The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

 Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence. Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has been secured in some form or another.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:40) – Yuroslav's Background(7:20) – How did Russia get here?(13:30) - Why did everyone underestimate Ukraine?(22:40) – Zelensky v Zaluzhny(27:04) - When are Ukraine's next elections?(29:49) – Is the Russia/Ukraine war a stalemate? How much does Russia want? (36:18) - German and European perspective on the war(39:30) - Ukraine's relationship with China(41:11) – The future--Referenced in the Show:Our Enemies Will Vanish - Yuroslav Trofimov: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/0593655184--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Iran launched a bunch of missiles and drones. What next?-- CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob discuss the nature of economic crises, before exploring recent developments in the U.S.-China-Japan love triangle. They also explore the expectedly/unexpectedly hot CPI print and take lessons for the future. Spoiler alert: We think the market is wrong about the yen!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:12) – Taxonomy of crashes/debating globalization(12:26) – China, Janet Yellen, (27:34) – Japan(47:00) – Globalization revisited(55:00) – Shameless plug--Referenced in the Show:NYRB article: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/04/04/the-crash-next-time-seven-crashes-harold-james/--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:10) - Taiwan(19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans(23:07) – Taiwan(25:10) – Immigration/Demographics(45:30) – India(47:30) – Historians rule--Referenced in the Show:Angus Deaton – https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Rethinking-Economics-Angus-DeatonImmigration and the US Economy – https://www.briefingbook.info/p/immigration-and-the-us-economy-since?utm_campaign=email-post&r=bkto&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=emailAssuring Taiwan’s Innovation Future – https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/29/assuring-taiwan-s-innovation-future-pub-80920--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:39) – Defining terms(11:41) – Weaponizing finance(20:50) – Crypto/Milei(28:00) - WW3 + Ecological disasters(40:57) – Debt(45:15) – Can we grow our way out of the problem?(51:30) – Silver linings playbook--Referenced in the Show:Link to Macrodose: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/macrodose/id1646528688Link to James’s essay: https://socialistregister.com/index.php/srv/article/view/42873--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka(13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse(24:00)– Can Ukraine still win?(29:30)– Sim’s take on Macron/French support for Ukraine(38:30) – Where does the ammunition come from and (40:43) – Ukraine's F16's(47:54) - Zelensky v Zaluzhny and what it would take to get Russia out of the war--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Buckle your seatbelts – this episode is going to take you on a ride. Matt Pines rejoins the show to discuss “the defining challenge of our generation” – the cyber conflict between China and the U.S. From there, they explore the global implications associated with the fragmentation of society due to digitalization and how it might impact currency, trade, and the future of war. And because it’s Matt they close by discussing aliens. Of course --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:48) – China v. US cyber conflict(21:28) – Kinetic threshold(37:48) – Bladerunner 2024 (50:48) – Bitcoin/Hunger Games(57:33) – Aliens --CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob are pressed for time, but they squeeze in a quick podcast between meetings to discuss the big news out of Japanese markets this week. They give a window into CI’s international allocation strategy and what countries they are feeling good and bad about, before turning to political intrigue in Vietnam and lessons for and from the U.S. semiconductor industry after the allocation of over $8 billion in grants to $INTC.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Japan and the Fed(17:30) – Yikes Canada(22:09) – Vietnam( 31:41) – Intel and the CHIPS Act--Referenced in the Show:Economist Article: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/03/19/why-japans-economy-remains-a-warning-to-others--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Kevin Evans to discuss Indonesia – Kevin’s experience in the country over the last three decades, the recent elections and mysterious change in the political mood of the country since 2019, Prabowo and his political ambitions, and the future of the Indonesian economy. They close with some talk about Jakarta and Indonesian food.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:25) - Why Indonesia(06:06) – Shadows of authoritarianism(14:00) – Prabowo(29:25) – Future of the Indonesian economy(41:25 – Indonesia-Oz relations(44:33) – Jakarta(54:02) – What to eat--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob are back at it for a marathon episode featuring your favorite segment, microgeopolitics, and extended discussion about technical analysis and why you should be wary of the euphoria in markets right now. They close with some thoughts on the latest (and hot) inflation print, and some notable developments in Ukraine and China. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:54) – Microgeopolitics – WI Dells(14:20) – S&P 500 reversal?(23:00) – Technical analysis(29:50) – Japanese candlesticks(47:30) – Inflation(58:40) – Ukraine(1:06:30) – China--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Professor Gary Saul Morson of Northwestern University joins the podcast to discuss his recent article in The New York Review of Books about “Russian exceptionalism.” Gary explains what Eurasianism is, to what extent it motivates the decisions and ideology of the Kremlin, and how to think about the history of Russia’s ideas about the Westin the context of Russia and Ukraine’s futures.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (02:00) – Eurasianism(17:00) – What does Putin think/believe(28:06) – Russia’s views of the East/China(32:32) - Russian exceptionalism--Referenced in the Show:Link to Gary’s piece: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob is on the road, Rob is on vacation…and still they bring the analytical firepower to you each week! They do a little microgeopolitics on Eden Prairie, MN, before tackling a big, scary question: What happens if Trump wins and actually does what he says he will do in terms of tariffs? They close with a few thoughts on Emmanuel Macron’s spicy week.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:43) – Microgeopolitics (Eden Prairie)(11:54) – What if…tariff edition(20:30) - Tariff of Abominations History Lesson(27:00) – Investment takeaways(42:00) - Rejoinders from the Trump administration(44:40) – France--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA research, onto the show. They reflect on their careers at Stratfor before diving into Matt’s thoughts on the Chinese economy, Taiwan’s future, and “Black Swan” Scenarios investors and analysts should have on their radar in 2024.--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob is in a spicy mood, coming to you live from Pleasant Prairie WI. He and Rob do another round of “microgeopolitics” on this part of Wisconsin before diving into the Middle East and updating on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That segues into a brief conversation about the future of Europe before Jacob squares off against ChatGPT to find historical analogies to the UAE’s strange $35 billion investment in Egypt.See: https://www.emilydickinsonmuseum.org/to-make-a-prairie-1755/--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:50) - Kenosha, WI(16:50) – Middle East update(40:02) – EU future(50:40) – Egypt, the UAE, etc--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Rodger back onto the podcast to talk about North Korea’s recent decision to call South Korea by its official name – as well as its abandonment of reunification as its most important geopolitical goal. They explore the potential ramifications of that for North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, before thinking through scenarios for the Korean peninsula in the context of U.S. elections. They close with Rodger’s thoughts on demographics, democratization of military tech, and the Arctic.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:05) - North Korea (13:10) – South Korea(18:30) – Nuclear proliferation/(23:15) – Internal DPRK dynamics(29:29) - U.S. election scenarios(33:38) – DPRK v ROK war(35:47) – Rodger’s macro view--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob hits the road and brings perspectives on geopolitics and markets from the point of view of Eau Claire WI, formerly Sawdust City, home of Bon Iver, the once mighty U.S. tire industry…and the biggest horseradish producer around. Rob and Jacob discuss the U.S. tire industry and the lessons its demise poses for geopolitics and markets, before backing into conversations about China, U.S. trade policy, NVIDIA HYPE, and human capital.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30)– Eau Claire, WI(04:30) – Tires(24:15) – China and Mexico(30:03) – Trump's U.S. trade policy + semis(43:37)– Human capital(51:00) – Quick global roundup--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob take a victory lap on higher-than-expected U.S. inflation. They tackle a listener-submitted question about where Chinese deflation might affect the U.S., and explore the political impact of inflation/deflation and both the U.S. and China. They close with a brief survey of geopolitical risks in the world going unnoticed as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and the Chinese economy crowd out the space for headlines.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:17) - Inflation(11:34) - Political Side of Inflation(23:57) - Is China in deflation?(45:25) - Venezuela x Guyana--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rob is busy trying to get French citizenship, so favorite-guest Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro joins the podcast to talk U.S. macro, oil and natural gas prices, and how to think about investing in a world of doom & gloom.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:45) – U.S. macro(09:26) – Oil(20:15) – NatGas(27:55) – U.S. v. Intl | Hong Kong/China(41:35) – Extrapolating doom: Egypt and Pakistan(49:10) – Bitcoin--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Caroline Eaton Tracey joins the podcast to offer a thoughtful perspective on the Rio Grande River based on her recent article in The New York Review of Books. After discussing how dams on the river supported by the Mexican and U.S. governments have changed local communities and endangered natural ecosystems, they turn to Caroline’s new research interest and the topic of her forthcoming book: Salt Lakes.--Timestamps:Caroline’s website – https://cetracey.com/Stopping the Old Rio Grande – https://www.nybooks.com/online/2024/01/11/stopping-the-old-rio-grande/Climate change and the Rio Grande – https://e360.yale.edu/features/warming-and-drought-take-a-toll-on-the-once-mighty-rio-grandeSatellite images of the Rio Grande – https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150244/rio-grande-runs-dry-then-wet--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Better late than never! Jacob was on the road this week so instead of recording on Thursday they had to record on Friday. The theme of the episode might be confusion – confusion over the narrative on the U.S. economy, on oil prices, on natural gas prices, and even on the future of Ukraine. There are more questions than answers in this episode during a surprisingly pivotal week in geopolitics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(04:45) - US Economy(14:05) – Middle East(24:00) – Oil(35:50)– Natural gas(42:12) – Ukraine--Referenced in the Show:Link to affective polarization article: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/09/05/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-united-states-what-research-says-pub-90457--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Farzam back onto the podcast – and they have a great deal to discuss, not least of which is the death of three U.S. soldiers in a drone attack by a group supported by Iran. Jacob and Farzam dive past the headlines and talk about what the consequences of the attack will be, whether Iran was behind it, and what Iran’s strategic thinking is in the region more generally, and especially in relation to Oct. 7 and the Red Sea shipping disruptions.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:00) - What happened with the attack in Jordan?(11:24) - Who was behind the attack? Was it Iran?(20:26) - Chances for a regional war/Iran’s red lines(31:00) – What does Iran want and how will it affect Red Sea shipping(41:08) – Iran-China relations(46:00) – Iran’s domestic politics--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes weather expert Daryl Ritchison back on the podcast to discuss his 2023 hits and misses, his 2024 outlook, and to dive deep into questions of El Nino, weather history, and the riskiest places in the world to live.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:24) – 2023 in review(07:56) – El Niño and the MEI(14:24) – 2024 Outlook: North America(26:35) – Buoys tangent(31:18) - 2024 Outlook: South America(35:00) – Pacific Decadel Oscillation/Dust Bowl(44:00) – Most/Least riskiest places in the world to live--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investment perspective) before closing by parsing some interesting data about renewable energy capacity and what it might say about energy prices toward the end of the decade.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:45) - Semiconductors(13:05) - How the government assesses risk(27:19) – EVs(41:02) – Energy/Batteries/Solar(45:00) - Chinese capital controls and the Chinese stock market--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture!Up for discussion in this episode:Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping laneLogistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be?There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this oneTaiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China better or worse and why does it matter?Speaking of elections, what about Argentina?China/Argentina tradeOn to America! The U.S. election set for November is going to be a wild rideIt doesn’t matter who wins, either way, it’s going to have a huge impact on geopoliticsThe outcome of the U.S. election will be a major factor in shaping geopolitical instability and volatility in the coming year, Shapiro says-- CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob tackle conflicting narratives about oil prices before diving deep into geopolitical and market issues in China and France. They close by addressing some user-submitted questions on the Red Sea and on the stories that are not discussed enough by the mainstream media. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:10) - Present and Future of Oil(19:15) - China/Taiwan(37:25)– France(42:49) – Listener Q&A – Red Sea(49:45) – Q&A – Under the radar--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Sim returns to the podcast to talk about the successes and failures of Ukraine’s military forces and what the future looks like in the Russia-Ukraine war. From there they spend a bit of time talking about the Red Sea and Black Swans that might impact 2024 and beyond.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:40) – 2023 Russia-Ukraine War Retrospective(15:15) – 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Predictions(33:00) – Red Sea/Sahel/KSA oh my(40:20) – Black Swans--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob take a deeper look at a recent World Bank study that purports to show how countries can increase investment…and in so doing reduce poverty and inequality. They tease out some of the assumptions the report makes but also point out how to think about the countries that will succeed in a multipolar world. They also check in on a few geopolitical hotspots: the Red Sea, Ecuador, and Germany…before a mea culpa about Ethiopian Airlines. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (03:14) - Red Sea Update(14:00) - The World Bank(24:40) - Let's talk about state institutions(32:43) - Multipolarity, protectionism, & the destabilizing influence of unchecked capital flows(40:53) - Germany(45:50)- Ecuador: What cocaine and the Catholic Church have in common(54:07) - USA, USA, USA--Referenced in the Show:Protectionism: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/protectionism-trade-restrictions-reach-an-alltime-high-826372023 Global Cocaine Report:https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/cocaine/Global_cocaine_report_2023.pdfWorld Bank 2024 Economic Prospects: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7a21a380-5c54-4a8d-9c54-22180abb1adb/content--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Ben Shepherd joins Jacob to talk about the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ben urges listeners to think and look beyond the endless stories about violence in the DRC and instead to note, however, halting and fragile, the progress the country has made in the last 20 years and its potential in the future.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:36) – History and geography of the DRC(15:15) - Why is it shaped that way?(21:48) – Breakdown of Congolese misgovernance(28:26) - Violence in the eastern DRC(42:26) – Recent elections and the future--Referenced in the Show:Ben’s recent article on DRC elections: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/01/drcs-election-was-halting-step-towards-embedding-democracyMap of Congo: https://alearningfamily.com/main/wp-content/uploads/DemRepCongoPhysical.jpgKing Leopold’s Ghost: ​​https://www.amazon.com/King-Leopolds-Ghost-Heroism-Colonial/dp/0618001905Bourdain episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k59ToTXOuuE--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Smoke rises from the Red Sea. The hour grows late and Rob calls Jacob seeking his counsel. For that is why you have come, is it not…our old friends? If you like the Lord of the Rings, you got that joke. If you didn’t, what’s wrong with you? Welcome to the return of the Cognitive Dissidents podcast in 2024, with Jacob and Rob relatively downbeat about both markets and geopolitics to start off the year.--Timestamps:(01:00) – Market expectations(11:24) - Is the good economy just luck?(18:22) – Chinese economy(27:30) – The Red Sea(43:15) – What's next for the world?--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics.--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Last week of reruns! Jacob Shapiro will be back next week with a full update on his situation and what to expect moving forward. Thank you so so so so much for being so patient with us! In the meantime, we have a fantastic episode with Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere. Matt breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity. Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.-- Timestamps:(00:00)(01:27) - Cyberwarfare(20:10) - 5G + China + Huawei(28:00) - 34:44 - Trust Networks(34:20) - Has there ever been a full-on cyber war?--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rodger Baker and Jacob Shapiro sit down for a discussion about the art and science of doing good geopolitics. Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:23) - Mackinder and the Arctic(24:36) - The Art of the Net Assessment(34:30) - The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come(41:44) - Will China invade Taiwan?--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Today we have a classic Perch Pod episode with Phil Kelly. Phil’s a Professor at Emporia State University. He is the author of Classical Geopolitics which is one of the five books Jacob has assigned almost every geopolitical analyst he has ever trained. He and Jacob talk about the definition and intention of Geopolitics and delve into the Geopolitics of Latin America.--Timestamps:(01:10) - Intro(04:47) - Why Geopolitics?(07:18) - What is Geopolitics? (25:19) - Geopolitics of the “Three Americas”(47:16) - Mexico + South America- Discussing Immigration and Climate Change --Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Rachel Ziemba makes her debut on the podcast to discuss what you missed at APEC while everyone was focused on Xi and Biden, prospects for growth in Venezuelan oil production, and why the market might be a little too sanguine about oil prices in 2024.--Timestamps:(00:51) – Argentina(05:58) – Indonesia/APEC(16:09) – Venezuela(26:10) – Dark underbelly of the economy(31:51) – Iran(39:00) – Oil--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers.--Referenced in the Show:Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJYEmre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:02) – Current perceptions of deglobalization(07:02) - Current reality of deglobalization(15:15) - Is IP ever safe?(24:01) - Semiconductors & AI & China(30:08) - The trajectory of US/China relations(39:40) - What's next for semiconductor production?(47:20) - Geopolitical competition and the future of tech--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Javier Milei--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(03:30) - U.S-China relations(32:04) - Investing--Referenced in the Show:Fight in the Senate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO9fnjshHvgChinese readout: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202311/t20231116_11181442.htmlUS readout: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/15/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-2/Tweet: https://x.com/MebFaber/status/1722409650380005859?s=20--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacek and Jacob brave illness to reunite on the podcast. Jacek offers a gloomy perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, an optimistic perspective on Poland’s future no matter who rules its government – and a lesson to learn for the democratic world from Turkish pragmatism.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:52) - Polish elections(09:00) - Will Ukraine be a part of EU/NATO?(14:27) - Russia-Ukraine war(20:45) - Can Ukraine produce their own ammunition?(22:45) - Nuclear proliferation(28:00) - Russia-Ukraine war(29:16) - What's next for Poland/Polish awakening(40:05) - Turkey in relation to Poland/Ukraine(44:43) - Israeli's lack of strategic depth--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob is on the road and Rob is fresh off earnings season but that doesn’t stop them from churning out a pod on life’s most persistent questions. They explore the demise of a nuclear project in the U.S. and what it means for the U.S. energy economy, Jacob comes clean about feeling pessimistic about Ukraine, and Rob talks about credit quality issues in the U.S. economy. It’s not all doom & gloom though – Brazil continues to shine.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:07) – Nuclear problems in the US(15:30) – Brazil updates(22:15) - Troubles for Ukraine(32:50) – Credit problems--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Come for Hafsa Halawa’s deep insight on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a regional point of view. Stay for her insight on the Sudanese civil war, the future of the Egyptian and Ethiopian states, and how everything in the region is interconnected.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) -9:35 – Regional considerations(11:30) – Israel's perspective and strategic goals(19:04) – Egypt, Jordan and the reinvigoration of Palestinian politics(7:57) – Palestinian perspective(38:22) – Sudan’s civil war(48:40) – Egypt's spiraling situation(53:46) – Ethiopia's civil war--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University joins the podcast to talk about her recent book. She traces three histories – geopolitical, economic, and democratic – to explain how the world reached its current level of disorder and why she sees hard times on the horizon.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:55) - Book Summary(06:30) - Dealing with a changing landscape(12:09) - Understanding Putin's motivations/US Energy(17:30) - Suez Crisis and Germany and Energy(25:11) - What's next for Germany and the EU?(33:24) - Turkey(39:08) - Economic nationhood(43:54) - Inflation and monetary policy(54:37) - Are democratic or authoritarian regimes more efficient?(59:00) - Future of the UK--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob break down the Jerome's latest Fed announcement, inventory and manufacturing cycles, China's interesting new approach to semiconductors, and the inherent danger of monopolistic industries. They venture into the auto world and discuss recent issues with scaling up EV production, before turning to macro-trends and the geopolitical trends (in Mexico, Israel, and Saudi Arabia) that are driving CI's macro strategy. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:23) - The Fed/Rates(07:31) - Global cycles(11:54) - China's new semiconductor (13:54) - Monopolies and innovation(22:15) - EV demand and production(32:31) - CI's macro moves and geopolitics(36:34) - Mexico, risk, and manufacturing(43:00) - Suadi Arabia, war, and oil--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Elohim and Ignacio back on the podcast for a much more upbeat discussion about Argentina’s future in light of last week’s surprising triumph for Sergio Massa against the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei. They also address recent changes in U.S. policy toward Venezuela – and explain why the country may be reaching a critical juncture.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) – Argentina election results(10:04) – What is Peronism?(17:34) – The role of social media(26:11)) – Milei’s chances in the next round(42:35) – The role of the military(51:15) – What happens next?(56:54) – Venezuela--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob offer thoughts about U.S. macro out-performance and some concerning signals coming out of Europe. From there, they offer some thoughts about CI’s unique approach to using geopolitics in the context of investing. They close with thoughts about the life-cycle of analysts and investors and a cautionary tale about guru-syndrome.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:55) - US Macro(08:20) - US consumers are doing well??(12:10) - Economy is good, so why is Joe's rating bad??(15:15) - Migration surge at US border(17:25) - Immigration trends(24:00) - Europe Updates(32:53) – Geopolitics and investing--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(3:35) - Attention and Uncertainty(12:55) - Fear and Uncertainty (17:50) - Why are markets so unstable right now?(25:33) - The Law of Unintended Consequences (36:00) - Are we headed in a good direction?(41:08) - Does a multi-polar world increase the importance of ideology and preferences relative to constraints? (56:25) - Ideologies are malleable at the moment(01:02:05) - How do we apply these concept in investment?--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on the concept of intelligence failures and lessons to learn for executives – we’ll be sure to share it with you when it comes out.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:41) – Turkey’s view of the war(09:54) – Turkey and Iran: Frenemies 4 lyfe(12:20) - Turkey in a regional war(16:45) – Turkey, energy, Saudi Arabia(19:23) - Prospects for regional war(26:49) – Turkey-China(28:25) – What if the conflict spills?--Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine re: Taiwan. They also make a global plea for more Georgian food, plz and thx.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:14) – Serbia/Kosovo(06:08) - Ukraine/Russia(19:07) – The South Caucasus(31:36) – Central Asia(41:05) - end – China-- Referenced in the Show:--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

On today's Intrigue Outloud, Ethan is joined by Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, to break down the latest from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and to consider what the fighting tells us about the state of the world order. Thanks to our sponsor, Millennium Space Systems.--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Jacob and Rob join forces to catch you up on all the important geopolitical and market developments that the Israel-Palestine war has obscured. They tackle carnage in the U.S. bond market and some very worrying developments in the Chinese economy. From there, they briefly explore gold as an investment opportunity as well as the profile of a good emerging market investment, before closing with thoughts on energy markets.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:02) – U.S. Treasuries(11:14) - Government spending increases... an issue??(14:15) – China’s treadmill to hell(20:45) - What is recapitalization?(24:00) - China's banking consolidation (25:46) - Can China use ForEx to wipe out their liabilities?(28:00) - Gold(34:34) - Emerging markets -> Chile(38:55) - Emerging markets -> Turkey(45:45) - Emerging markets -> Argentina(47:00) – Oil and natural gas--CI Site: cognitive.investmentsJacob Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor