The Breakdown

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert are one of bitcoin's most dynamic duos, producing a variety of content, including the Orange Pill podcast. In this discussion with NLW, they talk about why this year was transformational in terms of how people view the aging economic system, and why 2021 is poised to mint even more new bitcoiners. Find our guests online: @maxkeiser @stacyherbert

Raoul Pal is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision and one of the leading voices in modern macroeconomic discussions. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss bitcoin's monster 2020, how DeFi compares to ICOs, and why we should be paying more attention to central bank digital currencies. Find our guest online: @RaoulGMI The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW starts with the latest essay by Jeffrey Snider, “A Nonsensical Jumble of Misused Words Requires Discussion” and then with Caitlin Long’s followup thread, putting the discussion of rehypothecation in the bitcoin context.

On March 12, as the U.S. government struggled to wrap its head around the emerging COVID-19 pandemic and markets floundered, bitcoin had one of its worst days in history, crashing by thousands of dollars and even hitting below $4,000 on some exchanges. That evening, NLW and podcaster Preston Pysh recorded a conversation about bitcoin, central banks and what happens when currencies fail. Nine months later, the conversation is as salient as ever. Find our guest online: @PrestonPysh

Balaji Srinivasan is an angel investor and entrepreneur, the former CTO of Coinbase, a former General Partner at Andressen Horowitz and more. In this wide-ranging conversation with NLW, he discusses: How networks are taking a power role once reserved for god and the state Why pre-internet institutions will not survive the internet Why bitcoin at $1 million is a global government Woke capital vs. communist capital vs. crypto capital The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

With so much focus on bitcoin’s record-setting price run, a number of huge (and hugely bullish) stories have gotten comparatively short shrift. In this episode, NLW looks at: Ruffer LLP’s $744 million bitcoin buy Hedge Funder Alan Howard and One River’s $1 billion digital assets bet Northern Trust getting into crypto custody Guggenheim Partners’ CIO calling for $400,000 BTC CoinDesk sister company Grayscale as the fastest-growing asset manager in history? The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

After weeks of flirting with all-time highs, bitcoin has broken through the most significant psychological barrier: $20,000. In today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW looks at why the moment is so significant, arguing: Bitcoin is an incentive design system where price drives more benefits than financial gain The validation of retail traders and more recent institutional investors creates an even stronger group of evangelists The psychological price barrier is likely to increase FOMO among those on the sidelines The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Ben Hunt is the founder of Second Foundation Partners and lead author of Epsilon Theory. Alex Gladstein is the chief strategy officer at the Human Rights Foundation. In this conversation, they discuss one of the most important burgeoning topics of the year: In a world where bitcoin goes mainstream with traditional financial institutions, can it keep its more renegade spirit? More important, can it keep its more renegade features such as permissionless access and censorship resistance? Ben and Alex join for a good faith, spirited discussion of whether the bitcoin we know today will be preserved or whether it is doomed to be co-opted by the financial powers that be. Find our guests on social: Ben: @EpsilonTheory Alex: @Gladstein The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Today on the Brief: First COVID-19 vaccines roll out in the U.S. Are IPOs the new ICOs? U.S. Treasury and other federal departments hacked Our main discussion: A massive new category of bitcoin demand? Last week, when MassMutual announced its $100 million buy, NLW explored whether it would be the beginning of a trend for other insurance companies. A recent note from JPMorgan analysts suggests that even a 1% allocation by that category of company in major markets in the U.S., Europe and Japan could represent $600 billion of new demand. NLW also discusses recent comments from long-term institutional bitcoin and crypto bulls including Chamath Palihapitiya and Abigail Johnson. The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

This week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday is a reading of “How Much Debt Is Too Much?” by Raghuram Rajan on Project Syndicate. In it, the author explores the shifting conventional wisdom on national debt and worries that countries may reach their limit far earlier than they think.

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at the brewing battle to be the bitcoin and crypto bank of the future. He looks at three stories reporting banks getting into crypto (BBVA, Standard Chartered and DBS) as well as crypto companies applying to become banks. Finally, he examines why this is happening right now, and what are the true stakes of the game.

Today on the Brief: FDA panel recommends Pfizer vaccine approval as initial jobless claims soar Antitrust lawsuit calls for Facebook breakup Crypto-friendly CFTC chairman to resign at the beginning of the year Our main discussion: Why MassMutual bought $100 million in bitcoin and why it matters. In this episode, NLW looks at recent news that MassMutual had purchased $100 million in bitcoin for its general account, as well as made a $5 million minority investment in $2.3 billion asset manager NYDIG, which helped facilitate the bitcoin purchase. He discusses why insurance company purchases are different than other institutional buyers like MicroStrategy, and why this might be the beginning of a more significant industry trend.

Hester Peirce is a commissioner at the Securities Exchange Commission, sworn in for her second term in August. Sometimes referred to as “Crypto Mom,” Peirce has been a fierce advocate for the industry in a regulatory context that hasn’t always been on her side. In this conversation, she and NLW discuss: Why the SEC’s approach on crypto has been too slow and too ambiguous Why it matters that FinHub is becoming a standalone office The prospect for a regulatory “safe harbor” for crypto What the SEC thinks of the OCC’s crypto custody guidance The prospect for a bitcoin ETF

What were the most important trends? Who were the most important people? Was it the year of Bitcoin Macro, the year of DeFi or both? Ryan Selkis is the founder and CEO of Messari. Each year he puts together a massive “Crypto Theses” report that looks at the year that was and the year to come. On this episode, he and NLW discuss the highlights of Selkis’ 2020 report, including: The top 10 people in crypto 2020 The bifurcation of bitcoin and ethereum How DeFi was and wasn’t like ICOs in 2017 Why regulatory battles loom

Today on the Brief: BBVA set to offer crypto trading and custody Wells Fargo discusses bitcoin in recent investor memo Square launches Bitcoin Clean Energy Initiative with $10 million Our main discussion: Michael Saylor is back at it. The CEO of MicroStrategy and Giga Chad himself announced MicroStrategy would be offering $400 million in convertible bonds with the intent to purchase more bitcoin. On this episode, NLW looks at the community’s reaction, including the comparison of MSTR stock to a BTC exchange-traded fund. He also discusses Saylor’s recent comments about censorship resistance as a reminder of the (potentially) divergent values of bitcoin retail HODLers and institutional investors.

Today on the Brief: COVID-19 vs. Stimulus Small hedge funds outperform large brethren Equities now worth 115% of global GDP Our main discussion: Why the newest trial of China’s central bank digital currency is its most important trial yet. In this episode, NLW discusses: The significance of the “Double 12” shopping festival How the participant merchants have changed Comparison of the size of the lottery Changes in public interest Why it matters to the crypto industry

On today’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Niall Ferguson’s latest Op-Ed for Bloomberg: “Bitcoin Is Winning the COVID-19 Monetary Revolution” In it, Ferguson argues that bitcoin’s sovereignty and “built-in scarcity in a virtual world characterized by boundless abundance” are driving its adoption. He also argues that rather than adopt a China-style central bank digital currency, incoming President Joe Biden should look to integrate bitcoin into the U.S. economic system.

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at the consolidating narrative of a bitcoin rally that is: Being driven by institutional investors Shifting the center of the industry from East Asia to North America Winning converts from major research houses and institutions Driving the price of bitcoin to new all-time highs

Today on the Brief: Payrolls report underperforms expectations Spotify looking for crypto director Lame-duck crypto legislation on the way? Our main discussion: Will we see a “Santa Claus rally” this year? This kind of rally refers to the fact that in about two-thirds of years since 1969, late December has seen a stock market rally, averaging a 1.4% gain. This year, vaccine optimism combined with new stimulus seems poised to once again jingle Wall Street’s bells. A piece in Bloomberg, however, provides five charts and reasons why this market rally is already overbought and overblown, so this year might be more coal than eggnog.

On Wednesday, three U.S. congressional Democrats announced the STABLE Act, an 18-page bill that would require, among other things, stablecoin issuers to acquire banking charters, get approval from the Federal Reserve and hold FDIC insurance. The bill’s authors claim stablecoins represent a continuation of the shadow banking system that preys on poor communities. The crypto industry argues this overly burdensome would not only stifle innovation but ensure the only players in this new space are the deep-pocketed fintechs with the resources for compliance. In today’s episode, NLW argues this is more than just another bill that will go nowhere in Congress, it’s the opening salvo of a new set of arguments that will define the next face of regulatory battles for the entire crypto industry.

Josh Brown is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He is also the host of “The Halftime Report” on CNBC, author of the “Reformed Broker” blog and host of “The Compound Show” podcast. Most recently, he is the author of “How I Invest My Money: Finance Experts Reveal How They Save, Spend, and Invest.” In this fun and freewheeling conversation, Josh and NLW discuss: Why financial advisers give a lot of advice but don’t actually share their personal strategies What’s driving bitcoin’s “respectability rally” (Read more here) Why we should be excited about, rather than worried for, the new generation of Robinhood traders Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to 100,000 in our lifetime Find our guest online: Twitter: @reformedbroker

Today on the Brief: Libra is now “Diem” Christine Lagarde comes down on private stablecoins Dow closes its best month in 33 years Our main discussion: AllianceBernstein changes its mind. Yesterday, CoinDesk received access to a private client research report from AllianceBernstein, a global investment giant with more than $631 billion in assets. In this episode of the Breakdown, NLW reads excerpts from the memo and discusses: Why, in discussing supply, it conflates bitcoin and other cryptos but still finds limited supply “for all practical purposes” Why prevailing macro political conditions – particularly the growth of government’s role in business and individual lives – shifted the investment firm’s calculus Why its greatest long-term concern is government banning something that is actively hindering the application of monetary policy

On this historic day, NLW looks at bitcoin’s punching through its previous December 2017 all-time high. Specifically, he looks at: How different people benchmark the all-time high What drove the latest price action, including the prospect of new investment from institutional asset management giant Guggenheim Why historian Niall Ferguson is arguing bitcoin has won the COVID-19 monetary revolution Why macro giants including Raoul Pal, George Gammon and Ben Hunt got into disagreements with Bitcoin Twitter about how co-opted by the state and Wall Street bitcoin is likely to become

On this edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads a recent piece by Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin. In it, Fang provides a set of valuation models and scenarios that plausibly lead to bitcoin achieving a significant $100,000 value over the course of 2021.

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at what was an absolutely action-packed holiday week. He discusses: Bitcoin’s price action The Dow’s 30,000 psychological milestone Eth 2.0 cleared for Beacon chain launch The implications of Janet Yellen’s nomination for Treasury secretary

One of the most significant macroeconomic questions facing the world is what the future of the global reserve system, dominated for the last 80 years by the U.S. dollar, holds. Today’s episode is a replay of NLW’s epic conversation with macro analyst Luke Gromen from April 2020. In it, Luke discusses the entire history of that U.S. dollar system, including: Bretton Woods and why the world went on a USD-based system rather than John Maynard Keynes’ idea for a non-sovereign “bancor” world reserve currency The move to the petrodollar in the 1970s The financialization of commodities that started in the 1980s The monetary policy vacuum after the Cold War ended How a shift in executive compensation rules led to many of today’s problems with Wall Street The export of Treasury bills as a business model The economic fallout of 2008 globally and domestically The end of Treasury bill buying in 2014 Why the Federal Reserve is the only sugar daddy left Find our guest online:Website: fftt-llc.comTwitter: @LukeGromen

When NLW asked Crypto Twitter for recommendations of the best way to convince friends and family about bitcoin and crypto, one of the ideas was to review old articles that have stood the test of time. With that in mind, NLW today reads Chamath Palihapitiya’s May 2013 piece for Bloomberg, “Why I Invested In Bitcoin.” Even among prescient early pieces, this one is particularly salient.

Today’s Breakdown is a prep kit for the inevitable conversations about bitcoin as friends and family sit down at the Thanksgiving table this year. NLW discusses arguments ranging from price action to who is buying to why they’re buying to good old-fashioned supply and demand. He leaves with one big conclusion: If there was ever a year to discuss bitcoin, this is it.

Today’s guest is Lyn Alden. Lyn is the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and one of today’s best-known and most-respected macro analysts. In this conversation, she and NLW discuss: Anti-deflation vs. inflation Why money printing is nonpartisan Why we’re headed for deeper MMT experiments How she increased her conviction around Bitcoin (her journey in memes) Why the beginnings of a new, post-Bretton Woods era are starting to show Find our guest online: Twitter: @LynAldenContact Website: lynalden.com

Today on the Brief: AstraZeneca and University of Oxford release third positive COVID-19 vaccine trial data Trump administration ratchets up pressure on China Another DCEP lottery trial coming Our main discussion: a narrative shift, growing attention and a bitcoin shortage. What happens when demand exceeds supply and supply is being gobbled up aggressively by new market actors? That’s the question posed by Pantera’s recent investor letter and today’s Breakdown episode. NLW also looks at: The reappearance of bitcoin (BTC, +1.08%) in mainstream media, like today’s Wall Street Journal The rise of celebrities coming out as HODLers BlackRock’s CIO suggests bitcoin could replace gold for many

On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads Joe Nocera’s recent Op-Ed “Clayton’s Exit at SEC Opens Door to Protect Investors” from Bloomberg. NLW expands upon the piece, discussing Clayton’s legacy in crypto and how a Biden economic team might impact the space.

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW discusses: Traditional markets: The tension between vaccine optimism and a growing national wave of economy-disrupting lockdowns Regulatory landscape: Crypto ally Brian Brooks nominated for full term at OCC while SEC Chair Jay Clayton steps down early Bitcoin Miners: Sold out until Spring Celebrities and Financiers coming to the Bitcoin space https://twitter.com/Maisie_Williams/status/1328428879334297600 https://twitter.com/RicardoBSalinas/status/1328850136290775041

Earlier this week, investor Nic Carter published a piece called “Nine Bitcoin Charts Already at All-Time Highs” showing just how far bitcoin had come and how fundamentally bullish this quiet run-up was. In this piece, NLW goes over those metrics that have achieved all-time highs, and adds one more that happened after Nic published his piece. The metrics include: Addresses with a balance of $10 or more Open interest on CME bitcoin futures Realized capitalization Bitcoin options open interest Bitcoin priced in Turkish lira Bitcoin held by Grayscale Stablecoin free float Silvergate’s settlement network Growth of crypto-native credit Market Capitalization

Today on the Brief: Markets fight to remain optimistic Jobless claims rise for the first time in five weeks China borrows at negative rates for the first time Our main discussion: a crypto ally as top bank regulator? Brian Brooks was an executive at Coinbase when he was tapped by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to be the number two at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the nation’s main bank regulator. Within two months he was acting Comptroller and now Brooks has been nominated for a full term. In his short tenure, he has given banks the OK to provide custody of crypto and banking services to stablecoin issuers. In so doing, he has aroused the ire of congressional Democrats, who have accused him of acting too quickly and unilaterally on crypto. In this discussion, NLW breaks down Brooks’ time at the OCC and asks whether he’s likely to be confirmed before the next administration early next year.

Vijay Boyapati’s “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin” is one of the most influential articles in the history of the industry – even being assigned reading from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor as he tried to convince his board on the merits of what would become its big bitcoin move. In this conversation with NLW, Vijay discusses his recent thinking around four valuation frameworks that help us understand 1) how people see bitcoin’s upside potential and 2) the likely values they suggest for bitcoin. We also discuss why state-level attacks are Vijay’s biggest concern for bitcoin’s future.

Today on the Brief: Tesla to join S&P 500 Airbnb files for IPO The Mooch wants crypto Our main discussion: HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO. The 2017-2018 bull run was driven by ICO mania and a relentless get-richism that was nothing if not short-term. As bitcoin passes $17,000 and questions of looming all-time highs start to make their way into mainstream press, it is a very new set of actors and a new set of thinking that is driving this movement.

Today on the Brief: Moderna trial success drives markets up New all-time high in negative-yielding debt Jay Clayton to leave SEC Our main discussion: BTC $318,000 in December 2021? That’s the prediction of one Citibank exec in a report called “Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold” sent last week to institutional clients. In this episode, NLW breaks down the report, including the macro justification that sets the stage as well as the technical analysis that led to these numbers. Ultimately, he argues that what matters isn’t the report’s predictions, but the fact that its very existence suggests a shifting narrative for institutional buyers.

On this week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads former IMF chief and current Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s latest Op-Ed, “The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm” in Project Syndicate.

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at bitcoin’s surge past $16,000. Additionally, he explores some recent FUD from Ray Dalio, which NLW argues seems strangely locked in years-old narratives.

Today on the Brief: Christine Lagarde’s digital euro hunch Deutsche Bank CBDC note COVID-19 resurgent Our main discussion: PayPal is rolling out crypto to all its users and increasing transaction limits from $10,000 to $20,000. In this episode, NLW breaks down the community response to the news, including an interesting discussion of whether the company’s BitLicense requires PayPal to hold 1:1 all the BTC its customers pay for.

Robby Gutmann is the co-founder of Stone Ridge Holdings Group, a $10 billion alternative asset manager and co-founder and CEO of NYDIG, the group’s bitcoin subsidiary. In this first-ever podcast conversation, Gutmann discusses: Buying his first bitcoin from Craigslist in 2010 The personal and professional experiences that drove his team to bitcoin Why bitcoin fits the firm's founding principle of financial security for all A set of key trends driving institutional investors and fiduciaries/asset managers into the bitcoin space Why the coming year is poised for even more aggressive expansion of the investor market for bitcoin

Yele Bademosi is CEO at Bundle social payments app and the founder of investment firm microtraction. Akin Sawyerr is involved across the industry and leads operations at BarnBridge. Over the course of October 2020, the world’s attention became firmly fixed on a growing movement in Nigeria. With the hashtag #EndSARS, the movement was, on the one hand, about addressing police brutality. On the other hand, as our guests discuss, it was a broader awakening and a demand for generational economic opportunity. At one point, even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey called for people to donate bitcoin to help the movement. In this conversation, Yele and Akin discuss: The state of the economy in Nigeria leading into the protests Generational differences in political action Why the #EndSARS protests exploded into action in October Why the movement turned to bitcoin to avoid bank confiscation How crypto can play a role in a brighter future Find our guests online: Yele Bademosi - twitter.com/YeleBademosi Akin Sawyerr - twitter.com/AkinSawyerr

Today on the Brief: Was Monday’s stock rally overdone? Lebanon to launch digital currency 3 reasons BTC has rallied 60%+ in two months Our main discussion: Stan Druckenmiller, Bitcoin Bull. A few months ago, Stan Druckenmiller told CNBC that he could imagine inflation of 5%–10%. Yesterday, he returned to the network to discuss why bitcoin had captured his attention as a potential hedge.

Today on the Brief: GRIN gets 51% attacked Crypto trading volume down 25.8% in October How the market is receiving Joe Biden Our main discussion: The stock market soars on promising Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials. The S&P 500 and DJIA hit new all-time highs after Pfizer announced its experimental vaccine had prevented COVID-19 in 90% of patients. Travel stocks soared, work from home stocks suffered and safe havens fell. In this episode, NLW explores the shifting market sentiment, as well as what it means for bitcoin.

Today’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of Andy Mukherjee’s piece: “Why Emerging Markets Are Wary of a Modern Monetary Fix”. The argument is that while Western governments debate just how far we can take the idea of money printing without paying a dubious price, for emerging-market governments there simply isn’t the same capacity to print their way out of problems.

Hany Rashwan is the CEO of Amun/21Shares, the creator of a variety of publicly traded crypto products with over $100 million assets under management. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: How he was introduced to bitcoin by Tim Draper in 2012 How the Egyptian revolution and challenges that followed influenced his thinking How a 48% overnight devaluation of the Egyptian pound created the “aha” moment around bitcoin How bitcoin could become the global reserve currency Find our guest online: Twitter: twitter.com/hany Website: 21shares.com

Emil Kalinowski is the host of “Making Sense/Eurodollar University” collaborations with Jeff Snider. In this illuminating conversation, he and NLW discuss: How the global monetary order changed over the last 50 years The exact moment the world demonstrated it had too little money Why bitcoin and MMT are competing to shape the next generation of monetary thinking Why a big crash is coming, but we’ll be better on the other side

As the U.S. election picture starts to become more clear, bitcoin has smashed through $15,000 – its highest price since 2017’s record-breaking run. Alongside the price action has come a wave of mainstream media coverage. In this special he-was-supposed-to-be-on-vacation episode, NLW breaks down Twitter’s response and shares interpretations, including: “Quietest bull run ever” Stimulus on the way Halving bull redemption Death of the nation-state Start of a reflexive cycle It feels real

Jim Epstein is the executive editor of Reason TV and podcasts, and the producer of the recent documentary “Cypherpunks Write Code.” In this conversation, he gives NLW a behind the scenes look on the interviews and conversations that went into the documentary, including how the cypherpunks started, schisms in the movement, and how the movement lives on today. Watch “Cypherpunks Write Code” Part 1: youtu.be/YWh6Yzr12iQ Part 2: youtu.be/n4qonsvSgAg Part 3: youtu.be/lv8OFSWZkGs Part 4: youtu.be/HDKQulqVCQg Find Jim online: twitter.com/jimepstein

Jacob Goldstein is one of the hosts of NPR’s Planet Money. He is also the author of the new book, “Money: A True Story of a Made Up Thing.” In this conversation, he and NLW discuss: How China invented paper money and then forgot about it for centuries Why the invention of the lightbulb was a pivotal money history moment How money market funds set the stage for the Great Financial Crisis Where bitcoin fits in the world that comes next: without cash, without banks and with government printing Find our guest online: Twitter: twitter.com/jacobgoldstein