The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:57) - Global Economy Worries(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained(03:26) - Why Dubai Matters(04:14) - India View on War(06:46) - Economic Fallout at Home(08:56) - Politics and Nonalignment(11:40) - Cooking Gas Stove Detour(12:51) - What Can India Do(13:55) - Energy Dependence Reality(15:01) - Iran Ties and JCPOA(18:25) - Trump Exit and Trust(24:58) - China Perception and Border(27:12) - Galwan Shifts Public Mood(28:36) - Russia As China Counterweight(29:28) - China Benefits From Gulf War(30:51) - Pakistan Diplomatic Surge(32:46) - Islamabad Reenters Washington(34:54) - Pakistan Security Leverage(37:21) - Asymmetric War Lessons(39:23) - India Pakistan Conventional Focus(42:10) - Iranian Frigate And US India Ties(44:56) - India Best Case Strait Outcome(49:28) - Gulf Partnerships And Multipolarity(54:48) - Closing Thanks And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:Kabir Taneja - https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/kabir-taneja--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question(03:26) - Leadership Narratives and Intel Gaps(06:33) -Iran Capabilities and Escalation(09:55) - Hormuz Toll Booth Scenarios(15:35) - Markets Underpricing the Shock(21:51) - When Crisis Feels Real(27:23) - Defensive Positioning and Themes(32:08) - China Gains From Energy Shift(33:32) - China Soft Power Play(34:16) - Why Sugar Spikes(35:55) - Sugar Timing And Refinery(37:02) - What To Do With 401k(40:25) - Argentina Energy Bet(44:19) - Pre War Market Themes(47:17) - Middle East New Equilibrium(50:17) - Winners Losers And Energy(55:28) - US Dutch Disease Debate(01:02:55) - Human Capital And Nukes01:06:08 Closing Thanks And Outro--Referenced in the Show:Pine Cone Macro - https://www.pineconemacro.com/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--

Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome And Setup(01:30) - Why Scotland Now(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy(07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency(13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund(15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables(20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind(22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills(24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps(27:03) - Green Transition Jobs(29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization(31:20) - Searching For Analogies(34:19) - Ireland And Independence(36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits(39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset(40:57) - Brexit And Global Power(43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate(46:41) -Future Growth Model(49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly(52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision(53:56) - Closing--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--