The Breakdown

The U.S.-China relationship has an outsized impact on global economics and politics. As that relationship comes even more into focus in the wake of COVID-19 and a return of trade tensions, this episode provides a historical primer. Graham Webster is editor-in-chief of the Stanford–New America DigiChina Project at the Stanford University Cyber Policy Center. He’s also a China digital economy fellow at the New America think tank. In this episode, Webster explains: Why the relationship with the U.S. has been at the forefront of Chinese policy since the People’s Republic of China was formed, but has flitted in and out of America’s focus. Why the first most significant period in the U.S.-China relationship came between the late 1960s and 1970s, as the U.S.-China relationship normalized. How Tiananmen Square undermined but didn’t destroy the relationship. Why George W. Bush came into office with an intention to focus on China but got distracted in the wake of 9/11. Why China has spent the last decade becoming increasingly illiberal. How the rise of social media contributed to the shift. Why China and U.S. policy is as much a reflection of domestic self-identity in both countries as it is a bilateral political question. Why China’s human rights abuses present such a challenge. How COVID-19 changes the relationship. Find our guest online: Twitter: gwbstr Website: DigiChina

The conventional wisdom is that central banks are the most important economic actors in the world. Markets hang on their every word. Yet, what if that power has less to do with actual monetary policy and more to do with how the performance of that policy creates a self-fulfilling prophecy as market actors respond to media coverage? Jeff Snider is the head of global research at Alhambra Investments. In this conversation, he and NLW explore: How the Fed lost the ability to even determine what the money supply is. How the financialization in the 1980s exacerbated monetary confusion. Why the most important force in the global economy isn’t central banks but the eurodollar and shadow banking system. How the eurodollar and shadow banking sector creates a drag on real economic growth. Why the conventional wisdom and “central bank savior” narrative around 2008 was dead wrong. The problem with “survivor’s euphoria.” Why “money printer go brr” is actually a flood myth.

Every day that protests continue and the stock market goes up, more people ask what the disconnect between markets and the real economy is. In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW peels back the story of today’s economy by looking at five numbers: The growth of the S&P500 since the March 23 low Current unemployment stats and a Bloomberg Economics estimate of the number of jobs at risk The performance of the S&P500 in 1968, one of the most tumultuous years in American history The total percentage of the world’s debt denominated in dollar terms The number of flights between the US and China by Chinese airlines going forward

Alex Gladstein is the chief strategy officer of the Human Rights Foundation. He is a powerful voice for the role of bitcoin in combating authoritarianism around the globe. In today's episode, he and NLW discuss: What the protests tell us about the state of democracy in the U.S. The potential impact of protests and COVID-19 on surveillance norms The potential for a "biological Patriot Act" The implications of China's push to absorb Hong Kong The relevance or irrelevance of China's digital currency The role of bitcoin in promoting freedom

Cities around the country have been engulfed in protest in the wake of the murder of 46-year-old black man George Floyd. There is an intense battle for the narrative around the protests. Are they legitimate outcries against institutional racism and police brutality? Is the looting covertly being driven by white supremacists on the one hand or ANTIFA on the other? In the Bitcoin community, some have plumbed the “Bitcoin Fixes This” meme to argue that the core underlying issue has to do with a monetary system that structurally creates inequality. Others have clapped back against pushing that meme in this moment. In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW looks at: What bitcoiners are trying to say when they apply the “Bitcoin Fixes This” meme to this moment. Why the current system structurally exacerbates inequality. Why the meme fails to capture additional economic, political and power dimensions of what’s going on. Why the meme in this moment might feel so out of place as to inspire the opposite of its intended effect: turning people away from bitcoin rather than making them want to learn more. Why Satoshi’s “If you don’t get it, I don’t have time to explain it to you” quote is the most misused and abused of his sayings. Why complexity and nuance, not memes, are needed now.

The week's episodes in one convenient file. Monday | Best of April/May (not included in Weekly Recap) Tuesday | Deglobalization and Other Narrative Violations, Feat. Geoff Lewis Wednesday | Why Innovation Matters (and How Not to Screw It Up), Feat. Matt Ridley Thursday | The Geopolitical Implications of a Too-Strong Dollar, Feat. Brent Johnson Friday | The Battle for the Future of Money, feat. Lawrence Summers, CZ, Michelle Phan, the Winklevoss brothers, The Chainsmokers and more. [Money Reimagined Episode 4]

As the economic dimension of the COVID-19 crisis comes into clearer view, what have we learned about the battle for the future of money? Does the dollar reign supreme? Are within-the-system competitors like the euro or China’s digital yuan gaining ground? Does an outside the system alternative like bitcoin stand a chance? Over the last month, the “Money Reimagined” series has looked at the battle for the future of money. Episode 1 focused on the dollar and why it is simultaneously stronger and more set up to fail than ever before. Catch up: Why the Dollar Has Never Been Stronger or More Set Up to Fail Episode 2 was all about the obvious contenders to replace the dollar such as the euro or China’s currency, especially as they race towards a digital yuan. It also looked at where Facebook’s Libra might fit in the mix. Catch up: The Rise of the Dollar Killers Episode 3 looked at one of the most unique features of this modern currency battle - the fact that there are fundamentally new systems like bitcoin in the running. Can a non-sovereign currency actually be more relevant than global fiats? Catch up: Where Bitcoin Fits in the New Monetary Order This final episode of the “Money Reimagined” series checks in on each of the previous episodes but brings a new set of voices to the mix. Between May 11 and May 14, CoinDesk hosted Consensus:Distributed, a virtual summit featuring some of the leading lights in crypto, finance, economics and pop culture. In this episode, we hear from those voices, including: Lawrence Summers - former U.S. Treasury Secretary Christopher Giancarlo - former Chairman of the CFTC Michelle Phan - YouTube innovator and founder of Ipsy Chaoping Zhao - founder and CEO of Binance The Winklevoss brothers - founders of Gemini The Chainsmokers - Grammy-winning artists Carlota Perez - influential economist

You know the meme: Money printer go brrr. It means inflation right? Not necessarily, says Brent Johnson. Since 2016-2017, Johnson has been arguing the big economic issue of our time isn’t inflation of the U.S. dollar due to excess money printing, but the havoc caused by a global system where the dollar keeps getting stronger and sucks up liquidity from the rest of the world. As the dollar has strengthened over the COVID-19 crisis, his ideas look more prescient than ever. In this conversation with NLW, Johnson discusses: What the “Dollar Milkshake Theory” is Why the implications of the theory stress him out, even though he created it Why everything is relative and no asset can be analyzed in a vacuum Why we could see the dollar, bitcoin and gold rise at the same time Why we can’t discuss macroeconomics without discussing geopolitics and even the military

Twenty-one different people can reasonably claim to have invented the light bulb, but Thomas Edison is the one we know about. Was it just good PR? According to Matt Ridley, it was because Edison was the progenitor of an “innovation factory” that didn’t just create things but brought them to market in a way no one else did. Innovation is one of the most important forces in the economy, and arguably the most important driver of human prosperity over the last century. Yet, for most of its life, it has been viewed as some strange exogenous force, rather than as a discipline that could be understood. In this conversation with NLW and Ridley discuss: Why it took so long for economists to take the study of innovation seriously Why invention is different from innovation Why innovation has tended to concentrate in geographically proximate areas Why free societies produce more innovation than closed societies (including empires) Why China’s innovation production over the last decade may be an exception that proves the rule of innovation thriving in freedom Why government winner picking is a terrible way to inspire innovation Why innovation policy led Matt to support Brexit The rational, optimistic take on the future

The battle to control narratives is the battle to shape how people understand the world around them. But the traditional gatekeepers of narratives - the media - have never had more competition to shape what is perceived as truth. In this episode, NLW speaks with Bedrock Capital founder Geoff Lewis about what it means to seek out opportunities in “narrative violations.” They also discuss: Why de-globalization and “onshoring” are likely to be among the most important economic drivers in the U.S. in the coming decade Why the shift to working from home may be an overblown “narrative mirage” How important questions of institutional decay have been co-opted by the culture war Why independent, individuals in the media have more influence than ever Why we’re in a “narrative mirage recovery”

Highlights from some of the most interesting conversations on The Breakdown from the last two months. 4/1 - Peter Zeihan on why the world we’ve known for 30 years is changing forever 4/6 - Emerson Spartz on a moment of punctuated equilibrium 4/17 - Jared Dillian on the political football of stock buy backs 4/21 - Joe McCann on how financial engineering came to dominate Wall Street 4/22 - Luke Gromen on the genesis of the global monetary order and why the US switched off the gold standard in 1971 5/1 - Danielle DiMartino Booth on how the Federal Reserve moved from incompetent to corrupt 5/9 - Niall Ferguson on a shift back to a multipolar, multi-currency world 5/14 - Jeff Booth on why technology deflation competes with inflationary monetary policy 5/20 - Lyn Alden on the negative impacts of a too-strong dollar 5/22 - Tuomas Malinen on why dismantling the Euro may be the only way to save the European Union

The complete week's shows in one convenient episode Monday | Economic Freedom in the World After Capital, feat. Albert Wenger Tuesday | Lessons from the Financial History of Pandemics, feat. Jamie Catherwood Wednesday | Why a Strong Dollar Is Bad for the US and Bad for the World, feat. Lyn Alden Thursday | ‘Dismantle the Euro to Save Europe’ Feat. Tuomas Malinen Friday | The Shadow of Satoshi’s Ghost: Why Bitcoin Mythology Matters

On Wednesday, a batch of coins mined just a month after bitcoin’s birth were moved. It was the first time since August 2017 that any bitcoin from early 2009 had been transferred, and the action set Bitcoin Twitter on fire. While a number of bitcoin archaeologists quickly and persuasively argued the tokens were almost assuredly not mined by bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, it was a moment that reinforced the living history in the bitcoin ecosystem. In this episode, NLW looks at what makes the Satoshi mythology powerful: Genuine technical innovation and problem solving that had stymied some brilliant minds for decades Incredible instincts around narrative and human psychology, as reflected in the “Chancellor on the Brink” message embedded in the Genesis Block and the ceremony around the halving The incredible contrariness of a creator withdrawing in a world where entrepreneurs are lionized like no one else in society And while the battles within the bitcoin community around interpretation may look more like the early history of religions than like a business ecosystem, NLW argues that fervor is a key part of what de-risks bitcoin, even for investors who don’t at all care about the mythology.

The European Union and the euro are part of the most ambitious political and economic experiment of the 21st century. The COVID-19 crisis, however, has exacerbated growing questions of political will and political legitimacy and led some to wonder if the eurozone can survive. Tuomas Malinen is the CEO of GnS Economics, a macroeconomic advisory firm, and Adj. Professor of Economics at the University of Helsinki. In this interview, he and NLW discuss: Why the European debt crisis was actually a “morally corrupt bank recapitalization project” Why negative interest rates and quantitative easing made the European banking sector particularly weak even before the pandemic Why the German Constitutional Court’s battle with the European Central Bank has major implications for the entire euro system Why European leaders are pushing for deeper integration when citizens want more lightweight integration Why European nations would be more likely to support one another in bilateral arrangements rather than through forced solidarity Why the only way to save the European Union might be to let the euro fade away

The dollar has a unique role in the world due to its reserve currency status. For many years that status has created incredible opportunities for the U.S. Increasingly, however, some are wondering if the global standard has outlived its usefulness - not only for the world but for the U.S., too. In this illuminating conversation, one of FinTwit’s brightest minds, Lyn Alden, shares her perspective on: Why we’re at the end of a strong dollar cycle Why the Federal Reserve is terrified of the global dollar shortage The difference in creditor vs. debtor nations The concept of the Triffin dilemma Why Japan has been able to print money without seeing rampant inflation Why we have inflationary and deflationary forces competing to influence the U.S. economy Why debt is going to matter more than ever What alternatives to the USD system might look like

Jamie Catherwood works at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, a quantitative long-equity investment firm. More importantly, however, he is the finance history guy on Twitter. His “Financial History: Sunday Reads” curation pieces and longer form articles on his site Investor Amnesia have become required reading for anyone who wants the historical context for current financial issues. On this episode of The Breakdown, Jamie and NLW discuss: Financial lessons from previous pandemics, including the 14th century bubonic plague; an 1892 Cholera outbreak in Hamburg, Germany; and, of course, 1918 Strange parallels between 1918’s Spanish flu and the currentcCoronavirus crisis, including an increase in the price of oranges The concept of “Minsky Moments, a key inflection point in bubbles where over-exuberant markets become unwound extremely quickly

Albert Wenger is a partner at Union Square Ventures as well as a prolific thinker and writer. His “World After Capital” is an evolving digital book project that looks at a set of megatrend shifts as the world moves between economic paradigms from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age. In this wide-ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss: Why attention is at the center of the new Knowledge Age Why markets can’t price crucial needs such as pandemic preparedness Why the new era will be defined by three categories of freedoms: economic freedom, information freedom and psychological freedom Why universal basic income has an important role to play in economic freedom How UBI could avoid political capture Why technology is inherently deflationary Why real estate, education and health care should be much cheaper than they are Why community currencies could be a key innovation from the current crisis

The complete week's shows in one convenient file Monday | The Great Monetary Inflation: Paul Tudor Jones' Complete Case For Bitcoin Tuesday | How We Future Now - Live With Kathleen Breitman, Caitlin Long and More Wednesday | A Coming Reckoning: Why The Fed Can't Outspend Deflation, feat. Jeff Booth Thursday | Surveying The Carnage: Movies, Sports, and Education in Crisis Friday | The Great Inflation Escape: Where Bitcoin Fits In the New Monetary Order [Money Reimagined Pt. 3]

Niall Ferguson has called this moment an “age of experimentation” when it comes to currencies. One of the unique features of this moment is the experiments are not limited to the traditional actors. It is not just nation-states trying to elevate their currencies in the face of the global dominance of the dollar, but non-sovereign monies born of decentralized networks that are plausible contenders in this game of currency thrones. Bitcoin was a byproduct of the last financial crisis. This connection was immortalized in the message embedded in the genesis block: “Jan 03/2009 Chancellor on the brink of a second bailout for banks.” More than a decade on, in our new financial crisis, the size, scale and implications of that bank bailout seem positively quaint in comparison. This episode looks at where bitcoin and other permissionless, non-state cryptocurrencies fit in the battle for the future of money. It starts with a look at the bitcoin narrative in the wake of the market crash. With the most significant stock market correlation of its life, did bitcoin’s digital gold narrative evaporate alongside the S&P 500? From there, we move to an asset that has been massively in demand since the beginning of the crisis: USD stablecoins. We explore whether this is simply an affirmation of the supremacy of the dollar or represents a more disruptive force in the global monetary order. We conclude with a look at the relevance of bitcoin on the other side of the crisis. As the market moves from deflationary to inflationary, there are many who will be looking to hard assets and sound money as a cure. In that context, bitcoin could thrive.

This is the second in a series of episodes on how the economic crisis is challenging and transforming different industries. NLW looks at: Movies Direct releases are already making more than box office counterparts AMC is on the verge of bankruptcy (or buyout by Amazon) Production is on hold and even when it resumes, likely to have strict rules on how it is carried out Sports Depending on your study, between 61% and 72% of people surveyed say they’re unlikely to go to live sporting events even after lockdowns are lifted Colleges losing $18B+ in sports related revenue eSports alternatives surging - with conversations on Twitter up 71% Advertising Industry took 8 years to recover from Great Financial Crisis Ad spending already down massively in March/April - down 38% in digital, 41% on TV, 45% on Radio, 51% on outdoor. Education Of public schools, only 22% are offering any live instruction Before crisis, college debt had increased 107% between 2009-2019 Since the 80s, cost to attend college had grown 8x the growth in wages Estimates of 15% fewer enrollments and $23B in lost revenue

Two powerful and diametrically opposed forces are shaping the economy. On the one hand is inflationary economic policy, which keeps the price of assets like real estate and stocks rising ever higher, but at the expense of savings as the value of currency depreciates. On the other is technology-wrought deflation. As technology increases its capacity exponentially, it causes everything it touches to be less expensive. Jeff Booth is the author of “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation Is the Key to an Abundant Future.” In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: How today’s system came to be designed Why policy makers are terrified of deflation Why inflationary policy punishes savers and forces them into riskier markets How policy that prioritizes asset holders over savers has significantly exacerbated inequality Why each dollar of debt is producing less real economic growth than ever before Why proposed “solutions” like MMT and UBI paper over the root causes of the problem

There is a shared sense that the world has shifted. Now begins the messy work of figuring out what it means for the future we’re headed into. This live episode of The Breakdown podcast with NLW features four conversations about how the future is shifting before our very eyes. How We Game and Entertain Now - featuring Kathleen Breitman, co-founder of Tezos and founder of blockchain game studio Coase How We Identity Now - featuring Muneeb Ali, CEO of Blockstack How We Bank Now - featuring Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Avanti Financial Group How We Event Now - featuring CoinDesk’s Joon Ian Wong

Jones' letter lays out his bitcoin and macro thesis. Last week, investing legend Paul Tudor Jones rocked the world of crypto and traditional markets with his full throated entrance into the bitcoin market via his latest letter to Tudor BVI investors. While the headlines (and the quick price bump on the back of FOMO buying) were great, the story is even more interesting than the soundbyte. In this episode, NLW breaks down Paul Tudor Jones complete case for bitcoin, looking at: The context and previous attitudes towards bitcoin of both authors of the letter The “Great Monetary Inflation” thesis driving a focus on stores of value How money supply growth compared to real economic output growth hasn’t been this out of sync since inflationary periods in the 1970s and 1980s The “Inflation Race” - a list of 8 potential inflation hedges The four categories by which a store of value can be judged: purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity, portability A ranked look at bitcoin, gold, fiat, and financial assets in the context of those four categories.

The week's complete show run in one convenient file. Monday | Why Buffett’s Bearishness Should End V-Shaped Recovery Talk Tuesday | Why Crypto Matters for Financial Inclusion, Feat. Celo's Marek Olszewski Wednesday | Surveying the Carnage: How Real Estate, Travel and Music Are Faring During the Crisis Thursday | 9 Reasons Why Bitcoin Has Never Been Stronger Going Into A Halving Friday | The Rise Of The Dollar Killers, Feat. Niall Ferguson & More [Money Reimagined - Part 2]

Libra, the Euro, China's DCEP. Do any of these currencies have a chance at displacing the dollar in the global order? Or is it possible - as Niall Ferguson suggestions on this episode - that we're poised to shift back to a multipollar, multi-currency world? The second in our four-part documentary micro-series on the battle for the future of money. Also featuring Michael Casey, Matthew Graham, Katherine Wu, Peter Zeihan, Luke Gromen and more. Music by DJ J-Scrilla "Faith In My Money (Money Printer Go Brrr)" from the new “Sound Money” album.

The bitcoin halving is just a few days away and the growing excitement is palpable. On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW argues that the excitement is also legitimate, and looks at nine reasons why bitcoin has never been stronger going into one of its every-four-year issuance reductions: Price Hash rate Mining competition Accessibility and Services Infrastructure Institutional awareness and participation Narrative relevance Perceived and real resilience Lindy effects Oh, and let’s not forget. Paul Tudor Jones just disclosed that he is invested in bitcoin and sees it as a hedge against ‘great monetary inflation’

The second order effects of the COVID-19 crisis are here, and they’re painful. In this episode, NLW looks at how COVID is impacting three industries: Travel and tourism 100m lost jobs expected globally $2.7 in lost GDP Airbnb lays of 25% of employees Music & Concerts From a record $12.2B concert year to a loss of $9B Expectations of concert prohibition lasting up to two years Industry organizing to be included in relief Real Estate Commercial real estate expecting 2.5% default rate for 5+ years Negotiations around sales-based payment instead of traditional rent Residential sees cratering demand but home prices remain up year over year

Around the world, an estimated 1.7 billion people remain unbanked and lacking access to high quality financial services. Some projects see cryptocurrency as an answer. In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW speaks with Celo co-founder Marek Olszewski about: How Celo was designed differently to address financial inclusion as a primary use case The problems with centralized approaches to mobile money like m-pesa Why true financial inclusions solutions must be permissionless Why technology design isn’t enough and projects that seek to gain adoption require ground up go to market strategies The impact of Libra’s launch on the “bank the unbanked” narrative How the COVID-19 crisis has changed the narrative around and demand for stabelcoins globally

One month after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, Warren Buffett wrote an Op-Ed saying that he was buying stocks. Yet during the Coronavirus crisis, he is sitting firmly on the sidelines. On Saturday night, the “Oracle of Omaha” spoke for 4.5 hours in the first ever virtual version of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting - an event which some have called the “Woodstock of Capitalism.” On this episode, NLW examines some of the key topics of the presentation, including: Why Berkshire sold their entire $6.5B stake in the airline industry Why they were sitting on $137B in cash Why they haven’t made any investments How the Fed gave companies better terms than they were willing to It was hard not to watch the presentation and conclude that Buffett feels that there are simply too many unknowns in the world going forward to feel comfortable doing much in the market right now.

The week's episodes in one long run. Monday | Bitcoin vs. QE Infinity: The 4 Archetypes Of The Halving Debate Tuesday | The Mass Surveillance Machine, Feat. Maya Zehavi Wednesday | When Currencies Fail: A Primer on the Crisis in Lebanon Thursday | From Corrupt To Broken: An Insider’s Analysis Of The Fed, feat. Danielle DiMartino Booth Friday | Why The Dollar Has Never Been Stronger Or More Set Up To Fail [Money Reimagined Pt. 1]

The first of a 4-part docu-style series on the battle for the future of money. In this first episode of Money Reimagined, we look at: Why US markets took so long to react How the stock market became a political utility Why, even before the crisis, “increasingly exotic forms of quantitative easing” were inevitable Why the bailouts have some investors accusing our entire market of being cronyism rather than capitalism What unlimited money printing means for the US dollar. Featuring insight from Matthew Graham, Caitlin Long, Scott Melker, Kevin Kelly, Ben Hunt, Luke Gromen, Travis Kling, Mark Yusko, Anthony Pompliano, Jared Dillian, Dave Portnoy, Michael Casey, Preston Pysh, Peter Zeihan Music by DJ J-Scrilla "Faith In My Money (Money Printer Go Brrr)" from the “Sound Money” album.

Danielle DiMartino Booth is the CEO and Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence. Before that, however, after correctly predicting the mortgage meltdown, she was called upon to serve and spent 9 years as an advisor to the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. That experience led her to write “Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.” In this episode, Danielle and NLW discuss: How the Fed went from simply corrupt to corrupt and broken Why we’ve been living through the largest experiment in monetary policy history Why interest rates are the lowest they’ve been in 5000 years Why COVID-19 was the pin, not the balloon Why current Fed action compromises the Fed’s independence Why the market structure incentivizes consumption and risk investment over savings Why risk investments have ceased to be risky because of Fed backstopping Why a key concern going forward is a second wave of COVID-19 layoffs in industries beyond the obviously impacted

The Lebanese pound has lost at least 50% of its value since last year. 220,000 people have lost their jobs. Food prices are up 58%. An estimated 75% of the population needs assistance of some kind. And over the last two nights, at least a dozen banks have been torched by protesters. The catalyst? Not coronavirus, but a massive dollar shortage that is destroying an economy that relies on inflows of USD to function. In this episode, NLW breaks down how Lebanon models what it looks like for a currency to fail, and why this likely isn’t the last emerging market currency to experience a similar crisis in the months to come.

As the COVID-19 crisis rages, it takes on new economic and political dimensions. The frames for many of the most important questions for the next decade are being set now, in this moment. On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW is joined by Maya Zehavi, a long-time blockchain consultant known for her insightful domain-spanning takes. They discuss: How the COVID-19 health crisis overlapped with a political crisis in Zehavi’s home country of Israel Why governments use times of crisis to take extraordinary powers How contact tracing apps have become a battleground for mass surveillance Why the shift to localism from globalism creates new challenges How the problems distributing stimulus are shaping the conversation around central bank digital currencies

The bitcoin halving is just two weeks away. While the COVID-19 crisis pushed attention off the momentous event for a while, the discussion is coming back fast and strong. Google searches for the bitcoin halving already exceeding the 2016 peak, despite almost no mainstream media coverage. In this episode, NLW breaks down 4 archetypes of people within the larger debates around the bitcoin halving: Speculators - those who flock to Twitter to engage in endless rounds of debate around the efficient market hypothesis and whether the halving is priced in or not Fundamentals - those who believe that what matters about the halving isn’t the short-term price movement but the fundamental decrease in supply Miners - those who have to actually figure out how to make their business model work in the context of reduced issuance Symbologists - those who are focusing on the significance of bitcoin’s issuance reduction coinciding with QE infinity

The full week's content in a single convenient long-run episode. Monday | Bearish or Bullish? What Oil, DeFi Hacks and Cash Hoarding Tell Us About Markets Tuesday | From Proof of Health to UBI: How Everything Changes Post COVID-19, Feat. Joe McCann Wednesday | The History of the Dollar System From Bretton Woods to QE Infinity, Feat. Luke Gromen Thursday | We Don’t Need Big Brother To Beat This Virus Friday | Why Bitcoin Is Freedom Money, Feat. Yan Pritzker

Yan Pritzker is the CTO and cofounder of Swan Bitcoin, an automated bitcoin only investing app aiming to be the best onramp to bitcoin. He is also the author of Inventing Bitcoin. On this episode, he and NLW discuss: How immigrating from the Soviet Union taught Yan about capital controls Buying bitcoin at $30 in 2011 Why the type of capital available shapes what type of startups entrepreneurs found Why venture capitals focused investments away from bitcoin The emergence of a bitcoin only startup scene Starting a startup during the COVID-19 crisis Why bitcoin’s scarcity is its most important property

One of the key aspects of most plans to reopen the economy is digital contact tracing. This would be an apparatus whereby mobile phones kept track of the other mobile phones they had been physically proximate to, so that if someone were diagnosed with COVID-19, the at-risk people they had been in contact with could be notified. Apple and Google have proposed one plan while a European consortium is working on another. At the center of the issue is whether contact tracing can be done in a way that doesn’t violate privacy and doesn’t open a Pandora’s box of new issues around the data governments have on their citizens. Today’s episode of The Breakdown explores the crypto community’s response to contact tracing and why we don’t need big brother to beat the virus.

QE infinity. Corporate bailouts. Nudging UBI. The incredible economic phenomena going on now didn’t happen out of the blue. They are the byproducts of a key events spread across the 70 year history of the US dollar led global monetary system. Luke Gromen is the founder of Forest From The Trees, a macro/thematic research firm. In this episode, Luke provides a TL;DR on those key events that got us to where we are today, including: Bretton Woods and why the world went on a USD-based system rather than Keynes idea for a non-sovereign ‘bancor’ world reserve currency The move to the Petrodollar in the 1970s The financialization of commodities that started in the 1980s The monetary policy vacuum after the Cold War ended How a shift in executive compensation rules led to many of today’s problems with Wall Street The export of Treasury Bills as a business model The fallout of 2008 globally and domestically The end of Treasury Bill buying in 2014 Why the Fed is the only sugar daddy left

Joe McCann currently works in cloud and AI at Microsoft and has spent decades in tech, crypto, and open source communities. He recently wrote a piece called “A New, New World Order” all about the second and third order effects of Covid-19. In this conversation, Joe and NLW discuss: Localism and the beginning of the end of globalization The return of domestic manufacturing The ‘Roaring 20s’ of Inflation The inevitability of Universal Basic Income in response to inflation QE infinity and the US’s nationalization by proxy National healthcare as national security and why microbes are this decade’s terrorists Proof of health, and why it’s likely to be implemented on a blockchain

It’s hard to look at recent news from both crypto and traditional markets and not feel like we’re getting pretty mixed signals. Stocks have been recovering, but oil is hitting historic lows. DeFi suffers a major hack over the weekend, but Coinbase sees a major spike in $1200 transactions right as $1200 stimulus checks hit. Cash hoarding is giving pretence for eliminating privacy-preserving money, but one of the world’s most successful hedge funds has authorized investment in bitcoin futures. On today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW separates bullish from bearish signals for the strange in between times.

The entire week's shows in one convenient episode Monday | Off Tuesday | The $20,000 Human IPO & 5 Other Stories That Have Nothing to Do With COVID-19 Wednesday | What the Economy Will Look Like 6 Months From Now, Feat. Ryan Selkis Thursday | Libra vs. China's DCEP? The Battle for the Future of Money Heats Up Friday | Why Money Is Losing Its Meaning, feat. Jared Dillian

Bitcoiners are particularly sensitive to Fed intervention in markets, but the degree to which the Fed is willing to print to backstop basically all risk is drawing the attention of even normal market participants. On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW is joined by Jared Dillian, market analyst, contrarian, and editor of The Daily Dirt Nap. They discuss: What ‘safe haven’ means in today’s climate How Jared became a bitcoin believer after being a skeptic Why in an MMT world, taxation policy will be driven by ideology not practicality Why money is losing its meaning

This week saw the latest salvos in the battle for the future of money. Libra announced that it would be moving away from a single currency that was backed by a basket of national currency to a model of numerous individual fiat-pegged currencies. While the original model was akin to a disruptive implementation of John Maynard Keynes original concept for a global basket currency (which he called a “bancor”), this model seems more to position Libra to help existing central banks digitize their currencies. China meanwhile steamed forward with its digital currency and blockchain plans. Screenshots of an app from the Agricultural Bank of China show how the DCEP digital currency is currently being tested, giving us insight into functionality, geographies and players involved. China also announced the 71 members of its National Blockchain Council, as well as went live with their Blockchain Service Network. The BSN in particular has potential significance on a world scale as China tries to build and control a key piece of global digital infrastructure.

As week (one million, it seems) of the COVID-19 lockdown plods on, many are wondering what the economy will look like on the other side. Ryan Selkis is the CEO and founder of Messari. He was one of the earliest voices in crypto to sound the alarm on the potential impact of COVID-19 not only on the health system but on the economy. In this episode of The Breakdown, Ryan joins @NLW to discuss: Why the markets right now represent an economic and psychological relief rally What it takes to reopen the economy Why voluntary, privacy preserving contact tracing is part of the solution Why crypto has performed largely as Ryan expected

Even as the market tries to make sense of everything happen (or ignores it, depending on your perspective), crypto keeps on plugging along. Today on The Breakdown @NLW looks at 5 recent crypto stories that are representative of larger trends, including: Coinbase Custody enabling staking for Polkadot DOTs A Telegram-focused exchange shutting down due to regulatory compliance costs A $20k Human IPO on Ethereum Shapeshift acquires Portis & other crypto M&A A G20 report on the threat of Stablecoins

The full week's episodes in one convenient file: Monday | How Covid-19's Second Order Effects Could Make Humanity Stronger, feat. Emerson Spartz Tuesday | Exit Plans, Premature Rallies and Frontline Heroes feat. Ben Hunt Wednesday | The Questions We're Not Allowed to Ask, Feat. Hidden Forces' Demetri Kofinas Thursday | Rebuilding the Resilience Economy, Feat. Anthony Pompliano Friday | Quantitative Tightening and 5 Key Questions for Our Changing World

As we wrap up another crazy week - 6.6m more jobless claims, $2.3T more in stimulus - this episode offers a few key themes and questions for bitcoiners and the crypto-minded to think about over the long Easter weekend: Crypto-dollarization: why money is pouring into USD stablecoins and how it could create a future onramp to bitcoin ‘Quantitative Tightening’: why a new brand for the bitcoin halving could help us better capture a unique narrative moment What it takes to get the economy back to work: beyong the political hemming and hawking, how can we force the real, nuanced conversation of turning the economy back on? What it takes to rebuild as a Resilience Economy - and how can bottoms-up networks get started now? Moments of transition are moments of leverage: what opportunities can each of us take advantage of?

As host of the Pomp Podcast, author of the daily Off The Chain newsletter, and founder partner at Morgan Creek Digital Assets, Anthony Pompliano is one of the best known media personalities and investors in the crypto industry. In this episode, he and @NLW discuss: The Fed’s just announced $2.3 trillion stimulus package - including the authorization to buy junk bonds Why media and trust have desiccated to their lowest levels ever The lack of a plan to restart the economy Why Bitcoin was sold in last months larger market sell off Why smart institutional investors are looking to bitcoin as a hedge when the deflationary environment turns inflationary Why companies have to be allowed to fail to increase resilience Why the best way to build a resilience economy is to put money in the hands of entrepreneurs and small businesses

Demetri Kofinas is the host of Hidden Forces, a popular podcast that examines markets through the lens of large patterns of change. On this episode, Demetri and @NLW discuss: How the politicization of the Coronavirus crisis has undermined smart action How media incentivizes extreme opinions regardless of underlying expertise What conversations are we not having around Coronavirus - in particular in terms of second order effects Why we’ve barely begun to discuss the plan for turning the economy back on