The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft(11:42) - Iran and the West Bank(19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran?(28:17) - What is next for Iran?(34:55) - Does Israel go after Hezbollah?(40:40) - Joe Biden's next steps(45:44) - Where is Turkey in all of this?(51:00) - Egypt's role in this crisis(55:51) - The Muslim world's take--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure(08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update(10:20) – Hamas’s intentions(17:08) - Is Iran behind this?(22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals?(29:33) - How do hostages fit into the situation?(36:00) - How long does Israel have to accomplish its goals?(38:59) - How will this affect Israel's relationships with Arab neighbors?--Referenced in the Show:Nitzan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/nitzandfuxSubstack: https://nitzangreatgame.substack.com Great Game Pod: https://greatgame.blog--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Cousin Marko is back at long last – he and Jacob discuss why U.S. elections are the most important thing in the world geopolitically and all the myriad ways a multipolar world is influencing the balance of power and investment decisions. They close with the best basketball analysis you’ll find anywhere in the U.S. YEAH WE SAID IT!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) – U.S. Elections(16:53) – Score settling in geopolitics(31:35) – Europe x China relations(43:47) – Ideologies under multipolarity(50:45) - China and the U.S./investment implications(1:00:25) – Over/Under(1:06:54)-end – Basketball--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob is in the middle of Mississippi without his fancy microphone, but that doesn’t stop him from recording a reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s declaration of war in response. Jacob tries to compartmentalize the politics and emotion of the situation – a nearly impossible task – to explain what is going on at both a local and regional level and what this escalation in violence will mean.--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob are on the same continent for a change! They try to make sense of recent volatility in oil prices and take a victory lap on being ahead of the curve on the bloodbath in bond markets. From there, they explore the U.S.-Mexico-China love triangle and what history can and can’t teach us about the future of those three countries. Last but not least is Ukraine’s quest to become the Israel of Eastern Europe and whether Kyiv can produce weapons for itself in sufficient quality and quantity to maintain its counteroffensive against Russia.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:06) - Oil/Crude(07:11) - Macro Context/Bond carnage(16:47) - US x Mexico x China relations(30:45) - Is the US reliving Chinese history with fentanyl (40:50) - Migration and coordination(45:00) - Ukraine wants to build its own weapons--Referenced in the Show:The Third Opium War – https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2019-issue-no-13/the-third-opium-warCRS backgrounder on U.S.-Mexico relations – https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42917.pdf--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob Shapiro and Shaun Haney unpack the India-Canada diplomatic nightmare of the last few weeks and how the Ukraine/Russia war might end.Link to RealAg Post: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/09/frontlines-national-interests-vs-ideology-indian-separatism-and-western-support-for-ukraine/--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast.  --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:20) - Macro Overview(19:20) – EU problems (25:20) - No optimism in EU(36:06) – Japan automakers leave China(40:15) - 4 interesting events--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Daniel Stelter to the podcast to begin his research process into the future of the German economy with a sober conversation with an expert who thinks Germany is a long-term short. Dr. Stelter's take differs greatly from the one we take at CI, and we really enjoyed hearing his perspective on the future of Germany. Dr. Stelter is the founder of the German Discussion Forum Beyond the Obvious (www.think-beyondtheobvious.com), focusing on strategic and macroeconomic issues. He has written several books, mostly in German.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(05:00) - Why are you pessimistic about Germany?(06:04) - Germany's demographic problems(09:35) – Germany’s education problems(14:00) - Germany's energy problems(19:39) - Why is Germany failing in education?(25:00) - Why pessimist about German demographic trends ?(37:00) - “Deindustrialization” and other fairy tales(44:49) - How bad will things get? (53:33) - How to fix Germany?(57:16) - A few thoughts on the future of the EU--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsJacob Website: https://jacobshapiro.comJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:www.think-beyondtheobvious.com--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:20) - Snot(02:02) - Brazil cut interest rates(11:11) - Brazil/US real estate liquidity (16:37) - Interest rates, commodities, manufacturing in China(22:51) - Nagorno-Karabakh(30:18) - How weak is Russia? What's next?(33:05) - Why should I care about Nagorno-Karabakh?(38:44) - Ukrainian Worries(46:00) - India and Canada --CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:24) –German Industrialization(06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics(22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0 (39:28) - China’s tech resilience--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the years ahead.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:27) - The legacy of the Allende coup(08:33) - Chile's development(12:35) - Chile’s constitutional process(15:50) - Another social explosion?(18:00) - Is Chile a good investment?(22:50) - Why does Chile have strong institutions?(27:00) - Chile’s global position (energy, trade, politics)(31:42) - China's attractiveness to Chile(34:20) - Chile’s regional geopolitics(39:30) – Chile’s future(42:00) - Ideological and political choices(43:50) - Will Chileans ever feel like the coup was justified?--Links:Dr Funk’s article: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/fifty-years-later-he-haunts-us-still/Christopher Hitchens article: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v24/n13/christopher-hitchens/11-september-1973CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state.Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkeyJacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email [email protected] to discuss access.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:35) – Istanbul v Ankara(06:35) - Turkey's Economy(14:00) - Turkish Coalitions(17:10) - Turkey and Russia(22:27) – Turkey and NATO(27:30) - Turkey and China(30:35) - Erdogan's Policy(32:15) - Turkey and the Middle East(38:00) - Predictions--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:00) - Migration(06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside(10:15) - Stagnation in Japan(15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations(21:50) - South China Sea(28:42) - Chinese military vs. Japanese military(32:40) - Japan and the Korean Peninsula(38:40) - North Korea(42:11) - Japan and India/Southeast Asia(46:30) - Canada--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:32) - How to think about information(13:15) - The challenges of information overload(19:11) - Participating in the media environment(24:50) - Healthy skepticism(26:30) - Journalism(33:00) - Information gathering tactics(39:00) - The human brain, aging, and information(48:00) - The refraction of old models(52:40) - The value of being a contrarian--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of China in the region, among other things.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:00) – Guatemalan Elections(14:44) – Argentinian Elections(40:40) – Ecuador--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:55) – Prigozhin(08:06) – BRICS(12:00) – India(14:52) – Ethiopia(15:52) – Guatemala --CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensationalism…but also real progress.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:32) - What is a superconductor?(12:00) - What is LK99?(14:40) - Fake superconductor claims(19:00) - Is LK99 significant?(22:30) - Prospects for a usable room temp superconductor(25:45) - New developments in fusion 22:03(30:00) - Diving into fusion technology(36:33) - Helion x Microsoft partnership(44:40) - Will we see fusion reactors within our lifetime?(53:00) - Which country is developing fusion the fastest?(57:25) - Can we stop using fossil fuels altogether?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections(03:36) – Panama Canal(04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria(08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh(09:39) – Wheat(12:29) – China(16:00) – Germany--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers.Check out RealAg Radio here: https://www.realagriculture.com/category/realag-radio/--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Chase pinch hits for Rob in CI’s weekly update with Jacob. Chase offers a sober take on inflation, before Jacob and Chase explain their bullishness on natural gas and energy in general for the rest of the year. They close with an examination of Japan’s recent moves – and explore how deglobalization is affecting both Japan and China in tandem.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:20) - Inflation(10:08) - Jerome's Take(15:05) - Chinese Deflation(20:00) - Higher Commodities(22:30) - Natural Gas(33:50) - Coal(42:00) - Cannabis(43:40) - Telecom and 5G(45:16) - Japan Update(56:13) - China and Japan's Relationship(01:00:30) - China's Economy--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to pick up where he and Jacob left off a month ago: about the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Sim and Jacob discuss the nitty-gritty of the security situation and how it raises disturbing opportunities for radicalized jihadist voices in the region. From there, they wax philosophical about whether Africa is facing a new era of colonialism and how to approach the broader challenges facing the region, before closing with some brief thoughts on Russia and Ukraine.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(02:00) – Military intervention in Niger(05:00) - If there is an intervention in Niger- who?(09:00) - Regional Interests and jihadist opportunities(12:00) - Realistic interventions(18:00) - How do you contextualize this in the larger Saheli context?(25:30) - Does this matter for the world?(31:40) - What are Russia and China thinking?(35:20) - Neocolonialism 2.0(41:46) - Chinese Interests(47:25) - Should we intervene in Niger?(55:00 - Russia-Ukraine Update--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Paul Melly joins the podcast for the first time to offer some much-needed insightful analysis on the developing political situation inside of Niger and the Sahel in general. Jacob and Paul discuss the coup itself and why it looks like the junta is here to stay. They discuss the myriad external actors – France, the U.S., Nigeria, ECOWAS, China, Russia, the EU and Algeria, to name just a few – and how they are thinking about the situation. Paul closes with his best guess on what happens next.Saheli Map - https://cdn.britannica.com/44/241344-050-084F77EE/Locator-map-Sahel.jpgWSJ Article - https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/03/mohamed-bazoum-coup-niger-democracy/--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:40) - Paul's background(09:00) - Niger Coup Recap(20:00) - How stable is the region or new regime?(29:08) - External actor interest(44:00) - What happens next?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Matt Pines back onto the podcast to follow through on his promise to have a serious and rigorous conversation about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Matt and Jacob briefly address U.S.-China relations before addressing the controversial recent Congressional hearings about UAPs and exploring the political developments around UAPs and non-human, extraterrestrial life. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:26) - U.S.-China cyber relations(09:26) - Is the US actively targeting China via cyber attacks?(12:30) – Politics of aliens(18:26) - Plausible Deniability?(30:10) - Why is there US bipartisan support for alien investigations?(36:40) – Do aliens exist?(49:19) – What does it mean if they do?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob are back at it for a weekly chat. They discuss disturbing news out of China that supports Rob’s pessimism in recent months and cuts against some of Jacob’s more optimistic thoughts. From there, they check in on Brazil and its interest rate cut and what the media is getting wrong about that, before closing with some thoughts on Argentina, Turkey, India, and a rapid fire discussion of important points that are not getting enough attention.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:21) - Disturbing News out of China(06:13) - Chinese Rocket Force(09:22) - Chinese stimulus(13:17) - China's power base(20:00) - Entrepreneurship in China(24:04) - Brazil's Central Bank cut rates(29:55) - Is there any hope for Argentina's economy?(33:55) - Turkish Monetary Policy(40:27) - Turkey is under Gulf influence(43:11) - Does India want to get close to the West?(48:30) - Room temperature superconductors?(49:09) - West African Security--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes back Tomás Villalón Jr onto the Cognitive Dissidents Podcast. They deliver insights on what elements are truly rare (you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out which!), why China has such a dominant position in gallium and germanium, and tackle the mania over lithium…before turning a little philosophical and laying out the challenges facing particularly democratic governments in increasing production of critical minerals in the years to come.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) - What elements are ACTUALLY rare?(11:00) - Can gallium mining be profitable in the US?(14:44) - Chinese rare earth export controls (Gallium & Germanium)(16:44) - Is Lithium just a current boom/bust cycle?(21:45) - When will the US start approving more domestic mines? Does Democracy gum up our ability to mine freely?(24:15) - Is China on the cutting edge of mining technology? Can the US catch up?(27:35) - What are the ramifications of multipolarity on mining? (31:00) - Is cutting dependence on China all talk? What will disruption look like?(35:10) - Will PGM controls stall US technological progress?(37:15) - Vertical integrations of mines into companies (think Tesla)(38:20) - Semiconductors are beginning to vertically integrate--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob Shapiro is rejoined by Daryl Ritchison for a reality check on the importance of El Nino in the larger atmospheric setting. They discuss whether weather (see what I did there?) is actually getting worse relative to historical averages and preview what the forecast ahead looks like for North America and Europe.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) - Is the weather actually getting worse?(07:16) - North American weather predictions(14:00) - Weather expectations for the rest of 2023(22:00) – What is El Niño and Niña?(26:30) - Are we transitioning into El Niño?(27:50) - How long to El Niño's last?(31:12) - Long-term ramifications of El Nino(35:50) - Larger weather trends?(40:00) - 10 year forecast(51:00) - Preventing another Dust Bowl(53:00) - Europe forecast(58:00) - Will Europe be warmer and wetter?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob catch up on Rob’s trip to Ireland this week and why it might presage new migration issues in Europe. From there they turn to the narrative about electric vehicles and why they are not the glittering solution they are made out to be, before diving deep into the U.S.-China relationship and checking on where China is on the treadmill to hell. Closing thoughts on wheat and natural gas. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:15) - Ireland Check-In(09:40) - Migration Flows and the European Union(18:01) - Brazil's EV Transition(31:12) - China and EV's(36:46) - China's Future(44:11) - Consumption is the key to recovery in China?(47:20) - China and US relations thawing?(56:00) - Wheat and LNG--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-19/why-brazil-is-falling-behind-in-the-electric-car-transition--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob offers some thoughts on Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and analysis on Russia’s threats to bomb ships headed for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. This collapse affects developing countries He closes with possible scenarios going forward and explains what this means for wheat prices and other grains. We will post our regular Weekly Update with Rob on Saturday, 7/22!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:34) - Black Sea Grain Deal Collapse Summary(04:10) - Who does this affect?(07:30) - Sunflower oil importers(10:33) - Putin's twisted logic(12:12) - Turkey's role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative(14:50) - What happens next?(19:59) - Most likely scenarios--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the week ahead will bring for Peru.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) - Inflation(05:00) - What's the Fed's next move?(10:00) - Are we nearing the end of the inflation crisis?(14:06) - Germanium and Gallium(16:30) - Geopolitics(17:20) - Why is Erdogan doing such an about face in Turkey?(33:49) - Brazil's Tax Reforms(40:00) - Brazilian Hotdogs and AI(47:44) - Quality of food(51:35) - Peruvian Unrest--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive (05:50) - Defining success for Ukraine(07:20) - Russian readiness and analysis(08:50) - Can Ukraine get the weapons that they need?(12:50) - Let's talk about cluster munitions(16:50) - What weapons class will Ukraine get next?(19:38) - What happened with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup?(25:11) - Was the coup planned??(26:11) - Russian military morale(30:00) - Why should we care about what's going on in the African Sahel?(33:32) - When did the Sahel begin to deteriorate?(38:40) - The threads that connect West Africa(49:30) - Wagner/Putin's African interests(55:30) - Is the rest of Africa in danger of the Sahel's deterioration?--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsJacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports(12:21) - Natural gas teaser--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:05) - Catching Up(04:32) - Telling Stories with Data(14:40) - Getting Meta(17:20) - US Restricting AI Chips, Cloud Space to China(28:00) - AI Infrastructure (36:10) - Foreboding Developments in AI and Chinese Innovation(43:00) - The Rise of the City-State?(44:48) - Geopolitics within nations(53:30) - Protests in France--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds.Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:00) - Colorado River(10:30) - Is there a chance of improvement?(14:20) - How do we fix this?(17:07) - Geopolitics of water amongst US states(19:54) - Can States realistically make cuts to their water usage?(23:37) - Arizona vs. California (25:09) - Legal issues with water(29:00) - Possible scenarios with water rights(30:55) - The next 10 years of water war negotiations(33:49) - What's stopping desalination efforts?(42:15) - Where do we go from here?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish).--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:42) - Chase predicts a recession(12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap(15:30) - Macro credit(18:20) - Futures in a recession(21:00) - Signals and signs(26:00) - Bullish on Japan(29:00) - Japanese demographics(34:00) - The World's Worst Yen Trader(37:50) - China's role in Japanese markets(41:05) - Chinese demand-side stimulus(44:44) – Nigeria's Future(50:00) - Nigerian Politics(53:47) - Natural gas(01:04:00) - Sports :)--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Russia as we know it, and will usher in a new era of instability for the region (compounded with the Ukranian invasion). They then move onto the market implications, the Ukraine counteroffensive, tactical nuke scenarios, China, and then finally Basketball. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:03) - WTF is going on in Russia?(09:00) - The end of Russia (No REALLY)(12:30) - Putting conspiracy theories to rest(18:23) - Internal strife(25:14) – What happens next in Russia?(31:56) - Market Movements(40:06) – Ukraine Implications(52:41) – Dam Explosion/Tactical Nukes(59:36) - China(1:04:18) – NBA talk and key takeaways--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob Shapiro hops on the mic for an emergency episode to discuss WTF is happening in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has claimed the city Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia. He is currently marching along a highway towards Moscow and there are reports of fighting between Russian Military and Wagner forces. Putin has responded by naming the movement as an armed rebellion. This episode was recorded at 9am Central Time, we will continue to keep you updated!--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Rob is back from vacation and here to provide insights on the UK’s surprising inflation print and why CI believes inflation could be more stubborn than U.S. markets presume. From there, they discuss the latest developments in the Chinese economy – still the most important issue in the world, Titanic submarine developments notwithstanding – before discussing the auto industry and their shared skepticism on the rise of EVs. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:36) - UK inflation (06:15) - US inflation(14:56) - The role of energy volatility in Inflation(16:30) - The value of liquidity(21:13) - Energy companies(22:30) - Multipolarity, inflation, and China(27:00) - Xi Jinping vs. local government(31:54) - The automotive industry(40:13) - EV's + state-run capitalism(44:30) - What's in a market?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Enrique Fonseca onto the podcast for the first time to discuss Spain’s upcoming elections. Enrique Fonseca takes a more conservative approach to politics than Jacob, although they both acknowledge their biases and continue to talk through their disagreements. They spar over the role ideology plays in modern politics and about the extent to which the Spanish left’s emphasis on identity politics has hurt its electoral chances. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:09) – Economy is good, but polls are bad?(16:24) – Who is Podemos/the Spanish left?(30:06) – History of Podemos(32:04) - The radicalization of politics in Spain(36:21) - Radicalization of politics globally(42:30) - Liberalization of Spain(55:20)– What happens next?--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob is joined by Reuben Steff to offer a fresh perspective on New Zealand’s geopolitics. They trace the history of New Zealand-U.S. relations, explore New Zealand’s trade dependence on China, share some thoughts on whether or not New Zealand will join AUKUS, and close on Jacinda Ardern’s legacy.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:20) - Why does NZ care about the rest of the world?(08:27) - Brief history of NZ foreign policy(14:18) - NZ Security Policy(23:10) - US/China Detente(26:04) - The South Pacific(34:20) - Resources of the South Pacific(35:33) - Indonesia (38:30) - AUKUS(47:30) - Jacinda’s Legacy--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob sits down with RealAgriculture's Shaun Haney to discuss the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They walk through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, food prices, Ukraine's escalating counteroffensive, and China's lowkey efforts to arm Russia. Shaun and Jacob will be chatting once a month about the intersections of geopolitics and agriculture, with crossposts across all of our channels!Check out RealAg here - https://www.realagriculture.com/--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Tomás Villalón Jr. on the podcast to talk about the geopolitics of metals. Tomás is on CI’s Innovation Advisory Board in addition to being CTO & Co-Founder at Phoenix Tailings – which means he will be a repeat guest. In this episode, Jacob and Tomás talk about the geopolitics of metals from the highest levels, setting the stage for future episodes on supply chain disruptions, technological developments, and the future of mining…which for better and for worse is the bedrock of human civilization.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(05:42) - Geopolitics of Mining(13:30) - Comparing energy and mining?(15:50) - Future of metals(17:25) - Will steel continue to be the centerpiece of industrialization?(18:10) - What minerals are important and why?(24:10) - Does the US have the capabilities to nearshore our minerals?(28:30) - Energy supply and security(31:08) - Grid Reliability(34:00) - Private/Public partnerships in Big Shovel(37:00) - Scarcity and Demand(40:00) - Copper Futures, can we make the shift?(45:00) - Leaders in copper development--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an optimist more unbridled than he.Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:24) - Iran-U.S. deal?(17:43) – H1 2023 Forecast Recap(33:20) – H2 2023 Forecast(33:52) - Rob's Predictions(37:18) - Jacob's Predictions(43:00) - China, Local Government and Debt(47:45) - Rob the Doomsayer (on China)(51:03) – The illusion of moral decline--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Cousin Marko rejoins the podcast at long last! Jacob and Marko start off with a rousing disagreement on the Russia-Ukraine war and its import on global geopolitics and markets. From there, they throw shade at wanna be geopolitical analysts who spend too much time pontificating about risk premiums rather than using geopolitics to find opportunities. After a brief discussion of Indonesia as an example of an opportunity, they offer their signature, cutting-edge basketball commentary. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) – Disagreement about Ukraine/Russian Offensive(28:41) - Russia's Revolutionary History(32:10) - Geopolitical Risk/Opportunity Premiums(24:40) - European Futures(42:09) - Ireland is Shining(45:22) – Indonesia(50:16) - Basketball--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(02:15) - Strategic Wealth(14:00) - Brazil(22:30) - Spotting Bad Analysis(27:10) - Turkey and Indonesia(32:07) - Speculation and Strategy(37:14) - Economics is Always Wrong(39:16) - The Importance of Qualitative Analysis(45:10) - Poland--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

 Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Election results analysis(14:00) - Future of Turkish economy--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets. You can find more of Alf’s work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro(20:09) – Is China investable?(27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania(37:48) – Japan(43:44) – Indonesia--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Rob and Jacob talk about a decisive week in equity markets and what it means for equity prices. They explore the “AI bubble” and how to separate signal from noise. From there, they turn to China to discuss unemployment and local government debt issues in the Chinese economy and why the grand reopening narrative has and will continue to be wrong. They close with discussing countries/cities at the center of changing geopolitical circumstances – Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Ireland – and why Ireland might be a geopolitical winner for the first time in its long and luckless history. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:06) - Failed breakout + artificial intelligence bubble(11:30) – China's Unhealthy Economy(19:26) - What might China do if they start to freak out?(27:28) - Hong Kong36:30 - Long Ireland, Short UK--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Fan-favorite Sim Tack comes back onto the show to discuss the key issues to watch ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Sim and Jacob break down the status of the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and explore the politics of support for Ukraine and how much time Ukraine has to defeat Russia. Bonus tangents on whether China will invade Taiwan and why you should care that the Sahel, a desert-region of Africa, is seething with instability and violence.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(11:20) – Where is Ukraine’s counteroffensive?(24:05) – What are Ukraine’s objectives?(30:32) – What is the state of Russia’s military?(42:18) – Germany/EU/UK/EU/China views(44:27) – Taiwan tangent(46:07) – December 31st, 2023(55:05) – The Sahel (conflicts you aren't paying attention to)--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Kamran Bokhari of The New Lines Institute rejoins the show to offer insights on the deterioration of political stability in Pakistan…and why the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. From there, Jacob and Kamran train their sights on the South Caucasus, an underappreciated part of the world that is experiencing significant change due to geopolitical competition between Azerbaijan and Iran. They close with a few parting thoughts on Turkey’s recent presidential and parliamentary elections.--Timestamps:(0:00) - Intro(03:00) - Pakistan and Imran Khan(34:00) – Pakistan(36:46) – South Caucasus(56:02) – end – Turkey--CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:20) - Election Results(07:00) - Thai history(20:00) – What does the opposition stand for?(25:40) – Geopolitical implications--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.