The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

2023 has started off with a fairly subdued international news cycle... but the world hasn't stopped turning. So, what's lurking beneath the surface? What are we missing (besides Kevin McCarthy's humiliation at the hands of his own party)?Tune in to hear the latest updates on everything going on outside of our little bubble - across Europe, Asia, Latin America and the food markets!Timestamps:0:00-7:26 – Europe7:26-18:53 – Japan18:53 – 23:06 – China23:06 – 36:15 – Copper36:15 – 50:45 – Soybeans50:45 – end – Latin American/MexicoMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)Cognitive Investments

What does the immediate future of China look like?Is China a threat to the US dominance of markets and military?John Minnich and Jacob Shapiro talk about the future of the PRC, how China and the US stack up against one another in a multi-polar world, China's struggles in the tech industry, and their ever-looming presence in neighboring countries. John Minnich is a PhD candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics at MITTimestamps:1:40-10:50 – China 202310:50 - 27:10 – Is China a threat to the U.S.?27:10 – 35:02 – China Chips/AI35:02-49:22 – Chinese technology transfer policy49:22 – end – South Korea? Taiwan? Japan?Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

What's coming for 2023? Obviously, we can't predict the future - but we can make some educated guesses about what's to come. Are we moving towards a unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar global system? Global monetary policy is moving in some novel (yet still stale) directions, globalization is evolving as geopolitics shapes international relations, and somehow Russia is still grinding away at Ukraine. Tune in for some interesting surprisesTimestamps:0:00-4:43 – Intro4:43 - 17:26 – The Bank of Japan’s surprise17:26-end – Looking back at 2022 and a head 2023Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Kamran rejoins the show without much optimism to offer – for Iran, for Pakistan, or for much of the Muslim world. Central Asia, however, might be the silver lining.Timestamps:1:22 - 32:20 – Iran32:20 - 39:10 – Turkey39:10 – 52:40 Islam/Pakistan52:40 – end – Any optimism?Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob discuss the latest developments in geopolitics and markets. They dissect the U.S. inflation print before discussing why the euro is at a critical moment, why no one should be certain about China going into 2023, and some peripheral risks that aren’t being focused on enough. They also discuss Jacob’s savant-level soccer predictions.Timestamps:2:00-12:05 – U.S. Macro12:05-20:10 – Pivotal moment for Europe20:10-40:29 – China is confusing40:14–48:20 – Canary in Southeast Asia48:20-end – Grains + ArgentinaMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Elohim Monard joins Jacob for an emergency podcast to discuss the “dumbest coup attempt in history.” They discuss what happened this week in Peru, why it happened, and what it means for the future. Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Rob and Jacob break down false narratives on U.S. macro and on German de-industrialization before taking a trip around the world and looking at key issues in the EU-Hungary conflict, and China’s COVID-19 and real estate problems. They close with some optimism about Japan and ways of thinking about demographics and globalization in a rapidly changing world. Timestamps:1:22 - 10:40 - False Narratives in Macro10:40 - 23:00 - German De-Industrialization23:00 - 36:26 - Hungary's Bad Bets36:26 - 43:00 - China's COVID-19 & Real Estate Problems43:00 - End - JapanMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Dan Basse and Jacob sit down in person to talk about the world, markets, and, of course, agriculture!Dan Basse is President of AgResource and a fantastic guest! https://agresource.com/about/Timestamps2:00 – 14:00 – Recapping presentations at PDPW14:00-26:00 – Peak U.S. Farmland/2023 Predictions/Russia-Ukraine24:00 – end: Why people underestimate Brazil + thoughts on MexicoMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob gather for their weekly chat and discuss the protests in China and what is being missed about them. They then discuss the quietly deteriorating trade relationship between the U.S. and EU before focusing in on developments in Latin America, especially the problems in Mercosur and how Brazil may or may not capitalize. Timestamps1:15-20:15 – China20:15-30:00 – U.S.-EU relations30:00 – end: Latin America + multipolarityMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future.Jacob welcomes Jacek back onto Cognitive Dissidents to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. They discuss several critical issues, including 1) Who fired the missile that landed in Poland and killed 2 people? 2) Will Germany stand up for Ukraine in the long-run? 3) Is the world headed towards a U.S.-China rivalry.Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Mike Edwards is Deputy CIO at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.Jacob and Mike discuss China headlines briefly before diving into the main topic: whether the Chinese Communist Party can encourage alternatives to property as an investment vehicle in China. From there they touch on Japan briefly before concluding with some bullish thoughts on Europe.Timestamps:1:13-7:33 – China COVID Reopening7:33-15:26 – G-20 Thoughts15:26-32:13 – China’s Property Crisis32:30-38:50 – Japan38:50–end – EuropeMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob and Rob tackle the FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried debacle, before turning to China’s struggles (and whether Xi Jinping is up to them), as well as thoughts on U.S. Fed and ECB monetary policies…with historical allusions back to the interwar period of the 20th century.1:42-27:30 – Crypto/FTX/SBF27:30-45:53 – China45:53-end: The Fed v. the ECB; the U.S. as the UKMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob is joined by Daryl Ritchison, Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network at NDSU, to discuss how the weather will look in the world in the year ahead. They start with some broad thoughts about the pitfalls of predicting the weather, before checking in on the U.S, Canada, Mexico, South America, Europe, and China and what weather has in store in the year ahead.Timestamps:2:10–10:10 – How to think about weather10:10-21:30 – La Nina and Hurricane Season21:30-31:47– Europe31:47-36:41 – USA36:41-39:38 – Mexico + Canada39:38 - 43:40 – South America43:40 – 49:37 – China and Asia in general 49:37 – end – Thoughts on climate change Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Rob and Jacob briefly address the weaker-than-expected inflation print before attending to developments you might have missed amidst all the U.S. inflation and election news: more economic trouble in China, optimism in Europe and Brazil…and a potential canary in the coal mind at the end of the episode. Timestamps:1:30-6:37 – U.S. Inflation Reaction6:37-24:55 – China/Japan25:00-33:40 – Multipolar Trade933:40-44:10 – Europe44:10–End – Canary in the coal mineMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Marko Papic is back to talk about the markets, Russia's big fudge on oil (and war), and a little bit of everything else geopolitical! Stick around for some basketball talk after 1:04:10!TimeStamps:3:12 - 23:34 - Markets Update23:30 - 39:30 - Oil, Europe, UAE, Russia39:30 - 52:20 - Ukraine, Russia, The Future52:20 - 1:04:10 - Over-Under1:04:10 - End BasketballMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

After a 2-week hiatus due to COVID and travel, Rob and Jacob are back at it. They explore Russia’s brief exit from the Black Sea grain deal, discuss how China and the U.S. economies are going in opposite directions, explore short-term risks and long-term opportunity in Turkey, before closing with bullish thoughts on Brazil post-election.Timestamps:2:00-15:43 – Who wins if Russia is weak?16:00-43:46 – U.S. booming, China on its knees43:46-58:53 – Turkey: The Good, Bad, and the Ugly58:53–end – Why we love BrazilMake sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

Jacob welcomes Dave Ripplinger on the podcast to discuss the problems Europe is facing this winter and the areas they agree and disagree. They also talk about the U.S. energy economy, the role of biofuels and renewable diesel in the U.S. energy transition, and close with some broad thoughts about the future of U.S. agriculture for the remainder of the decade. David Ripplinger is Assistant Professor at the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics and the Chair of the Bioenergy Products and Innovation Center at North Dakota State University.Timestamps:3:00-24:50 – Debating Europe’s winter 24:50-40:10 – Will the U.S. continue to export energy40:10-54:20 – Biofuels and renewable diesel54:20-end – Should you buy farmland today?Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

This is a crossposted episode from the Rane Podcast Series with Stratfor!Rodger Baker, executive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE, and Jacob discuss the practice of applied geopolitics in the context of Russia's war with Ukraine, Putin's efforts to leverage energy supplies against Europe, and China's 20th Party Congress (among other asides). The original episode is here.Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.