The Breakdown

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW discusses: Traditional markets: The tension between vaccine optimism and a growing national wave of economy-disrupting lockdowns Regulatory landscape: Crypto ally Brian Brooks nominated for full term at OCC while SEC Chair Jay Clayton steps down early Bitcoin Miners: Sold out until Spring Celebrities and Financiers coming to the Bitcoin space https://twitter.com/Maisie_Williams/status/1328428879334297600 https://twitter.com/RicardoBSalinas/status/1328850136290775041

Earlier this week, investor Nic Carter published a piece called “Nine Bitcoin Charts Already at All-Time Highs” showing just how far bitcoin had come and how fundamentally bullish this quiet run-up was. In this piece, NLW goes over those metrics that have achieved all-time highs, and adds one more that happened after Nic published his piece. The metrics include: Addresses with a balance of $10 or more Open interest on CME bitcoin futures Realized capitalization Bitcoin options open interest Bitcoin priced in Turkish lira Bitcoin held by Grayscale Stablecoin free float Silvergate’s settlement network Growth of crypto-native credit Market Capitalization

Today on the Brief: Markets fight to remain optimistic Jobless claims rise for the first time in five weeks China borrows at negative rates for the first time Our main discussion: a crypto ally as top bank regulator? Brian Brooks was an executive at Coinbase when he was tapped by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to be the number two at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the nation’s main bank regulator. Within two months he was acting Comptroller and now Brooks has been nominated for a full term. In his short tenure, he has given banks the OK to provide custody of crypto and banking services to stablecoin issuers. In so doing, he has aroused the ire of congressional Democrats, who have accused him of acting too quickly and unilaterally on crypto. In this discussion, NLW breaks down Brooks’ time at the OCC and asks whether he’s likely to be confirmed before the next administration early next year.

Vijay Boyapati’s “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin” is one of the most influential articles in the history of the industry – even being assigned reading from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor as he tried to convince his board on the merits of what would become its big bitcoin move. In this conversation with NLW, Vijay discusses his recent thinking around four valuation frameworks that help us understand 1) how people see bitcoin’s upside potential and 2) the likely values they suggest for bitcoin. We also discuss why state-level attacks are Vijay’s biggest concern for bitcoin’s future.

Today on the Brief: Tesla to join S&P 500 Airbnb files for IPO The Mooch wants crypto Our main discussion: HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO. The 2017-2018 bull run was driven by ICO mania and a relentless get-richism that was nothing if not short-term. As bitcoin passes $17,000 and questions of looming all-time highs start to make their way into mainstream press, it is a very new set of actors and a new set of thinking that is driving this movement.

Today on the Brief: Moderna trial success drives markets up New all-time high in negative-yielding debt Jay Clayton to leave SEC Our main discussion: BTC $318,000 in December 2021? That’s the prediction of one Citibank exec in a report called “Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold” sent last week to institutional clients. In this episode, NLW breaks down the report, including the macro justification that sets the stage as well as the technical analysis that led to these numbers. Ultimately, he argues that what matters isn’t the report’s predictions, but the fact that its very existence suggests a shifting narrative for institutional buyers.

On this week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads former IMF chief and current Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s latest Op-Ed, “The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm” in Project Syndicate.

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at bitcoin’s surge past $16,000. Additionally, he explores some recent FUD from Ray Dalio, which NLW argues seems strangely locked in years-old narratives.

Today on the Brief: Christine Lagarde’s digital euro hunch Deutsche Bank CBDC note COVID-19 resurgent Our main discussion: PayPal is rolling out crypto to all its users and increasing transaction limits from $10,000 to $20,000. In this episode, NLW breaks down the community response to the news, including an interesting discussion of whether the company’s BitLicense requires PayPal to hold 1:1 all the BTC its customers pay for.

Robby Gutmann is the co-founder of Stone Ridge Holdings Group, a $10 billion alternative asset manager and co-founder and CEO of NYDIG, the group’s bitcoin subsidiary. In this first-ever podcast conversation, Gutmann discusses: Buying his first bitcoin from Craigslist in 2010 The personal and professional experiences that drove his team to bitcoin Why bitcoin fits the firm's founding principle of financial security for all A set of key trends driving institutional investors and fiduciaries/asset managers into the bitcoin space Why the coming year is poised for even more aggressive expansion of the investor market for bitcoin

Yele Bademosi is CEO at Bundle social payments app and the founder of investment firm microtraction. Akin Sawyerr is involved across the industry and leads operations at BarnBridge. Over the course of October 2020, the world’s attention became firmly fixed on a growing movement in Nigeria. With the hashtag #EndSARS, the movement was, on the one hand, about addressing police brutality. On the other hand, as our guests discuss, it was a broader awakening and a demand for generational economic opportunity. At one point, even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey called for people to donate bitcoin to help the movement. In this conversation, Yele and Akin discuss: The state of the economy in Nigeria leading into the protests Generational differences in political action Why the #EndSARS protests exploded into action in October Why the movement turned to bitcoin to avoid bank confiscation How crypto can play a role in a brighter future Find our guests online: Yele Bademosi - twitter.com/YeleBademosi Akin Sawyerr - twitter.com/AkinSawyerr

Today on the Brief: Was Monday’s stock rally overdone? Lebanon to launch digital currency 3 reasons BTC has rallied 60%+ in two months Our main discussion: Stan Druckenmiller, Bitcoin Bull. A few months ago, Stan Druckenmiller told CNBC that he could imagine inflation of 5%–10%. Yesterday, he returned to the network to discuss why bitcoin had captured his attention as a potential hedge.

Today on the Brief: GRIN gets 51% attacked Crypto trading volume down 25.8% in October How the market is receiving Joe Biden Our main discussion: The stock market soars on promising Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials. The S&P 500 and DJIA hit new all-time highs after Pfizer announced its experimental vaccine had prevented COVID-19 in 90% of patients. Travel stocks soared, work from home stocks suffered and safe havens fell. In this episode, NLW explores the shifting market sentiment, as well as what it means for bitcoin.

Today’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of Andy Mukherjee’s piece: “Why Emerging Markets Are Wary of a Modern Monetary Fix”. The argument is that while Western governments debate just how far we can take the idea of money printing without paying a dubious price, for emerging-market governments there simply isn’t the same capacity to print their way out of problems.

Hany Rashwan is the CEO of Amun/21Shares, the creator of a variety of publicly traded crypto products with over $100 million assets under management. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: How he was introduced to bitcoin by Tim Draper in 2012 How the Egyptian revolution and challenges that followed influenced his thinking How a 48% overnight devaluation of the Egyptian pound created the “aha” moment around bitcoin How bitcoin could become the global reserve currency Find our guest online: Twitter: twitter.com/hany Website: 21shares.com

Emil Kalinowski is the host of “Making Sense/Eurodollar University” collaborations with Jeff Snider. In this illuminating conversation, he and NLW discuss: How the global monetary order changed over the last 50 years The exact moment the world demonstrated it had too little money Why bitcoin and MMT are competing to shape the next generation of monetary thinking Why a big crash is coming, but we’ll be better on the other side

As the U.S. election picture starts to become more clear, bitcoin has smashed through $15,000 – its highest price since 2017’s record-breaking run. Alongside the price action has come a wave of mainstream media coverage. In this special he-was-supposed-to-be-on-vacation episode, NLW breaks down Twitter’s response and shares interpretations, including: “Quietest bull run ever” Stimulus on the way Halving bull redemption Death of the nation-state Start of a reflexive cycle It feels real

Jim Epstein is the executive editor of Reason TV and podcasts, and the producer of the recent documentary “Cypherpunks Write Code.” In this conversation, he gives NLW a behind the scenes look on the interviews and conversations that went into the documentary, including how the cypherpunks started, schisms in the movement, and how the movement lives on today. Watch “Cypherpunks Write Code” Part 1: youtu.be/YWh6Yzr12iQ Part 2: youtu.be/n4qonsvSgAg Part 3: youtu.be/lv8OFSWZkGs Part 4: youtu.be/HDKQulqVCQg Find Jim online: twitter.com/jimepstein

Jacob Goldstein is one of the hosts of NPR’s Planet Money. He is also the author of the new book, “Money: A True Story of a Made Up Thing.” In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: How China invented paper money and then forgot about it for centuries Why the invention of the lightbulb was a pivotal money history moment How money market funds set the stage for the Great Financial Crisis Where bitcoin fits in the world that comes next: without cash, without banks and with government printing Find our guest online: Twitter: twitter.com/jacobgoldstein

Today on the Brief: The digital euro is closer than ever Checking in on European COVID-19 lockdowns Economic events this week that aren’t the election Our main discussion: Which U.S. election outcome is better for bitcoin? Poll: https://twitter.com/nlw/status/1320884275110137863 After a surprisingly close Twitter poll with more than 1,600 respondents answering the question “Is Trump or Biden better for bitcoin?”, NLW breaks down the most common themes, including: The Senate matters more Anti-encryption history And of course… Honey Badger Don’t Care

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW diverts from our normal opinion and long-form essay to pursue Grayscale’s recent investor reports. In its survey of investors, Grayscale found more interest in bitcoin investing than ever before, with a significant amount of the growth in interest being driven by economic and monetary policy following the coronavirus pandemic. scribd.com/document/481729535/Grayscale-2020-Bitcoin-Investor-Study

On this week’s weekly recap, NLW looks at: Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of a week where many investors went risk off, causing a drop in stocks and gold JPMorgan’s dramatic three-year attitude shift around bitcoin and crypto Iran stockpiling bitcoin to be able to pay for imports A new round of COVID-19 lockdowns and the stimulus that will follow

One of the most powerful aspects of bitcoin is its mythology. In this episode, NLW explores the 12th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper and the choices that went into its release date. Whether it was something to do with the Reformation or an allusion to the longstanding pagan tradition of Samhain, the one thing that’s clear is the choice adds all the more mystique to bitcoin’s incredible origins.

Today on the Brief: FTX launches equities trading Avanti gets Wyoming bank charter France locks down and ECB intimates new stimulus Our main discussion: GDP growth report The Department of Commerce released its Q3 GDP numbers. Touted as record growth, this is actually a much more complicated story. In this episode, NLW breaks down what the numbers tell us and what they don’t, and why we should be more focused on understanding long-term consumer behavior shifts than short-term numbers.

Today on the Brief: Section 230 hearing with social media CEOs in Washington D.C. Bitwise now has more than $100 million AUM Trump website defaced with Monero request Our main discussion: Markets go risk-off. With rising fear of COVID-19 lockdowns, everything from stocks to oil to gold and, yes, even bitcoin is down on the day. The important question is whether this is a short-term volatility phenomenon or part of a larger systemic shift.

Today on the Brief: Stocks down; bitcoin up Consumer confidence shaky as baking supplies demand grows 3,400% Bank for International Settlements and Swiss central bank to test CBDC this year Our main discussion: JPM Coin. Initially announced in February 2019, JPMorgan’s JPM Coin is being launched for commercial use. In this episode, NLW looks at: The history of private currencies in the U.S. Why Libra was a starting gun for both governments and other private corporations How JPMorgan intends to make money from JPM Coin Why other investment banks might follow

Today on the Brief: Turkey’s real inflation rate 3x official number Hot new DeFi protocol Harvest Financial hacked Bitcoin whales hit largest number since 2016 Our main conversation is about the rise of a new wave of COVID-19 and the economic fallout we’re still trying to address. NLW discusses why we’re starting this next wave more emotionally drained, politically divided and economically fragile than we were in March.

For this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads two selections from CoinDesk’s op-ed section: CBDCs Are Evolution, not Revolution - Benoit Coeure The US Risks Getting Left Behind on CBDCs - JP Schnapper-Casteras & Misha Guttentag

On this week’s Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at: The initial price action that started the week Debates about whether BTC was thriving at the expense of alts and DeFi The PayPal news News of more public companies putting treasury reserves into BTC Paul Tudor Jones’ optimistic take on the human ingenuity driving bitcoin’s success

Today on the Brief: DOJ crypto enforcement a “disaster” for privacy Ant’s blockchain tools pre-IPO Better news around jobless claims Our main discussion: fiat failures, 2020 edition. In this episode, NLW looks at a raft of geographies in which bitcoin has recently reached all-time highs, priced in the local currency. The story, he says, is about fiats floundering more than mispriced local bitcoin. Special focus on economic happenings in Brazil, Argentina and Turkey.

Matt Stoller works with the American Economic Liberties Project and is the author of “Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy” as well as the popular Substack newsletter “BIG.” In this conversation, he and NLW discuss the history of American antitrust sentiment and politics including: The origins of antitrust sentiment How the “Watergate Babies” generation of Democrats turned away from antitrust sentiment How the 1990s shifted power in favor of corporates and tech Why the 2008-2009 crisis was a seminal moment in our attitudes towards big finance The significance of the new antitrust case against Google Find our guest online: Twitter: @matthewstoller Web: mattstoller.com

Huge news broke this morning as PayPal announced it would be offering buying, selling and eventually merchant payments for bitcoin and other cryptos across its network. In this late-breaking Breakdown episode, NLW explores: The specifics of the news Why the scale, precedent and normalization are hugely bullish What some skeptics are saying Why it’s significant PayPal is focused on the coming central bank digital currency era

Today on the Brief: DOJ files biggest antitrust case in two decades against Google Goldman Sachs’ 1MDB settlement LINE’s new CBDC platform Our main discussion: bulls vs. bears as bitcoin passes $12K Someone recently tweeted, “Bitcoin price has never been this high with such bearish sentiment.” On this episode, NLW looks at the bullish case (growth in open interest on CME backed by strong macro narrative around stimulus) and bearish case ($12K sell wall and bleeding from alts and DeFi).

Today on the Brief: Chinese citizens less than impressed with DCEP trial Is Filecoin the “Titanic” of ICOs? Mnuchin, Pelosi go one more round on stimulus Our main discussion: A new Bretton Woods moment? In a recent speech, the International Monetary Fund argued that the time to fundamentally re-evaluate the global economic order is here. Goldbugs see the potential to return to the gold standard, bitcoiners anticipate ever-growing stimulus and macro observers are betting on massive disruptions in the wake of central bank digital currencies.

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads: “Capital Allocation & Risk Asset Ramifications in a 0% Interest Rate World” The piece examines how different asset classes – from stocks to bonds to bitcoin and beyond – fare in the context of a world where the Federal Reserve is determined to keep interest rates at or near zero for years to come.

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at: Growth in the institutional investment space in crypto A new 10,000 BTC treasury announcement Reports from the Bank for International Settlements, G20, WEF, IMF and more around central bank digital currencies A National Security Council report labeling distributed ledger technology key for national security

Today’s Breakdown is a conversation with Andre Anjos – aka RAC, a Grammy Award-winning recording artist and music entrepreneur. He and NLW discuss: Starting the “Remix Artist Collective” as a business Evolving from remixing to performing artist The challenges and trade-offs of working with major labels How the music industry beat back technology innovation where other industries failed How NFTs, tokens and other crypto innovations are opening up truly free markets for music and culture Find our guest online: Twitter: @RAC Web: rac.fm

Today on the Brief: Initial jobless claims rise to highest level since August BTC as a DeFi reserve asset Twitter reactions as Filecoin goes live Our main discussion focuses on the convergence of the crypto and public markets. NLW looks at: Narratives of bitcoin’s correlations to stocks Growing overlap of retail and institutional traders SPACs and public crypto companies Bitcoin treasuries Geopolitical intrigue around ANT Financial

Today on the Brief: Bitcoin hashrate at all-time highs Record number of large companies lose money during the pandemic JPMorgan releases research note on bitcoin Our main discussion: Stone Ridge Holdings Group discloses $114 million in bitcoin treasury assets. NLW digs into what Stone Ridge is, why it spun off New York Digital Investments Group (NYDIG) and how the company has quietly built itself into a serious player in the institutional crypto asset space.

Today on the Brief: Is the “blue wave” Democrat victory narrative in the presidential election starting to shake up Wall Street? Johnson & Johnson pause COVID-19 vaccine trial 1000 Satoshi-era bitcoins are on the move Our main discussion: The world’s central banks are moving quickly on digital currencies. NLW looks at a slew of recent news showing how much of a priority CBDCs are becoming: A report from the Bank for International Settlements and seven other central banks setting design principles for CBDCs A G20 regulatory standards framework A forthcoming OECD tax reporting framework One need only look at the increasingly speedy rollout of China’s DCEP to understand why this has become a major priority for central banks everywhere.

Today on the Brief: Market rally to highest point in six weeks BTC and ETH up in part on Grayscale ETH trust becoming an SEC reporting company (Grayscale, like CoinDesk, is a unit of DCG.) CBDCs (and CBDC skepticism) on the rise Our main discussion: How markets are trading the U.S. presidential election in November. A look at what different stock and other market preferences suggests about who Wall Street expects to win, including: Energy Private prisons Student loans Health care Infrastructure Dollar Bitcoin

Today on Long Reads Sunday, a reading of Lyn Alden’s piece for CoinDesk: “Bitcoin Correlations Depend on What Phase It Is In” In it, Lyn argues that bitcoin’s correlation patterns are, in part, reliant on where bitcoin finds itself in its own cycles of expansion or consolidation.

On this week’s Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at a cross-section of regulatory news, including: CFTC and DOJ action against BitMEX and its leadership The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s ban of crypto derivative products for retail investors The DOJ’s new cryptocurrency enforcement framework NLW discusses why these might reflect a new moment in crypto history, what it means for current builders in bitcoin and DeFi, and why recruiting corporate allies like Square will become more important than ever.

Forbes called her “the newest superstar investor,” and it’s not hard to see why. Cathie Wood is radically disrupting the way money is allocated. Fighting the rise of passive – what she calls the “greatest misallocation of resources in history” – Wood’s funds are actively managed exchange-traded funds that give investors exposure to public companies in key areas of innovation. In this conversation, NLW and Wood discuss: Why she had conviction in Tesla before the market caught up Why her fund offered the first bitcoin investment opportunities to Wall Street Why it doesn’t hire traditional Wall Street analysts Why it gives away all research for free Why it shares the trades made in a completely open-source way ARK’s recent Bitcoin Investment Thesis white paper What the prospects are for innovation in 2021 Find our guest online: Twitter: @CathieDWood Web: ark-invest.com

A special breaking edition of The Breakdown follows the market’s reaction to Square’s surprise $50 million bitcoin investment. NLW breaks down the foundations for the investment, including: 2020’s alignment between the bitcoin narrative and structural economic realities An increase in bitcoin’s perceived resilience The precedent set by MicroStrategy He also discusses the market’s reaction, from the (potential) connection to Coinbase’s “apolitical” stance from last week to the notion of Square intentionally setting a framework others can follow.

Today on the Brief: Stimulus talk shutdown spooks markets House recommends antitrust actions but likely to get nowhere CBDC trial results from China Our main discussion is with trader and entrepreneur Qiao Wang. In this conversation, NLW and Qiao discuss: Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of a barrage of bad news Why DeFi is a natural next step from the foundation bitcoin has built How bitcoin could end up the reserve asset for DeFi Why regulation is the greatest threat to the space

Today on the Brief: John McAfee arrested in Spain BTC addresses added spikes to two-year high A new election-market narrative emerges Our main discussion: The U.K. has banned crypto derivatives. Just days after the U.S. announced significant action involving BitMEX, the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority has made its own move to stop crypto derivatives. In this episode, NLW breaks down what actually happened, and looks at the reactions from the crypto industry including: Accusations of hypocrisy Skepticism of enforceability Why it might actually be good for bitcoin

Today on the Brief: Markets gain as Pres. Trump’s condition stabilizes SEC Chairman Clayton sees future where all stocks are tokenized Uniswap had more volume than Coinbase in September Our main discussion: central bank coins and financial privacy. The EU recently released a new research paper on a possible digital euro. Like many other official central bank reports, it assumes there is no possibility of an anonymous digital bank currency. NLW dissects arguments from people including JP Koning and CoinCenter’s Jerry Brito on why this shouldn’t be true.

Today’s Long Reads Sunday selection is “How To Avoid Paying the Cruelest Tax: Inflation” from the Wall Street Journal. NLW argues the piece reflects a changing conversation in mainstream financial circles about the possibility of inflation on the other side of new Federal Reserve policy.

A recap of September, which NLW calls a transitional month between the post-lockdown excitement of the summer and the growing macro insecurity around second wave fears and election volatility. Featuring some of the most interesting insights from our guests, including: Luke Gromen on the four options for countries that can’t pay their debts Tavi Costa on the Fed’s new “mandate” to keep asset prices high Raoul Pal on why “monetary policy is over” Sven Henrich on the ever-weakening economic cycle Corey Hoffstein on the fundamental supply-demand mismatch that exacerbates exogenous shocks Michael Saylor on why he moved his company’s cash reserves to bitcoin