really Behind Stock Market Volatility" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D5D2sxuJwQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Nvidia #Magnificent7 #SpaceX #SpaceWalk #CPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #OilPrices #GovernmentSpending #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #InflationTrends #EconomicSlowdown #trading #RecessionRisks #InvestmentStrategies #StockBuybacks #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #Policy #Taxes #Tariffs #Innovation #Productivity #JobsReport #Employment #Technology #Markets #Money #Investing

Markets had a big reversal day Wednesday: Core CPI was hotter than expected, and markets sold off about 1.5%. And at about the time markets were kissing the 100-DNA, Nvidia's CEO told a Goldman conference his company cannot keep up with AI chips demand. The Mag-7 came roaring back to drive markets up 1%, resulting in a 2.5% gain from the low. Markets are now testing resistance at the 20-DMA, and if successful, will rocket upward to new, all-time highs. Remain cautious for now and manage risk. Technically, the market is improving. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3NtgCIW20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Nvidia #AI #Magnificent7 #FederalReserve #CPI #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #Bonds #Treasuries #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Today marks the 23rd anniversary of the World Trade Center attacks; it's Inflation Day and post-Debate day. Market volatility tends to increase prior to Presidential elections; why policy matters. CPI is expected to show a .2% increase (it's ALWAYS expected at .2%!) Oil prices are a function of supply & demand. CPI will most impact markets today, and factor into the Fed's rate decision next week. Volatility is the big market driver. What inflation is telling us about the economy; why falling inflation is not good for earnings. How companies are cutting wages (without cutting wages); Danny rants on the high cost of hotel coffee. A critique of government spending, and why "The Inflation Reduction Act" was anything but; a look at sector-based bankruptcies and the Solar Energy industry. Stop investing in companies you know nothing about. Private investors and private money are more efficient than government investments: The Day Care conundrum. A word or two on the presidential debate; 6 income alternatives for falling rate environment; demand notes; Risk annuities; closed-end funds. At what point should you liquidate bonds? SEG-1: Markets Increase Volatility Pre-Election SEG-2: What Inflation is Telling Us About the Economy SEG-3: Why "The Inflation Reduction Act" is Mis-labelled SEG-4: Income Alternatives as Rates Fall Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D5D2sxuJwQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-a-bullish-and-bearish-analysis/ "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "CPI: Will or Won't the Fed Cut Rates?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iArd3ktAw90&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Five Actions You Can Take to Minimize Risk" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDSbAB_oXtc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #PresidentialDebate #InflationReductionAct #OilPrices #GovernmentSpending #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #InflationTrends #EconomicSlowdown #trading #RecessionRisks #InvestmentStrategies #BearMarket #PortfolioManagement #FinancialPlanning #StockBuybacks #RayKurzwell #TheAgeofSpiritualMachines #JobsReport #Employment #Technology #Markets #Money #Investing

CPI will have an impact on the markets, as it feeds into the answer to the question, 'Will or won't the Fed cut rates this month?' Markets on Tuesday rallied right up to the 50-DMA; futures are subdued this morning, suggesting an initial test of resistance right at the 50-DMA. If that fails, there will be more pressure to the downside. Volatility is the big driver of the markets; there has been a little pickup in volatility during this most recent correction, but not to a great degree; the VIX is currently trading at around 19. The real challenge is positioning ahead of the Fed's rate decision. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iArd3ktAw90&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #CPI #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #Bonds #Treasuries #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting and rate drop predictions; 2-yr Treasury yields are reflective of rate expectations. Forward earnings revisions continue to ratchet downward; markets must reprice on expectations, impacting performance. Monday's market rally was a disappointment; MACD sell signal is still in place. There are still barriers and resistance in the way of markets moving higher. This is not a good time to buy bonds. Lance and Jon look at what happens to stocks when a company is added to the S&P 500; why you should never track to an index: They're not reality. Wall Street wants you perpetually upset because money movement and emotions create fees. Indexes do not pay fees or taxes. Five steps you can take to mitigate portfolio risk. Lance and Jon answer e-mail query about portfolio management and reasonable expectations: Can you create high yields in a low interest rate environment? SEG-1: Markets' Rally Disappoints SEG-2A: What Happens When Stock is Added to the S&P 500 SEG-2B: Five Steps You Can Take to Mitigate Portfolio Risk SEG-3: E-mail Q&A: Realistic Goals of Portfolio Management SEG-4: Why Financial Planning is All a Big Guess Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDSbAB_oXtc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-a-bullish-and-bearish-analysis/ "Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/ "Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Rally Disappoints" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RnurWaljp8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "A Rough Start to September" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtRVT0cqwNg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket2024 #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #InflationTrends #EconomicSlowdown #trading #RecessionRisks #InvestmentStrategies #BearMarket #PortfolioManagement #FinancialPlanning #StockBuybacks #RayKurzwell #TheAgeofSpiritualMachines #JobsReport #Employment #Technology #Markets #Money #Investing

Markets generated a rather disappointing rally on Monday, giving up about half of its gains by the end of the day. The good news: Markets closed positive, bounced off the 100-DMA, and were over-sold on a relative strength basis. That initial bounce off support indicated markets are clearly not out of the woods yet, still on a sell signal, indicating weaker prices are still ahead. This will suppress any positive action until the sell signal can be worked off. Markets initially failed at resistance at the 50-DMA. If markets cannot hold support at the 100-DMA, the next level downward will be at the August lows at the 200-DMA. We are currently in the mode of managing risk rather than trying to gain exposure in the markets. Unfortunately, no decent set up in Bonds has yet occurred, and those issues remain extremely over-bought; there's no opportunity now to increase exposure in bonds: It's difficult to add bonds to a portfolio now. If you own them, hang onto them. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RnurWaljp8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketBounce #MarketRisk #Overbought #MarketBullishness #MarketVolatility #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #Bonds #Treasuries #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing